A less government conservative Republican from Livingston County, MI
Opinions on this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Livingston County Republican Party.
Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett has withdrawn his 8th Congressional District candidacy.
Barnett, a Republican, had filed Tuesday for the seat, currently held by retiring U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton.
“Honestly,
the thought of a difficult and divisive campaign between three
Rochester Hills residents seems counterproductive at best,” Barnett said
in a prepared statement.
In
other news, state Rep. Tom McMillin, R-Rochester Hills, withdrew his
bid for an Oakland County state Senate seat to focus on the 8th District
race.
That decision sets up a GOP primary with former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop, who has been endorsed by Rogers.
Barnett dropping wasn't significant in Livingston County, but quite significant in Oakland County. He got 77% twice in Rochester Hills. This favors Mike Bishop most likely. Barnett had a lot of establishment support in Oakland County, including L Brooks Patterson. He did have a tough road to victory, especially with Joe Hune not running and taking the Livingston and rural Ingham County vote with him. That's not a shot at Barnett. He just wasn't well known here. Rochester Hills is over an hour drive from Brighton.
While this didn't start out this way, I can see this starting to turn into an ideological based primary. Bishop had some tea party support in 2010 and isn't disliked by them, but Tom McMillin is a hero to many tea partiers which could automatically turn Bishop into an enemy of at least many tea party groups.
Justin Amash types are also supporting McMillin heavily. Amash can not stand Mike Rogers (or vice versa), so this could also end up being a proxy battle to some extent as Rogers endorsed Bishop early and Amash wanted McMillin to run from the start. While I hope this isn't the case, I can see the knives being sharpened already by "friends of the program." Advice to all sides, negative campaigning doesn't work well in Livingston County and is known to backfire.
Joe Hune not running was a big game changer here for what he did not do. McMillin wasn't going to run against Joe. McMillin knows he needs the conservative vote in Livingston County to have a chance, and Joe would have wrapped that up from the start. Joe also had significant "establishment" support as well.
The winner goes through Livingston County, and rural Ingham to a lesser extent. Bishop will get some of the Rogers vote automatically. McMillin gets the Amash and Campaign for Liberty vote off the bat. The winner of this primary will come down to who gets what would have been the "Joe Hune" vote. Joe's strong with tea party, but was really strongest ideologically with the regular old conservatives that don't like labels. Will they vote Bishop or McMillin? That remains to be seen, and I don't think it is set in stone.
Bishop set up campaign office in Brighton. He's got good campaign staff in the county (some from the county). That's a smart move. I expect McMillin will work hard in this county as well.
The dems have a four way primary. Hopefully that one is as ugly and bloody as the 98 gubernatorial primary for them.
The filing deadline is in. I'll update this if data comes in late.
Before I get to the rest of ballot, there are no primaries for Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Board of Education, the education boards of trustees/regents for MSU, UM, and Wayne State, or Supreme Court. These are decided in state conventions. Convention nominations are elected by state delegates. State delegates are elected at county conventions by precinct delegates. Preinct delegates are elected in the August primary. The filing deadline for those are May 6th and interested parties file at the County Clerk's office. In Livingston County, that's at the courthouse in downtown Howell.
For the offices:
Governor:
Rick Snyder (R - Superior Twp)
Mark Schauer (D - Battle Creek)
Anybody but Schauer. Gun grabbing, partial birth abortion, Granholm's taxes, Obamacare, and Cap and trade.
Senate:
Terri Lynn Land (R-Byron Township)
Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township)
We have an actual shot here and the pundits are finally starting to figure this out. I met Land in 2002. She was not supposed to be the nominee and ended up winning due to hard work on the campaign trail. Land will work hard and give us a chance. As for Peters, that boy will do whatever Reid tells him to do.
Congress - 8th District (MI-08)
GOP - Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), and Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills)
Dem - Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing)
This district leans slightly Republican because of Livingston County and North Oakland County. However, all of Ingham County is in the district, and anything with Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp isn't completely safe. Schertzing has won countywide in Ingham County, but how many people know who the treasurer is? It's an important position, but behind the scenes more than a prosecutor. In a 3 and 4 way primary, a lot of things can happen.
State Senate - 22nd District (SD-22)
GOP - Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)
Dem - Shari Pollesch (D-Hartland Township)
Redistricting did make this seat more difficult as it swaps the swing areas of Shiawassee County and slightly Republican parts of Ingham County for most of Western Washtenaw County. Shiawassee County voted for Obama twice, but it's also friendly territory for Joe Hune. About 2/3 of this district is still Livingston County, and the most democrat parts of Washtenaw stay with Rebekah Warren. This is still safe. Chelsea and Scio Township can not carry a district for Pollesch. Even McCain won this district, and Joe's not going to be outworked.
State Rep
42nd District (HD-42)
GOP - Nick Fiani (R-Genoa Twp), Rich Perlberg (R-Brighton Twp), Dale Rogers (R-Putnam Twp), Lana Theis (R-Brighton Twp)
Dem - Timothy Johnson (D-Genoa Twp)
I'm not worried about the general here. Johnson already put his foot in his mouth with his guilty white leftist comments as well as his anti-2nd Amendment comments (guns for me, not for you). I think even a certain recalled Hamburg Township official would win this district without much of a problem. That may be a little cocky, but I'm usually cautious in my predictions. If I'm Nick, Rich, Dale, or Lana, I'd keep the dem talking. Beyond all of that, Johnson is a Wayne County guy who just moved here in 2012. While we're open to transplants including Wayne County transplants (like most of my family), many of us, including the transplants, don't want people to turn our county into the county the transplants left, especially Wayne County. People left Wayne County for a reason.
The main battle will be in the primary. The primary will be interesting. All bring their own backgrounds to the election. Nick Fiani is the president of the Brighton School Board. Rich Perlberg was the publisher for the local paper for years. Dale Rogers is a teacher. Lana Theis is Brighton Township treasurer and past GOP Chair.
47th District (HD-47)
GOP - Phil Campbell (R-Howell), Wendy Day (R-Marion Twp), Harold Melton (R-Howell Twp), Ted Ring (R-Hartland Twp), Dr Hank Vaupel (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Jordan Genso (D-Marion Twp)
This is on paper one of the five safest districts in the state. The biggest problem for Jordan Genso is that there are only 3 places in this district that even voted for Carl Levin (who won nearly 2-1 statewide) against a sacrificial lamb candidate. Howell, Handy Twp, and Unadilla Twp. Stabenow in 2012 only won Howell against a weak nominee (due to lazy campaign). With a five way primary however, the potential is there for a disaster if (and a big if) a candidate emerges heavily wounded compounded with other candidate supporters skipping the race. That's Genso's ghost of a chance. I don't expect Jordan to beat himself, unlike Johnson who frankly already has beaten himself. This is a 60%+ district in almost all years, so when I mean ghost of a chance, I'm referring to Scott Brown level.
The primary will be big here. Phil Campbell is Mayor of Howell, Wendy Day is a tea party activist and former Howell School Board member. Harold Melton is an activist and retired construction worker. Ted Ring is a former teacher and business owner. Dr Hank Vaupel is a veterinarian and Handy Twp Supervisor.
County Commissioner
Right now, there are the following contests. In Livingston County, it takes a disaster for a democrat to win any partisan contest. That does not mean that Republicans don't need to work. Lazy candidates contribute to a disaster. If our candidates are smart, work hard, and do not beat themselves, they will win. Some areas are safer than others. Our job is to not beat ourselves and to continue to do good work. The dems are bragging about finding 9 people to put $100 in (or 20 signatures) to run for the commissioner spots. Congratulations. They did what anybody should be able to do. That doesn't mean they have good candidates. It means they have names on the ballot. That's it.
District 1 (City of Brighton, most of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Kate Lawrence (R-Brighton)
Dem - Bruce Schneider (D-Brighton Twp)
This is a rematch. Lawrence won with 67% in 2012. The only way a dem wins here is by a massive win in the City of Brighton. Brighton Twp doesn't vote for dems, and Lawrence was Mayor of Brighton City. She's a matchup nightmare for any dem.
District 2 (Deefield, Oceola, small part of Hartland)
GOP - Bill Green (R-Deerfield Twp)
Dem - Jeanette DiFlorio (D-?)
This is also a rematch. Green won with 65% in 2012. Deefield and Oceola don't vote for dems.
District 3 (Tyrone, most of Hartland)
GOP - Dave Domas (R-Tyrone Twp)
Dem - Ronda Trouse (D-?)
Tyrone's moved a bit to the right in the past 20 years. Stabenow won it years ago (96?), but lost it bad to Hoekstra who was a bad candidate (fundraising and inactivity). Levin lost it to Hoogendyk and he's done the best of any dem in the county since Frank Kelley (who was the last dem to win the county). Hartland doesn't vote for dems.
District 4 (Conway, Handy, Iosco, Unadilla, part of Putnam)
GOP - Ron Van Houten (R-Iosco Twp) Doug Helzerman (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Donald Pushies (D-Conway Twp)
This district has a large number of independents. Conway's a 60%+ area at the top of the ticket, but had a dem township supervisor not all that long ago. Handy Twp likes their locals and while it's fairly strongly Republican, it fluctuates heavily based on candidate quality. Hune got 80% there before, but Stabenow also got 46% against Hoekstra, 6% ahead of Obama. Iosco is a more conservative version of Handy Twp in voting habits unless the GOP'er has strong ties to Handy Twp. Unadilla will still vote for some dems, although it's now Republican at the top of the ticket. The part of Putnam in the district leans democrat. Romney did very well in the district, but Hoekstra barely won it. The dems have what is likely an MEA connected candidate here. There's a couple of names that would really concern me here, but they didn't run. I don't see the MEA selling here, but we have to take this race seriously. The SW part of ths district sometimes goes dem, but they prefer their locals there. Pushies is 20 miles from there.
District 5 (Cohoctah, Howell, Howell Twp)
GOP - Don Parker (R-Howell)
Dem - Mike Tipton (D-Howell Twp)
Mike "34%" Tipton wants a rematch. Tipton couldn't crack 35% in a special election where there were no straight ticket voters hurting him. We were worried about Tipton last time since we were somewhat blind to his chances in a special election. We're not blind now. This time, we know what he's about. This time, it's a regular off year election. He's got a big mouth and will throw a lot of bombs, and we'll be ready for him. His big city style doesn't work in Livingston County.
District 6 (Marion Twp, most of Putnam Twp, small part of Hamburg)
GOP - Steve Williams (R-Marion Twp), Steven Hart (R-Marion Twp?)
Dem - Lesa Doa (D-Marion Twp)
Steve Williams has a primary against Steven Hart. I don't know anything about Hart except that I think he may be a Pinckney cop. Interesting primary. Hopefully it doesn't get nasty.
Lesa Doa is Jordan Genso's wife. Genso is running in the 47th. This district could get interesting depending on matchups but it's a major geographic mismatch for Doa. Genso's geographic base is Hartland. For the 47th, that's not a big deal as Hartland's in the district (Joe Hune lives in Hamburg, but he's a Fowlerville guy) Here, Hartland is not in the district, so Genso's base can't help her. I went to school with one of the Doas. Their base would be in the Brighton area, particularly the Brighton part of Genoa Township. Why is that important? The only way any democrat wins in Livingston County is with a large number of crossover voters. Steve Williams doesn't make a lot of mistakes or put his foot in his mouth. 15-20 years from now in an open seat matchup, this matchup would concern me much more than it does now if Jordan and Lesa stay in Marion Twp. The southwestern part of the county is quite independent and more apt to split their ticket, but it's also very geographic provincial. They'll vote for Hune/Donahue. This isn't a completely safe district due to Putnam's independent streak, but Steve Williams is a good candidate here.
District 7 (Genoa Twp)
GOP - Carol Griffith (R-Genoa Twp)
Dem - Jim Delcamp (D-Genoa Twp)
Safe R. Genoa Township doesn't vote democrat, unless it's a closet dem running as a Republican (not referring to Carol). I'll safe that story for another day. Carol's a very good commissioner and shouldn't have any troubles. This is one of the three most Republican district's in the county. Delcamp's run several times for office and hasn't been successful.
District 8 (most of Hamburg, small part of Green Oak)
GOP - Dennis Dolan (R-Hamburg)
Dem - Jim Katakowski (D-Hamburg)
This is a rematch. Dolan won last time with 58%, basically running with the top of the ticket. This could be a tough district if we have a bad matchup, but I'm not worried about a rematch here as long as we are prepared. We will be.
District 9 (Most of Green Oak, part of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Gary Childs (R-Green Oak)
Dem - Barry McBride (D-Green Oak)
Green Oak's heavily independent, but has moved our way some since the 70's. McBride ran a few years back against Jack LaBelle. This is the first time Childs faced a dem, although he beat Jack LaBelle which shows a lot of strength in his own right.
Conway Twp Treasurer:
GOP - Debbie Grubb (R-Conway Twp)
Dem - None that I know of. (Called Clerk's office earlier today)
Conway's heavily independent but conservative.
When I say "Safe R", it means Safe R barring a disaster. It doesn't not mean that we should get arrogant and do nothing but have a name out on the ballot. That's an easy way to lose. We have the facts on our side. We have a good track record in this county. We don't want to turn into Wayne County.
When state Sen. Joe Hune stepped off the plane from a European vacation,
he did not scramble for the phones to consult with his campaign team.
Instead he immediately went to the side of a rare male albino
two-humped camel that was born while he was gone and was struggling to
stay alive.
That was a clear indication this guy was not running for
Congress, although having a camel raiser in the U.S. House with
Michigan’s former reindeer herder Congressman would have made headlines.
I've known Joe Hune since he ran for the then brand new 47th district back in 2002. At 22, he won a race he had no business (on paper) winning by taking his farm work ethic and strong organization, and applying it to the campaign. It was a grassroots farmer and Fowlerville based victory.
I wasn't sure he was going to run or not. I've heard rumors of both, by good sources. The official word until the news came out was that there was no decision and that the rest of speculation.
It's well known that Joe's not a DC guy, which is why I think he would have done a great job there. He would have given DC a dose of much needed Fowlerville common sense, particularly on spending. Joe treats our tax money and our company time like he treats his own time. He doesn't like to waste it. As a constituent, I hoped he'd run. I also respect his decision to stay where he is. It wouldn't be me paying the price of the job in DC.
It would be a real high price if he ran. While I think he would have won the primary (no offense to Mike Bishop, Tom McMillin and Bryan Barnett, but they are all from the same area and a geographic mismatch to Hune) and the general (Hune wins independents and keeps the base), it still was not a sure thing. He's also be running every two years. While nothing is an absolute sure thing, Joe's the winner barring a disaster in the 22nd for re-election. His opponent will not catch him sleeping on the election. He'd give up a four year term if ran for Congress. He and his wife would leave home and the farm to go to DC if he won. DC politics is a nasty business and getting nastier.
Best of luck to Joe in re-election. As far as the 8th District goes, I'm keeping my powder dry for now and want to hear more from the candidates and refresh my research on their voting records and statements when they weren't dealing with a re-election. I also want to see who places an emphasis on Livingston County. While we're the 3rd most GOP county in the state by percentage, and 2nd among counties over 100,000 people, we're sometimes still viewed as a shadow of our surrounding counties. With three Rochester area candidates, we could very well choose the winner.
State Sen. Joe Hune, R-Hamburg Township, will not seek the GOP
nomination to succeed U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Howell, in Congress, Hune
announced today.
Hune said he will instead focus on his reelection bid in the state Senate.
His
announcement follows Monday's news that Rogers is endorsing former
state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop of Rochester for the GOP
nomination for the 8th Congressional District seat, which represents all
of Livingston and Ingham counties, and a portion of Oakland County
In a statement, Hune said he wants to contribute to “strong conservative leadership” in Lansing and spend time with his family.
“Marcia
and I are really touched and overwhelmed by all of the people who have
contacted us about the possibility of running for Congress. We took some
time and thought very carefully about what it meant for us as a family
at this point in our lives,” Hune said in his statement.
“Just
like everyone else, this situation came as a surprise to us. At a time
when we want to grow and enjoy more family time, adopting a
congressional lifestyle just doesn’t make sense,” he added.
The bad news is that my first choice for the Congressional seat is not running. The good news is that I have a very good state senator. No, I'm not saying that to avoid getting spit on by his camels. He does good work. His office does good work. They all put with me when issues come up.
In the 8th District, that leaves State Senator Mike Bishop and Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett. Others may be jumping in. We'll see. The filing deadline is April 22nd, and 1000 VALID signatures are needed, so the window to jump in is extremely narrow.
There's a lot of crap stirring going on out there with this race and a lot of conspiracy theories I'm hearing about. Some of that is being pushed by the dems. That's not a surprise. They want a split party with this primary. Some of it is pushed by those with axes to grind against certain individuals. Some of it is those who want to put strong candidate or potential candidates and their teams against each other to open things up for an alternative.
U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Howell, on Monday endorsed former state Senate
Majority Leader Mike Bishop of Rochester to be his replacement in
Congress next year.
This should be read no more and no less than what it is. Mike Rogers and Mike Bishop served together in Lansing. They are friends. Mike didn't serve with Joe Hune or Bryan Barnett.
“We have two good people running so far,” county GOP Chairman Dan Wholihan said. Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett has announced his candidacy for the party’s nod for the seat.
“If Senator Hune runs, we’ll have a third good person as well,” Wholihan said.
“I’m
biased, being a Livingston County guy, so I’d like to a have a good
candidate out of Livingston County personally, but we have several good
people running and I don’t think any of the two running, or if Senator
Hune runs, would do a bad job,” Wholihan added.
He said he’ll support the party’s nominee regardless if that person is Joe Hune.
I didn't like the phrasing of "regardless if that person is Joe Hune" as it is contradicting sounding. My exact comment I believe was "regardless of who wins." While being a Chair tempers my advocacy to a degree, everybody know who I'm voting for if a certain candidate runs. At the same time, that's not to say that I'd be voting against the other two or whomever else runs. This would be a race between "Good" and "Best." If Bishop or Barnett is the nominee, I'd have no problems voting for them.
I doubt this would factor one way or the other on what Joe Hune decides. Hune is a grass roots candidate who won by knocking on doors of voters. He has the information he needs to make his decision and is discussing that with his family.
But state Sen. Rick Jones, R-Grand Ledge, said he will endorse Hune
if Hune decides to run, regardless of the GOP candidate list.Jones
and Hune served three two-year terms together in the state House before
serving together in the Senate. Jones said Hune has shown leadership on
agricultural and insurance issues and would be a perfect fit in Washington, D.C.
Much like how Bishop and Mike Rogers served together, so do Rick Jones and Joe Hune. It speaks well of candidates when colleagues step up to the plate. I've worked with Joe's office several times going back to 2002. Good work is done there.
Judy Daubenmier, chairwoman of the county Democratic Party, said
Rogers has chosen to “meddle” in the GOP primary for his office.
Daubenmier questioned if Rogers was attempting to eliminate Hune as a
“tea party” alternative to a more mainstream Republican.
She
said Rogers’ endorsement suggests Rogers has little confidence in Hune
despite being a fellow county resident serving with Rogers’ brother,
state Rep. Bill Rogers, R-Genoa Township, in Lansing.
“It
certainly looks like he is trying to hand-pick his successor rather
than let the voters have their say first. It smacks of a bid to push
Hune out of the race before he even has decided whether to get into it,”
Daubenmier said.
“It’s
also surprising that Joe Hune is held in such low regard by a fellow
Livingston County Republican, given that he serves in the county’s
legislative delegation alongside Mike Rogers’ brother,” she added.
That's wishful thinking. There's nothing better the dems want than a split party and a nasty primary.
Wholihan said he doesn’t foresee a “tea party” rift in the GOP
nomination for the seat. He said Bishop demonstrated the fiscal
responsibility “tea party” Republicans demanded while serving in
Lansing.Wholihan
said many “tea party” Republicans supported Bishop over now-state
Attorney General Bill Schuette in Bishop’s 2010 state attorney general
campaign.
The tea party groups like Joe Hune. They split their votes between Mike Bishop and Bill Schuette back in 2010. I don't know how they felt about Bryan Barnett, but anyone who gets 77% of the vote doesn't do it by accident. "Establishment" people like Joe Hune. They split their votes between Mike Bishop and Bill Schuette. Oakland County establishment like Bryan Barnett quite a bit.
There's no coronation here. Mike Rogers has his opinion. I like Mike, but it doesn't affect my opinion one way or another. I'd like to see a candidate go after the spending and not raise taxes. I know for a fact that Joe Hune will do that.
There still may be more candidates. I've heard two or three more Oakland County individuals may run, along with someone who lives just outside the district. Things aren't in stone here.
I got a call from one of the county folks here. He said he was receiving a poll that listed five potential candidates for the 8th District. This was likely paid by the candidate or a "friend of the program" and it listed five names. We both expected it was paid for by someone not yet in doing a poll for a starting point.
Going in alphabetical order
Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett
Mike Bishop
Steve Hantler
Joe Hune.
--------------------------
UPDATED:
The poll was from Murray Communications, a consulting firm that works for Marty Knollenberg. It's a wide open race. Joe Hune hasn't decided. I've heard Hantler is unlikely and he doesn't live in the district. Anuzis hasn't decided.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
TUESDAY, APRIL 1, 2014
CONTACT: MURRAY COMMUNICATIONS: (517) 505-0447
PORTABLE INSIGHTS: (401) 352-4005 x210
COMBAT DATA: (517) 449-7058
BISHOP LEADS HUNE AMONG REPUBLICANS IN RACE TO REPLACE ROGERS
OKEMOS,
MI – Former State Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Rochester)
holds a 22.96% to 17.65% lead over State Senator Joe Hune
(R-Fowlerville) in the race to succeed retiring Congressman Mike Rogers,
according to a survey of Republican primary voters conducted by Murray
Communications-Portable Insights-Combat Data. Nearly half of respondents
were undecided.
In
addition to Bishop and Hune, the following Republicans were included in
the survey: Saul Anuzis (R-Lansing), Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills),
and Steve Hantler (R-West Bloomfield).
The
automated survey of 884 likely 8th District Republican primary voters
was conducted on Monday, March 31 and has a margin of error of 3.29%.
Full results follow:
8th District..............100.00% (884)
Mike Bishop................22.96% (203)
Joe Hune...................17.65% (156)
Bryan Barnett...............5.66% (50)
Saul Anuzis.................3.51% (31)
Steve Hantler...............1.58% (14)
Undecided..................48.64% (430)
“Bishop’s
numbers initial numbers are good, but there may be dark clouds on the
horizon as other Oakland County based candidates ramp up their
campaigns. So far, Hune has Livingston County all to himself and next
door Ingham County is wide open,” said Mike Murray of Murray
Communications.
“Aside
from the loud ticking coming from nominating petition clock for the
potential candidates, this primary is still in it primordial stage.
Geographically, Hune’s centralized location should give him vote
momentum opportunities in both directions fairly quickly if he gets in
the game,” said Brian Bellgowan of Combat Data.
“The
field is still pretty fluid and voters are up for grabs,” said
Christopher Mark of Portable Insights. “Nearly half of voters are not
settled on any of these candidates, meaning that any one of them -- or
perhaps someone else -- has a chance to break out, but they’re going to
have to act quickly.”
The
poll is a collaborative effort between Murray Communications, a
Michigan-based Republican political consulting firm; Portable Insights, a
Rhode Island-based opinion research company; and Combat Data Inc., a
Michigan-based political data and voter outreach services company.
Murray
Communications can be contacted by phone at (517) 505-0447, by email at
contact@murrcomm.net or on the Internet at
www.MurrayCommunications.com. Facebook: facebook.com/murrcomm Twitter:
@MurrComm.
Portable
Insights can be contacted at (401) 352-4005 x210, or by email at
chris@portableinsights.com or on the Internet at
www.PortableInsights.com. Facebook: facebook.com/portableinsights
Twitter: @VoteMiner.
Combat Data can be contacted at (517) 449-7058, by email at listdp@comcast.net, or on the Internet at www.CombatData.com.
Facebook: facebook.com/combatdatainc
None of the companies currently represent any of the individuals named in the poll.
This
is an automated survey of Republican Primary voters. This one-question
survey will take approximately 90 seconds to complete.
Current
Republican Congressman Mike Rogers announced last week that he would
not seek reelection. There are five Republicans who’ve either announced
they’re running, or expressed an interest in running.
In August, Republicans will vote in a Primary Election to select their party’s choice for the November General Election.
I
will now read you the names of these five Republicans -- twice. I will
then ask you to use the touch-tone on your phone to select the
individual you prefer THE MOST. If you are undecided, you will have the
option to indicate that.
Please listen carefully, the Republicans are:
Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett
Mike Bishop
Joe Hune
Steve Hantler
Those Republicans, again, in a different order, are:
Joe Hune
Mike Bishop
Steve Hantler
Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett
If
you would like to hear those names again, please press ZERO now. If
you’re ready to choose, please wait for prompt, as the names will be
read, again, in a different order.
Q1 If your choice is Steve Hantler, please press ONE NOW
If your choice is Bryan Barnett, please press TWO NOW
If your choice is Joe Hune, please press THREE NOW
If your choice is Mike Bishop, please press FOUR NOW
If your choice is Saul Anuzis, please press FIVE NOW
If you’re Undecided, please press SIX NOW.
This
concludes our survey. This survey was paid for by Murray
Communications, Portable Insights and Combat Data, and is not authorized
by any candidate or candidate committee.
Update 3-31-14 - Former State Senator Mike Bishop and Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett, both from the Rochester area are running.
A new era is beginning here in the 8th District.
(Full disclosure, I did some work for Sen. Joe Hune in his 2010 campaign)
With Mike Rogers retiring, things have significantly changed here. The 8th District leans Republican, but isn't a safe district with Mike Rogers retiring. It went for the dems at the top of the ticket in 2006 and 2008, and went for the Republicans in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, and 2012. I went over the presidential numbers in depth here and explored an open possibility here. I'm not going to rehash the presidential numbers much or the top of the ticket numbers much here. In an Republican year, we win. In a neutral year, we probably win, but candidate quality will matter more. In a bad year, we better have a damn good candidate. The top of the ticket will have its own variables. We have to control what we control, and that means voting for a good candidate in this August primary, whomever it may be.
There's a lot of rumors going on about candidates who are and who aren't running. I'm not going to do a lot of speculation except to say that oftentimes the national reporters don't have any idea what they are talking about. If the person doesn't live in the district or have ties to the district, the person won't be a serious candidate more than likely. Especially if the districts don't all run together (like the Bloomfield area in the 9th, 11th, and 14th). The 8th isn't like that outside of a small part of Rochester Hills which is in both districts (mostly in the 8th).
Politics 1 mentions Saul Anuzis, Bryan Barnett, Mike Bishop, Mike Bouchard, Craig DeRoche, Gail Haines, Joe Hune, Rick Jones, Jim Marleau, Tom McMillin, Barb Byrum, Sam Singh, and Peter Spadafore as possible candidates (In addition to the two announced dems Ken Darga and Susan Grettenberger). There was very little research done there and by the national press. Mike Bouchard and Craig DeRoche both live in the 11th District nowhere near the 8th. Birmingham and Novi. Jones is in Grand Ledge, in the 7th District. He's never represented any of the 8th. Gail Haines is in the 11th, and only represents a small part of the 8th. I don't expect many of those to be serious contenders. This is not a carpetbagging friendly area, especially away from Oakland County. One better have some good ties here at minimum. Bill Rogers has announced he's not running. Joe Hune and Mike Bishop are significant names who would be contenders if they choose to run. They are considering. Saul Anuzis who lives in Lansing (although the Eaton County side - barely) announced he is considering. Bryan Barnett (Rochester Hills Mayor) has apparently announced he's running. If Brad Jacobsen, Tom McMillin, or Jim Marleau run, they certainly can't be counted out. I have not heard interest expressed by them, but this is a very recent announcement. On the dem side, I expect Barb Byrum to run. The other names I've heard there are sacrificial lamb candidates. Byrum would be a tougher candidate.
The filing deadline is April 22nd. This is significant. I'll be real blunt here. There's a petition requirement of 1000 valid signatures. That means 1500-2000 are more likely needed, and not "McCotter campaign staff" style. That means there isn't much time. Three weeks. Whoever jumps in now has to have serious organization, or the ability to raise enough money to hire petition circulators. Anyone that doesn't have instant organization to do that is wasting their time, their money, staff time, and volunteer time. I don't want to lose this seat to a democrat. The easiest way to see that happen is for there to be poor organization on the R side and a bad candidate due to that.
So who would be the strongest candidates?
That's a question where we would need an educated guess. I'm going to look at four potential Republican candidates for now in alphabetical order as these the names I've heard the most. Saul Anuzis. Bryan Barnett. Mike Bishop. Joe Hune. On the dem side, the only potential with any chance that I can see at this point is Barb Byrum. (Gretchen Whitmer isn't running).
I'll start with the democrat, Byrum. Barb Byrum won three races in a borderline swing/slightly democrat district in Ingham County, along with the Ingham County Clerk position. Byrum's old district, the old HD-67 covers rural Ingham County, Mason, Delhi Township, and Southwest Lansing. I believe she's in the Mason or Leslie area. Dianne represented Onondaga. The Byrums have some strength in rural Ingham County, although their real base in the portion of Lansing in their district. This is the least democrat state rep district in the county, as the other two districts are all of Lansing or overwhelmingly East Lansing/Meridian Twp based.
Unfortunately, most of the analysis is through wave elections (06, 08, 10) so it's of limited use. However, Byrum probably has to match 2006 Granholm or 2008 Obama numbers to have a chance to win.
Overall, she'll need to get numbers similar to Obama/Granholm in 06/08 if she's going to have a good shot winning. That means about 57% or better in the district. Mike Rogers always won this state rep district. Byrum got about 58-59% in 2006 and 63% in 2008. 2010 was a scare for her, but she survived. 2012 was countywide and she got 68%. Lansing turnout will be the biggest key for her.
Saul Anuzis has never held elected office. He's been a Legislative Chief of Staff, a consultant, a State Party Chair, and an RNC Committeeman. He's been very active behind the scenes, but this would be new territory.
I don't know much about Bryan Barnett. He won his Rochester Hills mayoral election easily in 2011. 77.29% to 22.46%. He won in 2007 with a similar margin. Most of Rochester Hills is in the 8th District, but only as of the 2012 election. It's a big jump from mayor to Congress, even in a city of 71,000. It's slightly smaller than a state rep district.
Mike Bishop is former Senate Majority Leader and State Rep. He ran for St Senate in 2002 and 2006 winning easily. He ran for AG at a convention and lost a tight race to Bill Schuette. No shame there. He lost to Jessica Cooper in the 2012 election for prosecutor by 5%. Straight tickets in places like Pontiac and Southfield did him in. The area he lost was not in the 8th district.
Bishop had mostly wave elections as well during his career, although 2000 and 2002 weren't waves. In 1998, John Engler was an incumbent and had Geoffrey Fieger as an opponent. Todd Akin post gaffe would win against Fieger. Bishop ran 5% behind Engler, but got 70%+ in his district.
In 2000, he ran 8-10% better than Bush across the board. Nothing overlapped with Mike Rogers as none of his district at the time was in the 8th. Bishop was in the 1990's incarnation of HD-45 which was Addison Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, Oakland Twp, Rochester, and part of Rochester Hills. It was a blood red district and still is today. North Oakland outside of Holly Twp is as Republican as Livingston County (Rochester area less R, but still safe)
In 2002, Bishop ran for State Senate and won. SD-15 at the time has much of the North Oakland part now in the 8th at the same period. The district has Addison Twp, Clarkston, Independence Twp, Oakland Twp (now 8th, wasn't then), Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, Rochester (now 8th, wasn't then) , and Rochester Hills (most now in 8th, wasn't then). It also had Auburn Hills, Keego Harbor, Lake Angelus, Pontiac, and Sylvan Lake which is in other districts. He ran ahead of Posthumus across the board, by major numbers outside of Pontiac. He ran slightly ahead of Mike Rogers (1-2%) in most of the district outside of Independence and Clarkston which was within 1%.
2006 was a bad year, but Bishop won easily, albeit with 56% instead of 62%. He ran well ahead of DeVos outside of Pontiac and Keego Harbor, and by 10%+ better in his home turf of Rochester/Rochester Hills. Like 2002, he ran slightly ahead of Rogers outside of Independence/Clarkston (less than 1% variation). Pontiac is a straight ticket graveyard without base areas outvoting it. Auburn Hills is tough territory. They don't matter in the 8th.
2012 was a little different. Bishop ran slightly ahead of Romney in the 8th District part of the district when going for prosecutor. He ran behind Rogers across the board outside of Rochester and Clarkston. That's due to Rogers facing Lance Enderle who was a sacrificial lamb. Bishop challenged a strong incumbent in Jessica Cooper (was a judge before prosecutor). Not surprising, Bishop was much stronger in the Eastern part of Oakland County in the 8th district. Here's a map, because it has probably the best comparisons. The red is where he ran ahead of Romney by over 2%. The "dark salmon" is where he ran ahead by 0-2%. The light blue is where he ran behind by 0-2%. He didn't run behind Romney anywhere by a significant margin.
This is the only time where Bishop was held to what is slightly better than "generic R." Bishop got 59.92% in North Oakland compared to Romney's 58.35% (and Rogers 63.42%). Even so, he's still quite strong in Orion Twp, Oakland Twp, and the Rochester area. That's his base.
The last potential candidate here is Joe Hune. In 2002, Livingston County went big for Republicans overall. Rogers was at his height in popularity, and also had a D- opponent. Hune ran well behind Rogers in his first race - except in his home base of Handy Twp where he ran ahead of even Mike Rogers breaking 80% there. Hune running 7% behind Mike Rogers isn't to be confused that with weakness. Hune won the general election with 68% to Rogers 75%. Both ran ahead of the top of the ticket by significant margins. Posthumus got 61.28%, Hune 68.85%, and Rogers 75.85%.
In 2004, Hune has his best year by percentage. He ran 9% ahead of Bush, and even ahead of Rogers, although by less than 1%. He ran strongly ahead of Bush everyone. The red is where he ran ahead of Rogers by 2%. The black is where he ran ahead by 5% or more. The "dark salmon" is where he ran ahead 0-2%. Light blue is where Rogers ran 0-2% ahead. The blue is where Rogers ran 3-5%+ Keep in mind that in his weaker areas, he still ran well ahead of Bush - and Bush won the district with 61.85%. Hune and Rogers broke 70%.
2006 was a rougher year. DeVos was held to 55.82% in the district. Hune had 61.56% and Rogers 62.15%. He didn't run ahead of Rogers this time, but here's the map with the same codes.
2010 was a wave year and Rogers and Snyder both got over 71%. Hune ran behind them a bit for an open seat (ran almost even in his base area), but still got almost 68%. Rogers is originally from Brighton Township, so that factors into the difference with Rogers. This is the first time Hune represented that part of the county.
Again, the thing to remember is that Mike Rogers is generally the gold standard of Republican electoral performance in this district. In all except one race, Mike Bishop ran well ahead of the ticket. In all races, except the 2010 wave, Joe Hune ran well ahead of the ticket. Neither of these two would drag down the ticket. This is not measuring "weakness", but extra strength needed to go into a congressional run in case of trouble against a democrat.
If Hune, Bishop, Anuzis, Barnett, or someone else gets numbers ahead of the top of the ticket in a neutral or wave election, we'll be fine. If we have someone that underperforms, we're in trouble.
The announcement about Rogers not running is two days ago, so there's a lot of behind the scenes rumors, measuring, jockeying, and organization going on right now. There is not a major window with the quick filing deadline. Expect some decisions to be made fast, and for a lot of people to get behind a candidate (or two) quickly so this person gets on the ballot.
Let's hope for a good clean primary with minimum mudslinging, and hope the best candidate wins.
Rogers Will Not Seek Re-Election; Heading to Radio
3/28/14 - Seven-term Republican Congressman Mike Rogers
of Howell says he won't seek re-election. The chairman of the House
Intelligence Committee announced his plans this morning and says he'll
serve out the end of his term and plans to start a national radio
program. In a statement released by his office today, Rogers said, “It
has been an honor to serve the people of Michigan's eighth congressional
district over the last 14 years. We have accomplished so much together,
and I am most proud of our work to turn the House Intelligence
Committee into a true legislative and oversight body. But I have always
believed in our founder's idea of a citizen legislature. I had a career
before politics and always planned to have one after. The genius of our
institutions is they are not dependent on the individual temporary
occupants privileged to serve. That is why I have decided not to seek
re-election to Congress in 2014. As I close this chapter in my life, I
am excited to begin a new one that allows me to continue serving as a
voice for American exceptionalism and support a strong nation security
policy agenda.” Rogers said he’ll start in January as a nationally
syndicated radio show host at Cumulus Radio. The 50-year-old Rogers was
elected to Michigan's 8th District in 2000, has been a frequent critic
of the Obama Administration during many appearances on Sunday morning
talk shows, although he was briefly floated as a potential CIA director
nominee following Obama’s 2012 reelection victory. Rogers has also
formed a good relationship with Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger of
Maryland, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee. The pair have
been staunch defenders of the controversial NSA surveillance programs
disclosed by former contractor Edward Snowden. But Rogers and
Ruppersberger also recently offered legislation ending NSA bulk
collection program for phone calls and other agency reforms. The
youngest of five sons, Rogers graduated from Adrian College in 1985,
served as an officer in U.S. Army and then became an FBI agent before
winning a seat in the Michigan Senate in 1995, rising to majority floor
leader in 1999. He ran for the first of his seven terms in Congress the
following year. (JK)
We got two major primaries here on both sides, so this is going to be interesting. Joe Hune running for State Senate eliminated a chance of my next congressman being from my county. The Rochester area will have our nominee. Barnett is the Rochester Hills Mayor and has a lot of Oakland County establishment support. Mike Bishop has Mike Rogers support and opened up an office in Livingston County. Tom McMillin has a lot of tea party and libertarian support.While Oakland will have our next nominee, the road to run runs through Livingston County.
On the dem side, Schertzing was recruited by the dem establishment. They wanted Whitmer or Byrum, but both declined. The other three candidates for them are sacrificial lambs.
Incumbent – Open with Mike Rogers retirement
Years in office as of 2014 election – 14
Challengers – Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills) Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing)
2012:
Mike Rogers – 202217 – 58.60%
Lance Enderle– 128657
– 37.29%
73560 vote difference
Romney – 183240 votes – 51.10%
Obama – 171684 votes – 47.87%
11556 vote difference.
2008: (Approx)
McCain – 176239 votes – 46.38%
Obama – 197572 votes – 51.97%
-21243 vote difference
2004: (approx)
Bush – 195830 votes – 54.28%
Kerry –161383 votes – 44.73%
34447 vote difference
Note- Rochester
Hills renamed precincts between 08 and 12 so I’m estimating 04 and 08.
This district is a swing district that is a battle of the
strongholds. It combines the 4th most democrat county in the state
with the 3rd or 4th most republican county in the state
and some of the most republican part of Oakland County.
The keys here are to win your areas big and reduce the margins in the other
base. It’s a Captain Obvious statement, but it is easier said than done. Base
problems here can destroy your chances, as can alienating the swing voters.
Mike Rogers does a good job at striking that balance. He’s
actually won Ingham County in the past, even once winning Lansing itself. He also
runs ahead of everyone in Livingston
County.
For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the
Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7
70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green
2012:
2008:
2004:
Ingham County is usually the 4th most democrat
county in the state behind Genesee, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties in that
order. Kerry won it with 57.78% and by 22143 votes. Obama in 08 with 65.86% and
47511 votes, and Obama in 2012 with 63.43% and 35541 votes.In 2004, Ingham was 36.88% of the district
vote. In 08, it was 37.54% of the vote. In 2012, it was 35.54% of the vote. Key base areas for the dems here are Lansing,
Lansing Township, East Lansing, and Meridian Township (Okemos and Haslett) Lansing
and Meridian Township alone make up about ½ of the county voters. Lansing is a
mix of UAW, government related workers, minorities, and college students (MSU,
Cooley, LCC). Lansing Township has historically been more auto-related in one
part, and MSU related on the other. East Lansing is MSU and also government
workers commuting to Lansing. It is usually the most democrat part of the
district, although Lansing was this election. Meridian Township to the east of
East Lansing is where a lot of MSU professors life, as do some students. The
vote deficits we had to make up with those four places alone are as follows - 35839
in 2012, 45528 in 2008, and 27047 in 2004. That’s not easy to do.
There’s four swing areas in this county that are key. Delhi
Twp (Holt), Mason, Leslie, and Williamston.They are all areas with a lot of Lansing commuters and can be won by
either side. Bush won them all in 04. Obama won them all twice.In an open seat for this district – if the R’s
win all of them, this district is safe. If all of them are lost, it’s going to
be a nervous night. The Southern and Eastern outer portions of the county often
lean R, but not always. The Byrums are from Onondaga, own a store in
Stockbridge, and run ahead of the ticket. That area is independent, and a bad
showing there (like 08) makes things very scary district wide. If we keep the dems under 60%, we have the
district. If we keep them under 57%, we havegood chance winning statewide.
East of there is my home. Livingston County.This county is highly educated, strongly conservative,
pro-business, and is distrustful of big city politics. Being an hour or less
from Detroit, Flint, Lansing, or Ann Arbor, that’s to be expected. By
OaklandCounty or Ann Arbor standards,
this is “past civilization.” We like it that way. There’s a strong 2nd
Amendment , tea party, libertarian, and pro-life movement here, but there are
also more pro-choice republicans than one would expect in a county where RTL is
very strong. This area wasn’t as social conservative in the 90’s. The MEA is
also fairly strong here considering how Republican this county is. The magic
number for us percentage wise is about 63%. If we break 63%, we have a good
chance of winning statewide. If we’re under 60%, it’s going to be bad. Mike
Rogers always runs extremely well here. In bad years or bad candidates, R’s are
sometimes held to 53-55%. McCain was held to 55.79%. In 04, Livingston’s 62.90%
and 24969 vote spread was able to counterpunch Ingham County on its own. 08 was
a whooping. McCain barely made a dent in Ingham’s vote spread. 2012 was a
recovery of sorts as Romney set the highwater mark for raw votes and got the percentage
up to 61.10%. That’s better than Bush 2000 and McCain. That still isn’t good
enough. It made a good dent in Ingham’s spread, but not enough. There’s no real
dem base here enough to cause a threat without special circumstances. Candidate
quality is always key and can change things, but generic R always smashes
generic D here 60-40 in normal November elections. Dems have some strength in
nonpartisan races here, and are strong in small pockets of the county (a
handful of precincts they sometime win). Usually it’s either places with
apartment complexes and/or where a lot of teachers live. The MEA is the base of
the dems in these parts. In our worst years, Brighton, Howell, Putnam Twp,
Unadilla Twp, and maybe Hamburg Twp can flip narrowly. Usually they are around
the 54/55% R range. In good years, those same areas can go for close to 60% R Most of the county is blood red, less so in
the incorporated cities, and less so near the Washtenaw County line. Down the
road, who knows? Nobody saw Oakland County going for democrats back in 1984.
Livingston County is still growing, and it is our job to educate new residents why
this is a great place to live, and part of that is due to our longtime local
conservative and republican leadership. Do we have threats on the horizon?
Absolutely. Novi’s six miles from the county line and used to be as Republican
as we are. Now it’s 50/50. I’m not taking anything for granted.
East of here is Oakland County. While Oakland is purplish to
blue overall, this part of Oakland County is not much different than Livingston
County in its voting behavior. Holly is competitive, but that’s about it. A lot
of these areas vote about 60%R. Rochester and Rochester Hills are causes for
concern with migration however. Independence Township is blood red and a base
area. Most of this area is base republican and some of it is even rural which
isn’t what one expects in Oakland County. This is much of the R base in Oakland
County. This is mainstream conservative country, much like Livingston County.
Overall this district is largely heavily blue or red. There
isn’t a lot of in-between. Mike Rogers wins big because he keeps his base,
racks up large margins in Livingston and North Oakland, and does respectable
(sometimes winning) in Ingham County. He even won Meridian Township last
election, along with all the swing areas like Delhi Twp and Mason. That’s the
blueprint for making this a “safe” district for an incumbent. Is there a way
the dems can take this district? Yes. Holding the R’s to 55% in Livingston and
54% in Oakland, while racking up big margins in Ingham County as in 2008 will
do that. Could that happen again? Yes, with poor candidate quality. That’s our
challenge if Mike Rogers runs for Senate.
