State House Redistricting - District 110 (HD-110)

State House - District 110
Current Rep - Matt Huuki (R - Atlantic Mine)

Candidates:
GOP - Matt Huuki  (R - Atlantic mine)
Dem - Scott Dianda (D-Calumet)

Update 5-27-2012 - Dianda wants a rematch, but has to get past Lucius. This is a swing district.

Update 8-30-2012 - Dianda gets his rematch.

Old District (110th)
Matt Huuki - 16,031
Scott Dianda - 12,814

This district is a swing district which leans democrat. The GOP almost took it in 2000, but the dems kept it easily most years until the 2010 massacre Up North. The district is unchanged outside of picking up Ishpeming Township in Marquette County which makes this seat more democrat. There is some republican strength in Houghton and some democrat strength in Gogebic (Ironwood) and Iron (Iron River) Counties. Iron County is starting to change, although Ironwood is still very strongly yellow dog and Joe Mack country.

The dems have held this district for more years than I can remember. It will be one of our toughest defenses in 2012 with the yellow dog tradition in much of this district, along with Gogebic County still being a stronghold of the dems, and Iron County which was a stronghold until recently. The rest of the counties have gone dem at different times as well.

If the GOP didn't have an incumbent, I'd call this leans dem.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Baraga County	1846	1725	3571	121	51.69%	48.31%	3.39%
Gogebic County	3330	4757	8087	-1427	41.18%	58.82%	-17.65%
Houghton County	8101	7476	15577	625	52.01%	47.99%	4.01%
Iron County	2947	3080	6027	-133	48.90%	51.10%	-2.21%
Keweenaw County	756	610	1366	146	55.34%	44.66%	10.69%
Ontonagon County	1823	1966	3789	-143	48.11%	51.89%	-3.77%
Marquette County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ishpeming Twp	763	1163	1926	-400	39.62%	60.38%	-20.77%
Powell Twp	211	257	468	-46	45.09%	54.91%	-9.83%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	19777	21034	40811	-1257	48.46%	51.54%	-3.08%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Baraga County	1977	1660	3637	317	54.36%	45.64%	8.72%
Gogebic County	3935	4421	8356	-486	47.09%	52.91%	-5.82%
Houghton County	8889	6731	15620	2158	56.91%	43.09%	13.82%
Iron County	3224	3215	6439	9	50.07%	49.93%	0.14%
Keweenaw County	781	630	1411	151	55.35%	44.65%	10.70%
Ontonagon County	2262	1863	4125	399	54.84%	45.16%	9.67%
Marquette County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ishpeming Twp	845	1010	1855	-165	45.55%	54.45%	-8.89%
Powell Twp	244	264	508	-20	48.03%	51.97%	-3.94%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	22157	19794	41951	2363	52.82%	47.18%	5.63%
Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Baraga County	1550	1090	2640	460	58.71%	41.29%	17.42%
Gogebic County	2572	2711	5283	-139	48.68%	51.32%	-2.63%
Houghton County	7007	5157	12164	1850	57.60%	42.40%	15.21%
Iron County	2389	2028	4417	361	54.09%	45.91%	8.17%
Keweenaw County	632	477	1109	155	56.99%	43.01%	13.98%
Ontonagon County	1731	1177	2908	554	59.53%	40.47%	19.05%
Marquette County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ishpeming Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Powell Twp	148	174	322	-26	45.96%	54.04%	-8.07%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	16029	12814	28843	3215	55.57%	44.43%	11.15%

State House Redistricting - District 108 (HD-108)

State House - District 108
Current Rep - Ed McBroom (R - Vulcan)

Candidates:
GOP - Ed McBroom (R-Vulcan)
Dem - Sharon Gray (D-Rapid River)


Update 5-27-2012 - Nerat wants a rematch, but will she get a chance for it?

Update 8-30-2012 - No rematch. Nerat lost to Gray in the primary.

Old District (108th)
Ed McBroom - 17,734
Judy Nerat - 11,870

This district remains unchanged by redistricting. It covers Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta Counties in the UP. It's a swing district which has flipped twice in the last decade. The GOP took it from the dems in an upset back in 2002, and lost it in 2008 to Judy Nerat, who was crushed in 2010. It was 2010, so I'm considering that an aberration. Nerat crushed the GOP for the open seat in 2008.

Obama did very well in this district in 08, much as he did in Northern Wisconsin. This part of Michigan is Green Bay Packers Country. Escanaba and Menominee are actually on Green Bay. There's more ties to Wisconsin here culturally than there is to lower Michigan. Both Northern Wisconsin and North Michigan heavily rebelled against the dems two years later in a case of anti-overreach.

Dickinson County (Kingsford/Iron Mtn) is more Republican than the rest of the district. Delta (Escanaba/Gladstone) and Menominee are swing counties in the truest sense. They voted for Bush twice and Obama, as well as Casperson, Nerat, and McBroom. Historically these counties have been labor democrat strongholds, especially Delta County. This district is one to watch in 2012. The counties here have moved away some from their historical democrat roots, but they are still very winnable for the dems if they aren't cultural leftists. This is Stupak's home area. It's also Dan Benishek's top area, and right next to his home county (Iron).

This is going to be a district to watch for a long time.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Delta County	8763	9974	18737	-1211	46.77%	53.23%	-6.46%
Dickinson County	7049	5995	13044	1054	54.04%	45.96%	8.08%
Menominee County	4855	5981	10836	-1126	44.80%	55.20%	-10.39%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	20667	21950	42617	-1283	48.49%	51.51%	-3.01%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Delta County	9680	9381	19061	299	50.78%	49.22%	1.57%
Dickinson County	7734	5650	13384	2084	57.79%	42.21%	15.57%
Menominee County	5942	5326	11268	616	52.73%	47.27%	5.47%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	23356	20357	43713	2999	53.43%	46.57%	6.86%
Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Delta County	7431	5571	13002	1860	57.15%	42.85%	14.31%
Dickinson County	6341	3038	9379	3303	67.61%	32.39%	35.22%
Menominee County	3962	3261	7223	701	54.85%	45.15%	9.71%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	17734	11870	29604	5864	59.90%	40.10%	19.81%

State House Redistricting - District 107 (HD-107)

State House - District 107
Current Rep - Frank Foster (R - Petoskey)

Candidates:
GOP - Frank Foster (R-Petoskey)
Dem -  Suzanne Shumway (D-Petoskey)

Update 8-30-2012 - Shumway won the primary for the dems. That could be a geographic break for Foster since his opponent isn't a yooper.

Old District (107th)
Frank Foster - 19,337
Richard Timmer - 11,350

This is one of four districts based in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This is the only one of the four which has both trolls and yoopers living in the district. Surprisingly, the current rep is from below the bridge, Frank Foster. Usually this district has supported yoopers. This is a swing district that leans republican on paper. It's switch parties every time it has opened recently. While the two yooper counties are historically more republican than most of the rest of the UP, it's still very winnable for democrats. Gary McDowell had no problems winning this areas as a state rep. 2010 was an awful year for democrats in North Michigan including the UP. 2012 remains to be seen.

The old district covers Chippewa and Mackinac Counties in the eastern UP.  It covers Emmet County, a normally GOP base county, in the northern lower penninsula, and covered Tuscaraoa Twp and Koehler Twp in Cheboygan County. It picks up more of Cheboygan County to the point where the district is now about half troll and half yooper in terms of number of voters. The power will still likely be with the yoopers who are much more likely to vote for their own, while trolls are less apt to care which side of the bridge, and only if you are a townie and not a recent transplant.

While McCain won the district, that's not the ceiling for the democrat vote here. Gary McDowell with the help of the NRA and Farm Bureau took the district in 2004 by 3000 votes despite Bush getting almost 58% of the 2 party vote and a 6800 vote spread.This is a conservative district, but not necessarily a republican district.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Chippewa County	8267	8184	16451	83	50.25%	49.75%	0.50%
Emmet County	9314	8515	17829	799	52.24%	47.76%	4.48%
Mackinac County	3268	3027	6295	241	51.91%	48.09%	3.83%
Cheboygan County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Beaugrand Twp	329	321	650	8	50.62%	49.38%	1.23%
Cheboygan	944	1037	1981	-93	47.65%	52.35%	-4.69%
Hebron Twp	57	92	149	-35	38.26%	61.74%	-23.49%
Koehler Twp	299	263	562	36	53.20%	46.80%	6.41%
Mackinac Twp	195	175	370	20	52.70%	47.30%	5.41%
Munro Twp	181	236	417	-55	43.41%	56.59%	-13.19%
Tuscaroa Twp	922	837	1759	85	52.42%	47.58%	4.83%
Total	23776	22687	46463	1089	51.17%	48.83%	2.34%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Chippewa County	9122	7203	16325	1919	55.88%	44.12%	11.75%
Emmet County	10332	6846	17178	3486	60.15%	39.85%	20.29%
Mackinac County	3706	2819	6525	887	56.80%	43.20%	13.59%
Cheboygan County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Beaugrand Twp	382	283	665	99	57.44%	42.56%	14.89%
Cheboygan	1233	906	2139	327	57.64%	42.36%	15.29%
Hebron Twp	77	64	141	13	54.61%	45.39%	9.22%
Koehler Twp	340	207	547	133	62.16%	37.84%	24.31%
Mackinac Twp	222	165	387	57	57.36%	42.64%	14.73%
Munro Twp	215	196	411	19	52.31%	47.69%	4.62%
Tuscaroa Twp	1067	728	1795	339	59.44%	40.56%	18.89%
Total	26696	19417	46113	7279	57.89%	42.11%	15.79%
	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Chippewa County	6397	5079	11476	1318	55.74%	44.26%	11.48%
Emmet County	8852	4070	12922	4782	68.50%	31.50%	37.01%
Mackinac County	2907	1701	4608	1206	63.09%	36.91%	26.17%
Cheboygan County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Beaugrand Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Cheboygan			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Hebron Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Koehler Twp	238	109	347	129	68.59%	31.41%	37.18%
Mackinac Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Munro Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Tuscaroa Twp	943	391	1334	552	70.69%	29.31%	41.38%
Total	19337	11350	30687	7987	63.01%	36.99%	26.03%

State House Redistricting - District 106 (HD-106)

State House - District 106
Current Rep - Peter Petallia (R - Presque Isle)

Candidates:
GOP - Peter Petallia - (R-Presque Isle)
Dem - Kenneth Hubbard (D-Alpena)

Update 8-30-2012 - Kenneth Hubbard won the dem primary.

Old District (106th)
Peter Petallia - 18,096
Casey Viegelahn - 11,744


This district was held by the dems for 18 years until the 2010 election. It was close on several occasions, but Alpena leans democrat, more so locally than at the top of the ticket. I think Peter Petallia was forced to take one for the team here. I think this may be our 2nd toughest defense. I don't like what they did to this district at all. This is a toss-up district I think in 2012. I think the dems will likely get it back when Petallia is termed out if he hangs on for two more terms. I think McCain took the old district, but Obama took the new one. Dems are stronger downticket here than they are at the top of the ticket too, which makes it harder here.

The old district covered Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties. It picks up part of Cheboygan County (not bad), and Iosco County (Bad bad bad). It drops Crawford, Montmorency, and Oscoda Counties (worse). Presque Isle and Alpena have rather strong downticket democrat leanings. Iosco County does as well. Alcona leans to the right, as does most of Cheboygan County. Dropping the three leaning GOP counties eliminates just about any breathing room whatsoever. Petallia actually won Alpena County in 2010, although he lost Presque Isle County, albeit barely. Winning Alpena County is big, and if he does that again in 2012, he'll survive this district. Petallia ran in 08 against a strong former 2 term rep in Andy Neumann. I included that race as well.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alcona County	3404	2896	6300	508	54.03%	45.97%	8.06%
Alpena County	7125	7705	14830	-580	48.04%	51.96%	-3.91%
Iosco County	6583	7309	13892	-726	47.39%	52.61%	-5.23%
Presque Isle County	3606	3722	7328	-116	49.21%	50.79%	-1.58%
Cheboygan County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Aloha Twp	314	254	568	60	55.28%	44.72%	10.56%
Benton Twp	926	876	1802	50	51.39%	48.61%	2.77%
Burt Twp	298	198	496	100	60.08%	39.92%	20.16%
Ellis Twp	151	118	269	33	56.13%	43.87%	12.27%
Forest Twp	211	267	478	-56	44.14%	55.86%	-11.72%
Grant Twp	236	287	523	-51	45.12%	54.88%	-9.75%
Inverness Twp	598	661	1259	-63	47.50%	52.50%	-5.00%
Mentor Twp	229	182	411	47	55.72%	44.28%	11.44%
Mullett Twp	447	327	774	120	57.75%	42.25%	15.50%
Nunda Twp	220	234	454	-14	48.46%	51.54%	-3.08%
Walker Twp	57	73	130	-16	43.85%	56.15%	-12.31%
Waverly Twp	115	125	240	-10	47.92%	52.08%	-4.17%
Wilmot Twp	191	157	348	34	54.89%	45.11%	9.77%
Total	24711	25391	50102	-680	49.32%	50.68%	-1.36%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alcona County	3592	2871	6463	721	55.58%	44.42%	11.16%
Alpena County	7665	7407	15072	258	50.86%	49.14%	1.71%
Iosco County	7301	6557	13858	744	52.68%	47.32%	5.37%
Presque Isle County	3982	3432	7414	550	53.71%	46.29%	7.42%
Cheboygan County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Aloha Twp	328	224	552	104	59.42%	40.58%	18.84%
Benton Twp	986	747	1733	239	56.90%	43.10%	13.79%
Burt Twp	300	196	496	104	60.48%	39.52%	20.97%
Ellis Twp	170	122	292	48	58.22%	41.78%	16.44%
Forest Twp	236	289	525	-53	44.95%	55.05%	-10.10%
Grant Twp	295	281	576	14	51.22%	48.78%	2.43%
Inverness Twp	638	534	1172	104	54.44%	45.56%	8.87%
Mentor Twp	224	191	415	33	53.98%	46.02%	7.95%
Mullett Twp	438	317	755	121	58.01%	41.99%	16.03%
Nunda Twp	254	207	461	47	55.10%	44.90%	10.20%
Walker Twp	62	57	119	5	52.10%	47.90%	4.20%
Waverly Twp	138	118	256	20	53.91%	46.09%	7.81%
Wilmot Twp	193	129	322	64	59.94%	40.06%	19.88%
Total	26802	23679	50481	3123	53.09%	46.91%	6.19%
Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alcona County	2866	1438	4304	1428	66.59%	33.41%	33.18%
Alpena County	5563	4151	9714	1412	57.27%	42.73%	14.54%
Iosco County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Presque Isle County	2489	2494	4983	-5	49.95%	50.05%	-0.10%
Cheboygan County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Aloha Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Benton Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Burt Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ellis Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Forest Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grant Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Inverness Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Mentor Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Mullett Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Nunda Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Walker Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waverly Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Wilmot Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	10918	8083	19001	2835	57.46%	42.54%	14.92%
2008 St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alcona County	3037	3046	6083	-9	49.93%	50.07%	-0.15%
Alpena County	6824	7809	14633	-985	46.63%	53.37%	-6.73%
Iosco County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Presque Isle County	2989	4196	7185	-1207	41.60%	58.40%	-16.80%
Cheboygan County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Aloha Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Benton Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Burt Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ellis Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Forest Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grant Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Inverness Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Mentor Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Mullett Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Nunda Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Walker Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waverly Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Wilmot Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	12850	15051	27901	-2201	46.06%	53.94%	-7.89%

State House Redistricting - District 105 (HD-105)

State House - District 105
Current Rep - Greg MacMaster (R - Kewadin)

Candidate:
GOP - Greg MacMaster (R-Kewadin)
Dem - Willim Wieske (D-Gaylord)

Old District (105th)
Greg MacMaster - 25,907
Greg Dean - 10,702

This district was and still is probably the safest in North Michigan for the Republicans, and the 2nd safest overall besides the Marquette district. The old district covered Charlevoix, Otsego, Antrim, and part of Cheboygan County. It drops Cheboygan County and picks up Montmorency and Oscoda Counties. I think this is a very poor district, possibly helping concede the 106th.

Otsego and Antrim Counties are base counties and carry the day. The rest of the areas if aren't safe republican, strongly lean that way. The only exception is against someone like a Bart Stupak.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Antrim County	7506	6079	13585	1427	55.25%	44.75%	10.50%
Charlevoix County	7306	6817	14123	489	51.73%	48.27%	3.46%
Montmorency County	2841	2403	5244	438	54.18%	45.82%	8.35%
Oscoda County	2320	1887	4207	433	55.15%	44.85%	10.29%
Otsego County	6752	5634	12386	1118	54.51%	45.49%	9.03%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	26725	22820	49545	3905	53.94%	46.06%	7.88%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Antrim County	8379	5072	13451	3307	62.29%	37.71%	24.59%
Charlevoix County	8214	5729	13943	2485	58.91%	41.09%	17.82%
Montmorency County	3300	2196	5496	1104	60.04%	39.96%	20.09%
Oscoda County	2570	1792	4362	778	58.92%	41.08%	17.84%
Otsego County	7470	4674	12144	2796	61.51%	38.49%	23.02%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	29933	19463	49396	10470	60.60%	39.40%	21.20%
Last St House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Antrim County	7060	3006	10066	4054	70.14%	29.86%	40.27%
Charlevoix County	7085	2862	9947	4223	71.23%	28.77%	42.46%
Montmorency County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Oscoda County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Otsego County	6067	2408	8475	3659	71.59%	28.41%	43.17%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	20212	8276	28488	11936	70.95%	29.05%	41.90%

State House Redistricting - District 104 (HD-104)

State House - District 104
Current Rep - Wayne Schmidt (R - Traverse City)

Candidates:
GOP - Wayne Schmidt  (R-Traverse City)
Dem - Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City)

Update 5-27-2012 - The leader and publisher of Right Michigan is challenging the incumbent. Jason Gillman is going after Wayne Schmidt. Gillman's also a county commissioner up there, so he's more than just an internet activist. This will be interesting to see.

Update - 8-30-2012  - Schmidt beat a spirited challenge from Jason Gillman. Coffa won the democrat primary.

Old District (104th)
Wayne Schmidt - 23,460
John Scrudato - 10,950


This district shrunk due to population growth in Grand Traverse County. It drops Kalkaska County to the 103rd. This district is for now safe republican, but keep an eye on the suburbs of Traverse City to see if it is still the case in ten years with the transplants. The city leans democrat, although not as much as it's reputation (Ann Arbor North it isn't). It's not impossible for the GOP to win the city. The suburbs are generally safe for the GOP. McCain won the district, and nobody downticket has had problems here recently.

Grand Traverse County	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
2008 Presidential	24716	23258	47974	1458	51.52%	48.48%	3.04%
2004 Presidential	27446	18256	45702	9190	60.05%	39.95%	20.11%
Last St House	19823	9493	29316	10330	67.62%	32.38%	35.24%

State House Redistricting - District 103 (HD-103)

State House - District 103
Current Rep - Bruce Rendon (R - Lake City)

Candidates:
GOP - Bruce Rendon (R-Lake City)
Dem - Lon Johnson (D-Grayling)

Update - 5-27-2012 - Did Rendon tick off people in Ogemaw County? Three challengers are from there, along with Grayling's Lon Johnson was placed in the new district from redistricting. I'm still calling this a tossup due to tradition, although I don't see that Sheltrown name this time.

Update 8-30-2012 - Rendon and Johnson won their primaries easily. 

Old District (103rd)
Bruce Rendon - 19,930
Van Sheltrown - 11,958
 
I consider an 8000 vote spread against a Sheltrown an aberration. I know Van isn't Joel or Dale, but the dems were massacred in districts like the old 103rd  in 2010. Bigtime. Redistricting changed this district a bit making it more friendly to Republicans, although I can't call it safe. It also may have conceded the 106th which I think is an absolutely awfully drawn district. I'd rather have had a district similar to the old 103rd which is tough but winnable since Joel and Dale Sheltrown are termed out. Joel and Dale dominated the district. Van was blasted. Either he didn't sell, or it was just a bad year. I think Joel would have survived a 2010.

Bruce Rendon ran in 2004 for the open seat and lost to Joel Sheltrown despite Bush winning the district by a good margin. There's no shame in that. The old district covered Iosco, Roscommon, Ogemaw, and Missaukee Counties. Iosco, Roscommon, and Ogemaw are swing counties with slight "Barcia democrat" leanings. Missaukee County is the 2nd most Republican county in the state by percentage, except that it voted for Joel Sheltrown twice. The new district dropped Iosco county and replaced it with Crawford and Kalkaska counties which lean Republican but occasionally support Stupak type democrats. Kalkaska is a very rural area between Acme/Traverse City and Grayling. Crawford County, also very rural, is Grayling and Frederic and known for Camp Grayling and fishing/canoeing with the Au Sable River. The general area district (Ogemaw County area, not Crawford) was held by democrats for at least 18 years before Rendon finally won it. That's despite McCain winning the old district. Obama's numbers aren't the ceiling here. Barcia and Stupak run much better.

I included the 2004 numbers which was Rendon vs Joel Sheltrown. If the dems have another candidate on that level, they have a shot at this one in 2012. As such, I'm still considering this a swing district despite Kalkaska and Crawford Counties being better for downticket Republicans. There's a good dem base in Skidway Lake and St Helen, along with many other swing voters throughout the whole district.

 I'm keeping a close eye on this one.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Crawford County	3561	3441	7002	120	50.86%	49.14%	1.71%
Kalkaska County	4527	3780	8307	747	54.50%	45.50%	8.99%
Missaukee County	4469	2898	7367	1571	60.66%	39.34%	21.32%
Ogemaw County	5133	5391	10524	-258	48.77%	51.23%	-2.45%
Roscommon County	6727	7082	13809	-355	48.71%	51.29%	-2.57%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	24417	22592	47009	1825	51.94%	48.06%	3.88%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Crawford County	4017	3126	7143	891	56.24%	43.76%	12.47%
Kalkaska County	5084	3189	8273	1895	61.45%	38.55%	22.91%
Missaukee County	5055	2319	7374	2736	68.55%	31.45%	37.10%
Ogemaw County	5454	5215	10669	239	51.12%	48.88%	2.24%
Roscommon County	7364	6810	14174	554	51.95%	48.05%	3.91%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	26974	20659	47633	6315	56.63%	43.37%	13.26%
Last St House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Crawford County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Kalkaska County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Missaukee County	4006	1198	5204	2808	76.98%	23.02%	53.96%
Ogemaw County	4348	3112	7460	1236	58.28%	41.72%	16.57%
Roscommon County	6060	3662	9722	2398	62.33%	37.67%	24.67%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	14414	7972	22386	6442	64.39%	35.61%	28.78%
2004 St House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Crawford County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Kalkaska County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Missaukee County	4772	2468	7240	2304	65.91%	34.09%	31.82%
Ogemaw County	3613	6908	10521	-3295	34.34%	65.66%	-31.32%
Roscommon County	6026	7873	13899	-1847	43.36%	56.64%	-13.29%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	14411	17249	31660	-2838	45.52%	54.48%	-8.96%