Bart Stupak has a primary challenger in Connie Saltonstall (MI-01)

Some good news in MI-01 for republicans. Bart Stupak has a primary race with Connie Saltonstall. With that, the GOP needs to recruit a good candidate for that area, preferably a yooper. Tom Casperson is planning to run for State Senate, but maybe he should give Congress another go with this opening. If not Casperson, perhaps Scott Shackleton.

The pro-abortion left is pumping money into this race. The rich leftists at Huffington Post are going crazy and giving their money to this race. Great. It's win, win for the GOP. Go Connie! For a whole difference reason.

I don't know much about Saltonstall except that she has some election history, and is mad at Stupak for his abortion stance. She was a county commissioner representing the City of Charlevoix. She also ran for the 105th State Rep against incumbent Kevin Elsenheimer. Elsenheimer won overall with 60%. Saltonstall won the City of Charlevoix, Chandler Township, and lost the rest of her home county. She did show strength in Forest Township in Cheboygan County with a tie there, but Elsenheimer won his district easily. It is a Republican leaning district unless one's a blunder machine (like illegally spending county taxpayers money on campaign mailings....) The 105th is possibly the most Republican district that resides in the 1st. Saltonstall did better than most democrats there, but was that due to her campaign, or 08 being a bad year for Republicans.

Apples and Oranges. Why?

1. Different electorate - primary. Right to Life loves Stupak. However, a lot of them lean more republican than they do democrat. Which primary will the pro-life activists vote in? In the August primary, one may vote a Republican ballot or a Democrat ballot. The Republicans and Democrats will both have a gubernatorial primary statewide, and the abortion issue will come up in both parties as Rick Snyder donated tens of thousands to the ballot proposal supporting embryonic research. Andy Dillon has pro-life leanings and Virg Bernero is pro-abortion. Most of the local offices on the yooper side of the bridge lean democrat outside of Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. The troll side is more locally competitive with democrat leaning Alpena, Bay, Ogemaw, and Arenac counties and Republican leaning Otsego, Emmet, and Antrim Counties. The gubernatorial race makes this interesting. Primary voters are more partisan, and will vote for their guys before crossvotes. I've only monkeyed around in one democrat primary (Against Granholm in 02) because usually I have races of my own to vote in

2. Money. Saltonstall has pro-abortion money flying in from the left-roots. She's also from one of the more wealthy areas of the district and can raise more money than most challengers. This will give Stupak some headaches, no matter what the real threat is.

I think this is Stupak's race to lose. He's very popular locally and runs ahead of everybody, especially in the UP. The UP, as well as the sunrise side of the Northern Lower Penninsula, have a lot of social conservative democrats. Pro-life. Pro-gun. Pro-union. The Sheltrown brothers in the SE part of the district. Andy Neumann is pro-gun. The yooper state reps are pro-gun and outside of Prusi in Marquette, I believe they are pro-life. Jim Barcia in Bay City represented part of this area before and he's pro-gun and pro-life.

A large number of the democrats are labor. Corrections officers, retired UAW, Bay City commuters, Alpena, DNR officers, and state workers, along with mining traditions. These aren't your Ann Arbor, California, or even Traverse City democrats. Saltonstall will have to sell to those people, and do so with a Charlevoix address. If I'm running for office in this district, there are four addresses I do not want to be identified with. Charlevoix, Petoskey, Torch Lake, and Harbor Springs. All of them have reputations as wealthy areas with vacation homes. It's not just a yooper vs troll thing, it's inland vs coast. Saltonstall is a native of Charlevoix, so it won't cut against her as much as it would a transplant, but how will that play in the more working class democrat strongholds there like Skidway Lake, Rogers City, Alpena, Standish, and Pinconning?

My money is on Stupak no matter how much money is spent. That said, as a Republican, I won't Saltonstall to win the primary because she will be a much easier general election opponent than Stupak.

Several Updates - Deer troubles, Recount in danger, abortionist charged, Target Counties

It's a busy week, so I'll condense all of this into one post.

First off, a real scumbag got charged in this. From the Detroit News:

A 12-count warrant has been issued against a Lathrup Village abortion clinic accused of improperly disposing of medical records, according to Southfield's 46th District Court.

The clinic, WomanCare, came under police and state investigation last spring when an anti-abortion group reported finding medical records and biomedical waste in Dumpsters outside the facility on Southfield Road. Authorities soon came and hauled away blood-soaked gauze and surgical instruments that were in the trash.

"It's really troubling for so many reasons," said Deborah Carley, chief deputy prosecuting attorney for Oakland County.

Secondly, we have bad news from Kent County. Chronic Wasting Disease is found at a deer breeding facility. Hopefully, it doesn't hit the wild population. From the DNR

LANSING - The Michigan departments of Agriculture (MDA) and Natural Resources (DNR) today confirmed the state's first case of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in a three-year old white-tailed deer from a privately owned cervid (POC) facility in Kent County.

The state has quarantined all POC facilities, prohibiting the movement of all - dead or alive - privately-owned deer, elk or moose. Officials do not yet know how the deer may have contracted the disease. To date, there is no evidence that CWD presents a risk to humans.

DNR and MDA staff are currently reviewing records from the Kent County facility and five others to trace deer that have been purchased, sold or moved by the owners in the last five years for deer and the last seven years for elk. Any deer that may have come in contact with the CWD-positive herd have been traced to their current location and those facilities have been quarantined.

"Michigan's veterinarians and wildlife experts have been working throughout the weekend to complete their investigation," said Don Koivisto, MDA director. "We take this disease very seriously, and are using every resource available to us to implement response measures and stop the spread of this disease."

CWD is a fatal neurological disease that affects deer, elk and moose. Most cases of the disease have been in western states, but in the past several years, it has spread to some midwestern and eastern states. Infected animals display abnormal behaviors, progressive weight loss and physical debilitation.

Current evidence suggests that the disease is transmitted through infectious, self-multiplying proteins (prions) contained in saliva and other fluids of infected animals. Susceptible animals can acquire CWD by direct exposure to these fluids or also from contaminated environments. Once contaminated, research suggests that soil can remain a source of infection for long periods of time, making CWD a particularly difficult disease to eradicate.

Michigan's First Case of Chronic Wasting Disease Detected at Kent County Deer Breeding Facility: "Currently, one of our top concerns is to confirm that the disease is not in free-ranging deer," said DNR Director Rebecca Humphries. "We are asking hunters this fall to assist us by visiting check stations to allow us to take biological samples from the deer they harvest, so we can perform adequate surveillance of the free-ranging white-tailed deer herd in the area."

Deer hunters this fall who take deer from Tyrone, Solon, Nelson, Sparta, Algoma, Courtland, Alpine, Plainfield, and Cannon townships will be required to bring their deer to a DNR check station. Deer taken in these townships are subject to mandatory deer check.

The DNR is also asking hunters who are participating in the private land five-day antlerless hunt in September in other parts of Kent County to visit DNR check stations in Kent County so further biological samples can be taken from free-ranging deer for testing. The DNR is in the process of finding additional locations for check stations in Kent County to make it more convenient for hunters.

The deer that tested positive at the Kent County facility was a doe that had been recently culled by the owner of the facility. Michigan law requires sick deer or culled deer on a POC facility be tested for disease. The samples from the Kent County deer tested "suspect positive" last week at Michigan State University Diagnostic Center for Population and Animal Health, and were sent to the National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Ames, Iowa last Thursday for confirmatory testing. The positive results of those tests were communicated to the state of Michigan today.

Audits of the facility by the DNR in 2004 and 2007 showed no escapes of animals from the Kent County facility were reported by the owner. Also, there were no violations of regulations recorded during the audits.

Since 2002, the DNR has tested 248 wild deer in Kent County for CWD. In summer 2005, a number of those deer had displayed neurological symptoms similar to CWD; however, after testing it was determined the deer had contracted Eastern Equine Encephalitis.

More information on CWD is available on Michigan's Emerging Diseases Web site at www.michigan.gov/chronicwastingdisease.

Macomb and Oakland Counties are going to be big targets for both campaigns this fall. A Democrat polling firm has the county race at 46-39 McCain. That's early to tell, but if McCain can take Macomb by 5-10%, he's in good shape. Oakland is also a major battle. and the Detroit News covers that. I'll have more on both counties later on. I think Obama's personality, lack of experience, and extreme radical views will not play well in Macomb County. Oakland will be a more split area I think. It's one of the most misunderstood counties in the state.

Oakland County is a geographically split county that is be divided in to about four sections (to be simplistic).

Southeast - Inkster Rd east to Dequindre, and from about 13-14 mile southward. This is the main Democrat Base. Southfield leads the way with a 30,000 vote cushion for the Democrats. Lathrup Village, Oak Park, and Southfield are the mostly black areas. The rest of it is white social liberals (outside maybe Hazel Park which is also democrat) in Ferndale, Huntington Woods, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak, and Madison Heights.

Pontiac/Auburn Hills/Waterford - Pontiac is the other Democrat base. Auburn Hills leans that way and Waterford is competitive.

Central Oakland/Money area - Overall competitive. The Bloomfields(Not West Bloomfield), Birmingham, Troy, Franklin, Bingham Farms and Rochester areas are mostly Republican leaning, but not overwhelmingly so. West Bloomfield and Farmington Hills lean Democrat.

Outer areas - West of I-275 or about 3 miles north of M-59. On the West, South Lyon, Milford, Highland, Commerce, White Lake. On the North Lake Orion, Oxford, and Clarkston areas. That is the Republican base, and Bush ran up big numbers here (outside Novi) while he struggled in the rest of the county. It is a mix of suburban and semi-rural areas that are mostly residential.

That's a simplistic diagram of Oakland County, but a good starting point if someone really wants to analyze our neighbors.


The Brighton Township Recount I can't see going anywhere. A good source sent me a copy of Geri Harmon's recount request.


Now what's wrong with this picture?
1. It does not mention the office requested for the recount. All 10 precincts for what office?
2. What is the "error?"

Now I've heard a few other things as well that makes me think this won't get off the ground. I want to verify by primary source first (non 2ndhand/3rdhand) however, before I post it here.

Partial Birth Abortion ban in Michigan tossed out by 6th Circuit appeals

I have not read the decision, and don't know if the circuit ruled because of bad precident by SCOTUS, or if they were activist judges on this. 6th Circuit is bound by precident, even if it is bad.

from WLNS

An appeals court has declared Michigan's abortion law unconstitutional. The 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals agreed with a Detroit district judge that Michigan's legal birth definition act places an undue burden on a woman's right to choose an abortion.

US Supreme Court upholds ban on partial birth abortion

This one was closely watched. From Reuters

A closely divided U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld for the first time a nationwide ban on a specific abortion procedure, a ruling critics denounced as undermining 30 years of precedent protecting women's health.

By a 5-4 vote, the high court ruled that the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act that President George W. Bush signed into law in 2003 after its approval by the Republican-led U.S. Congress does not violate a woman's constitutional right to an abortion.

The ruling could open the door to further abortion restrictions and it came in the first full term of Bush's two Supreme Court appointees, signaling a possible new direction on a divisive social issue that could continue long after Bush leaves office.

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The decision by the conservative majority that included both of Bush's appointees marked the first federal ban on an abortion procedure to be upheld since the court's landmark Roe v. Wade ruling in 1973 that women have a basic constitutional right to abortion.

The majority opinion written by Justice Anthony Kennedy rejected the argument the law must be struck down because it imposed an undue burden on a woman's right to abortion, that it was too vague or broad and it failed to provide an exception for abortions to protect the health of a pregnant woman.

"The government has a legitimate and substantial interest in preserving and promoting fetal life," Kennedy wrote in the 39-page opinion. He said the law would reduce the number of late-term abortions.

I haven't read the decision yet and will refrain comment on this, but I will say that Planned Parenthood v Casey (the worst of the them all), Doe v Bolton, and Roe V Wade all need to get overturned.

I do wish that this was simply a state level ban, and not federal however due to 10th Amendment concerns. Abortion issues should be decided at the state level. (And each state should ban it)