Primaries, Tea parties, establishments, Obamacare, and the Icaucus poll

There's a lot of talk right now about primaries and potential primaries.

My view is that primaries (which should be closed) aren't a bad thing if done right. It demonstrates that candidate x is the choice of Republicans (or Democrats in their primary) to be their nominee in the November election. It gives people a choice. The establishment is not entitled to the nomination solely due to incumbency. The tea party does not necessary deserve the seat either because they are "the true conservative". That's why we have primaries. Candidates - on all sides - need to earn nomination. 

Former State Rep Leon Drolet is expecting to challenge incumbent State Senator Torry Rocca in the 10th District (SD-10)

Anti-tax activist Leon Drolet sounds ready to take on Republican Sen. Tory Rocca of Sterling Heights, who is part of the Lansing Gang of Eight. Rocca’s surprising pro-Medicaid vote came on the heels of a vote against right-to-work legislation last December.
As only Drolet can do, the former state representative tried to fireproof himself while throwing gasoline on the blaze.
He told the Lansing-based Gongwer news service that, if he challenges Rocca, Macomb County Republicans will have a choice to make: “Would they rather be represented by a principled gay conservative or by a big government RINO who, frankly, screws them more than anybody else. If the focus of that primary becomes who’s screwing who, one thing has become exceptionally clear: Tory Rocca screws Republican primary voters.”

That's a tough labor friendly district, although with Roseville out, a much easier district to hold. 

In other primary news that surprised few people, David Trott is challenging incumbent Kerry Bentivolio. Bentivolio From Crain's

David Trott, chairman and CEO of Farmington Hills-based Trott & Trott PC who also owns Attorneys Title Agency LLC and co-owns Dietz Trott Sports & Entertainment, announced today he is a candidate to replace U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in Michigan's 11th congressional district.
Trott, a Republican, will likely appear on the Aug. 5, 2014, Republican primary ballot as a candidate against Bentivolio, who lost a partial term election last November to Democrat David Curson, but won a separate election to a full two-year term in the seat for southwestern Oakland County and northwestern Wayne County.
Bentivolio is expected to seek a second term in November 2014, but Bentivolio communications director Matt Chisholm could not be immediately reached for comment.
Campaign co-chairs for Trott will be former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop, Wayne County Commissioner Laura Cox, Former Congressional candidate Rocky Raczkowski, and Ronna Romney McDaniel.

Bentivolio won due to McCotter not making the ballot. However, Bentivolio is stronger now as an incumbent. I don't think this is going to be a shoo-in for Trott or anybody. I know Trott is well known among Oakland County's party leadership, but he's not that well known with voters, at least yet. I also expect a heavy tea party vs establishment battle there.

As far as gubernatorial primaries go, here's the latest from Icaucus Michigan

Survey Reveals Snyder and Calley Vulnerable to August 2014 Ouster

CEDAR SPRINGS – A statewide survey conducted in Michigan last week shows Governor Rick Snyder to be “clearly vulnerable” and Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley to be “likely vulnerable” to being removed from the 2014 Michigan Republican ticket instead of re-nomination for a second term, according to Kevin Heine, Chief Strategist for iCaucus Michigan.  This survey was paid for by iCaucus (a private, non-profit corporation headquartered in Cheyenne, Wyoming), and is not associated with any sitting elected official, any known or potential candidate for the 2014 election cycle, or any political party.

The survey sample consisted of 744 republican convention delegates and alternates, and was drawn from the master delegation lists for the last three Michigan Republican Party state conventions (May 2012, September 2012, and February 2013).  This is the same delegation pool that elected Dave Agema as National Committeeman by a 7-to-3 margin, but also reelected Bobby Schostak as State Chairman (though by the much smaller margin of 3.86%).  The survey was conducted during the timeframe of August 26^th thru 30^th, used email-link polling, and has a margin of error of ±4.08% at the 95% confidence level.  (The survey sample includes 29 respondents from a test run conducted during the previous week.)

I saw the Icaucus poll about whether the Governor Rick Snyder should have a primary challenger or should be replaced in the primary. Two things that should be taken from any poll. Unnamed always wins. "Generic challenger" is always the non-existent person you think should be the nominee from that party. I never endorse "generic" for that reason and always take the generic candidate with a grain of salt. One sports analyst I read always says the "unknown is undefeated" and that is true for politics as well. The grass is always greener on the other side until it isn't when the "generic" is replaced by a human. All candidates have their flaws.

What I liked from the Icaucus poll is that it actually had some names out there. The pool of voters for this survey were those who attended recent republican state conventions. It's a part of the base. Keep in mind is that this is probably Snyder's low water mark among Republicans over the Medicaid Expansion vote. I expect his numbers to improve some next year.

The results there showed

Snyder Approval - 55.78% - Disapproval - 34.41% - Neither 9.81%

Does Snyder deserve a primary challenger? (Generic question)

Yes - 48.39%, No 38.71% - Unsure - 12.90%

Does Calley deserve a primary challenger? (Generic question)

Yes - 39.65%, No 35.08% - Unsure - 25.27%

As shown here, the generic always wins. The unknown is undefeated. However, the numbers change with real people. 

Snyder vs Agema:
Agema 42.34%, Snyder 32.39% - Unsure - 25.27%

Agema is well known among state convention attendees due to his successful challenge of Saul Anuzis for RNC Committeeman.

Snyder vs Bishop:
Snyder 36.83%, Bishop 24.19% - Unsure 38.98%

Somewhat surprising. I figured Bishop would have stronger numbers.

Snyder vs Butler:
Snyder 38.98%, Butler 11.29% - Unsure 49.73%

Butler ran for Senate in 2006. Among tea party activists, he's probably not well known as most got involved around 2009 or 2010.

Snyder vs Betsy DeVos:
Snyder 40.59%, DeVos 18.41% - Unsure 40.99%

Tea party probably views DeVos as establishment.

Snyder vs Glenn
Snyder 39.11%, Glenn 30.78% - Unsure 30.11%

Glenn is a good organizer, but he's also ticked off a lot of people over MI4CS and the senate campaign.

Snyder vs Hoekstra
Snyder 47.04%, Hoekstra 21.77% - Unsure 31.18%

Not surprised after 2012.

Snyder vs Schuette
Schuette 39.44%, Snyder 31.85% - Unsure 29.70%

Not surprised here, although I figured Schuette would poll best instead of Agema.

What this shows is that there's a lot of grumbling, but on the same note, the base (meaning both establishment, tea party, and regular old conservatives) isn't going to push for just anybody to be a challenger. Despite the current environment and current noise, a good 40% or so are going to stay with Snyder period as things stand now unless Agema or Schuette run. Both of them have won conventions there in the past. I can't see Schuette challenging Snyder at all. Agema is popular from his run for RNC Committeeman. Third closest here was Gary Glenn who is a good organizer whose campaign people (MI4CS, etc) have more influence than I'd like at these conventions. I'm pretty sure Glenn's running for state rep instead in Midland. Snyder's best showing was against Hoekstra, and I bet 95% of that was due to the 2012 campaign. That was reassuring because it shows that campaign ability matters to convention attendees.

If asked whether I am open to voting for a primary challenger to Snyder (or anyone else), my answer is as follows. "Depends on the candidate." My criteria is as follows.

1. Candidate must be electable in the general election. I'm well aware of Mark Schauer's record over the last 15 years. I'll say it very eloquently. Schauer's record absolutely sucks. He does what leadership tells him to do. Most democrats do what they are told, and Schauer does that even more than most.

Electable does not necessarily mean "moderate" (often confused with demeanor)  as ideology is only one aspect - and I think a relatively small one - in general electability. I've seen far right and far left candidates both very electable - and very unelectable. The same goes for moderates, some of whom are awful candidates. Nothing personal against moderate-conservative Pete Hoekstra whom I personally like, but he was as electable as Sharron Angle (lost due to mouth) who has every bad stereotype one has about tea party. I determine electability through demeanor, work ethic, ability to raise money, ability to avoid foot in mouth disease, and elective history. Some of the names in that list are electable and some are not.

2. The candidate must have a plan and be able to adjust. "I'm the true conservative" won't get my vote in and of itself. Mouths are cheap, and I'm tired of them.

3. Must have a strong work ethic. If you are going to primary Snyder, you better have an insane campaign work ethic - because you'll have to finish the job against Mark Schauer. You'll need a Joe Hune 2002 or 2010 level of work ethic. If you're not willing to do that, don't bother as you're wasting everyone's time, not to mention unelectable.

Many are irked about Medicaid expansion and Obamacare as the reason for primaries. People are looking for someone to stand up to Obamacare. There is little that can be done on the state level (nullification is a pipe dream - whether it should be or not, don't count on it) to fight it. That doesn't mean Medicaid Expansion should have passed, but not passing it wasn't going to mean Obamacare wasn't going to have its tentacles affect Michigan as well, jackboot style. 

The best way to get rid of Obamacare is to slay the actual dragon. Obamacare, it's individual mandate, costs, medical device taxes, IRS power expansion, and prison sentences,  all passed due to 59 dem senators, a massive house majority, and Obama. Despite what some say, one branch of the house can not defund Obamacare on its own without a government shutdown. The US House has voted twice to repeal Obamacare. That's what it could do. It hasn't even been taken up for a vote in the Senate. Harry Reid is to blame for that. Michigan needs to do its part by denying Gary Peters a promotion. After that, then give the Peter Principle in Chief an offer he can't refuse.

Ideals are important. Getting them executed and having the ability to do it is more important. These are marathons, not sprints. Four years isn't a long time when it comes to trying to repeal bad laws. It took 8 years to get shall-issue CPL passed in Michigan. The best way to stop Obamacare is to elect a good senator instead of yesman Gary Peters. That's the next head of the dragon that needs to be slain - the senate. In 2016, getting the presidency back is key. Then actually repeal the damn thing.

Congressional District 11 (MI-11) - Updated

Update 2014: This is going to be an ugly race. Bentivolio has a tough primary against Trott. After that, the winner, likely wounded, will be facing a dem. Hopefully the dems all beat the hell out of each other.

MI-11 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 2

Challengers – Dave Trott (R-Birmingham), Anil Kumar (D-Farmington), Bobby McKenzie (D-Canton), Bill Roberts (D-Livonia), Nancy Skinner (D-Birmingham)

2012:

Kerry Bentivolio – 180941 – 50.77%

Syed Taj  – 158101 – 44.36%

22840 vote difference

Romney – 198323 votes – 52.24%

Obama – 177959 votes – 46.87%

20364 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Clawson, Rochester Hills, Northville, West Bloomfield reprecincted)

McCain – 48.35%

Obama –  50.14%

2004: (approx)

Bush – 55.86%

Kerry – 43.19%

Notes – Clawson, Rochester Hills, and West Bloomfield reprecincted which makes this tough to get good numbers. Northville (Wayne County Portion) either reported with the Township or their numbers in 2012 didn’t get posted. Clawson is slightly dem. Rochester Hills is R. The portion of West Bloomfield in this district is competitive compared to the portion in MI-14 that is staunchly democrat. I took a guess on 08 and 04 with those areas, and skipped the Wayne County part of Northville (city) in 2012 assuming it was reported with the township.

This district received a lot of attention in 2012. Thad McCotter, then incumbent ran for president. He then dropped and ran for congress. His campaign staff was caught in a major petition fraud scandal and McCotter resigned and did not run for re-election. The old district elected (on November) democrat David Curson to replace him for a short period. Kerry Bentivolio was the only name on the ballot. He beat write-ins, lost to Curson, and beat Syed Taj. At first, I thought there would be name bias against Taj due to some campaign experiences I’ve had. There wasn’t really. The congressional race generally went similar to the top of the ticket. The old district had some strong democrat areas no longer in the district.  

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

2004

 

Starting at the southwest corner is the Wayne County portion of the map. That big blue spot in the SW is Canton Township (part of it on the map). Canton is becoming a trouble spot for it. It’s been tough for awhile, but it flipped big in 2008 and 2012.  The dems broke 55% here twice after Bush winning it twice. Part of it is the growing (and voting) Indian population, along with some migration from Westland and Ypsi/Ann Arbor. While there’s a lot of money in Canton, there’s also a bit of a populist streak here compared to Northville or Plymouth Twp’s next door. Some work has to be done here so that Canton is not the next Westland when it comes to voting.

Northeast of there is Livonia. Livonia is the largest city in the district and it’s usually consistent. Outside of the bad year of 2008, the Republicans have gotten in the low 50’s in the city rather consistently. It is a little more social conservative than most suburbs in that region, but also a little more populist than next door Plymouth/Northville. It’s largely white ethnic Catholic. Thad McCotter fit the district.

West of there is Plymouth and Northville. The townships are safe republican. Even McCain won them, although Bush got over 60% in Northville Twp. Romney got 58% in Northville Twp and 56% (Bush 57%) in Plymouth Twp. The city of Plymouth swings and votes for both R’s and D’s. Bush won it twice (barely). McCain was crushed. Romney lost it narrowly. I’m not sure how Romney did in the city of Northville on the Wayne County side, but it usually goes R, 2008 notwithstanding. Romney won it with 52% which is a far cry from Bush’s 55%+. That’s due to Canton being the 2^nd to Livonia in population in this district.

North of Livonia is Farmington. Farmington Hills surrounds 90% of Farmington, but is in the 14^th District. Farmington was consistently republicans as recently as 2005 or so. Romney did worse than McCain here by percentage and almost equal in votes. Bush’s 51% is now Romney’s 42.02%. Migration.

North of Northville Twp is Novi and the Oakland part of Northville which is slightly more R than the Wayne County part of Northville (City). Novi is a major danger zone and area of concern right now. If you told me 8 years ago that Obama would win Novi in 2008 and that Romney would get 50% there, I’d laugh in your face. It was 57% in 2004 and was 60%+ not long before that. It was a base city. Now it may become the next Farmington Hills. Migration is part of it, and so is the immigrant Indian population voting heavily democrat.

North of there is Wixom, Walled Lake, and Commerce Township. Commerce Township has stayed solid R. Romney’s 58% was just shy of Bush’s 59%. With West Bloomfield to the East, that’s a township to keep watch on. It hasn’t gone in the direction of Novi or Farmington Hills as least for now. Walled Lake is and was a swing area for a long time. Gore, Bush, Obama, and Romney won it. Wixom moved heavily dem after the Ford plant closed. One precinct is the major problem. It’s full of cheap apartments. A lot of the apartments were rented to commuted auto workers who needed a place to crash. After the plant closed, they all opened up to new residents. These apartments here aren’t exactly high dollar. Romney won three of the four precincts in Wixom, one by nearly 2-1. The largest precinct he lost  1185-378.

North of there is White Lake Twp. It’s safe R, although it dropped below 60% Bush got 61% here to Romney’s 58%. Along the western tier next to Novi, Wixom, Commerce, and White Lake are the most Republican parts of the district. Lyon Township, South Lyon, Milford Twp, and Highland Twp. Those areas aren’t much different than Livingston County in its politics. Those are 60%+ areas usually outside of the City of South Lyon which usually is still 55% or more R.

East of Commerce Twp is West Bloomfield Twp. Most of it, including the areas that make is solidly D, are in the 14^th district. The part here is competitive and sometimes goes R. Romney won the parts here. North of there is competitive Waterford Twp. Bush won it twice, but it wasn’t won easily. It’s historically blue collar white and pro-union. Part of that is still there. There are also some affluent areas in Waterford due to the lakefronts. There’s also some movement from Pontiac also affecting the area. Romney won it, but barely broke 50%. Bush did much better here in 04, although he struggled in 2000 here.

Lake Angelus next door has only about 250 voters and it’s 80%+R unless you’re McCain. Auburn Hills is another story. It was formerly Republican despite Oakland University until Pontiac moved there. Now it’s 25%+ black and went more dem in 2012 than 2008. Migration. East of Auburn Hills is Rochester Hills. It’s mostly in the 8^th. Part of it is a bridge to Troy. Troy leans R, but not like it was. Bush got 56% there. Romney got 52%. Troy has a large Indian population. Like Novi, if you told me it would go dem in 2008, I’d laugh in your face. I’m not laughing. Clawson south of Troy is tougher territory. It went for Gore, Bush, and Obama twice. I don’t know a lot of Clawson except driving through it.

Lastly, to the west of Troy is Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills. Birmingham is probably the most socially liberal somewhat republican area in the state. It’s very affluent and well known for its money. Romney did very well here, doing slightly better than Bush in 2004. McCain cratered here. Bloomfield Hills is more conservative, and was Romney’s best area outside of Sylvan Lake. He got 66%, running ahead of Bush here as well. When you hear about “moderate Oakland County”, this is the area that is usually described.

Overall, this is a district to watch. Can Republicans stop the bleeding here in Canton, Novi, and Troy? That’s a must, if Republicans are going to be competitive in the state, and it’s a must if this district wants to avoid hitting another Gary Peters type in 2008. Commerce Twp is also one to watch just due to geography, as is Livonia (East side in particular).

Another thing to watch here is a possible primary. There is a strong R bench in this district, and Bentivolio was not expected to be a congressman. He had the guts and good fortune to get his petitions in and have his name on the ballot in the primary. When McCotter was knocked out,  he was it, and he won in the general against a weak opponent. Will one of the Oakland Establishment run? If there’s a nasty primary, will the other side vote for the losing candidate or skip the race? This is going to be a real interesting district to watch in 2016.

MI-11:	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Oakland County
Auburn Hills	3776	5608	9512	-1832	39.70%	58.96%
Birmingham	7136	5826	13035	1310	54.74%	44.70%
Bloomfield Hills	1843	916	2767	927	66.61%	33.10%
Clawson 2	508	692	1220	-184	41.64%	56.72%
Clawson 3	572	617	1207	-45	47.39%	51.12%
Clawson 4	496	537	1059	-41	46.84%	50.71%
Clawson 5	724	786	1533	-62	47.23%	51.27%
Commerce Twp	12596	8673	21487	3923	58.62%	40.36%
Farmington	2471	3370	5881	-899	42.02%	57.30%
Highland Twp	6307	3847	10292	2460	61.28%	37.38%
Lake Angelus	216	38	256	178	84.38%	14.84%
Lyon Twp	5067	3025	8152	2042	62.16%	37.11%
Milford Twp	5673	3569	9317	2104	60.89%	38.31%
Northville	1203	927	2156	276	55.80%	43.00%
Novi	14714	14110	29074	604	50.61%	48.53%
Novi Twp	55	46	101	9	54.46%	45.54%
Rochester Hills 1-6	784	689	1493	95	52.51%	46.15%
RH 3-3	492	454	957	38	51.41%	47.44%
RH 3-13	552	432	992	120	55.65%	43.55%
South Lyon	3258	2427	5729	831	56.87%	42.36%
Troy	22316	19915	42588	2401	52.40%	46.76%
Walled Lake	1680	1638	3365	42	49.93%	48.68%
Waterford Twp	17896	17299	35645	597	50.21%	48.53%
West Bloomfield Twp 2	809	777	1605	32	50.40%	48.41%
WB 4	836	805	1656	31	50.48%	48.61%
WB 5	797	791	1602	6	49.75%	49.38%
WB 8	1036	805	1852	231	55.94%	43.47%
WB 14	612	555	1178	57	51.95%	47.11%
WB 25	845	753	1617	92	52.26%	46.57%
White Lake Twp	9168	6406	15753	2762	58.20%	40.67%
Wixom	3217	3229	6499	-12	49.50%	49.68%
Total	127655	109562	239580	18093	53.28%	45.73%
Wayne County
Canton Twp	19912	25021	45268	-5109	43.99%	55.27%
Livonia	28608	26229	55274	2379	51.76%	47.45%
Northville				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Northville Twp	10085	7094	17248	2991	58.47%	41.13%
Plymouth	2506	2689	5239	-183	47.83%	51.33%
Plymouth Twp	9557	7364	17041	2193	56.08%	43.21%
Total	70668	68397	140070	2271	50.45%	48.83%
Total All	198323	177959	379650	20364	52.24%	46.87%

MI-11 still a cluster by electing two congressmen

The 11th district elected two congressmen last Tuesday. I thought this could happen, because of differences in the new and old districts. Thank you McCotter campaign staffers.

I've heard conflicting things about the special election in the 11th. The AP called it at first for Bentivolio. I saw three sources now that called it for David Curson, so I think that's the correct call now. That's the Secretary of State's call as well.

Old 11th:
David Curson  - 159,267
Kerry Bentivolio - 151,740
Third Parties - 18,139

New 11th
Kerry Bentivolio - 181,796
Syed Taj - 158,889
Third Parties - About 18,000

Thanks to McCotter and his campaign staff, we have a two month period of a dem in a lame duck session with major fiscal discussions. Thanks, man.

This still isn't over. Besides the court cases, there may be a nasty primary here in 2014. What Bentivolio needs to do starting in January is to work the district hard. People first and foremost want competence here with the district related issues that don't get the press. Constituent relations is key. If Bentivolio shores that up, thinks before he speaks and doesn't do a Todd Akin, and works hard, he can survive a primary/general in 2014.



 

MI-11 Special election - Bentivolio wins a close race

Based on what I see - I THINK Bentivolio is going to win the special election primary.

As of 8:56 Bentivolio is up in Oakland:

Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		51.04%	1,327
Nancy Cassis (REP)		38.15%	992
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.46%	64
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		5.15%	134
Steve King (REP)		2.85%	74
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.35%	9
			2,600

How that's just the Oakland part and I've seen NOTHING at this point from Wayne County. That's 14 precincts reported, and 38 precincts partially reported in Oakland.

Looking at the geography, I have no doubt that Bentilvolio is winning Oakland. Cassis split in Novi and is doing well in the areas of Lyon Township and Commerce Township near Novi. Bentivolio is cleaning up Northern Oakland in a sweep. Most of what is to be reported here is in North Oakland.

I'm blind with Wayne County right now and that's the majority of the district. That's why I can't call it for Bentivolio with any confidence. Kavanagh is from Livonia. Novi borders Northville in Wayne County.

Turnout is about what I expect. Jack and squat. Jack left town. If McCotter's people didn't FUBAR the situation, this special wouldn't have needed to occur.

Update at 9:06

		Percent	Votes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		47.58%	1,944
Nancy Cassis (REP)		41.43%	1,693
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.30%	94
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		5.36%	219
Steve King (REP)		2.94%	120
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.39%	16
			4,086

Change no doubt to a small doubt.

Update 9:29 - Now it's real interesting.
 56 of 85 Precincts Reporting

		Percent	Votes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		44.76%	2,849
Nancy Cassis (REP)		43.14%	2,746
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.56%	163
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		6.06%	386
Steve King (REP)		3.16%	201
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.31%	20
			6,365

Novi is all in though. Commerce (some good Cassis and good Bentivolio areas) still has a lot to report. So does Highland (Bentivolio advantage) and White Lake (probably Bentivolio). I still haven't seen anything in Wayne County.

Update 9:35 - Finally something from Wayne County

Bentivolio is up about  600 votes in early returns in Wayne County. 

Looks good overall for Bentivolio,

Update 9:56 - Everything in Oakland is done outside of three precincts in White Lake.

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 11TH DISTRICT (Vote For 1)	VIEW PRECINCT DETAIL     Vote type summary	Precinct Detail Map
82 of 85 Precincts Reporting
Percent Votes Kerry Bentivolio (REP) 43.76% 3,573 Nancy Cassis (REP) 43.66% 3,565 Kenneth Crider (REP) 2.76% 225 Carolyn Kavanagh (REP) 6.32% 516 Steve King (REP) 3.25% 265 WRITE-IN (REP) 0.26% 21 8,165

This is going to be decided in Wayne County, and I just got some egg on my face from getting cocky after watching 14 precincts in, and underestimating Commerce Township. Nothing new in Wayne County, so it's about a 600 vote lead overall for Bentivolio.

Update 10:12 - Oakland is all reported.

85 of 85 Precincts Reporting

Percent Votes Kerry Bentivolio (REP) 43.79% 3,659 Nancy Cassis (REP) 43.49% 3,634 Kenneth Crider (REP) 2.81% 235 Carolyn Kavanagh (REP) 6.38% 533 Steve King (REP) 3.26% 272 WRITE-IN (REP) 0.26% 22 8,355

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 11TH DISTRICT (Vote For 1)	VIEW PRECINCT DETAIL     Vote type summary	Precinct Detail Map
85 of 85 Precincts Reporting
Percent Votes David A. Curson (DEM) 99.37% 2,693 WRITE-IN (DEM) 0.63% 17 2,710

Turnout was almost nothing.  6.93% Bentivolio was up about 600 in Wayne County last I checked. Wayne County is going to decide this one.

Update 10:29 - This one is PROBABLY over
85% in for Wayne County
Bentivolio - 5359
Cassis - 4131

The rest are back in the pack. Kavanagh, King, Crider, in that order. Curson has 7175 votes in Wayne County on the dem side. 

It's probably safe to call the primary for Bentivolio. With this low of turnout, I don't see Cassis making up 1200 votes with Oakland being nearly tied.

MI-11 - Is this poll legit or does it matter?

I'm still skeptical about this. I think it will take at least 35,000 write-in votes to have a shot. If a quitter in MI-8 got 22,000 votes (in 2010) after announcing he's quitting over a write-in, It would take probably 35K to play ball, and Bentivolio's actually running a campaign. I don't like coronations so I hope Bentivolio wins. I think he'll hang on just because of the difficulty of a write-in election for a large office.

From the Free Press:

WASHINGTON –Winning a write-in campaign for a nomination to Congress is daunting, but former state Sen. Nancy Cassis appears to be heading in the right direction.
Cassis, of Novi, is leading her rival Kerry Bentivolio of Milford 52% to 36% in Tuesday’s Republican primary for the 11th Congressional idstrict, even though Bentivolio’s name is the only one on the ballot, a poll conducted for the Free Press, WXYX-TV (Channel 7) and three outstate stations shows.
Cassis was tapped by Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson and other local Republican leaders in June as the best candidate to run a write-in campaign against Bentivolio, a former teacher and reindeer rancher who has never been elected to public office.
Bentivolio got a leg up in the race when the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Livonia, dropped a write-in bid of his own after failing to make the ballot when his campaign submitted fradulent and duplicated signatures in support of his reelection effort.
The poll was done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing last Saturday and Sunday. It surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The thing with polls to remember are these.


1. Polls are at best a snapshot in time of the opinions of a good sample of the electorate. That's if they are done right. Early polls for November, I absolutely discount at this point because things change so often. Primary election polls are another matter.


2. Polls can be wrong, whether it be by sample, weight, or other matters. The rise of cell phones make things tougher, as does Caller ID. 


3. How do you poll a write-in? In most of Oakland County, there are other Republican races with a lot of hype as well. Townships, US Senate, Judicial. Is congressional at the top of the list? Maybe in Novi.


It'll be interesting to see what happens.

The latest chapter in the continuing misadventures of MI-11

There was talk about a special election not happening if only one person ran in each party. We all know how that was going to go. Nowhere. We know that because there's open warfare right now between the establishment in Oakland County and Kerry Bentivolio's campaign. Do you really think either of them was going to listen to the other? It's not going to happen. There will be a special election on September 5th.

Here's the latest with the time line.

August 7th - NEW MI-11. August Primary. On the ballot is Kerry Bentivolio for the GOP and a democrat primary between Syed Taj and Bill Roberts. There's a write-in campaign for Nancy Cassis.

September 5th - OLD MI-11 with the following candidates if their signatures are valid and accepted.
Dems:
David Curson. He wins and will be on the November ballot. He's from Belleville or Van Buren Twp.
GOP:
Kerry Bentivolio - The frontrunner for the new district.
Nancy Cassis - She's on the ballot this time.
Carolyn Kavanagh - Daughter of judge Sean Kavanagh. Lives in Livonia.
Kenneth Crider - Lives in Livonia, don't know anything about him.
Steve King - A RINO. Steve King ran as a democrat against John Walsh in 2008. He now calls himself a Milliken type. That's all I need to know. Bill Milliken sucked as governor and gave us the single business tax, as well as supported tax funded abortions. He also supported far leftists John Kerry, Granholm, and Obama. I'd vote Granholm over Milliken if I had to pick one with a gun to my head. King's a good musician, but at least run as a dem if that's what you are.

November 6th - Both the regular and special elections.
Regular election - NEW district - Will be between the winner of the primary between Taj and Roberts for the dems, and Bentivolio or write-in candidate for the GOP
Special Election - OLD district - Will be between David Curson and the GOP winner.

It is possible that we could have a two month congressman.

And all this could have been avoided if Thad McCotter, A - Got his signatures done properly, or B - served out his term without resigning.

McCotter resigns, MI-11 even more of a clustermuck

I would have posted this earlier, but July's my busiest month of the year during election season. This is unbelievable. As most know Thad McCotter resigned early. It caused Michigan even more of a mess. McCotter's early resignation got us stuck with a $650,000 bill. I wondered why there was even a special primary/general election set up this late in the season, but Michigan law conflicts with the feds here, and the feds win out. Under Michigan Law, elections are held four days a year. February, May, August primary and the November general. I mistakenly assumed that if there was a special, it would be simply a general with the August nominees in November. Well, we know what they say about the word assume. Ass. U. Me. (or to quote from Under Siege 2 - The mother of all F'ups) Wrong.

There's two special elections. The first is the Special Primary in of all times September 5th. The Special General is on the November election. The special election applies to the OLD 11th District, not the new one. So Westland for example will be voting in November for a two month term in the house in the 11th, as well as for the new term in the new district. I rarely agree with Jack Lessenberry, but he said it best.

This election is happening because the governor’s office determined reluctantly that they had to do this. Under our Federal Constitution, if a U.S. Senator resigns from office, the governor gets to appoint a replacement. Not so with House members, however. Ten years ago, an Ohio representative was expelled from Congress later in July, and the governor declined to hold an expensive election to replace him. The federal courts swiftly ruled that Ohio’s governor had violated the law. So Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, in charge while the governor is on vacation, decided Michigan had no choice. That’s sensible, but the requirement is crazy, true, if the same person wins the special election and the general, they will have a slight advantage in seniority, though hardly enough to matter.

I understand why Calley as Lt Governor called it. He wasn't happy about it, but he didn't want this in court. I think all the polls as well as the taxpayers would rather have this vacant, but it's not worth going to court over. I wish McCotter just stayed on till his term is up. I don't think in my 11 years of partisan political activity that I've ever seen anything remotely like the situation here in the 11th District. I feel bad for the non political staffers who had nothing to do with this, and are likely out of a job due to the work of some on the campaign staff. Here's a basic timeline for MI-11.

Present - Absentees are now out for the August Primary. Candidates are gathering signatures for the September Special Primary in the OLD 11th District.

August 7th - Normal August Primary. Kerry Bentivolio is on the ballot. Nancy Cassis is running as a write-in after McCotter was booted off the ballot for signature problems (to say the least). This is for the NEW 11th District.

September 5th - Special Primary. Candidates are gathering signatures for this primary. Both Bentivolio and Cassis are gathering signatures. I'm not sure the dems are trying for this. Those on the ballot will be the nominee for the special general election which covers the remaining portion of McCotter's term. This is in the OLD district.

 November 6th - General AND Special General. There will be TWO elections for the 11th District in this seat. The Special General is in the OLD 11th and will be for the two months of lame duck in the old McCotter term. The Regular General will cover the NEW 11th and will be the winners of the August Primary.

It is possible that Nancy Cassis becomes a two month Congresswoman. In fact, that wouldn't be all that shocking. It's also possible that Bentivolio wins both. I hope that does happen, because it would make a smoother transition. It's also possible that Glenn Anderson if he so chooses, could run for the special 11th (He lives in the district), win it (the old 11th is much more dem), and then if he upsets John Conyers in the primary, becomes the congressman in the 13th district. Once again, MI-11 is showing itself to be a major 2012 Cluster(m)uck with a capital F.

Ballot updates - Cassis is in as write-in, others off ballot

There's been updates on who is on the ballot.  From the Free Press

McCotter wasn't the only candidate with insufficient petition signatures. Also kept off ballots by the state Board of Canvassers on Wednesday were: U.S. Senate candidate Peter Konetchy, a Roscommon Republican; 7th Congressional District candidate Michael Stahly, a Potterville Republican, and 8th Congressional District candidate Michael Magdich, a Democrat from Whitmore Lake.

I'm sad to see Konetchy out. While I keep my blog and my business interests largely separate, Peter was one of my clients. He's a good guy and focused heavily on the constitution, limited government, and budgetary concerns. Unfortunately it was a skeleton crew campaign and there's only so much a few people can do. I haven't completely decided who I'm backing with him out, although I will not be supporting Gary Glenn at all. I won't go into the details, except to say that I'm not impressed with some of the behind the scenes campaign tactics used by some of his major pushers. This goes long before the past week. It's not about conservative views in this case, but tactics.

Magdich is out. That means there is only one guy running on the democrat side for the 8th district. Lance Enderle in a rematch. Lance will have more time to campaign this time. 

There's also a coronation attempt from 11 "leaders" in the 11th District. Also from The Free Press

Former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, a Novi Republican, is the consensus candidate among a group of 11 GOP leaders in Oakland and Wayne counties to run a write-in 11th district congressional campaign in wake of the botched effort to put U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter on the ballot.

Nothing against Cassis, but I hope no party resources are used by committees controlled by those leaders. If individuals are supporting Cassis, that's fine, but party resources should not be used in the primary. I think there's a very good chance that our nominee in the 11th district will be Kerry Bentivolio, if for no other reason, his name being on the ballot, and Cassis running as a write-in. Party resources should stay neutral in the primary, and be ready to go in the general for whoever the nominee is, be it Bentivolio or Cassis. It's going to take at least 25,000 write-ins just to be remotely considered, and I suspect the number to be closer to 40,000. If Cassis can get that, without official party resources, then I'll be impressed and she's earned it. She'll have to work 3-4 times as hard as Bentivolio to have a chance. 

Bentivolio's weakness is money. He doesn't have a lot and won't be getting much, since I think Oakland GOP is unofficially going to be pushing the money to Cassis. Brooks Patterson's comments made it clear. There's a way around that, although it's not an easy one. Bentivolio needs to get primary voter lists, and start hitting doors, doors, and doors. Joe Hune style. While I think Bentivolio is favored to win, he can't take this for granted either. Control what can be controlled and work from there.

McCotter is out

It's really too bad that the electoral career (for now) at least of a good guy ends due to a major blunder like this. Thad McCotter releases his statement.

U.S. Rep.’s Sole Focus Is Finishing His Term and Aiding His Requested Attorney General Probe

“I have ended my write-in campaign in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District,” announced McCotter.

“One can’t clean up a mess multitasking. Honoring my promise to the sovereign people of our community only allows me to finish the official duties of my present Congressional term; and aid the State Attorney General criminal investigation that I requested into identifying the person or persons who concocted the fraudulent petitions that have cost me so dearly.

“Honoring this promise does not allow me to continue a political write-in campaign. This decision is final, regardless of how swiftly the investigation is concluded.”

“To those who unhappy at this news, I’m sorry; to those happy at this news, you’re welcome,” McCotter concluded.

I think it's time for us to now get behind a candidate, and for the party apparatuses to stay neutral. That candidate is Kerry Bentivolio. Bentivolio got the signatures to be on the ballot. Write-in campaigns for congress rarely succeed. Bentivolio is the very likely nominee. Many pundits are thinking that someone else wouldn't likely win as a write-in, but keep in mind that it takes at least 25-30K write-ins just to have a ghost of a chance. At minimum, if you want to back someone as a write-in, don't damage Bentivolio to where the dems have a good shot to win.  

 

McCotter didn't make the ballot - running as write in

The speculation is confirmed in MI-11. McCotter said so himself. From the Detroit News

Having promised people I would seek another term in the United States Congress and, thereby, give them the chance to vote for or against me, the only way to clean up my mess is to run a write-in campaign for the Republican nomination for Michigan's 11th Congressional District. This I'm doing.

I have no problem with this if it is McCotter's campaign resources solely going to this. If party money jumps in, then I have a problem due to bad tactics. McCotter wants to clean up his mess, as he says. Let him and his campaign clean up their mess for the primary. The party itself needs to wait and help the general election nominee.

Keep in mind that in Michigan, stickers aren't allowed. If I was an MI-11 resident and wanted to vote for McCotter, I'd have to write Thad McCotter's name on the ballot in the Republican column. That is after all the other election races like County Commission, US Senate, and State Rep. It's a lot more convenient and easier to simply fill in the circle or draw the arrow next to the name already there.

With the grumbling right now out of Oakland County especially, I'm not sure there's not going to be other candidates. Rocky Raczkowski's endorsed David Trott already. Kowall might want to jump back in too. I think this race is now Bentivolio's to lose. When a quitter, albeit in a different district, gets 22,000 votes, what's an actual candidate going to get, even if he's not that well known. Now McCotter's not Lance Enderle, but Bentivolio's not a quitter either. If McCotter wins the write-in race, he's earned it and made up for the campaign blunder. In a big way.

If I'm Bentivolio, I'm looking to shore up my biggest weakness. Fundraising. I'd also be hitting as many doors as possible and trying to win this campaign the Joe Hune way.

Don't compound a tactical error

I'm writing this based on the assumption that McCotter won't be on the August primary ballot. If there are enough signatures, then this is a moot point. As it looks based on speculation, the only name on the ballot for the republicans in the 11th District (MI-11) is Kerry Bentivolio

Assuming McCotter is gone, there's been a lot of push for write-ins. I think it's a bad move for a party to make here. By party, I am referring to NRCC, RNC, MIGOP, 11th District Committee, Oakland County Republican Party, and the Oakland County Republican Clubs. If McCotter campaign wants to go for a write-in fine. If Trott on his own wants to go for it, fine. If Kowall wants to go for it on his own, fine. That's their right as candidates. If individuals want to help them, fine.

If party wants to jump in and use party resources, then I have a problem. I do not see much good from a Republican Party operation jumping into a primary chasing a Hail Mary Pass that is likely unable to succeed. Even if it does succeed, it will create more bad blood between establishment and tea party that is not needed. If you want already sore tea parties to hold their nose and vote for their least favorite candidate running, don't piss them off even further. Stay out, and let the best candidate win.

I'm going to argue this from a nuts and bolts pragmatic perspective.

From a logistics standpoint, we had a somewhat similar situation in the 8th District on the democrat side in 2010. Kande Whatshisnamethequitter was running for the democrats to take on Mike Rogers. Sometime before the primary and after the filing deadline, he quit. Lance Enderle ran as a write in against the quitter.  Lance lost to the quitter in the primary. He did get 1703 votes, which isn't bad for a write-in. He eventually got on the ballot because Kande Whatshisname went back to the Philly suburbs. However, the quitter still got 23,228 votes. Granted Lance Enderle had little time for a campaign, but could even Dianne Byrum, Virg Bernero, David Hollister, or Gretchen Whitmer get 23,229 write-in votes? Maybe, but I'd be surprised. Personally, I thought it was impressive that Enderle got almost 10%.

If a quitter can get 23,228 votes in a primary by just having his name on the ballot, what does that say about Kerry Bentivolio's chances in the primary? Bentivolio is a stronger candidate than the quitter, and beat four other candidates in his 2010 race, although not Kowall. Bentivolio's not going to quit. He doesn't have a lot of money, but has some networks with Republican Liberty Caucus (I met him there back in 2010), some tea party groups, and Campaign for Liberty. He's a teacher and a military veteran of Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq. He'll get votes for that, along with the normal vote for whoever is on the ballot unopposed that many candidates get in primaries.

Can Trott get 25,000 write-in votes? I highly doubt it. Can McCotter or Kowall do it? Possible, but I still doubt it. In Michigan, you can't place stickers on the write in space for write ins. You have to spell out the name. McCotter isn't as tough of name to spell out as Rostenkowski, but you have to convince enough primary voters, after this blunder of epic proportions, to go into the booth, and spell out this name when there are other elections on the ballot. Even if one of them get 25,000 votes, it probably still won't be enough. That's just the minimum to have any chance.


In short, there's a very good chance if the parties get involved in this primary for write-ins, that the nominee from the 11th district will be.....Kerry Bentivolio - as it would likely be if the parties stayed out. Frankly, we can do a lot worse than that. I think he'll vote similar to Justin Amash. However, if Bentivolio wins, he'll need a lot of help raising money. That's the biggest reason why the party needs to stay out of the primary. The money spent in the primary needs to be spent in the general. Do you want Bentivolio in there, or Bill Roberts? I guarantee this much. Bentivolio won't back Pelosi as speaker or Conyers as judiciary chair.

MI-11 - Fubar

I'm absolutely stunned at this.A MIRS report's been circulated just about everywhere. MIRS is a good source too, so this isn't looking good at all. McCotter may be ousted from Congress without even an election.

MIRS Breaking News - Movement Within GOP For Trott If McCotter Bounced From Ballot -- 8:48 p.m.

Friday, May 25, 2012

Republican sources tell MIRS tonight that there is growing movement within the Republican Party to recruit Attorney David TROTT, a Bingham Farms attorney, to run in the 11th Congressional District as a write-in if U.S. Rep. Thad McCOTTER (R-Livonia) is unable to make the ballot.

Trott is the co-founder and president of Bingham Farms-based Trott & Trott, one of the nation's largest law firms handling residential default procedures.

Trott, a long-time party activist, had flirted with running for Michigan Republican Party state chair in 2004.

While there is no official word on whether Trott or anyone else would be interested, Republicans have actively searched for candidates after noon today since they were first alerted that McCotter had "woefully fewer" than the 1,000 valid signatures needed to make the ballot.

McCotter turned in 2000 signatures according to the Secretary of State's office. Assuming that's true, how in the hell did 1001 of them get fubared?  How? If this is remotely true, I'm flabbergasted. This is after redistricting and other possible candidates gave him a huge gift. Peters is running against Clarke and Lawrence. Marty Knollenberg long said he wasn't going to run if McCotter did, and is running for Oakland Treasurer. Mike Kowall was going to run and backed out. Kowall especially has to be kicking himself.


The question is now what. Either McCotter survives the petition challenges, or he's gone. If he's in, he's the favorite to win. If he's disqualified, then it's going to be real interesting. What happens is this:

On the dems side, there's a race between Bill Roberts (D-Redford) and Syed Taj (D-Canton).


On the GOP side, Kerry Bentivolio, assuming his signatures clear, will be the frontrunner if McCotter is not on the ballot. McCotter could run as a write-in, as could Trott. In order for Trott or McCotter or anyone else to be the nominee, he'd have to beat whoever is on the ballot. Like Bentivolio. While that could and in fact sometimes DOES happen, it's rare in a congressional district. It's rare even in a township. People would have to write in Trott or McCotter in not just Bloomfields and Livonia, but everywhere else.


I think the Republican establishment here may need to swallow some pride and save its resources to help Bentivolio if McCotter gets KO'ed at the signature level. McCotter in 2008 got 40,000+ votes while being unopposed. In the primary. Even 20,000 write-ins is a very tough undertaking, even for a guy with the resources Trott or McCotter would have. There's a very good chance that Bentivolio will be the nominee if McCotter loses the petition battle. If that's the case, the establishment needs to ask themselves this. Do they want Speaker Pelosi back or not? Bentivolio is a strong tea party candidate and a bit of a libertarian republican. I think he'd be similar to Justin Amash in his views and voting. Instead of floating Trott, they should be grateful that someone bailed out the party if McCotter's out. We can do a lot worse than Bentivolio, like Bill Roberts.