L Brooks Patterson, Oakland County, and Detroit

L Brooks Patterson is who he is. There's times he says something that is dead on and other times where I'd give him an earful if I lived in Oakland County. We don't have County Executives here in Livingston County, which I think is a good thing. If I lived in Oakland, I'd vote for L Brooks in that position of County Executive. As a 2nd Amendment guy, I wouldn't want him as my state rep, but he's in the spot he needs to be.


L Brooks made some comments about Detroit again

Patterson also is quoted as saying “Before you go to Detroit, you get your gas out here (Oakland). You don’t, do not, under any circumstances, stop in Detroit at a gas station! That’s just a call for a carjacking.”
The article was written by Paige Williams, whose work has appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post and GQ magazine. She described Patterson giving her “an extended tour of his empire” in a chauffeured minivan this past fall. She interviewed him as they rode along.
In answer to a question as to how Detroit might fix its financial problems, Patterson was quoted as saying: “I made a prediction a long time ago, and it’s come to pass. I said, ‘What we’re gonna do is turn Detroit into an Indian reservation, where we herd all the Indians into the city, build a fence around it, and then throw in the blankets and the corn.’ ”

From WWJ

“Anytime I talk about Detroit, it will not be positive. Therefore, I’m called a Detroit basher,” he said. ”The truth hurts, you know? Tough s***.”

In his defense, his job is to work for Oakland County, not Detroit, and not Wayne County. Oakland County is competing with Detroit, Suburban Wayne County, Macomb County, and to a lesser extent Livingston, Washtenaw, Lapeer, and St Clair Counties. There's a reason why Oakland has its reputation compared to Wayne and even Macomb Counties. Oakland County is at least locally Republican (and when that changes to Democrat, Detroit and Wayne County style government will move north)

Now I wouldn't trade Livingston for Oakland County. Our taxes are lower and there's a more rural atmosphere and culture here. However, if you compare the locally Republican Oakland County compared to Detroit and Wayne County, it's no comparison when it comes to competence.

Wayne County - Democrat. Corrupt. Ficano, McNamara, Granholm, Kwame, Duggan, and company are all from the same machine. High taxes. High crime. Unbalanced budget. Poor services. Incompetence.

Oakland County - Locally Republican for now. They are at a crossroads. If it flips to democrat, Wayne County will move north. If they get their McNamara, then some of these people are going to really miss L Brooks.

As far as Detroit's comeback, as long as they keep voting 97-3 Democrat, it's not going to happen because the people that screwed up will still be in control. An Ed McNamara protege isn't going to fix things. He's just Kwame with a different skin color. Downtown isn't bad, but downtowns, yuppies, hipsters, and lofts don't save cities. It's the neighborhoods that need to be fixed. Until the crime decreases, services are better, taxes are lowered (much higher than Grosse Pointe), schools are better, and insurance costs are lower, the problems are going to be there. Families aren't going to settle there and send their kids to unsafe schools. People will still be voting with their feet to Oakland and Macomb Counties - and hopefully not bring Detroit politics with them.

Latest Michigan Poll - Anybody's game

There's a new poll from Glengarriff Group for the Detroit News and WDIV. It has rather interesting crosstabs.

The polls has this:
Obama - 47.5
Romney - 45

What really caught my attention is this.

This is all about turnout," said pollster Richard Czuba. "If Democrats turn out their voters, they win. If Republicans turn out more, they win. It's a pretty simple equation, as difficult as campaigns are."Romney leads Oakland County by 8.9 percent and Macomb County by 16 percent. Obama is up by 15.7 percent in Wayne County. That number does not include the city of Detroit where Obama owns nearly all votes.

IF, and that's a BIG IF -  IF either the Macomb or Oakland crosstab is accurate, we're in good shape. If BOTH Macomb and Oakland are accurate, (Wayne won't be accurate then) blowout win for Romney. How often do I predict blowouts?  I don't. Personally I think Macomb and Oakland's crosstabs are a little too good to be true, but I don't think Non Detroit Wayne County is a 16 pt deficit either. When Bush won Macomb by 1.5% and lost Oakland by 0.5%, he lost non-Detroit Wayne County by about 10.5%. The crosstabs don't make sense if Obama is supposed to be up by 2-3% I know Wayne outside of Detroit is getting bluer, but Mitt's not underperforming Kerry Downriver if he's up in Macomb 16%. He'll do better than Bush in the GP's and that NW corner of Northville, Plymouth and maybe Canton if he's up 8-9% in Oakland. Those areas are all similar to Novi, less so Canton. I expect Romney to underperform Bush in the airport areas (government unions and demographics) and Redford (Demographics).

An Oakland lead of 8.9% or Macomb lead by 16% is very significant. Here's the 04 and 08 results.

2008	GOP	Dem	Total	GOP%	Dem%	Difference	Diff
Macomb	187663	223784	419216	44.77%	53.38%	-36121	-8.62%
Oakland	276956	372566	659068	42.02%	56.53%	-95610	-14.51%
Detroit	8888	325534	335635	2.65%	96.99%	-316646	-94.34%
Wayne	210964	334551	554691	38.03%	60.31%	-123587	-22.28%
State	2048639	2872579	5001766	40.96%	57.43%	-823940	-16.47%
2004	GOP	Dem	Total	GOP%	Dem%	Difference	Diff
Macomb	202166	196160	402410	50.24%	48.75%	6006	1.49%
Oakland	316633	319387	641977	49.32%	49.75%	-2754	-0.43%
Detroit	19343	305528	325961	5.93%	93.73%	-286185	-87.80%
Wayne	238407	294519	538767	44.25%	54.67%	-56112	-10.41%
State	2313736	2479166	4839227	47.81%	51.23%	-165430	-3.42%

For argument purposes, I'll use the 04 statewide votespreads with 08 Detroit votespread. That means there will be about a 200,000 vote deficit that needs to be made up. 2008 is an aberration. McCain quit, in a wave year and KO'ed the ground game for the GOP while Obama's ground game was at its height. 2010 is an aberration as well. I'm using 08 Detroit numbers because of race.

16pts in Macomb would be about 57-41-2 for Romney. Incredible numbers. That would be about a 64,385 vote spread. It would wipe out about 30% of the estimate without anything else.

8.9% in Oakland would be about  53.9-45-1.1. That would be about a 57,136 vote spread. It would wipe out over 25% of the estimate without anything else.

Keep in mind counties aren't in vacuums. Our own Livingston County closely mirrors Western and Northern Oakland County. It is consistently about 13.5% more Republican than Oakland County as a whole.

Snyder - Oakland - 60.10, Livingston 75.05 +15
McCain - Oakland - 41.94, Livingston 55.64 +13.7
DeVos - Oakland - 44.62, Livingston 57.05 +12.5
Bush 04 - Oakland - 49.32, Livingston 62.79 +13.5
Posthumus - Oakland - 48.30, Livingston 61.86 +13.5
Bush 00 - Oakland - 48.10, Livingston 59.14 +11

That is remarkably consistent. If Oakland is polling at 53.9% Romney, expect Livingston to poll at about 67.4%. The target to win statewide in Livingston County is usually between 63-64%. The spread in Livingston would likely be about 33,000 votes instead of 25,000. That extra 8,000 helps. St Clair and Monroe Counties tend to go in the same direction as Macomb County. Downriver has some similarities to Southern Macomb County. They lean democrat, but by how much? If that Macomb number really is 16%, Obama can kiss at least the southern half of Downriver goodbye, and probably Allen Park and maybe even places like Garden City as well in Wayne County.

Do I think these crosstabs are right? I have a hard time seeing Macomb go +16% for anybody, and +9 in Oakland is tough to believe as well. So is Romney being closer to McCain numbers than Bush numbers in Non-Detroit Wayne County. No way. 10% loss in Wayne County? I can see that with an improvement in Grosse Pointe, Plymouth, Northville and maybe Livonia, along with decreases in Redford, Belleville, Van Buren Twp, and Westland. I can also see 3% wins in Macomb and Oakland more likely. 5% win in either o those places will be good and give us a chance. 9% and 16% will signal a likely blowout IMO.

I'll have to see it to believe the poll crosstabs, but I think it's plausible. We can only control what we can control - but we CAN control what we can control. This will be won or lost with the ground game.  Polls are at best a scientific educated guess. No more and no less. Take it for what it is and not what it isn't (set in stone). 

Republicans and conservatives need to GOTV, work the polls, and control the things we can control.

It's the home stretch for primaries

After a long and busy couple of weeks, it's time to update this blog.

There's a bunch of races going on, many of which aren't receiving the hype. Downticket

Over in the 93rd District, there's a contested primary with four people. I know two of them. Tom Leonard and Mike Trebesh. Trebesh doesn't impress me at all. That goes back from his time on 8th district committee and how he handled the treasury turnover. When your term is up on a committee and you're replaced, be a professional about it and act like a man. I've been on both ends of that in 06 and 08. When I was on the same end Trebesh was because people were concerned about my time commitments (in retrospect understandably so), I turned over the stuff properly, shook hands, and made sure it was a smooth transition. In the other case, I'll just say there's no way I'd ever vote for Trebesh for any office in a primary election. It's nothing to do with conservatism, but temper issues.

Tom Leonard on the other hand is a great guy who I worked with on the 8th District Committee. He's a true conservative, but more importantly, is a true conservative who gets things done and isn't offensive to independents. He won't sell out, nor will he be out-organized and caught looking in that increasingly difficult district. Leonard will win in November if he's the nominee. When Clinton County lead its comeback, Tom Leonard was chair. He'd have my vote if I lived there, easily.

Over in the 30th district covering part of Sterling Heights and Shelby Township, Michael Shallal is making another run for office. I knew Michael from the campaign trail in 2010. He's principled, conservative, and a good guy with high character. He'd have my vote.

Over in the 65th District, Mike Shirkey's primary challenger supported Obama in 2008. Dan Fulara needs to be stomped in the primary for being a RINO supporting the far left and incompetent Peter Principle in Chief, and then claiming to be a Republican.

If I was in the 11th Congressional district, I'd be rewarding the person who actually got out and did the proper work to get on the ballot. Kerry Bentivolio. Some friends of mine aren't going to like hearing this, but the fact that the incumbent is no longer on the ballot doesn't mean that you go out and try and get a somewhat do-over. Back who you want in the primary, but don't try and create a coronation from the party, especially in a near-suicide mission. What are you going to do when Bentivolio more than likely wins the primary? Just as establishment likes to tell the Tea Parties and Paulites to take one for the team when their people lose, it's time for the establishment to take one for the team here if Bentivolio wins.

Locally:

I grew up and first registered to vote in Genoa Township before later moving to Howell and later Green Oak where I currently live. My parents are still there and I still have a lot of close ties there to the point where if I ran for office countywide, it would likely be my best area. After some of the current gamesmanship by the incumbents there, including land use tricks, a wannabe new fake downtown plan at Dorr Road and Grand River, and a wannabe building department, it's time to send the incumbents home. They got too full of themselves. Genoa Township is what it is. It's not going to be the City of "West Brighton" or "East Howell." It shouldn't become that. In fact with Latson Road's development, you don't even need a new fake wannabe downtown at Dorr/Hughes Road. Interestingly, that spot they want for their faux downtown plans is owned by Laurex - aka Todd Smith, trustee on the board.

Kevin Spicher for Supervisor, Linda Rowell, Keli Woodall, and Bill Taylor for trustees. For the forth spot, I'd even vote for Dewey Thomas although I have some concerns there. There's too many yesman on the current board.

I still haven't decided in Green Oak. I'm probably voting for Kilpatrick and Edry, but I have to look into a few things. For County Commission, Jack's got my vote.

In Hamburg, Mike Zeglevski's running again for trustee. The Argus hates him, but I've always worked well with him on county matters. He's get my support if I was about two miles west.

For County Clerk - Margaret Dunleavy gets my vote again. I've dealt with the clerk's office there more times than I can count. They do good work.

For Treasurer - Brian Wutz. Much of the work is tax law related, and Wutz's background is the right fit for the position.

For Sheriff - Bob Bezotte, or to really get down to it, Mike Murphy.

Some of the other decisions I have made (and some I haven't) , but will be keeping quiet.

Michigan 12th District (MI-12) Updated

Update 8-4-2010 - Primary Result

Michigan's 12th District - Congress

Incumbent - Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak or Roseville)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 28
Cook District Numbers - D+12

GOP Candidate - Don Volaric
Dem Candidate - Sander Levin

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 65%
McCain - 33%

2004:
Kerry - 61%
Bush - 39%

2000
Gore - 61%
Bush - 37%

This district was created to stop David Bonior and to help Joe Knollenberg. It did the former and it bought time for the latter. I forgot that three precincts of Royal Oak are in this district, so my numbers in the 9th are a little more democrat than the actual results. The redistricters made sure that Sandy Levin's home and David Bonior's home of Mt Clemens were in the same district. I thought they should have given Royal Oak to Levin, and put either his portion of Sterling Heights, or even give Clinton Twp to Candice Miller.She would have beaten Bonior anyway as long as Lapeer County and Sanilac County was in that district. It is what it is.

The district covers Center Line, Clinton Twp, Eastpointe, Fraser, Lake Twp, City of Mt. Clemens, City of Roseville, St Clair Shores, Part of the city of Sterling Heights, and the City of Warren in Macomb County. It covers Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Madison Heights, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, two precincts in the City of Royal Oak, Royal Oak Township, and the City of Southfield in Oakland County.

It is a strongly democrat district, and has been since the 1980's. It was more competitive in the 1990's when it had Troy in the district. I believe this was Jim Blanchard's old district before he was governor. It was originally more of an Oakland County based district, and it is now based in Macomb County. Levin faced a primary when Bill Callahan was termed out of his St Clair Shores district, and is facing a much tougher primary from Roseville's termed out state senator Mickey Switalski. Levin is 78, and while he's not the oldest congressman in Michigan, (Dingell, Conyers, Kildee are all older), it becomes an issue in campaigns.The old 12th had all of Sterling Heights and Warren, with the rest of the district in Oakland County. This district has less of Oakland County (although it added Southfield) and more of Macomb. This district goes further east to get Bonior's top areas. Both Switalski and Callahan came from Bonior Country. The Oakland Democrats (less pro-union, more feminist, more culturally leftist) and Macomb Democrats (more centrist on social issues, very pro-union) sometimes can clash, although Levin, much like his brother, have been able to avoid that to a degree.

It would take a miracle for Republicans to win this district. Southfield is one of the most democrat cities in the state. Oak Park and Lathrup Village go the same way as Southfield with their black populations. Royal Oak Twp is an extension of Detroit. Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, and Huntington Woods are Ann Arbor Oakland. In Macomb, Warren, Eastpointe, and Roseville are all UAW strongholds. Mt Clemens is usually the most democrat part of Macomb County. St Clair Shores leans slightly democrat, but is winnable for the GOP. A right populist could make inroads into Macomb, but would get crushed in Oakland. A social liberal non populist could make inroads into the white parts of Oakland, and would get crushed in Macomb. All Republicans get crushed in Southfield.

Here's the 2008 results for Levin.

2008 Elections	Copple	S. Levin	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Macomb County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	911	2,714	194	3,819	-1803	23.85%	71.07%	-47.21%
Clinton Twp	15,104	29,875	1956	46,935	-14771	32.18%	63.65%	-31.47%
Eastpointe	3,073	11,750	717	15,540	-8677	19.77%	75.61%	-55.84%
Fraser	2,466	4,651	324	7,441	-2185	33.14%	62.51%	-29.36%
Lake Twp	20	16	2	38	4	52.63%	42.11%	10.53%
Mount Clemens	1,666	5,322	371	7,359	-3656	22.64%	72.32%	-49.68%
Roseville	4,805	14,925	1080	20,810	-10120	23.09%	71.72%	-48.63%
St Clair Shores	10,953	20,851	1570	33,374	-9898	32.82%	62.48%	-29.66%
Sterling Heights:	5,317	10,385	643	16,345	-5068	32.53%	63.54%	-31.01%
SH 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 2				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 4				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 6				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 8				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 9				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 10				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 13				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 15				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 16				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 46				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 47				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 901				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 902				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 903				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 907				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Warren	16,070	40,591	2593	59,254	-24521	27.12%	68.50%	-41.38%
Oakland County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferndale	1,960	8,186	709	10,855	-6226	18.06%	75.41%	-57.36%
Hazel Park	1,482	4,733	397	6,612	-3251	22.41%	71.58%	-49.17%
Huntington Woods	717	3,409	97	4,223	-2692	16.98%	80.72%	-63.75%
Lathrup Village	426	2,360	68	2,854	-1934	14.93%	82.69%	-67.76%
Madison Heights	3,631	8,483	582	12,696	-4852	28.60%	66.82%	-38.22%
Oak Park	1,383	14,339	245	15,967	-12956	8.66%	89.80%	-81.14%
Pleasant Ridge	420	1,293	78	1,791	-873	23.45%	72.19%	-48.74%
City of Royal Oak:	858	1,995	144	2,997	-1137	28.63%	66.57%	-37.94%
RO 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
RO 2				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
RO 928				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Royal Oak Twp	13	1,494	16	1,523	-1481	0.85%	98.10%	-97.24%
City of Southfield	3,290	37,772	798	41,860	-34482	7.86%	90.23%	-82.37%
Total	74,565	225,144	12,584	312,293	-150579	23.88%	72.09%	-48.22%

The 2000 and 2004 elections showed the populist areas shift slightly, and the more affluent areas shift slightly the other way. 2008 was an ass kicking, and the biggest increases were in minority areas.

Here's the 2000 numbers.

2000 Elections	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Macomb County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1,365	2,215	115	3,695	-850	36.94%	59.95%	-23.00%
Clinton Twp	19,427	21,075	1016	41,518	-1648	46.79%	50.76%	-3.97%
Eastpointe	5,383	8,558	429	14,370	-3175	37.46%	59.55%	-22.09%
Fraser	3,323	3,743	167	7,233	-420	45.94%	51.75%	-5.81%
Lake Twp	33	13	2	48	20	68.75%	27.08%	41.67%
Mount Clemens	2,393	3,964	216	6,573	-1571	36.41%	60.31%	-23.90%
Roseville	7,059	11,417	521	18,997	-4358	37.16%	60.10%	-22.94%
St Clair Shores	15,175	16,807	951	32,933	-1632	46.08%	51.03%	-4.96%
Sterling Heights:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 1	429	508	22	959	-79	44.73%	52.97%	-8.24%
SH 2	505	513	36	1,054	-8	47.91%	48.67%	-0.76%
SH 3	431	503	20	954	-72	45.18%	52.73%	-7.55%
SH 4	496	565	21	1,082	-69	45.84%	52.22%	-6.38%
SH 5	475	466	14	955	9	49.74%	48.80%	0.94%
SH 6	371	344	24	739	27	50.20%	46.55%	3.65%
SH 8	276	226	21	523	50	52.77%	43.21%	9.56%
SH 9	611	394	23	1,028	217	59.44%	38.33%	21.11%
SH 10	289	276	16	581	13	49.74%	47.50%	2.24%
SH 13	324	335	21	680	-11	47.65%	49.26%	-1.62%
SH 15	427	383	14	824	44	51.82%	46.48%	5.34%
SH 16	351	381	19	751	-30	46.74%	50.73%	-3.99%
SH 46	355	339	14	708	16	50.14%	47.88%	2.26%
SH 47	229	316	14	559	-87	40.97%	56.53%	-15.56%
SH 901	671	684	28	1,383	-13	48.52%	49.46%	-0.94%
SH 902	465	481	18	964	-16	48.24%	49.90%	-1.66%
SH 903	988	1,064	28	2,080	-76	47.50%	51.15%	-3.65%
SH 907	556	402	19	977	154	56.91%	41.15%	15.76%
Warren	23,778	32,697	1539	58,014	-8919	40.99%	56.36%	-15.37%
Oakland County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferndale	2,970	6,107	529	9,606	-3137	30.92%	63.57%	-32.66%
Hazel Park	2,171	3,914	261	6,346	-1743	34.21%	61.68%	-27.47%
Huntington Woods	1,094	2,929	96	4,119	-1835	26.56%	71.11%	-44.55%
Lathrup Village	719	1,855	48	2,622	-1136	27.42%	70.75%	-43.33%
Madison Heights	4,950	6,771	418	12,139	-1821	40.78%	55.78%	-15.00%
Oak Park	1,837	10,912	222	12,971	-9075	14.16%	84.13%	-69.96%
Pleasant Ridge	593	943	74	1,610	-350	36.83%	58.57%	-21.74%
City of Royal Oak:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
RO 1	285	522	34	841	-237	33.89%	62.07%	-28.18%
RO 2	341	477	37	855	-136	39.88%	55.79%	-15.91%
RO 928				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Royal Oak Twp	67	1,840	14	1,921	-1773	3.49%	95.78%	-92.30%
City of Southfield	5,809	30,769	582	37,160	-24960	15.63%	82.80%	-67.17%
Total	107,021	175,708	7,643	290,372	-68687	36.86%	60.51%	-23.65%

2004 numbers:

2004 Elections	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Macomb County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1,613	2,312	47	3,972	-699	40.61%	58.21%	-17.60%
Clinton Twp	23,332	23,842	465	47,639	-510	48.98%	50.05%	-1.07%
Eastpointe	5,838	9,766	181	15,785	-3928	36.98%	61.87%	-24.88%
Fraser	3,893	3,959	78	7,930	-66	49.09%	49.92%	-0.83%
Lake Twp	33	15		48	18	68.75%	31.25%	37.50%
Mount Clemens	2,766	4,419	88	7,273	-1653	38.03%	60.76%	-22.73%
Roseville	8,660	12,738	193	21,591	-4078	40.11%	59.00%	-18.89%
St Clair Shores	17,512	18,088	416	36,016	-576	48.62%	50.22%	-1.60%
Sterling Heights:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 1	402	496	8	906	-94	44.37%	54.75%	-10.38%
SH 2	502	546	8	1,056	-44	47.54%	51.70%	-4.17%
SH 3	454	551	9	1,014	-97	44.77%	54.34%	-9.57%
SH 4	668	795	9	1,472	-127	45.38%	54.01%	-8.63%
SH 5	465	494	9	968	-29	48.04%	51.03%	-3.00%
SH 6	592	551	6	1,149	41	51.52%	47.95%	3.57%
SH 8	297	214	8	519	83	57.23%	41.23%	15.99%
SH 9	552	459	4	1,015	93	54.38%	45.22%	9.16%
SH 10	496	471	15	982	25	50.51%	47.96%	2.55%
SH 13	170	144	9	323	26	52.63%	44.58%	8.05%
SH 15	463	485	11	959	-22	48.28%	50.57%	-2.29%
SH 16	343	467	6	816	-124	42.03%	57.23%	-15.20%
SH 46	478	592	8	1,078	-114	44.34%	54.92%	-10.58%
SH 47	257	335	7	599	-78	42.90%	55.93%	-13.02%
SH 901	706	768	12	1,486	-62	47.51%	51.68%	-4.17%
SH 902	165	164	5	334	1	49.40%	49.10%	0.30%
SH 903	60	68	1	129	-8	46.51%	52.71%	-6.20%
SH 907	1,330	1,208	31	2,569	122	51.77%	47.02%	4.75%
Warren	26,991	34,697	822	62,510	-7706	43.18%	55.51%	-12.33%
Oakland County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferndale	3,456	7,637	160	11,253	-4181	30.71%	67.87%	-37.15%
Hazel Park	2,780	4,412	86	7,278	-1632	38.20%	60.62%	-22.42%
Huntington Woods	1,236	3,068	28	4,332	-1832	28.53%	70.82%	-42.29%
Lathrup Village	686	2,169	14	2,869	-1483	23.91%	75.60%	-51.69%
Madison Heights	5,934	7,443	165	13,542	-1509	43.82%	54.96%	-11.14%
Oak Park	3,120	12,095	98	15,313	-8975	20.37%	78.99%	-58.61%
Pleasant Ridge	658	1,140	18	1,816	-482	36.23%	62.78%	-26.54%
City of Royal Oak:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
RO 1	421	689	12	1,122	-268	37.52%	61.41%	-23.89%
RO 2	511	703	18	1,232	-192	41.48%	57.06%	-15.58%
RO 928	267	384	4	655	-117	40.76%	58.63%	-17.86%
Royal Oak Twp	84	1,683	3	1,770	-1599	4.75%	95.08%	-90.34%
City of Southfield	7,269	33,827	268	41,364	-26558	17.57%	81.78%	-64.21%
Total	125,460	193,894	3,330	322,684	-68434	38.88%	60.09%	-21.21%

And the 2008 whooping. 

2008 Elections	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Macomb County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1,431	2,462	92	3,985	-1031	35.91%	61.78%	-25.87%
Clinton Twp	21,133	27,722	844	49,699	-6589	42.52%	55.78%	-13.26%
Eastpointe	4,670	11,182	341	16,193	-6512	28.84%	69.05%	-40.21%
Fraser	3,601	4,161	168	7,930	-560	45.41%	52.47%	-7.06%
Lake Twp	27	13		40	14	67.50%	32.50%	35.00%
Mount Clemens	2,393	5,171	148	7,712	-2778	31.03%	67.05%	-36.02%
Roseville	7,679	13,769	455	21,903	-6090	35.06%	62.86%	-27.80%
St Clair Shores	16,098	18,531	786	35,415	-2433	45.46%	52.33%	-6.87%
Sterling Heights:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 1	330	511	8	849	-181	38.87%	60.19%	-21.32%
SH 2	438	517	10	965	-79	45.39%	53.58%	-8.19%
SH 3	383	624	21	1,028	-241	37.26%	60.70%	-23.44%
SH 4	567	844	14	1,425	-277	39.79%	59.23%	-19.44%
SH 5	353	571	14	938	-218	37.63%	60.87%	-23.24%
SH 6	482	614	15	1,111	-132	43.38%	55.27%	-11.88%
SH 8	248	262	11	521	-14	47.60%	50.29%	-2.69%
SH 9	450	476	6	932	-26	48.28%	51.07%	-2.79%
SH 10	393	484	24	901	-91	43.62%	53.72%	-10.10%
SH 13	137	185	4	326	-48	42.02%	56.75%	-14.72%
SH 15	352	553	9	914	-201	38.51%	60.50%	-21.99%
SH 16	255	475	12	742	-220	34.37%	64.02%	-29.65%
SH 46	384	671	20	1,075	-287	35.72%	62.42%	-26.70%
SH 47	200	307	8	515	-107	38.83%	59.61%	-20.78%
SH 901	725	796	29	1,550	-71	46.77%	51.35%	-4.58%
SH 902	203	210	3	416	-7	48.80%	50.48%	-1.68%
SH 903	68	61	2	131	7	51.91%	46.56%	5.34%
SH 907	1,369	1,369	31	2,769	0	49.44%	49.44%	0.00%
Warren	24,006	36,901	1282	62,189	-12895	38.60%	59.34%	-20.74%
Oakland County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferndale	2,621	8,532	206	11,359	-5911	23.07%	75.11%	-52.04%
Hazel Park	2,279	4,461	170	6,910	-2182	32.98%	64.56%	-31.58%
Huntington Woods	1,041	3,255	37	4,333	-2214	24.02%	75.12%	-51.10%
Lathrup Village	471	2,433	25	2,929	-1962	16.08%	83.07%	-66.99%
Madison Heights	5,088	8,017	300	13,405	-2929	37.96%	59.81%	-21.85%
Oak Park	2,597	13,836	111	16,544	-11239	15.70%	83.63%	-67.93%
Pleasant Ridge	512	1,311	31	1,854	-799	27.62%	70.71%	-43.10%
City of Royal Oak:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
RO 1	327	745	25	1,097	-418	29.81%	67.91%	-38.10%
RO 2	466	816	21	1,303	-350	35.76%	62.62%	-26.86%
RO 928	258	504	13	775	-246	33.29%	65.03%	-31.74%
Royal Oak Twp	16	1,528	2	1,546	-1512	1.03%	98.84%	-97.80%
City of Southfield	4,701	38,000	288	42,989	-33299	10.94%	88.39%	-77.46%
Total	108,752	212,880	5,586	327,218	-104128	33.24%	65.06%	-31.82%

By Area
Oakland County
2000 - Gore 74.33%, Bush 23.10%, 90190 votes, -46203 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 73.38%,  Bush 25.77%, 102546 votes, -48828 vote spread
2008 - Obama 79.43%, McCain 19.40%, 105044 votes, -63061 vote spread

Macomb County
2000 - Gore 54.29%, Bush 43.05%, 200182 votes, -22484 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 53.90%, Bush 44.99%, 220138 votes, -19606 vote spread
2008 - Obama 58.26%, McCain 39.78%, 222174 votes, -41067 vote spread

The farm club here leans democrat, as expected from a district gerrymandered largely to throw Bonior and Levin in the same district. 

St Senate 14 - Covers Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak Twp, Southfield, and Southfield Twp. This is probably the most democrat state senate district outside of the City of Detroit, give or take Ann Arbor and Flint. Most of this district is in the 12th District, but the Farmingtons and Southfield Twp are in the 9th. Gilda Jacobs is termed out in 2010, but the only chance the GOP has here is if it's a 1994 like year, and even still, there's still Southfield, Lathrup, Ferndale, Oak Park, and Huntington Woods.

St Senate 14th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Bellinger/Jacobs	26571	78346	3114	108,031	-51775	24.60%	72.52%	-47.93%
02 - Wilkins/Jacobs	28249	65538	2030	95,817	-37289	29.48%	68.40%	-38.92%

St Senate 13 -  Covers Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy. This is a swing district that was a barnburner in 2006. Liberal Republican Shirley Johnson was termed out and there was a tough primary and general election. John Pappageorge, a former state rep ran and won a very close race with Andy Levin - Sander Levin's son. Pappageorge's win helped save the senate.

St Senate 13th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Pappageorge/A.Levin	57,204	56,484	3129	116,817	720	48.97%	48.35%	0.62%
02 - Johnson/Levitt	63,793	37,222		101,015	26571	63.15%	36.85%	26.30%

St Senate 11 - Covers Armada Twp, Bruce Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Harrison Twp, Lenox Twp, Macomb Twp, Memphis Twp, Mt Clemens, New Baltimore, Ray Twp,  Richmond City and Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp. If you can call a Macomb County district Solid GOP, this is it. I thought the redistricters did a poor job in Macomb County, which I'll get to in the next seat. Alan Sanborn is termed out, and this seat opens up.

St Senate 11th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Sanborn/Jenkins	65543	42279	2903	110,725	23264	59.19%	38.18%	21.01%
02 - Sanborn/Ayres	55859	26365		82,224	29494	67.94%	32.06%	35.87%

St Senate 10 - Covers Clinton Twp, Roseville, Sterling Heights, and Utica - Why the hell do you take what is otherwise a swing district, and give it Roseville of all places? Roseville is one of the three most democrat places by percentage in Macomb County. Eastpointe and Mt Clemens are the other. Roseville is also home of the Switalski family. Give Switalski the Warren district. Give the Sterling Heights district Shelby Twp instead. That could have made it 2 GOP Senate seats instead of 1 GOP, 1 Dem, and 1 lean Dem. Michael Switalski is the incumbent, and he's termed out. This could be fight if 2010 is a good year. It depends on how well the Republican does in Clinton Twp. He must win it to have a chance here. Postumus did in 2002. Bush came close, but lost it.

St Senate 10th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Horton/Switalski	30,067	62,737	2596	95,400	-32670	31.52%	65.76%	-34.25%
02 - Rice/Switalski	36,424	42,822	1462	80,708	-6398	45.13%	53.06%	-7.93%

St Senate 9th - Covers Center Line, Eastpointe, Fraser, Lake Twp, St Clair Shores, and Warren. - This is the South Macomb County district and has a very strong democrat leaning. All of these areas outside Fraser, Lake Twp and St Clair Shores are strongholds for populist democrats. Fraser and St Clair Shores are winnable in a very good year for the GOP. Winning this seat would be equivalent to the democrats winning the 22nd. Dennis Olshove is termed out after two terms. Dems are likely to keep the open seat.

St Senate 9th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 -Nielson/Olshove	27,294	60,789	1638	89,721	-33495	30.42%	67.75%	-37.33%
02 - Stevens/Olshove	28,588	47,609	2085	78,282	-19021	36.52%	60.82%	-24.30%

St House 42nd - Covers Eastpointe, part of Fraser, and Roseville in Macomb County. This is one of the two most democrat seats in Macomb County. They've held this seat as long as I've followed this.

St Rep 42nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Fleming/Haugh	9,697	26,791	1560	38,048	-17094	25.49%	70.41%	-44.93%
06 - Fleming/Accavitti	7,286	21,718	703	29,707	-14432	24.53%	73.11%	-48.58%
04 - Fleming/Accavitti	10,499	27,269		37,768	-16770	27.80%	72.20%	-44.40%
02 - Riske/Accavitti	7,580	15,746	955	24,281	-8166	31.22%	64.85%	-33.63%

St House 35th - Covers Lathrup Village, part of Oak Park, Royal Oak Township, and the city of Southfield in Oakland County - The most democrat seat in Oakland County. It is a black majority district based in Southfield, although it did vote for Paul Condino for three terms. Vincent Gregory is safe if he survives the primary.

St Rep 35th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Koppin/Gregory	4,936	41,017	894	46,847	-36081	10.54%	87.56%	-77.02%
06 - Zwick/Condino	3,837	31,509		35,346	-27672	10.86%	89.14%	-78.29%
04 - Malisow/Condino	6,075	39,799		45,874	-33724	13.24%	86.76%	-73.51%
02 - Jordan/Condino	6,397	25,876		32,273	-19479	19.82%	80.18%	-60.36%

St House 31st - Covers part of Clinton Township, part of Fraser, and Mount Clemens in Macomb County. This is a slightly democrat leaning, but potentially competitive district. Mount Clemens makes this seat tough for the GOP, but this could be the year to go for it. It's an open seat with Fred Miller termed out. The dems have had this district for at least 12 years, so it won't be easy to take, but it's worth a shot.

St Rep 31st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Tollis/Miller	12,277	26,404	1263	39,944	-14127	30.74%	66.10%	-35.37%
06 - Tollis/Miller	10,348	18,584	777	29,709	-8236	34.83%	62.55%	-27.72%
04 - Morelli/Miller	16,523	21,274	949	38,746	-4751	42.64%	54.91%	-12.26%
02 - Russo/Gieleghem	9,021	14,663	701	24,385	-5642	36.99%	60.13%	-23.14%

St House 28th - Covers Center Line and part of Warren in Macomb County. This is the other major democrat stronghold district in Macomb County. South Warren and Centerline.It's been democrat as long as I remember with its union base.Lesis Liss is a one term incumbent taking over for the Wojno family, who took over for Olshove.

St Rep 28th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Balaska/Liss	10,342	24,659		35,001	-14317	29.55%	70.45%	-40.90%
06 - Knue/Wojno	6,591	19,965		26,556	-13374	24.82%	75.18%	-50.36%
04 - Knue/Wojno	9,748	24,288	547	34,583	-14540	28.19%	70.23%	-42.04%
02 - Stevens/Wojno	6,883	14,998	415	22,296	-8115	30.87%	67.27%	-36.40%

St House 27th - Covers Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, most of Oak Park, and Pleasant Ridge in Oakland County. This is possibly the most liberal district in Michigan. Gilda Jacobs used to have this seat. Ellen Cogen Lipton took over for Andy Meisner.

St Rep 27th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Micola/Lipton	10,099	31,758	2616	44,473	-21659	22.71%	71.41%	-48.70%
06 - Sears/Meisner	7,303	27,285		34,588	-19982	21.11%	78.89%	-57.77%
04 - Axtell/Meisner	10,755	32,447	1188	44,390	-21692	24.23%	73.10%	-48.87%
02 - Sanford/Meisner	7,927	21,037	875	29,839	-13110	26.57%	70.50%	-43.94%

St Rep 26th - Madison Heights and Royal Oak - Strong Democrat leanings, but has been competitive in the past. I think the dems have held this seat since at least 98, if not earlier. It will be opened up in 2010. I think there's an outside shot if it is another 1994 type of year, but this seat is for the dems to lose.

St Rep 26th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Goodman/Donigan	15,471	28,003	1885	45,359	-12532	34.11%	61.74%	-27.63%
06 - Konczal/Donigan	12,357	22,079	1057	35,493	-9722	34.82%	62.21%	-27.39%
04 - Ginotti/Donigan	20,954	22,780	2682	46,416	-1826	45.14%	49.08%	-3.93%
02 - West/Woodward	11,697	19,058	722	31,477	-7361	37.16%	60.55%	-23.39%

St Rep 25th - Covers Northern Warren and Southern Sterling Heights in Macomb County - This district can possibly be competitive in the right year, but favors the democrats. The GOP did have a similar district to this from 96- 2002. I'm not sure if they had it before then too or not. Southern Warren is a democrat stronghold. Northern Warren less so. Southern Sterling Heights leans democrat, not overwhelmingly so. It's not Roseville or Eastpointe. A Switalski is tough to beat in Macomb County.

St Rep 25th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Wiecek/J.Switalski	14,285	26,874	1549	42,708	-12589	33.45%	62.92%	-29.48%
06 - StPierre/Bieda	10,151	22,633	794	33,578	-12482	30.23%	67.40%	-37.17%
04 - Wiecek/Bieda	16,269	25,497		41,766	-9228	38.95%	61.05%	-22.09%
02 - Sadowski/Bieda	12,893	16,910		29,803	-4017	43.26%	56.74%	-13.48%

St Rep 24th - Covers Harrison Twp and the City of St Clair Shores in Macomb County - This is a swing district in the truest sense. Democrat Bill Callahan held the seat, then Republican Jack Brandenburg, and now Sarah Roberts. This is one I think we can take back, especially if Roberts is still driving that foreign car. How many jobs did that cost?

St Rep 24th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - B.Brandenbug/Roberts	22,430	23,495	1678	47,603	-1065	47.12%	49.36%	-2.24%
06 - J.Brandenburg/Abella	22,256	14,645	608	37,509	7611	59.34%	39.04%	20.29%
04 - J.Brandenberg/Foukes	29,111	17,317		46,428	11794	62.70%	37.30%	25.40%
02 - J.Brandenburg/Benson	17,694	14,296	1049	33,039	3398	53.55%	43.27%	10.28%

Overall this district is safe outside of a miracle year or a Don Sherwood type of scandal for Levin. Redistricting may change things a big depending on population shifts. The big battles in this district will probably be the State Senate 13th District, St house 24th, and St House 31st.

Updated 5-18-2010 - This is an interesting August. Sander Levin is facing Switalski, one of the strongest democrats out of Macomb County, in a primary. Switalski might actually pull this one off. We'll see.