Congressional District 3 - Updated 2014 (MI-03)

2014 Update:
Brian Ellis is challenging Justin Amash in the primary. Ellis is running as an establishment social conservative attacking Amash on his abortion and 2nd Amendment votes. Bob Goodrich is a dem sacrificial lamb candidate. The primary could be quite interesting. Amash has a major following, but a lot of detractors as well.

MI-03 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

Incumbent – Justin Amash (R-Cascade Twp)

Years in office as of 2014 election - 4.

Challengers – Brian Ellis (R-Grand Rapids), Bob Goodrich (D-Kentwood)

2012:

Justin Amash – 171675 – 52.62%

Steve Pestka – 144108 – 44.17%

27567 vote difference

Romney – 177789 votes – 53.12%

Obama – 153081 votes – 45.74%

29325 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 170694 votes – 48.60%

Obama – 174464 votes – 49.67%

-3770 vote difference

2004:

Bush – 193901 votes – 57.04%

Kerry – 141555 votes – 41.64%

38808 vote difference

Some pundits that don’t know Michigan always claim that Grand Rapids is the capital of “Republican West Michigan.” That’s not true (Ottawa County is). That hasn’t been true in a long time, if it was even true to begin with. The big Kent County strength of the GOP is in the suburbs. 2/3 of the vote in this district is in Kent County. Redistricting took two of the marginal suburbs out and into the MI-02. However, tougher Calhoun county was added instead. Barry and Ionia Counties are solidly GOP and added. Montcalm County’s Eureka Twp was also added.

A lot of work needs to be done here. In order for Michigan to be competitive statewide again, we need to at least get this back to the Bush numbers in Calhoun, Ionia, and Barry Counties, and better than that in Kent County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code.

70%+Dem – Black

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – White

Top of the ticket R’s have taken a beating here compared to the old days. Kent County used to be a 60%+ county for years. Bush was held under 60% twice, winning by about 54,000 (countywide) both times. McCain lost Kent County completely along with the district. That was a disaster. He quit. Michigan hates quitters. Aberration. Romney was held to 53 and won by 17000 in Kent County. Bush had 58% and won by over twice that. Districtwide, Bush won with 57% and had twice what Romney had in the vote spread.

Kent County is 2/3 of the district. Romney recovered some from  McCain’s cratering here, but he did get less votes than him in Lowell. He also only got 400 more votes than him in Grand Rapids. Obama lost ground there, but here’s a comparison. Romney 28772 (35.73%), McCain 28372 (33.00%), Bush 36115 (43.61%). Bush ran about 7000 votes higher in outer Kent County (within the district) than Romney. There’s your main difference in the district.  The only reliable democrat area in the county is the City of Grand Rapids (and arguably now Kentwood in MI-02).

To the east is Ionia County which is between Lansing and Grand Rapids along I-96. It’s most known for the prison. It’s a base R county, although Bush did significantly better here than Romney and especially McCain. McCain was held to a 1500 vote spread. Romney 3300. Bush 6000. North Plains Township is the only area that went D the last three presidential elections, although Obama took Belding and Ionia twice (Bush won it). I’m not sure what’s significant about that area to make it so dem. Bush made it close and lost it by 25 votes. Romney lost it by 89 and McCain 128. Alamingly, Romney had only 150 more raw votes than McCain in the county even though he got 55.57% here to McCain’s 51.64%. Bush got over 60%. Romney had less votes in Belding, Boston Twp, Ionia, Ionia Twp (still flipped it from 08), Odessa Twp, and Orange Twp than McCain despite his percentages being better than McCain in all of them.  Portland on the east is closer to Lansing than Grand Rapids, so this area is influenced by two other areas.

Southwest of Ionia County is Barry County. It’s the county that is the crossroads of several cities in Michigan. Lansing to Kalamazoo/Battle Creek. Grand Rapids to Jackson. It’s usually a base R county. Bush got 59.51% here. McCain cratered here like most of West Michigan getting 53.75%, but Romney in percentage recovered most of it getting 58.41% here. However, Romney still only got 230 more votes than McCain. Obama just lost 2000 votes. McCain had more raw votes in Assyria twp, Castleton Twp, Hastings, Johnstown Twp, Maple Grove Twp, Orangeville Twp, Prairieville Twp, and Yankee Springs Twp. Hastings is quite alarming as Bush won it with 55.72% and Obama won it twice. This is a key county where we need to do well in order to win statewide.

To the South is Calhoun County, a quintessential swing county along the I-94 corridor. It voted for Gore narrowly, Bush narrowly, and Obama twice, narrowly the 2^nd time. It voted for dem Mark Schauer several times, but followed up with Mike Nofs, a moderate republican (Social conservative, pro-union) several times. It voted for Granholm and Mike Cox (over Gary Peters) in the same election back in 2002. To say that this is a key county is an understatement. Bush won the county by 2200 votes (51.21%) in 2004. 32093 votes to Kerry’s 29891. In 2004, McCain got 28553 and lost the county by 6000 votes. Obama had less votes than John Kerry the 2^nd time, but Romney had less votes than McCain. Obama won the 2^nd time by 934 votes (50.18%). Romney only had 28333 votes. That is not a recipe for victory – even as he ran 4% ahead of McCain.

There’s two major democrat areas in Calhoun County. Battle Creek and vicinity is the most well known (and Springfield/Bedford Twp might as well be Battle Creek). Battle Creek is democrat but not to the extent of many other core Michigan cities. Kerry only had 52.66% here. Nofs has won it in the past. Obama got 60.20% and later 57.72%, which is fairly high for the city. Bush got 46.60%, Romney 41.29%. Springfield is more dem than Battle Creek which is somewhat surprisingly since its whiter. Bush came within 3 votes of winning Bedford Twp. The big problem from a per capita standpoint is Albion. Albion is forgotten and much smaller, but the dems in 2004 had a bigger vote spread there (-1278) than Battle Creek (-1269). Kerry got 70.11% there, and Obama 77.39% and 75.80%. Blacks, unions, and Albion college. Marshall is competitive and leans slightly R. Most of the rural areas here are solidly R. They help counter Albion/Battle creek and make this a competitive county.

Overall this district leans R. Amash ran similar to Romney, so he probably has this district unless someone strong primaries him. That is unless we get another wave year like 2008. The key in this district is to drive up the vote in the Kent County suburbs, get Bush numbers in Calhoun, Ionia, and Barry Counties, and to stop the bleeding in Grand Rapids. 

District 3
	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Barry County:
Assyria Twp	608	344	967	264	62.87%	35.57%
Baltimore Twp	512	355	879	157	58.25%	40.39%
Barry Twp	970	707	1708	263	56.79%	41.39%
Carlton Twp	734	469	1216	265	60.36%	38.57%
Castleton Twp	684	591	1289	93	53.06%	45.85%
Hastings	1453	1520	3020	-67	48.11%	50.33%
Hastings Twp	783	584	1383	199	56.62%	42.23%
Hope Twp	841	673	1540	168	54.61%	43.70%
Irving Twp	1049	496	1562	553	67.16%	31.75%
Johnstown Twp	844	625	1482	219	56.95%	42.17%
Maple Grove Twp	411	249	669	162	61.43%	37.22%
Orangeville Twp	806	691	1532	115	52.61%	45.10%
Prairieville Twp	922	826	1769	96	52.12%	46.69%
Rutland Twp	1207	841	2068	366	58.37%	40.67%
Thornapple Twp	2662	1233	3938	1429	67.60%	31.31%
Woodland Twp	649	419	1078	230	60.20%	38.87%
Yankee Springs Twp	1520	871	2412	649	63.02%	36.11%
Total	16655	11494	28512	5161	58.41%	40.31%
Calhoun County
Albion	684	2233	2946	-1549	23.22%	75.80%
Albion Twp	293	245	548	48	53.47%	44.71%
Athens twp	681	448	1147	233	59.37%	39.06%
Battle Creek	8574	11984	20764	-3410	41.29%	57.72%
Bedford Twp	2093	2201	4361	-108	47.99%	50.47%
Burlington Twp	515	348	880	167	58.52%	39.55%
Clarence Twp	601	368	985	233	61.02%	37.36%
Clarendon Twp	309	179	500	130	61.80%	35.80%
Convis Twp	437	286	731	151	59.78%	39.12%
Eckord Twp	492	234	734	258	67.03%	31.88%
Emmett Twp	2818	2330	5218	488	54.01%	44.65%
Fredonia Twp	504	312	835	192	60.36%	37.37%
Homer Twp	591	436	1041	155	56.77%	41.88%
Lee Twp	330	181	519	149	63.58%	34.87%
Leroy Twp	1354	774	2152	580	62.92%	35.97%
Marengo Twp	613	361	990	252	61.92%	36.46%
Marshall	1751	1621	3418	130	51.23%	47.43%
Marshall twp	1042	673	1732	369	60.16%	38.86%
Newton Twp	936	552	1500	384	62.40%	36.80%
Pennfield twp	2324	1926	4311	398	53.91%	44.68%
Sheridan Twp	407	345	763	62	53.34%	45.22%
Springfield	620	893	1538	-273	40.31%	58.06%
Tekonsha Twp	364	337	713	27	51.05%	47.27%
Total	28333	29267	58326	-934	48.58%	50.18%
Ionia County
Belding	905	1095	2047	-190	44.21%	53.49%
Berlin Twp	674	390	1073	284	62.81%	36.35%
Boston Twp	1628	987	2647	641	61.50%	37.29%
Campbell Twp	852	344	1205	508	70.71%	28.55%
Danby Twp	863	596	1482	267	58.23%	40.22%
Easton Twp	759	619	1405	140	54.02%	44.06%
Ionia	938	1198	2175	-260	43.13%	55.08%
Ionia Twp	742	672	1429	70	51.92%	47.03%
Keene Twp	580	292	887	288	65.39%	32.92%
Lyons Twp	834	688	1552	146	53.74%	44.33%
North Plains Twp	218	307	536	-89	40.67%	57.28%
Odessa Twp	1078	663	1782	415	60.49%	37.21%
Orange Twp	330	202	548	128	60.22%	36.86%
Orleans Twp	562	480	1056	82	53.22%	45.45%
Otisco Twp	628	424	1075	204	58.42%	39.44%
Portland	923	869	1820	54	50.71%	47.75%
Portland Twp	1023	666	1711	357	59.79%	38.92%
Ronald Twp	411	367	793	44	51.83%	46.28%
Sebewa Twp	367	159	537	208	68.34%	29.61%
Total	14315	11018	25760	3297	55.57%	42.77%
Kent County
Ada Twp	5193	2671	7920	2522	65.57%	33.72%
Algoma Twp	3621	1742	5409	1879	66.94%	32.21%
Alpine Twp	3156	2860	6104	296	51.70%	46.85%
Bowne Twp	1350	448	1816	902	74.34%	24.67%
Byron Twp	8656	2845	11577	5811	74.77%	24.57%
Caledonia Twp	4918	1966	6946	2952	70.80%	28.30%
Cannon Twp	5624	2482	8171	3142	68.83%	30.38%
Cascade Twp	7252	3540	10857	3712	66.80%	32.61%
Cedar Springs	635	520	1172	115	54.18%	44.37%
Courtland Twp	2825	1399	4274	1426	66.10%	32.73%
East Grand Rapids	3521	3361	6916	160	50.91%	48.60%
Gaines Twp	7868	4308	12264	3560	64.16%	35.13%
Grand Rapids	28772	50739	80536	-21967	35.73%	63.00%
Grand Rapids Twp	6338	3803	10213	2535	62.06%	37.24%
Grattan Twp	1371	795	2191	576	62.57%	36.28%
Lowell	917	807	1751	110	52.37%	46.09%
Lowell Twp	1894	1127	3057	767	61.96%	36.87%
Nelson Twp	1302	792	2124	510	61.30%	37.29%
Oakfield Twp	1723	1185	2941	538	58.59%	40.29%
Plainfield Twp	10727	6965	17871	3762	60.02%	38.97%
Rockford	1732	1211	2967	521	58.38%	40.82%
Solon Twp	1734	1023	2790	711	62.15%	36.67%
Sparta Twp	2374	1561	3983	813	59.60%	39.19%
Spencer Twp	1041	755	1825	286	57.04%	41.37%
Tyrone Twp	1228	695	1943	533	63.20%	35.77%
Vergennes Twp	1686	802	2505	884	67.31%	32.02%
Total	117458	100402	220123	17056	53.36%	45.61%
Montcalm County
Eureka Twp	1028	900	1945	128	52.85%	46.27%
Total All	177789	153081	334666	24708	53.12%	45.74%

Debt Ceiling Agreement - Not Good Enough

There's a debt ceiling agreement. It's yet another half-assed measure. It's not good enough. I don't give a damn about how it was supposedly routine in the past. It should not have been routine, then either.

The only thing acceptable to me is a balanced budget that doesn't raise taxes.

I understand that when you control one house, that you sometimes take what you can get. That was the view of normally strong conservatives Mike Pence and Tim Walberg, who voted for this. It was the view of Paul Ryan and Mike Rogers as well. The reality is this. Nothing significant on the debt will be done as long as the senate and presidency is held by the democrats. In addition, even if republicans control all branches of government, nothing will be done fiscally if Bush types control the purse-strings. ALL of them failed. Bush, Frist, and Hastert set records in 06. Bush, Pelosi, McCain, Obama, and Reid shattered the records in 07-08. Obama, Reid, and Pelosi shattered those records. Now this may possibly be a 1/4 step back to either the 08 levels. The folks that passed that are CELEBRATING this? I can respect a vote for this if it had the truth as a comment. "I voted for this because it sucks less than other options like a default and it is the only thing we could get past Reid and Obama." That's basically what Mike Pence said, calling this a "modest first step".


Walberg's office said this.

Washington, DC - Today, Congressman Tim Walberg released the following statement:

"The President with the support of the previous Congress has spent a trillion dollars on a failed stimulus and trillions on a government takeover of healthcare. In less than a year, this Republican-led House has made significant progress to reverse course. We have passed a budget that cuts more than $38 billion for 2011, the first six spending bills for 2012 that return to pre-bailout, pre-stimulus levels, and the Ryan Budget that will save $5.8 trillion over ten years."

"Unfortunately, the president and majority in the Senate fail to understand the true meaning of fiscal responsibility, but with the pressure of the American people, we have at least brought them to agree to $2.1 trillion in spending cuts, including two-thirds of the discretionary cuts in the Ryan budget, and a vote on the Balanced Budget Amendment. The plan that passed tonight is one more step that Congress has taken to end the culture of government overspending and rapidly mounting debt. But this is not the end, and it's clear a true solution will not occur until America has a fiscally responsible president. I will continue to work to solve our government's debt addiction and encourage job creation so that America can maintain its greatness."

Background Facts:

· At least $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years. $917 billion immediately and at least an additional $1.2 trillion either through the work of a joint congressional committee or as across the board reductions.
· This legislation achieves two-thirds of the discretionary spending cuts contained in the Paul Ryan Budget.
· No tax increases. The legislation contains zero tax increases and due to budgetary procedures, it will be practically impossible for the joint committee to propose tax increases. The bill is silent on expiring tax cuts.
· Guaranteed vote in the House and Senate on a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution.

I like Tim Walberg, but this isn't good enough.

• 1 Trillion immediately? That's the deficit of less than a year of spending.
• 10 Years is a joke. It's nothing, frankly.
• A promise of a vote on the balanced budget amendment is nothing.
• Tax cuts that expire are a tax increase.

From the Argus

About $900 billion would be cut over 10 years through spending caps. Another $1.5 trillion would be sought this fall by a special committee with unique power to force congressional action. If it fails to reach that goal, spending could be cut by $1.2 trillion automatically, divided equally between defense and domestic programs.

Ten years of chump change (relatively speaking)? What a joke. That'll get trumped by the interest alone.

Justin Amash's office has this to say.

As I have said consistently since before I was a Representative in Congress, I will not consider voting to raise the federal government’s debt ceiling unless the vote is tied to fundamental reform such as a repeal of the President’s onerous healthcare legislation or passage of a well-structured balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.

“I am open to a compromise that includes some of the elements of the House and Senate plans, but it must also include structural reforms that actually would pull us back from the government’s looming fiscal crisis.

“The House’s Budget Control Act raises the government’s debt ceiling by $900 billion but requires no structural reforms and only $25 billion in cuts next year. It includes a mere pledge to pass a balanced budget amendment in exchange for authorizing another $1.6 trillion of debt next year. The pledge is not binding. It can be ignored at any time.

“It is wrong to continue to burden our children and grandchildren with trillions upon trillions of dollars of debt. Time is up. Congress cannot wait any longer to act responsibly and begin to address its addiction to reckless spending.”

That I agree with. There shouldn't even be discussion of "2008 levels" like it's a benchmark. The 2008 levels suck. Government needs to live within its means, and that means a balanced budget is required without raising taxes. Anything else is unacceptable.

Congressional District 3 - Redistricted (MI-03)

Incumbent - Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2.

Challenger - Steve Pestka (D-Ada)

Update 8/30/2012 - Amash vs Pestka will face each other in an interesting matchup.

Update 5-16-2012 - The dems will have an interesting moderate vs leftist primary with the winner facing libertarian Amash. This could have some hard feelings in the aftermath. I think Pestka would be the strongest challenge the dems could bring. Amash isn't liked in the establishment, but on the other hand does have some strong core support.

There's some subtle, but significant changes to this district. It's still Kent County based, but sheds Grandville, Wyoming, Walker, and Kentwood to the 2nd District. Kentwood and Wyoming went for Obama. Walker was close. Grandville was solid red. It gains Alpine Township (went for Obama), all of Solon Twp, Sparta Township and Tyrone Township in Kent County, all of which went for McCain. It keeps GOP leaning Ionia and Barry Counties. Most significantly, it gains all of Calhoun County, a swing area, from Tim Walberg (and a couple of rural townships from Upton)

That's potentially bad news for this district, but someone had to take Calhoun County (with Mark Schauer and Mr thinks his bleep don't stink Joe Schwarz), a major thorn in the side of Tim Walberg. Amash drew the short straw and may have to contend with Schauer, Schwarz, or Kate Segal, not to mention some establishment types in Kent County which do not like his more paleo-conservative views compared to the more liberal Ehlers.

I have some concerns with this district. Obama did extremely well in Kent County in 08, being the first democrat to win it in a long, long time. It's been getting more competitive the last 8 years, largely due to Grand Rapids moving from slightly blue to strong democrat, and places like Kentwood, East Grand Rapids, and Wyoming becoming very competitive. The old district overall, including Barry and Ionia Counties had a 2300 vote spread for McCain and 64000 vote spread for Bush. The current one has a 3600 vote spread for Obama and 52000 vote spread for Bush. Amash has a 38000 vote spread in 08 in portions which still represented. This doesn't include Calhoun County.

I expect a tough battle for Amash in 2012. He beat two establishment guys in 2010 with his tea party support. He also announced he was running before Ehlers retired. He was willing to primary the incumbent. There were some defections to the democrat because Amash wasn't part of "the inner circle." It would not surprise me is the dems try and make a run, especially if there's a primary. I think Amash is favored, but I'd call this a lean GOP seat and not a safe one, at least for now. Amash took one for the team in redistricting.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry	16431	13449	29880	2982	54.99%	45.01%	9.98%
Calhoun	28553	34561	63114	-6008	45.24%	54.76%	-9.52%
Ionia	14156	12565	26721	1591	52.98%	47.02%	5.95%
Kent	148336	149909	298245	-1573	49.74%	50.26%	-0.53%
Grandville	-5555	-3209	-8764	-2346	63.38%	36.62%	26.77%
Kentwood	-10636	-12587	-23223	1951	45.80%	54.20%	-8.40%
Walker	-6499	-5648	-12147	-851	53.50%	46.50%	7.01%
Wyoming	-15042	-15682	-30724	640	48.96%	51.04%	-2.08%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	169744	173358	343102	-3614	49.47%	50.53%	-1.05%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry	18638	11312	29950	7326	62.23%	37.77%	24.46%
Calhoun	32093	29891	61984	2202	51.78%	48.22%	3.55%
Ionia	16621	10647	27268	5974	60.95%	39.05%	21.91%
Kent	171201	116909	288110	54292	59.42%	40.58%	18.84%
Grandville	-6567	-2397	-8964	-4170	73.26%	26.74%	46.52%
Kentwood	-13014	-9126	-22140	-3888	58.78%	41.22%	17.56%
Walker	-7528	-4472	-12000	-3056	62.73%	37.27%	25.47%
Wyoming	-18524	-11979	-30503	-6545	60.73%	39.27%	21.46%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	192920	140785	333705	52135	57.81%	42.19%	15.62%
2010	Amash	Miles	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry	13042	6878	19920	6164	65.47%	34.53%	30.94%
Calhoun			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ionia	11321	5989	17310	5332	65.40%	34.60%	30.80%
Kent	109351	71086	180437	38265	60.60%	39.40%	21.21%
Grandville	-4288	-1607	-5895	-2681	72.74%	27.26%	45.48%
Kentwood	-8028	-5828	-13856	-2200	57.94%	42.06%	15.88%
Walker	-5036	-2714	-7750	-2322	64.98%	35.02%	29.96%
Wyoming	-10931	-6514	-17445	-4417	62.66%	37.34%	25.32%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	105431	67290	172721	38141	61.04%	38.96%	22.08%

Areas to watch in Michigan for Election Day Results

Who knows what's going to happen tomorrow. Here's the current score. 0-0. All of the state level seats are up for contest, except some trustee and judicial seats.

We're playing offense on the state house a mix of offense and defense on the state senate, as well as the statewide and congressional seats. All of the areas are important, but there are a few counties to keep an eye on for the seats in play.

1. Parts of the UP, particularly Chippewa, Mackinac, Delta, Menominee, Dickinson, and Iron Counties. Those are competitive counties, but three seats, maybe four or five if we're super lucky, are in play up there. Dan Benishek in MI-01, Tom Casperson for State Senate in the 38th district, and possibly three state rep seats up there, although I think we have a good chance at one of them. Iron County leans slightly democrat, but Benishek is from there. Chippewa and Mackinac slightly Republican, but McDowell's from there. The triangle of Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta counties swing the UP, and will be the biggest factor in who wins this congressional district. I think Beniskek wins this seat narrowly. 49-47-5 for 3rd parties.

2. Kent County. We have a tough defense for state senate here and a darkhorse defense for Ehlers seat. Some of the old time Kent County establishment Republicans are often "different" and are much more liberal (outside the life issue) than the average population. It's not an accident than Kent County local government has been one of the five most anti-gun counties in the state. The establishment there is rather hostile to small l libertarianism. That is making it more difficult than the past for this defense. I think this year though was the right year for a principled libertarian-conservative like Justin Amash. He's getting a battle in the general, although his convincing primary win sent a strong message to the establishment there. The people are in charge, not the self-proclaimed elite. I think Amash wins by 10-15% (my gut feeling, no poll evidence). It's not Ehlers numbers, but it'll be in line with an average top of the ticket (Snyder should do better here - 25% win there since he'll get the Ehlers type votes as well as conservatives because of Virg). I think 08's an aberration. I do think Amash does better in Barry and Ionia County though, than Kent County. We need a 60% win though for Johnson and Schuette.

3. Jackson County. Jackson County is what I'd classify as conservative independent. It's important statewide. It's populist, socially conservative, and distrustful of both big government and big business. It has both democrat strongholds (City of Jackson) and republican strongholds (Spring Arbor), but even in those strongholds, there's a lot of independents. As Jackson County goes, usually so does the 7th Congressional district. Jackson voted against the incumbent in 2006 primary and in 2008. Can Walberg win back Jackson County? If he does, he'll likely win. If not, Schauer will survive. There's also two key state rep districts based in Jackson County. Those will be key if the GOP is taking back the house. 55%+ would be real good.

4. Monroe County. It's a swing County that voted for Gore, Posthumus, Bush, Granholm, and Obama. Dingell's won there with big margins as well. If Dr Rob Steele (best candidate in a long time) is going to upset Dingell, he'll need to get big numbers in this part of the district, probably close to 60%. There's also two potentially competitive state rep districts here too. It's a must win county statewide. 53% would be real good.

5. Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, Waterford, Royal Oak, Clawson. Those are all key in Oakland County. If Royal Oak and West Bloomfield are close (I expect them to stay dem, but to what degree), we could be looking at blowouts and you can say an early congratulations to Congressman Rocky, and one if not two new GOP state reps. If Farmington Hills and Clawson is close (if they're going GOP, Rocky wins), it could be a long night with potential recounts, but promising results for Rocky (he'll need big help from Troy then). If Waterford is more populist and close, but has trended GOP lately outside of the 06/08 disasters. I'd like to see a win in Farmington Hills, 46%+ in West Bloomfield, 54%+ in Waterford, 46%+ in Royal Oak, and a win in Clawson. I think any of those will assure a pickup.

6. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, St Clair Shores. Those are three of the key areas in Macomb County. Those will determine who wins Macomb County overall, and in Clinton Twp's case, probably who'll take the state. There's three, maybe four if lucky, competitive state rep districts there. There's a fifth competitive seat in North Macomb that was lost in the 2008 clustermuck (Despite McCain winning the district). That one should be ours. I'd like to see 53%+ in S. Heights, and a win of any margin in Clinton Township and St Clair Shores

7. Lake Michigan Coast - Can we stop the 06/08 bleeding there. If so, bye Dan Scripps. Those should be 54%+ GOP counties from Oceana up to Leelanau. Benzie's the toughest.

8. Thumb, especially Tuscola and Huron Counties - This conservative populist area is extremely independent and loyal to no party. Even some 60% GOP areas at the top of the ticket will ticket split. Sanillac County's rep should flip with locally popular Espinoza termed out. Mike Green is the best candidate for the state senate district. He'll have to rack up big numbers in the thumb to counter Bay County, home of the populist socially moderate democrats. Green (best) can exceed Mayes (good) on the gun issue, and he's also carried a union card. This may be a pickup. We may take Terry Brown's seat as well, although that won't be easy. Like the sunrise coast and the UP, the top of the ticket doesn't tell the story here.

9. Western/Southernmost Wayne County. Two state senate seats and three state rep seats are up for grabs. Keep an eye on Canton Twp (Swings), Van Buren Twp (Dem leaning), Plymouth (city swings, Twp GOP), Northville, Wayne (dem, but by how much), Westland (dem, by how much), Garden City (dem, by how much) Livonia (slight GOP lean), Trenton (slight dem), Huron Twp (swing) and Gibraltar (slight dem). If any of those "dem by how much" areas are close or slight dem areas flipping, there will be some pickups. I'd like to see 54%+ in Canton, any win in Van Buren Twp, 60%+ in Plymouth Twp, 52%+ in Plymouth City, 60%+ in Northville, 42%+ in Wayne, 43%+ in Westland, 48%+ in Garden City, 55%+ in Livonia, any win in Trenton, 52%+ in Huron Twp, and any win in Gibralter.

10. Sunrise Coast - There's a string of swing counties from Presque Isle and Alpena down the Lake Huron Coast and over to the Saginaw Bay/West Branch area. Clare and Roscommon Counties aren't part of this area geographically, but are attached to the state rep districts here and are similar in politics. Populist. We have a tough defense (Tim Moore's open seat) and a longshot (due to the Sheltrown name) pickup opportunity here, along with the Alpena based open seat that's been close but democrat for several years. There's a darkhorse defense for state senate as well that I'm not ready to put in the safe column yet.

11. Isabella County. Probably on paper, our toughest state rep defense. Mt Pleasant is soldly dem, and the surrounding area is marginally republican. Any win in Isabella County is a positive. Rural Midland gives us a small cushion to work with for the state rep district.

12. Rural Washtenaw County. Implications for Tim Walberg, Dr Rob Steele, and an open state rep seat which is a tough offense. The swing townships in Walberg's district are Northfield, Manchester, Saline (city), Sylvan, and Dexter. Scio is a democrat stronghold, and Salem a Republican one. If the swing areas go our way along with big numbers in Manchester (or losses cut in Scio Twp), we have a shot at picking up the Byrnes seat, along with a sure thing with the Walberg seat as this is his weaker area.

13. Eaton County - Very difficult to read. Blue steak in 02, 06, and 08, but a red streak in 2004. A lot of state workers live here, although it's much more conservative socially than Ingham County next door. However, it's got a strong labor streak. The state rep district is a potentially tough defense, and Walberg's economic libertarianism didn't sell here twice, although his social views are more of a positive here outside of maybe Delta Township. This will be interesting to watch.

14. Van Buren County - Classic Swing County with state rep, state senate, and statewide implications. Must win for all of them.

15. Saginaw, Bay, Clinton, St Clair, Counties. If democrats lose Saginaw and Bay Counties (Dem lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts. If the GOP loses Clinton and St Clair Counties (GOP lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts.

Locally, Hamburg Township, City of Howell, Green Oak Township, Putnam Township, City of Brighton. If the democrats want to take any commissioner or state rep seats, they'll have to win all of those areas and win them big (better than 06 or 08). Not this year. If Cindy Denby keeps it even, let alone a win, in Howell City, Putnam Township, or Hamburg Township (marginal areas), it's over. Post won't break 40% in the Fowlerville or Hartland areas. $30,000+ down the drain for Post. Same goes for Tianen in Putnam Twp who won't come close in Marion Township. I've only seen one McBride sign in Green Oak at the home of democrat activists. Jack LaBelle doesn't campaign much, but people have voted for him for years, and he gets a lot of crossover and independent votes, which is important in marginal Green Oak. I haven't seen anything in the Hamburg commissioner district, and that's the least Republican. Kelly Raskauskas is running an aggressive race, but even in the Obama year, that was a 55% GOP district (62%+ in 04) due to most of Genoa Township in that district. I think this will be Irene Cahill v Bill Rogers 2.0 (from 2002) in results. As someone who has lived most of his life in that district, I called that race a pipedream in May. I still think it is.

Countywide, I'll be quite unhappy if Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson don't break 63%. Around that number is a magic number for statewide wins. I'd like to see Denby and both of the Rogers brothers to break 65%, and I expect a clean sweep of the commissioner seats. I thought two districts were winnable for the dems this year, but their strongest candidates are in two of the stronger GOP districts. Morris is probably the strongest as a candidate (probably most electable of the bunch), but his district is one of the two most GOP. Raskauskas is the 2nd strongest (Best organized, but not moderate enough). If either ran in Hamburg, I'd be concerned. Still, I wouldn't grade their electability in the range of the late Jake Donahue (who won), Robert Reddinger (who almost won in a conservative area), or even in Matt Evans range (ran ahead of the top of the ticket). Garry Post concerned me with his money. A moderate like Matt Evans or most of all, Robert Reddinger with $40,000 to spend and Raskauskas's organizational ability wouldn't concern me. It would scare me, especially if they kept Judy Daubenmeier in check.

Countywide, 63% is the magic number to watch for the statewide seats. We'll be in good shape to win if that's the number.

(MI-03) - Bill Hardiman and Steve Heacock are in

We officially have a primary on the way in the 3rd district which opened with Vern Ehlers retiring. Bill Hardiman, state senator and former Kentwood mayor has jumped in, and is probably the favorite on paper. The other candidate to jump in is Steve Heacock, a former county commissioner. I don't know much about Heacock. Hardiman is a moderate republican in the mold of Ehlers. Justin Amash jumped in before Ehlers retired and is a strong fiscal conservative.

Sikkema and Land not running probably helps Hardiman. Zandstra not running helps Amash. Will others go for it? This primary will be a very interesting one.

MI-03 - Terri Lynn Land not running for Congress (Nor is Zandstra)

There's a lot of speculation going on with the open 3rd district race. So far, the only announced candidate is State Rep. Justin Amash. Some speculation centered on Terri Lynn Land, but that was shot down quickly.From Grand Rapids Press

Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is not going to run for the Congressional seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers, a spokesman said today. "Right now, she's focused on being part of Mike Bouchard's team for governor," spokesperson Matt Golden said.
Land, a Kent County Republican, who is term-limited as Secretary of State, committed last fall to being Oakland County Sheriff's gubernatorial running mate.

Also according to the Western  Right blog, Jerry Zandstra is not running either. State Rep Dave Agema endorsed his colleague Amash.

Three names I keep hearing are Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, and Bill Hardiman. Hardiman got a LOT of establishment support when he ran for State Senate in 2002, but will that transfer to Congress.since a lot of people have their eye on this spot.

Interestingly, there's already a poll from John Yob. Thanks to John for releasing this. From Grand Rapids Press

GOP strategist John Yob did a quick telephone poll of 1,230 likely GOP primary voters Tuesday evening when it became apparent U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers would resign his seat. Here's what his "snapshot" of the "starting gate" showed: Possible candidate: (Voters) Percentage
Bill Hardiman: (229) 19%
Ken Sikkema: (163) 13%
Terri Lynn Land: (151) 12%
Dave Hildenbrand: (129) 10%
Mark Jansen: (90) 8%
Justin Amash: (81) 7%
Brian Calley: (67) 5%
Kevin Green: (33) 3%
Jerry Zandstra: (27) 2%
Undecided: (252) 20%

Terri Land and Jerry Zandstra can be taken off the list. Dave Hildenbrand has announced for Hardiman's old State Senate seat, the 29th. Dave's a sharp guy, going back to his days with Posthumus. He's got a tough district, but if anyone can win there, he can. Does he switch races by finishing fourth in Yob's poll? I think it depends on who jumps in.

Interestingly, nobody from Ionia County was in the poll. I'd watch for geography to factor in this race. Ionia and Barry Counties, Grand Rapids itself. Eastern burbs (Kentwood, Lowell), Western Burbs (Grandville, Wyoming, Walker), and the Northern and Southern more rural areas. I'll almost bet money that the democrat running will be from Grand Rapids itself.

It'll be interesting to watch.

Bernero jumps in for governor, 3rd District (MI-03) opens?

Some major news in the works.

First, in a surprise to few, Lansing Mayor and former State Senator/State Rep Virg Bernero is running for governor. That makes things interesting. Virg is unknown outside of the Lansing area, but that won't be the case for long. He has a lot of detractors and supporters. One thing I will respect about Virg is that he doesn't mince words much and isn't afraid of speaking his mind. I think he's a real threat to win, much more than any of the names mentioned by the democrats so far. Andy Dillon, Denise Ilitch, Alma Smith, Bob "I don't live in Michigan" Bowman. Virg will work hard and if he loses, it won't be because of lazy campaigning. The GOP is going to have to bring it, no matter who the nominee is on either side, but especially if it's Virg, because he'll be bringing it. I guarantee people will know who he is by the time the primary ends.

Secondly, Justin Amash, a state rep from Kent County has announced he is running for the 3rd Congressional District. From Mlive

ustin Amash, 29, a first-term Republican state representative from Kentwood, announced on his Facebook page minutes ago that he will seek the 3rd District Congressional seat held by Vern Ehlers.

He set up a Web site that touts his record of supporting limited government.

Ehlers, 76, said he would announce Wednesday whether he will seek a ninth term. The district includes Barry, Ionia and all but a sliver of Kent counties.

If Ehlers does run again, he has plenty of cash on hand ($489,645) and raised a healthy $133,786 in the past quarter. The district remains solidly Republican, although the Grand Rapids population base leans Democratic.

Amash's Web site says fellow state representatives Dave Agema, R-Grandville, Bob Genetski, R-Saugatuck, and Tom McMillin, R-Rochester Hills, all have endorsed his Congressional bid.

Thirdly, speculation is that Vern Ehlers is retiring. That would fit Amash's announcement. Expect a primary. From Hotline

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI 03) will announce his retirement at a 10 a.m. presser tomorrow morning, according to a MI-based source.
A press release from Ehler's office says the presser "follow[s] speculation about his plans to continue serving" in the House. Several GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall his wife had a heart attack last week, further lending credence to speculation he will step aside.
The 2/10 announcement will come a day after state Rep. Justin Amash (R) announced a primary challenge to Ehlers.
This Grand Rapids-based seat, under the right circumstances, is a potential pickup opportunity for Dems. In the '08 Dem wave, and with the GOP virtually conceding MI, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) eked out a 49%-49% win over Pres. Obama. But in much better times for the GOP in '04, George W. Bush won a comfortable 59-40% win over Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). The current enviro., both nationally and in MI, indicate that GOPers should be in a much safer place to hold this open seat. Ehlers, meanwhile, has never won with less than 61%.
Besides Amash, a GOP source names state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R) as a potential candidate. Hardiman, an African-American, represents a Grand Rapids-based seat in the Legislature, and was former mayor of Kentwood.

This seat should stay ours, but I am a little concerned about it. There's my recent update of the 3rd district.

Assuming this is now an open district, the keys are what kind of a primary we're going to have, and who the democrats are going to throw out for this. I think the good news for us and this district is that the 29th District state senate seat is opening up, since I expect the top democrat candidates to run for that instead because it's an easier district. I think Steve Pestka, Michael Sak, Roy Schmidt, George Heartwell, and Robert Dean could make things more difficult in keeping this seat if there is a divided primary. One on one, I'm not worried. A five on one Joe Schwarz special from 2004 worries me, especially if the democrat is pro-life. (if not, our odds of winning double)

There's a lot of people I can see running for this seat. Some I prefer to others. Justin Amash and Bill Hardiman are mentioned, but I'd watch for former Lt Governor Dick Posthumus, Jerry Zandstra, one of the Glenn Steils, Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, Brian Calley, Gary Newell, Kevin Green, or Tom Pearce to make a run, along with a possible countywide officer from Kent County. With Bouchard's early polling numbers, would Terri Lynn Land drop her Lt Governor bid for a Congressional run? (I'm probably going to hear about that comment later. Pure speculation, nothing more.) If the primary looks like it may be divisive, look for that "safe choice" to be recruited. I expect that to be either Land or Posthumus. If either of them run, I think they would be the favorites. If not, this will be wide open for the taking and I haven't followed all the ins and outs of Kent County politics to make a good guess.

This one will be quite interesting.