Congressional District 9 (MI-09) - Updated

Update 2014:
There will be no primary. Ron Paul Republican George Brikho is battling Sander Levin.

MI-09 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Sander Levin  (D-Royal Oak)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 32

Challengers – George Brikho (R-Sterling Heights)

2012:

Don Volaric – 114760 – 34.02%

Sander Levin  – 208846 – 61.91%

-94086  vote difference

Romney – 146185 votes – 41.80%

Obama – 171684 votes – 57.06%

-53380 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Sterling Hghts/Clawson reprecincted)

McCain – 40.38% (slightly lower)

Obama –  57.76% (slightly higher)

2004: (approx)

Bush – 46.62% (Slightly lower)

Kerry – 52.71% (slightly higher)

Notes – Clawson and Sterling Heights Reprecincted. About 2/3 of Sterling Heights is in the 9^th, with the rest in the 10^th. Sterling Heights overall is about 1% less dem than the portion in MI-10.  As Sterling Heights is the 4^th largest city in Michigan (Warren is 3^rd), that throws off the vote spreads in 2008 and 2004, so I didn’t include them. I used all of Sterling Heights, including the 10^th District portion, in the 2004/2008 numbers.

Outside of a miracle year for us, this is a safe democrat district even if Sander Levin retires with his brother, likely getting safer with migration. Redistricting made this district less democrat than it was, but not enough to put this in play. It was meant to keep Peters from going for the 11^th District and was a little overly cautious IMO.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, 7, and 8.

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

2004

 

Starting with Oakland County, Bloomfield Township is the odd municipality out. It’s the home of Gary Peters, but a Republican area. Romney grew up either here or in next door Bloomfield Hills (in MI-11). Bush (58%) did better than Romney (57%) here, and McCain didn’t do well here barely winning it with 52%. South of there is Southfield Township, except nobody outside of election result followers call it Southfield Township. Southfield Township has nothing to do with Southfield outside of being a neighbor. It is the combination of three villages - Bingham Farms. Franklin, and Beverly Hills. They are all highly affluent areas. Bingham Farms is largely office buildings along Telegraph. Southfield Township leans slightly Republican, although Obama won it in 08. East of there are the “slateblue” colored Royal Oak, Berkley, and Madison Heights. They are all bluing areas (and yuppie in Royal Oak and Berkley’s case), although Romney controlled the bleeding some. Bush kept them all under 55% in 04, but Bush did worse there in 04 than in 2000 unlike most of the state.  Obama cracked 60% in Royal Oak and Berkley (and 59% in Madison Heights) back in 08. Romney cut the vote spread deficit from 8500 to 6000 in Royal Oak and 2150 to 1700 in Berkley. It was 3600 and 712 for Bush who was not a cultural fit at all for Royal Oak and Berkley. Madison Heights is trouble. Romney improved his percentage from 38 to 39% there, but had less raw votes than McCain. I haven’t figured that city out.

The major dem base here is the SE end. Huntington Woods is south of Berkley. It’s possibly the most socially liberal part of Michigan outside of Ann Arbor. Romney actually did better than Bush here with 28.79% and 1240 votes. McCain had 24.02%.  Pleasant Ridge next door isn’t much different except less Jewish. Romney didn’t do as well as Bush here, but better than McCain - 31.59% for Romney to 27.61% McCain and 36.23% Bush. Ferndale next door is the gay capital of SE Michigan. It’s also gaining blacks from Detroit with migration. It took Huntington Woods and became the most dem part of Oakland County that isn’t minority-majority. Romney did worse than McCain here in both raw votes and percentage. 67.87% Kerry, 74.85% Obama 08 and 75.96% Obama 12. Hazel Park is either getting influenced by Ferndale or Detroit. It was historically blue collar white. It’s going the same way as Ferndale. 60.62% Kerry. 64.56% Obama 08 and 66.52% Obama 12. The pundits love to talk about the “moderate” in Oakland County voters. This area (like MI-08 for opposite reasons) isn’t it. You have more of that in parts of MI-11.

The majority of this district is in Southern Macomb County. It’s also democrat, although a much different type of democrat than you’ll get in Ferndale or downtown Royal Oak. It’s UAW country. Southern Macomb County is also changing in migration. It showed in the election results of Warren, Center Line, Roseville (which long had an established black population) and Eastpointe. Obama did better by percentage in all of those areas in 2012 than in 2008. That’s due to black migration in, and white migration out.  It’s not just Polish and Italian there anymore. Warren – 55.60% Kerry, 59.34% Obama, 61.19% Obama. Center Line 58.21% Kerry, 61.78% Obama, 63.02% Obama. Roseville 59% Kerry, 62.81% Obama, 63.57% Obama. Eastpointe 61.87% Kerry, 69.05% Obama, 73.82% Obama. Eastpointe will likely be black majority in five years. East of there is St Clair Shores which is still heavily white ethnic. Romney lost raw votes there but gained a percentage point over McCain. It’s been very stable in presidential elections ranging between 50-52% dem. It’s more social conservative. In the SE Corner is a small portion of Grosse Pt Shores. It used to be Lake Township and was annexed. That’s the firebrick spot in the corner.

Northwest of there is Sterling Heights, an area to watch. Bush won it twice narrowly overall. I’m not sure if he won the portion in the district. It was real close. Romney lost it narrowly as Obama got 50.4% overall and 51.35% in the district portion. It’s long been a swing area with a mix of white ethnics (Poles, Germans and Italians), Chaldeans, Middle Eastern Christians, and a gaining Indian and black (less so than Warren) population.  It’s an area Republicans need to win back at the top of the ticket to be competitive in Michigan.

East of there is Fraser, Clinton Township and Mt Clemens. Fraser is competitive, but leans labor dem. It’s usually close. Mt Clemens is dem, and has until recently been the most democrat part of Macomb County. It’s Bonior country. It’s shrinking population and Romney had less raw votes there than McCain although gained in percentage. Obama still got 66% there twice due to labor and minorities. Clinton Township is erratic with some base areas on both sides. Overall it leans democrat, but there are some bigtime R precincts there as well as bigtime D precincts there. The eastern part of the township is bigtime dem due to labor and minorities. The western part is more republican leaning. Bush almost took it in 2004, but it wasn’t that close for Obama. Was that due to a higher turnout in the eastern part of the township? I don’t know. It’s an area we need to reduce our margins in to compete statewide.

This district was intended to be a blue sink and it does its job there. Berkley, Pontiac, Farmington Hills, and Royal Oak were Knollenberg’s downfall. Royal Oak and Berkley are now here. SE Macomb was put here to push Bonior’s retirement/gubernatorial run. Bonior ran big in St Clair Shores and Easpointe. R’s don’t need to win the district to be competitive statewide, but need to come close. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and St Clair Shores are three major keys. Those areas need to be won to win statewide. It’s been done, so it’s not impossible. Congressionally, the only one I see with a chance (and an outside one) with the right opponent is Tory Rocca who is a state senator who won a district he had no business winning in 2010. (Roseville, Sterling Heights, Frasier, Clinton Twp, Utica). Unless I see a 2010 year and a matchup like that, this is safe dem. 

District 9	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Macomb County
Center Line	1293	2284	3624	-991	35.68%	63.02%
Clinton Twp	21369	25678	47455	-4309	45.03%	54.11%
Eastpointe	3829	11303	15311	-7474	25.01%	73.82%
Fraser	3616	3946	7645	-330	47.30%	51.62%
Grosse Pt Shores (pt)	32	10	42	22	76.19%	23.81%
Mt Clemens	2270	4615	6982	-2345	32.51%	66.10%
Roseville	6993	12736	20035	-5743	34.90%	63.57%
St Clair Shores	15903	16991	33308	-1088	47.75%	51.01%
Sterling Hghts 1	419	559	1024	-140	40.92%	54.59%
SH 2	686	891	1590	-205	43.14%	56.04%
SH 3	727	1023	1763	-296	41.24%	58.03%
SH 4	852	1060	1931	-208	44.12%	54.89%
SH 5	761	1036	1812	-275	42.00%	57.17%
SH 6	547	511	1066	36	51.31%	47.94%
SH 7	776	850	1640	-74	47.32%	51.83%
SH 8	630	553	1193	77	52.81%	46.35%
SH 9	358	364	734	-6	48.77%	49.59%
SH 10	759	761	1527	-2	49.71%	49.84%
SH 11	462	459	931	3	49.62%	49.30%
SH 12	764	809	1583	-45	48.26%	51.11%
SH 13	490	618	1121	-128	43.71%	55.13%
SH 14	372	598	985	-226	37.77%	60.71%
SH 15	505	436	949	69	53.21%	45.94%
SH 16	512	574	1095	-62	46.76%	52.42%
SH 17	530	537	1080	-7	49.07%	49.72%
SH 18	691	715	1418	-24	48.73%	50.42%
SH 19	743	958	1731	-215	42.92%	55.34%
SH 20	725	756	1496	-31	48.46%	50.53%
SH 21	398	437	844	-39	47.16%	51.78%
SH 22	564	624	1198	-60	47.08%	52.09%
SH 23	585	517	1117	68	52.37%	46.28%
SH 24	549	559	1118	-10	49.11%	50.00%
SH 25	879	880	1785	-1	49.24%	49.30%
SH 26	1028	683	1721	345	59.73%	39.69%
SH 27	794	709	1525	85	52.07%	46.49%
SH 28	662	569	1245	93	53.17%	45.70%
SH 31	328	464	801	-136	40.95%	57.93%
SH 32	209	369	582	-160	35.91%	63.40%
SH 33	573	502	1089	71	52.62%	46.10%
Warren	22110	35830	58554	-13720	37.76%	61.19%
Total	96293	133774	232650	-37481	41.39%	57.50%
Oakland County
Berkley	3648	5348	9117	-1700	40.01%	58.66%
Bloomfield Twp	15811	11734	27710	4077	57.06%	42.35%
Clawson 1	767	946	1737	-179	44.16%	54.46%
Ferndale	2259	7809	10281	-5550	21.97%	75.96%
Hazel Park	1937	4055	6096	-2118	31.77%	66.52%
Huntington Woods	1240	3037	4307	-1797	28.79%	70.51%
Madison Heights	4774	7197	12154	-2423	39.28%	59.22%
Pleasant Ridge	574	1226	1817	-652	31.59%	67.47%
Royal Oak	13866	19911	34256	-6045	40.48%	58.12%
Southfield Twp	5016	4528	9599	488	52.26%	47.17%
Total	49892	65791	117074	-15899	42.62%	56.20%
Total All	146185	199565	349724	-53380	41.80%	57.06%

Congressional District 9 - Redistricting (MI-09)

Incumbents - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp) and Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak/Roseville) - Peters is running in the 14th District.
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2 and 30

Challengers - Don Volaric (R-Clinton Twp)

Update 8-30-2012 - Volaric won his primary and will be facing Levin. Peters won the primary in the 14th District. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Volaric is seeking a 12th district rematch with Levin. Dildillian is running as well.

The old 9th district was practically eliminated. It was divided up and parts were given to Mike Rogers, Thad McCotter, John Conyers, and Sander Levin. This is really more of a descendant of the old 12th district. The new 12th district is a combination of the old 15th and 1990's era 16th districts of John Dingell.

I'm going to analyze this district from the perspective of this being the 12th and Sander Levin's district since this is much more his district than Peters. Levin long represented SE Oakland County, and has also had SW Macomb county for years as well. He can move back to Royal Oak for this district too.

Levin gives up the City of Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township to John Conyers. He picks up Berkley, Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Southfield Township (Bingham Farms/Franklin), part of Clawson, and Bloomfield Township from the old 9th district. The district still splits Sterling Heights and has about 2/3 of it. Gary Peters is in this district as well. Peters has several options. He can run for Oakland County executive as rumored, or against Levin, McCotter, Conyers, or Rogers (he was once city council in Rochester Hills).

This district, like the old 12th is a blue sink. It's not as much of one as the old 12th since the bluest part went to John Conyers. It's gone from an approximate 68000 Kerry and 104000 Obama vote spread to "closer" numbers of about 26000 and 66000 vote spreads. It's still out of reach outside of a best case scenario (1980 Reagan) but a district I'd look to contest in a year like 2010. Tory Rocca might be able to win this district in a 2010 type of year. It'd be a longshot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. If lesser known Don Volaric can hold Levin to about a 20000 vote spread in this portion of the district, then Rocca could probably at least cut that in half without a lot of trouble....in a 2010 year.

Overall though, my money is on Levin holding this district if he doesn't want to retire at 81. Peters won't sell in Warren, and Levin will trump him in the Huntington Woods types of areas. Even if Levin retires, one of many strong South Macomb democrats may want to go after Peters in a primary and would have a good shot, especially if he had a Polish or Italian last name.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1431	2462	3893	-1031	36.76%	63.24%	-26.48%
Clinton Twp	21133	27722	48855	-6589	43.26%	56.74%	-13.49%
Eastpointe	4670	11182	15852	-6512	29.46%	70.54%	-41.08%
Fraser	3601	4161	7762	-560	46.39%	53.61%	-7.21%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	27	13	40	14	67.50%	32.50%	35.00%
Mt Clemens	2393	5171	7564	-2778	31.64%	68.36%	-36.73%
Roseville	7679	13739	21418	-6060	35.85%	64.15%	-28.29%
St Clair Shores	16098	18531	34629	-2433	46.49%	53.51%	-7.03%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	18157	21126	39283	-2969	46.22%	53.78%	-7.56%
Warren	24006	36901	60907	-12895	39.41%	60.59%	-21.17%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley	3560	5715	9275	-2155	38.38%	61.62%	-23.23%
Bloomfield Twp	14368	12886	27254	1482	52.72%	47.28%	5.44%
Clawson (1/5)	600	782	1382	-182	43.42%	56.58%	-13.17%
Ferndale	2621	8532	11153	-5911	23.50%	76.50%	-53.00%
Hazel Park	2279	4461	6740	-2182	33.81%	66.19%	-32.37%
Huntington Woods	1041	3255	4296	-2214	24.23%	75.77%	-51.54%
Madison Heights	5088	8017	13105	-2929	38.82%	61.18%	-22.35%
Pleasant Ridge	512	1311	1823	-799	28.09%	71.91%	-43.83%
Royal Oak	13094	21650	34744	-8556	37.69%	62.31%	-24.63%
Southfield Twp	4570	4925	9495	-355	48.13%	51.87%	-3.74%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	146928	212542	359470	-65614	40.87%	59.13%	-18.25%
2004
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1613	2312	3925	-699	41.10%	58.90%	-17.81%
Clinton Twp	23332	23842	47174	-510	49.46%	50.54%	-1.08%
Eastpointe	5838	9766	15604	-3928	37.41%	62.59%	-25.17%
Fraser	3893	3959	7852	-66	49.58%	50.42%	-0.84%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	33	15	48	18	68.75%	31.25%	37.50%
Mt Clemens	2766	4419	7185	-1653	38.50%	61.50%	-23.01%
Roseville	8660	12738	21398	-4078	40.47%	59.53%	-19.06%
St Clair Shores	17512	18088	35600	-576	49.19%	50.81%	-1.62%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	20385	18941	39326	1444	51.84%	48.16%	3.67%
Warren	26991	34697	61688	-7706	43.75%	56.25%	-12.49%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley	4315	5027	9342	-712	46.19%	53.81%	-7.62%
Bloomfield Twp	16314	11197	27511	5117	59.30%	40.70%	18.60%
Clawson (1/5)	716	694	1410	22	50.78%	49.22%	1.56%
Ferndale	3456	7637	11093	-4181	31.15%	68.85%	-37.69%
Hazel Park	2780	4412	7192	-1632	38.65%	61.35%	-22.69%
Huntington Woods	1236	3068	4304	-1832	28.72%	71.28%	-42.57%
Madison Heights	5934	7443	13377	-1509	44.36%	55.64%	-11.28%
Pleasant Ridge	658	1140	1798	-482	36.60%	63.40%	-26.81%
Royal Oak	15529	19143	34672	-3614	44.79%	55.21%	-10.42%
Southfield Twp	5245	4376	9621	869	54.52%	45.48%	9.03%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	167206	192914	360120	-25708	46.43%	53.57%	-7.14%
	Volaric	Levin	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	876	1405	2281	-529	38.40%	61.60%	-23.19%
Clinton Twp	14475	14784	29259	-309	49.47%	50.53%	-1.06%
Eastpointe	2859	6438	9297	-3579	30.75%	69.25%	-38.50%
Fraser	2423	2345	4768	78	50.82%	49.18%	1.64%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	21	12	33	9	63.64%	36.36%	27.27%
Mt Clemens	1597	2785	4382	-1188	36.44%	63.56%	-27.11%
Roseville	4663	7051	11714	-2388	39.81%	60.19%	-20.39%
St Clair Shores	11182	11898	23080	-716	48.45%	51.55%	-3.10%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	5003	5385	10388	-382	48.16%	51.84%	-3.68%
Warren	15443	20860	36303	-5417	42.54%	57.46%	-14.92%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bloomfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Clawson (1/5)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferndale	1649	4693	6342	-3044	26.00%	74.00%	-48.00%
Hazel Park	1263	2034	3297	-771	38.31%	61.69%	-23.38%
Huntington Woods	763	2440	3203	-1677	23.82%	76.18%	-52.36%
Madison Heights	3240	4089	7329	-849	44.21%	55.79%	-11.58%
Pleasant Ridge	403	930	1333	-527	30.23%	69.77%	-39.53%
Royal Oak	732	1148	1880	-416	38.94%	61.06%	-22.13%
Southfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	66592	88297	154889	-21705	42.99%	57.01%	-14.01%

Areas to watch in Michigan for Election Day Results

Who knows what's going to happen tomorrow. Here's the current score. 0-0. All of the state level seats are up for contest, except some trustee and judicial seats.

We're playing offense on the state house a mix of offense and defense on the state senate, as well as the statewide and congressional seats. All of the areas are important, but there are a few counties to keep an eye on for the seats in play.

1. Parts of the UP, particularly Chippewa, Mackinac, Delta, Menominee, Dickinson, and Iron Counties. Those are competitive counties, but three seats, maybe four or five if we're super lucky, are in play up there. Dan Benishek in MI-01, Tom Casperson for State Senate in the 38th district, and possibly three state rep seats up there, although I think we have a good chance at one of them. Iron County leans slightly democrat, but Benishek is from there. Chippewa and Mackinac slightly Republican, but McDowell's from there. The triangle of Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta counties swing the UP, and will be the biggest factor in who wins this congressional district. I think Beniskek wins this seat narrowly. 49-47-5 for 3rd parties.

2. Kent County. We have a tough defense for state senate here and a darkhorse defense for Ehlers seat. Some of the old time Kent County establishment Republicans are often "different" and are much more liberal (outside the life issue) than the average population. It's not an accident than Kent County local government has been one of the five most anti-gun counties in the state. The establishment there is rather hostile to small l libertarianism. That is making it more difficult than the past for this defense. I think this year though was the right year for a principled libertarian-conservative like Justin Amash. He's getting a battle in the general, although his convincing primary win sent a strong message to the establishment there. The people are in charge, not the self-proclaimed elite. I think Amash wins by 10-15% (my gut feeling, no poll evidence). It's not Ehlers numbers, but it'll be in line with an average top of the ticket (Snyder should do better here - 25% win there since he'll get the Ehlers type votes as well as conservatives because of Virg). I think 08's an aberration. I do think Amash does better in Barry and Ionia County though, than Kent County. We need a 60% win though for Johnson and Schuette.

3. Jackson County. Jackson County is what I'd classify as conservative independent. It's important statewide. It's populist, socially conservative, and distrustful of both big government and big business. It has both democrat strongholds (City of Jackson) and republican strongholds (Spring Arbor), but even in those strongholds, there's a lot of independents. As Jackson County goes, usually so does the 7th Congressional district. Jackson voted against the incumbent in 2006 primary and in 2008. Can Walberg win back Jackson County? If he does, he'll likely win. If not, Schauer will survive. There's also two key state rep districts based in Jackson County. Those will be key if the GOP is taking back the house. 55%+ would be real good.

4. Monroe County. It's a swing County that voted for Gore, Posthumus, Bush, Granholm, and Obama. Dingell's won there with big margins as well. If Dr Rob Steele (best candidate in a long time) is going to upset Dingell, he'll need to get big numbers in this part of the district, probably close to 60%. There's also two potentially competitive state rep districts here too. It's a must win county statewide. 53% would be real good.

5. Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, Waterford, Royal Oak, Clawson. Those are all key in Oakland County. If Royal Oak and West Bloomfield are close (I expect them to stay dem, but to what degree), we could be looking at blowouts and you can say an early congratulations to Congressman Rocky, and one if not two new GOP state reps. If Farmington Hills and Clawson is close (if they're going GOP, Rocky wins), it could be a long night with potential recounts, but promising results for Rocky (he'll need big help from Troy then). If Waterford is more populist and close, but has trended GOP lately outside of the 06/08 disasters. I'd like to see a win in Farmington Hills, 46%+ in West Bloomfield, 54%+ in Waterford, 46%+ in Royal Oak, and a win in Clawson. I think any of those will assure a pickup.

6. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, St Clair Shores. Those are three of the key areas in Macomb County. Those will determine who wins Macomb County overall, and in Clinton Twp's case, probably who'll take the state. There's three, maybe four if lucky, competitive state rep districts there. There's a fifth competitive seat in North Macomb that was lost in the 2008 clustermuck (Despite McCain winning the district). That one should be ours. I'd like to see 53%+ in S. Heights, and a win of any margin in Clinton Township and St Clair Shores

7. Lake Michigan Coast - Can we stop the 06/08 bleeding there. If so, bye Dan Scripps. Those should be 54%+ GOP counties from Oceana up to Leelanau. Benzie's the toughest.

8. Thumb, especially Tuscola and Huron Counties - This conservative populist area is extremely independent and loyal to no party. Even some 60% GOP areas at the top of the ticket will ticket split. Sanillac County's rep should flip with locally popular Espinoza termed out. Mike Green is the best candidate for the state senate district. He'll have to rack up big numbers in the thumb to counter Bay County, home of the populist socially moderate democrats. Green (best) can exceed Mayes (good) on the gun issue, and he's also carried a union card. This may be a pickup. We may take Terry Brown's seat as well, although that won't be easy. Like the sunrise coast and the UP, the top of the ticket doesn't tell the story here.

9. Western/Southernmost Wayne County. Two state senate seats and three state rep seats are up for grabs. Keep an eye on Canton Twp (Swings), Van Buren Twp (Dem leaning), Plymouth (city swings, Twp GOP), Northville, Wayne (dem, but by how much), Westland (dem, by how much), Garden City (dem, by how much) Livonia (slight GOP lean), Trenton (slight dem), Huron Twp (swing) and Gibraltar (slight dem). If any of those "dem by how much" areas are close or slight dem areas flipping, there will be some pickups. I'd like to see 54%+ in Canton, any win in Van Buren Twp, 60%+ in Plymouth Twp, 52%+ in Plymouth City, 60%+ in Northville, 42%+ in Wayne, 43%+ in Westland, 48%+ in Garden City, 55%+ in Livonia, any win in Trenton, 52%+ in Huron Twp, and any win in Gibralter.

10. Sunrise Coast - There's a string of swing counties from Presque Isle and Alpena down the Lake Huron Coast and over to the Saginaw Bay/West Branch area. Clare and Roscommon Counties aren't part of this area geographically, but are attached to the state rep districts here and are similar in politics. Populist. We have a tough defense (Tim Moore's open seat) and a longshot (due to the Sheltrown name) pickup opportunity here, along with the Alpena based open seat that's been close but democrat for several years. There's a darkhorse defense for state senate as well that I'm not ready to put in the safe column yet.

11. Isabella County. Probably on paper, our toughest state rep defense. Mt Pleasant is soldly dem, and the surrounding area is marginally republican. Any win in Isabella County is a positive. Rural Midland gives us a small cushion to work with for the state rep district.

12. Rural Washtenaw County. Implications for Tim Walberg, Dr Rob Steele, and an open state rep seat which is a tough offense. The swing townships in Walberg's district are Northfield, Manchester, Saline (city), Sylvan, and Dexter. Scio is a democrat stronghold, and Salem a Republican one. If the swing areas go our way along with big numbers in Manchester (or losses cut in Scio Twp), we have a shot at picking up the Byrnes seat, along with a sure thing with the Walberg seat as this is his weaker area.

13. Eaton County - Very difficult to read. Blue steak in 02, 06, and 08, but a red streak in 2004. A lot of state workers live here, although it's much more conservative socially than Ingham County next door. However, it's got a strong labor streak. The state rep district is a potentially tough defense, and Walberg's economic libertarianism didn't sell here twice, although his social views are more of a positive here outside of maybe Delta Township. This will be interesting to watch.

14. Van Buren County - Classic Swing County with state rep, state senate, and statewide implications. Must win for all of them.

15. Saginaw, Bay, Clinton, St Clair, Counties. If democrats lose Saginaw and Bay Counties (Dem lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts. If the GOP loses Clinton and St Clair Counties (GOP lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts.

Locally, Hamburg Township, City of Howell, Green Oak Township, Putnam Township, City of Brighton. If the democrats want to take any commissioner or state rep seats, they'll have to win all of those areas and win them big (better than 06 or 08). Not this year. If Cindy Denby keeps it even, let alone a win, in Howell City, Putnam Township, or Hamburg Township (marginal areas), it's over. Post won't break 40% in the Fowlerville or Hartland areas. $30,000+ down the drain for Post. Same goes for Tianen in Putnam Twp who won't come close in Marion Township. I've only seen one McBride sign in Green Oak at the home of democrat activists. Jack LaBelle doesn't campaign much, but people have voted for him for years, and he gets a lot of crossover and independent votes, which is important in marginal Green Oak. I haven't seen anything in the Hamburg commissioner district, and that's the least Republican. Kelly Raskauskas is running an aggressive race, but even in the Obama year, that was a 55% GOP district (62%+ in 04) due to most of Genoa Township in that district. I think this will be Irene Cahill v Bill Rogers 2.0 (from 2002) in results. As someone who has lived most of his life in that district, I called that race a pipedream in May. I still think it is.

Countywide, I'll be quite unhappy if Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson don't break 63%. Around that number is a magic number for statewide wins. I'd like to see Denby and both of the Rogers brothers to break 65%, and I expect a clean sweep of the commissioner seats. I thought two districts were winnable for the dems this year, but their strongest candidates are in two of the stronger GOP districts. Morris is probably the strongest as a candidate (probably most electable of the bunch), but his district is one of the two most GOP. Raskauskas is the 2nd strongest (Best organized, but not moderate enough). If either ran in Hamburg, I'd be concerned. Still, I wouldn't grade their electability in the range of the late Jake Donahue (who won), Robert Reddinger (who almost won in a conservative area), or even in Matt Evans range (ran ahead of the top of the ticket). Garry Post concerned me with his money. A moderate like Matt Evans or most of all, Robert Reddinger with $40,000 to spend and Raskauskas's organizational ability wouldn't concern me. It would scare me, especially if they kept Judy Daubenmeier in check.

Countywide, 63% is the magic number to watch for the statewide seats. We'll be in good shape to win if that's the number.

Filing Deadline Passes - Preliminary Report (Unofficial) - Primary 2010

The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Today is the filing deadline for the 2010 primary. It was at 4PM. There may be some paperwork going between the clerks and the Secretary of State Office, but here's a presumptive list of who is in and out from the Secretary of State


The Gubernatorial Candidates are:
GOP - Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox, Tom George, Pete Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder. There was talk about a couple of other longshots, but it's not happening. The petition requirements was the first elimination bout.

DEM - Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero. Alma Wheeler Smith dropped out. Geoff Fieger said he wasn't running. No Bob Bowman or anybody else.

It's a two way primary for the dems and a five way primary for the GOP

I'll update the congressional districts again when I have a chance to list who is in/out. It looks like we'll be seeing:

1st District (MI-01) - Open seat
GOP - Six way primary between Jason Allen, Dan Benishek, Patrick Donlon, Linda Goldthorpe, Don Hooper, and Tom Stillings.

Dem - Gary McDowell. I don't see Matt Gillard there. If McDowell has a free pass, this could be trouble for us. Major coup for McDowell (who is Stupak's guy) if he avoids a primary.


2nd District (MI-02) - Open seat
GOP - Seven way primary between Bill Cooper, Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Chris Larson, Field Reichardt, Jay Riemersma, and Ted Schendel.

Dem - Primary between Fred Johnson and Nicolette McClure.

Interesting matchups for the primary here. Holland dominates the district for the GOP. Muskegon dominates for the dems, but no Muskegon democrat is running. All of the GOP candidates are from Holland except Bill Cooper (Muskegon County) and Ted Schendel from Benzie County. For the dems, Fred Johnson is from Holland and McClure is from Lake County.

3rd District (MI-03) - Open Seat

GOP - Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman, Steven Heacock, Louise Johnson, and Bob Overbeek

Dem - Paul Mayhue and Pat Miles

The interesting this here is does Grand Rapids follow the "It's his turn" format as it has done for years. It looks like the "his turn" views are split between Hardiman and Heacock. That leaves an opening for Amash who is the upstart who may cause an upset.

4th District (MI-04) - Incumbent Dave Camp

GOP - Dave Camp of Midland
Dem - Jerry Campbell of St Helen

5th District (MI-05 ) - Incumbent Dale Kildee
GOP - John Kupiec and Rick Wilson, both of Grand Blanc
Dem - Dale Kildee of Flint and Scott Withers of Vassar

I don't see how a primary challenge from Tuscola County will be a big threat to Kildee, who is probably the most popular pol in Flint. One thing to watch however is the UAW membership and their response to Obama's health care takeover. A lot of the retirees and workers are scared to death about the UAW putting them all on the government plan.

6th District (MI-06) - Incumbent Fred Upton

GOP - Jack Hoogendyk of Kalamazoo and Fred Upton of St Joe
Dem - Don Cooney of Kalamazoo

This will be interesting. Upton has had issues with his right flank in the past, and this is the year of the anti-incumbent as Bob Bennett in Utah showed. Jack Hoogendyk has a lot of grass roots support and may actually pull this off if he gets traction. Cooney is stronger than most democrats on the congressional level in this district. Don't sleep on him either.

7th District (MI-07) - Incumbent Mark Schauer

GOP - Marvin Carlson of Manchester, Brian Rooney of Dexter, and Tim Walberg of Tipton
Dem - Mark Schauer of Battle Creek

This is the best chance of a pickup among the GOP. Rooney just moved to the district, but does have an interesting background with pro-life organizations and backstory, the Steelers, and his Iraq service. Carlson is a businessman. Walberg is a conservative's conservative and has proven it over a period of years, and always gets more support than polling and finances suggest. Walberg did what no one has done yet, defeated Doug Spade. He would have won if the NRCC didn't abandon him in 08.

8th District - Incumbent Mike Rogers
GOP - Mike Rogers of Brighton/Howell
Dem - Kande Ngalamulume of Lansing

Blue Cross Kande vs Mike.

9th District - Incumbent Gary Peters

GOP - Anna Janek of West Bloomfield, Richard Kuhn of Waterford, Andrew Rocky Raczkowski of Farmington Hills, Paul Welday of Farmington Hills.

Dem - Gary Peters

This is our 2nd best shot for a pickup after the 7th. Peters is a 1st term incumbent who was a complete yesman without an original thought. What Pelosi wanted, Peters delivered, including Cap and Trade along with Obama's health care takeover in a district which was HQ for Chrysler, and has a GM plant.

10th District - Incumbent Candice Miller

GOP - Candice Miller of Harrison Township
Dem - Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights

11th District - Incumbent Thad McCotter
GOP - Thad McCotter of Livonia
Dem - Natalie Mosher of Canton

This is one to watch for defense purposes. McCotter had a tough go in 08, despite running way ahead of the top of the ticket.

12th District - Incumbent Sander Levin
GOP - Don Volaric of Clinton Township
Dem - Sander Levin or Royal Oak and Mickey Switalski of Roseville

This is interesting for two reasons. Levin has his toughest primary in ages. Switalski has won a ton of races in Macomb County. As Michigan lost a congressional seat, Levin's district had to be pushed further into Macomb County, which isn't his main territory. Can Volaric take advantage of that?

13th District - Incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
GOP - John Hauler of Grosse Pointe Woods
Dem - Vincent Brown of Garden City?(Garden City is in the 11th), Hansen Clarke, Stephen Hume, and Carolyn Kilpatrick, and Glenn Plummer of Detroit.

Kilpatrick is in big trouble this August. If it wasn't for straight ticket voting, I'd give Hauler a 35% shot in the general for "Bill Jefferson" reasons, but the straight ticket zombies who don't even read the ballot make it about a 5% shot for a pickup.

14th District - Incumbent John Conyers
GOP - Pauline Montie of Southgate
Dem - John Conyers of Detroit

I figured someone would take on Conyers in the primary after his wife making the news as a city councilcritter. The straight ticket zombies rule applies here too, as it does in the 13th district (and 5th, 12th, and 15th for that matter)

15th District - Incumbent John Dingell
GOP - Tony Amorose of Southgate, John Lynch of Ypsilanti, John Materyn of Brownstown Township, Majed Moughni of Dearborn, and Rob Steele of Ypsi
Dem - John Dingell of Dearborn.

I'm a bit surprised at a five way primary here. Maybe something is bursting in this district as blowback against the Ann Arbor leftists.

Closer to home in Livingston County, these are the presumed matchups:

State Senate 22nd District - Open
GOP - Joe Hune v Paul Rogers
Dem - Chuck Fellows

State Rep 47th District - Incumbent Cindy Denby
GOP - Cindy Denby
Dem - Garry Post

State Rep 66th District - Incumbent Bill Rogers
GOP - Bill Rogers
Dem - James Delcamp

County Commissioners
District 1 - All of Brighton Twp outside precinct 5, Hartland Twp 5 - Incumbent Maggie Jones
GOP - Maggie Jones and Nancy Hill
Dem - None

District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 - Incumbent Jim Mantey
GOP - Jim Mantey
Dem - Thomas Bell III

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5 - Incumbent Dave Domas
GOP - Dave Domas and Charlie Aberasturi
Dem - Dane Morris

District 4 - All of Handy, Iosco, and Unadilla Twp, Marion Twp 1, Howell Twp 3 - Incumbent Ronald Van Houten
Unopposed

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Open
GOP - Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Anne Lathrop
Dem - David Berry

District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12.
Incumbent - Steve Williams
GOP - Steve Williams
Dem - Keith Tianen

District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Incumbent Carol Griffith
GOP - Carol Griffith
Dem - Kelly Raskauskas

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Incumbent Dennis Dolan
GOP - Dennis Dolan
Dem - Amir Baghdadchi

District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Incumbent Jack LaBelle
GOP - Jack LaBelle
Dem - Barry McBride

Judges - No opposition.

I'll take a closer look at the county commissioner and local races as time goes by, but here's the unofficial final list after the filing deadline.