Saturday, January 16, 2010

Congressional District 7 (MI-07) Updated

Update 5-18-2010 Listed Candidates
Update 8-4-2010 Primary results

Michigan's 7th District - Congress

Incumbent - Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 2.
Cook District Numbers - R+2

GOP Candidates - Tim Walberg
Dem Candidate - Mark Schauer

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 52%
McCain - 47%

2004:
Bush - 54%
Kerry – 45%

2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 46%



I am more familiar with this district than any other outside of the 8th, where I live. I commuted through it every day in law school. I live about a mile from the district (no jokes about seeing the district). I have family in the district (and my family originally settled in Marshall when they moved to Michigan). One of the PAC's I'm involved with is based in Hillsdale and Jackson Counties. I also am very familiar with the Lansing area, as well as Eaton County. Branch County is the only area  I'm not very familiar with. Overall if I have to describe its leanings, I'd say conservative, populist, and independent. It's not one that can be taken for granted.

This district is a competitive populist leaning district in South Central Michigan. It usually leans Republican, but voted for Clinton, Bush twice, Granholm once, and Obama. McCain left the state in 09, and the NRCC reportedly packed up shop and conceded the congressional race. Mark Schauer, endorsed by RINO (and I have rarely use that term for the last 4 years) Joe Schwarz, won 49-46.

The Republican district base here is Hillsdale (which usually battles Livingston, Saniliac and Allegan for 3rd place in percentages) and Branch Counties, along with Summit Twp (usually), Sandstone Twp and Spring Arbor in Jackson County, and Lodi and Salem Twps in Washtenaw County. The Democrat base is the city of Jackson, Albion, Battle Creek, Springfield, Benton Twp, Adrian, Scio Township in Washtenaw County, Chelsea, and Eaton County's portion of Lansing. The rest can be competitive and usually leans slightly Republican, but not overwhelming so. Eaton County and Washtenaw County have really tilted blue heavily in 2006 and 2008, and the rest did not move as democrat. Calhoun County is slightly democrat, but winnable for Republicans. Eaton County swings and has been treading Democrat with its Lansing area influence. Western Washtenaw Swings. Jackson County swings, although won more by Republicans than Democrats at the top of the ticket. Lenawee County is a swing county, although with a bit of a social conservative streak. Both Jackson County and Lenawee County voted for Bush twice and Obama. Lenawee voted for Clinton. Jackson did not.

Mark Schauer is good at making his leftist self looking moderate. He's the type of guy who as a state rep supported all bad amendments to the CCW bill, including making cars a criminal empowerment zone. He then voted for the final bill to say that he did. He is also strongly pro-abortion, supporting of cap and trade, and voted for the government takeover. If his chameleon style gets caught for good, he should be beaten in this district. He is a very good campaigner however, and can not be taken lightly.

The Republicans are running three candidates. Tim Walberg is making a comeback. He has a very strong core base of supporters, including in important Lenawee County.  Brian Rooney moved to the 7th from Canton to run against Walberg and Schauer. I think that will be a major problem for him. The 7th is a different type of district. Outside of maybe Saline or Scio Twp, and parts of Eaton County, most people from the 7th have lived there a long time if not for generations. This is old free soil country and railroad country. There are not the same number of transients or transplants here as in say the 8th district. Marvin Carlson is also running. I expect Walberg to be the favorite to be the nominee, and I think he's a got a real good chance, if he runs a smart campaign, to take this seat back.

Nick Smith had this district for years, and mostly without trouble although I believe 1992 was tough for him. The dems tried to take him out in 96, and lost badly. He had a free pass. Joe Schwarz was a one-termer from 04 to 06. He won the primary with about 25% of the vote. The dems really didn't contest the race, and Schwarz won easily, but there was significant 3rd party defections, and an opening for a democrat who was pro-gun, and pro-life (Spade?). In 2006 Schwarz lost the primary to Tim Walberg. Walberg did not have a lot of money and won in the tough 2006 year (Rural areas went big for the dems that year) with about 50%. The nationals conceded this in 08 and Schauer won narrowly. Again, there was 3rd party defections, enough to shift the race.

Bush did quite here and overperformed, particularly in Jackson County in 2004. In fact, I think Bush saved a couple of seats for the GOP in 04 against strong democrats. I'll be posting the 00, 04, and 08 presidential numbers here, as I expect this to be the biggest contest in 2010 that is not the gubernatorial race. 2000 was probably more accurate of representation for the general trends in this district than 2004 or 2008. The numbers won't be completely accurate, since parts of four precincts in Scio Twp are in Dingell's 15th district. 403 votes of Scio or so are in the Dingell district. My numbers will be slightly more democrat than the real numbers because of that. If the race comes down to 400 votes in Scio Twp, you're in big trouble. It's "Ann Arbor West." It's where I-94 and M-14 meet. .

Here's the 2008 results.


2008 Election
Walberg
Schauer
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Branch County
9,866
6,878
1008
     17,752
2988
55.58%
38.74%
16.83%
Calhoun County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Albion
664
2,512
93
       3,269
-1848
20.31%
76.84%
-56.53%
Albion Twp
275
281
24
         580
-6
47.41%
48.45%
-1.03%
Athens Twp
301
258
21
         580
43
51.90%
44.48%
7.41%
City of Battle Creek
7,820
14,161
828
     22,809
-6341
34.28%
62.09%
-27.80%
Bedford Twp
1,886
2,630
198
       4,714
-744
40.01%
55.79%
-15.78%
Burlington Twp
445
383
61
         889
62
50.06%
43.08%
6.97%
Clarence Twp
532
430
57
       1,019
102
52.21%
42.20%
10.01%
Clarendon Twp
298
214
31
         543
84
54.88%
39.41%
15.47%
Convis Twp
394
353
49
         796
41
49.50%
44.35%
5.15%
Eckford Twp
421
275
27
         723
146
58.23%
38.04%
20.19%
Emmett Twp
2,490
2,894
263
       5,647
-404
44.09%
51.25%
-7.15%
Fredonia Twp
410
403
53
         866
7
47.34%
46.54%
0.81%
Homer Twp
485
530
54
       1,069
-45
45.37%
49.58%
-4.21%
Lee Twp
287
204
32
         523
83
54.88%
39.01%
15.87%
Marengo Twp
525
451
54
       1,030
74
50.97%
43.79%
7.18%
City of Marshall
1,552
1,931
156
       3,639
-379
42.65%
53.06%
-10.41%
Marshall Twp
945
847
76
       1,868
98
50.59%
45.34%
5.25%
Newton Twp
786
683
54
       1,523
103
51.61%
44.85%
6.76%
Pennfield Twp
2,065
2,352
217
       4,634
-287
44.56%
50.76%
-6.19%
Sheridan Twp
385
380
49
         814
5
47.30%
46.68%
0.61%
City of Springfield
600
1,132
79
       1,811
-532
33.13%
62.51%
-29.38%
Tekonsha Twp
363
360
44
         767
3
47.33%
46.94%
0.39%
Eaton County



            -  
0
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#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bellevue Twp
822
636
97
       1,555
186
52.86%
40.90%
11.96%
Benton Twp
783
687
116
       1,586
96
49.37%
43.32%
6.05%
Brookfield Twp
407
301
56
         764
106
53.27%
39.40%
13.87%
Carmel Twp
799
639
71
       1,509
160
52.95%
42.35%
10.60%
City of Charlotte
1,685
1,997
246
       3,928
-312
42.90%
50.84%
-7.94%
Chester Twp
536
382
77
         995
154
53.87%
38.39%
15.48%
Delta Twp
7,364
9,639
884
     17,887
-2275
41.17%
53.89%
-12.72%
City of Eaton Rapids
980
1,137
133
       2,250
-157
43.56%
50.53%
-6.98%
Eaton Rapids Twp
1,060
874
170
       2,104
186
50.38%
41.54%
8.84%
Eaton Twp
1,181
945
155
       2,281
236
51.78%
41.43%
10.35%
City of Grand Ledge
1,709
2,109
245
       4,063
-400
42.06%
51.91%
-9.84%
Hamlin Twp
814
808
106
       1,728
6
47.11%
46.76%
0.35%
Kalamo Twp
416
387
61
         864
29
48.15%
44.79%
3.36%
City of Lansing
300
1,565
82
       1,947
-1265
15.41%
80.38%
-64.97%
City of Olivet
222
271
32
         525
-49
42.29%
51.62%
-9.33%
Oneida Twp
1,204
1,074
109
       2,387
130
50.44%
44.99%
5.45%
City of Potterville
504
474
68
       1,046
30
48.18%
45.32%
2.87%
Roxand Twp
513
401
62
         976
112
52.56%
41.09%
11.48%
Sunfield Twp
568
432
73
       1,073
136
52.94%
40.26%
12.67%
Vermontville Twp
481
430
58
         969
51
49.64%
44.38%
5.26%
Walton Twp
585
464
71
       1,120
121
52.23%
41.43%
10.80%
Windsor Twp
1,945
2,003
246
       4,194
-58
46.38%
47.76%
-1.38%
Hillsdale County
12,015
6,981
993
     19,989
5034
60.11%
34.92%
25.18%
Jackson County:



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0
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#DIV/0!
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Blackman Twp
3,460
3,912
391
       7,763
-452
44.57%
50.39%
-5.82%
Columbia Twp
2,171
1,865
188
       4,224
306
51.40%
44.15%
7.24%
Concord Twp
715
590
71
       1,376
125
51.96%
42.88%
9.08%
Grass Lake Twp
1,646
1,247
160
       3,053
399
53.91%
40.85%
13.07%
Hanover Twp
1,034
777
88
       1,899
257
54.45%
40.92%
13.53%
Henrietta Twp
1,092
1,082
134
       2,308
10
47.31%
46.88%
0.43%
City of Jackson
4,150
8,260
546
     12,956
-4110
32.03%
63.75%
-31.72%
Leoni Twp
2,743
3,201
391
       6,335
-458
43.30%
50.53%
-7.23%
Liberty Twp
960
689
67
       1,716
271
55.94%
40.15%
15.79%
Napoleon Twp
1,630
1,606
178
       3,414
24
47.74%
47.04%
0.70%
Norvell Twp
858
744
85
       1,687
114
50.86%
44.10%
6.76%
Parma Twp
616
566
66
       1,248
50
49.36%
45.35%
4.01%
Pulaski Twp
577
359
42
         978
218
59.00%
36.71%
22.29%
Rives Twp
1,232
953
116
       2,301
279
53.54%
41.42%
12.13%
Sandstone Twp
1,129
726
112
       1,967
403
57.40%
36.91%
20.49%
Spring Arbor Twp
2,369
1,332
135
       3,836
1037
61.76%
34.72%
27.03%
Springport Twp
518
395
48
         961
123
53.90%
41.10%
12.80%
Summit Twp
6,009
5,402
416
     11,827
607
50.81%
45.68%
5.13%
Tompkins Twp
647
583
89
       1,319
64
49.05%
44.20%
4.85%
Waterloo Twp
642
689
84
       1,415
-47
45.37%
48.69%
-3.32%
Lenawee County
22,953
22,019
1724
     46,696
934
49.15%
47.15%
2.00%
Washtenaw County:



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0
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#DIV/0!
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Bridgewater Twp
523
428
40
         991
95
52.77%
43.19%
9.59%
City of Chelsea
1,156
1,567
154
       2,877
-411
40.18%
54.47%
-14.29%
Dexter Twp
1,623
1,925
146
       3,694
-302
43.94%
52.11%
-8.18%
Freedom Twp
461
397
43
         901
64
51.17%
44.06%
7.10%
Lima Twp
921
854
109
       1,884
67
48.89%
45.33%
3.56%
Lodi Twp
1,905
1,551
141
       3,597
354
52.96%
43.12%
9.84%
Lyndon Twp
687
769
74
       1,530
-82
44.90%
50.26%
-5.36%
Manchester Twp
1,197
1,273
139
       2,609
-76
45.88%
48.79%
-2.91%
Northfield Twp
1,845
2,119
291
       4,255
-274
43.36%
49.80%
-6.44%
Salem Twp
1,858
1,349
207
       3,414
509
54.42%
39.51%
14.91%
City of Saline
2,235
2,484
237
       4,956
-249
45.10%
50.12%
-5.02%
Saline Twp
556
416
47
       1,019
140
54.56%
40.82%
13.74%
Scio Twp
3,655
6,611
457
     10,723
-2956
34.09%
61.65%
-27.57%
Sharon Twp
542
447
49
       1,038
95
52.22%
43.06%
9.15%
Sylvan Twp
896
877
100
       1,873
19
47.84%
46.82%
1.01%
Webster Twp
1,849
1,971
168
       3,988
-122
46.36%
49.42%
-3.06%









Total
149,748
157,213
15,272
322,233
-7465
46.47%
48.79%
-2.32%


Nobody reached 49%. Breaking it down. This does remove the 400 votes from Scio Twp, that's only affecting the presidential numbers making them slightly more democrat than it is. I'm going to start with the Obama numbers first, and work backward to 2000 instead of the other way around since I want to compare Walberg v McCain.


2008 Election
McCain
Obama
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Branch County
9,534
8,413
338
     18,285
1121
52.14%
46.01%
6.13%
Calhoun County:



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0
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#DIV/0!
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City of Albion
719
2,584
36
       3,339
-1865
21.53%
77.39%
-55.86%
Albion Twp
301
283
6
         590
18
51.02%
47.97%
3.05%
Athens Twp
660
564
33
       1,257
96
52.51%
44.87%
7.64%
City of Battle Creek
8,916
13,975
320
     23,211
-5059
38.41%
60.21%
-21.80%
Bedford Twp
2,128
2,583
85
       4,796
-455
44.37%
53.86%
-9.49%
Burlington Twp
488
398
21
         907
90
53.80%
43.88%
9.92%
Clarence Twp
574
439
18
       1,031
135
55.67%
42.58%
13.09%
Clarendon Twp
315
231
14
         560
84
56.25%
41.25%
15.00%
Convis Twp
439
357
21
         817
82
53.73%
43.70%
10.04%
Eckford Twp
452
263
15
         730
189
61.92%
36.03%
25.89%
Emmett Twp
2,848
2,840
91
       5,779
8
49.28%
49.14%
0.14%
Fredonia Twp
471
392
17
         880
79
53.52%
44.55%
8.98%
Homer Twp
516
561
28
       1,105
-45
46.70%
50.77%
-4.07%
Lee Twp
300
220
15
         535
80
56.07%
41.12%
14.95%
Marengo Twp
581
463
22
       1,066
118
54.50%
43.43%
11.07%
City of Marshall
1,733
1,931
62
       3,726
-198
46.51%
51.83%
-5.31%
Marshall Twp
1,074
807
34
       1,915
267
56.08%
42.14%
13.94%
Newton Twp
886
647
29
       1,562
239
56.72%
41.42%
15.30%
Pennfield Twp
2,405
2,218
82
       4,705
187
51.12%
47.14%
3.97%
Sheridan Twp
412
390
27
         829
22
49.70%
47.04%
2.65%
City of Springfield
689
1,132
29
       1,850
-443
37.24%
61.19%
-23.95%
Tekonsha Twp
357
398
22
         777
-41
45.95%
51.22%
-5.28%
Eaton County



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Bellevue Twp
891
679
31
       1,601
212
55.65%
42.41%
13.24%
Benton Twp
817
766
38
       1,621
51
50.40%
47.25%
3.15%
Brookfield Twp
414
356
21
         791
58
52.34%
45.01%
7.33%
Carmel Twp
838
690
28
       1,556
148
53.86%
44.34%
9.51%
City of Charlotte
1,756
2,234
74
       4,064
-478
43.21%
54.97%
-11.76%
Chester Twp
569
428
22
       1,019
141
55.84%
42.00%
13.84%
Delta Twp
7,632
10,602
260
     18,494
-2970
41.27%
57.33%
-16.06%
City of Eaton Rapids
1,024
1,257
44
       2,325
-233
44.04%
54.06%
-10.02%
Eaton Rapids Twp
1,092
1,035
43
       2,170
57
50.32%
47.70%
2.63%
Eaton Twp
1,228
1,090
29
       2,347
138
52.32%
46.44%
5.88%
City of Grand Ledge
1,784
2,352
72
       4,208
-568
42.40%
55.89%
-13.50%
Hamlin Twp
835
909
44
       1,788
-74
46.70%
50.84%
-4.14%
Kalamo Twp
453
419
21
         893
34
50.73%
46.92%
3.81%
City of Lansing
251
1,740
19
       2,010
-1489
12.49%
86.57%
-74.08%
City of Olivet
230
301
10
         541
-71
42.51%
55.64%
-13.12%
Oneida Twp
1,237
1,193
33
       2,463
44
50.22%
48.44%
1.79%
City of Potterville
497
569
31
       1,097
-72
45.31%
51.87%
-6.56%
Roxand Twp
531
470
16
       1,017
61
52.21%
46.21%
6.00%
Sunfield Twp
612
464
32
       1,108
148
55.23%
41.88%
13.36%
Vermontville Twp
506
488
16
       1,010
18
50.10%
48.32%
1.78%
Walton Twp
607
518
19
       1,144
89
53.06%
45.28%
7.78%
Windsor Twp
2,096
2,182
74
       4,352
-86
48.16%
50.14%
-1.98%
Hillsdale County
11,221
8,765
463
     20,449
2456
54.87%
42.86%
12.01%
Jackson County:



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#DIV/0!
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Blackman Twp
3,646
4,204
136
       7,986
-558
45.65%
52.64%
-6.99%
Columbia Twp
2,265
2,011
72
       4,348
254
52.09%
46.25%
5.84%
Concord Twp
758
633
20
       1,411
125
53.72%
44.86%
8.86%
Grass Lake Twp
1,659
1,430
53
       3,142
229
52.80%
45.51%
7.29%
Hanover Twp
1,096
843
27
       1,966
253
55.75%
42.88%
12.87%
Henrietta Twp
1,161
1,153
45
       2,359
8
49.22%
48.88%
0.34%
City of Jackson
4,162
8,856
218
     13,236
-4694
31.44%
66.91%
-35.46%
Leoni Twp
2,930
3,387
172
       6,489
-457
45.15%
52.20%
-7.04%
Liberty Twp
1,015
713
31
       1,759
302
57.70%
40.53%
17.17%
Napoleon Twp
1,733
1,712
69
       3,514
21
49.32%
48.72%
0.60%
Norvell Twp
887
815
39
       1,741
72
50.95%
46.81%
4.14%
Parma Twp
629
618
27
       1,274
11
49.37%
48.51%
0.86%
Pulaski Twp
579
405
20
       1,004
174
57.67%
40.34%
17.33%
Rives Twp
1,317
1,005
48
       2,370
312
55.57%
42.41%
13.16%
Sandstone Twp
1,203
782
49
       2,034
421
59.14%
38.45%
20.70%
Spring Arbor Twp
2,460
1,418
49
       3,927
1042
62.64%
36.11%
26.53%
Springport Twp
551
425
28
       1,004
126
54.88%
42.33%
12.55%
Summit Twp
6,281
5,652
176
     12,109
629
51.87%
46.68%
5.19%
Tompkins Twp
710
631
39
       1,380
79
51.45%
45.72%
5.72%
Waterloo Twp
650
787
23
       1,460
-137
44.52%
53.90%
-9.38%
Lenawee County
22,225
24,640
869
     47,734
-2415
46.56%
51.62%
-5.06%
Washtenaw County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp
526
481
22
       1,029
45
51.12%
46.74%
4.37%
City of Chelsea
1,214
1,748
40
       3,002
-534
40.44%
58.23%
-17.79%
Dexter Twp
1,730
2,064
42
       3,836
-334
45.10%
53.81%
-8.71%
Freedom Twp
481
428
11
         920
53
52.28%
46.52%
5.76%
Lima Twp
973
973
35
       1,981
0
49.12%
49.12%
0.00%
Lodi Twp
1,894
1,803
43
       3,740
91
50.64%
48.21%
2.43%
Lyndon Twp
735
843
29
       1,607
-108
45.74%
52.46%
-6.72%
Manchester Twp
1,241
1,424
42
       2,707
-183
45.84%
52.60%
-6.76%
Northfield Twp
2,109
2,310
93
       4,512
-201
46.74%
51.20%
-4.45%
Salem Twp
2,067
1,510
53
       3,630
557
56.94%
41.60%
15.34%
City of Saline
2,221
2,906
86
       5,213
-685
42.61%
55.75%
-13.14%
Saline Twp
539
507
16
       1,062
32
50.75%
47.74%
3.01%
Scio Twp
3,772
7,709
128
     11,609
-3937
32.49%
66.41%
-33.91%
Sharon Twp
556
503
25
       1,084
53
51.29%
46.40%
4.89%
Sylvan Twp
919
996
27
       1,942
-77
47.32%
51.29%
-3.96%
Webster Twp
1,911
2,186
58
       4,155
-275
45.99%
52.61%
-6.62%









Total
154,724
172,107
5,765
332,596
-17383
46.52%
51.75%
-5.23%


Breaking things down further. You do get a dropoff in voting as lots of people vote for "blank" in downticket races. Percentages are bigger.

Branch County
Walberg - 55.58%, Schauer 38.74% - 17,752 votes, 2988 vote spread
McCain - 52.14%, Obama 46.01% - 18,285 votes , 1121 vote spread

Branch is important despite its small size. Republicans need big percentages there. 7400 votes made the difference in 2008 for Schauer.

Calhoun County (Schauer's home)
Schauer - 56.00%, Walberg 39.81% - 60113 votes, -9735 spread
Obama - 54.35%, McCain 44.00% - 61697 votes, -6412 spread.

Mark Schauer is from Calhoun County and historically has ran well ahead of the ticket. This in fact made the difference in the race. 4% 3rd party defections, combined with Schauer's 2% increase here, along with Lenawee County's closer than expected results. Obama made the difference there I'm sure. Two words. Adrian College.

Eaton County
Schauer - 49.60%, Walberg - 44.62% - 55751 votes, -2777 spread
Obama - 53.35%, McCain  - 44.95% - 57,619 votes, -4842 spread

Eaton County has been treading blue, and much of that has to do with Lansing and it's suburbs. Delta Township, Windsor Twp, Grand Ledge, and the largely commuter city of Charlotte. A lot of the people there are government workers. Bush actually improved in 2004 over 2000 there, but 06 and 08 was rough waters for any republican in Eaton County not named Rick Jones. It will vote for some very socially conservative people (Jones, Tabor), but then vote for Granholm twice. The economic issues ran the show there.
.
Hillsdale County:
Walberg - 60.11%, Schauer - 34.92% - 19989 votes, 5034 vote spread
McCain - 54.87%, Obama - 42.86% - 20449 votes, 2456 vote spread

Hillsdale is much more conservative than it is Republican. Walberg always overperforms in Hillsdale, and this was no exception. It's a small county, but critical for GOP success, as its vote spread is often larger than counties over twice its size.

Jackson County:
Obama - 50.30%, McCain - 47.90% - 74513 votes, -1788 vote spread
Schauer - 48.19%, Walberg - 47.12% - 72583 votes, -780 vote spread

Usually as Jackson County goes, so does the district. It was critical to Walberg's 2006 win, both in the primary and general. It turned on him in 08, and much of that was due to the City of Jackson itself. This was also part of Schauer's state senate district.

Lenawee County
Walberg -  49.15%, Schauer - 47.15% - 46696 votes, 934 vote spread
Obama -  51.62%, McCain - 46.56% - 47734 votes, -2415 vote spread

Walberg's secret to success, both in 06 and in the past during his wins in Lenawee County the same time as Bill Clinton, was due to getting his core populist conservatives out to vote. Schauer was able to counter that here with Adrian College. Adrian leans democrat, but was much more democrat in 2008 than normal, and it was largely straight ticket. Lenawee saved him in 2006, and in I believe 1996. This time, it wasn't enough.

Washtenaw County
Schauer - 50.74%, Walberg - 44.40% - 49349 votes, -3129 vote spread
Obama - 54.57%, McCain - 43.99% - 52029 votes, -5503 vote spread

This is the most democrat part of the district outside of Calhoun County. Scio Township leads the way and is not friendly to most Republicans. Dexter, Saline, and Chelsea are treading more and more blue as well. If the Republicans stop the bleeding here in 2010, our chances at picking up this seat greatly increase.

2004 was very good to republicans in most of this district. Bush lead the way here, and carried a couple of state rep candidates with him. He actually won Calhoun County, as well as the Eaton and Washtenaw portions of the district.


2004 Election
Bush
Kerry
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Branch County
10,784
7,004
179
     17,967
3780
60.02%
38.98%
21.04%
Calhoun County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Albion
896
2,174
41
       3,111
-1278
28.80%
69.88%
-41.08%
Albion Twp
336
265
8
         609
71
55.17%
43.51%
11.66%
Athens Twp
784
499
9
       1,292
285
60.68%
38.62%
22.06%
City of Battle Creek
10,314
11,583
238
     22,135
-1269
46.60%
52.33%
-5.73%
Bedford Twp
2,262
2,264
53
       4,579
-2
49.40%
49.44%
-0.04%
Burlington Twp
494
389
14
         897
105
55.07%
43.37%
11.71%
Clarence Twp
640
376
12
       1,028
264
62.26%
36.58%
25.68%
Clarendon Twp
335
221
5
         561
114
59.71%
39.39%
20.32%
Convis Twp
500
355
19
         874
145
57.21%
40.62%
16.59%
Eckford Twp
460
255
6
         721
205
63.80%
35.37%
28.43%
Emmett Twp
3,171
2,508
56
       5,735
663
55.29%
43.73%
11.56%
Fredonia Twp
532
372
16
         920
160
57.83%
40.43%
17.39%
Homer Twp
653
474
11
       1,138
179
57.38%
41.65%
15.73%
Lee Twp
339
214
5
         558
125
60.75%
38.35%
22.40%
Marengo Twp
642
380
12
       1,034
262
62.09%
36.75%
25.34%
City of Marshall
2,012
1,713
36
       3,761
299
53.50%
45.55%
7.95%
Marshall Twp
1,098
723
17
       1,838
375
59.74%
39.34%
20.40%
Newton Twp
889
621
14
       1,524
268
58.33%
40.75%
17.59%
Pennfield Twp
2,680
1,969
64
       4,713
711
56.86%
41.78%
15.09%
Sheridan Twp
428
394
14
         836
34
51.20%
47.13%
4.07%
City of Springfield
877
1,005
20
       1,902
-128
46.11%
52.84%
-6.73%
Tekonsha Twp
454
364
12
         830
90
54.70%
43.86%
10.84%
Eaton County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bellevue Twp
864
571
15
       1,450
293
59.59%
39.38%
20.21%
Benton Twp
921
602
11
       1,534
319
60.04%
39.24%
20.80%
Brookfield Twp
427
268
17
         712
159
59.97%
37.64%
22.33%
Carmel Twp
955
587
29
       1,571
368
60.79%
37.36%
23.42%
City of Charlotte
2,089
1,784
51
       3,924
305
53.24%
45.46%
7.77%
Chester Twp
615
367
8
         990
248
62.12%
37.07%
25.05%
Delta Twp
9,005
8,891
158
     18,054
114
49.88%
49.25%
0.63%
City of Eaton Rapids
1,213
1,053
28
       2,294
160
52.88%
45.90%
6.97%
Eaton Rapids Twp
1,246
868
12
       2,126
378
58.61%
40.83%
17.78%
Eaton Twp
1,455
858
11
       2,324
597
62.61%
36.92%
25.69%
City of Grand Ledge
2,153
1,931
51
       4,135
222
52.07%
46.70%
5.37%
Hamlin Twp
925
694
20
       1,639
231
56.44%
42.34%
14.09%
Kalamo Twp
496
339
19
         854
157
58.08%
39.70%
18.38%
City of Lansing
411
1,547
17
       1,975
-1136
20.81%
78.33%
-57.52%
City of Olivet
260
186
15
         461
74
56.40%
40.35%
16.05%
Oneida Twp
1,330
977
19
       2,326
353
57.18%
42.00%
15.18%
City of Potterville
584
447
9
       1,040
137
56.15%
42.98%
13.17%
Roxand Twp
562
386
11
         959
176
58.60%
40.25%
18.35%
Sunfield Twp
717
407
10
       1,134
310
63.23%
35.89%
27.34%
Vermontville Twp
584
378
6
         968
206
60.33%
39.05%
21.28%
Walton Twp
640
363
16
       1,019
277
62.81%
35.62%
27.18%
Windsor Twp
2,329
1,907
41
       4,277
422
54.45%
44.59%
9.87%
Hillsdale County
12,804
7,123
289
     20,216
5681
63.34%
35.23%
28.10%
Jackson County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp
4,258
3,454
70
       7,782
804
54.72%
44.38%
10.33%
Columbia Twp
2,532
1,693
36
       4,261
839
59.42%
39.73%
19.69%
Concord Twp
843
483
18
       1,344
360
62.72%
35.94%
26.79%
Grass Lake Twp
1,684
1,132
41
       2,857
552
58.94%
39.62%
19.32%
Hanover Twp
1,199
745
13
       1,957
454
61.27%
38.07%
23.20%
Henrietta Twp
1,196
952
24
       2,172
244
55.06%
43.83%
11.23%
City of Jackson
5,257
7,142
138
     12,537
-1885
41.93%
56.97%
-15.04%
Leoni Twp
3,216
2,971
85
       6,272
245
51.28%
47.37%
3.91%
Liberty Twp
1,106
610
11
       1,727
496
64.04%
35.32%
28.72%
Napoleon Twp
1,893
1,494
35
       3,422
399
55.32%
43.66%
11.66%
Norvell Twp
962
774
17
       1,753
188
54.88%
44.15%
10.72%
Parma Twp
714
523
11
       1,248
191
57.21%
41.91%
15.30%
Pulaski Twp
635
363
14
       1,012
272
62.75%
35.87%
26.88%
Rives Twp
1,464
809
28
       2,301
655
63.62%
35.16%
28.47%
Sandstone Twp
1,293
626
20
       1,939
667
66.68%
32.28%
34.40%
Spring Arbor Twp
2,763
1,105
36
       3,904
1658
70.77%
28.30%
42.47%
Springport Twp
577
332
15
         924
245
62.45%
35.93%
26.52%
Summit Twp
6,894
4,579
102
     11,575
2315
59.56%
39.56%
20.00%
Tompkins Twp
772
537
8
       1,317
235
58.62%
40.77%
17.84%
Waterloo Twp
771
701
13
       1,485
70
51.92%
47.21%
4.71%
Lenawee County
25,675
20,787
550
     47,012
4888
54.61%
44.22%
10.40%
Washtenaw County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp
550
352
7
         909
198
60.51%
38.72%
21.78%
City of Chelsea
1,300
1,490
34
       2,824
-190
46.03%
52.76%
-6.73%
Dexter Twp
1,909
1,672
43
       3,624
237
52.68%
46.14%
6.54%
Freedom Twp
481
405
13
         899
76
53.50%
45.05%
8.45%
Lima Twp
926
709
14
       1,649
217
56.16%
43.00%
13.16%
Lodi Twp
2,104
1,519
25
       3,648
585
57.68%
41.64%
16.04%
Lyndon Twp
812
718
15
       1,545
94
52.56%
46.47%
6.08%
Manchester Twp
1,299
1,168
28
       2,495
131
52.06%
46.81%
5.25%
Northfield Twp
2,352
2,027
55
       4,434
325
53.04%
45.71%
7.33%
Salem Twp
2,130
1,330
52
       3,512
800
60.65%
37.87%
22.78%
City of Saline
2,656
2,418
44
       5,118
238
51.90%
47.25%
4.65%
Saline Twp
612
464
9
       1,085
148
56.41%
42.76%
13.64%
Scio Twp
4,244
6,262
90
     10,596
-2018
40.05%
59.10%
-19.04%
Sharon Twp
630
440
10
       1,080
190
58.33%
40.74%
17.59%
Sylvan Twp
983
819
19
       1,821
164
53.98%
44.98%
9.01%
Webster Twp
2,097
1,707
40
       3,844
390
54.55%
44.41%
10.15%









Total
174,954
143,968
3,507
322,429
30986
54.26%
44.65%
9.61%


Here's the 2000 numbers.


2000 Election
Bush
Gore
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Branch County
8,743
6,691
349
     15,783
2052
55.40%
42.39%
13.00%
Calhoun County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Albion
784
2,022
65
       2,871
-1238
27.31%
70.43%
-43.12%
Albion Twp
291
222
23
         536
69
54.29%
41.42%
12.87%
Athens Twp
636
422
28
       1,086
214
58.56%
38.86%
19.71%
City of Battle Creek
8,517
10,235
484
     19,236
-1718
44.28%
53.21%
-8.93%
Bedford Twp
1,905
2,233
111
       4,249
-328
44.83%
52.55%
-7.72%
Burlington Twp
426
311
24
         761
115
55.98%
40.87%
15.11%
Clarence Twp
550
377
32
         959
173
57.35%
39.31%
18.04%
Clarendon Twp
252
176
6
         434
76
58.06%
40.55%
17.51%
Convis Twp
453
266
12
         731
187
61.97%
36.39%
25.58%
Eckford Twp
381
256
7
         644
125
59.16%
39.75%
19.41%
Emmett Twp
2,518
2,339
130
       4,987
179
50.49%
46.90%
3.59%
Fredonia Twp
418
337
28
         783
81
53.38%
43.04%
10.34%
Homer Twp
487
447
29
         963
40
50.57%
46.42%
4.15%
Lee Twp
291
192
14
         497
99
58.55%
38.63%
19.92%
Marengo Twp
546
365
29
         940
181
58.09%
38.83%
19.26%
City of Marshall
1,704
1,605
132
       3,441
99
49.52%
46.64%
2.88%
Marshall Twp
906
681
37
       1,624
225
55.79%
41.93%
13.85%
Newton Twp
735
609
35
       1,379
126
53.30%
44.16%
9.14%
Pennfield Twp
2,202
1,874
111
       4,187
328
52.59%
44.76%
7.83%
Sheridan Twp
365
362
24
         751
3
48.60%
48.20%
0.40%
City of Springfield
646
926
49
       1,621
-280
39.85%
57.13%
-17.27%
Tekonsha Twp
349
338
16
         703
11
49.64%
48.08%
1.56%
Eaton County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bellevue Twp
690
580
30
       1,300
110
53.08%
44.62%
8.46%
Benton Twp
747
645
24
       1,416
102
52.75%
45.55%
7.20%
Brookfield Twp
343
260
22
         625
83
54.88%
41.60%
13.28%
Carmel Twp
732
556
21
       1,309
176
55.92%
42.48%
13.45%
City of Charlotte
1,600
1,582
89
       3,271
18
48.91%
48.36%
0.55%
Chester Twp
524
363
25
         912
161
57.46%
39.80%
17.65%
Delta Twp
8,076
7,902
398
     16,376
174
49.32%
48.25%
1.06%
City of Eaton Rapids
950
1,019
70
       2,039
-69
46.59%
49.98%
-3.38%
Eaton Rapids Twp
949
805
58
       1,812
144
52.37%
44.43%
7.95%
Eaton Twp
1,202
876
49
       2,127
326
56.51%
41.18%
15.33%
City of Grand Ledge
1,857
1,794
108
       3,759
63
49.40%
47.73%
1.68%
Hamlin Twp
728
597
34
       1,359
131
53.57%
43.93%
9.64%
Kalamo Twp
380
307
21
         708
73
53.67%
43.36%
10.31%
City of Lansing
347
1,351
28
       1,726
-1004
20.10%
78.27%
-58.17%
City of Olivet
217
185
21
         423
32
51.30%
43.74%
7.57%
Oneida Twp
1,113
864
53
       2,030
249
54.83%
42.56%
12.27%
City of Potterville
393
374
20
         787
19
49.94%
47.52%
2.41%
Roxand Twp
531
350
32
         913
181
58.16%
38.34%
19.82%
Sunfield Twp
600
360
22
         982
240
61.10%
36.66%
24.44%
Vermontville Twp
485
346
13
         844
139
57.46%
41.00%
16.47%
Walton Twp
467
349
25
         841
118
55.53%
41.50%
14.03%
Windsor Twp
1,872
1,746
96
       3,714
126
50.40%
47.01%
3.39%
Hillsdale County
10,483
6,495
497
     17,475
3988
59.99%
37.17%
22.82%
Jackson County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
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#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp
3,249
3,202
144
       6,595
47
49.26%
48.55%
0.71%
Columbia Twp
2,077
1,541
116
       3,734
536
55.62%
41.27%
14.35%
Concord Twp
713
421
37
       1,171
292
60.89%
35.95%
24.94%
Grass Lake Twp
1,242
939
82
       2,263
303
54.88%
41.49%
13.39%
Hanover Twp
980
665
30
       1,675
315
58.51%
39.70%
18.81%
Henrietta Twp
927
798
52
       1,777
129
52.17%
44.91%
7.26%
City of Jackson
4,259
6,431
310
     11,000
-2172
38.72%
58.46%
-19.75%
Leoni Twp
2,474
2,703
140
       5,317
-229
46.53%
50.84%
-4.31%
Liberty Twp
845
546
37
       1,428
299
59.17%
38.24%
20.94%
Napoleon Twp
1,521
1,477
87
       3,085
44
49.30%
47.88%
1.43%
Norvell Twp
715
661
43
       1,419
54
50.39%
46.58%
3.81%
Parma Twp
586
497
50
       1,133
89
51.72%
43.87%
7.86%
Pulaski Twp
473
313
24
         810
160
58.40%
38.64%
19.75%
Rives Twp
1,229
802
43
       2,074
427
59.26%
38.67%
20.59%
Sandstone Twp
1,023
576
35
       1,634
447
62.61%
35.25%
27.36%
Spring Arbor Twp
2,262
1,032
64
       3,358
1230
67.36%
30.73%
36.63%
Springport Twp
441
330
29
         800
111
55.13%
41.25%
13.88%
Summit Twp
5,800
4,180
325
     10,305
1620
56.28%
40.56%
15.72%
Tompkins Twp
652
485
19
       1,156
167
56.40%
41.96%
14.45%
Waterloo Twp
598
561
51
       1,210
37
49.42%
46.36%
3.06%
Lenawee County
20,681
18,365
1047
     40,093
2316
51.58%
45.81%
5.78%
Washtenaw County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp
422
330
22
         774
92
54.52%
42.64%
11.89%
City of Chelsea



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Dexter Twp
1,515
1,311
80
       2,906
204
52.13%
45.11%
7.02%
Freedom Twp
441
345
34
         820
96
53.78%
42.07%
11.71%
Lima Twp
959
774
81
       1,814
185
52.87%
42.67%
10.20%
Lodi Twp
1,849
1,178
89
       3,116
671
59.34%
37.80%
21.53%
Lyndon Twp
639
565
53
       1,257
74
50.84%
44.95%
5.89%
Manchester Twp
1,029
952
68
       2,049
77
50.22%
46.46%
3.76%
Northfield Twp
1,784
1,683
116
       3,583
101
49.79%
46.97%
2.82%
Salem Twp
1,646
1,108
86
       2,840
538
57.96%
39.01%
18.94%
City of Saline
2,063
1,939
135
       4,137
124
49.87%
46.87%
3.00%
Saline Twp
406
245
31
         682
161
59.53%
35.92%
23.61%
Scio Twp
3,667
4,537
278
       8,482
-870
43.23%
53.49%
-10.26%
Sharon Twp
630
440
10
       1,080
190
58.33%
40.74%
17.59%
Sylvan Twp
1,573
1,598
127
       3,298
-25
47.70%
48.45%
-0.76%
Webster Twp
1,460
1,225
67
       2,752
235
53.05%
44.51%
8.54%









Total
142,221
127,747
7,573
277,541
14474
51.24%
46.03%
5.22%


Breaking down the counties in presidential years.

Branch County
2008 - McCain - 52.14%, Obama 46.01% - 18,285 votes , 1121 vote spread
2004 - Bush - 60.02%, Kerry 38.98% - 17967 votes, 3780 vote spread
2000 - Bush - 55.40%, Gore 42.39% - 15783 votes, 2052 vote spread

Calhoun County
2008 - Obama - 54.35%, McCain 44.00% - 61697 votes, -6412 spread.
2004 - Bush 50.82%, Kerry 48.05%, 60596 votes, 1678 vote spread
2000 - Gore 49.82%, Bush 47.51%, 53383 votes, -1233 vote spread

Eaton County
2008 - Obama - 53.35%, McCain  - 44.95% - 57,619 votes, -4842 spread
2004 - Bush 53.40%, Kerry 45.57% - 55766 votes, 4370 vote spread
2000 - Bush 50.34%, Gore 47.11% - 49273 votes, 1592 vote spread

Hillsdale County
2008 - McCain - 54.87%, Obama - 42.86% - 20449 votes, 2456 vote spread
2004 - Bush 63.34%, Kerry 35.23% - 20216 votes, 5681 vote spread
2000 - Bush 59.99%, Gore 37.17% - 17475 votes, 3988 vote spread

Jackson County
2008 - Obama - 50.30%, McCain - 47.90% - 74513 votes, -1788 vote spread
2004 - Bush 55.76%, Kerry 43.22% - 71789 votes, 9004 vote spread
2000 - Bush 51.77%, Gore 45.46% - 61944 votes, 3906 vote spread

Lenawee County
2008 - Obama -  51.62%, McCain - 46.56% - 47734 votes, -2415 vote spread
2004 - Bush - 54.61%, Kerry 44.22% - 47012 votes, 4888 vote spread
2000 - Bush - 51.58%, Gore 45.81% - 40093 votes, 2316 vote spread

Washtenaw County (Chelsea in 2000 was not incorporated as a city, hence the Sylvan Twp numbers being what they are)
2008 - Obama - 54.57%, McCain - 43.99% - 52029 votes, -5503 vote spread
2004 - Bush 51.11%, Kerry 47.88% - 49083 votes, 1585 vote spread.
2000 - Bush 50.72%, Gore 46.05% - 3950 votes, 1853 vote spread

The farm club here is very competitive.

St Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Eaton County is in the 7th district. It's a solid GOP district with Barry and Allegan County leading the way, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.This is an open seat with Patti Birkholz termed out.


St Senate 24th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
06 - Birkholz/Royston
64,737
46,480

   111,217
18257
58.21%
41.79%
16.42%
02 - Birkholz/Birdson
57,906
32,170

     90,076
25736
64.29%
35.71%
28.57%

St. Senate 19th - Covers All of Calhoun and most of Jackson County - Mike Nofs won the open seat in a special election to replace Mark Schauer. It's a true swing district. I did a preview of the 19th before the special election that lays this district out in detail. 


St Senate 19th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




09 - Nofs/Griffin
20327
11385
1543
     33,255
8942
61.12%
34.24%
26.89%
06 - Schauer/Fulton
32078
50612

     82,690
-18534
38.79%
61.21%
-22.41%
02 - Schauer/Mortimer
32,281
39,673

     71,954
-7392
44.86%
55.14%
-10.27%

St. Senate 18th - Covers the City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Twp, Augusta Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lyndon Twp, Northfield Twp, a small portion of Pittsfield Twp, Salem Twp, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Superior Twp, Sylvan Twp, City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Twp in Washtenaw County. This is one of the most democrat state senate seats in the state. Most of this is in the 15th District (Dingell), but some of this is in the 7th.


St Senate 18th
GOP
Dem






06 - Kopinski/Brater
29,075
72,774
3
   101,852
-43699
28.55%
71.45%
-42.90%
02 - Darr/Brater
27,726
52,912
2635
     83,273
-25186
33.30%
63.54%
-30.25%

St. Senate 17th - Covers all of Monroe County, Grass Lake, Leoni, Norvell, and Summit Twps in Jackson County, and Bridgwater Twp, Lodi Twp, Manchester Twp, city of Milan, Pittsfield Twp, City of Saline, Saline Twp, and York Twp in Washtenaw County. This is another swing district. Monroe County is a swing county that has gone democrat more than republican. The rest of the area swings as well, although Washtenaw County portion is more democrat and the Jackson County portion more republican, although neither overwhelmingly so (Jackson thanks to Leoni, Washtenaw, thanks to everything but Pittsfield).The Jackson County and some of the Washtenaw County portion is in the 7th district. The rest is in the 15th. Randy Richardville is the incumbent who won in the tough 2006 year.


St Senate 17th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Richardville/Schockman
52113
45445

     97,558
6668
53.42%
46.58%
6.83%
02 - Hammerstrom/LeMasters
44773
30262

     75,035
14511
59.67%
40.33%
19.34%


St Senate 16th - Covers Lenawee Branch, Hillsdale, and St Joseph Counties. - Most of this district outside of St Joe is also in the 7th district. This is a generally solid GOP district, but one of the Spades is running for this seat. That will make this more competitive than it otherwise would have been. Dudley lost bad in 02, but won his county, and now has three terms as rep. Don't sleep on this one, despite the 60%+ numbers.


St Senate 16th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Brown/Christner
52,699
28,128

     80,827
24571
65.20%
34.80%
30.40%
02 - Brown/Spade
39894
25604

     65,498
14290
60.91%
39.09%
21.82%



St Rep 71st - Covers almost all of Eaton County outside Brookfield Twp, City of Eaton Rapids, and Hamlin Twp.Rick Jones is term limited, and the dems are going to probably take a shot at this district. Don't let the Jones numbers fool you. This will be a tough race unless the GOP has as good of candidate as they did in 02.


St Rep 71st
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Jones/Eagle
29,171
21,068

     50,239
8103
58.06%
41.94%
16.13%
06 - Jones/Braatz
23,713
16,833

     40,546
6880
58.48%
41.52%
16.97%
04 - Jones/LaTourette
28,643
18,628
1098
     48,369
10015
59.22%
38.51%
20.71%
02 - Tabor/Freeman
19,326
15,383

     34,709
3943
55.68%
44.32%
11.36%



St Rep 65th - Covers Brookfield Twp, City of Eaton Rapids, and Hamin Twp in Eaton County, and Blackman Twp, Columbia Twp, Grass Lake Twp, Henrietta Twp, Leoni Twp, Liberty Twp, Norvell Twp, Rives Twp, Springport Twp, Tompkins Twp, Waterloo Twp, and Cambridge Twp in Jackson County, along with Cambridge Twp in Lenawee County. This is a swing seat with a slight Republican leaning. It is now vacant, and was held by the popular democrat Mike Simpson before his untimely death.



St Rep 65th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Snell/Simpson
14,759
25,451

     40,210
-10692
36.70%
63.30%
-26.59%
06 - L. Mortimer/Simpson
15,123
16,723

     31,846
-1600
47.49%
52.51%
-5.02%
04 - L. Mortimer/Simpson
20,014
18,915

     38,929
1099
51.41%
48.59%
2.82%
02 - Kratz/Renier
13,934
10,960

     24,894
2974
55.97%
44.03%
11.95%



St Rep 64th - Covers Concord Twp, Hanover Twp, City of Jackson, Napoleon Twp, Parma Twp, Pulaski Twp, Sandstone Twp, Spring Arbor Twp and Summit Twp in Jackson County. This is a swing district that has voted for both Republicans and Democrats in the past. It has a slight Republican leaning at the top of the ticket with Sandstone, Spring Arbor, and Summit usually outvoting Jackson City, but locally, Summit likes Marty Griffin, and that tilted this district to his favor. Griffin is a two term incumbent who won in 06 and 08.



St Rep 64th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Prebble/Griffin
14,454
24,260

     38,714
-9806
37.34%
62.66%
-25.33%
06 - Baxter/Griffin
14,178
15,703

     29,881
-1525
47.45%
52.55%
-5.10%
04 - Baxter/Griffin
18,727
18,429
498
     37,654
298
49.73%
48.94%
0.79%
02 - Bisbee/McNitt
15,928
8,936

     24,864
6992
64.06%
35.94%
28.12%


St Rep 63rd - Covers one precint in Battle Creek, Bedford Twp, Emmett Twp, Marshall City and Twp, Newton Twp, and Pennfield Twp in Calhoun County. Covers Brady Twp, Charleston Twp, Climax Twp, Comstock Twp, City of Galesburg, Pavilion Twp, Richland Twp, Ross Twp, Schoolcraft Twp, and Wakeshma Twp in Kalamazoo County.This is a lean GOP, but not solid GOP district.


St Rep 63rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Bolger/Smith
27,641
21,188

     48,829
6453
56.61%
43.39%
13.22%
06 - Wenke/Smith
21,263
17,352

     38,615
3911
55.06%
44.94%
10.13%
04 - Wenke/Geary
28,181
19,723

     47,904
8458
58.83%
41.17%
17.66%
02 - Wenke/Mackinder
18,093
13,918

     32,011
4175
56.52%
43.48%
13.04%


St Rep 62nd - Covers most of Calhoun County. All except Leroy and part of Athens Twp is in this district. The rest is in the 6th District.This seat leans slightly democrat, although Nofs held it for three terms. Mark Schauer had it before him, and I believe a GOP'er had it before Mark Schauer. This seat can be competitive.


St Rep 62nd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Moore/Segal
15,426
25,029

     40,455
-9603
38.13%
61.87%
-23.74%
06 - Nofs/Haley
15,639
13,533

     29,172
2106
53.61%
46.39%
7.22%
04 - Nofs/Haley
20,935
18,289

     39,224
2646
53.37%
46.63%
6.75%
02 - Nofs/Dearing
13,619
11,986

     25,605
1633
53.19%
46.81%
6.38%

St Rep 58th - Covers Branch and Hillsdale Counties - Solid Republican district. Ken Kurtz is the current incumbent, winning in 2008.



St Rep 58th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Kurtz/Kennedy-Windsor
24,487
12,151

     36,638
12336
66.83%
33.17%
33.67%
06 - Caswell/Smith
21,317
7,925

     29,242
13392
72.90%
27.10%
45.80%
04 - Caswell/Gabbard
26,945
9,726

     36,671
17219
73.48%
26.52%
46.96%
02 - Caswell/Magda
14,836
7,349

     22,185
7487
66.87%
33.13%
33.75%



St Rep 57th - Covers all of Lenawee County outside of Cambridge Twp. This is a swing district won by both Tim Walberg several times and the Spade brothers three times a piece (Doug and Dudley). Dudley Spade is termed out



St Rep 57th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Jenkins/Du.Spade
13,753
29,128

     42,881
-15375
32.07%
67.93%
-35.86%
06 - Koehn/Du. Spade
10,420
20,782

     31,202
-10362
33.40%
66.60%
-33.21%
04 - Abraham/Du. Spade
17,640
25,183

     42,823
-7543
41.19%
58.81%
-17.61%
02 - Gallagher/Do.Spade
7,877
17,887

     25,764
-10010
30.57%
69.43%
-38.85%



St Rep 52nd - Covers Northeastern Ann Arbor, most of Ann Arbor Twp, Bridgwater Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lodi Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, City of Saline, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp. This was created as a swing district, but does have some democrat leanings, especially within the last 6 years. Gene DeRossett won the district in 2002 by winning big in the far western townships as a two term incumbent (of a less democrat district). Pam Byrnes won the 2004 open seat and has held it since. She's termed out. The open seat I'd say favors a democrat, but the Republicans have their best candidate running in Mark Ouimet, who as a county commissioner, somehow still wins in Scio Twp. This will be one to watch.


St Rep 52nd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Lielbriedis/Byrnes
19,180
35,957
1982
     57,119
-16777
33.58%
62.95%
-29.37%
06 - Brown/Byrnes
16,747
28,046

     44,793
-11299
37.39%
62.61%
-25.22%
04 - Yekulis/Byrnes
24,669
29,740

     54,409
-5071
45.34%
54.66%
-9.32%
02 - DeRossett/Byrnes
19,579
17,091

     36,670
2488
53.39%
46.61%
6.78%

Overall, the 7th district area is one of the most competitive and independent leaning areas in the state. Unless someone is able to do what Nick Smith did in the 90's and get almost all the sides on board to win, it should be competitive for a long time. Schwarz was a one termer. Walberg was as well, although he might win it back. Schauer only had 48%. Most of the state rep and state senate seats are competitive or capable of being competitive. I expect the populist nature of the district to recoil against the national democrats soon with the big government of the feds. Whether it expands to the state level is unknown because there are a lot of state workers in this district. Eaton County is next to Lansing. Calhoun County has some commuters. Jackson County is known for corrections, although much of that is now gone. Social liberals don't usually play well here, and neither does big business, so that will make things interesting for 2010.

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