Updates (Hamburg, MI-12)

First - Hamburg - From the Argus

Hamburg Township residents in November would be asked to fund a 15-year, roughly $19.4 million road tax under a plan proposed by a committee of residents.
Hamburg’s Road Focus Group was formed in July to consider a millage to address crumbling county roads in the township after inaction in Lansing.
The proposal would levy 2 mills in the millage’s first five years, then 1 mill in years six through 15. The Board of Trustees would need to approve the proposal before it is put before voters.
The millage would be “pay as you go,” meaning it wouldn’t be levied if the Legislature or county officials approve plans to fix the roads, Township Supervisor Pat Hohl said.
“This is a lot of work, and if we go out to the voters, we want to go out with the best product the voters have a familiarity with, or have an education on, and they can make their mind up in November,” he said.

I was at one of the meetings. If Cunningham Lake and Bauer Road (Both which have portions in Hamburg Township) are not on the road list, then Protect Genoa Township Neighborhoods is going to stay out.

I respect how Pat Hohl and company are working the process here compared to Gary McCririe and Genoa Township. Genoa's push was "all or nothing" and "this is how it's going to be." It was soundly defeated and I know our postcard was much "loved" by the powers that be there.  Hamburg Township has focus groups of citizens that have their input into the decision which is still in the workds. It's an open process and I haven't seen any games being played here. I also respect how this is going to be a November 2014 ballot issue instead of an off year sneak job.

We'll see what happens. The issue here will be determined by its merits and demerits, not gamesmanship.


As for MI-12, as expected a Dingell has announced. It's John's wife Debbie who is a long time democrat party activists and former GM executive. There may be others that run for the dems as well out of Ann Arbor. Rebekah Warren, former NARAL boss and current State Senator in Ann Arbor is seriously considering a run.

Terry Bowman, head of Union Conservatives is likely a candidate for the Republicans. Terry's a good guy and the type of candidate here who can make inroads for our party, helping in our statewide campaigns.

MI-12 - Dingell Retiring

From WDIV

DETROIT - Michigan Rep. John Dingell, the longest-serving congressman in U.S. history, will announce his retirement on Monday.
Dingell is expected to formally announce his decision to not seek re-election during a luncheon in Southgate.

The 87-year-old democrat and Dean of the House of Representatives was first elected in 1955, filling the House seat vacated by his late father.
Dingell set the record for the longest-serving member last year when he hit 58 years of service. 

Many are cheering. I'm not. $20 says the replacement will be a lot worse. Dingell was an old school FDR type of labor democrat. I didn't agree with him on much, but at least he was generally (not always) pro-2nd Amendment and supportive of the auto industry. The replacement could very well be coming from the People's Republic of Ann Arbor.

This is a safe district for democrats.  There are several different parts of the district.

Dearborn/Downriver - They aren't exactly the same, but the same type of democrat does well. UAW and steelworker. Moderate on social issues. Populist. That's Dingell's base. About 396,000 people, mostly white ethnic.

Airport area (Partially) - A mix of downriver, government workers (Metro Airport), and a fairly large black population. That's also Dingell's base. Romulus, Wayne, Westland, and Inkster are in Conyers district. Dingell has Van Buren Twp, Belleville, Sumpter, and Huron Township.  About 58,000 in the district.  

Ypsilanti area - Actually more democrat than Ann Arbor. A mix of inner city, college town (EMU), and UAW. Dingell made some strong inroads here when running against Lynn Rivers, especially with the minorities. Ypsilanti (City and Township), Pittsfield Twp east of US-23. SE part of Superior Township (Willow Run). About 98,000 in the district.

Ann Arbor - City College of New York, West. A bit of east coast implanted on the Midwest, without the character. Go MSU. They tolerated Dingell, but he wasn't their favorite due to guns and his support of the automobile industry.  Mostly white with some Asians and a declining black population. Very strong green, gay rights, and feminist streak.  About 150,000.

In the Lynn Rivers vs John Dingell 2002 grudge match, the results were as follows.
Wayne County   - Dingell 31364, Rivers 11203
Monroe County - Dingell 14698, Rivers 3613
Washtenaw County - Dingell 11728, Rivers 26016
Within Washtenaw:
Ann Arbor - Rivers won 80-20
Milan (Walberg's District now) - Rivers won 55-45
Ypsi - Rivers won 63-37 (Dingell won black precincts)
Ann Arbor Twp - Rivers won 68-31
Augusta Twp (Walberg's district now) - Dingell won 55-45
Pittsfield Twp - Rivers won 63-37
Scio Twp - 11 votes for Rivers, 0 for Dingell (most was in Walberg's District then)
Superior Twp - Dingell won 51-49 (Willow Run)
York Twp (Walberg's District now) - Dingell won 57-42
Ypsilanti Twp - Rivers won 50-49

I think one of the reasons Dingell is retiring is due to downriver being back in his district. He's a Dearborn/Downriver guy and wants his replacement to be from there. I think Debbie Dingell may run. Chris Dingell (John's son), a Wayne County Judge was rumored long ago to be the successor intended for this seat. He's in the Trenton area in the district. He could run, but would have to give up a nice spot to do it. I expect either Debbie or Chris Dingell to run, but not both. 

The democrat bench is strong.
Lynn Rivers - Ex Congresscritter. Ann Arbor.
Alma Wheeler Smith - Ypsilanti/Ann Arbor. Ties to both.
Rebekah Warren, Liz Brater, Chris Kolb, - Ann Arbor current/former reps.
John Hiefje - Ann Arbor mayor.
David Rutledge - Ypsi state rep
George Darany, Paul or Ed Clemente, The Kandrevases, Hoon-Yung Hopgood, Ray Basham, - State Reps/Senate from Wayne County.  
The only Republican bench in this district is Pat Somerville, and I doubt he's giving up his far downriver state rep seat for this. Grosse Ile and Huron Township isn't going to carry a congressional district.

Some national folks have mentioned Pam Byrnes and Glenn Anderson. Pam Byrnes is from the Chelsea area. That's about as far from MI-12 than I am even though I'm in a different county. She's not going to carpetbag. Glenn Anderson is from Westland. That's not in the district, and his old territory in the state senate is Redford, Garden City, Westland, and Livonia. NO Chance. Scratch both of those names. They aren't going to be it.

I expect at least one Wayne County and one Washtenaw County candidate to run regardless of the wishes of the establishment in the other community. My guesses (and that's all they are) 

Washtenaw
Alma Wheeler Smith, Liz Brater, and Rebekah Warren in that order.
Wayne:
Debbie Dingell, Chris Dingell, Ray Basham (Former State Senator) in that order. 

Personally, I hope both sides beat the tar out of each other and alienate the other side into staying home in November.

Congressional District 12 (MI-12) - Updated

Update 2014: Dingell's retiring, but his wife's running for his spot and is the frontrunner. Terry Bowman is an interesting candidate here. He's a union member and does not support the leadership at all. He can make inroads with swing voters many other Republicans can't do.

MI-12 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent –Open with John Dingell retiring
Years in office as of 2014 election – 59

Challengers – Terry Bowman (R-Ypsilanti), Stephen Farkas (R-Dearborn), Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), Raymond Mullins (D-Ypsilanti)

2012:

John Dingell – 214011 – 67.99%

Cynthia Kallgren – 90955 – 28.90%

-123056 vote difference

Romney – 105848 votes – 32.68%

Obama – 214411 votes – 66.19%

-108653 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Dearborn Heights reprecincted)

McCain – 107670 votes – 31.24%

Obama –  231218 votes – 67.09%

-123548 vote difference

2004: (approx – D. Hghts and Scio Twp reprecincted)

Bush – 120718 votes – 36.99%

Kerry – 201368 votes – 61.709%

-80650 vote difference

Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. Scio Twp did between 2004 and 2008.

This district is a blue sink that combines Downriver labor democrats with Ann Arbor leftists. It did what it was intended to do and that is to pick up as many democrats as possible.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

 

2004

The Washtenaw County portion is centered on two areas. Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor is best described as an East Coast academia city placed in the Midwest. University of Michigan is considered one of the backup schools on the East Coast for those who don’t go to an Ivy League. One of its nicknames is the City College of New York – West. The politics in A2 are divided between townie democrats which more often tend to be Bill Clinton types, and radical feminists and greens like you’d expect to see get elected in academia. Republicans haven’t been competitive in the city in years. Occasionally in the past they had a council seat or even the mayor spot, but they aren’t even considered anymore as dems win across the board here. It’s 75-25D consistently, and with Obama it’s 80/20. The township is less dem, but still 2-1 and ceased being competitive with the apartments built up on the southern edge of the township. Eastern Scio Twp is basically a western extension of Ann Arbor.

Ypsilanti (usually called Ypsi) is also a college town (EMU), but has a much different history. It was also a GM town.  One of it’s nicknames was Ypsi-tucky due to a large number of Appalachian transplants who worked in the Willow Run auto factory. Willow run closed down, but the union influence here remains. Ypsilanti (both city and township) also has a large black population. Romney absolutely bombed in Ypsi. He did bad in Ann Arbor, but at least improved over McCain. Romney had less votes in Ypsi, and in the township, had a worse percentage. Obama took 83% in the City and 74% in the Township. Superior Township to the north is safe dem because of its portion of Willow Run. Three precincts in its southern end are 69%+, including one that’s 90%+ and black majority. It’s large enough to put the township 60%+ D. Pittsfield Twp is one part Ann Arbor, one part Saline, and one part Ypsi in influence. It’s also safe democrat, with a large Asian (not sure Indian or East Asian or both) population in the portion between Ann Arbor and Saline. The east part of Pittsfield twp is heavily minority and EMU influenced. 

Past the County line is Van Buren Twp. It was somewhat competitive not all that long ago. The Canton/Van Buren state rep seat was ours until 2006. A lot of blacks from Romulus and Inkster (or Ypsi) are moving there. It went 67% for Obama in 08, and 71.93% for Obama in 2012. I think white flight is going on there now. It went from 12 to 28% black, and 25% is the usual “tipping point” in metro Detroit. There was also 5000 less presidential votes overall from 2008 to 2012 (suspicious). Belleville’s much more dem than it was in 2004. 63% for Obama twice, while 56% for Bush.

South of there is Sumpter Twp. It’s been consistently 58-62% dem and hasn’t changed much. East of there is Huron Twp which has moved our way some. Gore won it, then Bush, then Obama, and now Romney. It’s always close. East of Huron Twp is the southern part of Downriver. It’s dem, but sometimes we pick off a state rep district here. Grosse Ile and occasionally Huron Twp carry the district. Grosse Ile is 60%+R. Trenton, Woodhaven, and Gibraltar are narrowly democrat. In a great year or with a great candidate, one can flip them. Unfortunately, Romney was a bad candidate here in particular. He got less votes than McCain in Trenton and Gibraltar. Rockwood, Flat Rock, and Riverview are harder. Strangly shaped Brownstown Township (unincorporated and split in 3 sections) is strongly and stubbornly democrat. The north part of that township might as well be part of Taylor.

Northern Downriver is union country and still retains the traditions. It’s largely white ethnic and Appalachian, although the minority population is slowly increasing, particularly Mexicans in Lincoln Park (borders SW Detroit) and blacks in Taylor. Taylor, Lincoln Park, Southgate, and Wyandotte are all 60%+ dem, and they are getting bluer. Romney was a real bad fit here, and had less votes in all four of those areas than McCain. Obama had a higher 2012 percentage in Taylor, Lincoln Park, and Southgate. Was that due to “Let Detroit go bankrupt?” Probably. North of there is somewhat competitive Allen Park. It’s winnable in a great year. 2012 wasn’t it.

Lastly, Dearborn. Dearborn is and has been usually democrat and the home of Dingell. Bush did win it however in 2000. Then the Iraq War happened. Dearborn is about 40% Middle Eastern (not all Muslim), mostly in the Eastern end. Western Dearborn is largely white ethnic. It’s Ford HQ, and has a mix of union and auto executives. In 2004, Kerry flipped it in a big way getting 58%. McCain and Romney cratered here. Romney did worse than McCain. Obama got 65% in 2008 and 66% in 2012. Obviously a lot work needs to be done.

This district does what it was intended to do. It packs democrats. Rob Steele made a good run at a similar district in 2010, but was unable to counter the traditions. What we need to do here is get the best we can get and try and pick off a state rep district here and there like the far downriver seat in 2010. We need to cut down the margins of dem victory here and make up the ground in other districts. 

MI-12	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Washtenaw County
Ann Arbor	11008	46198	58112	-35190	18.94%	79.50%
Ann Arbor Twp	903	1678	2601	-775	34.72%	64.51%
Pittsfield Twp	5414	10881	16481	-5467	32.85%	66.02%
Scio Twp 3	354	693	1057	-339	33.49%	65.56%
Scio 4	377	720	1101	-343	34.24%	65.40%
Scio 7	505	1254	1779	-749	28.39%	70.49%
Scio 8	579	1056	1650	-477	35.09%	64.00%
Scio 9	386	881	1275	-495	30.27%	69.10%
Superior Twp	2218	4681	6941	-2463	31.96%	67.44%
Ypsilanti	1205	6980	8349	-5775	14.43%	83.60%
Ypsilanti Twp	6264	18915	25478	-12651	24.59%	74.24%
Total	29213	93937	124824	-64724	23.40%	75.26%
Wayne County
Allen Park	6769	8189	15115	-1420	44.78%	54.18%
Belleville	657	1168	1841	-511	35.69%	63.44%
Brownstown Twp	5665	8234	14014	-2569	40.42%	58.76%
Dearborn	12732	26266	39415	-13534	32.30%	66.64%
Dearborn Hghts 24	327	463	797	-136	41.03%	58.09%
DH 25	301	585	895	-284	33.63%	65.36%
DH 26	301	449	763	-148	39.45%	58.85%
DH 27	286	501	796	-215	35.93%	62.94%
DH 911AV	468	542	1021	-74	45.84%	53.09%
Flat Rock	1833	2459	4338	-626	42.25%	56.69%
Gibralter	1121	1233	2387	-112	46.96%	51.65%
Grosse Ile	4311	2597	6937	1714	62.15%	37.44%
Huron Twp	3785	3648	7513	137	50.38%	48.56%
Lincoln Park	4368	9570	14107	-5202	30.96%	67.84%
Riverview	2660	3394	6101	-734	43.60%	55.63%
Rockwood	650	877	1545	-227	42.07%	56.76%
Southgate	5211	8816	14164	-3605	36.79%	62.24%
Sumpter Twp	1751	2498	4297	-747	40.75%	58.13%
Taylor	8607	16143	24999	-7536	34.43%	64.57%
Trenton	4905	5323	10320	-418	47.53%	51.58%
Van Buren Twp	2529	6658	9256	-4129	27.32%	71.93%
Woodhaven	2843	3536	6438	-693	44.16%	54.92%
Wyandotte	4555	7325	12041	-2770	37.83%	60.83%
Total	76635	120474	199100	-43839	38.49%	60.51%
Total	105848	214411	323924	-108563	32.68%	66.19%

Congressional District 12 - Redistricted (MI-12)

Incumbent - John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 57
The old 12th district information is here.
This district is descended from the old 15th district.

Challengers -  Cynthia Kallgren (R-Wyandotte)

Updated 8-30-2012 - Kallgren won her primary. Dingell won his. 

Update 5-16-2012 - This could be interesting to watch. Marcin is a 26 year old East Coast transplant to Ann Arbor where he's a grad student. Ann Arbor (and east coast) dems are a different culture than the Downriver/Dearborn labor democrats which Dingell represents. One of the big clashes is on the auto industry. Jacobsen seems to be giving this a district an actual campaign, much like Dr Rob Steele did in 2010. The problem for Jacobsen is no Monroe County to help if it swings against the dems like it did in 2010. The rest of downriver is tougher territory. Romulus and Inkster are gone though which helps.

Michigan lost a congressional district, so there is no more 15th district. The old 15th district is basically now the 12th. What is mostly the old 12th district is now the 9th. I'm going to analyze this district as it is came from the 15th. This is still John Dingell's district.

This district is similar, although it changed some. It gave up Augusta and York Townships, as well as the City of Milan to Tim Walberg. It picks up 1/2 of Scio Township instead. That's the change in Washtenaw County. Monroe County goes to Walberg. In Wayne county, almost all of downriver goes back to Dingell outside of Melvindale, River Rouge, and Ecorse. He also gets the rest of Dearborn. Romulus and Inkster go to Hansen Clarke. He picks up Van Buren Twp and Belleville from Thad McCotter. This is "new territory" for the district, but not for Dingell who represented downriver for years.  This district is also a lot bluer. Monroe County was a swing area and it's gone. Downriver is mostly democrat, and the added portions to this district like Eastern Dearborn, Lincoln Park and Southgate are blue sinks. The old district had about a 73000 vote spread for Kerry and 115000 for Obama. The new district was about 81000 and 122000. Rob Steele gave Dingell his toughest test in years, but lost his best area and has about a 32000 vote deficit in the new region. I didn't include the small Dearborn Heights portion since about 90% of it is in Clarke's district.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	10712	51587	62299	-40875	17.19%	82.81%	-65.61%
Ann Arbor Twp	829	1836	2665	-1007	31.11%	68.89%	-37.79%
Pittsfield Twp	5042	11342	16384	-6300	30.77%	69.23%	-38.45%
Scio Twp (1/2)	1886	3355	5241	-1469	35.99%	64.01%	-28.03%
Superior Twp	2048	4951	6999	-2903	29.26%	70.74%	-41.48%
Ypsilanti City	1308	7828	9136	-6520	14.32%	85.68%	-71.37%
Ypsilanti Twp	6517	19579	26096	-13062	24.97%	75.03%	-50.05%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park	6941	8705	15646	-1764	44.36%	55.64%	-11.27%
Belleville City	733	1315	2048	-582	35.79%	64.21%	-28.42%
Brownstown Twp	5373	8668	14041	-3295	38.27%	61.73%	-23.47%
Dearborn	13761	27253	41014	-13492	33.55%	66.45%	-32.90%
Flat Rock	1807	2504	4311	-697	41.92%	58.08%	-16.17%
Gibralter	1132	1313	2445	-181	46.30%	53.70%	-7.40%
Grosse Ile	4023	2859	6882	1164	58.46%	41.54%	16.91%
Huron Twp	3669	3852	7521	-183	48.78%	51.22%	-2.43%
Lincoln Park	5080	10848	15928	-5768	31.89%	68.11%	-36.21%
Riverview	2652	3832	6484	-1180	40.90%	59.10%	-18.20%
Rockwood	678	900	1578	-222	42.97%	57.03%	-14.07%
Southgate	5509	9500	15009	-3991	36.70%	63.30%	-26.59%
Sumpter Twp	1696	2961	4657	-1265	36.42%	63.58%	-27.16%
Taylor	9224	17264	26488	-8040	34.82%	65.18%	-30.35%
Trenton	4908	5957	10865	-1049	45.17%	54.83%	-9.65%
Van Buren Twp	4375	9703	14078	-5328	31.08%	68.92%	-37.85%
Woodhaven	2836	3781	6617	-945	42.86%	57.14%	-14.28%
Wyandotte	4822	8200	13022	-3378	37.03%	62.97%	-25.94%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	107561	229893	337454	-122332	31.87%	68.13%	-36.25%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	13153	45117	58270	-31964	22.57%	77.43%	-54.85%
Ann Arbor Twp	1083	1787	2870	-704	37.74%	62.26%	-24.53%
Pittsfield Twp	5839	9271	15110	-3432	38.64%	61.36%	-22.71%
Scio Twp (1/2)	2122	3132	5254	-1010	40.39%	59.61%	-19.22%
Superior Twp	2227	3948	6175	-1721	36.06%	63.94%	-27.87%
Ypsilanti City	1581	6046	7627	-4465	20.73%	79.27%	-58.54%
Ypsilanti Twp	7887	16240	24127	-8353	32.69%	67.31%	-34.62%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park	7738	8575	16313	-837	47.43%	52.57%	-5.13%
Belleville City	856	1131	1987	-275	43.08%	56.92%	-13.84%
Brownstown Twp	5369	6916	12285	-1547	43.70%	56.30%	-12.59%
Dearborn	16686	24456	41142	-7770	40.56%	59.44%	-18.89%
Flat Rock	1917	2233	4150	-316	46.19%	53.81%	-7.61%
Gibralter	1186	1271	2457	-85	48.27%	51.73%	-3.46%
Grosse Ile	4435	2594	7029	1841	63.10%	36.90%	26.19%
Huron Twp	3578	3417	6995	161	51.15%	48.85%	2.30%
Lincoln Park	5843	10921	16764	-5078	34.85%	65.15%	-30.29%
Riverview	3095	3665	6760	-570	45.78%	54.22%	-8.43%
Rockwood	759	948	1707	-189	44.46%	55.54%	-11.07%
Southgate	6048	9046	15094	-2998	40.07%	59.93%	-19.86%
Sumpter Twp	1979	2963	4942	-984	40.04%	59.96%	-19.91%
Taylor	10444	16377	26821	-5933	38.94%	61.06%	-22.12%
Trenton	5495	5778	11273	-283	48.74%	51.26%	-2.51%
Van Buren Twp	4993	7353	12346	-2360	40.44%	59.56%	-19.12%
Woodhaven	3076	3380	6456	-304	47.65%	52.35%	-4.71%
Wyandotte	5451	7935	13386	-2484	40.72%	59.28%	-18.56%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	122840	204500	327340	-81660	37.53%	62.47%	-24.95%
	Steele	Dingell	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	8242	28027	36269	-19785	22.72%	77.28%	-54.55%
Ann Arbor Twp	783	1133	1916	-350	40.87%	59.13%	-18.27%
Pittsfield Twp	4264	5815	10079	-1551	42.31%	57.69%	-15.39%
Scio Twp (1/2)	154	177	331	-23	46.53%	53.47%	-6.95%
Superior Twp	1864	2800	4664	-936	39.97%	60.03%	-20.07%
Ypsilanti City	942	3655	4597	-2713	20.49%	79.51%	-59.02%
Ypsilanti Twp	5108	10379	15487	-5271	32.98%	67.02%	-34.03%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Belleville City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Twp	4058	4232	8290	-174	48.95%	51.05%	-2.10%
Dearborn	6455	6353	12808	102	50.40%	49.60%	0.80%
Flat Rock	1351	1274	2625	77	51.47%	48.53%	2.93%
Gibralter			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grosse Ile			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Huron Twp	2839	1956	4795	883	59.21%	40.79%	18.42%
Lincoln Park			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Riverview			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Rockwood	484	533	1017	-49	47.59%	52.41%	-4.82%
Southgate			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Sumpter Twp	1218	1495	2713	-277	44.89%	55.11%	-10.21%
Taylor	6034	8512	14546	-2478	41.48%	58.52%	-17.04%
Trenton			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Van Buren Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Woodhaven			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Wyandotte			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	43796	76341	120137	-32545	36.46%	63.54%	-27.09%

Congressional District 9 - Redistricting (MI-09)

Incumbents - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp) and Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak/Roseville) - Peters is running in the 14th District.
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2 and 30

Challengers - Don Volaric (R-Clinton Twp)

Update 8-30-2012 - Volaric won his primary and will be facing Levin. Peters won the primary in the 14th District. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Volaric is seeking a 12th district rematch with Levin. Dildillian is running as well.

The old 9th district was practically eliminated. It was divided up and parts were given to Mike Rogers, Thad McCotter, John Conyers, and Sander Levin. This is really more of a descendant of the old 12th district. The new 12th district is a combination of the old 15th and 1990's era 16th districts of John Dingell.

I'm going to analyze this district from the perspective of this being the 12th and Sander Levin's district since this is much more his district than Peters. Levin long represented SE Oakland County, and has also had SW Macomb county for years as well. He can move back to Royal Oak for this district too.

Levin gives up the City of Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township to John Conyers. He picks up Berkley, Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Southfield Township (Bingham Farms/Franklin), part of Clawson, and Bloomfield Township from the old 9th district. The district still splits Sterling Heights and has about 2/3 of it. Gary Peters is in this district as well. Peters has several options. He can run for Oakland County executive as rumored, or against Levin, McCotter, Conyers, or Rogers (he was once city council in Rochester Hills).

This district, like the old 12th is a blue sink. It's not as much of one as the old 12th since the bluest part went to John Conyers. It's gone from an approximate 68000 Kerry and 104000 Obama vote spread to "closer" numbers of about 26000 and 66000 vote spreads. It's still out of reach outside of a best case scenario (1980 Reagan) but a district I'd look to contest in a year like 2010. Tory Rocca might be able to win this district in a 2010 type of year. It'd be a longshot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. If lesser known Don Volaric can hold Levin to about a 20000 vote spread in this portion of the district, then Rocca could probably at least cut that in half without a lot of trouble....in a 2010 year.

Overall though, my money is on Levin holding this district if he doesn't want to retire at 81. Peters won't sell in Warren, and Levin will trump him in the Huntington Woods types of areas. Even if Levin retires, one of many strong South Macomb democrats may want to go after Peters in a primary and would have a good shot, especially if he had a Polish or Italian last name.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1431	2462	3893	-1031	36.76%	63.24%	-26.48%
Clinton Twp	21133	27722	48855	-6589	43.26%	56.74%	-13.49%
Eastpointe	4670	11182	15852	-6512	29.46%	70.54%	-41.08%
Fraser	3601	4161	7762	-560	46.39%	53.61%	-7.21%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	27	13	40	14	67.50%	32.50%	35.00%
Mt Clemens	2393	5171	7564	-2778	31.64%	68.36%	-36.73%
Roseville	7679	13739	21418	-6060	35.85%	64.15%	-28.29%
St Clair Shores	16098	18531	34629	-2433	46.49%	53.51%	-7.03%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	18157	21126	39283	-2969	46.22%	53.78%	-7.56%
Warren	24006	36901	60907	-12895	39.41%	60.59%	-21.17%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley	3560	5715	9275	-2155	38.38%	61.62%	-23.23%
Bloomfield Twp	14368	12886	27254	1482	52.72%	47.28%	5.44%
Clawson (1/5)	600	782	1382	-182	43.42%	56.58%	-13.17%
Ferndale	2621	8532	11153	-5911	23.50%	76.50%	-53.00%
Hazel Park	2279	4461	6740	-2182	33.81%	66.19%	-32.37%
Huntington Woods	1041	3255	4296	-2214	24.23%	75.77%	-51.54%
Madison Heights	5088	8017	13105	-2929	38.82%	61.18%	-22.35%
Pleasant Ridge	512	1311	1823	-799	28.09%	71.91%	-43.83%
Royal Oak	13094	21650	34744	-8556	37.69%	62.31%	-24.63%
Southfield Twp	4570	4925	9495	-355	48.13%	51.87%	-3.74%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	146928	212542	359470	-65614	40.87%	59.13%	-18.25%
2004
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1613	2312	3925	-699	41.10%	58.90%	-17.81%
Clinton Twp	23332	23842	47174	-510	49.46%	50.54%	-1.08%
Eastpointe	5838	9766	15604	-3928	37.41%	62.59%	-25.17%
Fraser	3893	3959	7852	-66	49.58%	50.42%	-0.84%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	33	15	48	18	68.75%	31.25%	37.50%
Mt Clemens	2766	4419	7185	-1653	38.50%	61.50%	-23.01%
Roseville	8660	12738	21398	-4078	40.47%	59.53%	-19.06%
St Clair Shores	17512	18088	35600	-576	49.19%	50.81%	-1.62%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	20385	18941	39326	1444	51.84%	48.16%	3.67%
Warren	26991	34697	61688	-7706	43.75%	56.25%	-12.49%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley	4315	5027	9342	-712	46.19%	53.81%	-7.62%
Bloomfield Twp	16314	11197	27511	5117	59.30%	40.70%	18.60%
Clawson (1/5)	716	694	1410	22	50.78%	49.22%	1.56%
Ferndale	3456	7637	11093	-4181	31.15%	68.85%	-37.69%
Hazel Park	2780	4412	7192	-1632	38.65%	61.35%	-22.69%
Huntington Woods	1236	3068	4304	-1832	28.72%	71.28%	-42.57%
Madison Heights	5934	7443	13377	-1509	44.36%	55.64%	-11.28%
Pleasant Ridge	658	1140	1798	-482	36.60%	63.40%	-26.81%
Royal Oak	15529	19143	34672	-3614	44.79%	55.21%	-10.42%
Southfield Twp	5245	4376	9621	869	54.52%	45.48%	9.03%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	167206	192914	360120	-25708	46.43%	53.57%	-7.14%
	Volaric	Levin	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	876	1405	2281	-529	38.40%	61.60%	-23.19%
Clinton Twp	14475	14784	29259	-309	49.47%	50.53%	-1.06%
Eastpointe	2859	6438	9297	-3579	30.75%	69.25%	-38.50%
Fraser	2423	2345	4768	78	50.82%	49.18%	1.64%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	21	12	33	9	63.64%	36.36%	27.27%
Mt Clemens	1597	2785	4382	-1188	36.44%	63.56%	-27.11%
Roseville	4663	7051	11714	-2388	39.81%	60.19%	-20.39%
St Clair Shores	11182	11898	23080	-716	48.45%	51.55%	-3.10%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	5003	5385	10388	-382	48.16%	51.84%	-3.68%
Warren	15443	20860	36303	-5417	42.54%	57.46%	-14.92%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bloomfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Clawson (1/5)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferndale	1649	4693	6342	-3044	26.00%	74.00%	-48.00%
Hazel Park	1263	2034	3297	-771	38.31%	61.69%	-23.38%
Huntington Woods	763	2440	3203	-1677	23.82%	76.18%	-52.36%
Madison Heights	3240	4089	7329	-849	44.21%	55.79%	-11.58%
Pleasant Ridge	403	930	1333	-527	30.23%	69.77%	-39.53%
Royal Oak	732	1148	1880	-416	38.94%	61.06%	-22.13%
Southfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	66592	88297	154889	-21705	42.99%	57.01%	-14.01%