Don't forget the special elections! Joe Graves and Bob Gray are running for state house

While all the hype for the February 28th Special election is for the presidential primary, there are some other elections going on that day. Two of the most important are in the state house where there's two vacancies. These are the OLD districts, not the redistricted areas which do not take affect electionwise until August.

Bob Gray is running in the old 29th District, covering Pontiac and Auburn Hills. This is a longshot, but if there is any chance at all of winning, it is due to the republican presidential primary being on the same day. If most of Pontiac stays home, we have a shot. This election is to replace Tim Melton who resigned to take a job at an educational organization.

The other election is highly contested between Joe Graves and MEA Union official Steve Losey in the old 51st district. This is to replace the recalled Paul Scott who was scalped by the MEA last year. All their work could be for nothing if Joe Graves wins the replacement election. This is in Southern Genesee County.

If you're a Republican in Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Argentine Twp, Mundy Twp, Fenton, Linden, Grand Blanc, or Atlas Twp, this election is extra important with the state rep races. Joe Graves and Bob Gray are on Tuesday's ballot.

State House Redistricting - District 51 (HD-51)

State House - District 51
Current Rep -Joseph Graves (R-Linden)

Candidates:
GOP - Joseph Graves (R-Linden),
Dem - Steven Losey (D-Linden),

Update 5-26-2012 - Joseph Graves is the incumbent due to his win in the Feb 28th special election to replace the recalled Paul Scott. Graves had 10,290 to Losey's 8,173. Graves and Losey are running again as both are in the new district. A rematch is likely, but both need to get past their primaries first.

Update 8-30-2012 - Graves and Losey get their rematch

2010 Results - Old District (51st)
Paul Scott - 22,509
Art Reyes - 15,275

This district is a big different than the old 51st. It expanded into Oakland County. The old district stayed in Genesee County and covered Argentine Twp, Atlas Twp, Fenton, Grand Blanc, Linden, and Mundy Twp.

The new district drops competitive Grand Blanc and democrat leaning Mundy Twp. It picks up the swing areas of Gaines Twp and Flushing Twp. It also picks up from Oakland County, Holly (swing), Rose (GOP), and Groveland Twps (GOP).

For the "last state house" numbers, I'm going to wait until the Feb 28th recall replacement election happens, because it will be the first numbers for Graves/Losey. The new district should lean republican, as even McCain won it. The old district was competitive, but the GOP with Roberston who took the district from the democrats in 2002. He was able to hang on to it three times. Paul Scott won it twice, but got recalled in a narrow vote when the MEA went to war. This is a new district however, and one that I think favors us.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Genesee County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Argentine Twp	1845	1791	3636	54	50.74%	49.26%	1.49%
Atlas Twp	2481	2129	4610	352	53.82%	46.18%	7.64%
Clayton Twp	2035	2385	4420	-350	46.04%	53.96%	-7.92%
Fenton	2709	3129	5838	-420	46.40%	53.60%	-7.19%
Fenton Twp	4847	4111	8958	736	54.11%	45.89%	8.22%
Flushing Twp	2327	2719	5046	-392	46.12%	53.88%	-7.77%
Gaines Twp	1790	2078	3868	-288	46.28%	53.72%	-7.45%
Linden	1143	1082	2225	61	51.37%	48.63%	2.74%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Groveland Twp	1769	1275	3044	494	58.11%	41.89%	16.23%
Holly Twp	2678	2969	5647	-291	47.42%	52.58%	-5.15%
Rose Twp	1936	1573	3509	363	55.17%	44.83%	10.34%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	25560	25241	50801	319	50.31%	49.69%	0.63%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Genesee County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Argentine Twp	1981	1483	3464	498	57.19%	42.81%	14.38%
Atlas Twp	2606	1704	4310	902	60.46%	39.54%	20.93%
Clayton Twp	2162	2134	4296	28	50.33%	49.67%	0.65%
Fenton	3026	2554	5580	472	54.23%	45.77%	8.46%
Fenton Twp	5319	3570	8889	1749	59.84%	40.16%	19.68%
Flushing Twp	3298	2849	6147	449	53.65%	46.35%	7.30%
Gaines Twp	1905	1930	3835	-25	49.67%	50.33%	-0.65%
Linden	1250	853	2103	397	59.44%	40.56%	18.88%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Groveland Twp	1988	1204	3192	784	62.28%	37.72%	24.56%
Holly Twp	2813	2442	5255	371	53.53%	46.47%	7.06%
Rose Twp	2139	1337	3476	802	61.54%	38.46%	23.07%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	28487	22060	50547	6427	56.36%	43.64%	12.71%

State House Redistricting - District 50 (HD-50)

State House - District 50
Current Rep - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)

Candidates:
GOP - Miles Gadola (R-Grand Blanc)
Dem - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)

Update 5-26-2012 - This is what gets me about that whole Paul Scott recall in the first place. Redistricting would have caught him. All that recall did was set up Joe Graves in the 51st. There's no primary here. If it's a good year and Gadola runs a top shelf campaign with the help he needs, then he has a chance. Smiley is favored to win however with Burton.

2010 Results - Old District (50th)
Charles Smiley - 13,647
William Ralph - 12,134

Old District 51st
Paul Scott - 22,509
Art Reyes - 15,275

This district changed significantly from the old 50th. It drops everything except Burton and picks up Mundy Twp and Grand Blanc City/Twp from the old 51st. Paul Scott would be in this district, but he was recalled last November. If Joe Graves replaces him, he would be in the new 51st.

I can see this district being competitive in a 2010 type of year, but in most years it will lean democrat. While Bush won it in 04, the Grand Blanc area is not trending favorably with more of Flint moving there. Burton has been democrat as long as I remember, and Mundy Twp leans that way. It would take big numbers in Grand Blanc to win this district. This seat leans dem until proven otherwise.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	4981	9057	14038	-4076	35.48%	64.52%	-29.04%
Grand Blanc	1991	2411	4402	-420	45.23%	54.77%	-9.54%
Grand Blanc Twp	8309	10951	19260	-2642	43.14%	56.86%	-13.72%
Mundy Twp	3688	4807	8495	-1119	43.41%	56.59%	-13.17%
Total	18969	27226	46195	-8257	41.06%	58.94%	-17.87%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	5829	8304	14133	-2475	41.24%	58.76%	-17.51%
Grand Blanc	2394	1985	4379	409	54.67%	45.33%	9.34%
Grand Blanc Twp	9369	8862	18231	507	51.39%	48.61%	2.78%
Mundy Twp	3999	4102	8101	-103	49.36%	50.64%	-1.27%
Total	21591	23253	44844	-1662	48.15%	51.85%	-3.71%
Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	3610	4757	8367	-1147	43.15%	56.85%	-13.71%
Grand Blanc			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grand Blanc Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Mundy Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	3610	4757	8367	-1147	43.15%	56.85%	-13.71%

Be careful what you wish for

The MEA is celebrating their victory after taking out Paul Scott. Scott is fairly conservative, but his replacement is a lot more conservative when it comes to educational issues. Tom McMillin.

As the left wing Huffington Post says.

Well, guess what? There seems to be no plan to change course. As Ballenger predicted, the recall has resulted in a worse outcome for Michigan teachers, as today Speaker of the House Jase Bolger (R-Marshall) named state Representative Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills) to serve as the interim chair of the Education Committee. The Michigan Information and Research Service recently named McMillin as the lawmaker in the state with the most conservative voting record, and he's long been opposed by the MEA because of his support for public school privatization.

As former GOP Michigan Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop tweeted, "The MEA spent $150k dollars only to get their nemesis, Representative Tom McMillin, appointed as the chairman of the education committee."

Politics is a marathon and not a sprint and one must always be prepared for unintended consequences. Right now, all the MEA did was piss off the GOP, even those who are less hardline than say a McMillin. McMillan's district is a lot more difficult for the dems, even with redistricting making his new district slightly more difficult. I don't think the MEA wants McMillin as chair.

But but but.....doesn't this recall send a message that they can't do this? The answer is this. They recalled someone. So what. I repeat. So what. Screw it.

Here's why.

Paul Scott was recalled in an odd number year with low turnout. The MEA is master of the low turnout odd number year election. That's their win. They got it. Give them credit.

However, there's a decent chance that all that money was spent for one thing. A vacancy. Why?

A. The special election for Scott's replacement is the same day as the presidential primary. There will be some crossover votes, but the GOP will turn out heavily that day for obvious reasons. Advantage GOP. If the GOP wins the open seat in February, than all the MEA won with the recall was 3 months of one less GOP vote and bragging rights. If this recall took place in say 2005, then it would be much more significant than in 2011.

B. Redistricting. Genesee County lost population. Grand Blanc and Mundy Twp join with Burton. Burton is solidly democrat. The dems are going to take that seat barring a massive upset. The new 51st trades off Grand Blanc and Mundy for the Flushing area and parts of North Oakland County. I didn't run the numbers, but it is probably more republican than the old district thanks to Groveland and Rose Twps in Oakland County. So even if the dems take the old 51st, the new one is going to be much harder to keep. Doh!

As the old saying goes, don't hunt what you can't kill.

Paul Scott Recalled. So what's next?

Well, this is bad news. The MEA spent $130K and got their scalp. It looks like the remaining precincts to be reported were Mundy Twp and next to Flint.

While the Genesee County site hasn't updated further, other places have. Two sources are saying it's over, so I'll go with it.

From the Free Press

State Rep. Paul Scott, R-Grand Blanc, became the first state legislator to be recalled in a generation after he conceded defeat in a recall election today.

The recall was backed by the Michigan Education Association.

Michigan Radio

Update 11:35 p.m.

Rick Pluta just called in to say that Michigan State Representative Paul Scott (R-Grand Blanc) has been recalled. Scott conceded defeat saying his campaign did their best, they came up short, and that he will not rule out running again in the future.

Scott is the first sitting state lawmaker to be recalled since 1983.

11:31 p.m.

This tweet just came from the Michigan Information and Research Service:

Recall Paul Scott team aware of numbers showing recall was successful by margin of 232 votes; not willing to declare victory yet.

10:55 p.m.

Still too close to call. With 83% of the precincts counted, the vote is 51% against the recall.

Rick Pluta just called in to say sources are telling him that lawyers are heading to Mundy Township to check into the count there.

Pluta reports that recall supporters have to do well in this traditionally Democratic township for the recall to succeed.

So what's next? The Secretary of State explains it in layman's terms.

1. The GOP and Dems will nominate a candidate for the vacant HD-51 position. There is NO primary. The nominee will be chosen by the Genesee County Political Parties.

2. There will be a new special election in February. This will be run the same way as a normal general election.

It's time for paybacks. Hold this district, and go after the dems, especially the MEA dems in other seats. They want to start a fight. Give them what they want.

One last thing. Close to home, the Trombley mailing was illegal and the local MEA affiliates was turned in for it. Again.