Showing posts with label Arizona. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona. Show all posts

Monday, January 10, 2011

Thoughts on the Giffords assasination attempt and fallout

A lot of yapping has been going on in all quarters the past few days. I decided to wait it out before posting anything. Right now, here's the facts. Anything else is opinion, conjecture, speculation, opinion, demonetization, or even lies.

1. Six people have been killed, including Judge John Roll and a nine year old girl.
2. Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, a Democrat, was shot and is in critical condition, but likely to survive. Good. Hopefully she makes a full recovery.
3. In custody as the prime suspect is Jared Lee Loughner who was by all accounts, caught at the scene. He's been charged with murder and attempted murder. The case has not gone to trial.
4. Loughner had things posted on myspace and youtube, but that's the extent so far about what is known about his opinions.
5. This is a federal case due to a federal judge being killed and a congresswoman being attacked. There is also Pima County jurisdiction for other charges that may occur.
6. Loughner has invoked his right to remain silent at this time.
7. The firearm was a Glock 19 (9mm) pistol. (not an automatic as earlier news reports stated)
8. Loughner has two priors, one for drug paraphernalia possession, the other unknown outside of it being a "minor" charge.

Those are the facts. Anything else is conjecture. What follows below is opinion.

One thing surprising to a lot of people, but that we take for granted is how easy it really is for us to meet our representatives. I've seen Mike Rogers several times over the last 10 years. The only entourage I've seen him with is staff. Sometimes, it's just Mike. Mike's office has been vandalized in the past, and he's had his share of threats. The only security I've ever seen around Mike are concealed pistol holders. I've also met in the past Debbie Stabenow (then congresswoman), John Dingell, Tim Walberg, Pete Hoekstra, Vern Ehlers, Justin Amash, Fred Upton, Candice Miller, John Conyers, Dan Benishek, and Thad McCotter, as either a candidate or congressman (or both). People in both parties. I'm not saying that to sound important, but to mention accessibility to those who make the effort. None of them had police escorts that I could tell. None of them had overt private security. I know several of them are gun owners and are probably CPL holders, and have CPL holders on their staff, but it's nothing like presidential security.

Same goes for the state level. I've never seen major security for our state reps either outside of the check in at the house building and the floor itself at the capitol. DC is more stringent, but security is not difficult there either. Our state reps are even more accessible than our congressmen. Many here in Livingston County (and Shiawassee and part of Ingham) probably saw Joe Hune knock on their door.

Even the gubernatorial and senate candidates I've seen did not have a lot (or any) security. I saw Granholm making the rounds at the capitol without police escort. I don't know how much security she had at speaking events. Carl Levin drove himself to one event (I've seen Rogers do the same several times). Bouchard, Butler, Zandstra, and Rocky have been easily accessible during their campaigns without massive security.

Unfortunately but understandable, I think we may be losing that to a degree with this. It'll be interesting to see what future security measures are taken to reduce the chance of lone wolf deranged individuals like the next Loughner.

And that's exactly what Loughner is by all accounts. A lone wolf deranged individual who didn't really fit in any political spectrum, as you'd guess by a guy who lists Mein Kampf and the Communist Manifesto has favorites.....next to We the Living (Polar opposites of one another Collectivists books next to Objectivist books). He was athiest, supported flag burning, didn't support the currency, thought there was mind control through grammar (whatever that is), and was big on "conscience dreaming". This guy really couldn't be put on a map.

As far as Giffords goes, she's a moderate by democrat standards and isn't as controversial to the mainstream as a lot of the other democrats. By most accounts, people liked her (and her district went for Bush twice and McCain). She's relatively pro-2nd Amendment, and at least moderate on border issues (and better than Bush there). If this was indeed a right v left ideological hit in Arizona, I can think of someone else I'd expect to be the target, and no, I'm not mentioning who it would be. This is the work of one nutter.

But according to the leftists, kos crazies, and the media, this is all Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck's fault, not the shooter. Dancing in the blood before it is dry. It was almost like it was glee. They wanted to find something to attack Palin, who they are obsessed with (and I think it comes down to their pro-abortion views, and Palin is a real threat to that as she chose life over eugenics) I'm not surprised. This is politics, which is about power, and the left wants power over people. The big attack on Palin is gasp, targets on districts from her PAC site during the election. Big f'ing deal. Big deal. (DCCC did the same thing, and KOS targeted Giffords for not being leftist enough) Anyone who works in the business understands some of the terms. Target seats. A target district is a swing district. That's it. That was the clear intent, and anyone with a brain knows it. Those saying otherwise are idiots or agenda driven. The cable TV and talk radio attacks are out there as well. Free speech for some, not for all. Scratch a liberal, find a fascist.

Speaking of "hateful" rhetoric, here's some blasts from the past.

Craig Kilborn Show - Graphic of Target Site around then President Bush. Sniper's Wanted was the caption.

"Death of a President" - 2006 Film about assassinating George W Bush.

Alec Baldwin talked about stoning Henry Hyde and killing his family. This c***s***er Baldwin even brought the kids into it....and I don't even care for Mr. Hyde.

Or Kos Crazy 'Boy Blue' who ripped...Gabrielle Giffords as dead to him.

Plenty more at Michelle Malkin's site

Talk show host Mike Malloy - I hope Glenn Beck kills himself.

Talk show host Montel Williams - Michelle (Bachman), slit your wrist. Better yet, start at the collarbone.

And about 90% of what comes out of Congresscritter Pete Stark's mouth.
Surprisingly, in a good way, I haven't heard Obama run his mouth and take pot shots like Clinton did after the OKC bombing. Yet. We need to be prepared, though. Clinton did it in 95, and the doubletalking political hack Sheriff Dupnik (long known leftist and anti-freedom - and reason why guns only in hands of cops is terrible idea) in Pima County is blaming talk radio now for this. Speaking of Dupnik, he needs to finally be taken out. (oops..inflammatory rhetoric). Taken out election time politically.

Rahm Emanuel mentioned "Never to let a crisis go to waste." After major events, our freedoms are most at risk. The attack on gun shows happened after Columbine. The ban one evil black rifles happened after the Stockton mass shooting. The Class III regulations came after mafia wars of the 20's and 30's. The KKK pushed for and achieved pistol registration and CCW restrictions after Dr Ossian Sweet defended himself with a firearm in 1920's segregated Detroit. The 1968 Gun Control act came after Bobby Kennedy's assassination. The Patriot Act happened after 9/11 after Reno and Clinton pushed for the same thing and failed a couple of years earlier, in the name of the War on some Drugs. The 2nd and 4th amendment are the usual attacks.

Right now my concern is the upcoming assault on our first, second, fourth, and tenth Amendment rights. From Politico.

McCarthy’s spokesman confirmed the legislation will target the high-capacity ammunition clips the Arizona gunman allegedly used in the shooting, but neither he or the congresswoman offered any further details.

“Again, we need to look at how this is going to work, to protect people, certainly citizens, and we have to look at what I can pass,” McCarthy said. “I don’t want to give the NRA – excuse the pun – the ammunition to come at me either.”

Pennsylvania Rep. Robert Brady, a Democrat from Philadelphia, told CNN that he also plans to take legislative action. He will introduce a bill that would make it a crime for anyone to use language or symbols that could be seen as threatening or violent against a federal official, including a member of Congress.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47338.html#ixzz1Af8bYLqg
Actually, it's "standard" ammunition magazines (not clips) for a Glock 19. As far as the Brady proposal, it'll be real interesting for what the language is, as it is already illegal to threaten congresscritters. "Could be seen" Real broad language there, and shouldn't pass Constitutional mustard. I'll look for the actual language when it is out.

We need to circle the wagons, and make sure that Congress knows that our freedoms are non-negotiable in any new legislation. Period. We can not let the establishment or left try to do the same thing that was done after the Oklahoma City Bombing. It may sound crass to put things in this perspective and it is unfortunately, but that's how things work in politics (power). Politicians will never let a crisis go to waste. We need to be ready and have a strong defense for any anti-freedom restrictions proposed. No more gun grabs, free speech clampdowns, or Patriot Acts. I remember what Clinton did in 1995, and we need to make sure that any repeat attempt of Clinton is challenged forcefully (like the NRA finally did in 2000) and does not happen again, whether it is by the media, Dupnik, or anybody else. We can not let ourselves be the goats.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Electoral College Math - Part 4 - Mountain West

Mountain States
Solid McCain - 22
Lean McCain - 3
Tossup - 19

The once solid West isn't as solid, and much of that is the clash between Southern Conservatism and Western Conservatism. The West did used to be more democrat in the past as well. Nevada, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico all have voted statewide for democrats over years. Even Idaho was once democrat. The shift to the Republicans occured more in the 80's and 90's with the decline of minining and the rise of cultural leftism. The Clintons were despised in the west over land micromanagement and gun grabs.

Solid Mccain:

Idaho (4 votes) - 68-30% Bush in 2004. 67-28% Bush in 2000. This is one of the most Republican states in the country. Democrats have been working the west hard in recent years, but this would be one of the three last states to flip presidentially along with Wyoming and Utah. The August poll by Greg Smith has McCain up 23%. I expect that to be higher with Palin on the ticket.

Wyoming (3 votes) - Obama may win Jackson...but that's about it. Bush won 69-29% and 69-28%. Wyoming is more libertarian than Idaho, but just as Republican. Mason-Dixon polling in August had McCain up 37.

Utah (5 votes) - Statewide, the most Republican state in the country, thanks to the Mormons. That is despite the democrat leaning Salt Lake City. Bush won 72-26% and 67-26%. In August, Mason-Dixon has McCain up by 39.

Arizona (10 votes) - Arizona isn't solidly Republican anymore as Bill Clinton won it in 1996, but it is solid for McCain and still leans Republican. Bush won 55-44% in 2000 and 51-45% in 2004. More importantly, McCain won there with percentages of 77%, 69%, 56%, and 60%. Two August polls have McCain up 6 (Mason-Dixon) and 10 (Arizona State). I think the 10% is more on target based on the homer factor in the end.

Leans McCain
Montana (3 votes) - Montana is very independent in its voting. It has an old democrat heritage from its mining days, and also a strong anti-Clinton libertarian streak causing it to go heavily to the Republicans in the mid 1990s. Bush won 59-39% in 2004 and 58-33% in 2000. Ross Perot won 26% here in 1992. The governor and both senators are democrat now, and the congressman is Republican. The democrats they like are ranchers and farmers, not ivy-league know it alls who know nothing. That hurts Obama. The Patriot Act hurts Bush and GOP here as it clashes the libertarian streak, something Jon Tester took full advantage of in 2006, winning by 1% against an incumbent. There have been few polls here. Rasmussen's July poll shows a tie. An earlier Rasmussen showed an Obama lead. The other polls from May and February have McCain by 8. (Mason-Dixon and Survey USA). I heard that Rasmussen samples more democrats because of 2006. I didn't put this in tossup because of the last two presidential elections, but I wouldn't call it solidly for McCain right now. I'm interested in the next Montana poll.

Tossup:

Nevada (5 votes) - Home of Harry Reid. Nevada is called a "republican state", but it only was during the Reagan years. Before then it was divided, and in the 1990's it voted for Bill Clinton twice and narrowly Bush twice.In 2004, Bush won 50-48% and 50-46% in 2000. Outside of 1976, Nevada votes for the winner. There is a heavy union presence in Nevada, especially Vegas and Clark County which leans democrat, but not overwhelmingly so. There are three main areas:

Clark County (Vegas) - Kerry won 52-47% in 2004. It was 51-45% in 2000. Kerry gained 90,000 votes here from 2000. Bush gained 60,000 votes. There was a 26,000 vote spread for the democrats here in 2000. There are two Clark County based congressional districts. The Vegas centered won went 57% Democrat. The suburban one was drawn 50-50. The rural and Reno district does have some of Clark County as well, but likely the most Republican areas (that district is 57% GOP). It is the main county here with over 50% of the vote, always giving the democrats a shot to win here.

Washoe County (Reno) - Bush won Washoe County by 7000 votes in 2004 and 11,000 votes in 2008. It was 51-47% in 2004, and 52-43% in 2000. It's going to be well organized for the dems since it Harry Reid always runs well there because he helped them on local projects. He has an easy go in 2004 (with the NRA giving him a free pass), but won by the skin of his teeth in 1998, 1992, and 1986. Reno came through for him.

Rural areas - in 2004, Bush did not get less than 55% in any rural county, and broke 70% in 7 of them. That made the difference in the election, and countered Clark County and the reduced margins in Washoe.

Overall, it will be a close race here again, as it was in 04 and 00. Polls have been all over the place. August polls range from Obama by 5 (CNN) and 1 (Reno Gazette) to McCain by 3 (Rasmussen) and 7 (Mason-Dixon). Translation. It's going to probably be close here. I don't expect Obama to win by 5, nor McCain by 7 here.

New Mexico (5 votes) - Bush won it by 6000 votes in 04 and lost it by 370 votes in 2000. This was the closest state in 2000, not Florida. It is a unique state, but also one that normally votes for the winner with exceptions in 1976 and 2000. It is divided. Northern New Mexico is mostly Democrat with Santa Fe. Albuquerque is competitive and more moderate with a slight democrat leaning. Southeastern New Mexico is almost an extension of West Texas. Southwestern New Mexico is competitive. The polls here are all over the place. CNN has Obama up by 13. I doubt that's the case. Rasmussed has him up by 4. That is more believable. Mason-Dixon has McCain up by 4. These are all August polls however pre-convention.

Colorado (9 votes) - Obama's going all out to win here. I think this is our toughest defense. In the 60's it was more conservative. In the 70's more liberal (Gary Hart, Pat Schroeder). In the 1990's it moved more towards the right after 1992. Today it's going back more to the left. Bush won in 2000 51-42%. In 2004, he won 52-47%. In 2006, the Dems made a big mark with a takeover on the state level. Why? Big money leftists and big organization. Michigan has the radical Jon Stryker. His sister is out in Colorado and funding a lot of the radicals here.

Colorado is a regional state. Denver and Boulder is the liberal base, along with the fast growing ski slopes and their rich leftist transplants. Pueblo area is also democrat and largely minority. The suburbs of Denver are more divided. In 2004 Adams County went democrat, while Arapahoe and Jefferson went Republican. All were close. The Republican base is El Paso County (Colorado Springs), most of the western slopes around Grand Junction, and the Eastern rural areas on the Kansas border. It is a divided state overall, and will be competitive for years to come. The latest poll (September) here by Rasmusses has Obama up 3. August polls ranged from McCain by 3 to Obama by 5. Overall, I think this will be our toughest defense, since Obama has such a strong base and the dems have top organization and money here. McCain can win if the GOP base overperforms in the military and East/West slopes. Turnout is key.