Friday, April 02, 2010

Michigan 12th District (MI-12) Updated

Update 8-4-2010 - Primary Result

Michigan's 12th District - Congress

Incumbent - Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak or Roseville)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 28
Cook District Numbers - D+12

GOP Candidate - Don Volaric
Dem Candidate - Sander Levin

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 65%
McCain - 33%

2004:
Kerry - 61%
Bush - 39%

2000
Gore - 61%
Bush - 37%



This district was created to stop David Bonior and to help Joe Knollenberg. It did the former and it bought time for the latter. I forgot that three precincts of Royal Oak are in this district, so my numbers in the 9th are a little more democrat than the actual results. The redistricters made sure that Sandy Levin's home and David Bonior's home of Mt Clemens were in the same district. I thought they should have given Royal Oak to Levin, and put either his portion of Sterling Heights, or even give Clinton Twp to Candice Miller.She would have beaten Bonior anyway as long as Lapeer County and Sanilac County was in that district. It is what it is.

The district covers Center Line, Clinton Twp, Eastpointe, Fraser, Lake Twp, City of Mt. Clemens, City of Roseville, St Clair Shores, Part of the city of Sterling Heights, and the City of Warren in Macomb County. It covers Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Madison Heights, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, two precincts in the City of Royal Oak, Royal Oak Township, and the City of Southfield in Oakland County.

It is a strongly democrat district, and has been since the 1980's. It was more competitive in the 1990's when it had Troy in the district. I believe this was Jim Blanchard's old district before he was governor. It was originally more of an Oakland County based district, and it is now based in Macomb County. Levin faced a primary when Bill Callahan was termed out of his St Clair Shores district, and is facing a much tougher primary from Roseville's termed out state senator Mickey Switalski. Levin is 78, and while he's not the oldest congressman in Michigan, (Dingell, Conyers, Kildee are all older), it becomes an issue in campaigns.The old 12th had all of Sterling Heights and Warren, with the rest of the district in Oakland County. This district has less of Oakland County (although it added Southfield) and more of Macomb. This district goes further east to get Bonior's top areas. Both Switalski and Callahan came from Bonior Country. The Oakland Democrats (less pro-union, more feminist, more culturally leftist) and Macomb Democrats (more centrist on social issues, very pro-union) sometimes can clash, although Levin, much like his brother, have been able to avoid that to a degree.

It would take a miracle for Republicans to win this district. Southfield is one of the most democrat cities in the state. Oak Park and Lathrup Village go the same way as Southfield with their black populations. Royal Oak Twp is an extension of Detroit. Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, and Huntington Woods are Ann Arbor Oakland. In Macomb, Warren, Eastpointe, and Roseville are all UAW strongholds. Mt Clemens is usually the most democrat part of Macomb County. St Clair Shores leans slightly democrat, but is winnable for the GOP. A right populist could make inroads into Macomb, but would get crushed in Oakland. A social liberal non populist could make inroads into the white parts of Oakland, and would get crushed in Macomb. All Republicans get crushed in Southfield.

Here's the 2008 results for Levin.


2008 Elections Copple S. Levin 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Macomb County


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 911 2,714 194        3,819 -1803 23.85% 71.07% -47.21%
Clinton Twp 15,104 29,875 1956      46,935 -14771 32.18% 63.65% -31.47%
Eastpointe 3,073 11,750 717      15,540 -8677 19.77% 75.61% -55.84%
Fraser 2,466 4,651 324        7,441 -2185 33.14% 62.51% -29.36%
Lake Twp 20 16 2            38 4 52.63% 42.11% 10.53%
Mount Clemens 1,666 5,322 371        7,359 -3656 22.64% 72.32% -49.68%
Roseville 4,805 14,925 1080      20,810 -10120 23.09% 71.72% -48.63%
St Clair Shores 10,953 20,851 1570      33,374 -9898 32.82% 62.48% -29.66%
Sterling Heights: 5,317 10,385 643      16,345 -5068 32.53% 63.54% -31.01%
SH 1


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 2


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 3


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 4


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 5


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 6


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 8


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 9


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 10


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 13


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 15


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 16


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 46


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 47


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 901


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 902


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 903


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 907


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Warren 16,070 40,591 2593      59,254 -24521 27.12% 68.50% -41.38%
Oakland County


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ferndale 1,960 8,186 709      10,855 -6226 18.06% 75.41% -57.36%
Hazel Park 1,482 4,733 397        6,612 -3251 22.41% 71.58% -49.17%
Huntington Woods 717 3,409 97        4,223 -2692 16.98% 80.72% -63.75%
Lathrup Village 426 2,360 68        2,854 -1934 14.93% 82.69% -67.76%
Madison Heights 3,631 8,483 582      12,696 -4852 28.60% 66.82% -38.22%
Oak Park 1,383 14,339 245      15,967 -12956 8.66% 89.80% -81.14%
Pleasant Ridge 420 1,293 78        1,791 -873 23.45% 72.19% -48.74%
City of Royal Oak: 858 1,995 144        2,997 -1137 28.63% 66.57% -37.94%
RO 1


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
RO 2


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
RO 928


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Royal Oak Twp 13 1,494 16        1,523 -1481 0.85% 98.10% -97.24%
City of Southfield 3,290 37,772 798      41,860 -34482 7.86% 90.23% -82.37%









Total 74,565 225,144 12,584 312,293 -150579 23.88% 72.09% -48.22%

The 2000 and 2004 elections showed the populist areas shift slightly, and the more affluent areas shift slightly the other way. 2008 was an ass kicking, and the biggest increases were in minority areas.

Here's the 2000 numbers.


2000 Elections Bush Gore 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Macomb County


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1,365 2,215 115        3,695 -850 36.94% 59.95% -23.00%
Clinton Twp 19,427 21,075 1016      41,518 -1648 46.79% 50.76% -3.97%
Eastpointe 5,383 8,558 429      14,370 -3175 37.46% 59.55% -22.09%
Fraser 3,323 3,743 167        7,233 -420 45.94% 51.75% -5.81%
Lake Twp 33 13 2            48 20 68.75% 27.08% 41.67%
Mount Clemens 2,393 3,964 216        6,573 -1571 36.41% 60.31% -23.90%
Roseville 7,059 11,417 521      18,997 -4358 37.16% 60.10% -22.94%
St Clair Shores 15,175 16,807 951      32,933 -1632 46.08% 51.03% -4.96%
Sterling Heights:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 1 429 508 22          959 -79 44.73% 52.97% -8.24%
SH 2 505 513 36        1,054 -8 47.91% 48.67% -0.76%
SH 3 431 503 20          954 -72 45.18% 52.73% -7.55%
SH 4 496 565 21        1,082 -69 45.84% 52.22% -6.38%
SH 5 475 466 14          955 9 49.74% 48.80% 0.94%
SH 6 371 344 24          739 27 50.20% 46.55% 3.65%
SH 8 276 226 21          523 50 52.77% 43.21% 9.56%
SH 9 611 394 23        1,028 217 59.44% 38.33% 21.11%
SH 10 289 276 16          581 13 49.74% 47.50% 2.24%
SH 13 324 335 21          680 -11 47.65% 49.26% -1.62%
SH 15 427 383 14          824 44 51.82% 46.48% 5.34%
SH 16 351 381 19          751 -30 46.74% 50.73% -3.99%
SH 46 355 339 14          708 16 50.14% 47.88% 2.26%
SH 47 229 316 14          559 -87 40.97% 56.53% -15.56%
SH 901 671 684 28        1,383 -13 48.52% 49.46% -0.94%
SH 902 465 481 18          964 -16 48.24% 49.90% -1.66%
SH 903 988 1,064 28        2,080 -76 47.50% 51.15% -3.65%
SH 907 556 402 19          977 154 56.91% 41.15% 15.76%
Warren 23,778 32,697 1539      58,014 -8919 40.99% 56.36% -15.37%
Oakland County


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ferndale 2,970 6,107 529        9,606 -3137 30.92% 63.57% -32.66%
Hazel Park 2,171 3,914 261        6,346 -1743 34.21% 61.68% -27.47%
Huntington Woods 1,094 2,929 96        4,119 -1835 26.56% 71.11% -44.55%
Lathrup Village 719 1,855 48        2,622 -1136 27.42% 70.75% -43.33%
Madison Heights 4,950 6,771 418      12,139 -1821 40.78% 55.78% -15.00%
Oak Park 1,837 10,912 222      12,971 -9075 14.16% 84.13% -69.96%
Pleasant Ridge 593 943 74        1,610 -350 36.83% 58.57% -21.74%
City of Royal Oak:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
RO 1 285 522 34          841 -237 33.89% 62.07% -28.18%
RO 2 341 477 37          855 -136 39.88% 55.79% -15.91%
RO 928


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Royal Oak Twp 67 1,840 14        1,921 -1773 3.49% 95.78% -92.30%
City of Southfield 5,809 30,769 582      37,160 -24960 15.63% 82.80% -67.17%









Total 107,021 175,708 7,643 290,372 -68687 36.86% 60.51% -23.65%


2004 numbers:


2004 Elections Bush Gore 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Macomb County


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1,613 2,312 47        3,972 -699 40.61% 58.21% -17.60%
Clinton Twp 23,332 23,842 465      47,639 -510 48.98% 50.05% -1.07%
Eastpointe 5,838 9,766 181      15,785 -3928 36.98% 61.87% -24.88%
Fraser 3,893 3,959 78        7,930 -66 49.09% 49.92% -0.83%
Lake Twp 33 15
           48 18 68.75% 31.25% 37.50%
Mount Clemens 2,766 4,419 88        7,273 -1653 38.03% 60.76% -22.73%
Roseville 8,660 12,738 193      21,591 -4078 40.11% 59.00% -18.89%
St Clair Shores 17,512 18,088 416      36,016 -576 48.62% 50.22% -1.60%
Sterling Heights:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 1 402 496 8          906 -94 44.37% 54.75% -10.38%
SH 2 502 546 8        1,056 -44 47.54% 51.70% -4.17%
SH 3 454 551 9        1,014 -97 44.77% 54.34% -9.57%
SH 4 668 795 9        1,472 -127 45.38% 54.01% -8.63%
SH 5 465 494 9          968 -29 48.04% 51.03% -3.00%
SH 6 592 551 6        1,149 41 51.52% 47.95% 3.57%
SH 8 297 214 8          519 83 57.23% 41.23% 15.99%
SH 9 552 459 4        1,015 93 54.38% 45.22% 9.16%
SH 10 496 471 15          982 25 50.51% 47.96% 2.55%
SH 13 170 144 9          323 26 52.63% 44.58% 8.05%
SH 15 463 485 11          959 -22 48.28% 50.57% -2.29%
SH 16 343 467 6          816 -124 42.03% 57.23% -15.20%
SH 46 478 592 8        1,078 -114 44.34% 54.92% -10.58%
SH 47 257 335 7          599 -78 42.90% 55.93% -13.02%
SH 901 706 768 12        1,486 -62 47.51% 51.68% -4.17%
SH 902 165 164 5          334 1 49.40% 49.10% 0.30%
SH 903 60 68 1          129 -8 46.51% 52.71% -6.20%
SH 907 1,330 1,208 31        2,569 122 51.77% 47.02% 4.75%
Warren 26,991 34,697 822      62,510 -7706 43.18% 55.51% -12.33%
Oakland County


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ferndale 3,456 7,637 160      11,253 -4181 30.71% 67.87% -37.15%
Hazel Park 2,780 4,412 86        7,278 -1632 38.20% 60.62% -22.42%
Huntington Woods 1,236 3,068 28        4,332 -1832 28.53% 70.82% -42.29%
Lathrup Village 686 2,169 14        2,869 -1483 23.91% 75.60% -51.69%
Madison Heights 5,934 7,443 165      13,542 -1509 43.82% 54.96% -11.14%
Oak Park 3,120 12,095 98      15,313 -8975 20.37% 78.99% -58.61%
Pleasant Ridge 658 1,140 18        1,816 -482 36.23% 62.78% -26.54%
City of Royal Oak:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
RO 1 421 689 12        1,122 -268 37.52% 61.41% -23.89%
RO 2 511 703 18        1,232 -192 41.48% 57.06% -15.58%
RO 928 267 384 4          655 -117 40.76% 58.63% -17.86%
Royal Oak Twp 84 1,683 3        1,770 -1599 4.75% 95.08% -90.34%
City of Southfield 7,269 33,827 268      41,364 -26558 17.57% 81.78% -64.21%









Total 125,460 193,894 3,330 322,684 -68434 38.88% 60.09% -21.21%


And the 2008 whooping. 


2008 Elections McCain Obama 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Macomb County


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1,431 2,462 92        3,985 -1031 35.91% 61.78% -25.87%
Clinton Twp 21,133 27,722 844      49,699 -6589 42.52% 55.78% -13.26%
Eastpointe 4,670 11,182 341      16,193 -6512 28.84% 69.05% -40.21%
Fraser 3,601 4,161 168        7,930 -560 45.41% 52.47% -7.06%
Lake Twp 27 13
           40 14 67.50% 32.50% 35.00%
Mount Clemens 2,393 5,171 148        7,712 -2778 31.03% 67.05% -36.02%
Roseville 7,679 13,769 455      21,903 -6090 35.06% 62.86% -27.80%
St Clair Shores 16,098 18,531 786      35,415 -2433 45.46% 52.33% -6.87%
Sterling Heights:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 1 330 511 8          849 -181 38.87% 60.19% -21.32%
SH 2 438 517 10          965 -79 45.39% 53.58% -8.19%
SH 3 383 624 21        1,028 -241 37.26% 60.70% -23.44%
SH 4 567 844 14        1,425 -277 39.79% 59.23% -19.44%
SH 5 353 571 14          938 -218 37.63% 60.87% -23.24%
SH 6 482 614 15        1,111 -132 43.38% 55.27% -11.88%
SH 8 248 262 11          521 -14 47.60% 50.29% -2.69%
SH 9 450 476 6          932 -26 48.28% 51.07% -2.79%
SH 10 393 484 24          901 -91 43.62% 53.72% -10.10%
SH 13 137 185 4          326 -48 42.02% 56.75% -14.72%
SH 15 352 553 9          914 -201 38.51% 60.50% -21.99%
SH 16 255 475 12          742 -220 34.37% 64.02% -29.65%
SH 46 384 671 20        1,075 -287 35.72% 62.42% -26.70%
SH 47 200 307 8          515 -107 38.83% 59.61% -20.78%
SH 901 725 796 29        1,550 -71 46.77% 51.35% -4.58%
SH 902 203 210 3          416 -7 48.80% 50.48% -1.68%
SH 903 68 61 2          131 7 51.91% 46.56% 5.34%
SH 907 1,369 1,369 31        2,769 0 49.44% 49.44% 0.00%
Warren 24,006 36,901 1282      62,189 -12895 38.60% 59.34% -20.74%
Oakland County


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ferndale 2,621 8,532 206      11,359 -5911 23.07% 75.11% -52.04%
Hazel Park 2,279 4,461 170        6,910 -2182 32.98% 64.56% -31.58%
Huntington Woods 1,041 3,255 37        4,333 -2214 24.02% 75.12% -51.10%
Lathrup Village 471 2,433 25        2,929 -1962 16.08% 83.07% -66.99%
Madison Heights 5,088 8,017 300      13,405 -2929 37.96% 59.81% -21.85%
Oak Park 2,597 13,836 111      16,544 -11239 15.70% 83.63% -67.93%
Pleasant Ridge 512 1,311 31        1,854 -799 27.62% 70.71% -43.10%
City of Royal Oak:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
RO 1 327 745 25        1,097 -418 29.81% 67.91% -38.10%
RO 2 466 816 21        1,303 -350 35.76% 62.62% -26.86%
RO 928 258 504 13          775 -246 33.29% 65.03% -31.74%
Royal Oak Twp 16 1,528 2        1,546 -1512 1.03% 98.84% -97.80%
City of Southfield 4,701 38,000 288      42,989 -33299 10.94% 88.39% -77.46%









Total 108,752 212,880 5,586 327,218 -104128 33.24% 65.06% -31.82%

By Area
Oakland County
2000 - Gore 74.33%, Bush 23.10%, 90190 votes, -46203 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 73.38%,  Bush 25.77%, 102546 votes, -48828 vote spread
2008 - Obama 79.43%, McCain 19.40%, 105044 votes, -63061 vote spread

Macomb County
2000 - Gore 54.29%, Bush 43.05%, 200182 votes, -22484 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 53.90%, Bush 44.99%, 220138 votes, -19606 vote spread
2008 - Obama 58.26%, McCain 39.78%, 222174 votes, -41067 vote spread

The farm club here leans democrat, as expected from a district gerrymandered largely to throw Bonior and Levin in the same district. 

St Senate 14 - Covers Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak Twp, Southfield, and Southfield Twp. This is probably the most democrat state senate district outside of the City of Detroit, give or take Ann Arbor and Flint. Most of this district is in the 12th District, but the Farmingtons and Southfield Twp are in the 9th. Gilda Jacobs is termed out in 2010, but the only chance the GOP has here is if it's a 1994 like year, and even still, there's still Southfield, Lathrup, Ferndale, Oak Park, and Huntington Woods.

St Senate 14th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Bellinger/Jacobs 26571 78346 3114    108,031 -51775 24.60% 72.52% -47.93%
02 - Wilkins/Jacobs 28249 65538 2030      95,817 -37289 29.48% 68.40% -38.92%

St Senate 13 -  Covers Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy. This is a swing district that was a barnburner in 2006. Liberal Republican Shirley Johnson was termed out and there was a tough primary and general election. John Pappageorge, a former state rep ran and won a very close race with Andy Levin - Sander Levin's son. Pappageorge's win helped save the senate.

St Senate 13th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Pappageorge/A.Levin 57,204 56,484 3129    116,817 720 48.97% 48.35% 0.62%
02 - Johnson/Levitt 63,793 37,222
   101,015 26571 63.15% 36.85% 26.30%

St Senate 11 - Covers Armada Twp, Bruce Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Harrison Twp, Lenox Twp, Macomb Twp, Memphis Twp, Mt Clemens, New Baltimore, Ray Twp,  Richmond City and Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp. If you can call a Macomb County district Solid GOP, this is it. I thought the redistricters did a poor job in Macomb County, which I'll get to in the next seat. Alan Sanborn is termed out, and this seat opens up.

St Senate 11th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Sanborn/Jenkins 65543 42279 2903    110,725 23264 59.19% 38.18% 21.01%
02 - Sanborn/Ayres 55859 26365
     82,224 29494 67.94% 32.06% 35.87%

St Senate 10 - Covers Clinton Twp, Roseville, Sterling Heights, and Utica - Why the hell do you take what is otherwise a swing district, and give it Roseville of all places? Roseville is one of the three most democrat places by percentage in Macomb County. Eastpointe and Mt Clemens are the other. Roseville is also home of the Switalski family. Give Switalski the Warren district. Give the Sterling Heights district Shelby Twp instead. That could have made it 2 GOP Senate seats instead of 1 GOP, 1 Dem, and 1 lean Dem. Michael Switalski is the incumbent, and he's termed out. This could be fight if 2010 is a good year. It depends on how well the Republican does in Clinton Twp. He must win it to have a chance here. Postumus did in 2002. Bush came close, but lost it.

St Senate 10th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Horton/Switalski 30,067 62,737 2596      95,400 -32670 31.52% 65.76% -34.25%
02 - Rice/Switalski 36,424 42,822 1462      80,708 -6398 45.13% 53.06% -7.93%

St Senate 9th - Covers Center Line, Eastpointe, Fraser, Lake Twp, St Clair Shores, and Warren. - This is the South Macomb County district and has a very strong democrat leaning. All of these areas outside Fraser, Lake Twp and St Clair Shores are strongholds for populist democrats. Fraser and St Clair Shores are winnable in a very good year for the GOP. Winning this seat would be equivalent to the democrats winning the 22nd. Dennis Olshove is termed out after two terms. Dems are likely to keep the open seat.

St Senate 9th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
06 -Nielson/Olshove 27,294 60,789 1638      89,721 -33495 30.42% 67.75% -37.33%
02 - Stevens/Olshove 28,588 47,609 2085      78,282 -19021 36.52% 60.82% -24.30%

St House 42nd - Covers Eastpointe, part of Fraser, and Roseville in Macomb County. This is one of the two most democrat seats in Macomb County. They've held this seat as long as I've followed this.

St Rep 42nd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Fleming/Haugh 9,697 26,791 1560      38,048 -17094 25.49% 70.41% -44.93%
06 - Fleming/Accavitti 7,286 21,718 703      29,707 -14432 24.53% 73.11% -48.58%
04 - Fleming/Accavitti 10,499 27,269
     37,768 -16770 27.80% 72.20% -44.40%
02 - Riske/Accavitti 7,580 15,746 955      24,281 -8166 31.22% 64.85% -33.63%


St House 35th - Covers Lathrup Village, part of Oak Park, Royal Oak Township, and the city of Southfield in Oakland County - The most democrat seat in Oakland County. It is a black majority district based in Southfield, although it did vote for Paul Condino for three terms. Vincent Gregory is safe if he survives the primary.

St Rep 35th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Koppin/Gregory 4,936 41,017 894      46,847 -36081 10.54% 87.56% -77.02%
06 - Zwick/Condino 3,837 31,509
     35,346 -27672 10.86% 89.14% -78.29%
04 - Malisow/Condino 6,075 39,799
     45,874 -33724 13.24% 86.76% -73.51%
02 - Jordan/Condino 6,397 25,876
     32,273 -19479 19.82% 80.18% -60.36%


St House 31st - Covers part of Clinton Township, part of Fraser, and Mount Clemens in Macomb County. This is a slightly democrat leaning, but potentially competitive district. Mount Clemens makes this seat tough for the GOP, but this could be the year to go for it. It's an open seat with Fred Miller termed out. The dems have had this district for at least 12 years, so it won't be easy to take, but it's worth a shot.


St Rep 31st GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Tollis/Miller 12,277 26,404 1263      39,944 -14127 30.74% 66.10% -35.37%
06 - Tollis/Miller 10,348 18,584 777      29,709 -8236 34.83% 62.55% -27.72%
04 - Morelli/Miller 16,523 21,274 949      38,746 -4751 42.64% 54.91% -12.26%
02 - Russo/Gieleghem 9,021 14,663 701      24,385 -5642 36.99% 60.13% -23.14%


St House 28th - Covers Center Line and part of Warren in Macomb County. This is the other major democrat stronghold district in Macomb County. South Warren and Centerline.It's been democrat as long as I remember with its union base.Lesis Liss is a one term incumbent taking over for the Wojno family, who took over for Olshove.


St Rep 28th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Balaska/Liss 10,342 24,659
     35,001 -14317 29.55% 70.45% -40.90%
06 - Knue/Wojno 6,591 19,965
     26,556 -13374 24.82% 75.18% -50.36%
04 - Knue/Wojno 9,748 24,288 547      34,583 -14540 28.19% 70.23% -42.04%
02 - Stevens/Wojno 6,883 14,998 415      22,296 -8115 30.87% 67.27% -36.40%

St House 27th - Covers Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, most of Oak Park, and Pleasant Ridge in Oakland County. This is possibly the most liberal district in Michigan. Gilda Jacobs used to have this seat. Ellen Cogen Lipton took over for Andy Meisner.

St Rep 27th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Micola/Lipton 10,099 31,758 2616      44,473 -21659 22.71% 71.41% -48.70%
06 - Sears/Meisner 7,303 27,285
     34,588 -19982 21.11% 78.89% -57.77%
04 - Axtell/Meisner 10,755 32,447 1188      44,390 -21692 24.23% 73.10% -48.87%
02 - Sanford/Meisner 7,927 21,037 875      29,839 -13110 26.57% 70.50% -43.94%


St Rep 26th - Madison Heights and Royal Oak - Strong Democrat leanings, but has been competitive in the past. I think the dems have held this seat since at least 98, if not earlier. It will be opened up in 2010. I think there's an outside shot if it is another 1994 type of year, but this seat is for the dems to lose.

St Rep 26th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Goodman/Donigan 15,471 28,003 1885      45,359 -12532 34.11% 61.74% -27.63%
06 - Konczal/Donigan 12,357 22,079 1057      35,493 -9722 34.82% 62.21% -27.39%
04 - Ginotti/Donigan 20,954 22,780 2682      46,416 -1826 45.14% 49.08% -3.93%
02 - West/Woodward 11,697 19,058 722      31,477 -7361 37.16% 60.55% -23.39%

St Rep 25th - Covers Northern Warren and Southern Sterling Heights in Macomb County - This district can possibly be competitive in the right year, but favors the democrats. The GOP did have a similar district to this from 96- 2002. I'm not sure if they had it before then too or not. Southern Warren is a democrat stronghold. Northern Warren less so. Southern Sterling Heights leans democrat, not overwhelmingly so. It's not Roseville or Eastpointe. A Switalski is tough to beat in Macomb County.

St Rep 25th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Wiecek/J.Switalski 14,285 26,874 1549      42,708 -12589 33.45% 62.92% -29.48%
06 - StPierre/Bieda 10,151 22,633 794      33,578 -12482 30.23% 67.40% -37.17%
04 - Wiecek/Bieda 16,269 25,497
     41,766 -9228 38.95% 61.05% -22.09%
02 - Sadowski/Bieda 12,893 16,910
     29,803 -4017 43.26% 56.74% -13.48%

St Rep 24th - Covers Harrison Twp and the City of St Clair Shores in Macomb County - This is a swing district in the truest sense. Democrat Bill Callahan held the seat, then Republican Jack Brandenburg, and now Sarah Roberts. This is one I think we can take back, especially if Roberts is still driving that foreign car. How many jobs did that cost?

St Rep 24th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - B.Brandenbug/Roberts 22,430 23,495 1678      47,603 -1065 47.12% 49.36% -2.24%
06 - J.Brandenburg/Abella 22,256 14,645 608      37,509 7611 59.34% 39.04% 20.29%
04 - J.Brandenberg/Foukes 29,111 17,317
     46,428 11794 62.70% 37.30% 25.40%
02 - J.Brandenburg/Benson 17,694 14,296 1049      33,039 3398 53.55% 43.27% 10.28%

Overall this district is safe outside of a miracle year or a Don Sherwood type of scandal for Levin. Redistricting may change things a big depending on population shifts. The big battles in this district will probably be the State Senate 13th District, St house 24th, and St House 31st.

Updated 5-18-2010 - This is an interesting August. Sander Levin is facing Switalski, one of the strongest democrats out of Macomb County, in a primary. Switalski might actually pull this one off. We'll see.

2 comments:

Conservative First said...

There was no way to put Roseville and Warren into the same district due to the requirement that city lines could not be broken. The only other option for Warren was to put it with Sterling Heights, which would be worse for the GOP.

Republican Michigander said...

I got it close, but had to combine Macomb, Washington, and Shelby Twps (with the Sterling Heights district) to do it, which I tried to avoid.

There's a 5% variation allowed. Under the 2000 numbers 261,538 people, I had this without municipal breaks.

Distict 1 (Dem) - Warren, Eastpointe, Fraser, St Clair Shores.

D2 - Sterling Heights, Utica, Macomb Twp, Washington Twp, Shelby Twp

D3 - Roseville, Clinton Twp, Mt Clemens, Chesterfield, Lenox, Richmond, Armada, Bruce, Ray.

That's still not a great matchup, but I like my chances of winning a big enough margin out of Richmond, Armada, Bruce, Chesterfield, and Ray Twps than I am out of a swing area like Sterling Heights.