Thursday, June 30, 2011

Congressional District 7 - Redistricted (MI-07)


Incumbent - Tim Walberg (R-Tipton)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 4, non consecutive.
The old 7th District information is here

Challengers -  Kurt Richard Haskell (D-Newport)

Update 8-30-2012 - Haskell and Walberg won their primaries. The dem establishment got some heartburn from Haskell's win. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Tim Walberg caught a break. Three democrats would have been a very competitive race. I don't think Marquez will do so. Haskell is an interesting candidate, all over the place with his views. He was interviewed often as a witness in the underwear bomber case.

This district has changed quite a bit. It's still a swing district. It drops Calhoun County to Justin Amash, where Tim Walberg is strongly disliked. It also drops about 1/2 of Scio Township to Dingell, which is a major democrat stronghold in Washtenaw County. Walberg is only stuck with the "Dexter" part. That's the good news. It picks up York Township instead. The bad news for Walberg is that it adds the City of Milan and Augusta Township in Washtenaw County, as well as all of Monroe County, a swing area that leans slightly democrat, although not as much as it used to. It's about the same as Calhoun County from a partisan standpoint, although it's an unknown in its view of Walberg compared to Eaton (which he still has) and Calhoun Counties. Jackson County and Lenawee Counties are big key swing areas, as is Eaton County. The Washtenaw County portion is still competitive and slightly less democrat dropping the eastern portion of Scio Township. Hillsdale and Branch Counties are still key base areas.

The biggest change though is its homers. The bench for the democrats is smaller in this district compared to the old one. Mark Schauer won't have a rematch. RINO Joe Schwarz won't be stiring up as much trouble either, at least against the guy who made him taste humble pie in a big way.

The hypothetical is this. In a bad year like 08, would Walberg have survived? He had to not lose Augusta, York, Milan, and Monroe County by somewhere between 3700 and 4000 votes. (Scio's spread is likely less than 1480, that's just half of the whole thing). McCain didn't, but Walberg was actually much stronger than McCain. Who knows. In years like 2010, there's plenty to spare.

Obama has about a 12700 vote spread. Bush a 32000 vote spread. Walberg had about a 3800 vote spread in 08 and about a 13300 vote spread in 2010 in the portion of the new district he already represents.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 9534 8413 17947 1121 53.12% 46.88% 6.25%
Eaton County 25900 30742 56642 -4842 45.73% 54.27% -8.55%
Hillsdale County 11221 8765 19986 2456 56.14% 43.86% 12.29%
Jackson County 35692 37480 73172 -1788 48.78% 51.22% -2.44%
Lenawee County 22225 24640 46865 -2415 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Monroe County 35858 39180 75038 -3322 47.79% 52.21% -4.43%
Washtenaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Augusta Twp 1489 1979 3468 -490 42.94% 57.06% -14.13%
Bridgewater Twp 526 481 1007 45 52.23% 47.77% 4.47%
Chelsea City 1214 1748 2962 -534 40.99% 59.01% -18.03%
Dexter Twp  1730 2064 3794 -334 45.60% 54.40% -8.80%
Freedom Twp 481 428 909 53 52.92% 47.08% 5.83%
Lima Twp 973 973 1946 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Lodi Twp 1894 1803 3697 91 51.23% 48.77% 2.46%
Lyndon Twp 735 843 1578 -108 46.58% 53.42% -6.84%
Manchester Twp 1241 1424 2665 -183 46.57% 53.43% -6.87%
Milan City 802 1151 1953 -349 41.07% 58.93% -17.87%
Northfield Twp 2109 2310 4419 -201 47.73% 52.27% -4.55%
Salem Twp 2067 1510 3577 557 57.79% 42.21% 15.57%
Saline City 2221 2906 5127 -685 43.32% 56.68% -13.36%
Saline Twp 539 507 1046 32 51.53% 48.47% 3.06%
Scio Twp (partial) 1886 3854 5740 -1968 32.86% 67.14% -34.29%
Sharon Twp 556 503 1059 53 52.50% 47.50% 5.00%
Sylvan Twp 919 996 1915 -77 47.99% 52.01% -4.02%
Webster Twp 1911 2186 4097 -275 46.64% 53.36% -6.71%
York Twp 2313 1934 4247 379 54.46% 45.54% 8.92%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 166036 178820 344856 -12784 48.15% 51.85% -3.71%








2004







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 10784 7004 17788 3780 60.63% 39.37% 21.25%
Eaton County 29781 25411 55192 4370 53.96% 46.04% 7.92%
Hillsdale County 12804 7123 19927 5681 64.25% 35.75% 28.51%
Jackson County 40029 31025 71054 9004 56.34% 43.66% 12.67%
Lenawee County 25675 20787 46462 4888 55.26% 44.74% 10.52%
Monroe County 37470 36089 73559 1381 50.94% 49.06% 1.88%
Washtenaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Augusta Twp 1411 1599 3010 -188 46.88% 53.12% -6.25%
Bridgewater Twp 550 352 902 198 60.98% 39.02% 21.95%
Chelsea City 1300 1490 2790 -190 46.59% 53.41% -6.81%
Dexter Twp (not city) 1909 1672 3581 237 53.31% 46.69% 6.62%
Freedom Twp 481 405 886 76 54.29% 45.71% 8.58%
Lima Twp 926 709 1635 217 56.64% 43.36% 13.27%
Lodi Twp 2104 1590 3694 514 56.96% 43.04% 13.91%
Lyndon Twp 812 718 1530 94 53.07% 46.93% 6.14%
Manchester Twp 1299 1168 2467 131 52.66% 47.34% 5.31%
Milan City 822 822 1644 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Northfield Twp 2325 2027 4352 298 53.42% 46.58% 6.85%
Salem Twp 2130 1330 3460 800 61.56% 38.44% 23.12%
Saline City 2658 2418 5076 240 52.36% 47.64% 4.73%
Saline Twp 612 464 1076 148 56.88% 43.12% 13.75%
Scio Twp (partial) 2122 3181 5303 -1059 40.02% 59.98% -19.97%
Sharon Twp 630 440 1070 190 58.88% 41.12% 17.76%
Sylvan Twp 983 819 1802 164 54.55% 45.45% 9.10%
Webster Twp 2097 1707 3804 390 55.13% 44.87% 10.25%
York Twp 2367 1623 3990 744 59.32% 40.68% 18.65%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 184081 151973 336054 32108 54.78% 45.22% 9.55%








2008







Walberg Schauer Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 9866 6878 16744 2988 58.92% 41.08% 17.85%
Eaton County 24878 27655 52533 -2777 47.36% 52.64% -5.29%
Hillsdale County 12015 6981 18996 5034 63.25% 36.75% 26.50%
Jackson County 34231 34978 69209 -747 49.46% 50.54% -1.08%
Lenawee County 22953 22019 44972 934 51.04% 48.96% 2.08%
Monroe County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Washtenaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Augusta Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp 523 428 951 95 54.99% 45.01% 9.99%
Chelsea City 1156 1567 2723 -411 42.45% 57.55% -15.09%
Dexter Twp (not city) 1623 1925 3548 -302 45.74% 54.26% -8.51%
Freedom Twp 461 397 858 64 53.73% 46.27% 7.46%
Lima Twp 921 854 1775 67 51.89% 48.11% 3.77%
Lodi Twp 1905 1551 3456 354 55.12% 44.88% 10.24%
Lyndon Twp 687 769 1456 -82 47.18% 52.82% -5.63%
Manchester Twp 1197 1273 2470 -76 48.46% 51.54% -3.08%
Milan City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Northfield Twp 1845 2119 3964 -274 46.54% 53.46% -6.91%
Salem Twp 1858 1349 3207 509 57.94% 42.06% 15.87%
Saline City 2235 2484 4719 -249 47.36% 52.64% -5.28%
Saline Twp 556 416 972 140 57.20% 42.80% 14.40%
Scio Twp (partial) 1825 3305 5130 -1480 35.58% 64.42% -28.85%
Sharon Twp 542 447 989 95 54.80% 45.20% 9.61%
Sylvan Twp 896 877 1773 19 50.54% 49.46% 1.07%
Webster Twp 1849 1971 3820 -122 48.40% 51.60% -3.19%
York Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 124022 120243 244265 3779 50.77% 49.23% 1.55%








2010







Walberg Schauer Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 7243 4738 11981 2505 60.45% 39.55% 20.91%
Eaton County 18858 20142 39000 -1284 48.35% 51.65% -3.29%
Hillsdale County 8682 4594 13276 4088 65.40% 34.60% 30.79%
Jackson County 25512 21776 47288 3736 53.95% 46.05% 7.90%
Lenawee County 16510 14037 30547 2473 54.05% 45.95% 8.10%
Monroe County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Washtenaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Augusta Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp 416 279 695 137 59.86% 40.14% 19.71%
Chelsea City 935 1161 2096 -226 44.61% 55.39% -10.78%
Dexter Twp (not city) 1414 1311 2725 103 51.89% 48.11% 3.78%
Freedom Twp 392 277 669 115 58.59% 41.41% 17.19%
Lima Twp 803 631 1434 172 56.00% 44.00% 11.99%
Lodi Twp 1608 1141 2749 467 58.49% 41.51% 16.99%
Lyndon Twp 561 547 1108 14 50.63% 49.37% 1.26%
Manchester Twp 946 900 1846 46 51.25% 48.75% 2.49%
Milan City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Northfield Twp 1622 1226 2848 396 56.95% 43.05% 13.90%
Salem Twp 1620 886 2506 734 64.64% 35.36% 29.29%
Saline City 1746 1695 3441 51 50.74% 49.26% 1.48%
Saline Twp 408 273 681 135 59.91% 40.09% 19.82%
Scio Twp (partial) 1516 2381 3897 -865 38.90% 61.10% -22.20%
Sharon Twp 480 337 817 143 58.75% 41.25% 17.50%
Sylvan Twp 745 638 1383 107 53.87% 46.13% 7.74%
Webster Twp 1636 1417 3053 219 53.59% 46.41% 7.17%
York Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 93653 80387 174040 13266 53.81% 46.19% 7.62%

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