State Senate Redistricting - District 29 (SD-29)

State Senate - District 29
Current Rep – Dave Hildenbrand (R-Grand Rapids)

2010 Results - Old District (29th)
Dave Hildenbrand - 41,042
David LaGrand - 36,830

This district was a big defense for us in 2010. It was the third major tough election here in a row. The new district picks up competitive East Grand Rapids and solidly GOP Ada Twp, Bowne Twp, Caledonia Twp, and Grand Rapids Twp. It drops competitive Kentwood (Bush and Obama voting) to the 26th district, and small solid GOP areas like Grattan Twp and Vergennes Twp to the 28th district.

The old district was about 50/50,going for Bush by less than 1% point. This district is slightly better, but still very difficult. Obama had almost a 20,000 vote spread, and Bush had a 6400 vote spread. Part of that swing is McCain bombing in West Michigan compared to Bush. The other part is Grand Rapids itself - 2/3 of the district - is becoming more and more minority (20% black and 15.5% Mexican). This is still a swing district much like the old one, and I expect Dave Hildenbrand to have a tough re-election campaign in 2014. That said, Bill Hardiman won this district twice and Hildenbrand won it once, so it is better for the GOP downticket than it is at the top of the ticket.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Kent County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4668	2965	7633	1703	61.16%	38.84%	22.31%
Bowne Twp	1257	476	1733	781	72.53%	27.47%	45.07%
Caledonia Twp	4492	2259	6751	2233	66.54%	33.46%	33.08%
Cascade Twp	6610	4176	10786	2434	61.28%	38.72%	22.57%
East Grand Rapids	3155	3753	6908	-598	45.67%	54.33%	-8.66%
Grand Rapids	28372	56146	84518	-27774	33.57%	66.43%	-32.86%
Grand Rapids Twp	5716	4185	9901	1531	57.73%	42.27%	15.46%
Lowell	921	915	1836	6	50.16%	49.84%	0.33%
Lowell Twp	1734	1244	2978	490	58.23%	41.77%	16.45%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	56925	76119	133044	-19194	42.79%	57.21%	-14.43%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Kent County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4933	2157	7090	2776	69.58%	30.42%	39.15%
Bowne Twp	1327	387	1714	940	77.42%	22.58%	54.84%
Caledonia Twp	4662	1570	6232	3092	74.81%	25.19%	49.61%
Cascade Twp	7254	3160	10414	4094	69.66%	30.34%	39.31%
East Grand Rapids	3807	3107	6914	700	55.06%	44.94%	10.12%
Grand Rapids	36115	45794	81909	-9679	44.09%	55.91%	-11.82%
Grand Rapids Twp	6349	3077	9426	3272	67.36%	32.64%	34.71%
Lowell	1072	701	1773	371	60.46%	39.54%	20.92%
Lowell Twp	1885	1047	2932	838	64.29%	35.71%	28.58%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	67404	61000	128404	6404	52.49%	47.51%	4.99%
Last St Senate	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Kent County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bowne Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Caledonia Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Cascade Twp	5941	2185	8126	3756	73.11%	26.89%	46.22%
East Grand Rapids	1	1	2	0	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
Grand Rapids	21957	27357	49314	-5400	44.52%	55.48%	-10.95%
Grand Rapids Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Lowell	791	350	1141	441	69.33%	30.67%	38.65%
Lowell Twp	1578	539	2117	1039	74.54%	25.46%	49.08%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	30268	30432	60700	-164	49.86%	50.14%	-0.27%

MI-03 - Terri Lynn Land not running for Congress (Nor is Zandstra)

There's a lot of speculation going on with the open 3rd district race. So far, the only announced candidate is State Rep. Justin Amash. Some speculation centered on Terri Lynn Land, but that was shot down quickly.From Grand Rapids Press

Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is not going to run for the Congressional seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers, a spokesman said today. "Right now, she's focused on being part of Mike Bouchard's team for governor," spokesperson Matt Golden said.
Land, a Kent County Republican, who is term-limited as Secretary of State, committed last fall to being Oakland County Sheriff's gubernatorial running mate.

Also according to the Western  Right blog, Jerry Zandstra is not running either. State Rep Dave Agema endorsed his colleague Amash.

Three names I keep hearing are Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, and Bill Hardiman. Hardiman got a LOT of establishment support when he ran for State Senate in 2002, but will that transfer to Congress.since a lot of people have their eye on this spot.

Interestingly, there's already a poll from John Yob. Thanks to John for releasing this. From Grand Rapids Press

GOP strategist John Yob did a quick telephone poll of 1,230 likely GOP primary voters Tuesday evening when it became apparent U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers would resign his seat. Here's what his "snapshot" of the "starting gate" showed: Possible candidate: (Voters) Percentage
Bill Hardiman: (229) 19%
Ken Sikkema: (163) 13%
Terri Lynn Land: (151) 12%
Dave Hildenbrand: (129) 10%
Mark Jansen: (90) 8%
Justin Amash: (81) 7%
Brian Calley: (67) 5%
Kevin Green: (33) 3%
Jerry Zandstra: (27) 2%
Undecided: (252) 20%

Terri Land and Jerry Zandstra can be taken off the list. Dave Hildenbrand has announced for Hardiman's old State Senate seat, the 29th. Dave's a sharp guy, going back to his days with Posthumus. He's got a tough district, but if anyone can win there, he can. Does he switch races by finishing fourth in Yob's poll? I think it depends on who jumps in.

Interestingly, nobody from Ionia County was in the poll. I'd watch for geography to factor in this race. Ionia and Barry Counties, Grand Rapids itself. Eastern burbs (Kentwood, Lowell), Western Burbs (Grandville, Wyoming, Walker), and the Northern and Southern more rural areas. I'll almost bet money that the democrat running will be from Grand Rapids itself.

It'll be interesting to watch.