MI-12 - Dingell Retiring

From WDIV

DETROIT - Michigan Rep. John Dingell, the longest-serving congressman in U.S. history, will announce his retirement on Monday.
Dingell is expected to formally announce his decision to not seek re-election during a luncheon in Southgate.

The 87-year-old democrat and Dean of the House of Representatives was first elected in 1955, filling the House seat vacated by his late father.
Dingell set the record for the longest-serving member last year when he hit 58 years of service. 

Many are cheering. I'm not. $20 says the replacement will be a lot worse. Dingell was an old school FDR type of labor democrat. I didn't agree with him on much, but at least he was generally (not always) pro-2nd Amendment and supportive of the auto industry. The replacement could very well be coming from the People's Republic of Ann Arbor.

This is a safe district for democrats.  There are several different parts of the district.

Dearborn/Downriver - They aren't exactly the same, but the same type of democrat does well. UAW and steelworker. Moderate on social issues. Populist. That's Dingell's base. About 396,000 people, mostly white ethnic.

Airport area (Partially) - A mix of downriver, government workers (Metro Airport), and a fairly large black population. That's also Dingell's base. Romulus, Wayne, Westland, and Inkster are in Conyers district. Dingell has Van Buren Twp, Belleville, Sumpter, and Huron Township.  About 58,000 in the district.  

Ypsilanti area - Actually more democrat than Ann Arbor. A mix of inner city, college town (EMU), and UAW. Dingell made some strong inroads here when running against Lynn Rivers, especially with the minorities. Ypsilanti (City and Township), Pittsfield Twp east of US-23. SE part of Superior Township (Willow Run). About 98,000 in the district.

Ann Arbor - City College of New York, West. A bit of east coast implanted on the Midwest, without the character. Go MSU. They tolerated Dingell, but he wasn't their favorite due to guns and his support of the automobile industry.  Mostly white with some Asians and a declining black population. Very strong green, gay rights, and feminist streak.  About 150,000.

In the Lynn Rivers vs John Dingell 2002 grudge match, the results were as follows.
Wayne County   - Dingell 31364, Rivers 11203
Monroe County - Dingell 14698, Rivers 3613
Washtenaw County - Dingell 11728, Rivers 26016
Within Washtenaw:
Ann Arbor - Rivers won 80-20
Milan (Walberg's District now) - Rivers won 55-45
Ypsi - Rivers won 63-37 (Dingell won black precincts)
Ann Arbor Twp - Rivers won 68-31
Augusta Twp (Walberg's district now) - Dingell won 55-45
Pittsfield Twp - Rivers won 63-37
Scio Twp - 11 votes for Rivers, 0 for Dingell (most was in Walberg's District then)
Superior Twp - Dingell won 51-49 (Willow Run)
York Twp (Walberg's District now) - Dingell won 57-42
Ypsilanti Twp - Rivers won 50-49

I think one of the reasons Dingell is retiring is due to downriver being back in his district. He's a Dearborn/Downriver guy and wants his replacement to be from there. I think Debbie Dingell may run. Chris Dingell (John's son), a Wayne County Judge was rumored long ago to be the successor intended for this seat. He's in the Trenton area in the district. He could run, but would have to give up a nice spot to do it. I expect either Debbie or Chris Dingell to run, but not both. 

The democrat bench is strong.
Lynn Rivers - Ex Congresscritter. Ann Arbor.
Alma Wheeler Smith - Ypsilanti/Ann Arbor. Ties to both.
Rebekah Warren, Liz Brater, Chris Kolb, - Ann Arbor current/former reps.
John Hiefje - Ann Arbor mayor.
David Rutledge - Ypsi state rep
George Darany, Paul or Ed Clemente, The Kandrevases, Hoon-Yung Hopgood, Ray Basham, - State Reps/Senate from Wayne County.  
The only Republican bench in this district is Pat Somerville, and I doubt he's giving up his far downriver state rep seat for this. Grosse Ile and Huron Township isn't going to carry a congressional district.

Some national folks have mentioned Pam Byrnes and Glenn Anderson. Pam Byrnes is from the Chelsea area. That's about as far from MI-12 than I am even though I'm in a different county. She's not going to carpetbag. Glenn Anderson is from Westland. That's not in the district, and his old territory in the state senate is Redford, Garden City, Westland, and Livonia. NO Chance. Scratch both of those names. They aren't going to be it.

I expect at least one Wayne County and one Washtenaw County candidate to run regardless of the wishes of the establishment in the other community. My guesses (and that's all they are) 

Washtenaw
Alma Wheeler Smith, Liz Brater, and Rebekah Warren in that order.
Wayne:
Debbie Dingell, Chris Dingell, Ray Basham (Former State Senator) in that order. 

Personally, I hope both sides beat the tar out of each other and alienate the other side into staying home in November.

Congressional District 12 (MI-12) - Updated

Update 2014: Dingell's retiring, but his wife's running for his spot and is the frontrunner. Terry Bowman is an interesting candidate here. He's a union member and does not support the leadership at all. He can make inroads with swing voters many other Republicans can't do.

MI-12 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent –Open with John Dingell retiring
Years in office as of 2014 election – 59

Challengers – Terry Bowman (R-Ypsilanti), Stephen Farkas (R-Dearborn), Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), Raymond Mullins (D-Ypsilanti)

2012:

John Dingell – 214011 – 67.99%

Cynthia Kallgren – 90955 – 28.90%

-123056 vote difference

Romney – 105848 votes – 32.68%

Obama – 214411 votes – 66.19%

-108653 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Dearborn Heights reprecincted)

McCain – 107670 votes – 31.24%

Obama –  231218 votes – 67.09%

-123548 vote difference

2004: (approx – D. Hghts and Scio Twp reprecincted)

Bush – 120718 votes – 36.99%

Kerry – 201368 votes – 61.709%

-80650 vote difference

Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. Scio Twp did between 2004 and 2008.

This district is a blue sink that combines Downriver labor democrats with Ann Arbor leftists. It did what it was intended to do and that is to pick up as many democrats as possible.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

 

2004

The Washtenaw County portion is centered on two areas. Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor is best described as an East Coast academia city placed in the Midwest. University of Michigan is considered one of the backup schools on the East Coast for those who don’t go to an Ivy League. One of its nicknames is the City College of New York – West. The politics in A2 are divided between townie democrats which more often tend to be Bill Clinton types, and radical feminists and greens like you’d expect to see get elected in academia. Republicans haven’t been competitive in the city in years. Occasionally in the past they had a council seat or even the mayor spot, but they aren’t even considered anymore as dems win across the board here. It’s 75-25D consistently, and with Obama it’s 80/20. The township is less dem, but still 2-1 and ceased being competitive with the apartments built up on the southern edge of the township. Eastern Scio Twp is basically a western extension of Ann Arbor.

Ypsilanti (usually called Ypsi) is also a college town (EMU), but has a much different history. It was also a GM town.  One of it’s nicknames was Ypsi-tucky due to a large number of Appalachian transplants who worked in the Willow Run auto factory. Willow run closed down, but the union influence here remains. Ypsilanti (both city and township) also has a large black population. Romney absolutely bombed in Ypsi. He did bad in Ann Arbor, but at least improved over McCain. Romney had less votes in Ypsi, and in the township, had a worse percentage. Obama took 83% in the City and 74% in the Township. Superior Township to the north is safe dem because of its portion of Willow Run. Three precincts in its southern end are 69%+, including one that’s 90%+ and black majority. It’s large enough to put the township 60%+ D. Pittsfield Twp is one part Ann Arbor, one part Saline, and one part Ypsi in influence. It’s also safe democrat, with a large Asian (not sure Indian or East Asian or both) population in the portion between Ann Arbor and Saline. The east part of Pittsfield twp is heavily minority and EMU influenced. 

Past the County line is Van Buren Twp. It was somewhat competitive not all that long ago. The Canton/Van Buren state rep seat was ours until 2006. A lot of blacks from Romulus and Inkster (or Ypsi) are moving there. It went 67% for Obama in 08, and 71.93% for Obama in 2012. I think white flight is going on there now. It went from 12 to 28% black, and 25% is the usual “tipping point” in metro Detroit. There was also 5000 less presidential votes overall from 2008 to 2012 (suspicious). Belleville’s much more dem than it was in 2004. 63% for Obama twice, while 56% for Bush.

South of there is Sumpter Twp. It’s been consistently 58-62% dem and hasn’t changed much. East of there is Huron Twp which has moved our way some. Gore won it, then Bush, then Obama, and now Romney. It’s always close. East of Huron Twp is the southern part of Downriver. It’s dem, but sometimes we pick off a state rep district here. Grosse Ile and occasionally Huron Twp carry the district. Grosse Ile is 60%+R. Trenton, Woodhaven, and Gibraltar are narrowly democrat. In a great year or with a great candidate, one can flip them. Unfortunately, Romney was a bad candidate here in particular. He got less votes than McCain in Trenton and Gibraltar. Rockwood, Flat Rock, and Riverview are harder. Strangly shaped Brownstown Township (unincorporated and split in 3 sections) is strongly and stubbornly democrat. The north part of that township might as well be part of Taylor.

Northern Downriver is union country and still retains the traditions. It’s largely white ethnic and Appalachian, although the minority population is slowly increasing, particularly Mexicans in Lincoln Park (borders SW Detroit) and blacks in Taylor. Taylor, Lincoln Park, Southgate, and Wyandotte are all 60%+ dem, and they are getting bluer. Romney was a real bad fit here, and had less votes in all four of those areas than McCain. Obama had a higher 2012 percentage in Taylor, Lincoln Park, and Southgate. Was that due to “Let Detroit go bankrupt?” Probably. North of there is somewhat competitive Allen Park. It’s winnable in a great year. 2012 wasn’t it.

Lastly, Dearborn. Dearborn is and has been usually democrat and the home of Dingell. Bush did win it however in 2000. Then the Iraq War happened. Dearborn is about 40% Middle Eastern (not all Muslim), mostly in the Eastern end. Western Dearborn is largely white ethnic. It’s Ford HQ, and has a mix of union and auto executives. In 2004, Kerry flipped it in a big way getting 58%. McCain and Romney cratered here. Romney did worse than McCain. Obama got 65% in 2008 and 66% in 2012. Obviously a lot work needs to be done.

This district does what it was intended to do. It packs democrats. Rob Steele made a good run at a similar district in 2010, but was unable to counter the traditions. What we need to do here is get the best we can get and try and pick off a state rep district here and there like the far downriver seat in 2010. We need to cut down the margins of dem victory here and make up the ground in other districts. 

MI-12	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Washtenaw County
Ann Arbor	11008	46198	58112	-35190	18.94%	79.50%
Ann Arbor Twp	903	1678	2601	-775	34.72%	64.51%
Pittsfield Twp	5414	10881	16481	-5467	32.85%	66.02%
Scio Twp 3	354	693	1057	-339	33.49%	65.56%
Scio 4	377	720	1101	-343	34.24%	65.40%
Scio 7	505	1254	1779	-749	28.39%	70.49%
Scio 8	579	1056	1650	-477	35.09%	64.00%
Scio 9	386	881	1275	-495	30.27%	69.10%
Superior Twp	2218	4681	6941	-2463	31.96%	67.44%
Ypsilanti	1205	6980	8349	-5775	14.43%	83.60%
Ypsilanti Twp	6264	18915	25478	-12651	24.59%	74.24%
Total	29213	93937	124824	-64724	23.40%	75.26%
Wayne County
Allen Park	6769	8189	15115	-1420	44.78%	54.18%
Belleville	657	1168	1841	-511	35.69%	63.44%
Brownstown Twp	5665	8234	14014	-2569	40.42%	58.76%
Dearborn	12732	26266	39415	-13534	32.30%	66.64%
Dearborn Hghts 24	327	463	797	-136	41.03%	58.09%
DH 25	301	585	895	-284	33.63%	65.36%
DH 26	301	449	763	-148	39.45%	58.85%
DH 27	286	501	796	-215	35.93%	62.94%
DH 911AV	468	542	1021	-74	45.84%	53.09%
Flat Rock	1833	2459	4338	-626	42.25%	56.69%
Gibralter	1121	1233	2387	-112	46.96%	51.65%
Grosse Ile	4311	2597	6937	1714	62.15%	37.44%
Huron Twp	3785	3648	7513	137	50.38%	48.56%
Lincoln Park	4368	9570	14107	-5202	30.96%	67.84%
Riverview	2660	3394	6101	-734	43.60%	55.63%
Rockwood	650	877	1545	-227	42.07%	56.76%
Southgate	5211	8816	14164	-3605	36.79%	62.24%
Sumpter Twp	1751	2498	4297	-747	40.75%	58.13%
Taylor	8607	16143	24999	-7536	34.43%	64.57%
Trenton	4905	5323	10320	-418	47.53%	51.58%
Van Buren Twp	2529	6658	9256	-4129	27.32%	71.93%
Woodhaven	2843	3536	6438	-693	44.16%	54.92%
Wyandotte	4555	7325	12041	-2770	37.83%	60.83%
Total	76635	120474	199100	-43839	38.49%	60.51%
Total	105848	214411	323924	-108563	32.68%	66.19%

Congressional District 12 - Redistricted (MI-12)

Incumbent - John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 57
The old 12th district information is here.
This district is descended from the old 15th district.

Challengers -  Cynthia Kallgren (R-Wyandotte)

Updated 8-30-2012 - Kallgren won her primary. Dingell won his. 

Update 5-16-2012 - This could be interesting to watch. Marcin is a 26 year old East Coast transplant to Ann Arbor where he's a grad student. Ann Arbor (and east coast) dems are a different culture than the Downriver/Dearborn labor democrats which Dingell represents. One of the big clashes is on the auto industry. Jacobsen seems to be giving this a district an actual campaign, much like Dr Rob Steele did in 2010. The problem for Jacobsen is no Monroe County to help if it swings against the dems like it did in 2010. The rest of downriver is tougher territory. Romulus and Inkster are gone though which helps.

Michigan lost a congressional district, so there is no more 15th district. The old 15th district is basically now the 12th. What is mostly the old 12th district is now the 9th. I'm going to analyze this district as it is came from the 15th. This is still John Dingell's district.

This district is similar, although it changed some. It gave up Augusta and York Townships, as well as the City of Milan to Tim Walberg. It picks up 1/2 of Scio Township instead. That's the change in Washtenaw County. Monroe County goes to Walberg. In Wayne county, almost all of downriver goes back to Dingell outside of Melvindale, River Rouge, and Ecorse. He also gets the rest of Dearborn. Romulus and Inkster go to Hansen Clarke. He picks up Van Buren Twp and Belleville from Thad McCotter. This is "new territory" for the district, but not for Dingell who represented downriver for years.  This district is also a lot bluer. Monroe County was a swing area and it's gone. Downriver is mostly democrat, and the added portions to this district like Eastern Dearborn, Lincoln Park and Southgate are blue sinks. The old district had about a 73000 vote spread for Kerry and 115000 for Obama. The new district was about 81000 and 122000. Rob Steele gave Dingell his toughest test in years, but lost his best area and has about a 32000 vote deficit in the new region. I didn't include the small Dearborn Heights portion since about 90% of it is in Clarke's district.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	10712	51587	62299	-40875	17.19%	82.81%	-65.61%
Ann Arbor Twp	829	1836	2665	-1007	31.11%	68.89%	-37.79%
Pittsfield Twp	5042	11342	16384	-6300	30.77%	69.23%	-38.45%
Scio Twp (1/2)	1886	3355	5241	-1469	35.99%	64.01%	-28.03%
Superior Twp	2048	4951	6999	-2903	29.26%	70.74%	-41.48%
Ypsilanti City	1308	7828	9136	-6520	14.32%	85.68%	-71.37%
Ypsilanti Twp	6517	19579	26096	-13062	24.97%	75.03%	-50.05%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park	6941	8705	15646	-1764	44.36%	55.64%	-11.27%
Belleville City	733	1315	2048	-582	35.79%	64.21%	-28.42%
Brownstown Twp	5373	8668	14041	-3295	38.27%	61.73%	-23.47%
Dearborn	13761	27253	41014	-13492	33.55%	66.45%	-32.90%
Flat Rock	1807	2504	4311	-697	41.92%	58.08%	-16.17%
Gibralter	1132	1313	2445	-181	46.30%	53.70%	-7.40%
Grosse Ile	4023	2859	6882	1164	58.46%	41.54%	16.91%
Huron Twp	3669	3852	7521	-183	48.78%	51.22%	-2.43%
Lincoln Park	5080	10848	15928	-5768	31.89%	68.11%	-36.21%
Riverview	2652	3832	6484	-1180	40.90%	59.10%	-18.20%
Rockwood	678	900	1578	-222	42.97%	57.03%	-14.07%
Southgate	5509	9500	15009	-3991	36.70%	63.30%	-26.59%
Sumpter Twp	1696	2961	4657	-1265	36.42%	63.58%	-27.16%
Taylor	9224	17264	26488	-8040	34.82%	65.18%	-30.35%
Trenton	4908	5957	10865	-1049	45.17%	54.83%	-9.65%
Van Buren Twp	4375	9703	14078	-5328	31.08%	68.92%	-37.85%
Woodhaven	2836	3781	6617	-945	42.86%	57.14%	-14.28%
Wyandotte	4822	8200	13022	-3378	37.03%	62.97%	-25.94%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	107561	229893	337454	-122332	31.87%	68.13%	-36.25%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	13153	45117	58270	-31964	22.57%	77.43%	-54.85%
Ann Arbor Twp	1083	1787	2870	-704	37.74%	62.26%	-24.53%
Pittsfield Twp	5839	9271	15110	-3432	38.64%	61.36%	-22.71%
Scio Twp (1/2)	2122	3132	5254	-1010	40.39%	59.61%	-19.22%
Superior Twp	2227	3948	6175	-1721	36.06%	63.94%	-27.87%
Ypsilanti City	1581	6046	7627	-4465	20.73%	79.27%	-58.54%
Ypsilanti Twp	7887	16240	24127	-8353	32.69%	67.31%	-34.62%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park	7738	8575	16313	-837	47.43%	52.57%	-5.13%
Belleville City	856	1131	1987	-275	43.08%	56.92%	-13.84%
Brownstown Twp	5369	6916	12285	-1547	43.70%	56.30%	-12.59%
Dearborn	16686	24456	41142	-7770	40.56%	59.44%	-18.89%
Flat Rock	1917	2233	4150	-316	46.19%	53.81%	-7.61%
Gibralter	1186	1271	2457	-85	48.27%	51.73%	-3.46%
Grosse Ile	4435	2594	7029	1841	63.10%	36.90%	26.19%
Huron Twp	3578	3417	6995	161	51.15%	48.85%	2.30%
Lincoln Park	5843	10921	16764	-5078	34.85%	65.15%	-30.29%
Riverview	3095	3665	6760	-570	45.78%	54.22%	-8.43%
Rockwood	759	948	1707	-189	44.46%	55.54%	-11.07%
Southgate	6048	9046	15094	-2998	40.07%	59.93%	-19.86%
Sumpter Twp	1979	2963	4942	-984	40.04%	59.96%	-19.91%
Taylor	10444	16377	26821	-5933	38.94%	61.06%	-22.12%
Trenton	5495	5778	11273	-283	48.74%	51.26%	-2.51%
Van Buren Twp	4993	7353	12346	-2360	40.44%	59.56%	-19.12%
Woodhaven	3076	3380	6456	-304	47.65%	52.35%	-4.71%
Wyandotte	5451	7935	13386	-2484	40.72%	59.28%	-18.56%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	122840	204500	327340	-81660	37.53%	62.47%	-24.95%
	Steele	Dingell	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	8242	28027	36269	-19785	22.72%	77.28%	-54.55%
Ann Arbor Twp	783	1133	1916	-350	40.87%	59.13%	-18.27%
Pittsfield Twp	4264	5815	10079	-1551	42.31%	57.69%	-15.39%
Scio Twp (1/2)	154	177	331	-23	46.53%	53.47%	-6.95%
Superior Twp	1864	2800	4664	-936	39.97%	60.03%	-20.07%
Ypsilanti City	942	3655	4597	-2713	20.49%	79.51%	-59.02%
Ypsilanti Twp	5108	10379	15487	-5271	32.98%	67.02%	-34.03%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Belleville City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Twp	4058	4232	8290	-174	48.95%	51.05%	-2.10%
Dearborn	6455	6353	12808	102	50.40%	49.60%	0.80%
Flat Rock	1351	1274	2625	77	51.47%	48.53%	2.93%
Gibralter			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grosse Ile			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Huron Twp	2839	1956	4795	883	59.21%	40.79%	18.42%
Lincoln Park			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Riverview			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Rockwood	484	533	1017	-49	47.59%	52.41%	-4.82%
Southgate			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Sumpter Twp	1218	1495	2713	-277	44.89%	55.11%	-10.21%
Taylor	6034	8512	14546	-2478	41.48%	58.52%	-17.04%
Trenton			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Van Buren Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Woodhaven			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Wyandotte			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	43796	76341	120137	-32545	36.46%	63.54%	-27.09%

Dingell trailing in new poll

As I said earlier, I'll believe it when I see it, but Dingell is trailing 44-40 in this new poll by Rossman. It's generally a 60% Democrat district, so I'll be shocked if Dingell loses, but if Dingell is trailing in a district with Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, Romulus, and Inkster in it, what does that say about the state of the dems in Michigan? I'd like to see a poll of the Kildee-Kupiec race and Levin-Volaric race as well, both of which have similar percentages of democrats as this Dingell district.

Dr. Rob Steele may have a shot at this, especially with Snyder on the ballot. I'm not a big Snyder guy, but he is from Dingell's district and will do better than most republicans in Washtenaw County.

If this is really the case, then we are looking at another 1994

I'm not sold yet on this being a 1994 type year, and I have an "I'll believe it when I see it" view on this poll, but I got this in an email.

If Election was held today:

John Dingell - 51%
Rob Steele - 42%

If those numbers are true, than this is a winnable district with the right turnout. I have heard of a lot of discontent though in this district, even in Ypsilanti of all places. Ypsi is the 2nd most democrat part of the district outside of Inkster. There was a five way primary for this seat. That alone tells me there is some discontent.

Again, I'll believe it with Dingell when I see it since this district is normally 62-38 at the top of the ticket. The only one to win it somewhat recently was Engler against Fieger. Is the anti-incumbency movement strong enough to beat the guy who always survives, and survived 1994 easily despite having a potentially competitive (in the right year) district in the 90's.

Rick Snyder may help in the Washtenaw County portion, although he could hurt the ticket downriver. Dr. Rob Steele is probably the best candidate Dingell's faced since 94.

Dingell's weakest numbers were in 94, 96, and 92. 59%, 62%, and 65%. The old district was strictly most of downriver and Monroe and going off memory, was I believe a 53% Gore district. The current district was 60% Gore.

It would take a Scott Brown type of effort to beat Dingell, a lot of hard work and a lot of help. I said that I'd believe Massachusetts would vote for a Republican Senator when I see it. I saw it.

Monroe County is winnable. Bush won it. Bush won Dearborn in 2000. I'll be shocked if Dingell loses there. That's his home. If Dr. Steele can do the impossible and cut his losses in Ypsi and Ann Arbor, while winning Monroe and Huron township and the Washtenaw townships big, and some of the more competitive areas downriver, it's possible. If, if, and if. If Scott Brown can somehow win Quincy...

In reality, this should be close, and polling now has it close for this district.

Michigan 15th District (MI-15) Updated

Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 15th District - Congress

Incumbent - John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 55
Cook District Numbers - D+13

GOP Candidates - Rob Steele

Dem Candidate - John Dingell

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 66%
McCain - 32%

2004:
Kerry - 62%
Bush - 38%

2000
Gore - 60%
Bush - 38%

This district was created to combine two democrat incumbents at the time.Lynn Rivers represented Ann  Arbor, Ypsilanti, and Western Wayne County. John Dingell represented southern Wayne County and Monroe County. The primary pitted two different styles of democrats. The populist labor friend of the auto industry which dominates suburban Wayne County,  and the feminist, green, anti-gunner which dominates the Ann Arbor area. Dingell won, and showed that at then 76 years of age in 2002, he could still campaign with the best of them. Dingell's been in office for 55 years. He originally represented part of the City of Detroit. Now his district is based in part of Downriver.

This district covers all of Monroe County. It also covers in Washtenaw County - The City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Township, Augusta Township, City of Milan, Pittsfield Township, part of Scio Township, Superior Township, York Township, the City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Township. In Wayne County, it covers Brownstown Township, Part of Dearborn, Part of Dearborn Heights, Flat Rock, Huron Township, Inkster, Rockwood,  Romulus, Sumpter Township, Taylor, and Woodhaven. Most of this area votes for democrats, although Monroe County, Augusta Twp, York Twp, Huron Twp, Flat Rock, and Woodhaven is sometimes competitive. It would take a 1994 type of year to win this district. John Engler did it though, possibly twice.

Here's Dingell's 2008 numbers.

2008 Elections	Lynch	Dingell	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Monroe County	27,428	45,890	2829	76,147	-18462	36.02%	60.27%	-24.25%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor	10,300	46,520	3275	60,095	-36220	17.14%	77.41%	-60.27%
Ann Arbor Township	769	1,768	78	2,615	-999	29.41%	67.61%	-38.20%
Augusta Township	1,127	2,104	177	3,408	-977	33.07%	61.74%	-28.67%
City of Milan	678	1,118	100	1,896	-440	35.76%	58.97%	-23.21%
Pittsfield Township	4,563	10,743	677	15,983	-6180	28.55%	67.22%	-38.67%
Scio Township (4)	41	115	2	158	-74	25.95%	72.78%	-46.84%
Scio Township (7)		2		2	-2	0.00%	100.00%	-100.00%
Scio Township (8)	72	135	5	212	-63	33.96%	63.68%	-29.72%
Scio Township (9)	5	22	4	31	-17	16.13%	70.97%	-54.84%
Superior Township	1,848	4,790	247	6,885	-2942	26.84%	69.57%	-42.73%
York Township	1,981	1,979	173	4,133	2	47.93%	47.88%	0.05%
City of Ypsilanti	1,170	7,185	638	8,993	-6015	13.01%	79.90%	-66.89%
Ypsilanti Township	5,425	19,017	1111	25,553	-13592	21.23%	74.42%	-53.19%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Township	3,658	9,580	443	13,681	-5922	26.74%	70.02%	-43.29%
City of Dearborn	5,581	12,242	781	18,604	-6661	30.00%	65.80%	-35.80%
Dearborn Heights	4,660	13,465	757	18,882	-8805	24.68%	71.31%	-46.63%
City of Flat Rock	1,220	2,859	170	4,249	-1639	28.71%	67.29%	-38.57%
Huron Township	2,506	4,504	347	7,357	-1998	34.06%	61.22%	-27.16%
City of Inkster	561	11,059	270	11,890	-10498	4.72%	93.01%	-88.29%
City of Rockwood	435	1,064	55	1,554	-629	27.99%	68.47%	-40.48%
City of Romulus	1,605	9,335	426	11,366	-7730	14.12%	82.13%	-68.01%
Sumpter Township	1,194	3,096	249	4,539	-1902	26.31%	68.21%	-41.90%
City of Taylor	5,750	18,937	1294	25,981	-13187	22.13%	72.89%	-50.76%
City of Woodhaven	1,925	4,265	227	6,417	-2340	30.00%	66.46%	-36.47%
Total	84,502	231,794	14,335	330,631	-147292	25.56%	70.11%	-44.55%

Here's the Presidential numbers broken down by county in the district. I skipped the Scio Township numbers since they were so insignificant parts of a precinct. That means these numbers are more democrat, while the 7th District numbers are slightly more republican.


Monroe County
2000 - Gore 51.07%, Bush 46.84%, 61,785 votes, -2615 vote spread
2004 - Bush 50.54%, Kerry 48.68%, 74,132 votes, 1381 vote spread
2008 - Obama 51.27%, McCain 46.92%, 73502 votes, -3322 vote spread

Washtenaw County Portion
2000 - Gore 67.84%, Bush 30.80%, 105530 votes, -35953 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 69.62%, Bush 29.29%, 124181 votes, -50083 vote spread
2008 - Obama 75.64%, McCain 22.99%, 135100 votes, -71129 vote spread

Wayne County Portion
2000 - Gore 60.12%, Bush 37.56%, 95,965 votes, -21643 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 60.29%, Bush 38.87%, 115802 votes, -24800 vote spread
2008 - Obama 64.29%, McCain 33.98%, 129,313 votes -39191 vote spread.

Here's the 2000 numbers. Surprisingly today, Bush actually won normally democrat Dearborn that year. I think Joe Lieberman may have something to do with that. It's flipped in a big way since then, going back to its roots (Dingell's represented Dearborn since 1966) after the Iraq war.

2000 Elections	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Monroe County	28,940	31,555	1290	61,785	-2615	46.84%	51.07%	-4.23%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor	13,473	36,597	2826	52,896	-23124	25.47%	69.19%	-43.72%
Ann Arbor Township	1,167	1,491	79	2,737	-324	42.64%	54.48%	-11.84%
Augusta Township	1,037	1,201	89	2,327	-164	44.56%	51.61%	-7.05%
City of Milan	656	735	28	1,419	-79	46.23%	51.80%	-5.57%
Pittsfield Township	5,183	6,833	390	12,406	-1650	41.78%	55.08%	-13.30%
Scio Township (4)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Superior Township	1,704	2,973	132	4,809	-1269	35.43%	61.82%	-26.39%
York Township	1,740	1,291	87	3,118	449	55.81%	41.40%	14.40%
City of Ypsilanti	1,459	4,681	365	6,505	-3222	22.43%	71.96%	-49.53%
Ypsilanti Township	6,088	12,658	567	19,313	-6570	31.52%	65.54%	-34.02%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Township	3,412	4,944	191	8,547	-1532	39.92%	57.84%	-17.92%
City of Dearborn				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D31	253	237	20	510	16	49.61%	46.47%	3.14%
D32	284	249	18	551	35	51.54%	45.19%	6.35%
D33	320	300	18	638	20	50.16%	47.02%	3.13%
D34	350	285	26	661	65	52.95%	43.12%	9.83%
D35	266	188	10	464	78	57.33%	40.52%	16.81%
D36	180	148	7	335	32	53.73%	44.18%	9.55%
D37	156	161	10	327	-5	47.71%	49.24%	-1.53%
D38	158	145	15	318	13	49.69%	45.60%	4.09%
D39	213	133	12	358	80	59.50%	37.15%	22.35%
D40	263	201	13	477	62	55.14%	42.14%	13.00%
D41	278	137	7	422	141	65.88%	32.46%	33.41%
D42	377	213	15	605	164	62.31%	35.21%	27.11%
D43	246	216	13	475	30	51.79%	45.47%	6.32%
D44	295	219	20	534	76	55.24%	41.01%	14.23%
D45	230	181	13	424	49	54.25%	42.69%	11.56%
D46	296	125	14	435	171	68.05%	28.74%	39.31%
D47	231	201	20	452	30	51.11%	44.47%	6.64%
D48	226	155	14	395	71	57.22%	39.24%	17.97%
D49	153	163	14	330	-10	46.36%	49.39%	-3.03%
D50	100	155	10	265	-55	37.74%	58.49%	-20.75%
D955				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D956				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D957				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D958				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Dearborn Heights	11,049	12,574	757	24,380	-1525	45.32%	51.58%	-6.26%
DH 6	-158	-196	-16	(370)	38	42.70%	52.97%	-10.27%
DH7	-266	-290	-19	(575)	24	46.26%	50.43%	-4.17%
DH8	-268	-227	-12	(507)	-41	52.86%	44.77%	8.09%
DH9	-181	-227	-15	(423)	46	42.79%	53.66%	-10.87%
DH10	-160	-218	-14	(392)	58	40.82%	55.61%	-14.80%
DH11	-206	-221	-15	(442)	15	46.61%	50.00%	-3.39%
DH12	-187	-297	-11	(495)	110	37.78%	60.00%	-22.22%
DH13	-267	-262	-12	(541)	-5	49.35%	48.43%	0.92%
DH37	-113	-235	-9	(357)	122	31.65%	65.83%	-34.17%
DH38	-216	-246	-12	(474)	30	45.57%	51.90%	-6.33%
DH941	-409	-478	-21	(908)	69	45.04%	52.64%	-7.60%
DH942	-20	-38		(58)	18	34.48%	65.52%	-31.03%
City of Flat Rock	1,259	1,769	71	3,099	-510	40.63%	57.08%	-16.46%
Huron Township	2,602	3,053	120	5,775	-451	45.06%	52.87%	-7.81%
City of Inkster	976	8,210	102	9,288	-7234	10.51%	88.39%	-77.89%
City of Rockwood	609	870	42	1,521	-261	40.04%	57.20%	-17.16%
City of Romulus	2,106	5,930	164	8,200	-3824	25.68%	72.32%	-46.63%
Sumpter Township	1,467	2,563	69	4,099	-1096	35.79%	62.53%	-26.74%
City of Taylor	7,718	13,708	488	21,914	-5990	35.22%	62.55%	-27.33%
City of Woodhaven	2,427	3,194	87	5,708	-767	42.52%	55.96%	-13.44%
Total	97,496	157,707	8,077	263,280	-60211	37.03%	59.90%	-22.87%

Here's the 2004 numbers.

2004 Elections	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Monroe County	37,470	36,089	573	74,132	1381	50.54%	48.68%	1.86%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor	13,153	45,117	700	58,970	-31964	22.30%	76.51%	-54.20%
Ann Arbor Township	1,083	1,787	10	2,880	-704	37.60%	62.05%	-24.44%
Augusta Township	1,411	1,599	42	3,052	-188	46.23%	52.39%	-6.16%
City of Milan	822	822	17	1,661	0	49.49%	49.49%	0.00%
Pittsfield Township	5,839	9,271	157	15,267	-3432	38.25%	60.73%	-22.48%
Scio Township (4)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Superior Township	2,227	3,948	44	6,219	-1721	35.81%	63.48%	-27.67%
York Township	2,367	1,623	23	4,013	744	58.98%	40.44%	18.54%
City of Ypsilanti	1,581	6,046	125	7,752	-4465	20.39%	77.99%	-57.60%
Ypsilanti Township	7,887	16,240	240	24,367	-8353	32.37%	66.65%	-34.28%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Township	5,369	6,916	114	12,399	-1547	43.30%	55.78%	-12.48%
City of Dearborn				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D31	323	343	8	674	-20	47.92%	50.89%	-2.97%
D32	363	266	10	639	97	56.81%	41.63%	15.18%
D33	286	278	2	566	8	50.53%	49.12%	1.41%
D34	366	341	11	718	25	50.97%	47.49%	3.48%
D35	288	231	3	522	57	55.17%	44.25%	10.92%
D36	283	168	6	457	115	61.93%	36.76%	25.16%
D37	380	241	1	622	139	61.09%	38.75%	22.35%
D38	264	237	5	506	27	52.17%	46.84%	5.34%
D39	295	253	7	555	42	53.15%	45.59%	7.57%
D40	245	214	6	465	31	52.69%	46.02%	6.67%
D41	263	212	5	480	51	54.79%	44.17%	10.63%
D42	229	234	10	473	-5	48.41%	49.47%	-1.06%
D43	207	280	2	489	-73	42.33%	57.26%	-14.93%
D44	255	364	10	629	-109	40.54%	57.87%	-17.33%
D45	233	199	7	439	34	53.08%	45.33%	7.74%
D46	256	252	11	519	4	49.33%	48.55%	0.77%
D47	250	262	9	521	-12	47.98%	50.29%	-2.30%
D48	237	286	9	532	-49	44.55%	53.76%	-9.21%
D49	216	260	5	481	-44	44.91%	54.05%	-9.15%
D50	212	235	7	454	-23	46.70%	51.76%	-5.07%
D955				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D956				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D957				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D958				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Dearborn Heights	11,128	14,902	285	26,315	-3774	42.29%	56.63%	-14.34%
DH 6	-148	-257	-1	(406)	109	36.45%	63.30%	-26.85%
DH7	-288	-380	-13	(681)	92	42.29%	55.80%	-13.51%
DH8	-238	-274	-8	(520)	36	45.77%	52.69%	-6.92%
DH9	-195	-232	-8	(435)	37	44.83%	53.33%	-8.51%
DH10	-152	-237	-11	(400)	85	38.00%	59.25%	-21.25%
DH11	-272	-301	-14	(587)	29	46.34%	51.28%	-4.94%
DH12	-243	-336	-9	(588)	93	41.33%	57.14%	-15.82%
DH13	-253	-263	-4	(520)	10	48.65%	50.58%	-1.92%
DH37	-108	-263	-3	(374)	155	28.88%	70.32%	-41.44%
DH38	-208	-282	-11	(501)	74	41.52%	56.29%	-14.77%
DH941	-82	-119	-3	(204)	37	40.20%	58.33%	-18.14%
DH942	-602	-776	-17	(1,395)	174	43.15%	55.63%	-12.47%
City of Flat Rock	1,917	2,233	37	4,187	-316	45.78%	53.33%	-7.55%
Huron Township	3,578	3,417	53	7,048	161	50.77%	48.48%	2.28%
City of Inkster	1,254	9,729	51	11,034	-8475	11.36%	88.17%	-76.81%
City of Rockwood	759	948	10	1,717	-189	44.21%	55.21%	-11.01%
City of Romulus	2,848	7,563	80	10,491	-4715	27.15%	72.09%	-44.94%
Sumpter Township	1,979	2,963	38	4,980	-984	39.74%	59.50%	-19.76%
City of Taylor	10,444	16,377	225	27,046	-5933	38.62%	60.55%	-21.94%
City of Woodhaven	3,076	3,330	49	6,455	-254	47.65%	51.59%	-3.93%
Total	118,854	192,356	2,905	314,115	-73502	37.84%	61.24%	-23.40%

Here's the 2008 numbers.

2008 Elections	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Monroe County	35,858	39,180	1384	76,422	-3322	46.92%	51.27%	-4.35%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor	10,712	51,587	836	63,135	-40875	16.97%	81.71%	-64.74%
Ann Arbor Township	829	1,836	23	2,688	-1007	30.84%	68.30%	-37.46%
Augusta Township	1,489	1,979	78	3,546	-490	41.99%	55.81%	-13.82%
City of Milan	802	1,151	31	1,984	-349	40.42%	58.01%	-17.59%
Pittsfield Township	5,042	11,342	210	16,594	-6300	30.38%	68.35%	-37.97%
Scio Township (4)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Superior Township	2,048	4,951	109	7,108	-2903	28.81%	69.65%	-40.84%
York Township	2,313	1,934	56	4,303	379	53.75%	44.95%	8.81%
City of Ypsilanti	1,306	7,828	170	9,304	-6522	14.04%	84.14%	-70.10%
Ypsilanti Township	6,517	19,579	342	26,438	-13062	24.65%	74.06%	-49.41%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Township	5,373	8,668	138	14,179	-3295	37.89%	61.13%	-23.24%
City of Dearborn				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D31	212	423	8	643	-211	32.97%	65.79%	-32.81%
D32	280	389	14	683	-109	41.00%	56.95%	-15.96%
D33	230	350	10	590	-120	38.98%	59.32%	-20.34%
D34	402	581	22	1,005	-179	40.00%	57.81%	-17.81%
D35	261	351	10	622	-90	41.96%	56.43%	-14.47%
D36	269	370	16	655	-101	41.07%	56.49%	-15.42%
D37	250	306	12	568	-56	44.01%	53.87%	-9.86%
D38	300	301	11	612	-1	49.02%	49.18%	-0.16%
D39	316	360	9	685	-44	46.13%	52.55%	-6.42%
D40	286	302	8	596	-16	47.99%	50.67%	-2.68%
D41	415	381	9	805	34	51.55%	47.33%	4.22%
D42	276	344	10	630	-68	43.81%	54.60%	-10.79%
D43	365	387	20	772	-22	47.28%	50.13%	-2.85%
D44	441	471	24	936	-30	47.12%	50.32%	-3.21%
D45	373	598	27	998	-225	37.37%	59.92%	-22.55%
D46	355	540	16	911	-185	38.97%	59.28%	-20.31%
D47	269	390	17	676	-121	39.79%	57.69%	-17.90%
D48	281	373	9	663	-92	42.38%	56.26%	-13.88%
D49	380	574	31	985	-194	38.58%	58.27%	-19.70%
D50	277	490	18	785	-213	35.29%	62.42%	-27.13%
D955	630	580	16	1,226	50	51.39%	47.31%	4.08%
D956	544	532	12	1,088	12	50.00%	48.90%	1.10%
D957	573	655	27	1,255	-82	45.66%	52.19%	-6.53%
D958	465	491	19	975	-26	47.69%	50.36%	-2.67%
Dearborn Heights	9,466	16,095	543	26,104	-6629	36.26%	61.66%	-25.39%
DH 6	-96	-313	-5	(414)	217	23.19%	75.60%	-52.42%
DH7	-242	-413	-9	(664)	171	36.45%	62.20%	-25.75%
DH8	-196	-281	-7	(484)	85	40.50%	58.06%	-17.56%
DH9	-142	-282	-8	(432)	140	32.87%	65.28%	-32.41%
DH10	-126	-216	-10	(352)	90	35.80%	61.36%	-25.57%
DH11	-185	-321	-10	(516)	136	35.85%	62.21%	-26.36%
DH12	-180	-331	-13	(524)	151	34.35%	63.17%	-28.82%
DH13	-199	-280	-8	(487)	81	40.86%	57.49%	-16.63%
DH37	-86	-305	-7	(398)	219	21.61%	76.63%	-55.03%
DH38	-162	-278	-20	(460)	116	35.22%	60.43%	-25.22%
DH941	-71	-144	-4	(219)	73	32.42%	65.75%	-33.33%
DH942	-697	-804	-36	(1,537)	107	45.35%	52.31%	-6.96%
City of Flat Rock	1,807	2,504	101	4,412	-697	40.96%	56.75%	-15.80%
Huron Township	3,669	3,852	176	7,697	-183	47.67%	50.05%	-2.38%
City of Inkster	699	11,340	72	12,111	-10641	5.77%	93.63%	-87.86%
City of Rockwood	678	900	39	1,617	-222	41.93%	55.66%	-13.73%
City of Romulus	2,404	9,202	164	11,770	-6798	20.42%	78.18%	-57.76%
Sumpter Township	1,696	2,961	84	4,741	-1265	35.77%	62.46%	-26.68%
City of Taylor	9,224	17,264	563	27,051	-8040	34.10%	63.82%	-29.72%
City of Woodhaven	2,863	3,781	110	6,754	-918	42.39%	55.98%	-13.59%
Total	110,863	224,505	5,467	340,835	-113642	32.53%	65.87%	-33.34%

The farm club has mostly democrat areas, but not all of them are.

St. Senate 18th - Covers the City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Twp, Augusta Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lyndon Twp, Northfield Twp, a small portion of Pittsfield Twp, Salem Twp, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Superior Twp, Sylvan Twp, City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Twp in Washtenaw County. This is one of the most democrat state senate seats in the state. Most of this is in the 15th District (Dingell), but some of this is in the 7th.

St Senate 18th	GOP	Dem
06 - Kopinski/Brater	29,075	72,774	3	101,852	-43699	28.55%	71.45%	-42.90%
02 - Darr/Brater	27,726	52,912	2635	83,273	-25186	33.30%	63.54%	-30.25%

St. Senate 17th - Covers all of Monroe County, Grass Lake, Leoni, Norvell, and Summit Twps in Jackson County, and Bridgwater Twp, Lodi Twp, Manchester Twp, city of Milan, Pittsfield Twp, City of Saline, Saline Twp, and York Twp in Washtenaw County. This is another swing district. Monroe County is a swing county that has gone democrat more than republican. The rest of the area swings as well, although Washtenaw County portion is more democrat and the Jackson County portion more republican, although neither overwhelmingly so (Jackson thanks to Leoni, Washtenaw, thanks to everything but Pittsfield).The Jackson County and some of the Washtenaw County portion is in the 7th district. The rest is in the 15th. Randy Richardville is the incumbent who won in the tough 2006 year.

St Senate 17th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Richardville/Schockman	52113	45445		97,558	6668	53.42%	46.58%	6.83%
02 - Hammerstrom/LeMasters	44773	30262		75,035	14511	59.67%	40.33%	19.34%

St Senate 8th -  Covers Allen Park, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Romulus, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte in Wayne County. This is one of the two main downriver districts. It is solidly democrat with only Allen Park occasionally competitive. Ray Basham is a termed out incumbent most famous for the big government smoking ban.

St Senate 8th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Kalsic/Basham	21,727	58,501	2197	82,425	-36774	26.36%	70.97%	-44.62%
02 - Montelauro/Basham	22,128	43,874	2312	68,314	-21746	32.39%	64.22%	-31.83%

St Senate 7th - Covers Belleville, Brownstown Twp, Canton Twp, City of Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Twp, Huron Twp, City of Northville (Wayne County side), Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, City of Rockwood, Sumpter Twp, City of Trenton, Van Buren Twp, and City of Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a swing district, if not slightly democrat leaning. Bruce Patterson had two tough wins and is termed out. Patterson won, by cutting into the normal GOP losses in the downriver portions of the district, while winning Canton, Plymouth Twp and Northville. This will be a major battle in 2010. It's been a battleground district for years, as was its similar district pre-redistricting represented by Lorne Bennett.

St Senate 7th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Patterson/Slavens	59,647	56,156		115,803	3491	51.51%	48.49%	3.01%
02 - Patterson/Mans	52,435	40,675		93,110	11760	56.32%	43.68%	12.63%

St Senate 5th - Dearborn Heights, Detroit, and Inkster - This is a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn Heights separates black majority Inkster and Detroit, so it's included. Detroit itself is the most democrat city over 100,000 people in the country. Tupac Hunter is the incumbent.

St Senate 5th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Malhalab/Hunter	8,164	56,252	1510	65,926	-48088	12.38%	85.33%	-72.94%
02 - Patrick/Leland	10,334	49,780		60,114	-39446	17.19%	82.81%	-65.62%

St Senate 3rd - Covers Dearborn, Detroit, and River Rouge - This is also a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn is about 1/3 of the district and is outvoted by Detroit. Irma Clark-Coleman is the incumbent and is termed out. .

St Senate 3rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Sophiea/Clark-Coleman	12,353	58,063		70,416	-45710	17.54%	82.46%	-64.91%
02 - Hernandez/Clark	12,855	53,395	3	66,253	-40540	19.40%	80.59%	-61.19%

St Rep 56th - Covers Ash Township, Berlin Township,  Exeter Township, Frenchtown Township, Ida Township, La Salle Township, London Township, City of Luna Pier, City of Monroe, Monroe Township, and Raisinville Township in Monroe County. This is a swing district with a slight democrat leaning, although Randy Richardville has won here on several occasions. Kate Ebli is the incumbent.

St Rep 56th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Dahm/Ebli	15,459	28,495	1224	45,178	-13036	34.22%	63.07%	-28.85%
06 - Manor/Ebli	16,133	18,468		34,601	-2335	46.63%	53.37%	-6.75%
04 - Manor/Kerhl	20,671	21,554	1662	43,887	-883	47.10%	49.11%	-2.01%
02 - Richardville/Sacks	17,357	9,004		26,361	8353	65.84%	34.16%	31.69%

St Rep 55th - Covers Bedford Township, Dundee Township, Erie Township, City of Milan, Milan Township, City of Petersburg, Summerfield Township, and Whiteford Township in Monroe County, and City of Milan, Pittsfield Township, One precinct in Saline Township, and York Township in Washtenaw County. This is a swing district with the more Republican areas of Monroe County, and democrat Pittsfield Township in Washtenaw County. Pittsfield's leanings alone can flip this seat as it happened in 2004.
 

St Rep 55th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Moynihan/Angerer	17,054	33,236		50,290	-16182	33.91%	66.09%	-32.18%
06 - Milosch/Angerer	13,208	23,409		36,617	-10201	36.07%	63.93%	-27.86%
04 - Milosch/Angerer	23,980	24,299		48,279	-319	49.67%	50.33%	-0.66%
02 - Milosch/Hauser-Hurley	14,287	12,679		26,966	1608	52.98%	47.02%	5.96%

St Rep 54th - Covers Augusta Township, Salem Township, Superior Township, the City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti township in Washtenaw County. This is a solidly democrat district based in Ypsi.

St Rep 54th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Banks/Smith	12,283	33,509	1319	47,111	-21226	26.07%	71.13%	-45.06%
06 - Banks/Smith	9,036	22,250	1402	32,688	-13214	27.64%	68.07%	-40.42%
04 - Myers/Smith	12,698	28,568	860	42,126	-15870	30.14%	67.82%	-37.67%
02 - Trent/Jamnick	8,112	17,888		26,000	-9776	31.20%	68.80%	-37.60%

St Rep 53rd - Covers most of Ann Arbor, part of Ann Arbor Township, and small parts of Pittsfield and  Scio Townships in Washtenaw County - This is one of the two most liberal districts in the state.

St Rep 53rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Brewton/Warren	8,282	37,845	2200	48,327	-29563	17.14%	78.31%	-61.17%
06 - Sheagren/Warren	5,898	26,985	847	33,730	-21087	17.49%	80.00%	-62.52%
04 - Sheagren/Kolb	9,127	36,745		45,872	-27618	19.90%	80.10%	-60.21%
02 - Milroy/Kolb	6,279	22,254		28,533	-15975	22.01%	77.99%	-55.99%

St Rep 52nd - Covers Northeastern Ann Arbor, most of Ann Arbor Twp, Bridgwater Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lodi Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, City of Saline, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp. This was created as a swing district, but does have some democrat leanings, especially within the last 6 years. Gene DeRossett won the district in 2002 by winning big in the far western townships as a two term incumbent (of a less democrat district). Pam Byrnes won the 2004 open seat and has held it since. She's termed out. The open seat I'd say favors a democrat, but the Republicans have their best candidate running in Mark Ouimet, who as a county commissioner, somehow still wins in Scio Twp. This will be one to watch.

St Rep 52nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Lielbriedis/Byrnes	19,180	35,957	1982	57,119	-16777	33.58%	62.95%	-29.37%
06 - Brown/Byrnes	16,747	28,046		44,793	-11299	37.39%	62.61%	-25.22%
04 - Yekulis/Byrnes	24,669	29,740		54,409	-5071	45.34%	54.66%	-9.32%
02 - DeRossett/Byrnes	19,579	17,091		36,670	2488	53.39%	46.61%	6.78%

State Rep 23rd - Covers Brownstown Township, Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Township, Huron Township, Rockwood, Sumpter Township, and Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a slight democrat leaning district, but competitive some years. It was very close in 2002.

St Rep 23rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - DeBlois/Kennedy	18,376	26,987		45,363	-8611	40.51%	59.49%	-18.98%
06 - Bostic/Law	12,677	21,636		34,313	-8959	36.95%	63.05%	-26.11%
04 - Vollenweider/Law	19,202	24,004	727	43,933	-4802	43.71%	54.64%	-10.93%
02 - Jones/Law	13,171	13,430	552	27,153	-259	48.51%	49.46%	-0.95%

State Rep 22nd - Covers Romulus and Taylor in Wayne County - Solidly democrat district covering the airport area. Heavily union and airport workers.

St Rep 22nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - McNeill/Geiss	6,780	25,676	3919	36,375	-18896	18.64%	70.59%	-51.95%
06 - Armstrong/Hopgood	5,882	19,260	895	26,037	-13378	22.59%	73.97%	-51.38%
04 - Kalsic/Hopgood	8,863	24,375	1807	35,045	-15512	25.29%	69.55%	-44.26%
02 - Vaughan/Hopgood	5,696	14,042	657	20,395	-8346	27.93%	68.85%	-40.92%

State Rep 16th - Covers part of Allen Park, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Inkster - Solidly democrat. All areas here lean democrat, with Inkster anchoring this seat.

St Rep 16th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Smith/Constan	9,133	28,195		37,328	-19062	24.47%	75.53%	-51.07%
06 - DeLozier/Constan	7,002	19,346		26,348	-12344	26.58%	73.42%	-46.85%
04 - Lauster/Plakas	9,259	25,756	1626	36,641	-16497	25.27%	70.29%	-45.02%
02 - Homeier/Plakas	5,595	16,693	913	23,201	-11098	24.12%	71.95%	-47.83%

State Rep 15th - Covers most of Dearborn - Strongly leans democrat, although Gary Woronchak won as a republican before switching parties. Dearborn long leaned Democrat being Dingell's home base since the 1960's. Bush won it in 2000, but Iraq shifted Dearborn about 10% more D at the top of the ticket.

St Rep 15th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Saionz/Polidori	8,292	28,606		36,898	-20314	22.47%	77.53%	-55.05%
06 - Ghasham/Polidori	6,755	21,391		28,146	-14636	24.00%	76.00%	-52.00%
04 - Thomas/Polidori	13,063	23,923		36,986	-10860	35.32%	64.68%	-29.36%
02 - Woronchak	19,227			19,227	19227	100.00%	0.00%	100.00%

Overall, this is a seat that did its job in 2002. It combined the Lynn Rivers base in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti with Dingell's base in Southern Wayne County and Monroe County in an attempt to knock out Lynn Rivers or John Dingell. It did exactly that. It is a very difficult district for the GOP to win, although Engler carried it in 1998. Dingell's a hard worker, and usually doesn't take elections for granted. It depends on whether the bleeding can be stopped in the Ann Arbor area bringing it back at least to its 1990's era numbers (more the burbs), carrying Monroe big, and finally breaking through downriver with Inkster, Romulus, and a lot of the democrat base staying home. It's easy to say, and difficult to do, as this seat was gerrymandered to put two different democrat bases together, without giving Dingell's home to the Conyers district.

Update 5-18-2010 - I'm surprised there's a 5 way primary on the GOP side considering this district's history. Two of the candidates are in Ypsi, and three are in Wayne County. Maybe something is brewing here. At worst case scenario, maybe we can flip the Monroe districts and one of the downriver seats with some hard work.