Longshot special elections on the horizon

These are seats that are the democrats to lose, but are possible for the GOP to win, especially in special elections. The thing about special elections is that the rules are thrown out. Scott Brown took a senate seat in Massachusetts which went 62% for Obama and Kerry. From UPI

Projections for special elections next month in Hawaii and Pennsylvania have caused alarm among Democratic officials, who said they feared dual defeats would play into the thinking that the Democratic Party is consigned to huge losses in the fall, Politico reported Tuesday.
In Hawaii, party leaders said they were worried the two top Democrats will split the vote, allowing a Republican to take a seat with a plurality in the state's all-party special election.
A Republican snatching a Democratic seat would lead to "all the talking heads on Fox News saying, 'A blow to President Obama in his home state,' and you'll have (House Minority Leader) John Boehner saying, 'The people have spoken again,'" said Kam Kuwata, a Democratic strategist.
Also worrisome for Democratic strategists is the special election in the Pennsylvania district represented for 36 years by John Murtha until his death in February. The Democratic candidate, a former Murtha district director, is vulnerable to the "political insider" label at a time when that moniker is a detriment.
"It's a tough district. The fact that Murtha got elected so many times covered up the fact that this is a tough seat," said a Democratic strategist familiar with the Pennsylvania race.

The two districts have been democrat for years and years and years. Both of them went for Clinton twice, Gore, and Kerry as well, although McCain took Murtha's district very narrowly. That is the only John Kerry district in the nation which voted for McCain.

The first district is Hawaii District 1 (HI-01). It went 70% for Obama (birth state until proven to me otherwise - burden of proof is on the birthers) and 53% for Kerry. Neil Abercrombie has held this district for most of the last 24 years (Pai Saiki defeated  a dem who defeated Abercrombie in a primary and held the seat for four years from 86-90) and has resigned in order to run for Governor. The special election is like a primary election of winner take all, no runoff, except it is all parties. Ed Case, a former congresscritter in the 2nd district, is running in the first (both cover parts of Honolulu). So is Colleen Hanabusa, a labor lawyer. Both of them are democrats. One republican is running, Charles Djou, a Honolulu city councilman.. In 94 and 96, this district was close.We could steal one here. May 22, 2010 is this election.

The other district is John Murtha, the defamer who doesn't know what innocent till proven guilty means. He's dead, and this seat is open.

John Murtha always had relatively easy runs for the same reason Robert Byrd always wins in West Virginia. He's a pork king. Republicans had control of redistricting (and the plan backfired, like the dems redistricting in Georgia) in Pennsylvania. They went after a few democrats, but they protected Murtha. Johnstown is Democrat. The rest of the area there is Republican, so they connected the area with democrat Pittsburgh suburbs and other steel areas on the West Virginia border that also lean democrat. The result is a swing district, but one historically democrat, and would vote for Murtha who is pro-gun and pro-life. The GOP went after Murtha in 06 and 08, and his margins dropped, but still was 61% (don't nationalize small town districts) and 58% (Murtha's mouth cost some votes, but he still brought home the bacon). 

May 18th, 2010 is this special election. The dems nominated an insider, Mark Critz, who was an aide to Murtha and will probably be a similar congressman. The GOP nominated Tim Burns, a businessman who would be welcome change to the Pork Kings in Congress.

Throw out the rules in special elections. Anything can happen, and it's time to build on the momentum of Brown's win.

Electoral College Math - Part 5 - Pacific

The Pacific Coast is democrat leaning overall outside of Alaska.

Pacific Coast:

Solid McCain - 3
Solid Obama - 59
Lean Obama - 18

Solid McCain:
Alaska (3 votes) - Sarah Palin on the ticket solidifies this state. Alaska has long been Republican, but a couple of scandals in the leadership there have caused a lot of problems in the party. Palin however is immune from that and has an 70% approval rating. Bush won 61-36% in 2004 and 59-28-10% in 2000. Sarah Palin beat former governor Tony Knowles 48-41% in 06 and in the primary beat incumbent Frank Murkowski and another candidate John Binkley. 51-30-19%. The latest poll (Ivan Moore) Aug/September has McCain up 19.

Solid Obama:
Hawaii (4 votes) - Hawaii has long been dominated by the democrats. While it has a Republican governor, that is an aberration compared to its federal races. It only voted for Reagan recently in the 84 landslide. Incumbents do better here as well, as do veterans. On the other hand Barack Obama was born and raised there. Gore won 56-37% in 2000 and Kerry won 54-45%. Ironic part is that Bush ran best among Asians in Hawaii and not whites. That's different than the historical numbers there. The only poll was from February and had Obama up by 30 points. I don't expect that high of a route here, but a 20 pt win by Obama due to his heritage here would not surprise me in the least.

California (55 votes) - Two reason why this once swing state (when not a homer) has gone so democrat. Immigration, defense indusrty and migration. The immigrants moved this state to the left, and many of those who left were Orange County Republicans who used to work for the defense industry. Today it is a regional state with the Coastal area going left and the "inland empire" almost as Republican as Wyoming. Del Norte County, San Diego County, Orange County, San Luis Obispo County, and Ventura County also usually go Republican. It's not enough. Gore won 53-42%, and Kerry won 54-44%. The problem is mostly concentrated in two areas, One Los Angeles County which has 3 million votes and is 63% Democrat. The even bigger problem is the San Francisco Bay area. Every county that touches the bay went for Kerry. Kerry's worst bay county was Solano, which was a 57% win. His best was 83%, San Francisco. There's about 2 million voters there near the Bay. That's 5 million votes from two major areas, out of 13 million total. Take about 70% of the Bay area going democrat, plus 2 million Kerry votes from LA. That's about a 1.6 million vote defecit right off the bat. That's not counting the other strong democrat areas like Santa Cruz, Salinas, Santa Barbara, Imperial County, and Sacramento. Overall, Kerry won by 1.2 million votes. The only shot to win is by dominating the inland empire, holding the base, and picking off enough crossvotes from LA and some of the less insane Bay Area counties (San Jose). That's easier said then done. There may be 5.5 million Bush voters in California, but 6.7 million democrats. The latest polls were two August polls. Rasmussen had Obama by 13. PPIC had Obama by 9.

Leans Obama:

Washington (11 votes) - Washington State is a regional state where East Washington is conservative and very republican, and the Seattle area outvotes it enough to win. I almost posted this as solid Obama, but the latest poll (Survey USA) had this at Obama by 4. Past election results though of Kerry winning 53-46% and Gore winning 50-45% show a distinct democrat leaning here. All of the Bush counties are rural outside of Spokane, Yakima, and Clark (Vancover). That's not enough to win. King County alone has 800,000 voters (out of 2.8 million) and went 64% for Kerry. Without King County, Bush would have won by 70,000 votes. McCain can win it if he sweeps all of the suburban counties and holds the Bush numbers. Pierce County (best known by the TV show COPS), Snohomish County, and eastern King County away from Seattle are the must win areas to have a shot at carrying this state. Not impossible, but it would have to be a landslide win overall to take Washington St. I don't expect any landslides. Obama may have to work here, but it's his to lose.

Oregon (7 votes) - Similar to Washington State, but closer. There's a similar regional pattern, but Kerry won 51-47% and Gore won 47-47-5% in 2000 for a 7000 win. The difference in Oregon to Washington is that the coast away from the big city is more conservative. Suprisingly, even the Salem area (state capitol) went for Bush. The coast in Washington away from Seattle lean democrat outside of Vancover. In Oregon, only Portland metro and Eugene metro went for Kerry. The interior is 75% Bush and almost makes up for Multnomah County's 71% for Kerry vote. Unfortunately, that is about 1/5 of the vote. The key counties outside of the interior are Clackamas and Washington. Clackamas is 50/50 and Washington went 52-46. If McCain runs ahead of pace there, he has a shot. The Oregon polls favor Obama. The two August polls vary. Survey USA has Obama by 3, Rasmussen had him by 10. I think Obama is a very bad matchup for McCain in Oregon, so even with the close elections, I really can't move this into a tossup category unless a couple of Oregon polls have a McCain lead.

Overall, I'd like to see McCain compete hard in the Pacific Northwest to make Obama spend money and time there, but I'm not expecting a win here. If McCain does win Oregon, the election will already have been won with the easier pickups going his way.