Election Results - May Primaries in Pennsylvania, Oregon, Kentucky, Arkansas

The results are coming in from the primary races, along with the special election for the John Murtha district.

First off, in Kentucky, the projected winner is Rand Paul over the establishment choice, Trey Grayson. Rand Paul won easily with about 58% of the vote. It'll be interesting to see the fallout there.

Unfortunately, it looks like Critz, Murtha's aide, will take the special election unless some very strong GOP precincts are left. With 69% in, Critz is up by 8%. It's a democrat district, gerrymandered for Murtha. 53-44. They haven't called it yet, but that's a lot of ground to make up late. There will be a rematch in November, regardless of the situation.

The good news is that Ex-RINO and party switcher Arlen Specter is GONE. I hope Charlie Crist is watching that.....Good riddance. The dems didn't accept him. The Republicans didn't either.

It's early in Arkansas, but the best news possible may happen. Blanche Lincoln caught in a runoff with Bill Halter. In Arkansas, candidates who don't get 50% in the primary, have to have a runoff election to determine the winner of the primary.

Oregon has a primary, but nothing has been reported yet there.

------------------------
Update 12:38AM

Penn:
Senate - Pat Toomey will face Joe Sestak.
House - Critz held on to win John Murtha's seat. Tim Burns will have a rematch in November.

Oregon Governor - Former NBA player Chris Dudley will face John Kitzhaber. Kitzhaber is a former two term governor who wants his old job back.

Kentucky Senate - Rand Paul, a doctor and son of Ron Paul, will face Jack Conway.

Arkansas Senate - Blanche Lincoln, incumbent, will have a runoff against more left wing challenger Bill Halter. Boozman will be the GOP nominee.

Overall, it's a big day. One incumbent lost, and a second may lose. That means four federal incumbents may be toast this year alone in primaries or conventions. Bob Bennett lost in Utah. Alan Mollohan lost in West Virginia. Arlen Specter lost today. Blanche Lincoln may lost in the runoff.

I think we may have a very interesting August primary season in Michigan.

Longshot special elections on the horizon

These are seats that are the democrats to lose, but are possible for the GOP to win, especially in special elections. The thing about special elections is that the rules are thrown out. Scott Brown took a senate seat in Massachusetts which went 62% for Obama and Kerry. From UPI

Projections for special elections next month in Hawaii and Pennsylvania have caused alarm among Democratic officials, who said they feared dual defeats would play into the thinking that the Democratic Party is consigned to huge losses in the fall, Politico reported Tuesday.
In Hawaii, party leaders said they were worried the two top Democrats will split the vote, allowing a Republican to take a seat with a plurality in the state's all-party special election.
A Republican snatching a Democratic seat would lead to "all the talking heads on Fox News saying, 'A blow to President Obama in his home state,' and you'll have (House Minority Leader) John Boehner saying, 'The people have spoken again,'" said Kam Kuwata, a Democratic strategist.
Also worrisome for Democratic strategists is the special election in the Pennsylvania district represented for 36 years by John Murtha until his death in February. The Democratic candidate, a former Murtha district director, is vulnerable to the "political insider" label at a time when that moniker is a detriment.
"It's a tough district. The fact that Murtha got elected so many times covered up the fact that this is a tough seat," said a Democratic strategist familiar with the Pennsylvania race.

The two districts have been democrat for years and years and years. Both of them went for Clinton twice, Gore, and Kerry as well, although McCain took Murtha's district very narrowly. That is the only John Kerry district in the nation which voted for McCain.

The first district is Hawaii District 1 (HI-01). It went 70% for Obama (birth state until proven to me otherwise - burden of proof is on the birthers) and 53% for Kerry. Neil Abercrombie has held this district for most of the last 24 years (Pai Saiki defeated  a dem who defeated Abercrombie in a primary and held the seat for four years from 86-90) and has resigned in order to run for Governor. The special election is like a primary election of winner take all, no runoff, except it is all parties. Ed Case, a former congresscritter in the 2nd district, is running in the first (both cover parts of Honolulu). So is Colleen Hanabusa, a labor lawyer. Both of them are democrats. One republican is running, Charles Djou, a Honolulu city councilman.. In 94 and 96, this district was close.We could steal one here. May 22, 2010 is this election.

The other district is John Murtha, the defamer who doesn't know what innocent till proven guilty means. He's dead, and this seat is open.

John Murtha always had relatively easy runs for the same reason Robert Byrd always wins in West Virginia. He's a pork king. Republicans had control of redistricting (and the plan backfired, like the dems redistricting in Georgia) in Pennsylvania. They went after a few democrats, but they protected Murtha. Johnstown is Democrat. The rest of the area there is Republican, so they connected the area with democrat Pittsburgh suburbs and other steel areas on the West Virginia border that also lean democrat. The result is a swing district, but one historically democrat, and would vote for Murtha who is pro-gun and pro-life. The GOP went after Murtha in 06 and 08, and his margins dropped, but still was 61% (don't nationalize small town districts) and 58% (Murtha's mouth cost some votes, but he still brought home the bacon). 

May 18th, 2010 is this special election. The dems nominated an insider, Mark Critz, who was an aide to Murtha and will probably be a similar congressman. The GOP nominated Tim Burns, a businessman who would be welcome change to the Pork Kings in Congress.

Throw out the rules in special elections. Anything can happen, and it's time to build on the momentum of Brown's win.

Republican comeback in the Northeast?

While the big story for 2009 was the takeover of the governor's mansion in New Jersey and Virginia, there's more good news for the GOP, and the disasters of 06 and 08.

2006 and 2008 was a disaster for the GOP. Republicans were wiped out in much of the country during those two election cycles with unpopular incumbents and struggling state and local parties. It was very tough in the Northeast and Midwest, for different reasons. In Ohio, you had Taft. Here in Michigan, it was the economy and "outsourcing" tag. Indiana had their own issues. Illinois is Obama's home state. Minnesota and Wisconsin have long held democrat leanings.

Michigan's State Senate District 19 is a bellwether district covering Calhoun and most of Jackson Counties. It voted for Granholm twice, Bush twice, and Obama.

I found this interesting National Review article by Jim Geraghty.. They looked at some of the recent results in suburban northeastern counties. Keep in mind that most of those are much more liberal than the two big suburban counties here (Oakland and Macomb).

Consider these six numbers: 62, 53, 54, 60, 60, 53.

Those numbers are the percentage of voters who supported Barack Obama last year in Westchester and Nassau Counties in New York, Bergen and Middlesex Counties in New Jersey, Fairfax County in Virginia, and Bucks County in Pennsylvania, respectively.

Now, here are the percentages of the vote that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic candidates got in each of those counties this year: 43, 48, 48, 44, 49, 45.

.........

But as the stack of 2009’s defeated Democrats piles up to include Westchester county executive Andrew Spano, Nassau county executive Tom Suozzi (probably), and state supreme court nominee Jack Panella in Pennsylvania, with a roughly proportional slide in the Democrats’ share of the vote, perhaps that party’s problems go well beyond the flaws of any individual candidate. Perhaps the suburbs of the northeast and Mid-Atlantic states are looking at the party and concluding, to adapt a recurring phrase from Obama’s days as a candidate, “This is not the Democratic party I knew.”

Westchester County? Ouch. Nassau? Ouch. Bucks County? Ouch. Those have recently been almost base counties at the top of the ticket. Westchester and Nassau are base counties across the board. Bucks will swing at times, but still has dem leanings.

After 2008, the declarations were blunt: Obama won 50 percent of suburban voters, the most by a Democrat since exit polling began in 1972. Democrats benefited from increased turnout among young voters and African-Americans, but the suburban shift from Kerry’s modest 47 percent was the real sign that they were winning over skeptics.

Kerry ran better than Gore in SOME suburbs (Fairfax, Bucks), and the same or worse than Gore in others (NYC suburbs, Oakland, Macomb). Obama ran better than both Gore and Kerry there. The article then mentions a poll with some of the shift since 08 election, as the memory of Bush goes back into the distance.

Page two of the article though really says something. Keep in mind, this is the Northeast, and not the Midwest here.

What is crystallizing in the northeast is voters’ incredulity that government at every level should be demanding more while delivering less at a time when people feel strapped and anxious about their futures. Almost all voters feel an ever-sharper pinch from the economic downturn, but they look at government, from their county seat to Washington, and find little or no sign of frugality or careful budgeting. There was also a time when conventional wisdom dictated that a pro-life Republican could not win a race in the northeast. Here are three candidates who suggest a lot of what we know about politics in the northeast is wrong:

The northeast is the most pro-government area of the country outside of California. It is the home of the rich white regressive (so called progressive) democrat. They have a lot of influence up that way. However, the swing voters are not buying what is sold anymore. I think there's several reasons for that, most importantly is Bush gone and Obama being just another politician not living to the hype.

Nassau County:

Republican challenger Ed Mangano is, as of this writing, not quite the next Nassau county executive. But he leads Tom Suozzi by 353 votes after a weekend of absentee and affidavit ballot counting, a process of counting that is expected to extend past the Thanksgiving holiday.

A county-executive race doesn’t dominate the headlines the way a presidential race does, but Suozzi entered this race the heavy favorite. In a county with more registered Democrats than Republicans, in a state where the GOP is supposed to be dead, an incumbent with a huge fundraising advantage ought to be able to win in his sleep. Perhaps that is a good way of describing what Suozzi attempted; he finished the race with perhaps $2 million in his campaign war chest unspent.

Nassau County is one of the two Long Island NY Counties. It's the more democrat of the two (Suffolk is the other). It went 53.84% for Obama, 52.25% for Kerry, 57.93% for Gore, 55.7% for Clinton 96, 46.4% for Clinton in 92.

Senate:
Hillary Clinton 06 - 60.47%
Charles Schumer 04 - 66.45%
Hillary Clinton 00 - 45.15% (Rick Lazio was from Long Island and won there, and Hillary carpetbagged)
Charles Schumer 98 - 46.5% (Al D'Amato was from Long Island and won there)

Governor:
Elliot Spitzer 06 - 64.88%

Nassau can sometimes be competitive though. The GOP has a congressional district still based in Nassau (Peter King), although the democrats have two districts there, one of which is winnable in a very good year. Part of the problems on Long Island were local scandals and a sweep of the county offices. If that's straightened out, there is a good chance for a comeback, at least of competitiveness.

Westchester County is much more democrat, and this was the real big upset. Westchester County is just north of the Bronx. Yonkers, White Plains, and Chappaqua, where the Clintons now live.

Rob Astorino is supposed to be the kind of Republican candidate who can’t win in the northeast anymore. He ran a fairly explicit campaign emphasizing fiscal conservatism, depicting the county’s management as wasteful, bureaucratic, inefficient, corrupt, and out of touch. He hammered his rival, telling voters that the incumbent county executive, Andy Spano, “raised your taxes almost 60 percent in the last seven years alone. Mr. Spano has ballooned the annual budget by $1 billion in the past 12 years, from $800 million to $1.8 billion per year. He spends more than 87 nations do, and you pay for it.” Intriguingly, while the pro-life Astorino didn’t put his faith or social views front and center, his conservative bona fides are impeccable: He is a radio host and program director for the Catholic Channel on Sirius Satellite Radio and hosts a Thursday-night program with Cardinal Edward Egan, the former archbishop of New York.

Astorino shellacked the three-term Democrat, 57 percent to 43 percent, in a county where Democrats have nearly a 2-to-1 advantage in voter registration. This is a county where Al Gore and John Kerry carried 58 percent of the vote, the county Bill and Hillary Clinton call home. It may be a bit self-serving, but Spano contends that his defeat reflects voters’ anger at Democrats at the state and national level. “It has nothing to do with me, as far as I’m concerned,” he told the New York Times. “They’re mad at Albany, and Washington.”

Westchester went 63.36% for Obama, 58.1% for Kerry, 58.63% for Gore, 56.9% for Clinton 96, and 48.6% for Clinton in 92.

Senate:
Hillary Clinton 06 - 66.50%
Charles Schumer 04 - 70.48%
Hillary Clinton 00 - 51.09%
Charles Schumer 98 - 54.5%

Governor:
Elliot Spitzer 06 - 69%

The two districts that cover Westchester are both democrat (one based, one partial), although one of them had been republican until 2006 due to other counties in that district. The other has been democrat since 1988. Westchester is about as Democrat as Ingham County (Lansing) here at home. It's not a county that republicans are supposed to win.

Pennsylvania is a more competitive state than New York, but has gone democrat recently, largely in part to the Philly Suburbs swinging left and having more population than the Pittsburgh suburbs which have swung independent. It was close in 04, but not in 02, 06 and 08 with Ed Rendell and the Philly area machine. Some good news came in a Supreme Court race. Supreme Court is a partisan race in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania’s supreme court race pitting Republican Joan Orie Melvin against Democrat Jack Panella didn’t attract much national attention; while there was plenty of television advertising, it had two relatively unknown candidates, and the dominant issues of Washington were largely non-factors. The Democrat began with significant advantages: The state currently has 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, and Panella’s campaign raised $2.35 million, outdoing Melvin’s by almost 3-1, according to statistics compiled by an advocacy group, Pennsylvanians for Modern Courts.

Instead, Melvin won 53 percent to 46 percent, and won every suburban county around Philadelphia except Montgomery, which the Democrat carried by 1.4 percent. While the Democrat Panella garnered 70 percent of the vote in Philadelphia, traditionally the engine that drives Democratic wins in statewide races, the city had a miserable turnout of 12 percent.

That says something. Right now, the GOP only has one and 3/4 districts there. Jim Gerlach has a 50/50 district based in Chester County (and has part of Berks, Leigh, and Montgomery County where he loses). Charlie Dent has a Leigh valley based district that has a small part of Montgomery County. Joe Pitts has a heavy GOP leaning district with Lancaster County and part of Berks and Chester Counties.

2008:
Montgomery County - 60% Obama
Delaware County - 60% Obama
Bucks County - 53.74% Obama
Chester County - 54% Obama
Berks County - 53.76% Obama
Lancaster County - 55.21% McCain

2004:
Montgomery County - 55.57% Kerry
Delaware County - 57.15% Kerry
Bucks County - 51.10% Kerry
Chester County - 52% Bush
Berks County - 52.97% Bush
Lancaster County - 65.80% Bush

2000:
Montgomery County - 53.54% Gore
Delaware County - 54.36% Gore
Bucks County - 50.46% Gore
Chester County - 53.33% Bush
Berks County - 52.68% Bush
Lancaster County - 66.09% Bush

For President, the GOP last won Bucks in 1992, and last won Montgomery and Delaware Counties in 1988. The irony is that Dukakis almost won Pennsylvania in 1988 due to winning big in Western PA. Most of those counties for Dukakis went for McCain and GW Bush.

Geraghty makes his point here.

While these six counties have their differences, they are all classically suburban and among the wealthiest in the nation. There are 3,141 counties in the United States; ranked by median household income, Nassau ranks 12th highest nationally, Westchester ranks 47th, Bucks ranks 76th. Of the other counties mentioned earlier, Fairfax County ranks 2nd; Bergen ranks 28th, Middlesex ranks 68th. A wholesale rejection in the varied races of 2009 suggests that voters in these places are changing what they think when they hear the word “Democrat.” A year ago, it represented change from a wearying and disappointing Bush presidency; today it represents runaway spending, an arrogant dismissal of cries of over-taxation, and a fundamental disconnect from the daily life and problems of constituents.

After the 2008 election, Robert Lang, a demographer at Virginia Tech’s Metropolitan Institute in Alexandria, scoffed to the Washington Post, “The Obama campaign clearly understands where the battleground of this election was. Do [the Republicans] have the basic math skills to sit with an Excel spreadsheet and figure out where the growth is, or are they out of their minds?”

The good thing about 09 is that the talking heads who say the GOP is just a southern party can sit down and shut up. I said a few years back about the special elections where the GOP lost three in a row (either 05 or 07). One doesn't mean much. Two has my guard up. Losing three in row is a real problem.

Here's the opposite. Winning Virginia is important, especially Fairfax County which is a "non-Southern" part of Virginia at least in culture. That stopped the bleeding. Winning in New Jersey shows some offense. Winning the Philly burbs and some of the New York suburbs now is sending a message. Add the 19th district here at home for another swing district with a much different cultural area. Several distinct areas went GOP.

That doesn't mean that we're back. We're not. What it does mean is that the bleeding has largely been stopped for now. There's still a lot of work to be done with 2010. Most important in 2010 is the gubenatorial races and state legislatures. Why? They draw the boundaries in most states. While I don't care for the redistricting decision making process, it is what it is, and knowing the rules of the game is most important. Needless to say, for that reason alone, three republicans will automatically get my vote. The nominees for governor, state senate, and state rep.

The 09 elections were hopefully the beginning or a nationwide comeback against the radical leftist policies of Mr. Obama, Rahm Emmanuel, Mr. Reid, and Ms Pelosi.

Electoral College Math - Part 2, Mid Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic states are also strongly democrat in its leanings, similar to New England.

Solid Obama - 47 Votes
Lean Obama - 15 Votes
Toss up - 21 Votes

Solid Obama States:
New York (31 votes) - Kerry won 58-40% and Gore won 60-35%. The latest polls are three August polls. Rasmussen has Obama by 19% Quinnipac has Obama by 21. Siena has Obama by 8%. Bush closed the gap a bit in 04, but it still wasn't close. There's too many demographic changes. Long Island and Westchester are now almost solidly blue, and New York City is more blue. Reagan won Queens. Bush made inroads there and got Staten Island to flip, but there aren't enough blue collar Irish and Italians to make up for the liberal out of town transplants, NYU, old money, and minority vote. Manhattan went more democrat in 04 than in 2000. Upstate is almost 52-48% and will have to be closer to 65-35% GOP for McCain to win. I suspect there will be numbers similar to 2004 here, maybe slightly better.

Delaware (3 votes) - With Biden on the ticket, this state should be solid for Obama and not just a Democrat leaner. Kerry won 53-46% and Gore 55-42% which is enough for an outside look, but not with a home state candidate. The only poll was a February poll where Obama was up by 9% Biden's worst election was in 2002...58%. I'm writing Delaware off.

Maryland (10 votes) - One of the most consistant states for the democrats. This is due to government workers in DC, along with a close to 30% black popuation. Kerry won 56-43% and Gore won 57-40%. The latest poll from Rasmussen shows a 10 point Obama lead. It's underwhelming for Maryland, but I don't see it flipping and expect it to increase on Election Day because there's too much of a base. Even if McCain takes Baltimore, Charles, and Howard counties, there's a million votes out of Prince George County (DC East and minority), Montgomery County(DC North and culturally leftist), and Baltimore City and it averages out to about 75% democrat. There is a 520,000 vote gap that needs to be made up from those counties alone, more than the City of Detroit's gap here in Michigan. This is in a state with 2.3 million voters total. That's just too much to make up unless there is a significant infighting on the left and a great GOP candidate team like Bob Ehrich and Michael Steele in 2002.

Washington DC (3 votes) - I do not believe the Republicans ever won DC. They won't this year either. There are no polls for DC, but when Kerry and Gore rack up 89-9% and 85-5% wins, there doesn't need to be a poll. Not even George Washington could win here if he was a Republican.

Lean Obama State:
New Jersey (15 votes) - I think the Republicans are going to try to make a run here. They normally do late as polls tighten, but the dems usually win it on election day by a greater than expected number. It went 53-46% for Kerry and 56-40% for Bush. Bush made many inroads in 2004, can McCain keep them in 08 after the 06 close calls there (District 7). The latest polls in August Obama up by 10. I suspect similar numbers to 2004 here in the end, which are typical for the state. If Jersey flips, it'll be over early. The only real shot is if McCain can break through South Jersey, while improving on Bush's improvements in North Jersey. It's possible, but I won't put money on it. Too much Camden, Orange, Newark, Jersey City, Atlantic City, and culturally liberal suburbs.

Tossup:
Pennsylvania - In my opinion, this is one of the most important battleground states this election, along with Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Michigan. It was close the last two elections. Kerry won 51-48% and Gore 51-46%. Recent polls there have a 3-7 point Obama lead, pre-convention. It was a 6-10 point lead for awhile. In the end, I expect this to be a 1-5% race...either way. The Primary report on the democrat's side was there. It showed Obama's weakness in blue collar areas. The primary votes were not even close. From past elections, Kerry won 13 counties in 2004. Gore won 18 in 2000. Bush won all the rest.

Either James Carville or Paul Begala jokingly referred to Pennsylvania as Pittsburgh and Philly, with Alabama in between. That is an exaggeration, but the "T" section is Republican leaning mostly with the most democrat portions of the state in the Southwest and Southeast areas. I think there these areas in no particular order will tell the biggest story of the election.

1. Philly. The democrats got a 415,000 vote spread from Philly, and won the state by 140,000 votes. Obama will win Philly. That is not in dispute. What is in dispute is how much. He won it 65-35% in the primary. Will Philly go 70-30% in 08 or go 81-19% like it did in 2004. I would like to see the returns out of South Philly (Rocky) and the swing area in Northeast Philly.

2. Philly suburbs. The democrats have been making big gains here since the Clinton years. In the primary, Obama won the 57% Kerry Delaware and 52% Bush Chester County. He narrowly lost 56% Kerry Montgomery County and lost badly in 51% Kerry Bucks County. Bucks County and Chester County are IMO the major areas to watch.

3. Conservative Base Counties. Lancaster and York Counties, along with the other rural areas. Lancaster and York Counties are 65% and 63% Bush areas in 2004 that combine for almost 500,000 votes. Will they go for McCain/Palin by that margin? Obama won Lancaster in the primary. Dauphin County went 58-42 Obama in the primary. Bush got 54% in Dauphin in 04. Cumberland next door was close in the primary, but 64% for Bush in 04. One Bush county from 2000 and 2004 is Centre County. It was Obama's 2nd best county in the primary besides Philly. 60% for Obama. It was 51% for Bush in 2004. I think that county flips.

4. Western PA. Pittsburgh, it's suburban counties, Johnstown, and Erie up North. Obama was trounced here in the primary. He'll have to make up ground here if he is going to win PA. Most of those counties, outside of Alleghany, are winnable for either party, although they are historically democrat leaning. These areas like John Murtha democrats. I don't mean by foreign policy, but domestic policy. Murtha always wins. Why? Because he brings home the bacon, votes against gun control in most cases, and has a pro-life reputation. I expect Alleghany County (Pittsburgh) to go for Obama, but the question here is how much. It is a 57% county, but can Obama match it? The other counties are closer and range from 53% Democrat (2004) to 57% Republican (2004). In order: Erie, Fayette, Beaver, Washington (Dem), Cambria (usually dem,but went for Bush), Greene, Lawrence, Mercer, Westmoreland, and Crawford. The rest are major base counties for Bush so I didn't include them. These 10 counties are ones to watch.

5. Eastern PA - Scranton, Wilkes Barre, Bethlehem, Allentown, Reading. This area is quite similar to Western PA in its blue collar views. This is also a steel area. This area leans "Bob Casey Democrat" (pro-gun, pro-life, and pro-union) and is competitive in all elections. In 2004, Berks, Schuylkill (almost a base GOP county, but historical democrat), Carbon, and Monroe Counties went for Bush. Leigh and Northampton Counties are true Bellwether counties. Luzerne and Lackawanna are the base democrat counties there. Wilkes-Barre and Scranton. Luzerne was only 51% Democrat in 04. Lackawanna was 56% Democrat (59% for Gore). It was a 75% Hillary Clinton county over Obama however. I think McCain could sweep all of these counties, at least by a small margain, outside of Lackawanna County which is too yellow dog, even moreso than Pittsburgh's county. If I'm wrong on Lackawanna and it goes for McCain, McCain likely wins Pennsylvania barring a miracle in Philly.

Overall, this is once again going to be a tough hard fought race in Pennsylvania. It's a little bit Northeast/Mid Atlantic in attitudes in parts, part rust belt Midwest, and part Appalachian. It's a little bit of American, so this should not be a surprise.

Pennsylvania Primary - Hillary stays alive, Indiana preview

Pennsylvania voted on their primary. Hillary "Raaaaaaoooooow" Clinton won 55-45% against Barack "Cling to guns and Religion" Obama. This could be a brokered convention this year. Clinton can't catch Obama without the superdelegates and Obama can't win without superdelgates. The best thing that can happen is for the two of them to continue to beat the hell out of them so bad that the base of the candidate stays home on election day.

CNN's website did a great job breaking this down. The interesting things I noticed.

1. Obama was destroyed in blue collar areas. He was shut out completely in Western Pennsylvania, even Allegheny County which has Pittsburgh. That went 54-46% Hillary. Erie County went 63-37% for Clinton. He was shut out in the blue collar Northeastern sections. Clinton's best area in the state was Scranton and Wilkes-Barre which went 75% for Hillary. Johnstown in West Central PA was 72% for Hillary. Those three areas are democrat leaning, but social conservative. Bay City is probably the closest description in this state of a similar area. Leigh Valley in the East was another key swing area and usually a bellwether for the general. Those were 60-40%.

2. Obama won 7 counties. Only 4 other counties were under 55% for Hillary. Obama's 11 best counties were.
1. Philadelphia - 65%-35% Obama - Not a surprise. Large black population, several colleges (Penn, Temple).
2. Centre County - 60%-40% - Penn State University.
3. Dauphin County - 58%-42% - Harrisburg. State Capitol with government workers, large black population.
4. Delaware County - 55%-45% - Suburban Philly. He didn't do as well here as I thought he would. Chester is in this district.
5. Chester County - 55%-45% - The only Republican County in the Philly Suburbs. The results here are somewhat surprising as he lost Montgomery and Bucks Counties. Coatesville and West Chester are the democrat bases. What I do not know is if some of this vote was a backlash against Hillary for the Bill Clinton years.
6. Lancaster County - 54%-46% - This is one of the two most Republican Counties in the state. There are really conservatives of three different minds if they want to play mischief. One is to knock out the Clintons for good. Another is to vote for the weaker opponent. Lastly is to try and get them to kick the hell out of each other (where I stand right now). To be honest, this vote does puzzle me, with similar York County next door voting differently.
7. Union County - 52%-48% - The last county Obama won. It is the home of Bucknell University.
8. Montgomery County - 51%-49% Hillary - Suburban Philly. Obama needed to win here, but didn't. I think the feminist vote did him in. This is one of the favorite counties of the NOW gang and is a haven for rich leftists.
9. Cumberland - 53%-47% Hillary - West of Harrisburg. There are several small colleges here, but I wonder if the main vote was white government workers near Harrisburg.
10. Allegheny County - 54-46% Hillary - I bet almost all of Obama's vote was in the black sections of Pittsburgh, or the university crowd there from Pitt and Carnegie Mellon. He needed to win here and didn't.
11. York County - 55%-45% Hillary - I figured York and Lancaster would vote the same way as usual. Not this time.
In no other county did Obama get 45% or more.

3. Seniors run the show. As the left loves to point out, Al Gore won the popular vote. Bush won the popular vote in 2004. Both times, it was due to the seniors. They switched their vote overall in 2004 after voting for Clinton and Gore. They were back this year, for Clinton in a big way. Exit poll data:

Those 65 and older were 22% of the vote, and voted 63%-37% for Hillary Clinton. Add in the older Baby Boomers 50-64 to the Clinton total as well. Those 50-64 were 37% of the vote and went 56%-44% for Clinton.

Seniors vote, and will probably swing the election this November more than any other demographic.

4. McCain voters - 70%-30% for Obama. Most of the "mischief" vote went for Obama, not Hillary. Does that explain Lancaster, Cumberland, and part of Chester Counties?

5. Gender gap. 41% of the vote were men. They voted for Obama 52-48%. 59% of the vote were women. They voted for Hillary 57%-43% .

So what's next?
May 3 - Indiana and North Carolina
May 13 - West Virginia,
May 20 - Kentucky and Oregon
June 1 - Puerto Rico
June 3 - Montana and South Dakota.

I think Obama should be favored in North Carolina with the large black population and number of Universities there (Raleigh, Chapel Hill, Greensboro, Durham, Winston Salem, Wilmington, Charlotte, Asheville).

Indiana is one to watch. Hillary should win it, but I'm not counting out Obama here. Indianapolis will vote for blacks, even rather leftist ones like the Carson family. Gary will vote for Obama. Bloomington will be a big base for him as well with Indiana University. The base counties for democrats in Indiana in 04 are:

1. Lake County - Gary, Hammond, East Chicago - 61% Kerry
2. Monroe - Bloomington - 54% Kerry (Flipped from Bush in 2000 who won with 52%)
3. Marion - Indianapolis - 50% Kerry (flipped from Bush in 2000 who won with 50%)
4. LaPorte - Michigan City - 50% Kerry

2000 was much more favorable presidential year to democrats in Indiana, even though there was no real contest there. Gore won:
1. Lake County - 63% Gore
2. Perry County - 52% Gore - Rural, Bush won it in 04 with 50%
3. Laporte - 50% Gore
4. Scott County - 50% Gore - Rural, Bush won it in 04 with 55%
5. St Joseph County (South Bend) - 49% Gore, Bush won it in 04 with 51%

Delaware County (Muncie/Ball State) is 48% Democrat in 2000 and could factor in this race. It was 43% Dem in 04.
Madison County (Anderson) was 45% Democrat in 2000 and 40% Dem in 04.
Porter County (Gary Suburbs) was 46% Democrat in 2000 and 45% Dem in 04.
Stark County (North Rural) was 48% Democrat in 2000 and 45% Dem in 04.
Sullivan County (SW Rural) was 46% Democrat in 2000 and 40% Dem in 04.
Vigo County (Terre Haute/Indiana State) was 49% Democrat in 2000 and 46% Dem in 04.

There are a lot of state democrats/federal republicans in Indiana, largely in the Southern rural areas, and to a lesser extent, Evansville. That area, along with the similar Cincy area, turned on Bush in 06. These areas are heavily white. What will they do? Go back to Clinton, or go with Obama? I'd keep an eye on Tippecanoe as well. That's Purdue. It was 40% Dem in both 00 and 04, but West Lafayette is a college town.

I predicted Hillary to win Penn by 5% I was off a bit and underestimated the blue collar vote. I'm going to with Hillary by 10% in Indiana, and Obama by 10% in North Carolina. Hopefully, I'm right and they split the two states. That would be best for them beating up each other.

Pennsylvania Primary

Today's a big day for the democrats. I hope Hillary wins Pennsylvania big. Why? Because the closer the spread between the delegates, the better it is for the GOP. I would like to see them beat the hell out of each other.

My prediction - Hillary beats Obama by 5%, closer than some expect. Philly and their Burbs goes big for Obama. Hillary wins the T section, Scranton, Leigh Valley, and the Pittsburgh suburbs. Obama takes Harrisburg and the city of Pittsburgh.