Jocelyn Benson for MI-11? She doesn't live there.

The convicted inside trader George Soros pushed the Secretary of State project. Their backed candidate for Secretary of State in 2010 was Jocelyn Benson. Thank God she was defeated by Ruth Johnson and that all those out of state contributors didn't get any return on their investment.

Benson is now considering a congressional run, in the 11th District currently held by Kerry Bentivolio who has a tough primary against David Trott. Whoever wins that primary will be bruised in the battle and will need support. He'd also be 10 times better than Benson, who doesn't even live in the district.

From the Free Press

WASHINGTON — Jocelyn Benson, dean of the law school at Wayne State University and the Democratic Party’s nominee for Michigan Secretary of State in 2010, is eyeing a congressional race in metro Detroit next year.
Benson, 35, is apparently considering a run as a Democrat in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District, currently held by U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, R-Milford, who was elected to his first term last year.
A Democratic source told the Free Press that Benson is looking at entering the race after she met Wednesday with various party bigwigs in Washington, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer and addressed a House Democratic caucus meeting.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Emily’s List — a group that helps elect pro-choice Democratic women candidates — also are believed to be willing to offer support, according to the source who spoke on condition of anonymity because the meetings had not been made widely public.

I checked the campaign finance contributions for Benson. She claims the Detroit Riverfront as her residence. Now while technically you CAN run for federal office outside your district, it still isn't right, especially when your own seat (Peters) is opening up. I live closer to this district than Benson. At least my relatively small township borders the district with Lyon Township. As large as Detroit is, it doesn't touch the 11th. It borders the 9th (Macomb) and 12th (Dearborn) along with the two districts (13th/14th) within the city.It's about 12 miles from Livonia Border to downtown (not quite the riverfront, but relatively close). It's about 12 miles from Birmingham or Clawson to downtown. This isn't just an across the street type of move. It's a two districts away carpetbagging.

I'm sure places like South Lyon, Milford, and Highland would absolutely love a City of Detroit Soros backed professor representing them. Or Livonia and Birmingham for that matter.

She needs to get sent back to Wayne State.

Primaries, Tea parties, establishments, Obamacare, and the Icaucus poll

There's a lot of talk right now about primaries and potential primaries.

My view is that primaries (which should be closed) aren't a bad thing if done right. It demonstrates that candidate x is the choice of Republicans (or Democrats in their primary) to be their nominee in the November election. It gives people a choice. The establishment is not entitled to the nomination solely due to incumbency. The tea party does not necessary deserve the seat either because they are "the true conservative". That's why we have primaries. Candidates - on all sides - need to earn nomination. 

Former State Rep Leon Drolet is expecting to challenge incumbent State Senator Torry Rocca in the 10th District (SD-10)

Anti-tax activist Leon Drolet sounds ready to take on Republican Sen. Tory Rocca of Sterling Heights, who is part of the Lansing Gang of Eight. Rocca’s surprising pro-Medicaid vote came on the heels of a vote against right-to-work legislation last December.
As only Drolet can do, the former state representative tried to fireproof himself while throwing gasoline on the blaze.
He told the Lansing-based Gongwer news service that, if he challenges Rocca, Macomb County Republicans will have a choice to make: “Would they rather be represented by a principled gay conservative or by a big government RINO who, frankly, screws them more than anybody else. If the focus of that primary becomes who’s screwing who, one thing has become exceptionally clear: Tory Rocca screws Republican primary voters.”

That's a tough labor friendly district, although with Roseville out, a much easier district to hold. 

In other primary news that surprised few people, David Trott is challenging incumbent Kerry Bentivolio. Bentivolio From Crain's

David Trott, chairman and CEO of Farmington Hills-based Trott & Trott PC who also owns Attorneys Title Agency LLC and co-owns Dietz Trott Sports & Entertainment, announced today he is a candidate to replace U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in Michigan's 11th congressional district.
Trott, a Republican, will likely appear on the Aug. 5, 2014, Republican primary ballot as a candidate against Bentivolio, who lost a partial term election last November to Democrat David Curson, but won a separate election to a full two-year term in the seat for southwestern Oakland County and northwestern Wayne County.
Bentivolio is expected to seek a second term in November 2014, but Bentivolio communications director Matt Chisholm could not be immediately reached for comment.
Campaign co-chairs for Trott will be former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop, Wayne County Commissioner Laura Cox, Former Congressional candidate Rocky Raczkowski, and Ronna Romney McDaniel.

Bentivolio won due to McCotter not making the ballot. However, Bentivolio is stronger now as an incumbent. I don't think this is going to be a shoo-in for Trott or anybody. I know Trott is well known among Oakland County's party leadership, but he's not that well known with voters, at least yet. I also expect a heavy tea party vs establishment battle there.

As far as gubernatorial primaries go, here's the latest from Icaucus Michigan

Survey Reveals Snyder and Calley Vulnerable to August 2014 Ouster

CEDAR SPRINGS – A statewide survey conducted in Michigan last week shows Governor Rick Snyder to be “clearly vulnerable” and Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley to be “likely vulnerable” to being removed from the 2014 Michigan Republican ticket instead of re-nomination for a second term, according to Kevin Heine, Chief Strategist for iCaucus Michigan.  This survey was paid for by iCaucus (a private, non-profit corporation headquartered in Cheyenne, Wyoming), and is not associated with any sitting elected official, any known or potential candidate for the 2014 election cycle, or any political party.

The survey sample consisted of 744 republican convention delegates and alternates, and was drawn from the master delegation lists for the last three Michigan Republican Party state conventions (May 2012, September 2012, and February 2013).  This is the same delegation pool that elected Dave Agema as National Committeeman by a 7-to-3 margin, but also reelected Bobby Schostak as State Chairman (though by the much smaller margin of 3.86%).  The survey was conducted during the timeframe of August 26^th thru 30^th, used email-link polling, and has a margin of error of ±4.08% at the 95% confidence level.  (The survey sample includes 29 respondents from a test run conducted during the previous week.)

I saw the Icaucus poll about whether the Governor Rick Snyder should have a primary challenger or should be replaced in the primary. Two things that should be taken from any poll. Unnamed always wins. "Generic challenger" is always the non-existent person you think should be the nominee from that party. I never endorse "generic" for that reason and always take the generic candidate with a grain of salt. One sports analyst I read always says the "unknown is undefeated" and that is true for politics as well. The grass is always greener on the other side until it isn't when the "generic" is replaced by a human. All candidates have their flaws.

What I liked from the Icaucus poll is that it actually had some names out there. The pool of voters for this survey were those who attended recent republican state conventions. It's a part of the base. Keep in mind is that this is probably Snyder's low water mark among Republicans over the Medicaid Expansion vote. I expect his numbers to improve some next year.

The results there showed

Snyder Approval - 55.78% - Disapproval - 34.41% - Neither 9.81%

Does Snyder deserve a primary challenger? (Generic question)

Yes - 48.39%, No 38.71% - Unsure - 12.90%

Does Calley deserve a primary challenger? (Generic question)

Yes - 39.65%, No 35.08% - Unsure - 25.27%

As shown here, the generic always wins. The unknown is undefeated. However, the numbers change with real people. 

Snyder vs Agema:
Agema 42.34%, Snyder 32.39% - Unsure - 25.27%

Agema is well known among state convention attendees due to his successful challenge of Saul Anuzis for RNC Committeeman.

Snyder vs Bishop:
Snyder 36.83%, Bishop 24.19% - Unsure 38.98%

Somewhat surprising. I figured Bishop would have stronger numbers.

Snyder vs Butler:
Snyder 38.98%, Butler 11.29% - Unsure 49.73%

Butler ran for Senate in 2006. Among tea party activists, he's probably not well known as most got involved around 2009 or 2010.

Snyder vs Betsy DeVos:
Snyder 40.59%, DeVos 18.41% - Unsure 40.99%

Tea party probably views DeVos as establishment.

Snyder vs Glenn
Snyder 39.11%, Glenn 30.78% - Unsure 30.11%

Glenn is a good organizer, but he's also ticked off a lot of people over MI4CS and the senate campaign.

Snyder vs Hoekstra
Snyder 47.04%, Hoekstra 21.77% - Unsure 31.18%

Not surprised after 2012.

Snyder vs Schuette
Schuette 39.44%, Snyder 31.85% - Unsure 29.70%

Not surprised here, although I figured Schuette would poll best instead of Agema.

What this shows is that there's a lot of grumbling, but on the same note, the base (meaning both establishment, tea party, and regular old conservatives) isn't going to push for just anybody to be a challenger. Despite the current environment and current noise, a good 40% or so are going to stay with Snyder period as things stand now unless Agema or Schuette run. Both of them have won conventions there in the past. I can't see Schuette challenging Snyder at all. Agema is popular from his run for RNC Committeeman. Third closest here was Gary Glenn who is a good organizer whose campaign people (MI4CS, etc) have more influence than I'd like at these conventions. I'm pretty sure Glenn's running for state rep instead in Midland. Snyder's best showing was against Hoekstra, and I bet 95% of that was due to the 2012 campaign. That was reassuring because it shows that campaign ability matters to convention attendees.

If asked whether I am open to voting for a primary challenger to Snyder (or anyone else), my answer is as follows. "Depends on the candidate." My criteria is as follows.

1. Candidate must be electable in the general election. I'm well aware of Mark Schauer's record over the last 15 years. I'll say it very eloquently. Schauer's record absolutely sucks. He does what leadership tells him to do. Most democrats do what they are told, and Schauer does that even more than most.

Electable does not necessarily mean "moderate" (often confused with demeanor)  as ideology is only one aspect - and I think a relatively small one - in general electability. I've seen far right and far left candidates both very electable - and very unelectable. The same goes for moderates, some of whom are awful candidates. Nothing personal against moderate-conservative Pete Hoekstra whom I personally like, but he was as electable as Sharron Angle (lost due to mouth) who has every bad stereotype one has about tea party. I determine electability through demeanor, work ethic, ability to raise money, ability to avoid foot in mouth disease, and elective history. Some of the names in that list are electable and some are not.

2. The candidate must have a plan and be able to adjust. "I'm the true conservative" won't get my vote in and of itself. Mouths are cheap, and I'm tired of them.

3. Must have a strong work ethic. If you are going to primary Snyder, you better have an insane campaign work ethic - because you'll have to finish the job against Mark Schauer. You'll need a Joe Hune 2002 or 2010 level of work ethic. If you're not willing to do that, don't bother as you're wasting everyone's time, not to mention unelectable.

Many are irked about Medicaid expansion and Obamacare as the reason for primaries. People are looking for someone to stand up to Obamacare. There is little that can be done on the state level (nullification is a pipe dream - whether it should be or not, don't count on it) to fight it. That doesn't mean Medicaid Expansion should have passed, but not passing it wasn't going to mean Obamacare wasn't going to have its tentacles affect Michigan as well, jackboot style. 

The best way to get rid of Obamacare is to slay the actual dragon. Obamacare, it's individual mandate, costs, medical device taxes, IRS power expansion, and prison sentences,  all passed due to 59 dem senators, a massive house majority, and Obama. Despite what some say, one branch of the house can not defund Obamacare on its own without a government shutdown. The US House has voted twice to repeal Obamacare. That's what it could do. It hasn't even been taken up for a vote in the Senate. Harry Reid is to blame for that. Michigan needs to do its part by denying Gary Peters a promotion. After that, then give the Peter Principle in Chief an offer he can't refuse.

Ideals are important. Getting them executed and having the ability to do it is more important. These are marathons, not sprints. Four years isn't a long time when it comes to trying to repeal bad laws. It took 8 years to get shall-issue CPL passed in Michigan. The best way to stop Obamacare is to elect a good senator instead of yesman Gary Peters. That's the next head of the dragon that needs to be slain - the senate. In 2016, getting the presidency back is key. Then actually repeal the damn thing.

Congressional District 11 (MI-11) - Updated

Update 2014: This is going to be an ugly race. Bentivolio has a tough primary against Trott. After that, the winner, likely wounded, will be facing a dem. Hopefully the dems all beat the hell out of each other.

MI-11 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 2

Challengers – Dave Trott (R-Birmingham), Anil Kumar (D-Farmington), Bobby McKenzie (D-Canton), Bill Roberts (D-Livonia), Nancy Skinner (D-Birmingham)

2012:

Kerry Bentivolio – 180941 – 50.77%

Syed Taj  – 158101 – 44.36%

22840 vote difference

Romney – 198323 votes – 52.24%

Obama – 177959 votes – 46.87%

20364 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Clawson, Rochester Hills, Northville, West Bloomfield reprecincted)

McCain – 48.35%

Obama –  50.14%

2004: (approx)

Bush – 55.86%

Kerry – 43.19%

Notes – Clawson, Rochester Hills, and West Bloomfield reprecincted which makes this tough to get good numbers. Northville (Wayne County Portion) either reported with the Township or their numbers in 2012 didn’t get posted. Clawson is slightly dem. Rochester Hills is R. The portion of West Bloomfield in this district is competitive compared to the portion in MI-14 that is staunchly democrat. I took a guess on 08 and 04 with those areas, and skipped the Wayne County part of Northville (city) in 2012 assuming it was reported with the township.

This district received a lot of attention in 2012. Thad McCotter, then incumbent ran for president. He then dropped and ran for congress. His campaign staff was caught in a major petition fraud scandal and McCotter resigned and did not run for re-election. The old district elected (on November) democrat David Curson to replace him for a short period. Kerry Bentivolio was the only name on the ballot. He beat write-ins, lost to Curson, and beat Syed Taj. At first, I thought there would be name bias against Taj due to some campaign experiences I’ve had. There wasn’t really. The congressional race generally went similar to the top of the ticket. The old district had some strong democrat areas no longer in the district.  

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

2004

 

Starting at the southwest corner is the Wayne County portion of the map. That big blue spot in the SW is Canton Township (part of it on the map). Canton is becoming a trouble spot for it. It’s been tough for awhile, but it flipped big in 2008 and 2012.  The dems broke 55% here twice after Bush winning it twice. Part of it is the growing (and voting) Indian population, along with some migration from Westland and Ypsi/Ann Arbor. While there’s a lot of money in Canton, there’s also a bit of a populist streak here compared to Northville or Plymouth Twp’s next door. Some work has to be done here so that Canton is not the next Westland when it comes to voting.

Northeast of there is Livonia. Livonia is the largest city in the district and it’s usually consistent. Outside of the bad year of 2008, the Republicans have gotten in the low 50’s in the city rather consistently. It is a little more social conservative than most suburbs in that region, but also a little more populist than next door Plymouth/Northville. It’s largely white ethnic Catholic. Thad McCotter fit the district.

West of there is Plymouth and Northville. The townships are safe republican. Even McCain won them, although Bush got over 60% in Northville Twp. Romney got 58% in Northville Twp and 56% (Bush 57%) in Plymouth Twp. The city of Plymouth swings and votes for both R’s and D’s. Bush won it twice (barely). McCain was crushed. Romney lost it narrowly. I’m not sure how Romney did in the city of Northville on the Wayne County side, but it usually goes R, 2008 notwithstanding. Romney won it with 52% which is a far cry from Bush’s 55%+. That’s due to Canton being the 2^nd to Livonia in population in this district.

North of Livonia is Farmington. Farmington Hills surrounds 90% of Farmington, but is in the 14^th District. Farmington was consistently republicans as recently as 2005 or so. Romney did worse than McCain here by percentage and almost equal in votes. Bush’s 51% is now Romney’s 42.02%. Migration.

North of Northville Twp is Novi and the Oakland part of Northville which is slightly more R than the Wayne County part of Northville (City). Novi is a major danger zone and area of concern right now. If you told me 8 years ago that Obama would win Novi in 2008 and that Romney would get 50% there, I’d laugh in your face. It was 57% in 2004 and was 60%+ not long before that. It was a base city. Now it may become the next Farmington Hills. Migration is part of it, and so is the immigrant Indian population voting heavily democrat.

North of there is Wixom, Walled Lake, and Commerce Township. Commerce Township has stayed solid R. Romney’s 58% was just shy of Bush’s 59%. With West Bloomfield to the East, that’s a township to keep watch on. It hasn’t gone in the direction of Novi or Farmington Hills as least for now. Walled Lake is and was a swing area for a long time. Gore, Bush, Obama, and Romney won it. Wixom moved heavily dem after the Ford plant closed. One precinct is the major problem. It’s full of cheap apartments. A lot of the apartments were rented to commuted auto workers who needed a place to crash. After the plant closed, they all opened up to new residents. These apartments here aren’t exactly high dollar. Romney won three of the four precincts in Wixom, one by nearly 2-1. The largest precinct he lost  1185-378.

North of there is White Lake Twp. It’s safe R, although it dropped below 60% Bush got 61% here to Romney’s 58%. Along the western tier next to Novi, Wixom, Commerce, and White Lake are the most Republican parts of the district. Lyon Township, South Lyon, Milford Twp, and Highland Twp. Those areas aren’t much different than Livingston County in its politics. Those are 60%+ areas usually outside of the City of South Lyon which usually is still 55% or more R.

East of Commerce Twp is West Bloomfield Twp. Most of it, including the areas that make is solidly D, are in the 14^th district. The part here is competitive and sometimes goes R. Romney won the parts here. North of there is competitive Waterford Twp. Bush won it twice, but it wasn’t won easily. It’s historically blue collar white and pro-union. Part of that is still there. There are also some affluent areas in Waterford due to the lakefronts. There’s also some movement from Pontiac also affecting the area. Romney won it, but barely broke 50%. Bush did much better here in 04, although he struggled in 2000 here.

Lake Angelus next door has only about 250 voters and it’s 80%+R unless you’re McCain. Auburn Hills is another story. It was formerly Republican despite Oakland University until Pontiac moved there. Now it’s 25%+ black and went more dem in 2012 than 2008. Migration. East of Auburn Hills is Rochester Hills. It’s mostly in the 8^th. Part of it is a bridge to Troy. Troy leans R, but not like it was. Bush got 56% there. Romney got 52%. Troy has a large Indian population. Like Novi, if you told me it would go dem in 2008, I’d laugh in your face. I’m not laughing. Clawson south of Troy is tougher territory. It went for Gore, Bush, and Obama twice. I don’t know a lot of Clawson except driving through it.

Lastly, to the west of Troy is Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills. Birmingham is probably the most socially liberal somewhat republican area in the state. It’s very affluent and well known for its money. Romney did very well here, doing slightly better than Bush in 2004. McCain cratered here. Bloomfield Hills is more conservative, and was Romney’s best area outside of Sylvan Lake. He got 66%, running ahead of Bush here as well. When you hear about “moderate Oakland County”, this is the area that is usually described.

Overall, this is a district to watch. Can Republicans stop the bleeding here in Canton, Novi, and Troy? That’s a must, if Republicans are going to be competitive in the state, and it’s a must if this district wants to avoid hitting another Gary Peters type in 2008. Commerce Twp is also one to watch just due to geography, as is Livonia (East side in particular).

Another thing to watch here is a possible primary. There is a strong R bench in this district, and Bentivolio was not expected to be a congressman. He had the guts and good fortune to get his petitions in and have his name on the ballot in the primary. When McCotter was knocked out,  he was it, and he won in the general against a weak opponent. Will one of the Oakland Establishment run? If there’s a nasty primary, will the other side vote for the losing candidate or skip the race? This is going to be a real interesting district to watch in 2016.

MI-11:	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Oakland County
Auburn Hills	3776	5608	9512	-1832	39.70%	58.96%
Birmingham	7136	5826	13035	1310	54.74%	44.70%
Bloomfield Hills	1843	916	2767	927	66.61%	33.10%
Clawson 2	508	692	1220	-184	41.64%	56.72%
Clawson 3	572	617	1207	-45	47.39%	51.12%
Clawson 4	496	537	1059	-41	46.84%	50.71%
Clawson 5	724	786	1533	-62	47.23%	51.27%
Commerce Twp	12596	8673	21487	3923	58.62%	40.36%
Farmington	2471	3370	5881	-899	42.02%	57.30%
Highland Twp	6307	3847	10292	2460	61.28%	37.38%
Lake Angelus	216	38	256	178	84.38%	14.84%
Lyon Twp	5067	3025	8152	2042	62.16%	37.11%
Milford Twp	5673	3569	9317	2104	60.89%	38.31%
Northville	1203	927	2156	276	55.80%	43.00%
Novi	14714	14110	29074	604	50.61%	48.53%
Novi Twp	55	46	101	9	54.46%	45.54%
Rochester Hills 1-6	784	689	1493	95	52.51%	46.15%
RH 3-3	492	454	957	38	51.41%	47.44%
RH 3-13	552	432	992	120	55.65%	43.55%
South Lyon	3258	2427	5729	831	56.87%	42.36%
Troy	22316	19915	42588	2401	52.40%	46.76%
Walled Lake	1680	1638	3365	42	49.93%	48.68%
Waterford Twp	17896	17299	35645	597	50.21%	48.53%
West Bloomfield Twp 2	809	777	1605	32	50.40%	48.41%
WB 4	836	805	1656	31	50.48%	48.61%
WB 5	797	791	1602	6	49.75%	49.38%
WB 8	1036	805	1852	231	55.94%	43.47%
WB 14	612	555	1178	57	51.95%	47.11%
WB 25	845	753	1617	92	52.26%	46.57%
White Lake Twp	9168	6406	15753	2762	58.20%	40.67%
Wixom	3217	3229	6499	-12	49.50%	49.68%
Total	127655	109562	239580	18093	53.28%	45.73%
Wayne County
Canton Twp	19912	25021	45268	-5109	43.99%	55.27%
Livonia	28608	26229	55274	2379	51.76%	47.45%
Northville				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Northville Twp	10085	7094	17248	2991	58.47%	41.13%
Plymouth	2506	2689	5239	-183	47.83%	51.33%
Plymouth Twp	9557	7364	17041	2193	56.08%	43.21%
Total	70668	68397	140070	2271	50.45%	48.83%
Total All	198323	177959	379650	20364	52.24%	46.87%

MI-11 still a cluster by electing two congressmen

The 11th district elected two congressmen last Tuesday. I thought this could happen, because of differences in the new and old districts. Thank you McCotter campaign staffers.

I've heard conflicting things about the special election in the 11th. The AP called it at first for Bentivolio. I saw three sources now that called it for David Curson, so I think that's the correct call now. That's the Secretary of State's call as well.

Old 11th:
David Curson  - 159,267
Kerry Bentivolio - 151,740
Third Parties - 18,139

New 11th
Kerry Bentivolio - 181,796
Syed Taj - 158,889
Third Parties - About 18,000

Thanks to McCotter and his campaign staff, we have a two month period of a dem in a lame duck session with major fiscal discussions. Thanks, man.

This still isn't over. Besides the court cases, there may be a nasty primary here in 2014. What Bentivolio needs to do starting in January is to work the district hard. People first and foremost want competence here with the district related issues that don't get the press. Constituent relations is key. If Bentivolio shores that up, thinks before he speaks and doesn't do a Todd Akin, and works hard, he can survive a primary/general in 2014.



 

MI-11 Special election - Bentivolio wins a close race

Based on what I see - I THINK Bentivolio is going to win the special election primary.

As of 8:56 Bentivolio is up in Oakland:

Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		51.04%	1,327
Nancy Cassis (REP)		38.15%	992
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.46%	64
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		5.15%	134
Steve King (REP)		2.85%	74
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.35%	9
			2,600

How that's just the Oakland part and I've seen NOTHING at this point from Wayne County. That's 14 precincts reported, and 38 precincts partially reported in Oakland.

Looking at the geography, I have no doubt that Bentilvolio is winning Oakland. Cassis split in Novi and is doing well in the areas of Lyon Township and Commerce Township near Novi. Bentivolio is cleaning up Northern Oakland in a sweep. Most of what is to be reported here is in North Oakland.

I'm blind with Wayne County right now and that's the majority of the district. That's why I can't call it for Bentivolio with any confidence. Kavanagh is from Livonia. Novi borders Northville in Wayne County.

Turnout is about what I expect. Jack and squat. Jack left town. If McCotter's people didn't FUBAR the situation, this special wouldn't have needed to occur.

Update at 9:06

		Percent	Votes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		47.58%	1,944
Nancy Cassis (REP)		41.43%	1,693
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.30%	94
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		5.36%	219
Steve King (REP)		2.94%	120
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.39%	16
			4,086

Change no doubt to a small doubt.

Update 9:29 - Now it's real interesting.
 56 of 85 Precincts Reporting

		Percent	Votes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		44.76%	2,849
Nancy Cassis (REP)		43.14%	2,746
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.56%	163
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		6.06%	386
Steve King (REP)		3.16%	201
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.31%	20
			6,365

Novi is all in though. Commerce (some good Cassis and good Bentivolio areas) still has a lot to report. So does Highland (Bentivolio advantage) and White Lake (probably Bentivolio). I still haven't seen anything in Wayne County.

Update 9:35 - Finally something from Wayne County

Bentivolio is up about  600 votes in early returns in Wayne County. 

Looks good overall for Bentivolio,

Update 9:56 - Everything in Oakland is done outside of three precincts in White Lake.

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 11TH DISTRICT (Vote For 1)	VIEW PRECINCT DETAIL     Vote type summary	Precinct Detail Map
82 of 85 Precincts Reporting
Percent Votes Kerry Bentivolio (REP) 43.76% 3,573 Nancy Cassis (REP) 43.66% 3,565 Kenneth Crider (REP) 2.76% 225 Carolyn Kavanagh (REP) 6.32% 516 Steve King (REP) 3.25% 265 WRITE-IN (REP) 0.26% 21 8,165

This is going to be decided in Wayne County, and I just got some egg on my face from getting cocky after watching 14 precincts in, and underestimating Commerce Township. Nothing new in Wayne County, so it's about a 600 vote lead overall for Bentivolio.

Update 10:12 - Oakland is all reported.

85 of 85 Precincts Reporting

Percent Votes Kerry Bentivolio (REP) 43.79% 3,659 Nancy Cassis (REP) 43.49% 3,634 Kenneth Crider (REP) 2.81% 235 Carolyn Kavanagh (REP) 6.38% 533 Steve King (REP) 3.26% 272 WRITE-IN (REP) 0.26% 22 8,355

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 11TH DISTRICT (Vote For 1)	VIEW PRECINCT DETAIL     Vote type summary	Precinct Detail Map
85 of 85 Precincts Reporting
Percent Votes David A. Curson (DEM) 99.37% 2,693 WRITE-IN (DEM) 0.63% 17 2,710

Turnout was almost nothing.  6.93% Bentivolio was up about 600 in Wayne County last I checked. Wayne County is going to decide this one.

Update 10:29 - This one is PROBABLY over
85% in for Wayne County
Bentivolio - 5359
Cassis - 4131

The rest are back in the pack. Kavanagh, King, Crider, in that order. Curson has 7175 votes in Wayne County on the dem side. 

It's probably safe to call the primary for Bentivolio. With this low of turnout, I don't see Cassis making up 1200 votes with Oakland being nearly tied.

MI-11 - Special Election September 5

I missed most of the convention speeches. I can only take so much "talk" from politicians, even from my own side. Oftentimes the speeches I like aren't as popular as some others. It's the same with debates. Often those I think who won the actual debate lose it in the court of public opinion, or I think both did badly. I saw two speeches. Chris Christie's and Paul Ryan's. I thought both of them were good, Ryan's in particular. Ryan didn't try to be who he wasn't. He is who he is, and that's what he needs to be.

I've heard Romney speak several times in person over the last six years. I've seen him hit it out of the park with a speech, and I've seen him strike out. I don't know what to expect. I've made my decision already. He's not Obama. He'll fire Eric Holder, Janet Napoliantano, Tim Geithner, Kathleen Sebelius, and Arne Duncan. He won't appoint Cass Sunstein clones to SCOTUS.  It doesn't get worse than these clowns. I'd even vote for Rick Snyder over this crew, and it's no secret what my opinion is there.

There's still another election before November. The special primary for the vacant MI-11 is on September 5th, a Wednesday. Normally, elections are only four possible days a year, but there's some federal rules on congressional elections, and Snyder didn't want to end up in court. Therefore, we have a special election for what amounts to a two month term.

This covers the OLD 11th. This does NOT cover the NEW 11th. If you're in part of Clawson, Troy, part of Rochester Hills, Auburn Hills, Northern West Bloomfield, Farmington, Lake Angelus, and the new part of Waterford, this isn't your district. If you are in Westland, Redford, Wayne, Belleville, Van Buren Twp, Garden City, or part of Dearborn Heights, this is still your district for this election which will fill out the rest of McCotter's term.

There's six people running for this two month term.

Kerry Bentilvolio, the winner of the August primary for the NEW district, is one of the four republicans (and 1 RINO) who is running.

Nancy Cassis, who ran as a write-in for the August primary for the new district, is this time listed on the ballot.

Carolyn Kavanagh lives in Livonia. Her dad is a district judge there. If this was a judicial race, my money would be on Kavanagh for that last name alone. It's like the name Ryan, Kelly, or Murphy. It wins. 

Kenneth Crider is in Livonia. I'm unfamiliar with him.

Steve King. He's a RINO. He ran as a democrat against John Walsh in 2008 and now calls himself a Milliken type. Milliken was one of the worst governors we've had including Granholm. King's best known as a local musician who plays in the classic rock band Steve King and the Dittilies. As is often (although not always) the case, good musician, bad politics.

On the democrat side, David Curson from the Belleville area. He's a UAW rep and is unopposed in the primary.

The winner of the Republican and RINO primary will face Curson for the Special General election which is the same day as the normal general election on November 6th. I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that Bentivolio will win on September 5th. His folks need to really GOTV.

Recap of the primary

It was a rough primary overall, at least for me. It wasn't a total loss and some folks I wanted to win, but a lot of the candidates I was supporting lost. Most losses don't bother me that much in primaries. Usually I can easily point to good reasons why the results were the way they were. I wasn't happy with the Genoa Races or Oakland judicial race at all. The best folks didn't win there, and at least in the Genoa case, low turnout absolutely killed us. I wasn't that happy with the treasurer's race either, and low turnout didn't help us at all there either. I'll update the districts periodically now that the results are in.




One thing I noticed is that a lot of votes were absentee. There were 10215 votes in the HD-47 primary. I did some work for Cindy this primary. At least 34% of the vote - going into election day - was absentee. I assume that's across the board and applies to HD-42 as well. I don't have the exact numbers. Turnout was very low despite all the contested races. In my Green Oak polling place, I walked in. There was one person ahead of me and one person in line at the other precinct there. At 11:30 AM, I was number 55. My ballot number was about 259. Cards cast - 311.

The lack of absentee program doomed Clark Durant. Durant peaked late and worked hard at the end in Livingston County, but you have to have the AV program going to have a chance against a name like Hoekstra. I think if all of the turnout was Tuesday with no AV's, Durant may have won. The election started in June however and not August. Hoekstra needs to have the AV program ready to go to have a shot against Stabenow.

Mike Rogers won easily against two unknowns. I didn't see much if any of a campaign from Hetrick or Molnar. Hetrick had some signs in the right of way, but it takes more than that to have a strong campaign that would challenge someone like Mike.

Dale Rogers had a waiver wire campaign against Bill Rogers, but did what he could considering the resources in his campaign. I'll give him credit for hitting doors and also showing up the unity breakfast this morning. He took his lumps like a man, as I had to do in a couple of cases with some of the campaigns I was involved in, and I hope he stays active.  I respect those who run actual campaigns. 

Harold Melton I think underestimated Cindy Denby due to her low key demeanor. There's a difference between being low key and weak. Cindy's a very strong incumbent especially due to the constituent relations in that office. If you're going to challenge Cindy, you better be prepared or you'll be overwhelmed, and not even by the campaign resources. Personally, I wish Harold ran for township board in Howell Twp.

Prosecutor was close as expected. Bill Vailliencourt won narrowly over Carolyn Henry. Lyle Dickson had more votes than the difference between the two, and I wonder who would have otherwise receive those votes.

Sheriff wasn't close. Tom Ash defeated Tom Ash. Bob Bezotte won easily, and I think Ash's speech at the Brighton Tea Party, the 11th hour complaint from Alex Duncan (who lost his race in Marion Twp) claiming he got an ass whooping in 1985 as a kid (I later found out Bezotte was out of town that day) and claiming he mentioned it as not politics, and the Dukes of Hazzard stunt by Mike Moorman all cost him.

Margaret Dunleavy won easily as expected. That's a well run office and she does a good job.

I was surprised at the treasurer's race. Brian Wutz ran what I thought was a good campaign and a much more active one. Nash was an appointed incumbent who had much of the established elected officials/commissioners backing but was running an essentially status quo campaign. I thought it was going to be close, and it was a 62-38 loss. It was closer all other countywide incumbent challenges, but it still wasn't close. I hope Brian stays active. He's a good guy who adds a lot to the party.

I was surprised at the margin in the Register of Deeds race, although I'm not surprised Sally Reynolds won. Sally's an underrated campaigner who works despite limited campaign budgets. She was hitting a lot of doors. Carole Bullion was a stronger challenger than her results would indicate. Both are good people and I hope Carole stays active. I hope Carole runs again when the seat opens up.

There are two commissioners who lost re-election. Three were vulnerable. Two are gone. Ron Van Houten survived against Bill Call. Van Houten's a good guy. I don't know Bill Call except that he is or was part of the school board. I was a little surprised Van Houten won because of Call's strength in Fowlerville. Jim Mantey lost to Bill Green. I'm not that surprised there. Mantey was a good commissioner. He was not a good campaigner. People didn't know him. I am slightly surprised at my own district. I will have having a new county commissioner. Jack LaBelle is being replaced by Gary Childs. I don't know him. I know that he owns a bike shop and has many ties in South Lyon. Much of Green Oak is closely tied to South Lyon around the Rushton area. I voted for Jack, whom I knew from the board, and he won't be easy to replace.

Incumbents were the winners generally in the township races with few exceptions. I wasn't happy against with Genoa's case. Don't complain when "downtown Genoa" is on the way.  I was happy to see Linda Rowell win, but Spicher and Woodall would have done a real good job there. Green Oak has a new trustee. James Tuthill will be replacing Wally Qualls. I was hoping Mike Z would win in Hamburg.

Ballot Questions:

Passed - Conway Twp Roads, Deerfield Roads, Hartland Fire renewal, Osceola Roads, Fenton Schools Renewal (in county), Fowlerville fire/library,

Failed - Howell Township Sewer (no surprise there - 80-20 margin)



Outside the county, MI-11 wasn't a surprise to me. Bentivolio in Oakland had about 29,000 votes compared to the 13,800 writeins. In Wayne County, Bentivolio had about 13,800 to the 8400 or so write-ins. I estimated that it would take about 25,000 to have a ghost of a chance and about 30,000+ to have a more realistic chance. There were about 22,000 write ins. Most were probably for Cassis. That's damn good, but shows how difficult it is. Interestingly, Bill Roberts the LaRouche guy, only lost Oakland by 2000 against the establishment candidate Syed Taj, Taj did better in Wayne County where he's from, winning by 4000 there. I wonder if the dems are kicking themselves for not running someone stronger like Dian Slavens, Tim Melton, or Mike Duggan.


MI-13 - John Conyers won easily.

MI-14 - Gary Peters is the first whitey in Congress to represent a part of Detroit since either Sander Levin or Curtis Hertel to have part of the city in their district. Hansen Clark won the Wayne County portion of the district 51-33 with others taking the rest. 33% is still good for a white dude in Oakland County who most importantly doesn't live there. Oakland came through big for Peters. Clarke actually got third in Oakland, behind Brenda Lawrence and Peters. Peters won not surprisingly West Bloomfield and Farmington Hills. Somewhat surprisingly, he won Southfield, Oak Park, and Pontiac. Pontiac and Oak Park wern't close. Southfield was close because Lawrence is the mayor there, and Peters still won. Southfield, Oakland, and Pontiac blacks aren't as adverse of voting for white folks. I am surprised Peters won because Detroit still has most of the district.

I'll update the districts when I get a chance to reflect who the nominees are for the fall.

MI-11 - Is this poll legit or does it matter?

I'm still skeptical about this. I think it will take at least 35,000 write-in votes to have a shot. If a quitter in MI-8 got 22,000 votes (in 2010) after announcing he's quitting over a write-in, It would take probably 35K to play ball, and Bentivolio's actually running a campaign. I don't like coronations so I hope Bentivolio wins. I think he'll hang on just because of the difficulty of a write-in election for a large office.

From the Free Press:

WASHINGTON –Winning a write-in campaign for a nomination to Congress is daunting, but former state Sen. Nancy Cassis appears to be heading in the right direction.
Cassis, of Novi, is leading her rival Kerry Bentivolio of Milford 52% to 36% in Tuesday’s Republican primary for the 11th Congressional idstrict, even though Bentivolio’s name is the only one on the ballot, a poll conducted for the Free Press, WXYX-TV (Channel 7) and three outstate stations shows.
Cassis was tapped by Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson and other local Republican leaders in June as the best candidate to run a write-in campaign against Bentivolio, a former teacher and reindeer rancher who has never been elected to public office.
Bentivolio got a leg up in the race when the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Livonia, dropped a write-in bid of his own after failing to make the ballot when his campaign submitted fradulent and duplicated signatures in support of his reelection effort.
The poll was done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing last Saturday and Sunday. It surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The thing with polls to remember are these.


1. Polls are at best a snapshot in time of the opinions of a good sample of the electorate. That's if they are done right. Early polls for November, I absolutely discount at this point because things change so often. Primary election polls are another matter.


2. Polls can be wrong, whether it be by sample, weight, or other matters. The rise of cell phones make things tougher, as does Caller ID. 


3. How do you poll a write-in? In most of Oakland County, there are other Republican races with a lot of hype as well. Townships, US Senate, Judicial. Is congressional at the top of the list? Maybe in Novi.


It'll be interesting to see what happens.

The latest chapter in the continuing misadventures of MI-11

There was talk about a special election not happening if only one person ran in each party. We all know how that was going to go. Nowhere. We know that because there's open warfare right now between the establishment in Oakland County and Kerry Bentivolio's campaign. Do you really think either of them was going to listen to the other? It's not going to happen. There will be a special election on September 5th.

Here's the latest with the time line.

August 7th - NEW MI-11. August Primary. On the ballot is Kerry Bentivolio for the GOP and a democrat primary between Syed Taj and Bill Roberts. There's a write-in campaign for Nancy Cassis.

September 5th - OLD MI-11 with the following candidates if their signatures are valid and accepted.
Dems:
David Curson. He wins and will be on the November ballot. He's from Belleville or Van Buren Twp.
GOP:
Kerry Bentivolio - The frontrunner for the new district.
Nancy Cassis - She's on the ballot this time.
Carolyn Kavanagh - Daughter of judge Sean Kavanagh. Lives in Livonia.
Kenneth Crider - Lives in Livonia, don't know anything about him.
Steve King - A RINO. Steve King ran as a democrat against John Walsh in 2008. He now calls himself a Milliken type. That's all I need to know. Bill Milliken sucked as governor and gave us the single business tax, as well as supported tax funded abortions. He also supported far leftists John Kerry, Granholm, and Obama. I'd vote Granholm over Milliken if I had to pick one with a gun to my head. King's a good musician, but at least run as a dem if that's what you are.

November 6th - Both the regular and special elections.
Regular election - NEW district - Will be between the winner of the primary between Taj and Roberts for the dems, and Bentivolio or write-in candidate for the GOP
Special Election - OLD district - Will be between David Curson and the GOP winner.

It is possible that we could have a two month congressman.

And all this could have been avoided if Thad McCotter, A - Got his signatures done properly, or B - served out his term without resigning.

McCotter resigns, MI-11 even more of a clustermuck

I would have posted this earlier, but July's my busiest month of the year during election season. This is unbelievable. As most know Thad McCotter resigned early. It caused Michigan even more of a mess. McCotter's early resignation got us stuck with a $650,000 bill. I wondered why there was even a special primary/general election set up this late in the season, but Michigan law conflicts with the feds here, and the feds win out. Under Michigan Law, elections are held four days a year. February, May, August primary and the November general. I mistakenly assumed that if there was a special, it would be simply a general with the August nominees in November. Well, we know what they say about the word assume. Ass. U. Me. (or to quote from Under Siege 2 - The mother of all F'ups) Wrong.

There's two special elections. The first is the Special Primary in of all times September 5th. The Special General is on the November election. The special election applies to the OLD 11th District, not the new one. So Westland for example will be voting in November for a two month term in the house in the 11th, as well as for the new term in the new district. I rarely agree with Jack Lessenberry, but he said it best.

This election is happening because the governor’s office determined reluctantly that they had to do this. Under our Federal Constitution, if a U.S. Senator resigns from office, the governor gets to appoint a replacement. Not so with House members, however. Ten years ago, an Ohio representative was expelled from Congress later in July, and the governor declined to hold an expensive election to replace him. The federal courts swiftly ruled that Ohio’s governor had violated the law. So Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, in charge while the governor is on vacation, decided Michigan had no choice. That’s sensible, but the requirement is crazy, true, if the same person wins the special election and the general, they will have a slight advantage in seniority, though hardly enough to matter.

I understand why Calley as Lt Governor called it. He wasn't happy about it, but he didn't want this in court. I think all the polls as well as the taxpayers would rather have this vacant, but it's not worth going to court over. I wish McCotter just stayed on till his term is up. I don't think in my 11 years of partisan political activity that I've ever seen anything remotely like the situation here in the 11th District. I feel bad for the non political staffers who had nothing to do with this, and are likely out of a job due to the work of some on the campaign staff. Here's a basic timeline for MI-11.

Present - Absentees are now out for the August Primary. Candidates are gathering signatures for the September Special Primary in the OLD 11th District.

August 7th - Normal August Primary. Kerry Bentivolio is on the ballot. Nancy Cassis is running as a write-in after McCotter was booted off the ballot for signature problems (to say the least). This is for the NEW 11th District.

September 5th - Special Primary. Candidates are gathering signatures for this primary. Both Bentivolio and Cassis are gathering signatures. I'm not sure the dems are trying for this. Those on the ballot will be the nominee for the special general election which covers the remaining portion of McCotter's term. This is in the OLD district.

 November 6th - General AND Special General. There will be TWO elections for the 11th District in this seat. The Special General is in the OLD 11th and will be for the two months of lame duck in the old McCotter term. The Regular General will cover the NEW 11th and will be the winners of the August Primary.

It is possible that Nancy Cassis becomes a two month Congresswoman. In fact, that wouldn't be all that shocking. It's also possible that Bentivolio wins both. I hope that does happen, because it would make a smoother transition. It's also possible that Glenn Anderson if he so chooses, could run for the special 11th (He lives in the district), win it (the old 11th is much more dem), and then if he upsets John Conyers in the primary, becomes the congressman in the 13th district. Once again, MI-11 is showing itself to be a major 2012 Cluster(m)uck with a capital F.