MI-08 - Bryan Barnett drops out. Now it's a one on one primary

From the Argus

Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett has withdrawn his 8th Congressional District candidacy.
Barnett, a Republican, had filed Tuesday for the seat, currently held by retiring U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton.
“Honestly, the thought of a difficult and divisive campaign between three Rochester Hills residents seems counterproductive at best,” Barnett said in a prepared statement.
In other news, state Rep. Tom McMillin, R-Rochester Hills, withdrew his bid for an Oakland County state Senate seat to focus on the 8th District race.
That decision sets up a GOP primary with former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop, who has been endorsed by Rogers.

Barnett dropping wasn't significant in Livingston County, but quite significant in Oakland County. He got 77% twice in Rochester Hills. This favors Mike Bishop most likely. Barnett had a lot of establishment support in Oakland County, including L Brooks Patterson. He did have a tough road to victory, especially with Joe Hune not running  and taking the Livingston and rural Ingham County vote with him. That's not a shot at Barnett. He just wasn't well known here. Rochester Hills is over an hour drive from Brighton.

While this didn't start out this way, I can see this starting to turn into an ideological based primary. Bishop had some tea party support in 2010 and isn't disliked by them, but Tom McMillin is a hero to many tea partiers which could automatically turn Bishop into an enemy of at least many tea party groups.

Justin Amash types are also supporting McMillin heavily. Amash can not stand Mike Rogers (or vice versa), so this could also end up being a proxy battle to some extent as Rogers endorsed Bishop early and Amash wanted McMillin to run from the start.  While I hope this isn't the case, I can see the knives being sharpened already by "friends of the program." Advice to all sides, negative campaigning doesn't work well in Livingston County and is known to backfire.

Joe Hune not running was a big game changer here for what he did not do. McMillin wasn't going to run against Joe. McMillin knows he needs the conservative vote in Livingston County to have a chance, and Joe would have wrapped that up from the start. Joe also had significant "establishment" support as well. 

The winner goes through Livingston County, and rural Ingham to a lesser extent. Bishop will get some of the Rogers vote automatically. McMillin gets the Amash and Campaign for Liberty vote off the bat. The winner of this primary will come down to who gets what would have been the "Joe Hune" vote. Joe's strong with tea party, but was really strongest ideologically with the regular old conservatives that don't like labels. Will they vote Bishop or McMillin? That remains to be seen, and I don't think it is set in stone. 

Bishop set up campaign office in Brighton. He's got good campaign staff in the county (some from the county). That's a smart move. I expect McMillin will work hard in this county as well.

The dems have a four way primary. Hopefully that one is as ugly and bloody as the 98 gubernatorial primary for them.

State House Redistricting - District 45 (HD-45)

State House - District 45
Current Rep - Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills)

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Tom McMillin (R- Rochester Hills)
Dem - Ted Golden (D-Rochester Hills), Joanne VanRaaphorst (D-Rochester), Douglas Wilson (D-Rochester Hills)

Update 5-26-2012 - Surprisingly a three way primary here. McMillin is extremely disliked by the MEA, so I can see them trying to make a run here.

Update 8-30-2012 - Joanne VanRaaphorst won the primary. 

2010 Results - Old District (45th)
Tom McMillin - 24,974
Mary Ward - 11,815


This district contracted and got slightly less Republican, but should stay ours. The old district covered Rochester, Rochester Hills, and all of Oakland Township. It dropped part of Oakland Township but otherwise stays the same.

The new district is about a 51% McCain district, but Rochester and Rochester Hills is stronger GOP downticket. McCain won it narrowly. McMillin won it by a much bigger margin in 2008 than McCain did. However this area and the Troy area are two districts to keep an eye on for the future. They should stay ours, but they should not be taken for granted as Obama did very well there in 2008. Part of it was an aberration (I consider 08 AND 10 aberrations and floor/ceiling numbers) but it's still something to keep an eye on when it is an open seat.

Be careful what you wish for

The MEA is celebrating their victory after taking out Paul Scott. Scott is fairly conservative, but his replacement is a lot more conservative when it comes to educational issues. Tom McMillin.

As the left wing Huffington Post says.

Well, guess what? There seems to be no plan to change course. As Ballenger predicted, the recall has resulted in a worse outcome for Michigan teachers, as today Speaker of the House Jase Bolger (R-Marshall) named state Representative Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills) to serve as the interim chair of the Education Committee. The Michigan Information and Research Service recently named McMillin as the lawmaker in the state with the most conservative voting record, and he's long been opposed by the MEA because of his support for public school privatization.

As former GOP Michigan Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop tweeted, "The MEA spent $150k dollars only to get their nemesis, Representative Tom McMillin, appointed as the chairman of the education committee."

Politics is a marathon and not a sprint and one must always be prepared for unintended consequences. Right now, all the MEA did was piss off the GOP, even those who are less hardline than say a McMillin. McMillan's district is a lot more difficult for the dems, even with redistricting making his new district slightly more difficult. I don't think the MEA wants McMillin as chair.

But but but.....doesn't this recall send a message that they can't do this? The answer is this. They recalled someone. So what. I repeat. So what. Screw it.

Here's why.

Paul Scott was recalled in an odd number year with low turnout. The MEA is master of the low turnout odd number year election. That's their win. They got it. Give them credit.

However, there's a decent chance that all that money was spent for one thing. A vacancy. Why?

A. The special election for Scott's replacement is the same day as the presidential primary. There will be some crossover votes, but the GOP will turn out heavily that day for obvious reasons. Advantage GOP. If the GOP wins the open seat in February, than all the MEA won with the recall was 3 months of one less GOP vote and bragging rights. If this recall took place in say 2005, then it would be much more significant than in 2011.

B. Redistricting. Genesee County lost population. Grand Blanc and Mundy Twp join with Burton. Burton is solidly democrat. The dems are going to take that seat barring a massive upset. The new 51st trades off Grand Blanc and Mundy for the Flushing area and parts of North Oakland County. I didn't run the numbers, but it is probably more republican than the old district thanks to Groveland and Rose Twps in Oakland County. So even if the dems take the old 51st, the new one is going to be much harder to keep. Doh!

As the old saying goes, don't hunt what you can't kill.