State Senate Redistricting - District 38 (SD-38)

State Senate - District 38
Current Rep – Tom Casperson (R-Escanaba)

2010 Results - Old District (38th)
Tom Casperson - 49,868
Michael Lahti - 39,220

This is the most surprising pickup from the 2010 state senate districts. This very populist district has been democrat for years until now. Joe Mack (The Robert Byrd of Michigan in terms of pork) had it forever. Don Koivisto and Michael Prusi had it afterward. While the UP was starting to change federally, it is more democrat at the state level than the federal level. Casperson was the strongest candidate, but lost big to Stupak by a very large margin, although not as large as other candidates. He was a three term rep from a key swing area so he has shown strength. This is not a culturally liberal district on social issues, but it is economically populist. Old school democrats usually do well here. California bay area liberal types are disliked.

The district drops Luce County, but otherwise remains the same. That can help or hurt. Hurt due to its GOP leanings at the top of the ticket. Help due to state workers. The trouble with this district is that it is unable to take in Chippewa or Mackinac Counties which are more favorable to the GOP. Bush barely won this district in 2004 (two of his best yooper counties were Mackinac and Chippewa) and Obama won it in 2008.

While the UP is slowly treading our way, and took a major GOP swing in 2010 across the board, I'm not sold on this being a permanent alignment to anything but independent. While I have less knowledge of yoopers than I have on the sunrise side of the lower peninsula, one thing I learned quickly about Up North is that folks who live there have low tolerance of screw-ups and snake-oil salesmen. Most of the area has been ticket splitting for years. Bush won in 04. Obama in 08. Stupak every time he ran.

The Menominee/Iron Mountain/Escanaba area has been a swing area for years. It was Stupak and Casperson's home base. Dickinson County is slightly more Republican than Menominee, which is slightly more Republican than Delta County. All are winnable for either party.

Most of the Western UP outside of the Houghton area has been strongly democrat for generations. Now it is more independent outside of Ironwood and Gogebic County which still keeps its Joe Mack tradition alive and well. Houghton is now more competitive with the university being dominant, although not as democrat as most university areas.

Marquette tilts this district democrat. It's dominated by Northern Michigan University and is more culturally liberal than the rest of the populist UP. Marquette is also a union area. Casperson lowering the democrat vote spread here to around 500 was a major win. Alger County next to Marquette is also traditionally democrat.

The only way Casperson keeps this seat in 2014 outside of a 2010 type year is to run up big margins in his home areas to counter Marquette and Ironwood. It's possible, and if anyone can do it, it is Casperson. It will still be a very difficult defense for the GOP. The farm club for the democrats is vast. A good preview will be the 2012 state rep districts here, particularly the one in the Western UP. If we survive in the 110th, it will be a good omen for 2014. If not, I expect things to even out and for the SD-38 to be a swing district for Casperson, and democrat leaning for an open seat.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alger	2188	2472	4660	-284	46.95%	53.05%	-6.09%
Baraga	1846	1725	3571	121	51.69%	48.31%	3.39%
Delta	8763	9974	18737	-1211	46.77%	53.23%	-6.46%
Dickinson	7049	5995	13044	1054	54.04%	45.96%	8.08%
Gogebic	3330	4754	8084	-1424	41.19%	58.81%	-17.62%
Houghton	8101	7476	15577	625	52.01%	47.99%	4.01%
Iron	2974	3080	6054	-106	49.12%	50.88%	-1.75%
Keweenaw	756	610	1366	146	55.34%	44.66%	10.69%
Marquette	12906	19635	32541	-6729	39.66%	60.34%	-20.68%
Menominee	4855	5981	10836	-1126	44.80%	55.20%	-10.39%
Ontonagon	1823	1966	3789	-143	48.11%	51.89%	-3.77%
Schoolcraft	2058	2184	4242	-126	48.51%	51.49%	-2.97%
Total	56649	65852	122501	-9203	46.24%	53.76%	-7.51%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alger	2318	2395	4713	-77	49.18%	50.82%	-1.63%
Baraga	1977	1660	3637	317	54.36%	45.64%	8.72%
Delta	9680	9381	19061	299	50.78%	49.22%	1.57%
Dickinson	7734	5650	13384	2084	57.79%	42.21%	15.57%
Gogebic	3935	4421	8356	-486	47.09%	52.91%	-5.82%
Houghton	8889	6731	15620	2158	56.91%	43.09%	13.82%
Iron	3224	3215	6439	9	50.07%	49.93%	0.14%
Keweenaw	781	630	1411	151	55.35%	44.65%	10.70%
Marquette	14690	17412	32102	-2722	45.76%	54.24%	-8.48%
Menominee	5942	5326	11268	616	52.73%	47.27%	5.47%
Ontonagon	2262	1863	4125	399	54.84%	45.16%	9.67%
Schoolcraft	2267	2137	4404	130	51.48%	48.52%	2.95%
Total	63699	60821	124520	2878	51.16%	48.84%	2.31%
Last St Sen race	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alger	2120	1634	3754	486	56.47%	43.53%	12.95%
Baraga	1430	1230	2660	200	53.76%	46.24%	7.52%
Delta	8300	4868	13168	3432	63.03%	36.97%	26.06%
Dickinson	6229	3152	9381	3077	66.40%	33.60%	32.80%
Gogebic	2406	2927	5333	-521	45.12%	54.88%	-9.77%
Houghton	6385	5862	12247	523	52.14%	47.86%	4.27%
Iron	2507	2026	4533	481	55.31%	44.69%	10.61%
Keweenaw	605	513	1118	92	54.11%	45.89%	8.23%
Marquette	10580	11099	21679	-519	48.80%	51.20%	-2.39%
Menominee	4669	2606	7275	2063	64.18%	35.82%	28.36%
Ontonagon	1552	1382	2934	170	52.90%	47.10%	5.79%
Schoolcraft	1907	1280	3187	627	59.84%	40.16%	19.67%
Total	48690	38579	87269	10111	55.79%	44.21%	11.59%

A Closer Look at Northern Michigan's results

A closer look at Northern Michigan results

Until I get a close look at all of the municipalities themselves, I can’t get a real good read on most of the races. One of the exceptions is in Northern Michigan (called Up North locally) because of its rural character.

While the Republicans massacred the democrats this year throughout the country, no where was it more of a route than Up North. People who don’t know Michigan politics assume that because North Michigan is mostly rural, it is republican. No. It varies. The Lake Michigan coast in the Lower Peninsula are largely Gerry Ford types (With Traverse City itself leaning democrat, not as much as its reputation). The Northern Lower interior is very Conservative and mostly Republican north of Roscommon (Energy, middle class retirees) The Sunrise coast is a swing area (with Alpena leaning democrat) with its social conservative and labor influence. Roscommon Southeast to Northern Bay County is labor influenced (Corrections, retirees) and leans conservative democrat. The Western UP leans slightly democrat outside of Houghton area. The Eastern UP leans slightly Republican. The Marquette area is strongly democrat. The Menominee/Escanaba area swings with a slight democrat lean.

Not this time. Marquette, Alger, and Gogebic County (with Chippewa for McDowell only) are the only democrat counties this time in Northern Michigan. Why is this important statewide when the area has maybe 10% of the population? The reason is the number of normally competitive seats Up North. A plurality of our pickups were up North. Some of our best defenses were also up north. Ten seats there are realistically winnable by either party. That’s enough to flip control of either chambers in most years.

The UP results were most surprising to me. The yellow dogs are no more. They are either full ticketsplitters on the whole ticket or are now part of the Republican base. It is too early to consider them the base. It will take at least 8-10 years for that determination to happen. They gave the GOP a chance. Don’t blow it. What shocked me is that we took five UP based seats from the democrats. MI-01 wasn’t a surprise except for the margin. McDowell’s old seat was a matter of time, but largely due to Emmet County being a base county. Nerat’s seat was winnable. The old Lahti/Rich Brown was until recently what I call good enough to lose. It’s enough to suck you into thinking we’ll win, but was out of reach. Then there’s what is now Casperson’s win against the 2nd strongest democrat in the UP not named Stupak. That was a base seat for the democrats. The UP minus two Republican leaning counties.

The First District (MI-01) set the tale of the day. Dr. Dan Benishek beat McDowell by 10%. I thought this would be about 3%.

	Dan	Gary	Glenn	Other 3rd	TOTAL
COUNTY	Benishek	McDowell	Wilson		BY	Benishek	McDowell	Wilson	3rd
	REP	DEM	NPA		COUNTY
ALCONA	2,603	1,433	177	291	4,504	57.79%	31.82%	3.93%	6.46%
ALGER	1,749	1,761	113	148	3,771	46.38%	46.70%	3.00%	3.92%
ALPENA	5,569	3,794	320	343	10,026	55.55%	37.84%	3.19%	3.42%
ANTRIM	5,589	3,491	378	376	9,834	56.83%	35.50%	3.84%	3.82%
ARENAC	2,621	2,079	308	325	5,333	49.15%	38.98%	5.78%	6.09%
BARAGA	1,382	1,124	65	82	2,653	52.09%	42.37%	2.45%	3.09%
BAY	5,700	4,780	335	555	11,370	50.13%	42.04%	2.95%	4.88%
CHARLEVOIX	5,752	3,767	299	374	10,192	56.44%	36.96%	2.93%	3.67%
CHEBOYGAN	5,502	3,905	254	351	10,012	54.95%	39.00%	2.54%	3.51%
CHIPPEWA	5,477	5,775	221	293	11,766	46.55%	49.08%	1.88%	2.49%
CRAWFORD	2,547	1,805	178	291	4,821	52.83%	37.44%	3.69%	6.04%
DELTA	6,779	5,730	255	365	13,129	51.63%	43.64%	1.94%	2.78%
DICKINSON	5,577	3,421	220	218	9,436	59.10%	36.25%	2.33%	2.31%
EMMET	7,397	5,040	328	374	13,139	56.30%	38.36%	2.50%	2.85%
GLADWIN	4,520	3,439	314	527	8,800	51.36%	39.08%	3.57%	5.99%
GOGEBIC	2,313	2,759	107	144	5,323	43.45%	51.83%	2.01%	2.71%
HOUGHTON	6,628	4,926	200	407	12,161	54.50%	40.51%	1.64%	3.35%
IOSCO	4,611	3,539	696	697	9,543	48.32%	37.08%	7.29%	7.30%
IRON	2,432	1,894	102	131	4,559	53.35%	41.54%	2.24%	2.87%
KEWEENAW	641	412	24	30	1,107	57.90%	37.22%	2.17%	2.71%
LUCE	1,017	808	63	61	1,949	52.18%	41.46%	3.23%	3.13%
MACKINAC	2,351	2,200	0	135	4,686	50.17%	46.95%	0.00%	2.88%
MARQUETTE	9,301	11,181	539	727	21,748	42.77%	51.41%	2.48%	3.34%
MENOMINEE	3,823	2,999	107	209	7,138	53.56%	42.01%	1.50%	2.93%
MONTMORENCY	2,103	1,314	213	199	3,829	54.92%	34.32%	5.56%	5.20%
OGEMAW	3,461	2,592	1,045	327	7,425	46.61%	34.91%	14.07%	4.40%
ONTONAGON	1,455	1,278	63	94	2,890	50.35%	44.22%	2.18%	3.25%
OSCODA	1,520	946	436	171	3,073	49.46%	30.78%	14.19%	5.56%
OTSEGO	5,133	2,995	224	288	8,640	59.41%	34.66%	2.59%	3.33%
PRESQUE ISLE	2,914	2,203	136	198	5,451	53.46%	40.41%	2.49%	3.63%
SCHOOLCRAFT	1,587	1,423	51	112	3,173	50.02%	44.85%	1.61%	3.53%
	Dan	Gary	Glenn		TOTAL
COUNTY	Benishek	McDowell	Wilson		BY
	REP	DEM	NPA		COUNTY
Totals	120,054	94,813	7,771	8843	231,481	51.86%	40.96%	3.36%	3.82%

One other lesson here is the futility of 3rd party candidates to be anything more than a protest vote. Glenn Wilson was supposed to be a very strong 3rd party candidate. He didn’t get a majority of the 3rd party vote (did get plurality). 3rd party votes were high, but totaled slightly over 7%. In order for 3rd party votes to be a threat, it must reach 30%. Wilson was held under 4% despite some democrats openly campaigning for him with conservatives. This race proves that like it or not, it’s a two party system with some protest votes. If you are looking to change things, the only to do it is through the two party system.

I said that Dr Dan had to do better than normal in his home area (Western UP), the old Stupak home base, and the Sunrise coast to win. That’s to offset McDowell’s district advantage in the district in the Eastern UP and Emmet County, which is a GOP base county he’s won in the past. McDowell won Marquette County, Alger County, and Gogebic County where just about any democrat can win. He won Chippewa County, but lost Mackinac County. He was also demolished on the sunrise coast. This was an easiser than expected win for Dr Dan.

The big surprise was the 38th District which is solidly democrat downticket……until now. Former State Rep Tom Casperson beat who I expected to be a very strong Western UP candidate in Mike Lahti for the ticket. It wasn’t close either. Casperson won everywhere except Marquette and Gogebic Counties. Even the western UP went for Casperson. Like Dr Dan’s race, it was a 10 point win.

	Tom	Michael	TOTAL
COUNTY	Casperson	Lahti	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Casperson	Lahti
02 ALGER	2,120	1,634	3,754	56.47%	43.53%
07 BARAGA	1,430	1,230	2,660	53.76%	46.24%
21 DELTA	8,300	4,868	13,168	63.03%	36.97%
22 DICKINSON	6,229	3,152	9,381	66.40%	33.60%
27 GOGEBIC	2,406	2,927	5,333	45.12%	54.88%
31 HOUGHTON	6,385	5,862	12,247	52.14%	47.86%
36 IRON	2,507	2,026	4,533	55.31%	44.69%
42 KEWEENAW	605	513	1,118	54.11%	45.89%
48 LUCE	1,178	741	1,919	61.39%	38.61%
52 MARQUETTE	10,580	11,099	21,679	48.80%	51.20%
55 MENOMINEE	4,669	2,607	7,276	64.17%	35.83%
66 ONTONAGON	1,552	1,382	2,934	52.90%	47.10%
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,907	1,280	3,187	59.84%	40.16%
	Tom	Michael	TOTAL
COUNTY	Casperson	Lahti	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	49,868	39,321	89,189	55.91%	44.09%

	John	Andy	TOTAL
COUNTY	Moolenaar	Neumann	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Moolenaar	Neumann
01 ALCONA	2,767	1,744	4,511	61.34%	38.66%
04 ALPENA	5,259	4,750	10,009	52.54%	47.46%
20 CRAWFORD	2,824	1,843	4,667	60.51%	39.49%
26 GLADWIN	5,455	3,326	8,781	62.12%	37.88%
35 IOSCO	5,641	3,847	9,488	59.45%	40.55%
56 MIDLAND	20,245	8,301	28,546	70.92%	29.08%
60 MONTMORENCY	2,356	1,457	3,813	61.79%	38.21%
65 OGEMAW	4,434	2,892	7,326	60.52%	39.48%
68 OSCODA	1,894	1,140	3,034	62.43%	37.57%
69 OTSEGO	5,659	2,854	8,513	66.47%	33.53%
	John	Andy	TOTAL
COUNTY	Moolenaar	Neumann	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	56,534	32,154	88,688	63.74%	36.26%

The 36th district is usually competitive when open, but not even close this year. Moolenaar won almost 2-1 and won every county, even Andy Neumann’s home county, Alpena.

The 110th was usually good enough to lose. Houghton tilts Republican sometimes, but Iron and Gogebic usually combine to offset any possible advantage. Not this time. 11pt victory. I’m not sure when the last time the GOP won the district. They came close in 2000.

	Matt	Scott	TOTAL
COUNTY	Huuki	Dianda	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Huuki	Dianda
07 BARAGA	1,550	1,090	2,640	58.71%	41.29%
27 GOGEBIC	2,572	2,711	5,283	48.68%	51.32%
31 HOUGHTON	7,009	5,157	12,166	57.61%	42.39%
36 IRON	2,389	2,028	4,417	54.09%	45.91%
42 KEWEENAW	632	477	1,109	56.99%	43.01%
52 MARQUETTE	148	174	322	45.96%	54.04%
66 ONTONAGON	1,731	1,177	2,908	59.53%	40.47%
	Matt	Scott	TOTAL
COUNTY	Huuki	Dianda	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	16,031	12,814	28,845	55.58%	44.42%

108th was starting to be a swing district, but the dems took it back recently when Casperson ran for Congress. Judy Nerat took the open seat. I thought this could be competitive, but I did not expect a 20 pt loss.

108th	Ed	Judy	TOTAL
COUNTY	McBroom	Nerat	BY	McBroom	Nerat
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
21 DELTA	7,431	5,571	13,002	57.15%	42.85%
22 DICKINSON	6,341	3,038	9,379	67.61%	32.39%
55 MENOMINEE	3,962	3,263	7,225	54.84%	45.16%
	Ed	Judy	TOTAL
COUNTY	McBroom	Nerat	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	17,734	11,872	29,606	59.90%	40.10%

I expected the 107th to flip, but not a 2-1 margin.

107th	Frank	Richard	TOTAL
COUNTY	Foster	Timmer	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Foster	Timmer
16 CHEBOYGAN	1,181	500	1,681	70.26%	29.74%
17 CHIPPEWA	6,397	5,079	11,476	55.74%	44.26%
24 EMMET	8,852	4,070	12,922	68.50%	31.50%
49 MACKINAC	2,907	1,701	4,608	63.09%	36.91%
	Frank	Richard	TOTAL
COUNTY	Foster	Timmer	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	19,337	11,350	30,687	63.01%	36.99%

The 106th was a shock to me. It was another district which was “good enough to lose.” Alpena and Presque Isle counties are usually solidly democrat down ticket. Peter Pettalia won Alpena by 14pts which makes this a 20pt win. Andy Neumann and Matt Gillard had this district for years.

106th	Peter	Casey	Nicholas	TOTAL
COUNTY	Pettalia	Viegelahn	Hein	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	NPA	COUNTY	Pettalia	Casey	Hein
01 ALCONA	2,866	1,438	178	4,482	63.94%	32.08%	3.97%
04 ALPENA	5,563	4,151	269	9,983	55.72%	41.58%	2.69%
20 CRAWFORD	2,923	1,528	255	4,706	62.11%	32.47%	5.42%
60 MONTMORENCY	2,359	1,227	195	3,781	62.39%	32.45%	5.16%
68 OSCODA	1,896	906	198	3,000	63.20%	30.20%	6.60%
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,489	2,494	403	5,386	46.21%	46.31%	7.48%
	Peter	Casey	Nicholas	TOTAL
COUNTY	Pettalia	Viegelahn	Hein	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	NPA	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	18,096	11,744	1,498	31,338	57.74%	37.48%	4.78%

The 103rd district tilts slightly republican at the top of the ticket, but they love the Sheltrowns, at least Dale and Joel. Van couldn’t win this seat however. I didn’t expect this to be a 25pt win, nor every county going republican here.

	Bruce	Van	TOTAL
COUNTY	Rendon	Sheltrown	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Rendon	Dem
35 IOSCO	5,516	3,986	9,502	58.05%	41.95%
57 MISSAUKEE	4,006	1,198	5,204	76.98%	23.02%
65 OGEMAW	4,348	3,112	7,460	58.28%	41.72%
72 ROSCOMMON	6,060	3,662	9,722	62.33%	37.67%
	Bruce	Van	TOTAL
COUNTY	Rendon	Sheltrown	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	19,930	11,958	31,888	62.50%	37.50%

The 101st. District nearly flipped in 2006, and did flip in 2008. Both times, Dan Scripps was the democrat. He lost after one term in a 2008 rematch. This was close, but the top of the ticket likely carried Ray Franz past the finish line, just as Obama carried Scripps.

	Ray	Dan	TOTAL
COUNTY	Franz	Scripps	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Franz	Scripps
10 BENZIE	3,791	3,704	7,495	50.58%	49.42%
45 LEELANAU	5,881	5,433	11,314	51.98%	48.02%
51 MANISTEE	4,483	4,576	9,059	49.49%	50.51%
53 MASON	5,231	4,781	10,012	52.25%	47.75%
	Ray	Dan	TOTAL
COUNTY	Franz	Scripps	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	19,386	18,494	37,880	51.18%	48.82%

The 97th was expected to be a tough defense. Jennifer Elkins won in 2002 for the dems. She lost to Tim Moore who won three terms and left it open. This wasn’t close. Every county is competitive here most years, not this one.

	Joel	Mark	Brandon	TOTAL
COUNTY	Johnson	Lightfoot	Dickhausen	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	LIB	COUNTY	Johnson	Lightfoot	Lib
06 ARENAC	2,877	1,899	550	5,326	54.02%	35.66%	10.33%
09 BAY	2,893	2,343	306	5,542	52.20%	42.28%	5.52%
18 CLARE	5,777	3,179	267	9,223	62.64%	34.47%	2.89%
26 GLADWIN	5,272	3,236	269	8,777	60.07%	36.87%	3.06%
	Joel	Mark	Brandon	TOTAL
COUNTY	Johnson	Lightfoot	Dickhausen	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	LIB	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	16,819	10,657	1,392	28,868	58.26%	36.92%	4.82%

It was a massacre, and is a big reason why the house flipped and the senate stayed in GOP was because of the results up north.