2012 - Electoral College Math

Some are predicting blowouts for 2012. That probably won't be the case. I expect it to be closer than the wave years of 06, 08, and 10. Both sides will be motivated, and I don't think there won't be as much demoralization among base segments. Republicans were unhappy in 06 and 08, and democrats to an extent were in 10. I think motivation levels could vary on the GOP side depending on the nominee. Things are still fluid, but right now, it looks like Romney, Perry, or Cain with Ron Paul getting his share of support. That could change.

The 2010 census changed the electoral college math. It's still 269 to tie and 270 to win. Republicans get a slight advantage over the 2004 and 2008 results, but not enough where it would have changed the 08 results.
2004 and 2008 actual - Bush 286 (50.73%), Kerry 251 (48.27%). Obama 365 (53.2%), McCain 173 (46.7%)
Under today's electoral college:
Bush 292, Kerry 246
Obama 359, McCain 179

The MAJOR difference with that is that it makes the 04 election less close than it was. Ohio had 20 electoral votes. If that 120,000 was closed, under 08's electoral votes, Kerry would have won the whole thing. Under today's numbers, that would have made it 264 for Kerry, needing another 6 votes. Nevada (21000 votes) or Iowa (11000) were also needed. Florida now has 29 electoral votes. It's even bigger than it was in 04 and 00.

Florida is now king.

What's telling here is that the 3-5% national vote swing is the difference between a so called landslide, and a close election. This is one of the reasons why so many politicians screw up when they crow about mandates. Mandates do not exist. Neither Bush, nor Obama had one.

I'm going to divide these states into five categories. The math is slightly skewed to the democrats' favor, because I'm counting a lot of competitive states as leaning democrat. (Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania have been close in 2000 and 2004)

Safe GOP - Not competitive in any of the last three elections
Lean GOP - Won by GOP last three elections, but can be competitive (5pts or less)
Safe Dem - Not competitive in any of the last three elections
Lean Dem - Won by Dems last three elections, but can be competitive (5pts or less)
Bush/Obama states

If one party lose ANY of the lean or non competitive states in their area, it's likely over before it starts. It's going to be a wipeout. Demographics may make things interesting in Arizona or Georgia, but those are states that need to be kept in the fold. Elections are close at times in Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Pennsylvania, but those are firewalls for the opposing party. Some of the previous "firewall" states won by Obama were upsets in Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska Congressional District 2. Those are all game over immediately losses. Yes, it's mathematically possible to lose these "lean" states and still win, but due to demographics, it's not likely. If a democrat loses Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania or Michigan, kiss Florida and Ohio goodbye. Those states have similar demographics and views to a large extent. If a Republican loses Indiana, kiss Ohio and Florida goodbye. If a Republican loses North Carolina, kiss Virginia goodbye. If a democrat loses Oregon, Colorado and Nevada are next. If a Republican loses Montana, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are next.

Safe Republican - 166 votes - Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, both Dakotas, Nebraska outside District 2, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee (exception to 5% rule because Gore's home state), Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, and Alaska.

Lean Republican - 13 votes - Montana and Missouri, both won by McCain with 49%

That gives 179 votes for the GOP to start with.

Safe Democrat - 176 Votes - California, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland, DC, Delaware, Maine district 1.

Lean Democrat - 66 votes - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Maine overall and district 2. At times they are close, but haven't flipped for presidential races since at least 1988.

That gives the dems 242 votes to start with. Again, if any of these "lean" states flip in 2012 - very likely game over.

States/Districts Bush Won Twice:
Nebraska 2, Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio

States Bush Won once:
New Hampshire, Iowa, and New Mexico - 15 votes.

If Obama keeps all the states Bush only won once, he'll be up to 257 needing 13 to win. That would make Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia must wins for the GOP to survive.

Back to the leans. There is no scenario where if the democrats keep the Gore and Kerry states, the republicans can win without Florida. Florida alone would give the dems 271. Game over. That's why Florida is such a key must win state.

So how to the Republicans get from 179 to 270?
1. Florida. - Adding Florida gives the GOP 208. It's not the easiest state to win, but it is a must win under any scenario.
2. North Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska District 2 - These were 49% Obama states and a normally GOP congressional district. These 26 votes are a must for any realistic chance. That and Florida makes it 235 with 35 votes needed. They normally are lean or even solidly Republican in the case of Indiana.

How can the GOP candidate get the 35 remaining votes?
A. Virginia and Ohio - at least one of the two much be flipped. If both are flipped, the GOP needs any other state to win.

If Ohio (now 18 votes, not 20) only is flipped, 17 votes are needed:
A. Colorado and any two of Iowa/Nevada/New Hampshire/New Mexico
B. Nevada, Iowa, and New Mexico

If Virginia only is flipped (13 votes), 22 votes are needed. Colorado's 9 votes are a must win then, as well as three of Iowa/Nevada/New Hampshire/New Mexico

In short, Priority 1 is Florida, followed by getting back Indiana and North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio. If that is done, only one other state is needed. Obama knows this. He's out campaigning heavily right now in Virginia. He was recently in Colorado as well.

Here's an electoral college calculator to check your own scenarios.

Electoral College Math - Part 9 - Scenarios

First off, based on the polls and issues, along with my gut feeling, I moved Iowa to lean Obama. One word. Ethanol.

Now's the actual Math. I have as follows:
Solid McCain - 139
Lean McCain - 61 (North Carolina, Georgia, Montana, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Indiana)
Total McCain - 200

Solid Obama - 171
Lean Obama - 26 (Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Maine's 2nd District)
Total Obama - 197

Assuming this is true, that means McCain needs 70 votes, and Obama 73 votes. (or 72 votes to tie and likely win by legislatures)

I'll seperate the tossups into two categories. "Big 4" and the rest.
Big 4:
Florida - 27
Pennsylvania - 21
Ohio - 20
Michigan - 17
Those four are 85 votes.

Rest:
Virginia - 13
Wisconsin - 10
Minnesota - 10
Colorado - 9
Nevada - 5
New Mexico - 5
New Hampshire - 4

56 votes out of the rest. Total of 141 votes in the tossups.

Assume the "lean" states stay that way (else it is a landslide). Now how big are the big 4 states? The magic numbers are 70 for McCain and 73 for Obama.

Scenario 1 - All four "Big 4" states to one candidate. 85 votes. It's over. Pop the champaign glass. Who ever wins all of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan wins.

Scenario 2 - Three of the big 4. Whoever wins three of the big four states forces the other candidate to almost run the table.

Most likely for this for McCain:
Florida (27), Ohio (20), Michigan (17) - 64 - votes. That gives McCain 264 votes. He then wins if he holds Virginia (13), Colorado (9), or both New Mexico (5) and Nevada (5). He also wins if he flips either Wisconsin (10) or Minnesota.(10) or flips New Hampshire (4) and any other tossup state.

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania - 68 votes - That gives 268 votes to McCain and he wins if he gets one more state listed above.

Less likely for McCain:
Ohio (20), Penn (21), Michigan (17) - I don't see McCain losing Florida and winning these three. That gives him 258 needing 12. Virginia wins, or any combination of two states outside of the 5 or less vote states where he needs 3 (NH, NV, NM)

Florida (27), Michigan (17), Penn (21) - Least likely, since if Ohio flips, Michigan stays blue. Too many similarities. 265 votes, one other tossup state wins outside of New Hampshire which will tie.

I think Florida and Ohio are most likely for McCain, with Michigan and Pennsylvania plausible, but less likely.

More likely for Obama (197 votes):
Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), Florida (27): - 65 votes, giving Obama 262. He then wins if he holds Wisconsin (10) or Minnesota (10), or if he flips Virginia (13) or Colorado (9). Also winning is holding New Hampshire (4) and flipping either New Mexico (5) or Nevada (5)

Pennsylvania (21) Michigan (17), Ohio (20): - 58 votes, giving Obama 255. The magic number is then 15. The following combinations win:
Virginia and any other tossup state:
Wisconsin/Minnesota and Wisconsin/Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, or Nevada
Colorado and Nevada and New Mexico.
Tie possible with:
Wisconsin/Minnesota and New Hampshire
Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire

Less Likely:
Ohio, Florida, Michigan - 64 votes, giving Obama 261. That means 9 votes needed. Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia, or Minnesota win it, or any two of New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida - Least likely, for the same reason why McCain won't win Michigan if Ohio flips. 68 votes giving Obama 265. Any state ourside New Hampshire will win. New Hampshire will tie.

Florida and Ohio will be tougher for Obama. Pennsylvania and Michigan won't be easy, but more likely than the other two.

Scenario 3 - Splitting the Big 4.

McCain - Florida/Ohio - 47 votes for 247
Obama - Pennsylvania/Michigan - 38 votes for 235

This will mimic the last two elections. McCain needs 23 more votes, and Obama 35. Keep in mind that I already conceded Iowa to Obama, which falls in line from 2000, not 2004.

McCain wins with:
A. Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10) or Minnesota (10)
B. Virginia, Colorado (9) and any other state
C. Virginia, New Mexico (5), and Nevada (5)
D. Wisconsin and Minnesota, and any other state
E. Wisconsin (or Minnesota), Colorado, and any other state
F. Wisconsin (or Minnesota), New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire (4)
G. Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire
Virginia and Colorado tie.
Virginia, New Mex/Nevada and New Hampshire tie.

McCain - Florida/Pennsylvania 48 votes for 248, 22 votes needed
Obama - Ohio/Michigan - 37 votes for 234, 36 votes needed
Same Scenarios as above, except also Virginia and Colorado wins.

McCain - Florida/Michigan - 44 votes for 244, 26 votes needed
Obama - Ohio/Pennsylvania - 41 votes for 238, 32 votes needed
Very unlikely (because If Michigan goes McCain so does Ohio, but if I'm wrong)
A. Virginia (13), Wisconsin/Minnesota(10), and one other state.
B. Virginia (13), Colorado (9), and one other state.
C. Virginia (13), Nevada (5), New Mexico(5) and New Hampshire (4).
D. Wisconsin (10), Minnesota(10), and Colorado (9)
E. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and two of New Mexico/Nevada/New Hampshire.
F. Wisconsin/Minnesota(10), Colorado (9), and two of New Mexico/Nevada/New Hampshire

McCain - Ohio/Michigan - 37 votes for 237 votes, need 33 votes
Obama - Florida/Pennsylvania - 48 votes for 245 votes, need 25 votes
It gets tricky here.
A. Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), and Minnesota (10)
B. Virginia, Wisconsin (or MN), Colorado (9), and one other tossup state.
C. Virginia, Wisconsin (or MN), and Nevada and New Mexico
D. Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire
E. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, and one other tossup state
F. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.

McCain - Michigan/Pennsylvania - 38 votes
Obama - Florida/Ohio

See above, almost the same.

McCain - Ohio/Pennsylvania - 41 votes for 241 votes, need 29.
Obama - Florida/Michigan - 38 votes
See above, slightly easier.

The biggest thing this shows is that in order to have a chance, either candidate must win at least two of the "Big 4" states. Three makes it easy to win. If the four are split, a major advantage goes to whoever takes Florida. Without Florida, Virginia is a must win, or McCain will have to run the table to win. With Florida, Virginia makes it much easier, particulary as Wisconsin and Minnesota are more difficult states to win. From what I heard, Colorado is target 1 for the dems. Assuming Iowa is going blue, picking off Colorado makes it very tough, but not impossible to win if Virginia says red. McCain would have to run the table then with New Mexico and Nevada (or pick off Wisconsin or Minnesota). This is why that third state of the big 4 is so important.

If that call is made early for either Pennsylvania or Michigan, then I'm almost certain we win. I can't see either of those two going our way and then end up losing Florida or Ohio. If Obama takes both, it'll be a long night of waiting.

Electoral College Math - Part 8 - Michigan

Home sweet home. This will be more than likely another close race similar to 2000 and 2004. There are a lot of questions about what will happen here. I have all the 2000 and 2004 data on the county pages. They are out of date for 2006 results and 08 previews due to time contraints, but the 2000/2004 stuff is still there and accurate. I recommend looking there if you want to get more detailed than this post here.

John Kerry won 15 counties in Michigan. Al Gore won 24 counties in Michigan (out of 83?) Kerry won one county that Gore lost, Alger County, which is in the UP. Kerry and Gore did underperform in a lot of normally base counties, but there are a lot of democrats which are "local democrats" but not federal democrats. Bush ran into some of that problem in central Oakland County and to a lesser extent in parts of West Michigan where there are "local republican" that aren't "federal republicans."

In 2004, there were 4,839,252 voters. Kerry won the state by 165,707 votes. Gore won the state in 2000 by 217,279 vote. Every region here is important, from Detroit City to the corner of the UP.

Dividing the regions:
1. The UP:
The UP is locally democrat and federally a swing area. They went heavily for Granholm twice, heavily for Bill Clinton, and then voted for Bush twice, or more than likely, against Gore, and against Kerry. These are some of the most independent voters in the state and should not be taken for granted by either party. Bush won the UP by 6462 votes in 2000, and by 6388 votes in 2004. The democrats only won three counties here in 2000 and 2004. Their base counties here are Marquette and Gogebic (Ironwood), which they won both times. Marquette went 53-43% for Gore and 54-45% for Kerry. Gogebic went 48-46% in 2000 and 52-47% in 04. The third county in 2000 was Iron county, which Bush amazingly won in 04 by 9 votes. In 2004, the third county was Alger County which Kerry won by 77 votes after Bush won it by 71 votes in 2000. Houghton County is one to watch. Bush won big there in 2000 and 2004, but for different reasons. The City of Houghton flipped. Bush lost it in 04 after winning it by 10% in 2000. The Nader vote went to Kerry and then some. Bush made up for it in the other parts of the county. Overall, the Eastern UP is more Republican than the Western UP. The whole UP though can not be neglected.

NE Lower:
This is another swing area, and overlooked. Pundits say that "Up North" is Republican. That is NOT the case. I repeat. That is NOT the case. It is socially conservative. There is a difference. Bush did win here, but narrowly, with a spread of 2562 votes (50%) in 2000 and 6805 (53%) votes in 2004. Bush did win every county in what I considered NE Lower Michigan in 2004, and he lost Alpena, Ogemaw, Iosco, and Roscommon Counties in 2000. All four of those flipped. Alpena is a democrat base county on the state level, so that was surprising. Cheboygan, Presque Isle (Rogers City), Montmorency (Atlanta), Alpena, Oscoda (Mio), Alcona, Ogemaw (West Branch), Iosco (East Tawas), and Roscommon Counties were included. Montmorency and Oscoda Counties are the most Republican in this area. The rest are all fairly competitive. Much of this area is represented on the state level by two democrats, Joel Sheltrown and Matt Gillard and by Republican Tony Stamas on the senate level (thanks more to Midland).

Northest Lower:
This is more the base area that the pundits refer to. I do think it's a little shaky up there. The more tradition republican coast is changing, but the interior is more republican these days. Bush won it overall by 26,040 (57%) votes in 2000, and 32,327 (59%) votes in 04, but there is more than meets the eye in SOME of these areas. It was a Republican sweep in the counties I included in NW Michigan outside of Manistee County in 2000. I did NOT include Lake County here, but in West Michigan, so keep that in mind with these numbers. The main thing I notices in the numbers here, and in my travels is that the coastal areas with money are going more purple, while the interior areas are going more red. I think it's cultural issues between liberal outdoors and conservative outdoors. Biking and sightseeing v hunting and snowmobiling. That's overly simplistic and I really like both the coastal and the interior, but there is a clash between the cultures. Grand Traverse County was 59% Bush in 04 and 58% Bush in 2000. Not a lot of change right? Wrong. Traverse City went 51% for Kerry in 2004, and 45% for Gore. The townships masked the numbers. Leelanau County shows it more. Bush won it with 56% in 04, down from 57% in 00. Interior Kalkaska County shows a reverse. Bush won with 56% in 00, and 61% in 04. It's not just Traverse City either, as I've seen signs along the coasts outside of Antrim County. Petoskey and Charlevoix are going more purple as well, to a lesser extent than Traverse City. The two most competitive Counties are Manistee County which is about 50/50 and Benzie County which was close in 2000, although took a right turn in 2004. Frankfort there is still blue however. I do not know if it is cultural or union, as I am unfamiliar with the area. If McCain is going to win this state, he needs to hold the line in the coastal areas, and improve on the interior improvements in 04. Missaukee County is by percentage the 2nd more Republican County in the state. 68% in 2004.

I included Emmet (Petoskey), Charlevoix, Antrim (Elk Rapids), Otsego (Gaylord), Crawford (Grayling), Kalkaska, Grand Traverse (Traverse City), Leelanau (Suttons Bay), Benzie (Frankfort), Manistee, Wexford (Cadillac), and Missaukee (Lake City) Counties.

Saginaw Valley:
I think this is one of the most important areas to watch. The election will be won or lost here. In 2000, Gore won this area by 63,132 (57%) votes. In 2004, Kerry won it by 51,343 (55%). Can McCain knock down Obama's numbers in this social moderate to conservative area, but economic liberal area? That is the question here. Gladwin and Midland went for Bush. Gladwin is not a Republican county, but a 50/50 county, along with Arenac County. Midland County is a 56% base county for the GOP. Most of the real democrat strength comes from three counties. Bay, Saginaw, and Genesee Counties. Bay County is probably the strongest "white" county for the democrats. It's more democrat than next door Saginaw County. 55% (6100 spread) in 2000 and 54% (5600 spread) in 2004. It's more democrat locally than statewise. It's comparable to Downriver. Saginaw County is 54% (9700 spread) in 2000 and 53% (7700 spread) in 2004. I figured it would be more because of the minority heavy areas in the City of Saginaw, Bridgeport, and Buena Vista, but there is also heavily Republican Frankenmuth as well. Frakenmuth is one of the most conservative areas in the state and while small, gave a 2000 vote spread to the GOP, cutting the margins in Saginaw County. The big county here is Genesee County, home of Flint, once Buick City. Gore got 63% (53,200 vote spread) here in 2000, Kerry 60% (44,500) in 2004. The northern and Eastern suburbs (Clio, Montrose, Burton, Davison) are generally democrat in Genesee County, the Southern Suburbs (Fenton/Grand Blanc) more Republican.

I included Arenac (Standish), Gladwin, Saginaw, Bay (Bay City), Midland, and Genesee (Flint) Counties here. The question is whether McCain or Obama can sell here. If either can, I think they win. I don't expect McCain to win here, but I think, if he's smart, he can cut the margin in half. He's got to sell hope in the economy though and expand on his new plans for the economy. He needs to give the conservative democrats there a reason to vote for him. Bush didn't sell enough there (daddy's boy problem). McCain paid his dues and then some in the military. Obama isn't working class enough, and Bush isn't on the ballot.

Central Michigan:
These areas are often included as part of "up North." Bush won the area with 53% (7764 vote spread) in 2000 and 54% (9590 vote spread) in 2004. Two counties went democrat here in 2000, one in 2004. The Democrat base here is Isabella County. It is home to Mt Pleasant and Central Michigan University. It is not a deep blue area, but going more and more blue. Gore won it with 49% and 175 vote spread. Kerry with 51% and a 580 vote spread. I don't see Obama losing Isabella County. Mt Pleasant is 1/4 of the vote there. Only if the rural vote completely turns on him. Clare County is about 50/50. Bush won it in 04 by 150 votes and Gore in 2000 by 350 votes. Osceola County is a base GOP county. Montcalm County is interesting. It's GOP leaning, but has a labor streak to it. Clinton won it. If Kerry or Gore couldn't win it, I can't see Obama winning it. Mecosta is also interesting and runs about 55% GOP. It is a GOP county outside of Big Rapids. Big Rapids is a college town with Ferris State. I'd keep an eye out there. I included Osceola (Reed City), Clare, Mecosta (Big Rapids), Isabella (Mt Pleasant), Gratiot (Alma/St Louis), and Montcalm (Greenville) Counties.

West Michigan:
Some counties many considered North Michigan I put under West Michigan. I'm an East sider, so what can I say. Out west, you consider anything east of Lansing (or Lowell) "Detroit". Even with the expansions, it is overall the most GOP area of Michigan based on vote spread. Bush won it twice with 57% (137,420 spread) and 58% (151,670 spread) of the vote. Three counties went blue here, all twice. Lake County, Muskegon County, and Kalamazoo County. The latter one concerns me the most in 2008.

Lake County (Baldwin) is strongly democrat but small. It went 55% with a 623 vote spread for Gore and 51% with a 173 vote spread for Kerry. There is a sizable black population in Idlewild and Baldwin which may pump numbers up for Obama. I'm not sure how things will go there. Muskegon County is the union capital of West Michigan. It twice went 55% for the dems, more so than Bay City or Saginaw. Kalamazoo County is more narrowly democrat, but I doubt it will be in 08. Western Michigan University. 48% Gore, 51% Kerry. I expect 52-53% for Obama thanks to the university crowd there.

Areas to watch:
Oceana County - Leans GOP, but has a large Mexican population.
Van Buren County - Very close, narrowly won by the GOP.
Kent County - A GOP base county, but Grand Rapids itself leans democrat. How much will it cut the numbers.
Berrien County - Leans GOP, but Benton Harbor will go big for Obama there. Will it cut the numbers?

The rest are base counties. Ottawa is the most GOP area in the state. 72% with a 56,500 vote spread. Newaygo, Ionia, Allegan, and St Joe County should all hit at least 60%.

I included Lake (Baldwin), Mason (Ludington), Oceana (Hart), Newaygo (Fremont), Muskegon, Kent (Grand Rapids), Ionia, Ottawa (Holland), Barry (Hastings), Allegan (Holland), Kalamazoo, Van Buren (Paw Paw), Berrien (Benton Harbor/St Joe), Cass (Dowagiac), and St Joseph (Sturgis) Counties.

South Central/Capital Area:
This is a good bellwether for the state. Gore won this area in 2000 by 4128 votes. Bush won it in 2004 by 16,817 votes. This area is very significant if McCain is going to win.

Two counties went for Gore. Ingham and Calhoun. In 2004, Calhoun County flipped. It is a swing county if there was one. Battle Creek and Albion go democrat, withthe rest of the area going Republican for the most part. The key is how democrat Battle Creek itself goes. It's leans that way, not overwhelmingly. Shiawassee and Eaton Counties are also very competitive. Bush narrow won then in 2000, although won them by a more comfortable margin in 2004. They are very friendly to democrats on the state level however, so don't take them for granted. Clinton County is a base Republican county for the most part, but not as much on the state level. The Lansing influence affects all three of those counties. Clinton County also has a bit of East Lansing moving into Bath. Will that effect the numbers this year? Kerry won Bath Township by 3 votes and East Lansing's Clinton County portion by 99 votes. Few were cast there.

Ingham County is the base of the democrats in this area. It's the home of Lansing and East Lansing. Okemos is also strongly democrat. It went 58% in 2004 and 57% in 2000. In both elections there was about a 22,000 vote spread. McCain will lose big in those three areas, but can make up for some of it in Holt, Mason, and the rural areas. If he can get the spread under 20,000 he'll be a great shape. I don't expect that there.

Jackson is a key county here. It's narrowly Republican with the city leaning democrat and the county leaning Republican. It went 56% in 2004 which surprised me a little. It's normally not that solid. South of the Jackson area, the GOP base counties are Hillsdale and Branch Counties. Lenawaee County is conservative, not republican, but Bush won it by a good margin in 2004. That is Tim Walberg country, and he'll get his backers out to vote. I think all three of them go big for McCain. They have to, if he'll have a chance.

I included Shiawassee (Owosso), Clinton (DeWitt), Eaton (Charlotte), Ingham (Lansing), Jackson, Calhoun (Battle Creek), Branch (Coldwater), Hillsdale, and Lenawee (Adrian) Counties.

The Thumb:
The thumb is conservative, not necessarily republican. There are a lot of ticket splitters here. It's like North Michigan. In fact, two state reps there are democrats, as well as state senator Jim Barcia (partly due to Bay City). Bush did win the area twice with 53% (13,364 spread) and 56% (23,585 spread) of the vote. All of the thumb counties went for Bush. St Clair County is competitive and Tuscola County is sometimes compeitive (more so locally). They both shifted right in 2004. Lapeer leans GOP and was 58% in 2004. Huron County leans GOP (locally competitive) Sanilac County is a GOP base county consistantly. The cultural issues should work well in McCain/Palin's favor here.

I included Huron (Bad Axe), Sanilac (Sandusky), Tuscola (Caro), Lapeer, and St Clair (Port Huron) counties.

SE Michigan (Outside Tri-County)
I included three counties here as I do not consider them "Detroit area" like I do the tri-county area. Livingston County is 1/2 between four metro counties of different areas. Washtenaw County is its own main area. Monroe County is closer to Toledo, Ohio than it is to Detroit. This area overall went 52% to Gore by 20916 votes and 53% for Kerry by 22,248 votes largely on the strength of one county. Livingston County is base GOP. Washtenaw County base democrat. Monroe County is up for grabs each election.

Livingston County went 59% Bush in 2000 with a 15,900 vote spread and 63% for Bush in 2004 with a 24,900 vote spread. If McCain's going to win, it needs to improve on the 2004 numbers because of Washtenaw County.

Monroe County is a swing county. Gore won it in 2000 by 2600 votes(51%) and Bush won it in 2004 by 1400 votes (51%). Western Monroe County leans more Republican and Eastern Monroe County leans more democrat, however democrats can win in the western part of the county, and republicans in the eastern part. It is largely blue collar and has a labor heritage.

Washtenaw County is the number two democrat county in the state. Gore won it in 2000 with 60% and a nearly 35000 vote spread. Kerry won it in 2004 with 63% and a nearly 49,000 vote spread. Most of that gain is from Ann Arbor, Ypsi, and its main townships like Scio, Pittsfield, and Superior. I expect something similar to the latter with Obama. He might not run as well in the rural areas that lean slightly GOP like Manchester, but he'll fit right in at Ann Arbor. He's one of them right to the core.

The only way this section is close is if Monroe goes big for McCain (55%+) and Livingston gets big turnout and a 65%+ for McCain. I can see Livingston going that way. Monroe maybe, for one reason. One thing I notice that surprised me at the McCain event in Sterling Heights was a group of Catholic nuns. I did not expect that at all. Most nuns I do know lean democrat because of pacifism and labor sympathies, although they are pro-life. Monroe is home to the Immaculate Heart of Mary. Depending on the issues, I can see that as an advantage to either side.

Tri-County Detroit area:
Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne Counties. Overall this area went 58% for Gore and 58% for Kerry. The vote spread in 2000 was 322,635 votes and in 2004 was 339,045 votes. These three counties are the key.

Macomb County - Gore won it with 50% and by almost 8400 votes. Bush won it with 50% by slightly over 6000 votes. That's not good enough to win. McCain needs to get at least a 15,000 vote margin here. That means reducing his losses in Warren, Mt Clemens, Clinton Township (must win), St Clair Shores (Must win) Eastpointe, and Roseville, and getting better gains out of the northern tier (Shelby Township, Washington Township, Macomb Township) The most important areas are around M-59 and I-94. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, Harrison Township, Chesterfield Township, and St Clair Shores. That will make or break either candidate.

Oakland County - The most misunderstood county in Michigan. Believe it or not, it got redder in 2004 than it did in 2000. Gore won it with 49% and by almost 7,000 votes, and Kerry won it with 50% and 2760 votes. But, I thought the Knollenberg district almost went for Kerry in 2004? It did, but the county is more than that district, although that district is obviously very important.

McCain's job here is twofold. He must win back the Bush 2004 defectors while also improving on the lesser known parts of the county. Obama has a very good base here. Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, Royal Oak Township and Pontiac are black majority areas. Expect a 50,000 vote defecit from those five areas right off the bat. That, along with outmigration to other counties like Livingston, is why Oakland County is so much harder to win. There are also cultural left areas that will go dem in a big way over on the east end. Berkley, Huntington Woods, Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, Madison Heights, Royal Oak City, Hazel Park (more labor there, bleeding might be stopped), and in Central Oakland - West Bloomfield (unless Obama is viewed as too friendly with Muslims), and Farmington Hills is going that way. Based on 2004 numbers, that will be another 22,500 votes. 72,500 defecit off the bat.
Auburn Hills will be tough to call. It's voted democrat, but also for Tom McMillan. The good news is that can be made up. The key is stopping the bleeding in the money areas. Southfield Township (Bingham Farms, Franklin), Birmingham, Bloomfield Township, Troy, and the Rochester areas took a big step back in 04. Clawson took a step forward. McCain needs to do very there. Birmingham had an 1800 vote spread in 2000, but 1200 in 2004. Bloomfield Hills? 1027 to 851. Troy? 7300 to 6000. In 2004, those areas overall had slightly under 25,000 votes. That needs to go up. The other edges are the best shots. West of I-275 or North of M-59. Novi westward and Clarkston Northward. They moved in a big way towards Bush in 2004. McCain needs to keep that up. That area went 60% for Bush and racked up a 47,000 vote spread. The combination there based on 04 numbers....72,000. Oakland is more than the Bloomfields and the Oxfords, Lake Orions, Clarkstons, Milfords, and South Lyons can not be forgotten. It is a key county in 2008 as the pundits say, but all of it is key.

Wayne County:
John Kerry won Michigan by about 165,707 votes. He won Wayne County by 342,297, and 69%. Gore got 69% and won it by 307,393. Kerry got 94% of the Detroit vote and won it by 285,915 votes, more than the difference in the entire state. With Obama on the ticket, I expect a similar margin if the election is run above board there...if...more if some of the same shenanigans went on as it did in 04. We as Republicans need to make sure that the cheating does not happen.

Outside of Detroit itself, John Kerry won Wayne County 55-44% and by 56,575 votes. Take out Hamtramck and Highland Park within Detroit, and it is 54-45% That area is what needs to be targeted and targeted heavily. Most of it can be seperated into three areas. Grosse Pointe area, Downriver, and Western Wayne County. For those outside of Michigan, Downriver refers to the southern suburbs of Detroit near the Detroit river. Dearborn (and for some uninformed people on the right, it's not Dearbornistan) southward, generally.

The Grosse Pointe area leans republican, but Bush bled heavily there in 2004, as he did in a lot of money areas. McCain can't do that in 08. I threw in the more middle class Harper Woods area as well here. Overall it went 56-43% for Bush, with a 4683 vote spread. McCain needs to do well there.

Western Wayne County is more split. Some areas are democrat, and some republican. The far west is generally more Republican until you go more south to Van Buren and Sumpter closer to the airport (labor). The Ford Rd and Michigan Ave cooridor is very democrat outside of Canton which leans republican by the skin of its teeth. Plymouth (Township, not City) and Northville are mostly solid Republican (but they like Granholm). Livonia leans GOP. Redford is now solidly democrat and Dearborn Heights is as well, but maybe not as much as it was in 04. Garden City, Wayne, Westland, Romulus, Van Buren, Belleville are dem. Inkster is like Detroit. Overall this area went about 53% for Kerry and a 20,240 vote spread. This area can be won with the right candidate or wrong candidate on the democrat side. McCain needs to work this area, particulary Canton, Livonia, and even Westland.

Downriver is strongly labor democrat. It went 58% for Kerry with a 33,000 vote spread. I think McCain can cut this down some in places like Brownstown and Flat Rock, which moved towards the GOP slightly. Grosse Ile is GOP. Allen Park, Trenton, Riverview, Woodhaven, and Gibralter should be targets. Ecorse and River Rouge will go big for Obama. Dearborn will be tough, but Bush DID win it in 2000. Wyandotte, Taylor, and Lincoln Park are solidly democrat, but could their numbers be reduced. It's possible. This area needs to be targeted. There are a lot of seniors in this area, and McCain could do well there. McCain won't win Wayne County, but if he can run close within 5% outside of Detroit itself, he's in very good shape, especially if he pulls in big numbers out of Macomb County.


Overall, I think this state will be down to the wire. I like our chances this year with this candidate and opponent, despite Bush. Bush isn't on the ticket. Granholm is still governor however. If McCain wins here, it's most likely over. Much as the Republicans can not lose Ohio and win, the democrats can not lose Michigan and win. (If Michigan goes Republican, so does Ohio). Turnout is the biggest key here.

Electoral College Part 7 - Ohio

Ohio was the deciding votes in the last election. In 2000, Gore for some odd reason did not contest it strongly. In 2004, Kerry contested Ohio strongly and did enough to win in most years. Bush won in 2000 50-46 and in 2004 51-49. He won in 04 because he racked up big margins in the rural areas, and won big in some of the suburban areas outside of Cincy and Columbus. All roads to election lead through Ohio. There are four big states that can not be lost unless the table is run. For the democrats, that is Pennsylvania and Michigan. For the Republicans that is Florida and Ohio. While it is possible to win without those two, it is very unlikely. There are two September polls. Rasmussen has McCain by 7, Quinnipiac has Obama by 5. That doesn't tell you much except that there's a battle. The GOP overall took a big hit here thanks to Mr. 18%. former governor Bob Taft. I don't know who disliked Taft more, conservatives or democrats. Taft was a crook. Taft was anti-gun. Taft raised taxes. That's not good. This helped the democrats with a major takeover in 2006. Will that continue in 08? We'll see. McCain isn't from Ohio, so that helps.

John Kerry won 16 counties in Ohio. Al Gore won 16 counties as well. The two counties that flipped were Clark County to Bush and Stark County to Kerry. Those are both imporant counties. Clark County is Springfield and Stark County is Canton. The percentages increased in both base counties between 00 and 04. Dividing the area up by regions:

Northeast Ohio:
This is the main base for the democrats. The Cleveland and Youngstown/Warren area. There are 5.6 million voters in Ohio. Over 2 million of them are in Northeast Ohio. 8 of the blue counties are also in Northeast Ohio. The biggest one is Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) - John Kerry got 67% here. Gore got 63% here. That is the biggest reason why 04 was closer than 00. Kerry got 90,000 more votes than Gore. Bush got 30,000 more votes in 04 than 00. Most of the democrat gains were in East Cleveland, the mostly black areas, although they gained a lot of votes in the white areas (Kucinich district) as well. Slightly over 670,000 votes came from Cuyahoga County. Kerry started out with a 227,000 vote spread out of Cuyahoga County. The other counties in Northeast that went over 60% were Mahoning and Trumbull Counties which are Youngstown and Warren. Between those two counties, there are almost 250,000 votes. Those are strong union/labor areas. The other two democrat bases there are Lorain and Summit (Akron) counties, also labor areas. There's about 420,000 more votes in those two areas. Portage (between Cleveland and Youngstown) and Ashtabula (between Cleveland and Erie PA) are democrat leaners but could be competitive. They have about 120,000 votes. The last blue county was Stark County which has 188,000 votes. Kerry won it 51-49 and Bush won it 49-47 in 2000. There are some Republican bases in Northeast Ohio. Geauga County is a 60-40% county with 51,000 votes. Medina (between Lorain and Akron), Wayne, and rural Ashland Counties are also strong bases for the GOP. Lake County is competitive, but usually goes GOP. Overall, Northeast Ohio is not democrat due to cultural issues like some of the Philly burbs. They are democrat due to the union influence. If I have to make a comparison to Michigan, I'd say this area is like a giant mix of Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. Even Dennis Kucinich for years was pro-life. Tim Ryan has had the NRA endorsement in the past. Jim Traficant came from Youngstown and was the most independent member of congress. Can Obama sell here with Bush not on the ticket? Can he sell outside of city centers in Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, and parts of Lorain, Warren and Akron? That remains to be seen. The democrats need to do well in Northeast Ohio to have a chance.

East/Southeast Ohio - This area is why the democrats lost Ohio in 2000 and 2004. It is rural and conservative for the most part. It is not Republican either. Ted Strickland represented this area for years before being governor. Strickland is economic liberal, but pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment. The other part of the district was represented by Bob Ney whose screw ups caused his district to go democrat. Bush won both districts, but neither were solidly republican. This area is politically similar more to West Virginia. It won't vote for an ultraliberal, but Republicans can NEVER take it for granted. Four counties here went blue out of about 21 or 22. Athens County is the major one, going 63%-36% for Kerry and 51%-38% for Gore. It's the most culturally liberal part of Ohio and is home to Ohio University. The other three are Jefferson, Belmont, and Monroe counties. Those are more competitive areas although they lean democrat. The rest of the areas all went for Bush, some by narrow, some by a larger number.

Central Ohio - Franklin County leans Democrat, and all the rest of the counties are solidly Republican, most of which over 60%. Franklin County is Columbus and a few burbs. Outside of Cleveland, this was the big gain for democrats. Kerry won it 54-45% Gore 49-48%. 5000 vote spread became a 48,000 vote spread. Bush made up for 15,000 of it in the surrounding counties, all of them over 60% Bush. Fairfield county spread 14,000 to 18,000. Pickaway 4,000 to 6,000. Madison 3,500 to 5,000. Union, 5,500 to 9,000. Delaware County 19,000 to 26,000. Licking County, 14,000 to 19,000. The other counties north of there are also solid Republican, enough to the area evens out. That said, there's a lot of work that needs to be done in the Columbus area.

Northwest Ohio - Two counties went Blue here. Lucas County (Toledo) and Erie County (Sandusky). Both are working class areas, Toledo industrial and Sandusky is the home of Cedar Point. Erie County is a little more competitive. 51-46% in 2000 and 53-46% in 04. Lucas is a stronghold 60-40% and 58-40%. Ottawa County (Port Clinton) and Wood Counties (Bowling Green) next door to Toledo are competitive, but went for Bush. The GOP base counties here are the rural counties bordering Indiana, and suprisingly to me, Hancock and Allen Counties. Allen surprises me especially, since it has Lima, which I figured was democrat. Allen was 66% for Bush. Hancock 70%. All of the other Northwestern Counties are 60%+ except for Fremont's Seneca County which is 58% for Bush. McCain needs big numbers out of all these area to win. I think Palin helps here.

Southwest Ohio - Overall, this is the main Republican base, but there has been shakeups locally down there that affect the congressional races. I do not know how that will affect the presidency. I hope it doesn't. We'll see. One county went democrat in 2004, two in 2000. Montgomery (Dayton) is a competitive county with the 2nd most votes. 51-49 and 50-48 were the percentages. Clark County (Springfield) went democrat 49-48 in 2000 and for Bush 51-49 in 2004. The only other competitive county at the top of the ticket is Hamilton (Cincy). 53-47% in 2004 for Bush and 54-43% for Bush in 2000. The reason for the reduction? Minority vote. Cincy is almost 43% black. A lot of conservatives are also leaving the state to the Kentucky suburbs, not just the Ohio suburbs. That lowers some of the base. The 43,000 vote spread out of Hamilton County in 04 was reduced to 23,000. The suburbs and rural counties made up for the 20,000 difference and then some. Butler county's spread increased from 40,000 to 53,000. Warren County from 29,000 to 42,000. Clermont 27,000 to 37,000. Miami County from 11,000 to 16,000. Greene County 13,000 to 18,000. That is why Bush survived Ohio in 2004, despite a triple whammy from Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincy.

Can McCain sell? Can Obama sell? I made the solid/lean/tossup categories objectively. My gut feeling here is that McCain will win because Obama won't sell here. If this was a Hillary/Biden ticket, I think Ohio flips.

While all states are important, the big four states in elections are Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The dems can not win without Penn and Michigan, and the Republicans can't without Florida and Ohio. If they split two each like the last two times, then it comes down to smaller states. If three go one way, it's almost impossible to win without a monumental blunder or shocker. The toughest candidate to beat is the one that can sell to these four areas, all of which have a large Reagan Democrat population.

I'll get to the scenarios in part 9. Part 8 will be Michigan.

Electoral College - Part 6 - Midwest

Solid McCain - 11 votes
Solid Obama - 21 votes
Lean McCain - 28 votes
Tossup - 64 votes

Solid McCain
Nebraska (5 votes, all three districts) - There are actually four races in Nebraska for the president. The latest statewide poll has McCain up by 18. In 2004, Bush won it 66-33%, and in 2000 it was 62-33%. District 1 (Lincoln based) went 63-36% and 59-36% in 2004 and 2000. District 2 (Omaha) was 60-38% and 57-39%. Obama may make a run for it, but that's a lot of ground to make up. District 3 is the rural part and was 75-24% and 71-25%.

Kansas (6 votes) - Kansas has three political parties. The "conservative" Republicans. The "moderate" Republicans. The Democrats. It is competitive when the two Republican parties are at each others throats which is common right now with state issues. It hasn't happened in presidential races yet as the two Republican parties seem to be united on Obama. There's no local character involved here. Two August polls have McCain up 23 (Survey USA) and 14 (Rasmussen). With Palin on the ticket, this one is solid since the right won't stay home, and the moderates there probably like McCain quite a bit. Bush won it 62-37% in 04 and 58-37% in 00.

Solid Obama
Illinois (21 votes) - It's a solid democrat state even more so with the homer vote. Gore won it 55-43% and Kerry won it 55-44%. Rasmussen has Obama by 15 in August. That sounds about right here. Almost 40% of the vote is from Cook County (Chicago). It went 70-30 for Kerry giving a 850,000 vote spread. That doesn't account for Champaign, East St Louis, Quad Cities, and Madison County. Kerry won the state by 500,000 votes overall. The Suburban Chicago areas outside of Cook County are slightly Republican and are 1.2 million votes. That makes a small dent, along with the downstate areas. The counties with Peoria and Rockford are 50-50. Obama won 70-30 in 04 against Maryland resident Alan Keyes after dirty tricks by the Obama/Daley/Axelrod camp got Jack Ryan off the ballot. Will he get 70% here this year? Maybe not, but he'll win here.

Lean McCain
North Dakota (3 votes) - The polls have been nasty here for some reason. I haven't seen any non-partisan post convention polls. Bush won the state 63-35% in 2004 and 61-33% in 2000. They are notorious ticket splitters there however and sent two democrats to the senate. There's one August poll by the democrats that have Obama up by 3. One democrat poll in July has McCain up by 3. Rasmussen in July had him up by 1. It's enough of a concern to put this into a lean and not solid category, but past election performance keeps this out of a tossup. The worst case situation for the GOP is that this is West Virginia 2000 revisited. I do not expect that, but I'd keep an eye on it.

South Dakota (3 votes) - The polls haven't been as nasty here as North Dakota, surprising since it is less republican. Bush twice won here 60-38%. The most recent Rasmussen poll has McCain by 4. I have this in the same situation as North Dakota. Past election performance on presidential performance has this as a lean instead of a tossup. I'd keep an eye on here as well.

Missouri (11 votes) - For years it was the national bellwether always voting for the winner. It still is to a degree, although I'd give Ohio the edge there today. That doesn't mean Missouri isn't a battleground. I am surprised Obama hasn't pushed as hard there as he is in Indiana. Missouri is much more winnable for a presidential democrat. Bush won here 53-46% in 2004 and 50-47% in 2000. That's despite Kerry only winning four counties. Jackson (Kansas City), St Louis County, St Louis City, and Ste Genevieve. There is about a million votes in those four areas out of 2.6 million. Boone County is a 50-50 county likely going for Obama as it is home to the University of Missouri. The latest polls in August have McCain up by 10 (PPP - Democrat) and 6 (Rasmussen, non partisan). This one should hold.

Indiana (11 votes) - Obama has been working very hard here. Polls have been favorable as well. Three August polls have McCain up 2 (Howey Gauge), 6 (Survey USA), and 6 (Rasmussen). However, Bush won it 60-39% and 57-41%. The democrats have two strong bases. Lake County (Gary/Hammond) and Monroe County (Bloomington, home of Indiana University). Obama also has some help in the Chicago media here in the northwest part of the state. The keys here are this:
Indianapolis/Marion County - Kerry won it despite losing by 21pts. Obama needs to win big there.
South Bend/Elkhart - Bush won it in 04. It's economic liberal and social conservative. Somehow Obama put win that area big if he'll win the state.
Southern Indiana - It is more democrat, but Bush won big there in 04. Obama has to sell there if he'll win the state.
I can see one of those three things happening, but not all of them. I think this is like Bush's play for California in 2000.

Tossup:
Minnesota (10 votes) - I hesitated to put this in tossup because of its democrat heritage and polls, but the last two presidential elections here were 3% and 2% differences. Kerry won 51-48%, Gore 48-46%. All four August polls have Obama up, ranging from 2%(Survey USA) to 12% (Time). I think things will tighten up, but of the most competitive seats that went blue in 04, I think this will be the hardest for McCain to pick off. It is also the toughest state for me to predict. Mondale won here. So did Paul Wellstone. On the other hand, so did Rod Grams who was as far to the right as Wellstone was to the left. The democrat base is Duluth/Iron Range and Minneapolis/St Paul. There are also some scattered blue counties in the West and South end. The Republican base is the suburban counties surrounding the Twin Cities, and most the rural areas outside of the Iron Range and a few scattered counties. The Rochester area and St Cloud lean Republican, but Rochester isn't a gimme. If McCain can rack up big numbers in the base areas, along with the leaners, he has a shot if he can make inroads in the Iron Range. Whether he can or not remains to be seen.

Iowa (7 votes) - Iowa was one of three states to flip in 2004. Gore won it by about 4000 votes in 2000 and Bush won it by 10,000 votes in 04. Overall, I think this is by far Obama's best chance for a pickup and almost put this as leaning democrat. Iowa has a pacifist streak, and is the most pro-ethanol state in the union. McCain has long been hostile to ethanol. That means trouble. August polls range from Obama up 5 (Rasmussen) to 15 (Time). In short, Eastern Iowa leans democrat and Western and most of Central Iowa leans Republican. Davenport in Eastern Iowa is very slightly democrat with the Dubuque and Waterloo areas more so. The big base is Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. In Central Iowa, Des Moines and Ames areas are competitive, although Obama will likely do very well in Ames as it is a college town. The western area is largely Dutch and about as Republican as Ottawa County in Michigan. The central farm areas are more leaners, although I'm not sure about that with the ethanol issue. I think this one is trouble.

Wisconsin (10 votes) - One of the closest states the last two elections. Kerry won it by 11,000 votes in 04, and Gore by 5700 votes in 2000. There's five main democrat bases. Milwaukee, Dane County (Madison), Rock County (Janesville), the Southwest (Eau Claire, LaCrosse) and Northwest (Superior). The Republican areas are the areas just North of Milwaukee. Unless you count Ottawa County as suburban, Waukesha is probably the most Republican suburban county in the Midwest outside of a couple of the Cincy suburbs. The other suburban areas are strong Republican. Green Bay area(outside 06) leans Republican in federal elections, but I believe it is more ticket splitter. I'm not positive on that, but that's common in the North and things have been competitive. Most of the interior leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so like the rural areas in Nebraska. If McCain can cut the democrat margins in rural areas and the Northwest and hold the areas that Bush had in 2004 he wins. Polls here are starting to get closer. Strategic Vision (R) has the only post convention poll with Obama by 3. Others in August has it 6 (WPRI) and 7 (Rasmussen). It's going to be close here I think once again in the end and come down to turnout.

Ohio (21 votes), Michigan (17 votes)- I'll get to these two states later as I know them best.

Electoral College Math - Part 5 - Pacific

The Pacific Coast is democrat leaning overall outside of Alaska.

Pacific Coast:

Solid McCain - 3
Solid Obama - 59
Lean Obama - 18

Solid McCain:
Alaska (3 votes) - Sarah Palin on the ticket solidifies this state. Alaska has long been Republican, but a couple of scandals in the leadership there have caused a lot of problems in the party. Palin however is immune from that and has an 70% approval rating. Bush won 61-36% in 2004 and 59-28-10% in 2000. Sarah Palin beat former governor Tony Knowles 48-41% in 06 and in the primary beat incumbent Frank Murkowski and another candidate John Binkley. 51-30-19%. The latest poll (Ivan Moore) Aug/September has McCain up 19.

Solid Obama:
Hawaii (4 votes) - Hawaii has long been dominated by the democrats. While it has a Republican governor, that is an aberration compared to its federal races. It only voted for Reagan recently in the 84 landslide. Incumbents do better here as well, as do veterans. On the other hand Barack Obama was born and raised there. Gore won 56-37% in 2000 and Kerry won 54-45%. Ironic part is that Bush ran best among Asians in Hawaii and not whites. That's different than the historical numbers there. The only poll was from February and had Obama up by 30 points. I don't expect that high of a route here, but a 20 pt win by Obama due to his heritage here would not surprise me in the least.

California (55 votes) - Two reason why this once swing state (when not a homer) has gone so democrat. Immigration, defense indusrty and migration. The immigrants moved this state to the left, and many of those who left were Orange County Republicans who used to work for the defense industry. Today it is a regional state with the Coastal area going left and the "inland empire" almost as Republican as Wyoming. Del Norte County, San Diego County, Orange County, San Luis Obispo County, and Ventura County also usually go Republican. It's not enough. Gore won 53-42%, and Kerry won 54-44%. The problem is mostly concentrated in two areas, One Los Angeles County which has 3 million votes and is 63% Democrat. The even bigger problem is the San Francisco Bay area. Every county that touches the bay went for Kerry. Kerry's worst bay county was Solano, which was a 57% win. His best was 83%, San Francisco. There's about 2 million voters there near the Bay. That's 5 million votes from two major areas, out of 13 million total. Take about 70% of the Bay area going democrat, plus 2 million Kerry votes from LA. That's about a 1.6 million vote defecit right off the bat. That's not counting the other strong democrat areas like Santa Cruz, Salinas, Santa Barbara, Imperial County, and Sacramento. Overall, Kerry won by 1.2 million votes. The only shot to win is by dominating the inland empire, holding the base, and picking off enough crossvotes from LA and some of the less insane Bay Area counties (San Jose). That's easier said then done. There may be 5.5 million Bush voters in California, but 6.7 million democrats. The latest polls were two August polls. Rasmussen had Obama by 13. PPIC had Obama by 9.

Leans Obama:

Washington (11 votes) - Washington State is a regional state where East Washington is conservative and very republican, and the Seattle area outvotes it enough to win. I almost posted this as solid Obama, but the latest poll (Survey USA) had this at Obama by 4. Past election results though of Kerry winning 53-46% and Gore winning 50-45% show a distinct democrat leaning here. All of the Bush counties are rural outside of Spokane, Yakima, and Clark (Vancover). That's not enough to win. King County alone has 800,000 voters (out of 2.8 million) and went 64% for Kerry. Without King County, Bush would have won by 70,000 votes. McCain can win it if he sweeps all of the suburban counties and holds the Bush numbers. Pierce County (best known by the TV show COPS), Snohomish County, and eastern King County away from Seattle are the must win areas to have a shot at carrying this state. Not impossible, but it would have to be a landslide win overall to take Washington St. I don't expect any landslides. Obama may have to work here, but it's his to lose.

Oregon (7 votes) - Similar to Washington State, but closer. There's a similar regional pattern, but Kerry won 51-47% and Gore won 47-47-5% in 2000 for a 7000 win. The difference in Oregon to Washington is that the coast away from the big city is more conservative. Suprisingly, even the Salem area (state capitol) went for Bush. The coast in Washington away from Seattle lean democrat outside of Vancover. In Oregon, only Portland metro and Eugene metro went for Kerry. The interior is 75% Bush and almost makes up for Multnomah County's 71% for Kerry vote. Unfortunately, that is about 1/5 of the vote. The key counties outside of the interior are Clackamas and Washington. Clackamas is 50/50 and Washington went 52-46. If McCain runs ahead of pace there, he has a shot. The Oregon polls favor Obama. The two August polls vary. Survey USA has Obama by 3, Rasmussen had him by 10. I think Obama is a very bad matchup for McCain in Oregon, so even with the close elections, I really can't move this into a tossup category unless a couple of Oregon polls have a McCain lead.

Overall, I'd like to see McCain compete hard in the Pacific Northwest to make Obama spend money and time there, but I'm not expecting a win here. If McCain does win Oregon, the election will already have been won with the easier pickups going his way.

Electoral College Math - Part 4 - Mountain West

Mountain States
Solid McCain - 22
Lean McCain - 3
Tossup - 19

The once solid West isn't as solid, and much of that is the clash between Southern Conservatism and Western Conservatism. The West did used to be more democrat in the past as well. Nevada, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico all have voted statewide for democrats over years. Even Idaho was once democrat. The shift to the Republicans occured more in the 80's and 90's with the decline of minining and the rise of cultural leftism. The Clintons were despised in the west over land micromanagement and gun grabs.

Solid Mccain:

Idaho (4 votes) - 68-30% Bush in 2004. 67-28% Bush in 2000. This is one of the most Republican states in the country. Democrats have been working the west hard in recent years, but this would be one of the three last states to flip presidentially along with Wyoming and Utah. The August poll by Greg Smith has McCain up 23%. I expect that to be higher with Palin on the ticket.

Wyoming (3 votes) - Obama may win Jackson...but that's about it. Bush won 69-29% and 69-28%. Wyoming is more libertarian than Idaho, but just as Republican. Mason-Dixon polling in August had McCain up 37.

Utah (5 votes) - Statewide, the most Republican state in the country, thanks to the Mormons. That is despite the democrat leaning Salt Lake City. Bush won 72-26% and 67-26%. In August, Mason-Dixon has McCain up by 39.

Arizona (10 votes) - Arizona isn't solidly Republican anymore as Bill Clinton won it in 1996, but it is solid for McCain and still leans Republican. Bush won 55-44% in 2000 and 51-45% in 2004. More importantly, McCain won there with percentages of 77%, 69%, 56%, and 60%. Two August polls have McCain up 6 (Mason-Dixon) and 10 (Arizona State). I think the 10% is more on target based on the homer factor in the end.

Leans McCain
Montana (3 votes) - Montana is very independent in its voting. It has an old democrat heritage from its mining days, and also a strong anti-Clinton libertarian streak causing it to go heavily to the Republicans in the mid 1990s. Bush won 59-39% in 2004 and 58-33% in 2000. Ross Perot won 26% here in 1992. The governor and both senators are democrat now, and the congressman is Republican. The democrats they like are ranchers and farmers, not ivy-league know it alls who know nothing. That hurts Obama. The Patriot Act hurts Bush and GOP here as it clashes the libertarian streak, something Jon Tester took full advantage of in 2006, winning by 1% against an incumbent. There have been few polls here. Rasmussen's July poll shows a tie. An earlier Rasmussen showed an Obama lead. The other polls from May and February have McCain by 8. (Mason-Dixon and Survey USA). I heard that Rasmussen samples more democrats because of 2006. I didn't put this in tossup because of the last two presidential elections, but I wouldn't call it solidly for McCain right now. I'm interested in the next Montana poll.

Tossup:

Nevada (5 votes) - Home of Harry Reid. Nevada is called a "republican state", but it only was during the Reagan years. Before then it was divided, and in the 1990's it voted for Bill Clinton twice and narrowly Bush twice.In 2004, Bush won 50-48% and 50-46% in 2000. Outside of 1976, Nevada votes for the winner. There is a heavy union presence in Nevada, especially Vegas and Clark County which leans democrat, but not overwhelmingly so. There are three main areas:

Clark County (Vegas) - Kerry won 52-47% in 2004. It was 51-45% in 2000. Kerry gained 90,000 votes here from 2000. Bush gained 60,000 votes. There was a 26,000 vote spread for the democrats here in 2000. There are two Clark County based congressional districts. The Vegas centered won went 57% Democrat. The suburban one was drawn 50-50. The rural and Reno district does have some of Clark County as well, but likely the most Republican areas (that district is 57% GOP). It is the main county here with over 50% of the vote, always giving the democrats a shot to win here.

Washoe County (Reno) - Bush won Washoe County by 7000 votes in 2004 and 11,000 votes in 2008. It was 51-47% in 2004, and 52-43% in 2000. It's going to be well organized for the dems since it Harry Reid always runs well there because he helped them on local projects. He has an easy go in 2004 (with the NRA giving him a free pass), but won by the skin of his teeth in 1998, 1992, and 1986. Reno came through for him.

Rural areas - in 2004, Bush did not get less than 55% in any rural county, and broke 70% in 7 of them. That made the difference in the election, and countered Clark County and the reduced margins in Washoe.

Overall, it will be a close race here again, as it was in 04 and 00. Polls have been all over the place. August polls range from Obama by 5 (CNN) and 1 (Reno Gazette) to McCain by 3 (Rasmussen) and 7 (Mason-Dixon). Translation. It's going to probably be close here. I don't expect Obama to win by 5, nor McCain by 7 here.

New Mexico (5 votes) - Bush won it by 6000 votes in 04 and lost it by 370 votes in 2000. This was the closest state in 2000, not Florida. It is a unique state, but also one that normally votes for the winner with exceptions in 1976 and 2000. It is divided. Northern New Mexico is mostly Democrat with Santa Fe. Albuquerque is competitive and more moderate with a slight democrat leaning. Southeastern New Mexico is almost an extension of West Texas. Southwestern New Mexico is competitive. The polls here are all over the place. CNN has Obama up by 13. I doubt that's the case. Rasmussed has him up by 4. That is more believable. Mason-Dixon has McCain up by 4. These are all August polls however pre-convention.

Colorado (9 votes) - Obama's going all out to win here. I think this is our toughest defense. In the 60's it was more conservative. In the 70's more liberal (Gary Hart, Pat Schroeder). In the 1990's it moved more towards the right after 1992. Today it's going back more to the left. Bush won in 2000 51-42%. In 2004, he won 52-47%. In 2006, the Dems made a big mark with a takeover on the state level. Why? Big money leftists and big organization. Michigan has the radical Jon Stryker. His sister is out in Colorado and funding a lot of the radicals here.

Colorado is a regional state. Denver and Boulder is the liberal base, along with the fast growing ski slopes and their rich leftist transplants. Pueblo area is also democrat and largely minority. The suburbs of Denver are more divided. In 2004 Adams County went democrat, while Arapahoe and Jefferson went Republican. All were close. The Republican base is El Paso County (Colorado Springs), most of the western slopes around Grand Junction, and the Eastern rural areas on the Kansas border. It is a divided state overall, and will be competitive for years to come. The latest poll (September) here by Rasmusses has Obama up 3. August polls ranged from McCain by 3 to Obama by 5. Overall, I think this will be our toughest defense, since Obama has such a strong base and the dems have top organization and money here. McCain can win if the GOP base overperforms in the military and East/West slopes. Turnout is key.

Electoral College Math - Part 3 - South

Part 3 - South
Solid McCain - 103 votes
Lean McCain - 39 votes
Tossup - 40 votes

The three best areas for the GOP have typically been the South, Plains (Midwest and South), and Mountain West. That probably won't change much outside of a couple of outliers that are competitive.

I'll get some heat for this, but I included Texas in the South. I know Texas thinks itself as its own region and not the South or West.

Solid McCain:
Oklahoma (7 votes) - Democrats are locally competitive in Oklahoma, but not in the presidential race. Bush won every county in 2004, even the American Indian counties. In 2000, he lost those areas but still won big. He won 65-34% in 2004 and 60-38% in 2000. Bob Dole even won here easily. A July poll had McCain up by 29. This is as solid as it gets.

Texas (34 votes) - Bush's home state. He won 61-38 in 2004 and 59-38 in 2008. The latest poll in August (Rasmussen) had it a 10 point McCain lead. That's a significant drop from Bush's numbers, but I expect that with the homer vote gone. The best recent democrat run there was Dallas mayor Ron Kirk for Senate in 02, and he got 43%. I think 45% is the ceiling there for Obama, and that's if he runs an ace campaign there. There's not enough of a black vote statewide to win there (11%), and Austin's too small to carry the day.

Alabama (9 votes) - Alabama will vote for a southern democrat at times, but even then did not vote for Clinton in 92 or 96. Bush also won here twice going 62-37% in 2004 and 56-42% in 2000. Two July polls had McCain up by 13 (AEA) and 20 (Rasmussen), which is in between the 00 and 04 numbers. The black vote is significant, but more so in state elections. Alabama is 26% black, enough to make a dent, but not to win the election on their own.

Mississippi (6 votes) - Bush won here 59-40 in 2004 and 58-41 in 2000. It is 36% black, so more winnable than Alabama for the democrats, but the whites here are slightly more Republican than in Alabama (Alabama stayed democrat longer than much of the South). 48% of the white vote here is Evangelical, and the cultural issues, particulary on abortion, are a major factor in the vote. An August Rasmussen poll had McCain up 13 points.

Tennessee (13 votes) - I thought about putting Tennessee in the lean GOP column, but it really is solid now at the federal level. Gore lost here in 2000 despite being a homer. Clinton won twice here narrowly, but Bush won 51-47% in 2000 and 57-43% in 2004. The two latest polls in August expand the 2004 lead. Rasmussen has McCain up by 25 and Ayres McHenry has McCain up by 15. In simplistic terms, East Tennessee is very Republican (Knoxville area, Johnson City), West Tennessee Democrat (Memphis), and Middle Tennessee deciding the election (Nashville democrat, others mixed). Democrats are strong locally, but not as much federally. Harold Ford Jr gave it a good shot in 2006, but was stuck with 48%. Obama won't come close to Ford who was a homer (and who did get 40% of the white vote - far more than Obama will get there).

Kentucky (8 votes) - After the 06 disaster of Ernie Fletcher, I thought about putting this in the leaner category, but need to see more before doing so. Bush won 57-41% in 2000 and 60-40% in 2004. Kentucky has, like much of the South a Federal Democrat v State Democrat attitude. Louisville is slightly democrat, and Lexington is competitive (and likely democrat this year with University of Kentucky). Some of the eastern hills are still yellow dog democrat today, but they are balanced by other hills counties which are as Republican as the others are democrat. Example is Elliot County which went 70% for Kerry and 64% for Gore. Johnson County next door was 63% and 58% for Bush. Right next door and similar demographics. That is the history of the state that gave us both Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson Davis. The biggest reason though I think for its Republican shift is Cincy. There's been a lot of growth in Northern Kentucky, and most of it is Republicans from the Cincy, Ohio area. Those counties there are all 65%+ Republican. The latest poll in August (Survey USA) has McCain up by 18. I'm not expecting that based on Fletcher and 2006, but I think this will be at least a 12 pt win for McCain.

West Virginia (5 votes) - Once among the most democrat states in the union voting even for Dukakis. I would have had this as a tossup if Hillary was the nominee. The Western Pennsylvania results, along with the rejection of Gore and John Kerry by a wide margin stopped me from putting this as a lean GOP. Bush won 56-43% in 2004 and 52-46% in 2000. Rasmussen in June gave McCain an 8 point lead. I'd like to see another poll here, but I don't see Obama selling here. He's the wrong type of Democrat, just like John Kerry.

South Carolina (8 votes) - Generally, the most Republican state in the South overall. It's a competitive state downticket, but more Republican downticket than much of the South which still has a lot of local democrats. Unlike most of the South, it didn't vote for George Wallace, but Nixon. Only Carter won here recently. Bush won 57-41% in 2000 and 58-41% in 2004. Two polls in July had McCain a lead. Research 2000 gave him a 13 point lead, and a democrat polling firm, Public policy polling, gave him a 6 point lead. South Carolina is 29% black, but the only democrat to win there statewide recently was Fritz Holling who was there for 30+ years. I see Obama doing better than Kerry, but not much.

Arkansas (6 votes) - Arkansas is somewhat similar to West Virginia with its strong downticket democrat roots still alive. Bush won twice, 51-46% in 2000 and 54-45% in 2004. If Hillary was on the ticket, this would be a lot more competitive. Obama's too culturally liberal to win here, like John Kerry. A 16% black population isn't enough to put him over the top either. Fast growing and economically conservative Northwest Arkansas is strongly Republican, and Little Rock, East Arkansas (even Kerry won) and South Arkansas is strongly democrat. I expect a lot of ticket splitting here once again.

Louisiana (9 votes) - I think democrats had a shot here, but blew it with an incompentent New Orelans mayor and incompetent governor who didn't run again. Blanco. Bobby Jindal, who should have won in 2003, won in 2007 and is by all accounts, proving himself to be one of the most capable governors there in a long time. Bush won 53-45% in 2000 and 57-42% in 2004, but throw those numbers out after Hurricane Katrina. The polls so far are going heavily McCain. Rasmussen in August shows an 18 pt lead, larger than even 2004. I'm not sure it will be that high, but I don't think it will be a contest.

Leans McCain
Georgia (15 votes) - Georgia is in most years probably the 2nd most Republican state in the south behind South Carolina. It also went 55-43% for Bush in 2000 and 58-41% Bush in 2004, so why am I showing this as leaning and not solid GOP? Two reasons. The latest poll (August, Rasmussen) has McCain up by 9, but earlier polls had it by 2 and 8, with the 8 pointer being a GOP poll. The other reason, more concerning to me as a Republican is the demographics. 35% minority, much of it metro Atlanta, and it is fast growing. This state should stay ours, but Obama has been working the area hard enough to where it needs to be watched. I think the formerly competitive South Georgia will go to McCain, along with the mountain areas outside of liberal Athens. I think whether the GOP wins depends on getting the normal exurbs vote, along with holding the line in Cobb and Gwinnett Counties.

North Carolina (15 votes) - This one scares me more. Obama has a very strong base here. Bush won it 56-43% in 2000 and 56-44% in 2004. It's 21% black, and also has a lot of college towns and Northeastern transplants (although many of the transplants vote Republican - making the Northeast more democrat). The Triangle portion is the strong base for the democrats. Orange County (Chapel Hill) which is like Ann Arbor, Durham, the home of Mike Nifong, and Wake County (Raleigh) which is the state capital. The Charlotte area is a swing area and important in 2008. Bush won it in 2000 and lost it in 2004. The Mountain areas are strongly republican outside of Asheville (College town). The eastern rural areas are competitive and will matter here. Polls show NC close. Five polls in August (pre-convention) show McCain leading from 2-6 points. The democrat poll has him at 3% and the republican poll has him at 6%.

Tossups:

Virginia (13 votes) - One of the most regional states in the South. It has shifted towards the democrats because of DC government workers to go along with a 20% black base. Signs were on the horizon as Bush only won 52-44% in 2000, although he improved to 54-45% in 2004. While Bush improved in 2004, Northern Virginia shifted more and more to Kerry. The bad news, and Obama know it - The rich areas there shifted more democrat. Alexandria and Arlington are 66% democrat now, and Fairfax strongly leans Democrat. Two exurban counties there, Loudoun and Prince William, are no longer gimmees. Outside of DC, the democrat areas are heavily minority like Richmond, Norfolk, and Hampton. Where Bush made up for a lot of his losses were in the Republican interior and the formerly democrat leaning Southwest area. He ran good enough for a slight edge in Tidewater, winning big in military friendly Virginia Beach and Chesapeake which are not gimme areas either. I think the biggest advantage for the GOP here is McCain and his military background. Northern Virginia will be a major challenge however, and that's why I have this as a tossup. Two September polls have McCain up 2. Rasmussen and Survey USA. A democrat poll in August had Obama up 2. It's even here for now.

Florida (27 votes) - Along with Ohio, this is THE must win for Republicans. Florida is a microcasm of the entire country. There is the "South" in the panhandle. There are military areas. There is New York South. There is the Midwest. There are black areas. There is Cuba, Haiti, Columbia, and every ethnic group you can think of here. It usually runs 1-2% to the right of the popular vote. Bush won it by 537 votes in 2000, and by a "landslide" of 52-47% in 2004 thanks to getting a million more votes than in 2000. In 06, there was some backlash against DC, but Charlie Crist won 52-45% for Jeb Bush's open gubenatorial seat. Florida can be divided into these sections

1. North Florida. This is the Republican base of Florida. It's heavily Southern and military. 75%+ of the vote on the panhandle is common. The democrats do well in Tallahassee (Florida State) and Gainesville (University of Florida), but the Republican take the rest of the area, including Duval County - Jacksonville.

2. I-4 Corridor/Central Florida - From Tampa/St Pete to Orlando to Daytona Beach down to the Space Coast. This is the area that decides most elections. Orlando leans Democrat. Tampa and St Pete itself leans democrat, but the burbs go Republican. The area itself there is close to 50/50. Daytona Beach leans Democrat, but the Space Coast leans Republican (Melbourne area). Lakeland leans Republican. The most Republican areas are north of Orlando.

3. Southwest Florida - The gulf coast south of Tampa was a strongly republican leaning area in 2004, but the vote there isn't a gimmee. They almost sent a democrat to congress in 2006. I'd keep an eye out there.

4. Gold Coast - The Democrat base. Palm Beach where people don't know how to read ballots (Buchanan and Gore look nothing alike), Broward County, and Miami-Dade County. Palm Beach and Broward are over 60% democrat each. Miami-Dade is closer because of the Cuban population, but the blacks, Jews, liberal whites, and others outvote the Cubans. It went 53% in 2004. Palm Beach and Broward areas are mostly black or "New York South" and usually vote that way. The democrats have a 350,000 vote margin from those three counties. Luckily, there are almost 8 million voters.

The latest polls for Florida are close. The only September poll (Rasmussen) shows a tie. The four August polls are as follows. Mason-Dixon - Obama by 1, Strategic Vision (R) - McCain by 7, Quinnipac - McCain by 4, Kitchen Group (D) - McCain by 3.

Translation - Florida will be close once again.

Electoral College Math - Part 2, Mid Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic states are also strongly democrat in its leanings, similar to New England.

Solid Obama - 47 Votes
Lean Obama - 15 Votes
Toss up - 21 Votes

Solid Obama States:
New York (31 votes) - Kerry won 58-40% and Gore won 60-35%. The latest polls are three August polls. Rasmussen has Obama by 19% Quinnipac has Obama by 21. Siena has Obama by 8%. Bush closed the gap a bit in 04, but it still wasn't close. There's too many demographic changes. Long Island and Westchester are now almost solidly blue, and New York City is more blue. Reagan won Queens. Bush made inroads there and got Staten Island to flip, but there aren't enough blue collar Irish and Italians to make up for the liberal out of town transplants, NYU, old money, and minority vote. Manhattan went more democrat in 04 than in 2000. Upstate is almost 52-48% and will have to be closer to 65-35% GOP for McCain to win. I suspect there will be numbers similar to 2004 here, maybe slightly better.

Delaware (3 votes) - With Biden on the ticket, this state should be solid for Obama and not just a Democrat leaner. Kerry won 53-46% and Gore 55-42% which is enough for an outside look, but not with a home state candidate. The only poll was a February poll where Obama was up by 9% Biden's worst election was in 2002...58%. I'm writing Delaware off.

Maryland (10 votes) - One of the most consistant states for the democrats. This is due to government workers in DC, along with a close to 30% black popuation. Kerry won 56-43% and Gore won 57-40%. The latest poll from Rasmussen shows a 10 point Obama lead. It's underwhelming for Maryland, but I don't see it flipping and expect it to increase on Election Day because there's too much of a base. Even if McCain takes Baltimore, Charles, and Howard counties, there's a million votes out of Prince George County (DC East and minority), Montgomery County(DC North and culturally leftist), and Baltimore City and it averages out to about 75% democrat. There is a 520,000 vote gap that needs to be made up from those counties alone, more than the City of Detroit's gap here in Michigan. This is in a state with 2.3 million voters total. That's just too much to make up unless there is a significant infighting on the left and a great GOP candidate team like Bob Ehrich and Michael Steele in 2002.

Washington DC (3 votes) - I do not believe the Republicans ever won DC. They won't this year either. There are no polls for DC, but when Kerry and Gore rack up 89-9% and 85-5% wins, there doesn't need to be a poll. Not even George Washington could win here if he was a Republican.

Lean Obama State:
New Jersey (15 votes) - I think the Republicans are going to try to make a run here. They normally do late as polls tighten, but the dems usually win it on election day by a greater than expected number. It went 53-46% for Kerry and 56-40% for Bush. Bush made many inroads in 2004, can McCain keep them in 08 after the 06 close calls there (District 7). The latest polls in August Obama up by 10. I suspect similar numbers to 2004 here in the end, which are typical for the state. If Jersey flips, it'll be over early. The only real shot is if McCain can break through South Jersey, while improving on Bush's improvements in North Jersey. It's possible, but I won't put money on it. Too much Camden, Orange, Newark, Jersey City, Atlantic City, and culturally liberal suburbs.

Tossup:
Pennsylvania - In my opinion, this is one of the most important battleground states this election, along with Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Michigan. It was close the last two elections. Kerry won 51-48% and Gore 51-46%. Recent polls there have a 3-7 point Obama lead, pre-convention. It was a 6-10 point lead for awhile. In the end, I expect this to be a 1-5% race...either way. The Primary report on the democrat's side was there. It showed Obama's weakness in blue collar areas. The primary votes were not even close. From past elections, Kerry won 13 counties in 2004. Gore won 18 in 2000. Bush won all the rest.

Either James Carville or Paul Begala jokingly referred to Pennsylvania as Pittsburgh and Philly, with Alabama in between. That is an exaggeration, but the "T" section is Republican leaning mostly with the most democrat portions of the state in the Southwest and Southeast areas. I think there these areas in no particular order will tell the biggest story of the election.

1. Philly. The democrats got a 415,000 vote spread from Philly, and won the state by 140,000 votes. Obama will win Philly. That is not in dispute. What is in dispute is how much. He won it 65-35% in the primary. Will Philly go 70-30% in 08 or go 81-19% like it did in 2004. I would like to see the returns out of South Philly (Rocky) and the swing area in Northeast Philly.

2. Philly suburbs. The democrats have been making big gains here since the Clinton years. In the primary, Obama won the 57% Kerry Delaware and 52% Bush Chester County. He narrowly lost 56% Kerry Montgomery County and lost badly in 51% Kerry Bucks County. Bucks County and Chester County are IMO the major areas to watch.

3. Conservative Base Counties. Lancaster and York Counties, along with the other rural areas. Lancaster and York Counties are 65% and 63% Bush areas in 2004 that combine for almost 500,000 votes. Will they go for McCain/Palin by that margin? Obama won Lancaster in the primary. Dauphin County went 58-42 Obama in the primary. Bush got 54% in Dauphin in 04. Cumberland next door was close in the primary, but 64% for Bush in 04. One Bush county from 2000 and 2004 is Centre County. It was Obama's 2nd best county in the primary besides Philly. 60% for Obama. It was 51% for Bush in 2004. I think that county flips.

4. Western PA. Pittsburgh, it's suburban counties, Johnstown, and Erie up North. Obama was trounced here in the primary. He'll have to make up ground here if he is going to win PA. Most of those counties, outside of Alleghany, are winnable for either party, although they are historically democrat leaning. These areas like John Murtha democrats. I don't mean by foreign policy, but domestic policy. Murtha always wins. Why? Because he brings home the bacon, votes against gun control in most cases, and has a pro-life reputation. I expect Alleghany County (Pittsburgh) to go for Obama, but the question here is how much. It is a 57% county, but can Obama match it? The other counties are closer and range from 53% Democrat (2004) to 57% Republican (2004). In order: Erie, Fayette, Beaver, Washington (Dem), Cambria (usually dem,but went for Bush), Greene, Lawrence, Mercer, Westmoreland, and Crawford. The rest are major base counties for Bush so I didn't include them. These 10 counties are ones to watch.

5. Eastern PA - Scranton, Wilkes Barre, Bethlehem, Allentown, Reading. This area is quite similar to Western PA in its blue collar views. This is also a steel area. This area leans "Bob Casey Democrat" (pro-gun, pro-life, and pro-union) and is competitive in all elections. In 2004, Berks, Schuylkill (almost a base GOP county, but historical democrat), Carbon, and Monroe Counties went for Bush. Leigh and Northampton Counties are true Bellwether counties. Luzerne and Lackawanna are the base democrat counties there. Wilkes-Barre and Scranton. Luzerne was only 51% Democrat in 04. Lackawanna was 56% Democrat (59% for Gore). It was a 75% Hillary Clinton county over Obama however. I think McCain could sweep all of these counties, at least by a small margain, outside of Lackawanna County which is too yellow dog, even moreso than Pittsburgh's county. If I'm wrong on Lackawanna and it goes for McCain, McCain likely wins Pennsylvania barring a miracle in Philly.

Overall, this is once again going to be a tough hard fought race in Pennsylvania. It's a little bit Northeast/Mid Atlantic in attitudes in parts, part rust belt Midwest, and part Appalachian. It's a little bit of American, so this should not be a surprise.

Electoral College Math - Part 1 - New England

I thought about the electoral college math when the latest Gallup poll out has McCain leaning by 4% and 3%. Rasmussen has a lot of polls out, and that one was a tie. Those are the two most recent polls, before that Hotline had Obama up by 6, CBS was tied, and CNN had Obama up by one. The translation? It's anybody's game. A good site for poll checking is Real Clear Politics. It shows a lot of different pollsters.

One of my professors back in a political science class I took at MSU said this best. Polls are a snapshot in time. That means they are not the election. Sometimes they get them right, oftentimes they are slightly off but relatively close to the actual results. Sometimes they are way off. That does not mean that the polls are wrong. It could mean that, and it could also mean that the people had a different opinion the next day, or two months from now on election day.

National polls and the popular vote are important, but it is the states that matter most. I haven't had a lot of strong original material here since my 2nd Amendment Supreme Court preview close to a year ago, so I'll start something here.

The goal of each campaign is to get 270 Electoral votes from 50 states, Washington DC, and five seperate electoral districts. All the states except two, along with Washington DC, have a winner take all format. All the states have two (senate) electoral votes plus one vote for every congressional district. DC has 3 votes. The two states that do not have winner take all formats are Maine and Nebraska. Those two states award two votes for the winner of the state, plus one vote for winning each congressional district. It has not mattered much recently. Maine's 2nd district is sometimes close, but leans democrat. Gore won it by 3% and Kerry by 6%. Maine's first district is more democrat and I expect will easily go that way again in 2008. All three Nebraska district are solidly Republican. Even in the democrat congressional tide in 2006, none of those districts, even Omaha or Lincoln, were within 10%, and local democrats do much better in the plains than national democrats.

Taking first past federal election history, secondly polls, and lastly the candidates themselves, this is how I currently have the states.

New England:
Solid Obama - 29 votes
Lean Obama - 1 vote
Tossup - 4 votes

I don't think there is a lot of doubt here. Some people have Connecticut or Maine going for McCain over Obama, but that's a pipe dream unless there is a Dukakis blunder of momumental proportions. If either of those two states go for McCain, it's over and it will be a landslide, at least compared with the last two elections.

Solid Obama states in New England:
Vermont (3 votes) - Kerry won with 59% Gore won with only 51%, but that was due to 7% going for Nader. Bush got 41% in 2000 and 39% in 2004. There hasn't been a poll since February, but one had Obama up 57-36 (Survey USA) and the other 63-29 (Research 2000). This is one of the safest states in the country for Obama, if not the safest. I except Vermont to be Obama's top state in the country. It culturally fits the white base of Obama.

Massachusetts (12 votes) - A name that starts with Mc may help McCain, but it won't be enough. Even if he wins the blue collar whote vote, there's still the very strong university vote and sizable minority populations in Boston and Springfield. Kerry won 62-37 and Gore won 60-33-6. The polls show some weakness for Obama here compared to previous democrats, with the latest August poll (Rasmussen) showing a 51-39 Obama lead. I expect most of the undecideds to come home in the end based on previous showings.

Rhode Island (4 votes) - Massachusetts South, a little more blue collar. Kerry on 59-39% Gore won 61-32% Obama will struggle with the Catholic vote to a degree, but not as much here as elsewhere. The last poll (Brown Univeristy) and only August poll has Obama 51-McCain 30.

Connecticut (7 votes) - A mixture of New York influence, Boston influence, and two democrat strongholds of Hartford and New Haven. The last two elections had Kerry win 54-44% and Gore win 56-38% The last poll was in July by Rasmussen and had a 53-40% Obama lead. I'm hearing some talk about Connecticut and Maine being dark horses to flip McCain now. This was before a lot of the national momentum, but the last two election results can not be overlooked, nor can Hartford and New Haven's major bases, combined with the growth of the New York influence. I'd love to see a 50 state strategy, preferably long term, but I think this is a big reach. If I'm wrong, it'll be a landslide.

Solid/Lean Obama:
Maine (2 votes, 1 vote, and 1 vote) - I have Maine overall as solid for Obama as well as Maine 1. Maine 2 I have has a leaner. Under the Maine/Nebraska system, there are three presidential races in Maine. First is at statewide for two votes with the other two being for that district. In order of difficulty for Republicans is Maine 2, state wide, and Maine 1. District 1 went 55-43% Kerry and 50-43-7% Gore. It contains Portland, a democrat stronghold. Maine 2 went 52-46% Kerry and 48-45-7% Gore. It is more socially moderate and blue collar compared to District 1, although it has the democrat stronghold of Lewiston. I can possibly see a competition in District 2, but District 1 is a stretch, and Maine as a whole has moved more towards the democrats.

Toss up:
New Hampshire (4 votes) - One of the few states that flipped in 2000/2004. The myth is that Massachusetts transplants turned this once solidly Republican state to a swing state. The reality is that according to exit polls in 2004, Massachusetts transplants voted for Bush. Native New Hampshire residents and other state transplants did not. Western New Hampshire did him in in 04 along the Vermont border, along with Concord. Manchester, the major city near Massachusetts went for Bush along with that border. The transplants there voted against Taxachusetts. It was the rest of the state that voted against him. The races here were close. Kerry won 50-49% in 2004, and Bush won 48-47% in 2000. Bush is very unpopular there today though, much like the rest of New England. There is still a strong libertarian streak in New Hampshire, and if McCain can tap it based on his spending, he's got a chance to flip the state. If its isolationist streak comes back like it did in 2006, big trouble. The latest poll (Rasmussen) from August has it 47-46 Obama. I think this could be another close race typical of New Hampshire.