By all means, leave

Back in 2008, I wrote a piece with the line Be Good or Be Gone. Some city jerk moved from Bay City to Frankenmuth and then tried to dictate how they ran things.

The thing with leftists - especially white leftists - is that they turn their current homes into bad places to live, move out, and arrogantly bring their leftism with them to the new place they move to, demanding that the new community conform to their cult of thinking.

I stood up and cheered at this story out of Wyoming. You move there, and then complain about guns and the energy industry? That's like complaining about lakes in Michigan.

By all means, leave

CHEYENNE -- A Newcastle state lawmaker is refusing to apologize after telling a Cheyenne minister that her and her family should leave the state if she doesn't like Wyoming politics.
The electronic skirmish started Thursday after the Rev. Audette Fulbright sent emails to all legislators stating her opposition to House Bill 105, which would have allowed people with concealed carry permits to carry guns at schools, community colleges, the University of Wyoming and public sporting events.

.......
Fulbright, who lives in Cheyenne, isn’t one of Hunt’s constituents. No other lawmakers responded except for Rep. Mary Throne, D-Cheyenne. Throne told Fulbright that the bill had moved to the Senate Education Committee and to contact committee members.
Fulbright and her family moved to Cheyenne from Virginia in July. They made the cross-country venture because the state had good schools and the landscapes remained intact. Fulbright gives her sermons at the Unitarian Universalist Church of Cheyenne. In her email to lawmakers she said she was shocked at the Legislature’s stance on guns this session.

Here's the letter and response. Some folks don't take kindly to Johnny Come Lately's invading and demanding how things should be. Notice the arrogant holier than thou superior tone in the letter as well.

Fulbright's email

Dear Representative,
I hope you are taking care of yourself during this busy session. I know it is a challenging, compressed time.
I am writing to express my grave concern about House Bill 105. Ample evidence has shown that schools and guns do not mix, and in particular, guns in the hands of amateurs/non-professionals is extremely dangerous, especially in any highly-charged situation. to expose our children to greater risk in their schools by encouraging more guns on campuses is something that we cannot allow.
My husband and I moved to Wyoming not too long ago. We believed it was a good place to raise children. With the recent and reactive expansion of gun laws and the profoundly serious dangers of fracking, we find we are seriously reconsidering our decision, which is wrenching to all of us. However, the safety of our family must come first. We are waiting to see what the legislature does this session. I know of other new-to-Wyoming families in similar contemplation. Your choices matter. It would be sad to see an exodus of educated, childrearing age adults from Wyoming as a result of poor lawmaking.
sincerely,
Rev. Audette Fulbright

Hunt's response

Rev. Fulbright,
I’ll be blunt. If you don’t like the political atmosphere of Wyoming, then by all means, leave. We, who have been here a very long time (I am proudly 4th generation) are quite proud of our independent heritage. I don’t expect a ‘mass exodus’ from our state just because we’re standing up for our rights. As to your comments on fracking, I would point out that you’re basing your statement on ‘dangers’ that have not been scientifically founded or proved as of yet.
It offends me to no end when liberal out-of-staters such as yourself move into Wyoming, trying to get away from where they came from, and then pompously demand that Wyoming conform to their way of thinking. We are, and will continue to be, a state which stands a head above the rest in terms of economic security. Our ability to do that is, in large part, to our ‘live and let live’ mentality when it comes to allowing economic development, and limiting government oversight. So, to conclude, if you’re so worried about what our legislature is working on, then go back home.
Sincerely,
Hans Hunt
Representative Hans Hunt
House District 02

If I cross paths with Hans Hunt, I'll buy him a beer for that response. If you don't like the culture of the state, why move there? If you move from an old place to a new place, why demand that it be changed to where you came? That's parasitic and toxic behavior. That's what is going on right now in Oakland County in its slow transition into a new Wayne County. The gold standard of Michigan is no longer the case. It also raises an alarm bell here in Livingston County.

Wyoming is sparsely populated, but fast growing due to the energy based economy growth there. This clown wants to stop that. She doesn't like guns, but goes to arguably the most pro-gun state in the country. GO HOME! If I moved to Detroit, Chicago, or Berkeley, would I demand they accommodate me? No. They are what they are. Leftist areas. I'm not from there. On the same note, I'm not going to sit by and let Detroit values, Chicago values, and Berkeley values invade here either.

Here in Michigan, the fastest growing county in SE Michigan is Livingston County. It's a contrast to Wayne County. Wayne County is democrat and urban. Livingston County is Republican and was (and somewhat still is, at least in character) rural. The tradition of the parties in both places is over 50 years. Livingston County balances its budget. Wayne County is a mess. Livingston County has low key officials who stay out of trouble. Wayne County has Ed McNamara, Bob Ficano, Kwame Kilpatrick, Jennifer Granholm, and Monica Conyers. Livingston County does its job. Wayne County government is featured in Charlie LeDuff's stories. Livingston County is growing. Wayne County is shrinking.

Our challenge here is this. We can not afford Wayne County values to come here. That does not mean we should not welcome Wayne County transplants. There's a big difference. There are a lot of Wayne County transplants who want no part of Wayne County values anymore. We need to welcome those who would like to join us. We should reject those - the flatlanders - who want to change us to Wayne County. That goes for transplants from anywhere, not just Wayne County. Livingston County is a good place to live for a reason. Part of that reason is that it is well run county with lower taxes, balanced budgets, less regulations than its neighbors, and a safe environment (especially by Michigan standards). If it becomes Wayne County and full of leftist democrats, that will no longer be the case.

We need to reject the Fulbright types who arrogantly wish to change us because we are supposedly backwards (while they leave their actual backward lands). We need to welcome those who wish to join us as we move forward and improve on what made us a great place to live to begin with.

Electoral College Math - Part 4 - Mountain West

Mountain States
Solid McCain - 22
Lean McCain - 3
Tossup - 19

The once solid West isn't as solid, and much of that is the clash between Southern Conservatism and Western Conservatism. The West did used to be more democrat in the past as well. Nevada, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico all have voted statewide for democrats over years. Even Idaho was once democrat. The shift to the Republicans occured more in the 80's and 90's with the decline of minining and the rise of cultural leftism. The Clintons were despised in the west over land micromanagement and gun grabs.

Solid Mccain:

Idaho (4 votes) - 68-30% Bush in 2004. 67-28% Bush in 2000. This is one of the most Republican states in the country. Democrats have been working the west hard in recent years, but this would be one of the three last states to flip presidentially along with Wyoming and Utah. The August poll by Greg Smith has McCain up 23%. I expect that to be higher with Palin on the ticket.

Wyoming (3 votes) - Obama may win Jackson...but that's about it. Bush won 69-29% and 69-28%. Wyoming is more libertarian than Idaho, but just as Republican. Mason-Dixon polling in August had McCain up 37.

Utah (5 votes) - Statewide, the most Republican state in the country, thanks to the Mormons. That is despite the democrat leaning Salt Lake City. Bush won 72-26% and 67-26%. In August, Mason-Dixon has McCain up by 39.

Arizona (10 votes) - Arizona isn't solidly Republican anymore as Bill Clinton won it in 1996, but it is solid for McCain and still leans Republican. Bush won 55-44% in 2000 and 51-45% in 2004. More importantly, McCain won there with percentages of 77%, 69%, 56%, and 60%. Two August polls have McCain up 6 (Mason-Dixon) and 10 (Arizona State). I think the 10% is more on target based on the homer factor in the end.

Leans McCain
Montana (3 votes) - Montana is very independent in its voting. It has an old democrat heritage from its mining days, and also a strong anti-Clinton libertarian streak causing it to go heavily to the Republicans in the mid 1990s. Bush won 59-39% in 2004 and 58-33% in 2000. Ross Perot won 26% here in 1992. The governor and both senators are democrat now, and the congressman is Republican. The democrats they like are ranchers and farmers, not ivy-league know it alls who know nothing. That hurts Obama. The Patriot Act hurts Bush and GOP here as it clashes the libertarian streak, something Jon Tester took full advantage of in 2006, winning by 1% against an incumbent. There have been few polls here. Rasmussen's July poll shows a tie. An earlier Rasmussen showed an Obama lead. The other polls from May and February have McCain by 8. (Mason-Dixon and Survey USA). I heard that Rasmussen samples more democrats because of 2006. I didn't put this in tossup because of the last two presidential elections, but I wouldn't call it solidly for McCain right now. I'm interested in the next Montana poll.

Tossup:

Nevada (5 votes) - Home of Harry Reid. Nevada is called a "republican state", but it only was during the Reagan years. Before then it was divided, and in the 1990's it voted for Bill Clinton twice and narrowly Bush twice.In 2004, Bush won 50-48% and 50-46% in 2000. Outside of 1976, Nevada votes for the winner. There is a heavy union presence in Nevada, especially Vegas and Clark County which leans democrat, but not overwhelmingly so. There are three main areas:

Clark County (Vegas) - Kerry won 52-47% in 2004. It was 51-45% in 2000. Kerry gained 90,000 votes here from 2000. Bush gained 60,000 votes. There was a 26,000 vote spread for the democrats here in 2000. There are two Clark County based congressional districts. The Vegas centered won went 57% Democrat. The suburban one was drawn 50-50. The rural and Reno district does have some of Clark County as well, but likely the most Republican areas (that district is 57% GOP). It is the main county here with over 50% of the vote, always giving the democrats a shot to win here.

Washoe County (Reno) - Bush won Washoe County by 7000 votes in 2004 and 11,000 votes in 2008. It was 51-47% in 2004, and 52-43% in 2000. It's going to be well organized for the dems since it Harry Reid always runs well there because he helped them on local projects. He has an easy go in 2004 (with the NRA giving him a free pass), but won by the skin of his teeth in 1998, 1992, and 1986. Reno came through for him.

Rural areas - in 2004, Bush did not get less than 55% in any rural county, and broke 70% in 7 of them. That made the difference in the election, and countered Clark County and the reduced margins in Washoe.

Overall, it will be a close race here again, as it was in 04 and 00. Polls have been all over the place. August polls range from Obama by 5 (CNN) and 1 (Reno Gazette) to McCain by 3 (Rasmussen) and 7 (Mason-Dixon). Translation. It's going to probably be close here. I don't expect Obama to win by 5, nor McCain by 7 here.

New Mexico (5 votes) - Bush won it by 6000 votes in 04 and lost it by 370 votes in 2000. This was the closest state in 2000, not Florida. It is a unique state, but also one that normally votes for the winner with exceptions in 1976 and 2000. It is divided. Northern New Mexico is mostly Democrat with Santa Fe. Albuquerque is competitive and more moderate with a slight democrat leaning. Southeastern New Mexico is almost an extension of West Texas. Southwestern New Mexico is competitive. The polls here are all over the place. CNN has Obama up by 13. I doubt that's the case. Rasmussed has him up by 4. That is more believable. Mason-Dixon has McCain up by 4. These are all August polls however pre-convention.

Colorado (9 votes) - Obama's going all out to win here. I think this is our toughest defense. In the 60's it was more conservative. In the 70's more liberal (Gary Hart, Pat Schroeder). In the 1990's it moved more towards the right after 1992. Today it's going back more to the left. Bush won in 2000 51-42%. In 2004, he won 52-47%. In 2006, the Dems made a big mark with a takeover on the state level. Why? Big money leftists and big organization. Michigan has the radical Jon Stryker. His sister is out in Colorado and funding a lot of the radicals here.

Colorado is a regional state. Denver and Boulder is the liberal base, along with the fast growing ski slopes and their rich leftist transplants. Pueblo area is also democrat and largely minority. The suburbs of Denver are more divided. In 2004 Adams County went democrat, while Arapahoe and Jefferson went Republican. All were close. The Republican base is El Paso County (Colorado Springs), most of the western slopes around Grand Junction, and the Eastern rural areas on the Kansas border. It is a divided state overall, and will be competitive for years to come. The latest poll (September) here by Rasmusses has Obama up 3. August polls ranged from McCain by 3 to Obama by 5. Overall, I think this will be our toughest defense, since Obama has such a strong base and the dems have top organization and money here. McCain can win if the GOP base overperforms in the military and East/West slopes. Turnout is key.

Game 2 - Wyoming - Romney wins (UPDATED)

Organization came through here as expected in a Convention type setup which is strictly party regulars. Wyoming was ignored by most, but not Romney. With the presidential campaign the way it is right now, this may pay off for him. There are 12 delegates here in stake.

I believe it is one delegate or alternate delegate per county outside of Laramie which as one delegate and one alternate.

CASPER, Wyo. - Mitt Romney captured his first win of the Republican presidential race, gaining most of Wyoming's delegates at stake in GOP caucuses on Saturday.

The former Massachusetts governor won seven delegates, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson got two and California Rep. Duncan Hunter won one, meaning no other candidate could beat Romney. Caucuses were still being held to decide all 12 delegates at stake.

Totals so far. - From Wyoming GOP

Delegates From AFP
Romney 8
Thompson 3
Hunter 1

Alternates: (Same as before listed on Wyoming GOP site)
Romney 3
Uncomitted 2
Thompson 1
Hunter 1
McCain 1

Standings Overall after 2 elections
Huckabee 30
Romney 15
Thompson 3
Hunter 1
3 more undetermined so far
On to New Hampshire for Game 3.

Game 2 (GOP) tomorrow - Wyoming - 1/5

This one is being overlooked. There's only 12 delegates out of Wyoming, but that's the same number as New Hampshire.

"AS WYOMING GOES, so the nation"--that's an aphorism that will probably never describe American politics. But tomorrow, Wyoming Republicans will play a more significant role than ever before in determining their party's presidential nominee, when they elect 12 delegates--the same number allotted to New Hampshire--to the Republican National Convention.

If you didn't know the Wyoming GOP is holding an election tomorrow, don't feel too out of the loop. With all eyes fixed on Iowa and New Hampshire, the media--and the candidates themselves--haven't paid much attention to Wyoming either. And there are a few good reasons for that.

After Wyoming is New Hampshire which is Game 2 for the dems and Game 3 for the GOP.