Congressional District 3 - Updated 2014 (MI-03)

2014 Update:
Brian Ellis is challenging Justin Amash in the primary. Ellis is running as an establishment social conservative attacking Amash on his abortion and 2nd Amendment votes. Bob Goodrich is a dem sacrificial lamb candidate. The primary could be quite interesting. Amash has a major following, but a lot of detractors as well.

MI-03 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

Incumbent – Justin Amash (R-Cascade Twp)

Years in office as of 2014 election - 4.

Challengers – Brian Ellis (R-Grand Rapids), Bob Goodrich (D-Kentwood)

2012:

Justin Amash – 171675 – 52.62%

Steve Pestka – 144108 – 44.17%

27567 vote difference

Romney – 177789 votes – 53.12%

Obama – 153081 votes – 45.74%

29325 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 170694 votes – 48.60%

Obama – 174464 votes – 49.67%

-3770 vote difference

2004:

Bush – 193901 votes – 57.04%

Kerry – 141555 votes – 41.64%

38808 vote difference

Some pundits that don’t know Michigan always claim that Grand Rapids is the capital of “Republican West Michigan.” That’s not true (Ottawa County is). That hasn’t been true in a long time, if it was even true to begin with. The big Kent County strength of the GOP is in the suburbs. 2/3 of the vote in this district is in Kent County. Redistricting took two of the marginal suburbs out and into the MI-02. However, tougher Calhoun county was added instead. Barry and Ionia Counties are solidly GOP and added. Montcalm County’s Eureka Twp was also added.

A lot of work needs to be done here. In order for Michigan to be competitive statewide again, we need to at least get this back to the Bush numbers in Calhoun, Ionia, and Barry Counties, and better than that in Kent County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code.

70%+Dem – Black

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – White

Top of the ticket R’s have taken a beating here compared to the old days. Kent County used to be a 60%+ county for years. Bush was held under 60% twice, winning by about 54,000 (countywide) both times. McCain lost Kent County completely along with the district. That was a disaster. He quit. Michigan hates quitters. Aberration. Romney was held to 53 and won by 17000 in Kent County. Bush had 58% and won by over twice that. Districtwide, Bush won with 57% and had twice what Romney had in the vote spread.

Kent County is 2/3 of the district. Romney recovered some from  McCain’s cratering here, but he did get less votes than him in Lowell. He also only got 400 more votes than him in Grand Rapids. Obama lost ground there, but here’s a comparison. Romney 28772 (35.73%), McCain 28372 (33.00%), Bush 36115 (43.61%). Bush ran about 7000 votes higher in outer Kent County (within the district) than Romney. There’s your main difference in the district.  The only reliable democrat area in the county is the City of Grand Rapids (and arguably now Kentwood in MI-02).

To the east is Ionia County which is between Lansing and Grand Rapids along I-96. It’s most known for the prison. It’s a base R county, although Bush did significantly better here than Romney and especially McCain. McCain was held to a 1500 vote spread. Romney 3300. Bush 6000. North Plains Township is the only area that went D the last three presidential elections, although Obama took Belding and Ionia twice (Bush won it). I’m not sure what’s significant about that area to make it so dem. Bush made it close and lost it by 25 votes. Romney lost it by 89 and McCain 128. Alamingly, Romney had only 150 more raw votes than McCain in the county even though he got 55.57% here to McCain’s 51.64%. Bush got over 60%. Romney had less votes in Belding, Boston Twp, Ionia, Ionia Twp (still flipped it from 08), Odessa Twp, and Orange Twp than McCain despite his percentages being better than McCain in all of them.  Portland on the east is closer to Lansing than Grand Rapids, so this area is influenced by two other areas.

Southwest of Ionia County is Barry County. It’s the county that is the crossroads of several cities in Michigan. Lansing to Kalamazoo/Battle Creek. Grand Rapids to Jackson. It’s usually a base R county. Bush got 59.51% here. McCain cratered here like most of West Michigan getting 53.75%, but Romney in percentage recovered most of it getting 58.41% here. However, Romney still only got 230 more votes than McCain. Obama just lost 2000 votes. McCain had more raw votes in Assyria twp, Castleton Twp, Hastings, Johnstown Twp, Maple Grove Twp, Orangeville Twp, Prairieville Twp, and Yankee Springs Twp. Hastings is quite alarming as Bush won it with 55.72% and Obama won it twice. This is a key county where we need to do well in order to win statewide.

To the South is Calhoun County, a quintessential swing county along the I-94 corridor. It voted for Gore narrowly, Bush narrowly, and Obama twice, narrowly the 2^nd time. It voted for dem Mark Schauer several times, but followed up with Mike Nofs, a moderate republican (Social conservative, pro-union) several times. It voted for Granholm and Mike Cox (over Gary Peters) in the same election back in 2002. To say that this is a key county is an understatement. Bush won the county by 2200 votes (51.21%) in 2004. 32093 votes to Kerry’s 29891. In 2004, McCain got 28553 and lost the county by 6000 votes. Obama had less votes than John Kerry the 2^nd time, but Romney had less votes than McCain. Obama won the 2^nd time by 934 votes (50.18%). Romney only had 28333 votes. That is not a recipe for victory – even as he ran 4% ahead of McCain.

There’s two major democrat areas in Calhoun County. Battle Creek and vicinity is the most well known (and Springfield/Bedford Twp might as well be Battle Creek). Battle Creek is democrat but not to the extent of many other core Michigan cities. Kerry only had 52.66% here. Nofs has won it in the past. Obama got 60.20% and later 57.72%, which is fairly high for the city. Bush got 46.60%, Romney 41.29%. Springfield is more dem than Battle Creek which is somewhat surprisingly since its whiter. Bush came within 3 votes of winning Bedford Twp. The big problem from a per capita standpoint is Albion. Albion is forgotten and much smaller, but the dems in 2004 had a bigger vote spread there (-1278) than Battle Creek (-1269). Kerry got 70.11% there, and Obama 77.39% and 75.80%. Blacks, unions, and Albion college. Marshall is competitive and leans slightly R. Most of the rural areas here are solidly R. They help counter Albion/Battle creek and make this a competitive county.

Overall this district leans R. Amash ran similar to Romney, so he probably has this district unless someone strong primaries him. That is unless we get another wave year like 2008. The key in this district is to drive up the vote in the Kent County suburbs, get Bush numbers in Calhoun, Ionia, and Barry Counties, and to stop the bleeding in Grand Rapids. 

District 3
	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Barry County:
Assyria Twp	608	344	967	264	62.87%	35.57%
Baltimore Twp	512	355	879	157	58.25%	40.39%
Barry Twp	970	707	1708	263	56.79%	41.39%
Carlton Twp	734	469	1216	265	60.36%	38.57%
Castleton Twp	684	591	1289	93	53.06%	45.85%
Hastings	1453	1520	3020	-67	48.11%	50.33%
Hastings Twp	783	584	1383	199	56.62%	42.23%
Hope Twp	841	673	1540	168	54.61%	43.70%
Irving Twp	1049	496	1562	553	67.16%	31.75%
Johnstown Twp	844	625	1482	219	56.95%	42.17%
Maple Grove Twp	411	249	669	162	61.43%	37.22%
Orangeville Twp	806	691	1532	115	52.61%	45.10%
Prairieville Twp	922	826	1769	96	52.12%	46.69%
Rutland Twp	1207	841	2068	366	58.37%	40.67%
Thornapple Twp	2662	1233	3938	1429	67.60%	31.31%
Woodland Twp	649	419	1078	230	60.20%	38.87%
Yankee Springs Twp	1520	871	2412	649	63.02%	36.11%
Total	16655	11494	28512	5161	58.41%	40.31%
Calhoun County
Albion	684	2233	2946	-1549	23.22%	75.80%
Albion Twp	293	245	548	48	53.47%	44.71%
Athens twp	681	448	1147	233	59.37%	39.06%
Battle Creek	8574	11984	20764	-3410	41.29%	57.72%
Bedford Twp	2093	2201	4361	-108	47.99%	50.47%
Burlington Twp	515	348	880	167	58.52%	39.55%
Clarence Twp	601	368	985	233	61.02%	37.36%
Clarendon Twp	309	179	500	130	61.80%	35.80%
Convis Twp	437	286	731	151	59.78%	39.12%
Eckord Twp	492	234	734	258	67.03%	31.88%
Emmett Twp	2818	2330	5218	488	54.01%	44.65%
Fredonia Twp	504	312	835	192	60.36%	37.37%
Homer Twp	591	436	1041	155	56.77%	41.88%
Lee Twp	330	181	519	149	63.58%	34.87%
Leroy Twp	1354	774	2152	580	62.92%	35.97%
Marengo Twp	613	361	990	252	61.92%	36.46%
Marshall	1751	1621	3418	130	51.23%	47.43%
Marshall twp	1042	673	1732	369	60.16%	38.86%
Newton Twp	936	552	1500	384	62.40%	36.80%
Pennfield twp	2324	1926	4311	398	53.91%	44.68%
Sheridan Twp	407	345	763	62	53.34%	45.22%
Springfield	620	893	1538	-273	40.31%	58.06%
Tekonsha Twp	364	337	713	27	51.05%	47.27%
Total	28333	29267	58326	-934	48.58%	50.18%
Ionia County
Belding	905	1095	2047	-190	44.21%	53.49%
Berlin Twp	674	390	1073	284	62.81%	36.35%
Boston Twp	1628	987	2647	641	61.50%	37.29%
Campbell Twp	852	344	1205	508	70.71%	28.55%
Danby Twp	863	596	1482	267	58.23%	40.22%
Easton Twp	759	619	1405	140	54.02%	44.06%
Ionia	938	1198	2175	-260	43.13%	55.08%
Ionia Twp	742	672	1429	70	51.92%	47.03%
Keene Twp	580	292	887	288	65.39%	32.92%
Lyons Twp	834	688	1552	146	53.74%	44.33%
North Plains Twp	218	307	536	-89	40.67%	57.28%
Odessa Twp	1078	663	1782	415	60.49%	37.21%
Orange Twp	330	202	548	128	60.22%	36.86%
Orleans Twp	562	480	1056	82	53.22%	45.45%
Otisco Twp	628	424	1075	204	58.42%	39.44%
Portland	923	869	1820	54	50.71%	47.75%
Portland Twp	1023	666	1711	357	59.79%	38.92%
Ronald Twp	411	367	793	44	51.83%	46.28%
Sebewa Twp	367	159	537	208	68.34%	29.61%
Total	14315	11018	25760	3297	55.57%	42.77%
Kent County
Ada Twp	5193	2671	7920	2522	65.57%	33.72%
Algoma Twp	3621	1742	5409	1879	66.94%	32.21%
Alpine Twp	3156	2860	6104	296	51.70%	46.85%
Bowne Twp	1350	448	1816	902	74.34%	24.67%
Byron Twp	8656	2845	11577	5811	74.77%	24.57%
Caledonia Twp	4918	1966	6946	2952	70.80%	28.30%
Cannon Twp	5624	2482	8171	3142	68.83%	30.38%
Cascade Twp	7252	3540	10857	3712	66.80%	32.61%
Cedar Springs	635	520	1172	115	54.18%	44.37%
Courtland Twp	2825	1399	4274	1426	66.10%	32.73%
East Grand Rapids	3521	3361	6916	160	50.91%	48.60%
Gaines Twp	7868	4308	12264	3560	64.16%	35.13%
Grand Rapids	28772	50739	80536	-21967	35.73%	63.00%
Grand Rapids Twp	6338	3803	10213	2535	62.06%	37.24%
Grattan Twp	1371	795	2191	576	62.57%	36.28%
Lowell	917	807	1751	110	52.37%	46.09%
Lowell Twp	1894	1127	3057	767	61.96%	36.87%
Nelson Twp	1302	792	2124	510	61.30%	37.29%
Oakfield Twp	1723	1185	2941	538	58.59%	40.29%
Plainfield Twp	10727	6965	17871	3762	60.02%	38.97%
Rockford	1732	1211	2967	521	58.38%	40.82%
Solon Twp	1734	1023	2790	711	62.15%	36.67%
Sparta Twp	2374	1561	3983	813	59.60%	39.19%
Spencer Twp	1041	755	1825	286	57.04%	41.37%
Tyrone Twp	1228	695	1943	533	63.20%	35.77%
Vergennes Twp	1686	802	2505	884	67.31%	32.02%
Total	117458	100402	220123	17056	53.36%	45.61%
Montcalm County
Eureka Twp	1028	900	1945	128	52.85%	46.27%
Total All	177789	153081	334666	24708	53.12%	45.74%

Congressional District 3 - Redistricted (MI-03)

Incumbent - Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2.

Challenger - Steve Pestka (D-Ada)

Update 8/30/2012 - Amash vs Pestka will face each other in an interesting matchup.

Update 5-16-2012 - The dems will have an interesting moderate vs leftist primary with the winner facing libertarian Amash. This could have some hard feelings in the aftermath. I think Pestka would be the strongest challenge the dems could bring. Amash isn't liked in the establishment, but on the other hand does have some strong core support.

There's some subtle, but significant changes to this district. It's still Kent County based, but sheds Grandville, Wyoming, Walker, and Kentwood to the 2nd District. Kentwood and Wyoming went for Obama. Walker was close. Grandville was solid red. It gains Alpine Township (went for Obama), all of Solon Twp, Sparta Township and Tyrone Township in Kent County, all of which went for McCain. It keeps GOP leaning Ionia and Barry Counties. Most significantly, it gains all of Calhoun County, a swing area, from Tim Walberg (and a couple of rural townships from Upton)

That's potentially bad news for this district, but someone had to take Calhoun County (with Mark Schauer and Mr thinks his bleep don't stink Joe Schwarz), a major thorn in the side of Tim Walberg. Amash drew the short straw and may have to contend with Schauer, Schwarz, or Kate Segal, not to mention some establishment types in Kent County which do not like his more paleo-conservative views compared to the more liberal Ehlers.

I have some concerns with this district. Obama did extremely well in Kent County in 08, being the first democrat to win it in a long, long time. It's been getting more competitive the last 8 years, largely due to Grand Rapids moving from slightly blue to strong democrat, and places like Kentwood, East Grand Rapids, and Wyoming becoming very competitive. The old district overall, including Barry and Ionia Counties had a 2300 vote spread for McCain and 64000 vote spread for Bush. The current one has a 3600 vote spread for Obama and 52000 vote spread for Bush. Amash has a 38000 vote spread in 08 in portions which still represented. This doesn't include Calhoun County.

I expect a tough battle for Amash in 2012. He beat two establishment guys in 2010 with his tea party support. He also announced he was running before Ehlers retired. He was willing to primary the incumbent. There were some defections to the democrat because Amash wasn't part of "the inner circle." It would not surprise me is the dems try and make a run, especially if there's a primary. I think Amash is favored, but I'd call this a lean GOP seat and not a safe one, at least for now. Amash took one for the team in redistricting.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry	16431	13449	29880	2982	54.99%	45.01%	9.98%
Calhoun	28553	34561	63114	-6008	45.24%	54.76%	-9.52%
Ionia	14156	12565	26721	1591	52.98%	47.02%	5.95%
Kent	148336	149909	298245	-1573	49.74%	50.26%	-0.53%
Grandville	-5555	-3209	-8764	-2346	63.38%	36.62%	26.77%
Kentwood	-10636	-12587	-23223	1951	45.80%	54.20%	-8.40%
Walker	-6499	-5648	-12147	-851	53.50%	46.50%	7.01%
Wyoming	-15042	-15682	-30724	640	48.96%	51.04%	-2.08%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	169744	173358	343102	-3614	49.47%	50.53%	-1.05%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry	18638	11312	29950	7326	62.23%	37.77%	24.46%
Calhoun	32093	29891	61984	2202	51.78%	48.22%	3.55%
Ionia	16621	10647	27268	5974	60.95%	39.05%	21.91%
Kent	171201	116909	288110	54292	59.42%	40.58%	18.84%
Grandville	-6567	-2397	-8964	-4170	73.26%	26.74%	46.52%
Kentwood	-13014	-9126	-22140	-3888	58.78%	41.22%	17.56%
Walker	-7528	-4472	-12000	-3056	62.73%	37.27%	25.47%
Wyoming	-18524	-11979	-30503	-6545	60.73%	39.27%	21.46%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	192920	140785	333705	52135	57.81%	42.19%	15.62%
2010	Amash	Miles	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry	13042	6878	19920	6164	65.47%	34.53%	30.94%
Calhoun			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ionia	11321	5989	17310	5332	65.40%	34.60%	30.80%
Kent	109351	71086	180437	38265	60.60%	39.40%	21.21%
Grandville	-4288	-1607	-5895	-2681	72.74%	27.26%	45.48%
Kentwood	-8028	-5828	-13856	-2200	57.94%	42.06%	15.88%
Walker	-5036	-2714	-7750	-2322	64.98%	35.02%	29.96%
Wyoming	-10931	-6514	-17445	-4417	62.66%	37.34%	25.32%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	105431	67290	172721	38141	61.04%	38.96%	22.08%

Areas to watch in Michigan for Election Day Results

Who knows what's going to happen tomorrow. Here's the current score. 0-0. All of the state level seats are up for contest, except some trustee and judicial seats.

We're playing offense on the state house a mix of offense and defense on the state senate, as well as the statewide and congressional seats. All of the areas are important, but there are a few counties to keep an eye on for the seats in play.

1. Parts of the UP, particularly Chippewa, Mackinac, Delta, Menominee, Dickinson, and Iron Counties. Those are competitive counties, but three seats, maybe four or five if we're super lucky, are in play up there. Dan Benishek in MI-01, Tom Casperson for State Senate in the 38th district, and possibly three state rep seats up there, although I think we have a good chance at one of them. Iron County leans slightly democrat, but Benishek is from there. Chippewa and Mackinac slightly Republican, but McDowell's from there. The triangle of Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta counties swing the UP, and will be the biggest factor in who wins this congressional district. I think Beniskek wins this seat narrowly. 49-47-5 for 3rd parties.

2. Kent County. We have a tough defense for state senate here and a darkhorse defense for Ehlers seat. Some of the old time Kent County establishment Republicans are often "different" and are much more liberal (outside the life issue) than the average population. It's not an accident than Kent County local government has been one of the five most anti-gun counties in the state. The establishment there is rather hostile to small l libertarianism. That is making it more difficult than the past for this defense. I think this year though was the right year for a principled libertarian-conservative like Justin Amash. He's getting a battle in the general, although his convincing primary win sent a strong message to the establishment there. The people are in charge, not the self-proclaimed elite. I think Amash wins by 10-15% (my gut feeling, no poll evidence). It's not Ehlers numbers, but it'll be in line with an average top of the ticket (Snyder should do better here - 25% win there since he'll get the Ehlers type votes as well as conservatives because of Virg). I think 08's an aberration. I do think Amash does better in Barry and Ionia County though, than Kent County. We need a 60% win though for Johnson and Schuette.

3. Jackson County. Jackson County is what I'd classify as conservative independent. It's important statewide. It's populist, socially conservative, and distrustful of both big government and big business. It has both democrat strongholds (City of Jackson) and republican strongholds (Spring Arbor), but even in those strongholds, there's a lot of independents. As Jackson County goes, usually so does the 7th Congressional district. Jackson voted against the incumbent in 2006 primary and in 2008. Can Walberg win back Jackson County? If he does, he'll likely win. If not, Schauer will survive. There's also two key state rep districts based in Jackson County. Those will be key if the GOP is taking back the house. 55%+ would be real good.

4. Monroe County. It's a swing County that voted for Gore, Posthumus, Bush, Granholm, and Obama. Dingell's won there with big margins as well. If Dr Rob Steele (best candidate in a long time) is going to upset Dingell, he'll need to get big numbers in this part of the district, probably close to 60%. There's also two potentially competitive state rep districts here too. It's a must win county statewide. 53% would be real good.

5. Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, Waterford, Royal Oak, Clawson. Those are all key in Oakland County. If Royal Oak and West Bloomfield are close (I expect them to stay dem, but to what degree), we could be looking at blowouts and you can say an early congratulations to Congressman Rocky, and one if not two new GOP state reps. If Farmington Hills and Clawson is close (if they're going GOP, Rocky wins), it could be a long night with potential recounts, but promising results for Rocky (he'll need big help from Troy then). If Waterford is more populist and close, but has trended GOP lately outside of the 06/08 disasters. I'd like to see a win in Farmington Hills, 46%+ in West Bloomfield, 54%+ in Waterford, 46%+ in Royal Oak, and a win in Clawson. I think any of those will assure a pickup.

6. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, St Clair Shores. Those are three of the key areas in Macomb County. Those will determine who wins Macomb County overall, and in Clinton Twp's case, probably who'll take the state. There's three, maybe four if lucky, competitive state rep districts there. There's a fifth competitive seat in North Macomb that was lost in the 2008 clustermuck (Despite McCain winning the district). That one should be ours. I'd like to see 53%+ in S. Heights, and a win of any margin in Clinton Township and St Clair Shores

7. Lake Michigan Coast - Can we stop the 06/08 bleeding there. If so, bye Dan Scripps. Those should be 54%+ GOP counties from Oceana up to Leelanau. Benzie's the toughest.

8. Thumb, especially Tuscola and Huron Counties - This conservative populist area is extremely independent and loyal to no party. Even some 60% GOP areas at the top of the ticket will ticket split. Sanillac County's rep should flip with locally popular Espinoza termed out. Mike Green is the best candidate for the state senate district. He'll have to rack up big numbers in the thumb to counter Bay County, home of the populist socially moderate democrats. Green (best) can exceed Mayes (good) on the gun issue, and he's also carried a union card. This may be a pickup. We may take Terry Brown's seat as well, although that won't be easy. Like the sunrise coast and the UP, the top of the ticket doesn't tell the story here.

9. Western/Southernmost Wayne County. Two state senate seats and three state rep seats are up for grabs. Keep an eye on Canton Twp (Swings), Van Buren Twp (Dem leaning), Plymouth (city swings, Twp GOP), Northville, Wayne (dem, but by how much), Westland (dem, by how much), Garden City (dem, by how much) Livonia (slight GOP lean), Trenton (slight dem), Huron Twp (swing) and Gibraltar (slight dem). If any of those "dem by how much" areas are close or slight dem areas flipping, there will be some pickups. I'd like to see 54%+ in Canton, any win in Van Buren Twp, 60%+ in Plymouth Twp, 52%+ in Plymouth City, 60%+ in Northville, 42%+ in Wayne, 43%+ in Westland, 48%+ in Garden City, 55%+ in Livonia, any win in Trenton, 52%+ in Huron Twp, and any win in Gibralter.

10. Sunrise Coast - There's a string of swing counties from Presque Isle and Alpena down the Lake Huron Coast and over to the Saginaw Bay/West Branch area. Clare and Roscommon Counties aren't part of this area geographically, but are attached to the state rep districts here and are similar in politics. Populist. We have a tough defense (Tim Moore's open seat) and a longshot (due to the Sheltrown name) pickup opportunity here, along with the Alpena based open seat that's been close but democrat for several years. There's a darkhorse defense for state senate as well that I'm not ready to put in the safe column yet.

11. Isabella County. Probably on paper, our toughest state rep defense. Mt Pleasant is soldly dem, and the surrounding area is marginally republican. Any win in Isabella County is a positive. Rural Midland gives us a small cushion to work with for the state rep district.

12. Rural Washtenaw County. Implications for Tim Walberg, Dr Rob Steele, and an open state rep seat which is a tough offense. The swing townships in Walberg's district are Northfield, Manchester, Saline (city), Sylvan, and Dexter. Scio is a democrat stronghold, and Salem a Republican one. If the swing areas go our way along with big numbers in Manchester (or losses cut in Scio Twp), we have a shot at picking up the Byrnes seat, along with a sure thing with the Walberg seat as this is his weaker area.

13. Eaton County - Very difficult to read. Blue steak in 02, 06, and 08, but a red streak in 2004. A lot of state workers live here, although it's much more conservative socially than Ingham County next door. However, it's got a strong labor streak. The state rep district is a potentially tough defense, and Walberg's economic libertarianism didn't sell here twice, although his social views are more of a positive here outside of maybe Delta Township. This will be interesting to watch.

14. Van Buren County - Classic Swing County with state rep, state senate, and statewide implications. Must win for all of them.

15. Saginaw, Bay, Clinton, St Clair, Counties. If democrats lose Saginaw and Bay Counties (Dem lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts. If the GOP loses Clinton and St Clair Counties (GOP lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts.

Locally, Hamburg Township, City of Howell, Green Oak Township, Putnam Township, City of Brighton. If the democrats want to take any commissioner or state rep seats, they'll have to win all of those areas and win them big (better than 06 or 08). Not this year. If Cindy Denby keeps it even, let alone a win, in Howell City, Putnam Township, or Hamburg Township (marginal areas), it's over. Post won't break 40% in the Fowlerville or Hartland areas. $30,000+ down the drain for Post. Same goes for Tianen in Putnam Twp who won't come close in Marion Township. I've only seen one McBride sign in Green Oak at the home of democrat activists. Jack LaBelle doesn't campaign much, but people have voted for him for years, and he gets a lot of crossover and independent votes, which is important in marginal Green Oak. I haven't seen anything in the Hamburg commissioner district, and that's the least Republican. Kelly Raskauskas is running an aggressive race, but even in the Obama year, that was a 55% GOP district (62%+ in 04) due to most of Genoa Township in that district. I think this will be Irene Cahill v Bill Rogers 2.0 (from 2002) in results. As someone who has lived most of his life in that district, I called that race a pipedream in May. I still think it is.

Countywide, I'll be quite unhappy if Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson don't break 63%. Around that number is a magic number for statewide wins. I'd like to see Denby and both of the Rogers brothers to break 65%, and I expect a clean sweep of the commissioner seats. I thought two districts were winnable for the dems this year, but their strongest candidates are in two of the stronger GOP districts. Morris is probably the strongest as a candidate (probably most electable of the bunch), but his district is one of the two most GOP. Raskauskas is the 2nd strongest (Best organized, but not moderate enough). If either ran in Hamburg, I'd be concerned. Still, I wouldn't grade their electability in the range of the late Jake Donahue (who won), Robert Reddinger (who almost won in a conservative area), or even in Matt Evans range (ran ahead of the top of the ticket). Garry Post concerned me with his money. A moderate like Matt Evans or most of all, Robert Reddinger with $40,000 to spend and Raskauskas's organizational ability wouldn't concern me. It would scare me, especially if they kept Judy Daubenmeier in check.

Countywide, 63% is the magic number to watch for the statewide seats. We'll be in good shape to win if that's the number.

Filing Deadline Passes - Preliminary Report (Unofficial) - Primary 2010

The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Today is the filing deadline for the 2010 primary. It was at 4PM. There may be some paperwork going between the clerks and the Secretary of State Office, but here's a presumptive list of who is in and out from the Secretary of State


The Gubernatorial Candidates are:
GOP - Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox, Tom George, Pete Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder. There was talk about a couple of other longshots, but it's not happening. The petition requirements was the first elimination bout.

DEM - Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero. Alma Wheeler Smith dropped out. Geoff Fieger said he wasn't running. No Bob Bowman or anybody else.

It's a two way primary for the dems and a five way primary for the GOP

I'll update the congressional districts again when I have a chance to list who is in/out. It looks like we'll be seeing:

1st District (MI-01) - Open seat
GOP - Six way primary between Jason Allen, Dan Benishek, Patrick Donlon, Linda Goldthorpe, Don Hooper, and Tom Stillings.

Dem - Gary McDowell. I don't see Matt Gillard there. If McDowell has a free pass, this could be trouble for us. Major coup for McDowell (who is Stupak's guy) if he avoids a primary.


2nd District (MI-02) - Open seat
GOP - Seven way primary between Bill Cooper, Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Chris Larson, Field Reichardt, Jay Riemersma, and Ted Schendel.

Dem - Primary between Fred Johnson and Nicolette McClure.

Interesting matchups for the primary here. Holland dominates the district for the GOP. Muskegon dominates for the dems, but no Muskegon democrat is running. All of the GOP candidates are from Holland except Bill Cooper (Muskegon County) and Ted Schendel from Benzie County. For the dems, Fred Johnson is from Holland and McClure is from Lake County.

3rd District (MI-03) - Open Seat

GOP - Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman, Steven Heacock, Louise Johnson, and Bob Overbeek

Dem - Paul Mayhue and Pat Miles

The interesting this here is does Grand Rapids follow the "It's his turn" format as it has done for years. It looks like the "his turn" views are split between Hardiman and Heacock. That leaves an opening for Amash who is the upstart who may cause an upset.

4th District (MI-04) - Incumbent Dave Camp

GOP - Dave Camp of Midland
Dem - Jerry Campbell of St Helen

5th District (MI-05 ) - Incumbent Dale Kildee
GOP - John Kupiec and Rick Wilson, both of Grand Blanc
Dem - Dale Kildee of Flint and Scott Withers of Vassar

I don't see how a primary challenge from Tuscola County will be a big threat to Kildee, who is probably the most popular pol in Flint. One thing to watch however is the UAW membership and their response to Obama's health care takeover. A lot of the retirees and workers are scared to death about the UAW putting them all on the government plan.

6th District (MI-06) - Incumbent Fred Upton

GOP - Jack Hoogendyk of Kalamazoo and Fred Upton of St Joe
Dem - Don Cooney of Kalamazoo

This will be interesting. Upton has had issues with his right flank in the past, and this is the year of the anti-incumbent as Bob Bennett in Utah showed. Jack Hoogendyk has a lot of grass roots support and may actually pull this off if he gets traction. Cooney is stronger than most democrats on the congressional level in this district. Don't sleep on him either.

7th District (MI-07) - Incumbent Mark Schauer

GOP - Marvin Carlson of Manchester, Brian Rooney of Dexter, and Tim Walberg of Tipton
Dem - Mark Schauer of Battle Creek

This is the best chance of a pickup among the GOP. Rooney just moved to the district, but does have an interesting background with pro-life organizations and backstory, the Steelers, and his Iraq service. Carlson is a businessman. Walberg is a conservative's conservative and has proven it over a period of years, and always gets more support than polling and finances suggest. Walberg did what no one has done yet, defeated Doug Spade. He would have won if the NRCC didn't abandon him in 08.

8th District - Incumbent Mike Rogers
GOP - Mike Rogers of Brighton/Howell
Dem - Kande Ngalamulume of Lansing

Blue Cross Kande vs Mike.

9th District - Incumbent Gary Peters

GOP - Anna Janek of West Bloomfield, Richard Kuhn of Waterford, Andrew Rocky Raczkowski of Farmington Hills, Paul Welday of Farmington Hills.

Dem - Gary Peters

This is our 2nd best shot for a pickup after the 7th. Peters is a 1st term incumbent who was a complete yesman without an original thought. What Pelosi wanted, Peters delivered, including Cap and Trade along with Obama's health care takeover in a district which was HQ for Chrysler, and has a GM plant.

10th District - Incumbent Candice Miller

GOP - Candice Miller of Harrison Township
Dem - Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights

11th District - Incumbent Thad McCotter
GOP - Thad McCotter of Livonia
Dem - Natalie Mosher of Canton

This is one to watch for defense purposes. McCotter had a tough go in 08, despite running way ahead of the top of the ticket.

12th District - Incumbent Sander Levin
GOP - Don Volaric of Clinton Township
Dem - Sander Levin or Royal Oak and Mickey Switalski of Roseville

This is interesting for two reasons. Levin has his toughest primary in ages. Switalski has won a ton of races in Macomb County. As Michigan lost a congressional seat, Levin's district had to be pushed further into Macomb County, which isn't his main territory. Can Volaric take advantage of that?

13th District - Incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
GOP - John Hauler of Grosse Pointe Woods
Dem - Vincent Brown of Garden City?(Garden City is in the 11th), Hansen Clarke, Stephen Hume, and Carolyn Kilpatrick, and Glenn Plummer of Detroit.

Kilpatrick is in big trouble this August. If it wasn't for straight ticket voting, I'd give Hauler a 35% shot in the general for "Bill Jefferson" reasons, but the straight ticket zombies who don't even read the ballot make it about a 5% shot for a pickup.

14th District - Incumbent John Conyers
GOP - Pauline Montie of Southgate
Dem - John Conyers of Detroit

I figured someone would take on Conyers in the primary after his wife making the news as a city councilcritter. The straight ticket zombies rule applies here too, as it does in the 13th district (and 5th, 12th, and 15th for that matter)

15th District - Incumbent John Dingell
GOP - Tony Amorose of Southgate, John Lynch of Ypsilanti, John Materyn of Brownstown Township, Majed Moughni of Dearborn, and Rob Steele of Ypsi
Dem - John Dingell of Dearborn.

I'm a bit surprised at a five way primary here. Maybe something is bursting in this district as blowback against the Ann Arbor leftists.

Closer to home in Livingston County, these are the presumed matchups:

State Senate 22nd District - Open
GOP - Joe Hune v Paul Rogers
Dem - Chuck Fellows

State Rep 47th District - Incumbent Cindy Denby
GOP - Cindy Denby
Dem - Garry Post

State Rep 66th District - Incumbent Bill Rogers
GOP - Bill Rogers
Dem - James Delcamp

County Commissioners
District 1 - All of Brighton Twp outside precinct 5, Hartland Twp 5 - Incumbent Maggie Jones
GOP - Maggie Jones and Nancy Hill
Dem - None

District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 - Incumbent Jim Mantey
GOP - Jim Mantey
Dem - Thomas Bell III

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5 - Incumbent Dave Domas
GOP - Dave Domas and Charlie Aberasturi
Dem - Dane Morris

District 4 - All of Handy, Iosco, and Unadilla Twp, Marion Twp 1, Howell Twp 3 - Incumbent Ronald Van Houten
Unopposed

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Open
GOP - Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Anne Lathrop
Dem - David Berry

District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12.
Incumbent - Steve Williams
GOP - Steve Williams
Dem - Keith Tianen

District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Incumbent Carol Griffith
GOP - Carol Griffith
Dem - Kelly Raskauskas

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Incumbent Dennis Dolan
GOP - Dennis Dolan
Dem - Amir Baghdadchi

District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Incumbent Jack LaBelle
GOP - Jack LaBelle
Dem - Barry McBride

Judges - No opposition.

I'll take a closer look at the county commissioner and local races as time goes by, but here's the unofficial final list after the filing deadline.

(MI-03) - Bill Hardiman and Steve Heacock are in

We officially have a primary on the way in the 3rd district which opened with Vern Ehlers retiring. Bill Hardiman, state senator and former Kentwood mayor has jumped in, and is probably the favorite on paper. The other candidate to jump in is Steve Heacock, a former county commissioner. I don't know much about Heacock. Hardiman is a moderate republican in the mold of Ehlers. Justin Amash jumped in before Ehlers retired and is a strong fiscal conservative.

Sikkema and Land not running probably helps Hardiman. Zandstra not running helps Amash. Will others go for it? This primary will be a very interesting one.

MI-03 - Terri Lynn Land not running for Congress (Nor is Zandstra)

There's a lot of speculation going on with the open 3rd district race. So far, the only announced candidate is State Rep. Justin Amash. Some speculation centered on Terri Lynn Land, but that was shot down quickly.From Grand Rapids Press

Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is not going to run for the Congressional seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers, a spokesman said today. "Right now, she's focused on being part of Mike Bouchard's team for governor," spokesperson Matt Golden said.
Land, a Kent County Republican, who is term-limited as Secretary of State, committed last fall to being Oakland County Sheriff's gubernatorial running mate.

Also according to the Western  Right blog, Jerry Zandstra is not running either. State Rep Dave Agema endorsed his colleague Amash.

Three names I keep hearing are Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, and Bill Hardiman. Hardiman got a LOT of establishment support when he ran for State Senate in 2002, but will that transfer to Congress.since a lot of people have their eye on this spot.

Interestingly, there's already a poll from John Yob. Thanks to John for releasing this. From Grand Rapids Press

GOP strategist John Yob did a quick telephone poll of 1,230 likely GOP primary voters Tuesday evening when it became apparent U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers would resign his seat. Here's what his "snapshot" of the "starting gate" showed: Possible candidate: (Voters) Percentage
Bill Hardiman: (229) 19%
Ken Sikkema: (163) 13%
Terri Lynn Land: (151) 12%
Dave Hildenbrand: (129) 10%
Mark Jansen: (90) 8%
Justin Amash: (81) 7%
Brian Calley: (67) 5%
Kevin Green: (33) 3%
Jerry Zandstra: (27) 2%
Undecided: (252) 20%

Terri Land and Jerry Zandstra can be taken off the list. Dave Hildenbrand has announced for Hardiman's old State Senate seat, the 29th. Dave's a sharp guy, going back to his days with Posthumus. He's got a tough district, but if anyone can win there, he can. Does he switch races by finishing fourth in Yob's poll? I think it depends on who jumps in.

Interestingly, nobody from Ionia County was in the poll. I'd watch for geography to factor in this race. Ionia and Barry Counties, Grand Rapids itself. Eastern burbs (Kentwood, Lowell), Western Burbs (Grandville, Wyoming, Walker), and the Northern and Southern more rural areas. I'll almost bet money that the democrat running will be from Grand Rapids itself.

It'll be interesting to watch.

Bernero jumps in for governor, 3rd District (MI-03) opens?

Some major news in the works.

First, in a surprise to few, Lansing Mayor and former State Senator/State Rep Virg Bernero is running for governor. That makes things interesting. Virg is unknown outside of the Lansing area, but that won't be the case for long. He has a lot of detractors and supporters. One thing I will respect about Virg is that he doesn't mince words much and isn't afraid of speaking his mind. I think he's a real threat to win, much more than any of the names mentioned by the democrats so far. Andy Dillon, Denise Ilitch, Alma Smith, Bob "I don't live in Michigan" Bowman. Virg will work hard and if he loses, it won't be because of lazy campaigning. The GOP is going to have to bring it, no matter who the nominee is on either side, but especially if it's Virg, because he'll be bringing it. I guarantee people will know who he is by the time the primary ends.

Secondly, Justin Amash, a state rep from Kent County has announced he is running for the 3rd Congressional District. From Mlive

ustin Amash, 29, a first-term Republican state representative from Kentwood, announced on his Facebook page minutes ago that he will seek the 3rd District Congressional seat held by Vern Ehlers.

He set up a Web site that touts his record of supporting limited government.

Ehlers, 76, said he would announce Wednesday whether he will seek a ninth term. The district includes Barry, Ionia and all but a sliver of Kent counties.

If Ehlers does run again, he has plenty of cash on hand ($489,645) and raised a healthy $133,786 in the past quarter. The district remains solidly Republican, although the Grand Rapids population base leans Democratic.

Amash's Web site says fellow state representatives Dave Agema, R-Grandville, Bob Genetski, R-Saugatuck, and Tom McMillin, R-Rochester Hills, all have endorsed his Congressional bid.

Thirdly, speculation is that Vern Ehlers is retiring. That would fit Amash's announcement. Expect a primary. From Hotline

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI 03) will announce his retirement at a 10 a.m. presser tomorrow morning, according to a MI-based source.
A press release from Ehler's office says the presser "follow[s] speculation about his plans to continue serving" in the House. Several GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall his wife had a heart attack last week, further lending credence to speculation he will step aside.
The 2/10 announcement will come a day after state Rep. Justin Amash (R) announced a primary challenge to Ehlers.
This Grand Rapids-based seat, under the right circumstances, is a potential pickup opportunity for Dems. In the '08 Dem wave, and with the GOP virtually conceding MI, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) eked out a 49%-49% win over Pres. Obama. But in much better times for the GOP in '04, George W. Bush won a comfortable 59-40% win over Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). The current enviro., both nationally and in MI, indicate that GOPers should be in a much safer place to hold this open seat. Ehlers, meanwhile, has never won with less than 61%.
Besides Amash, a GOP source names state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R) as a potential candidate. Hardiman, an African-American, represents a Grand Rapids-based seat in the Legislature, and was former mayor of Kentwood.

This seat should stay ours, but I am a little concerned about it. There's my recent update of the 3rd district.

Assuming this is now an open district, the keys are what kind of a primary we're going to have, and who the democrats are going to throw out for this. I think the good news for us and this district is that the 29th District state senate seat is opening up, since I expect the top democrat candidates to run for that instead because it's an easier district. I think Steve Pestka, Michael Sak, Roy Schmidt, George Heartwell, and Robert Dean could make things more difficult in keeping this seat if there is a divided primary. One on one, I'm not worried. A five on one Joe Schwarz special from 2004 worries me, especially if the democrat is pro-life. (if not, our odds of winning double)

There's a lot of people I can see running for this seat. Some I prefer to others. Justin Amash and Bill Hardiman are mentioned, but I'd watch for former Lt Governor Dick Posthumus, Jerry Zandstra, one of the Glenn Steils, Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, Brian Calley, Gary Newell, Kevin Green, or Tom Pearce to make a run, along with a possible countywide officer from Kent County. With Bouchard's early polling numbers, would Terri Lynn Land drop her Lt Governor bid for a Congressional run? (I'm probably going to hear about that comment later. Pure speculation, nothing more.) If the primary looks like it may be divisive, look for that "safe choice" to be recruited. I expect that to be either Land or Posthumus. If either of them run, I think they would be the favorites. If not, this will be wide open for the taking and I haven't followed all the ins and outs of Kent County politics to make a good guess.

This one will be quite interesting.

Congressional District 3 (MI-03) Updated

Updated 5-18-2010 - Listed all Candidates filed.
Updated 8-4-2010 - Primary Results

Michigan's 3rd District - Congress
Incumbent - Vernon Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) - Updated 2/10/10 - Not running for re-election
Years in office as of 2010 election - 17.
Cook District Numbers - R+6
Candidates:
GOP - Justin Amash
Dem - Pat Miles

Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 49%
Obama - 49%
2004:
Bush – 59%
Kerry – 40%
2000:
Bush 60%
Gore 38%

This district covers almost all of Kent County (except Alpine, precinct 2 in Solon, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships), and all of Barry and Ionia counties. This district has been Republican since the 1970's (and was Republican before that when President Ford was the rep) when Grand Rapids was last solid democrat. Today, Grand Rapids is once again solidly democrat, although the district was still republican and now I'd classify it as an "Ehlers" district. It's relatively safe for him, but could be extremely competitive when the almost 76 year old congressman (same age as Carl Levin) decides to retire. It could be soon, or it could be 20 years from now. Kildee, Sander Levin, Conyers, and Dingell are all older than Ehlers and still around. It has gone a major blue shift, like the 2nd district, in the past few years.

There are causes for concern. Ehlers had his weakest numbers in 2008 with 61%, 12 points ahead of the ticket. He had 67% in 2004 (8% ahead of the ticket), 70% in 2002, and 65% in a similar, but slightly different district in 2000. Despite that, the ticket splitters still like Ehlers as shown by running 12 points ahead of the ticket. I think this is safe for Ehlers, but not safe when he retires.

We'll start with the Ehlers 2004 numbers. I'll be subdividing Kent County, which has about 5/6 of the vote. Barry and Ionia Counties are important, but are smaller areas compared to Kent County, which is the 4th largest county in the state (behind the Detroit area counties of  Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne).

Here's the 2004 numbers. Ehlers swept the district, including the City of Grand Rapids.

2004 Election	Ehlers	Hickey	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Barry County	19,169	9,025	936	29,130	10144	65.81%	30.98%	34.82%
Ionia County	16,778	7,707	449	24,934	9071	67.29%	30.91%	36.38%
Kent County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	5,516	1,289	99	6,904	4227	79.90%	18.67%	61.23%
Algoma Twp	3,599	1,197	92	4,888	2402	73.63%	24.49%	49.14%
Bowne Twp	1,381	270	18	1,669	1111	82.74%	16.18%	66.57%
Byron Twp	8,349	1,715	124	10,188	6634	81.95%	16.83%	65.12%
Caledonia Twp	4,917	1,077	107	6,101	3840	80.59%	17.65%	62.94%
Cannon Twp	5,994	1,442	125	7,561	4552	79.28%	19.07%	60.20%
Cascade Twp	8,128	1,924	126	10,178	6204	79.86%	18.90%	60.96%
City of Cedar Springs	775	356	35	1,166	419	66.47%	30.53%	35.93%
Courtland Twp	2,831	790	79	3,700	2041	76.51%	21.35%	55.16%
E. Grand Rapids	4,842	1,835	76	6,753	3007	71.70%	27.17%	44.53%
Gaines Twp	8,454	2,484	152	11,090	5970	76.23%	22.40%	53.83%
City of Grand Rapids	42,224	36,553	1616	80,393	5671	52.52%	45.47%	7.05%
Grand Rapids Twp	7,104	2,022	133	9,259	5082	76.73%	21.84%	54.89%
City of Grandville	6,872	1,757	137	8,766	5115	78.39%	20.04%	58.35%
Grattan Twp	1,508	515	43	2,066	993	72.99%	24.93%	48.06%
City of Kentwood	14,239	7,042	349	21,630	7197	65.83%	32.56%	33.27%
City of Lowell	1179	508	55	1,742	671	67.68%	29.16%	38.52%
Lowell Twp	2049	728	72	2,849	1321	71.92%	25.55%	46.37%
Nelson Twp	1,435	608	69	2,112	827	67.95%	28.79%	39.16%
Oakfield Twp	1,859	803	76	2,738	1056	67.90%	29.33%	38.57%
Plainfield Twp	12,232	4,714	318	17,264	7518	70.85%	27.31%	43.55%
City of Rockford	1,875	717	51	2,643	1158	70.94%	27.13%	43.81%
Solon Twp	570	232	20	822	338	69.34%	28.22%	41.12%
Spencer Twp	1,118	647	42	1,807	471	61.87%	35.81%	26.07%
Vergennes Twp	1,792	422	59	2,273	1370	78.84%	18.57%	60.27%
City of Walker	8,061	3,438	226	11,725	4623	68.75%	29.32%	39.43%
City of Wyoming	19,615	9,558	579	29,752	10057	65.93%	32.13%	33.80%
Total	214,465	101,375	6,263	322,103	113090	66.58%	31.47%	35.11%

2008 showed some differences. The biggest was the City of Grand Rapids, followed by Kentwood and Wyoming. Ehlers actually lost the former, and the latter two make a big shift. The rest made a smaller shift against Ehlers, and the presidential numbers tell the tale.

2008 Election	Ehlers	Sanchez	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Barry County	18,005	9,953	936	28,894	8052	62.31%	34.45%	27.87%
Ionia County	15,758	9,300	449	25,507	6458	61.78%	36.46%	25.32%
Kent County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	5,673	1,544	257	7,474	4129	75.90%	20.66%	55.24%
Algoma Twp	3,593	1,397	219	5,209	2196	68.98%	26.82%	42.16%
Bowne Twp	1,335	295	66	1,696	1040	78.71%	17.39%	61.32%
Byron Twp	8,720	2,075	323	11,118	6645	78.43%	18.66%	59.77%
Caledonia Twp	5,004	1,401	226	6,631	3603	75.46%	21.13%	54.34%
Cannon Twp	5,903	1,684	254	7,841	4219	75.28%	21.48%	53.81%
Cascade Twp	7,970	2,287	325	10,582	5683	75.32%	21.61%	53.70%
City of Cedar Springs	745	426	51	1,222	319	60.97%	34.86%	26.10%
Courtland Twp	2,993	968	169	4,130	2025	72.47%	23.44%	49.03%
E. Grand Rapids	4,621	1,964	202	6,787	2657	68.09%	28.94%	39.15%
Gaines Twp	8,416	3,329	358	12,103	5087	69.54%	27.51%	42.03%
City of Grand Rapids	38,576	41,462	2787	82,825	-2886	46.58%	50.06%	-3.48%
Grand Rapids Twp	7,069	2,363	133	9,565	4706	73.90%	24.70%	49.20%
City of Grandville	6,872	1,757	137	8,766	5115	78.39%	20.04%	58.35%
Grattan Twp	1,430	591	74	2,095	839	68.26%	28.21%	40.05%
City of Kentwood	12,929	9,118	720	22,767	3811	56.79%	40.05%	16.74%
City of Lowell	1116	611	66	1,793	505	62.24%	34.08%	28.17%
Lowell Twp	2033	788	109	2,930	1245	69.39%	26.89%	42.49%
Nelson Twp	1,380	635	107	2,122	745	65.03%	29.92%	35.11%
Oakfield Twp	1,811	913	147	2,871	898	63.08%	31.80%	31.28%
Plainfield Twp	11,999	5,109	666	17,774	6890	67.51%	28.74%	38.76%
City of Rockford	1,930	853	109	2,892	1077	66.74%	29.50%	37.24%
Solon Twp	629	306	29	964	323	65.25%	31.74%	33.51%
Spencer Twp	1,052	681	73	1,806	371	58.25%	37.71%	20.54%
Vergennes Twp	1,798	497	98	2,393	1301	75.14%	20.77%	54.37%
City of Walker	7,627	3,791	462	11,880	3836	64.20%	31.91%	32.29%
City of Wyoming	17,411	11,551	1079	30,041	5860	57.96%	38.45%	19.51%
Total	204,398	117,649	10,631	332,678	86749	61.44%	35.36%	26.08%

Here's the 2004 Presidential Numbers. Bush won everywhere here except Grand Rapids itself. It was still solidly GOP in 04.

2004 Election	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Barry County	18,638	11,312	322	30,272	7326	61.57%	37.37%	24.20%
Ionia County	16,621	10,647	352	27,620	5974	60.18%	38.55%	21.63%
Kent County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4,933	2,157	52	7,142	2776	69.07%	30.20%	38.87%
Algoma Twp	3,455	1,577	43	5,075	1878	68.08%	31.07%	37.00%
Bowne Twp	1,327	387	19	1,733	940	76.57%	22.33%	54.24%
Byron Twp	8,084	2,264	59	10,407	5820	77.68%	21.75%	55.92%
Caledonia Twp	4,662	1,570	46	6,278	3092	74.26%	25.01%	49.25%
Cannon Twp	5,572	2,222	76	7,870	3350	70.80%	28.23%	42.57%
Cascade Twp	7,254	3,160	83	10,497	4094	69.11%	30.10%	39.00%
City of Cedar Springs	764	446	13	1,223	318	62.47%	36.47%	26.00%
Courtland Twp	2,667	1,132	38	3,837	1535	69.51%	29.50%	40.01%
E. Grand Rapids	3,807	3,107	48	6,962	700	54.68%	44.63%	10.05%
Gaines Twp	8,110	3,202	80	11,392	4908	71.19%	28.11%	43.08%
City of Grand Rapids	36,115	45,794	900	82,809	-9679	43.61%	55.30%	-11.69%
Grand Rapids Twp	6,349	3,077	84	9,510	3272	66.76%	32.36%	34.41%
City of Grandville	6,567	2,397	77	9,041	4170	72.64%	26.51%	46.12%
Grattan Twp	1,367	756	18	2,141	611	63.85%	35.31%	28.54%
City of Kentwood	13,014	9,126	188	22,328	3888	58.29%	40.87%	17.41%
City of Lowell	1072	701	26	1,799	371	59.59%	38.97%	20.62%
Lowell Twp	1885	1,047	30	2,962	838	63.64%	35.35%	28.29%
Nelson Twp	1,370	797	29	2,196	573	62.39%	36.29%	26.09%
Oakfield Twp	1,763	1,060	34	2,857	703	61.71%	37.10%	24.61%
Plainfield Twp	11,130	6,265	178	17,573	4865	63.34%	35.65%	27.68%
City of Rockford	1,708	1,002	25	2,735	706	62.45%	36.64%	25.81%
Solon Twp (1)	528	329	11	868	199	60.83%	37.90%	22.93%
Spencer Twp	1,039	803	26	1,868	236	55.62%	42.99%	12.63%
Vergennes Twp	1,640	672	21	2,333	968	70.30%	28.80%	41.49%
City of Walker	7,528	4,472	129	12,129	3056	62.07%	36.87%	25.20%
City of Wyoming	18,524	11,979	276	30,779	6545	60.18%	38.92%	21.26%
Total	197,493	133,460	3,283	334,236	64033	59.09%	39.93%	19.16%

59% overall. 58.71% in the Kent County portion of the district.  Grand Rapids was blue, but only E. Grand Rapids, Kentwood, Lowell, and Spencer Twp were under 60% GOP. Then there's 2008.

2008 Election	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Barry County	16,431	13,449	685	30,565	2982	53.76%	44.00%	9.76%
Ionia County	14,156	12,265	598	27,019	1891	52.39%	45.39%	7.00%
Kent County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4,668	2,965	80	7,713	1703	60.52%	38.44%	22.08%
Algoma Twp	3,197	2,110	113	5,420	1087	58.99%	38.93%	20.06%
Bowne Twp	1,257	476	26	1,759	781	71.46%	27.06%	44.40%
Byron Twp	8,055	3,195	170	11,420	4860	70.53%	27.98%	42.56%
Caledonia Twp	4,492	2,259	113	6,864	2233	65.44%	32.91%	32.53%
Cannon Twp	5,163	2,893	123	8,179	2270	63.13%	35.37%	27.75%
Cascade Twp	6,610	4,176	132	10,918	2434	60.54%	38.25%	22.29%
City of Cedar Springs	647	601	27	1,275	46	50.75%	47.14%	3.61%
Courtland Twp	2,656	1,555	79	4,290	1101	61.91%	36.25%	25.66%
E. Grand Rapids	3,155	3,753	67	6,975	-598	45.23%	53.81%	-8.57%
Gaines Twp	7,542	4,788	185	12,515	2754	60.26%	38.26%	22.01%
City of Grand Rapids	28,372	56,146	1466	85,984	-27774	33.00%	65.30%	-32.30%
Grand Rapids Twp	5,716	4,185	131	10,032	1531	56.98%	41.72%	15.26%
City of Grandville	5,555	3,209	133	8,897	2346	62.44%	36.07%	26.37%
Grattan Twp	1,233	913	36	2,182	320	56.51%	41.84%	14.67%
City of Kentwood	10,636	12,587	236	23,459	-1951	45.34%	53.66%	-8.32%
City of Lowell	921	915	43	1,879	6	49.02%	48.70%	0.32%
Lowell Twp	1734	1,244	58	3,036	490	57.11%	40.97%	16.14%
Nelson Twp	1,216	970	58	2,244	246	54.19%	43.23%	10.96%
Oakfield Twp	1,591	1,364	65	3,020	227	52.68%	45.17%	7.52%
Plainfield Twp	10,053	7,959	301	18,313	2094	54.90%	43.46%	11.43%
City of Rockford	1,615	1,346	42	3,003	269	53.78%	44.82%	8.96%
Solon Twp (1)	540	439	14	993	101	54.38%	44.21%	10.17%
Spencer Twp	953	893	40	1,886	60	50.53%	47.35%	3.18%
Vergennes Twp	1,550	898	32	2,480	652	62.50%	36.21%	26.29%
City of Walker	6,499	5,648	241	12,388	851	52.46%	45.59%	6.87%
City of Wyoming	15,042	15,682	581	31,305	-640	48.05%	50.09%	-2.04%
Total	171,255	168,883	5,875	346,013	2372	49.49%	48.81%	0.69%

This is bad folks. Really really bad. Kent County itself flipped, and the part of Kent in the district went 49.64% for Obama. McCain got 53.12% in the non Kent portion to keep the district "red." However, the GOP needs to get 60% here statewide. Obama made up about 62,000 of Bush's nearly 64,000 vote spread.  For comparison's sake.

Non Kent County:
2004 - Bush 60.90%, Kerry 37.93%, 57,982 votes. - Vote spread of 13,300
2008 - McCain 53.12%, Obama 44.65%, 57,584 votes. - Vote spread of 4,873

City of Grand Rapids
2004 - Kerry 55.30%, Bush 43.61%, 82,809 votes. - Vote spread of -9679
2008 - Obama 65.30%, McCain 33.00%, 85,984 votes.  - Vote Spread of -27,774

Grand Rapids Suburbs (E. Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Twp, Grandville Kentwood, Walker, Wyoming)
2004 - Bush 61.44%, Kerry 37.67%, 92548 votes - Vote spread of 22,002 votes.
2008 - McCain 50.08%, Obama 48.43%, 93,056 votes - Vote spread of 1539 votes.

Outer Kent County:
2004 - Bush 68.44%, Kerry 30.70%, 102,764 votes - Vote spread of 38,781 votes
2008 - McCain 60.05%, Obama 38.36%, 109,389 votes - Vote spread of 23,784 votes.


While the outer county and rural counties turned on the GOP, it was nothing like the city and suburbs of Grand Rapids. This bleeding needs to stop. As late as 2000 and 2002, Grand Rapids itself was competitive and the burbs were untouchable by the democrats. Now, GR seems untouchable for the GOP, and the burbs are competitive. This needs to change fast, and hopefully what has caught on in Virginia is going to catch on here.

The good news is that if Ehlers retires, there is a large farm club of GOP representatives.

State Senate 33rd - Covers Clinton, Ionia, Isabella, and Montcalm Counties. This is a potentially competitive district now that the dems are competitive in Clinton and Montcalm counties. Isabella County has gone more and more blue with Central Michigan (Cropsey won it in 02, lost it in 06), so this can be one to watch. Alan Cropsey is termed out. He's from Clinton County in the 8th District. Only Ionia County is in the 3rd district.

St Senate 33rd	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Cropsey/White	49687	40771	1978	92,436	8916	53.75%	44.11%	9.65%
02 - Cropsey/Munsell	45487	26800	2076	74,363	18687	61.17%	36.04%	25.13%

St Senate 30th - Covers Ottawa County, and in Kent County the City of Grandville, Sparta Township. Only Grandville is in the 2nd district. Wayne Kuipers is termed out and running for Hoekstra's seat.

St Senate 30th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Kuipers/VanderStoep	83,242	31,328	2223	116,793	51914	71.27%	26.82%	44.45%
02 - Kuipers/O'Brien	71,160	21,701	1637	94,498	49459	75.30%	22.96%	52.34%

St Senate 29th - Covers Cascade Twp, City of Grand Rapids, Grattan Twp, City of Kentwood, Lowell Twp, City of Lowell, and Vergennes Twp in Kent County. The redistricters had their heads up their butts drawing this. Why combine Kentwood and Grand Rapids? It's a very competitive seat and opening up with the term limited Bill Hardiman stepping down after two tough wins.

St Senate 29th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Hardiman/LaGrand	51,900	45,600	1431	98,931	6300	52.46%	46.09%	6.37%
02 - Hardiman/Pestka	44,202	36,746	1178	82,126	7456	53.82%	44.74%	9.08%

St Senate 28th - Covers Ada Twp, Algoma Twp, Alpine Twp, Bowne Twp, Byron Twp, Caledonia Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, Gaines Twp, Grand Rapids twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp,  Spencer Twp, Tyrone Twp, City of Walker, and City of Wyoming. All except Alpine Twp, part of Solon Twp, and Tyrone Twp are  in the district.

St Senate 28th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Jansen/Abbassee	78,234	42,227	2646	123,107	36007	63.55%	34.30%	29.25%
02 - Sikkema/Berry	72,993	25,425	1373	99,791	47568	73.15%	25.48%	47.67%

St. Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Barry is in the 3rd district. It's a solid GOP district, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.

St Senate 24th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Birkholz/Royston	64,737	46,480		111,217	18257	58.21%	41.79%	16.42%
02 - Birkholz/Birdson	57,906	32,170		90,076	25736	64.29%	35.71%	28.57%

St Rep 87th - Covers Barry and Ionia Counties. Brian Calley I believe has one term remaining.

St Rep 87th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Calley/Grieves	29,583	14,360	2142	46,085	15223	64.19%	31.16%	33.03%
06 - Calley/Kalnbach	21,527	15,504	1195	38,226	6023	56.32%	40.56%	15.76%
04 - Newell/Brinkert	28,482	15,689	1035	45,206	12793	63.00%	34.71%	28.30%
02 - Newell/Lukasiewicz	19,676	11,020		30,696	8656	64.10%	35.90%	28.20%

St. Rep 86th - Covers Ada Twp, Bowne Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, part of the City of Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Twp, Grattan Twp, City of Lowell, Lowell Twp, Vergennes Twp, and City of Walker. Dave Hildenbrand is current incumbent and is rumored to be running for the open 29th State Senate position. Tough seat to keep. Good luck. This open seat should be solidly GOP.

St Rep 86th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Hildenbrand/Casalini	34,002	17,137	1565	52,704	16865	64.52%	32.52%	32.00%
06 - Hildenbrand/Casalini	28,716	15,085	819	44,620	13631	64.36%	33.81%	30.55%
04 - Hildenbrand/Turner	34,664	15,994	938	51,596	18670	67.18%	31.00%	36.18%
02 - Koetje/McDonald	24,865	10,456	747	36,068	14409	68.94%	28.99%	39.95%

St Rep 77th - Covers Byron Twp and Wyoming. Strongly leans GOP even with Wyoming's recent blue streak. This seat opens up as well as Kevin Green is termed out.

St Rep 77th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Green/Geerlings	25,338	14,125	1161	40,624	11213	62.37%	34.77%	27.60%
06 - Green/Ficeli	21,344	9,225	1058	31,627	12119	67.49%	29.17%	38.32%
04 - Green/Abbassee	26,158	11,459	1957	39,574	14699	66.10%	28.96%	37.14%
02 - Voorhees/Smith	18,103	7,070	447	25,620	11033	70.66%	27.60%	43.06%

St Rep 76th - Covers Western Grand Rapids - Strongly democrat, and has been for a long time. Roy Schmidt is the incumbent.

St Rep 76th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Tonnemacher/Schmidt	7,049	23,416	2362	32,827	-16367	21.47%	71.33%	-49.86%
06 - Liberski/Sak	6,119	17,825	540	24,484	-11706	24.99%	72.80%	-47.81%
04 - Zuidema/Sak	9,591	21,091	600	31,282	-11500	30.66%	67.42%	-36.76%
02 - Kuibik/Sak	7,216	11,770	405	19,391	-4554	37.21%	60.70%	-23.49%

St Rep 75th - Covers Eastern Grand Rapids - Has recently rapidly shifted blue, although it ticket splitted for awhile, even as John Kerry won it by over 4000 votes (and Obama much more than that). The question is whether the bleeding can or has been stopped here.

St Rep 75th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Tietema/Dean	16,950	24,683	880	42,513	-7733	39.87%	58.06%	-18.19%
06 - Doyle/Dean	15,964	17,465	592	34,021	-1501	46.92%	51.34%	-4.41%
04 - Kooiman/Vogt	21,273	19,465		40,738	1808	52.22%	47.78%	4.44%
02 - Kooiman/Vander Meulen	15,340	12,737		28,077	2603	54.64%	45.36%	9.27%

St Rep 74 -Covers Alpine Twp and the City of Grandville in Kent County and the City of Coopersville, Crokckery Twp, Georgetown Twp, Polkton Twp, Tallmadge Twp, and Wright Twp in Ottawa County. Only Grandville is in the 3rd District.

St Rep 74th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Agema/Chase	36,207	13,421	1911	51,539	22786	70.25%	26.04%	44.21%
06 - Agema/Kauffman	30,495	12,109	880	43,484	18386	70.13%	27.85%	42.28%
04 - VanRegenmorter/Sloboda	38,380	12,009	719	51,108	26371	75.10%	23.50%	51.60%
02 - VanRegenmorter/Barringer	28,234	7,492	407	36,133	20742	78.14%	20.73%	57.40%

St Rep 73 - Covers Algoma Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Sparty Twp, Spencer Twp, and Tyrone Twp in Kent County. It's a district with strong GOP leanings, although the dems were high on Bruce Hawley in 08 looking for an upset. Tom Pearce was held to 59% and it opens up in 2010. This can be a darkhorse. Hawley took Tyrone Twp (which went for McCain) and Cedar Springs, and made it close in Sparta. Considering Pearce's old numbers, I don't think it was Pearce.

St Rep 73rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Pearce/Hawley	31,757	20,624	1516	53,897	11133	58.92%	38.27%	20.66%
06 - Pearce/Marckini	28,636	14,714	1010	44,360	13922	64.55%	33.17%	31.38%
04 - Pearce/Clowney	35,035	15,277	1179	51,491	19758	68.04%	29.67%	38.37%
02 - Hart/Clowney	24,370	9,845	628	34,843	14525	69.94%	28.26%	41.69%

St Rep 72nd - Covers Caledonia Twp, Cascade Twp, Gaines Twp, and Kentwood. Solidly GOP. Justin Amash won it despite barely winning Kentwood as an open seat. The townships are still safely GOP.

St Rep 72nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Amash/Abbasse	31,245	18,463	1559	51,267	12782	60.95%	36.01%	24.93%
06 - Steil Jr./Hinton	27,005	13,055	1091	41,151	13950	65.62%	31.72%	33.90%
04 - Steil Jr./Burke	33,283	14,594	765	48,642	18689	68.42%	30.00%	38.42%
02 - Steil Jr./Vogt	24,166	8,391	655	33,212	15775	72.76%	25.26%	47.50%

St Rep 70 - Covers Montcalm and Part of Ionia County - This should be a competitive seat. If the GOP is going to take back the state house, this is a good first target.

St Rep 70th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Ginster/Huckleberry	16,234	18,983		35,217	-2749	46.10%	53.90%	-7.81%
06 - Emmons/Mahar	18,382	10,704		29,086	7678	63.20%	36.80%	26.40%
04 - Emmons/Sanchez	22,774	11,732		34,506	11042	66.00%	34.00%	32.00%
02 - Emmons/Sanchez	14,610	7,588		22,198	7022	65.82%	34.18%	31.63%

This district should be safe as long as Ehlers is running for re-election.  After that, it depends on dynamics of the state and who the candidate is. If the GOP stops the bleeding in Kent County, we'll be fine. 08 was the perfect storm. Bush is unpopular, and stepped down. McCain's support among conservatives was lukewarm. McCain not only quit campaigning in Michigan, one of his staffers was a dumbass and announced it to the world ticking off independents. This was in 08. Today, Obama's popularity has gone down. Granholm is as popular as Bush was, and things are starting to level out, even in the Northeast. How that translates to Michigan 2010, we don't know.

What I mentioned in the 2nd District and Muskegon County applies here too. Stop the bleeding. If Kent returns to 2000 form, we have a chance to take the gubernatorial race. We need a good 60% here. If it's less than 55%, Cherry (or Dillon) wins.

Updated 5-18-2010 - There's a primary on both sides. Five way on the GOP side, and one on one with the dems. Three of the GOP candidates are fairly well known, although anything can happen in a five way race. Regardless of the result, we should keep this district.