This is a continuing series on the census numbers. Part I is here. This focuses on Wayne County.
Wayne County as a whole lost 240,578 people. Noticing trend here is this. Wayne County is shedding white people in a big way. There is some growth in the far downriver areas and near Northville/Canton towards Ann Arbor, but the inner-ring burbs near Detroit are shedding a lot of people.
Detroit (D) lost 237493. Lost 44,000 whites and 185K blacks. Was 10.5% White, 81.2% Black, 5% Hispanic. Now 7.8% White, 82.2% Black, 6.8% Hispanic. Only the Hispanic population grew. Detroit had white and black flight.
Dearborn (D) actually gained 378 people. 98,153 people. Middle Easterners are classified as whites for census purposes, so I'm not sure if there were big ethnic changes or not. If there was, it was mostly due to Middle Easterners, likely Muslims. A lot of the Middle Eastern Christians are now in Macomb County. There is black growth here as well, not as much as elsewhere bordering Detroit.
Highland Park (D) lost 4970 to 11,776. Across the board across racial lines.
Hamtramck (D) lost 553 to 22432. The loss was almost entirely among whites (Poles likely). The black and Asian (Bangladeshi or Pakistani mostly I believe) populations gained heavily. Was 60.4% white, 14.9% black, and 10.3 Asian, now 53% white, 19.1% black, and 21.4% Asian
Harper Woods (D) is going through a massive white flight. Dropped 18 people overall to 14,236. There was a loss of 5000 whites. It was 84.9% White, 10.2% Black, now 48.5% White, and 45.3% Black. I am surprised at how quick the change happened here. A lot of it was school flight.
Grosse Pointe Park (slight D) is going to be interesting in the next 10 years. Lost 888 people to 11,555. Lost of 1800 whites. It was 91.2 White, 2.9 black. Now 83% White, 10.5% Black. This is long been the most liberal of the Pointes. Will the whites there that love diversity live among it? The same thing is happening on a smaller scale among the other Pointes (Slight R) but not nearly on the same scale.
Redford (D) - Lost 3260 overall to 48,362. White flight has been going on here too for years, especially on the North end (and SE portion near Joy/Telegraph) near the Detroit and Southfield borders. Was 86.7% White, 8.5% Black, now 64.7% White and 28.7% Black. I thought the numbers would have changed more, but I'm more familiar with the northern part of Redford than southern part.
Livonia (slight R) lost 3603 - 96,342. Lost 7000 Whites. Was 94.1% White, 0.9% Black, and 1.9% Asian, 1.7% Hispanic, now 90.1% White, 3.4% Black, 2.5% Asian, 2.5% Hispanic. It is becoming diverse, or is the same thing going happen here as Redford?
Dearborn Heights (D) lost 494 - 57,774. Lost at least 4000 whites even if you consider Arabs white. Was 89.3% white, 2.1% black, 2.2% Asian, and 3.4% Hispanic. Now 83% White, 7.8% Black, 1.7% Asian, 4.7% Hispanic. I think a lot of the change here was in the area bordering Inkster and Parkland/far Warrendale portion of Detroit which massively changed after the City Workers left when the residency clause was outlawed.
Westland (D) lost 2.9%, down to 84,094. Lost 13,000 whites. Was 85.6% White, 6.7% Black, now 73.5% White, 17.1% Black. Same thing on much smaller scale in Garden City and Wayne. Westland borders Inkster to the Southeast.
Inkster (D) lost 15.8%, down to 25,369. More whites than blacks left, but it was across the board out migration.
River Rouge (D) lost 20.3%, down to 7903. Only Hispanics gain, but more whites than blacks left. Was 49.9% White, 41.8% Black, and 5% Hispanic. Now 49.8% Black, 34.8% White, and 11.2% Hispanic. Same thing happened in Ecorse. These northernmost downriver communities border Detroit.
Melvindale (D) - Lost 20 people, down to 10715. Lost 1600 whites. Was 81.7% White, 5.2% Black, 8.9 Hispanic, now 66.6% White, 10.8% Black, and 18.3% Hispanic. SW Detroit is expanding there.
Allen Park (Slight D) - Lost 4% to 28,210. Big growth among Hispanics here in Ford Country, part of which borders Detroit. Was 4.7% Hispanic, now 8.1% The black population doubled as well, but is only at 2.1% Whites dropped, but still higher percentage than nearby areas. Allen Park should be stable as long as Ford is.
Lincoln Park (D) - Dropped 4.7% to 38144. Lost 5500 whites. Was 89.2% White, 2% Black, 6.4% Hispanic, now 76.3% White, 5.7% Black, 14.9% Hispanic. Similar to Melvindale on a smaller scale.
Southgate (D) - Dropped 89 people to 30047. Lost 2000 whites. Was 90.9% white, 2.1% black, and 4% Hispanic. Now 84.5% White, 5.4% Black, 6.5% Hispanic.
Wyandotte (D) - Dropped 7.6% to 25883. Unlike Southgate, there wasn't much minority growth here outside of 500 Hispanics.
Trenton (Slight D) and Riverview (Slight D) didn't change much.
Southern Downriver gained, mostly among minorities.
Woodhaven (Slight D) gained 345 to 12875. Was 90.8% White, 2.3% Black, 3.5% Hispanic, now 85.2% White, 5.2% Black, and 5.5% Hispanic. Stable.
Gibralter (Slight D) gained 392 to 4656. Gains across the board among all ethnic groups.
Brownstown Township (D) had gains across the board, up 7638 to 30627. So did Huron Township (Swing) up 2142 to 15879, and Flat Rock (Slight D) up 1390 to 9878.
Rockwood (Slight D) dropped 153 to 3289. Few ethnic changes.
Towards the airport, Taylor (D) lost 2797 to 63,131. Lost 8,000 whites. Was 84% White, 8.7 Black and 3.2 Hispanic, now 74.4% White, 15.7% Black, and 5.1% Hispanic.
Romulus (D) went a dramatic change. It actually gained 1010 to 23989 people, but lost 3500 whites. It was 64.3% White, 29.8% Black, and now 49% White, 42.7% Black.
Sumpter Township (D) dropped 2307 to 9549. Losses were across the board here about equally.
Van Buren Township (D) gained 5262 to 28821. The white population actually dropped 1000. Was 81.2% White, 12% Black, now 63% White and 28.5% Black. This will be an area to watch. Van Buren Township is fairly rural. Belleville inside the township stayed about the same, although the minority increases were smaller than Van Buren Townnship.
Canton Township (Swings) - gained 13807 to 90173. One of the few areas where I'd actually consider integrated a bit instead of just percentages that look "diverse". Gains were across the board, smaller among whites than other ethnics. Blacks and Asians (Indians) were the big increase. Was 82.3 White, 4.5% Black, 8.7 Asian, now 70% White, 10.1% Black, 14.1% Asian.
Plymouth Township (R) - Dropped 274 to 27524. This one really surprised me compared to neighbors in Northville and Canton. Same percentages of whites and blacks left, although Asians and Hispanics gained. Few changes overall. Plymouth City (Swing) gained 110 to 9132. Few changes among ethnic lines here too.
Northville Township (R) - Gained 7461 to 28497. Big gains across the board, especially by Asians. The White and Black percentages dropped despite number increases. Was 88.1% White, 4.3% Black, and 4.2% Asian. Now 80.9% White, 3.6% Black, and 11.2% Asian.
As for political representation in Wayne County, there is currently parts of four congressional districts (Conyers, Clarke, Dingell, McCotter), 8 state senate districts (5 Detroit D, 1 Suburban D, 1D winnable for R's, 1 R winnable for D's), and 23 state rep districts (11 Detroit, 1 Detroit/Pointes lean D, 7 suburban D, 1 D winnable for R, 3 R winnable for D.) These were based on Wayne County's population of 2,061,162 and Michigan's population of 9,938,823. Wayne County's new population is 1,820,584. Michigan lost population overall to 9,883,640.
Population is 705,974 per Congressional District after losing one seat overall. Some articles state there is up to 5% variation. NOT true with CONGRESSIONAL districts. There can be with state districts. Population is 260095 (within 13004) per state senate district, and 89851 (within 4492) per state rep district. There is more limited municipal breaks with state/rep senate seats which means some reps here are in big trouble.
I'll get to Oakland County next.
Showing posts with label Census. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Census. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Michigan census numbers in. Some observations.
Yesterday was the day was the big day with the official census numbers being released. I'm going to look at this more in depth as more data is shown.
The big news is that Detroit lost 230,000 residents over the past 10 years. It is down to 713,777, smaller than Indianapolis and Columbus, Ohio. This is a city that was once a world class city before the so called "progressives" ruined it from Jerry Cavanagh onward to Coleman Young and all those city council and school board members who kept getting re-elected time and time again. Detroiters made their decisions, and now have to decide if they want to make a comeback, or do the same old thing, blame everybody else, and vote 93% Democrat again and again. It's their choice. I just hope that 93% of the 230,000 who left Detroit don't bring their crappy voting habits with them and ruin the areas they move to. Detroit CAN come back, if Detroiters want to and put the effort needed to come back.
Swing State Project, a left wing blog actually does a real good job looking at the districts. Michigan lost a district, so most areas have to shed population. Some were big enough where they have to shrink. One of these districts will be eliminated, and it will be from the Southeast part of the state.
Benishek - MI-01 - 650,222 - needs to gain 55,752
Huizenga - MI-02 - 698,831 - needs to gain 7,143
Amash - MI-03 - 694,695 - needs to gain 11,279
Camp - MI-04 - 686,378 - needs to gain 19,596
Kildee - MI-05 - 635,129 - needs to gain 70,845
Upton - MI-06 - 671,883 - needs to gain 34,091
Walberg - MI-07 - 676,899 - needs to gain 29,075
Rogers - MI-08 - 707,572 - needs to shrink 1,598
Peters - MI-09 - 657,590 - needs to gain 48,384
Miller - MI-10 - 719,712 - needs to shrink 13,738
McCotter - MI-11 - 695,888 - needs to gain 10,086
Levin - MI-12 - 636,601 - needs to gain 69,373
Clarke - MI-13 - 519,570 - needs to gain 186,404
Conyers - MI-14 - 550,465 - needs to gain 155,509
Dingell - MI-15 - 682,205 - needs to gain 23,769
If Michigan is going to keep two federal voting rights act districts (black majority) which is likely to avoid a court challenge (and it helps Republicans in other districts), the loser will likely be Sander Levin. They are going to have to pick up suburban black votes, and the most likely places are Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, Royal Oak Township, and maybe Eastpointe and part of Warren these days. It won't be hard in Michigan. The "tipping point" is alive and well, and I believe the number in Michigan historically has been 20-25%. I'd argue it at 15% actually.
Whether the tipping point is good or bad depends on who you ask. What I think is this. Those (of whatever color) leaving Detroit, Highland Park, Inkster, etc have choices and decisions to make. They can do what brought harm to the old city, to make a change. Communities are struggling with that right now. Southfield awhile back had a big story of the clash between recent Detroit transplants and longtime residents (both who were black). As far as the flight goes, it is what it is. Is it racist? Some of it is, especially when it comes to school decisions. Is it bad? I'd say it's a case by case basis based on the individuals moving to town. If people are leaving because of hard working people who look different are moving to town and control their kids, bettering their way of life, then it is bad. Those are good neighbors like any other. The good part of "diversity" came to Howell. Some of the whites nearby were more trouble than the blacks and Hispanics. If people are leaving their areas because gangbangers are moving to town, then its a whole different matter. That's why I judge tipping points and white flight on a case by case business. Some areas I think it's due to the former, some the latter.
The counties that lost population are:
Alcona (Slight R) - Sunrise Coast -6.6%
Alger (Slight D) - UP -2.6%
Alpena (Slight D) - Sunrise Coast -5.4%
Arenac (Slight D) - Sunrise Coast - -8.0%
Bay (D) - Bay City -2.3%
Berrien (R) - SW MI -3.5%
Branch (R) - South Central MI -1.2%
Calhoun (Swing) - Battle Creek Area -1.3%
Charlevoix (R) - NW MI -0.5%
Cheboygan (R) - NE MI -1.0%
Chippewa (Slight R) - UP -0.1%
Clare (Swing) - North Central -1.1%
Crawford (R) - North Central -1.1%
Delta (Swing) - UP -3.8%
Dickinson (slight R) - UP - 4.8
Genesee (D) - Flint area -2.4%
Gladwin (Swing) - North Central -1.3%
Gogebic (D) - UP -5.5%
Huron (Slight R) - Thumb -8.2%
Iosco (Swing) - Sunrise Coast -5.3%
Iron (Slight D) - UP -10.0%
Keweenaw (Slight R) - UP -6.1%
Luce (Slight R) - UP -5.6%
Mackinac (Slight R) - UP -6.9%
Menominee (Swing) - UP -5.1%
Montmorency (R) - NE MI -5.3%
Oceana (Slight R) - West MI -1.1%
Ontonagon (Swing) - UP -13.3%
Oscoda (R) - NE MI -8.1%
Presque Isle (Swing) - NE MI -7.2%
Roscommon (Swing) - North Central -3.9%
Saginaw (D) - Saginaw area -4.7%
St Clair (Swing) - Thumb/Port Huron -0.7% (That surprises me)
St Joseph (R) - SW MI -1.8%
Sanilac (R) - Thumb -3.1%
Schoolcraft (Slight D) - UP -4.7%
Shiawassee (Swing) - Mid MI -1.5 (Surprises me)
Tuscola (Slight R) - Thumb -4.3%
Van Buren (Swing) - SW MI - 5 people
Wayne (D) - Detroit/Downriver -11.7%
The counties that gained population are:
Allegan (R) - West Michigan +5.5%
Antrim (R) - Northwest MI +2.1%
Baraga (Slight R) - UP +1.4%
Barry (R) - West MI +4.2%
Benzie (Slight R) - Northwest MI +9.6%
Cass (Slight R) - Southwest MI +2.4%
Clinton (Slight R) - Lansing Area +16.5%
Eaton (Swing) - Lansing Area +3.9%
Emmet (R) - NW MI +4.0%
Grand Traverse (R) - Traverse City area +12.0%
Gratiot (R) - Mid MI +0.4%
Hillsdale (R) - South Central +0.3%
Houghton (R) - UP - +1.7%
Ingham (D) - Lansing/East Lansing +0.5%
Ionia (R) - West MI +3.8%
Isabella (Swing) - Mt Pleasant +11.0%
Jackson (Slight R) - South Central +1.2%
Kalamazoo (Slight D) - SW MI +4.9%
Kalkaska (R) - NW MI +3.5%
Kent (R) - Grand Rapids area +4.9%
Lake (D) - NW MI +2.4%
Lapeer (R) - Thumb +0.4%
Leelanau (Slight R) - NW MI +2.8%
Lenawee (Slight R) - SE MI +0.9%
Livingston (R) - SE MI +15.3%
Macomb (Swing) - Detroit Area +6.7%
Manistee (Swing) - NW MI +1.0%
Marquette (D) - UP +3.8%
Mason (Slight R) - NW MI +1.5%
Mecosta (R) - NW MI +5.6%
Midland (R) - Midland area +1.0%
Missaukee (R) - North Central +2.6%
Monroe (Swing) - SE MI +4.2%
Montcalm (Slight R) - West MI +3.4%
Muskegon (D) - West MI +1.2%
Newaygo (R) - West MI +1.3%
Oakland (Swing) - Detroit area +0.7%
Ogemaw (Slight D) - NE MI +0.3%
Osceola (R) - North Central +1.4%
Otsego (R) - North Central +3.7%
Ottawa (R) - West MI +10.6%
Washtenaw (D) - Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti +6.8%
Wexford (R) - NW MI +7.4%
The population losers are the industrial centers first which are most democrat. The thumb, Sunrise Coast/SE MI, and the UP lost population. Whether that's considered losing or winning depends on who you ask up there. The big gangs are in Macomb County, Grand Rapids/Holland area, College Town areas, Livingston/Monroe Counties, and Northwest MI. Surprising to me was small gains in Lapeer and losses in St Clair and Shiawassee County.
Outside of Marquette area, Ann Arbor burbs, and Lansing burbs, more democrat areas lost population. Republican areas and swing areas mostly gained. Hopefully the newcomers don't bring what screwed up their old home to these areas, like what happened in Bath Township in 2008. That's always a concern. Like the doctor's first rule says, do no harm. If you're moving to an area that's a good place to live, the first thing to research is how it got that way.
With redistricting here, the big losers will be likely Wayne County, Sander Levin/Gary Peters, and possibly Benishek, Camp, and Kildee, although that's admittedly stretching it.
Wayne County loses on state rep/senate representation due to population loss. Simple as that. As for Levin and Peters, their problem is that they are white democrats, which are always a favorite target for two reason. 1. They are stronger statewide. 2. Voting Rights Act protects, especially on congressional levels, minority majority interests. Many Republicans outside the districts often like VRA districts because it packs a bunch of democrats in an area. If we're stuck with John Conyers no matter what we do, then let's help other reps that need it. I expect two VRA districts. Whether Conyers in Palmer Park and Clarke on Detroit's Eastside are combined into one remains to be seen, but I don't expect that. Personally, I'd rather go after Peters or Levin anyway.
Since Detroit's lost over 200K, there's not enough for two fully Detroit based districts anymore. Since Metro Detroit is still very segregated, VRA districts can still be enacted. I would not be surprised to see one district catch more of of the changing burbs to shore up McCotter's district (Redford, Westland, along with Inkster and most of Detroit) and the other taking in Southfield, Oak Park, and maybe even S Warren/Eastpointe and/or Pontiac.
As for Benishek, Kildee, and Camp, all have to expand some. Kildee, or less likely Beniskek/Camp will likely have to take some of the thumb from Miller. Benishek can probably secure himself with Grand Traverse County, but that costs Camp. Camp is in Midland. He can take some of the slight dems on the sunrise coast, but you have Bay County nearby as well. His district is right now safe for him, but it's more tenuous on paper. I wouldn't feel safe there. Another issue with Bay County is Jim Barcia. Barcia is a very popular former Congressman/State Senator with strong pro-2a credentials. His old district was much of the sunrise coast, thumb, and Bay/Saginaw Counties. I doubt Camp or Benishek would want to take him on. I expect for that reason that Bay County will stay with Kildee. Once I see possible maps updated, I'll see what can be done.
The big news is that Detroit lost 230,000 residents over the past 10 years. It is down to 713,777, smaller than Indianapolis and Columbus, Ohio. This is a city that was once a world class city before the so called "progressives" ruined it from Jerry Cavanagh onward to Coleman Young and all those city council and school board members who kept getting re-elected time and time again. Detroiters made their decisions, and now have to decide if they want to make a comeback, or do the same old thing, blame everybody else, and vote 93% Democrat again and again. It's their choice. I just hope that 93% of the 230,000 who left Detroit don't bring their crappy voting habits with them and ruin the areas they move to. Detroit CAN come back, if Detroiters want to and put the effort needed to come back.
Swing State Project, a left wing blog actually does a real good job looking at the districts. Michigan lost a district, so most areas have to shed population. Some were big enough where they have to shrink. One of these districts will be eliminated, and it will be from the Southeast part of the state.
Benishek - MI-01 - 650,222 - needs to gain 55,752
Huizenga - MI-02 - 698,831 - needs to gain 7,143
Amash - MI-03 - 694,695 - needs to gain 11,279
Camp - MI-04 - 686,378 - needs to gain 19,596
Kildee - MI-05 - 635,129 - needs to gain 70,845
Upton - MI-06 - 671,883 - needs to gain 34,091
Walberg - MI-07 - 676,899 - needs to gain 29,075
Rogers - MI-08 - 707,572 - needs to shrink 1,598
Peters - MI-09 - 657,590 - needs to gain 48,384
Miller - MI-10 - 719,712 - needs to shrink 13,738
McCotter - MI-11 - 695,888 - needs to gain 10,086
Levin - MI-12 - 636,601 - needs to gain 69,373
Clarke - MI-13 - 519,570 - needs to gain 186,404
Conyers - MI-14 - 550,465 - needs to gain 155,509
Dingell - MI-15 - 682,205 - needs to gain 23,769
If Michigan is going to keep two federal voting rights act districts (black majority) which is likely to avoid a court challenge (and it helps Republicans in other districts), the loser will likely be Sander Levin. They are going to have to pick up suburban black votes, and the most likely places are Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, Royal Oak Township, and maybe Eastpointe and part of Warren these days. It won't be hard in Michigan. The "tipping point" is alive and well, and I believe the number in Michigan historically has been 20-25%. I'd argue it at 15% actually.
Whether the tipping point is good or bad depends on who you ask. What I think is this. Those (of whatever color) leaving Detroit, Highland Park, Inkster, etc have choices and decisions to make. They can do what brought harm to the old city, to make a change. Communities are struggling with that right now. Southfield awhile back had a big story of the clash between recent Detroit transplants and longtime residents (both who were black). As far as the flight goes, it is what it is. Is it racist? Some of it is, especially when it comes to school decisions. Is it bad? I'd say it's a case by case basis based on the individuals moving to town. If people are leaving because of hard working people who look different are moving to town and control their kids, bettering their way of life, then it is bad. Those are good neighbors like any other. The good part of "diversity" came to Howell. Some of the whites nearby were more trouble than the blacks and Hispanics. If people are leaving their areas because gangbangers are moving to town, then its a whole different matter. That's why I judge tipping points and white flight on a case by case business. Some areas I think it's due to the former, some the latter.
The counties that lost population are:
Alcona (Slight R) - Sunrise Coast -6.6%
Alger (Slight D) - UP -2.6%
Alpena (Slight D) - Sunrise Coast -5.4%
Arenac (Slight D) - Sunrise Coast - -8.0%
Bay (D) - Bay City -2.3%
Berrien (R) - SW MI -3.5%
Branch (R) - South Central MI -1.2%
Calhoun (Swing) - Battle Creek Area -1.3%
Charlevoix (R) - NW MI -0.5%
Cheboygan (R) - NE MI -1.0%
Chippewa (Slight R) - UP -0.1%
Clare (Swing) - North Central -1.1%
Crawford (R) - North Central -1.1%
Delta (Swing) - UP -3.8%
Dickinson (slight R) - UP - 4.8
Genesee (D) - Flint area -2.4%
Gladwin (Swing) - North Central -1.3%
Gogebic (D) - UP -5.5%
Huron (Slight R) - Thumb -8.2%
Iosco (Swing) - Sunrise Coast -5.3%
Iron (Slight D) - UP -10.0%
Keweenaw (Slight R) - UP -6.1%
Luce (Slight R) - UP -5.6%
Mackinac (Slight R) - UP -6.9%
Menominee (Swing) - UP -5.1%
Montmorency (R) - NE MI -5.3%
Oceana (Slight R) - West MI -1.1%
Ontonagon (Swing) - UP -13.3%
Oscoda (R) - NE MI -8.1%
Presque Isle (Swing) - NE MI -7.2%
Roscommon (Swing) - North Central -3.9%
Saginaw (D) - Saginaw area -4.7%
St Clair (Swing) - Thumb/Port Huron -0.7% (That surprises me)
St Joseph (R) - SW MI -1.8%
Sanilac (R) - Thumb -3.1%
Schoolcraft (Slight D) - UP -4.7%
Shiawassee (Swing) - Mid MI -1.5 (Surprises me)
Tuscola (Slight R) - Thumb -4.3%
Van Buren (Swing) - SW MI - 5 people
Wayne (D) - Detroit/Downriver -11.7%
The counties that gained population are:
Allegan (R) - West Michigan +5.5%
Antrim (R) - Northwest MI +2.1%
Baraga (Slight R) - UP +1.4%
Barry (R) - West MI +4.2%
Benzie (Slight R) - Northwest MI +9.6%
Cass (Slight R) - Southwest MI +2.4%
Clinton (Slight R) - Lansing Area +16.5%
Eaton (Swing) - Lansing Area +3.9%
Emmet (R) - NW MI +4.0%
Grand Traverse (R) - Traverse City area +12.0%
Gratiot (R) - Mid MI +0.4%
Hillsdale (R) - South Central +0.3%
Houghton (R) - UP - +1.7%
Ingham (D) - Lansing/East Lansing +0.5%
Ionia (R) - West MI +3.8%
Isabella (Swing) - Mt Pleasant +11.0%
Jackson (Slight R) - South Central +1.2%
Kalamazoo (Slight D) - SW MI +4.9%
Kalkaska (R) - NW MI +3.5%
Kent (R) - Grand Rapids area +4.9%
Lake (D) - NW MI +2.4%
Lapeer (R) - Thumb +0.4%
Leelanau (Slight R) - NW MI +2.8%
Lenawee (Slight R) - SE MI +0.9%
Livingston (R) - SE MI +15.3%
Macomb (Swing) - Detroit Area +6.7%
Manistee (Swing) - NW MI +1.0%
Marquette (D) - UP +3.8%
Mason (Slight R) - NW MI +1.5%
Mecosta (R) - NW MI +5.6%
Midland (R) - Midland area +1.0%
Missaukee (R) - North Central +2.6%
Monroe (Swing) - SE MI +4.2%
Montcalm (Slight R) - West MI +3.4%
Muskegon (D) - West MI +1.2%
Newaygo (R) - West MI +1.3%
Oakland (Swing) - Detroit area +0.7%
Ogemaw (Slight D) - NE MI +0.3%
Osceola (R) - North Central +1.4%
Otsego (R) - North Central +3.7%
Ottawa (R) - West MI +10.6%
Washtenaw (D) - Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti +6.8%
Wexford (R) - NW MI +7.4%
The population losers are the industrial centers first which are most democrat. The thumb, Sunrise Coast/SE MI, and the UP lost population. Whether that's considered losing or winning depends on who you ask up there. The big gangs are in Macomb County, Grand Rapids/Holland area, College Town areas, Livingston/Monroe Counties, and Northwest MI. Surprising to me was small gains in Lapeer and losses in St Clair and Shiawassee County.
Outside of Marquette area, Ann Arbor burbs, and Lansing burbs, more democrat areas lost population. Republican areas and swing areas mostly gained. Hopefully the newcomers don't bring what screwed up their old home to these areas, like what happened in Bath Township in 2008. That's always a concern. Like the doctor's first rule says, do no harm. If you're moving to an area that's a good place to live, the first thing to research is how it got that way.
With redistricting here, the big losers will be likely Wayne County, Sander Levin/Gary Peters, and possibly Benishek, Camp, and Kildee, although that's admittedly stretching it.
Wayne County loses on state rep/senate representation due to population loss. Simple as that. As for Levin and Peters, their problem is that they are white democrats, which are always a favorite target for two reason. 1. They are stronger statewide. 2. Voting Rights Act protects, especially on congressional levels, minority majority interests. Many Republicans outside the districts often like VRA districts because it packs a bunch of democrats in an area. If we're stuck with John Conyers no matter what we do, then let's help other reps that need it. I expect two VRA districts. Whether Conyers in Palmer Park and Clarke on Detroit's Eastside are combined into one remains to be seen, but I don't expect that. Personally, I'd rather go after Peters or Levin anyway.
Since Detroit's lost over 200K, there's not enough for two fully Detroit based districts anymore. Since Metro Detroit is still very segregated, VRA districts can still be enacted. I would not be surprised to see one district catch more of of the changing burbs to shore up McCotter's district (Redford, Westland, along with Inkster and most of Detroit) and the other taking in Southfield, Oak Park, and maybe even S Warren/Eastpointe and/or Pontiac.
As for Benishek, Kildee, and Camp, all have to expand some. Kildee, or less likely Beniskek/Camp will likely have to take some of the thumb from Miller. Benishek can probably secure himself with Grand Traverse County, but that costs Camp. Camp is in Midland. He can take some of the slight dems on the sunrise coast, but you have Bay County nearby as well. His district is right now safe for him, but it's more tenuous on paper. I wouldn't feel safe there. Another issue with Bay County is Jim Barcia. Barcia is a very popular former Congressman/State Senator with strong pro-2a credentials. His old district was much of the sunrise coast, thumb, and Bay/Saginaw Counties. I doubt Camp or Benishek would want to take him on. I expect for that reason that Bay County will stay with Kildee. Once I see possible maps updated, I'll see what can be done.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Waste of Money by the executive branch
I'm sure you all have seen the ads from Census 2010. It's well known that every 10 years, we have the census. Soon the forms will be coming to be filled out. I thought it came in today. Nope.
Instead, I got a $0.44 first class mail telling me the census form will be in approximately one week from today. Thanks a lot. This is a major waste of my tax money. Anybody that is familiar with the costs of political campaigns knows how much mailings cost. This one is no different except that it is at our expense. There are about 110,000,000 households in the US. This .44 mailing adds up. About $48 million in postage alone. That doesn't include about 110,000,000 envelopes, sheets of paper, laser printer depreciation, toners, and labor for that gigantic mailing.
I'll give it one credit. It was quick. It was addressed from Phoenix yesterday, and I got it today.
Other than that, this was a gigantic waste. They should have saved the $50 million plus and just sent the actual census form instead of the one week warning.
This is just one more example why people don't trust Washington DC with their money. $50 million here, $50 million there. Pretty soon, it's up to 13 trillion.
Instead, I got a $0.44 first class mail telling me the census form will be in approximately one week from today. Thanks a lot. This is a major waste of my tax money. Anybody that is familiar with the costs of political campaigns knows how much mailings cost. This one is no different except that it is at our expense. There are about 110,000,000 households in the US. This .44 mailing adds up. About $48 million in postage alone. That doesn't include about 110,000,000 envelopes, sheets of paper, laser printer depreciation, toners, and labor for that gigantic mailing.
I'll give it one credit. It was quick. It was addressed from Phoenix yesterday, and I got it today.
Other than that, this was a gigantic waste. They should have saved the $50 million plus and just sent the actual census form instead of the one week warning.
This is just one more example why people don't trust Washington DC with their money. $50 million here, $50 million there. Pretty soon, it's up to 13 trillion.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Bachmann, the Census, and ACORN
Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann is causing a stir regarding her refusal to answer many of the questions on the 2010 census.
First off, the shady organization ACORN should be put under investigation as an organization for voter fraud. Many of their employees and/or associates have been convicted of voter fraud in the past regarding registration. They need to be far away from the census which should not be politicized. By law, the census is required to be non-partisan.
As far as refusing to answer questions on the census, well that is against the law, and the census is one of the issues that is specifically enumerated to the federal government. The law states:
It's a $100 fine. It's a $500 fine for a "false answer." In other words, it's a traffic ticket financially. I'm not sure however if it is considered a civil infraction of eqivalent, or a misdemeanor without doing more research. Exceptions are made for religious purposes. Those questions can be refused an answer. Now, I need to check and see HOW I can answer them.
Census 2010 has its website out. 2010.census.gov - It is something we all need to keep an eye on to make sure that this doesn't become a nightmare due to the shady and unsavory characters of ACORN. So far, little is known except that Gary Locke appointed former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial as chair of the advisory commission. "New Orleans Mayor" automaticaly gets my guard up a bit. That's not exactly the most cleanly run city in this country. It's right there with Obama's Chicago and Boss Daley when it comes to corruption. By law, the census is supposed to be non-partisan, so a close eye needs to be kept here.
There is no long form for the census this year.
However, the American Community Survey replaced it, and is required by law. Heads up there. This replaces the long form and is what likely strongly concerns Bachmann.
Now as far as I'm concerned, name and number of people in the household, is the only thing that SHOULD be asked. The rest is none of their damn business. I'd like to see government stop classifying people by race. If we ever are going to get past race in this country, it starts with that. Start treating people as individuals. The one that pisses me off through is income (ACS Survey). That one I will do whatever legally possible to give an answer that does not lie or give them what they want to see.
The purpose of these surveys and census information outside of counting people and redistricting information is for government programs. This is used for determining government funding - most of which shouldn't be the job of the federal government to begin with outside of federal infastructure (Interstate Freeways, US Highways). The more that hampers this, the better. Most of this stuff should be a state and local issue, not the domain of Washington DC.
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann told the Washington Times that she and her family will not be fully filling out the 2010 census forms.
Bachmann, a Republican, said her family will only be indicating the number of people in the household, because "the Constitution doesn't require any information beyond that."
Bachmann believes the upcoming census to be "very intricate" and "very personal" and expresses concerns about ACORN's involvement in the data collection. The community organizing program came under scrunity after charges of voter registration fraud during the 2008 presidential elections.
"I think what the threat of ACORN would be deluding the ballot box and the effectiveness of our vote," she said. "They will be in charge of going door to door and collecting data from the American public, this is very concerning."
Bachmann also expressed frustration at the president's backing for ACORN, saying he has supplied $8.4 billion to ACORN since he has come into office, a number that far surpasses the $53 million given in the past 15 years.
First off, the shady organization ACORN should be put under investigation as an organization for voter fraud. Many of their employees and/or associates have been convicted of voter fraud in the past regarding registration. They need to be far away from the census which should not be politicized. By law, the census is required to be non-partisan.
As far as refusing to answer questions on the census, well that is against the law, and the census is one of the issues that is specifically enumerated to the federal government. The law states:
Whoever, being over eighteen years of age, refuses or willfully neglects, when requested by the Secretary, or by any other authorized officer or employee of the Department of Commerce or bureau or agency thereof acting under the instructions of the Secretary or authorized officer, to answer, to the best of his knowledge, any of the questions on any schedule submitted to him in connection with any census or survey provided for by subchapters I, II, IV, and V of chapter 5 of this title, applying to himself or to the family to which he belongs or is related, or to the farm or farms of which he or his family is the occupant, shall be fined not more than $100.
It's a $100 fine. It's a $500 fine for a "false answer." In other words, it's a traffic ticket financially. I'm not sure however if it is considered a civil infraction of eqivalent, or a misdemeanor without doing more research. Exceptions are made for religious purposes. Those questions can be refused an answer. Now, I need to check and see HOW I can answer them.
Census 2010 has its website out. 2010.census.gov - It is something we all need to keep an eye on to make sure that this doesn't become a nightmare due to the shady and unsavory characters of ACORN. So far, little is known except that Gary Locke appointed former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial as chair of the advisory commission. "New Orleans Mayor" automaticaly gets my guard up a bit. That's not exactly the most cleanly run city in this country. It's right there with Obama's Chicago and Boss Daley when it comes to corruption. By law, the census is supposed to be non-partisan, so a close eye needs to be kept here.
There is no long form for the census this year.
The 2010 Census will be a short-form only census and will count all residents living in the United States as well as ask for name, sex, age, date of birth, race, ethnicity, relationship and housing tenure – taking just minutes to complete.
However, the American Community Survey replaced it, and is required by law. Heads up there. This replaces the long form and is what likely strongly concerns Bachmann.
Now as far as I'm concerned, name and number of people in the household, is the only thing that SHOULD be asked. The rest is none of their damn business. I'd like to see government stop classifying people by race. If we ever are going to get past race in this country, it starts with that. Start treating people as individuals. The one that pisses me off through is income (ACS Survey). That one I will do whatever legally possible to give an answer that does not lie or give them what they want to see.
The purpose of these surveys and census information outside of counting people and redistricting information is for government programs. This is used for determining government funding - most of which shouldn't be the job of the federal government to begin with outside of federal infastructure (Interstate Freeways, US Highways). The more that hampers this, the better. Most of this stuff should be a state and local issue, not the domain of Washington DC.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Census taken over by Chicago-style goons like Obama and Rahm Emmanuel
One of the looming figures of 2010 is on the horizon, the US Census, particulary relating to the counting of the people. The census figures lead to redistricting, and who gains and loses seats. The right way - and really only logical way - to go is with an actual head count of individuals. What the democrats want is to go with "sampling" - a guess, so they can add more individuals in their pet areas so they can have more districts. The census is also used as the data for government spending.
Obama nominated Judd Gregg as Commerce Secretary, but that puts him in control of the census, right? Wrong! Nope, the control isn't with the commerce department, but in the white house itself.
Now I think politics needs to stay out of the census itself with a straight up headcount, but with Rahm running it, that won't happen. Chicago style corruption is now going nationwide.
Obama nominated Judd Gregg as Commerce Secretary, but that puts him in control of the census, right? Wrong! Nope, the control isn't with the commerce department, but in the white house itself.
The director of the Census Bureau will report directly to the White House and not the secretary of Commerce, according to a senior White House official.
The decision came after black and Hispanic leaders raised questions about Commerce Secretary nominee Judd Gregg ’s commitment to funding the census.
Gregg, New Hampshire’s senior senator, voted in committee and on the floor for a 1995 Republican budget that envisioned the elimination of the Commerce Department. Of even more concern to black and Hispanic leaders, Gregg battled President Clinton over a request for “emergency” funding for the 2000 census.
Now I think politics needs to stay out of the census itself with a straight up headcount, but with Rahm running it, that won't happen. Chicago style corruption is now going nationwide.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Cool cities? People are fleeing them
The Ann Arbor News has an interesting story.The exodus from the cities are continuing with the latest census estimates. For all the talk about cool cities, and new urbanism, and Richard Florida's claptrap, the reality is that more and more people do not want to live in cities.
Even Ann Arbor, the posterchild for urbanism in this state, lost more population, albeit narrowly.
The excel file from the Detroit News. shows all of the numbers.
Livingston overall gained 1.7% over last year. It's a small gain compared to previous years, but it is still the fastest growing county in the state.
Wayne County took a big loss, and not just in Detroit. Just about everywhere in Wayne County dropped outside of Canton and the Southernmost part of Downriver. Even Plymouth dropped.
Oakland County was stagnant. Generally, there was growth west of I-275 and North of 59. The "trendy" areas there all dropped in population. Royal Oak, Ferndale, etc. Macomb County narrowly gained, mostly in the Northern part of the county.
As for the central cities:
Grand Rapids narrowly lost population. It's in better shape than most cities.
Saginaw, Flint, and Bay City all took nosedives.
Detroit and Warren lost big.
Lansing as well. East Lansing was more narrow.
Kalamazoo, Muskegon Battle Creek, Albion, and Jackson had narrower losses. West Michigan is in better shape than East Michigan.
Adrian stayed about the same.
Marquette and Sault Ste Marie stayed about the same, and is doing better than much of the UP. Mackinac County (St Ignace) has had a large exodus.
Instead of cool cities, I think we need to have a cool economy here. One with jobs, low taxes, and high freedom. Leave the fluff and superficial stuff to private citizens.
Even Ann Arbor, the posterchild for urbanism in this state, lost more population, albeit narrowly.
WASHINGTON - Like most major Michigan cities, Ann Arbor lost population during the first half of this decade to the townships and villages that make up its suburbs.
A U.S. Census Bureau report released today shows that two-thirds of Michigan's cities and villages lost population between 2000 and 2006. While no region was spared, the biggest declines came in the state's major cities - Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids and Lansing.
The beneficiaries of this population shift were the smaller cities, villages and townships that make up metropolitan areas. The shifting population pattern occurred in all of the state's major cities. Villages or smaller cities on the outskirts of Ann Arbor, Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Lansing all grew, while the central cities shrank between 2000 and 2006.
The excel file from the Detroit News. shows all of the numbers.
Livingston overall gained 1.7% over last year. It's a small gain compared to previous years, but it is still the fastest growing county in the state.
Wayne County took a big loss, and not just in Detroit. Just about everywhere in Wayne County dropped outside of Canton and the Southernmost part of Downriver. Even Plymouth dropped.
Oakland County was stagnant. Generally, there was growth west of I-275 and North of 59. The "trendy" areas there all dropped in population. Royal Oak, Ferndale, etc. Macomb County narrowly gained, mostly in the Northern part of the county.
As for the central cities:
Grand Rapids narrowly lost population. It's in better shape than most cities.
Saginaw, Flint, and Bay City all took nosedives.
Detroit and Warren lost big.
Lansing as well. East Lansing was more narrow.
Kalamazoo, Muskegon Battle Creek, Albion, and Jackson had narrower losses. West Michigan is in better shape than East Michigan.
Adrian stayed about the same.
Marquette and Sault Ste Marie stayed about the same, and is doing better than much of the UP. Mackinac County (St Ignace) has had a large exodus.
Instead of cool cities, I think we need to have a cool economy here. One with jobs, low taxes, and high freedom. Leave the fluff and superficial stuff to private citizens.
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