Thursday, June 30, 2011

Congressional District 9 - Redistricting (MI-09)


Incumbents - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp) and Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak/Roseville) - Peters is running in the 14th District.
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2 and 30

Challengers - Don Volaric (R-Clinton Twp)

Update 8-30-2012 - Volaric won his primary and will be facing Levin. Peters won the primary in the 14th District. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Volaric is seeking a 12th district rematch with Levin. Dildillian is running as well.

The old 9th district was practically eliminated. It was divided up and parts were given to Mike Rogers, Thad McCotter, John Conyers, and Sander Levin. This is really more of a descendant of the old 12th district. The new 12th district is a combination of the old 15th and 1990's era 16th districts of John Dingell.

I'm going to analyze this district from the perspective of this being the 12th and Sander Levin's district since this is much more his district than Peters. Levin long represented SE Oakland County, and has also had SW Macomb county for years as well. He can move back to Royal Oak for this district too.

Levin gives up the City of Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township to John Conyers. He picks up Berkley, Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Southfield Township (Bingham Farms/Franklin), part of Clawson, and Bloomfield Township from the old 9th district. The district still splits Sterling Heights and has about 2/3 of it. Gary Peters is in this district as well. Peters has several options. He can run for Oakland County executive as rumored, or against Levin, McCotter, Conyers, or Rogers (he was once city council in Rochester Hills).

This district, like the old 12th is a blue sink. It's not as much of one as the old 12th since the bluest part went to John Conyers. It's gone from an approximate 68000 Kerry and 104000 Obama vote spread to "closer" numbers of about 26000 and 66000 vote spreads. It's still out of reach outside of a best case scenario (1980 Reagan) but a district I'd look to contest in a year like 2010. Tory Rocca might be able to win this district in a 2010 type of year. It'd be a longshot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. If lesser known Don Volaric can hold Levin to about a 20000 vote spread in this portion of the district, then Rocca could probably at least cut that in half without a lot of trouble....in a 2010 year.

Overall though, my money is on Levin holding this district if he doesn't want to retire at 81. Peters won't sell in Warren, and Levin will trump him in the Huntington Woods types of areas. Even if Levin retires, one of many strong South Macomb democrats may want to go after Peters in a primary and would have a good shot, especially if he had a Polish or Italian last name.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1431 2462 3893 -1031 36.76% 63.24% -26.48%
Clinton Twp 21133 27722 48855 -6589 43.26% 56.74% -13.49%
Eastpointe 4670 11182 15852 -6512 29.46% 70.54% -41.08%
Fraser 3601 4161 7762 -560 46.39% 53.61% -7.21%
Lake Twp/GP Shores 27 13 40 14 67.50% 32.50% 35.00%
Mt Clemens 2393 5171 7564 -2778 31.64% 68.36% -36.73%
Roseville 7679 13739 21418 -6060 35.85% 64.15% -28.29%
St Clair Shores 16098 18531 34629 -2433 46.49% 53.51% -7.03%
Sterling Hghts (2/3) 18157 21126 39283 -2969 46.22% 53.78% -7.56%
Warren 24006 36901 60907 -12895 39.41% 60.59% -21.17%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Berkley 3560 5715 9275 -2155 38.38% 61.62% -23.23%
Bloomfield Twp 14368 12886 27254 1482 52.72% 47.28% 5.44%
Clawson (1/5) 600 782 1382 -182 43.42% 56.58% -13.17%
Ferndale 2621 8532 11153 -5911 23.50% 76.50% -53.00%
Hazel Park 2279 4461 6740 -2182 33.81% 66.19% -32.37%
Huntington Woods 1041 3255 4296 -2214 24.23% 75.77% -51.54%
Madison Heights 5088 8017 13105 -2929 38.82% 61.18% -22.35%
Pleasant Ridge 512 1311 1823 -799 28.09% 71.91% -43.83%
Royal Oak 13094 21650 34744 -8556 37.69% 62.31% -24.63%
Southfield Twp 4570 4925 9495 -355 48.13% 51.87% -3.74%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 146928 212542 359470 -65614 40.87% 59.13% -18.25%








2004







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1613 2312 3925 -699 41.10% 58.90% -17.81%
Clinton Twp 23332 23842 47174 -510 49.46% 50.54% -1.08%
Eastpointe 5838 9766 15604 -3928 37.41% 62.59% -25.17%
Fraser 3893 3959 7852 -66 49.58% 50.42% -0.84%
Lake Twp/GP Shores 33 15 48 18 68.75% 31.25% 37.50%
Mt Clemens 2766 4419 7185 -1653 38.50% 61.50% -23.01%
Roseville 8660 12738 21398 -4078 40.47% 59.53% -19.06%
St Clair Shores 17512 18088 35600 -576 49.19% 50.81% -1.62%
Sterling Hghts (2/3) 20385 18941 39326 1444 51.84% 48.16% 3.67%
Warren 26991 34697 61688 -7706 43.75% 56.25% -12.49%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Berkley 4315 5027 9342 -712 46.19% 53.81% -7.62%
Bloomfield Twp 16314 11197 27511 5117 59.30% 40.70% 18.60%
Clawson (1/5) 716 694 1410 22 50.78% 49.22% 1.56%
Ferndale 3456 7637 11093 -4181 31.15% 68.85% -37.69%
Hazel Park 2780 4412 7192 -1632 38.65% 61.35% -22.69%
Huntington Woods 1236 3068 4304 -1832 28.72% 71.28% -42.57%
Madison Heights 5934 7443 13377 -1509 44.36% 55.64% -11.28%
Pleasant Ridge 658 1140 1798 -482 36.60% 63.40% -26.81%
Royal Oak 15529 19143 34672 -3614 44.79% 55.21% -10.42%
Southfield Twp 5245 4376 9621 869 54.52% 45.48% 9.03%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 167206 192914 360120 -25708 46.43% 53.57% -7.14%









Volaric Levin Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 876 1405 2281 -529 38.40% 61.60% -23.19%
Clinton Twp 14475 14784 29259 -309 49.47% 50.53% -1.06%
Eastpointe 2859 6438 9297 -3579 30.75% 69.25% -38.50%
Fraser 2423 2345 4768 78 50.82% 49.18% 1.64%
Lake Twp/GP Shores 21 12 33 9 63.64% 36.36% 27.27%
Mt Clemens 1597 2785 4382 -1188 36.44% 63.56% -27.11%
Roseville 4663 7051 11714 -2388 39.81% 60.19% -20.39%
St Clair Shores 11182 11898 23080 -716 48.45% 51.55% -3.10%
Sterling Hghts (2/3) 5003 5385 10388 -382 48.16% 51.84% -3.68%
Warren 15443 20860 36303 -5417 42.54% 57.46% -14.92%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Berkley

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bloomfield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Clawson (1/5)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ferndale 1649 4693 6342 -3044 26.00% 74.00% -48.00%
Hazel Park 1263 2034 3297 -771 38.31% 61.69% -23.38%
Huntington Woods 763 2440 3203 -1677 23.82% 76.18% -52.36%
Madison Heights 3240 4089 7329 -849 44.21% 55.79% -11.58%
Pleasant Ridge 403 930 1333 -527 30.23% 69.77% -39.53%
Royal Oak 732 1148 1880 -416 38.94% 61.06% -22.13%
Southfield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 66592 88297 154889 -21705 42.99% 57.01% -14.01%

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