Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Jim Marcinkowski to Challenge Mike Rogers

I heard this rumor for a few days, and suspected something awhile back when the county democrats organized a speaking event featuring Marcinkowksi. It's time for a post now that this is out in the open. From the AP



LAKE ORION, Mich. (AP) — A former CIA agent who has criticized the disclosure of undercover CIA officer Valerie Plame's identity said Tuesday he is planning to run as a Democrat for the 8th Congressional District.

Jim Marcinkowski, deputy city attorney for Royal Oak, would face U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton, in the 2006 general election if he wins in the Democratic primary. Marcinkowski said he is planning to run for Congress, but has not yet filed necessary paperwork.

Marcinkowski, 50, of Lake Orion, said he was Plame's classmate at the CIA, where he went on to be an operations officer in Washington from 1985-89.

"The Valerie Plame exposure was certainly personal for me ... but more important is that it is indicative of how this White House is conducting foreign affairs," he said in a telephone interview. "It's a very important issue to national security."


Jim, you're not running against Bush. You're running against Mike Rogers. Why should the people of the 8th district vote for you over Mike Rogers? I don't care about President Bush since he's not running again.

"Mike starts with a particularly large money advantage, but his money advantage will be offset by his positions on the issues," Marcinkowski said. "It's going to be money versus message."


We'll be waiting for your message, Jim.

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This is a district that's becoming more and more republican. It's not a gimme district, but the odds are certainly in the GOP's favor. It went 53.71% for Bush, and Rogers took it with 61.08% of the vote against a low funded, but spirited challenge by Bob Alexander.

The 8th district consists of all or parts of five counties. Ingham County is a democrat stronghold. Shiawassee County is marginal GOP. Livingston and Clinton County are GOP strongholds, as is the portion of Oakland County in this district. I took the two party% from the Orion Township precincts, so both the Bush and Kerry %'s are slightly inflated. These numbers are close however.

Municipality Bush, Kerry, Bush% Kerry%
TOTAL 191658, 161634, 53.71%, 45.30%
Clinton 21989, 15483, 58.16%, 40.95%
Ingham 54734, 76877, 41.14%, 57.78%
Livingston 58860, 33991, 62.79%, 36.26%

Shiawassee County:

Antrim Twp 680 432 60.82%, 38.64%
Bennington Twp 1106 712 60.24%, 38.78%
Burns Twp 1054 688 59.85%, 39.07%
Durand 773 914 45.10%, 53.33%
Laingsburg 327 279 53.26%, 45.44%
Perry 584 432 57.03%, 42.19%
Perry Twp 1255 908 57.60%, 41.67%
Sciota Twp 535 425 55.04%, 43.72%
Shiawasse Twp 804 719 52.21%, 46.69%
Vernon Twp (pt) 1374 1329 50.39%, 48.73%
Woodhill Twp 1258 905 57.55%, 41.40%

Oakland County:

Addison Twp 2403 1113 67.53%, 31.24%
Brandon Twp 4852 3030 60.70%, 37.91%
Clarkston 322 252 55.52%, 43.45%
Groveland Twp 1988 1204 61.76%, 37.04%
Holly Twp 2813 2442 52.73%, 46.77%
Independence Twp 12199 6847 63.50%, 35.64%
Oxford Twp 6155 3557 62.63%, 36.20%
Rose Twp 2139 1337 60.70%, 37.94%
Springfield Twp 4946 2710 63.99%, 35.06%
Orion Twp (Part) 8505 5048 62.75%, 37.25% (of two party vote)

My early predictions have this being another 60-40 race. Marcinkowski seems to be a one issue candidate. He also plays right into the hands of Mike Rogers. Rogers was an FBI agent. He's on the intelligence committee. National Security is his strongpoint and is what Marcinkowski is running on. He also seems to be running against Bush and not Rogers. This may work in East Lansing, but will cost him votes in the deep red areas. Bush won big everywhere outside Ingham County, and ran ahead of most republicans in Shiawassee. Rogers won Ingham County in 2002, and almost won it in 2004, despite a strong anti-Bush view there. Bush hatred may get him the East Lansing, Lansing, and Okemos vote, but that's about it.

We'll see what happens here. Mike should be safe as long as he isn't complacent. He should run this race just as he did in 2002. Ran like he was down 10%, while winning with 68%

7 comments:

Kevins said...

Not so fast. This used to be a swing district until the gop-controlled house and senate gerrymandering it to give MR a safe as seat as possible. The 8th Congressional District produced Debbie Stabenow, and MR only beat Dianne Byrum by 111 votes – less than 1 percent – in 2000.
If anyone is going to beat MR it will be someone like Jim Marcinkowski. I have heard MR speak many, many times, and he’s a very good speaker. I only heard Marcinkowski speak once in Howell, but I was very impressed. He was a classmate of Valerie Plame’s, and he testified before Congress on behalf of his fellow agents CIA agents who were outraged that the Bush Administration outed an undercover CIA agent.
MR is such a bush algologist it’s disgusting. He needs to be reminded GWB is not his constituent; the people of Howell and the 8th Congressional district are his constituents, not GW. Can you tell me one thing MR has done for the people of the 8th Congressional District in almost six years? I can’t think of anything either.

Anonymous said...

Mike who? Mike Rogers does not care about the 8th, he is a career politician and just wishes to obey George Bush and get on better committees.
He deals cheaply with our children's lives.

Patrick Flynn said...

Republicans who flip and become Democrats? There really is no such thing. They're just RINOs who were called home.

Anonymous said...

Republicans are just Democrats with bad information!

Once they see the light, they leave the dark side. Hating poor people, gays and Muslims seems to be what being a Republican is all about these days. There is not one thread left of what it meant to be a Republican before Ronald Reagan.

Of course people will wake up and leave the Republican party. Have you all noticed how crazy the Republican letters to the editor are in the Press Argus? Even your sensible Republicans cannot support what the party is doing!

Patrick Flynn said...

A lot of what you perceive the Republican Party is guilty of is brought to you through the eyes of CNN, CNBC, and the "nutwork" news. Your party, Mr. Anonymous was not exactly the picture of virtue in the nineties. A little selective amnesia here I think.

We can agree that the problem in any party or group is individual hearts that grow cold and minds that grow numb to what is right and wrong. When that happens, people do stupid things and hurt others.

To be quite honest though, your argument has zero credibility. It's bad enough that you lack the courage to identify yourself but when you accuse us of hating poor people, gays and Muslims, you truly lay bare your ignorance. Sorry if that hurts, but it's the absolute truth.

Republican Michigander said...

"""Hating poor people, gays and Muslims seems to be what being a Republican is all about these days."""

This is why I don't delete liberal posts. Thanks for posting that ridiculous comment. That's a parody, right?

Anonymous said...

I’m still waiting for someone to tell me what MR has done for his real constituents, the residents of the 8th Congressional District, not GWB.
I know the gop has pushed hard the myth, no political strategy, of the so-called “Liberal media,” but that’s what it is, a myth. That what really offends me about the gop. Although you are not talking to me, Mr. Flynn, with your comment, “… (Our) party is not exactly the picture of virtue in the nineties.” My question is what did the Democrats do in the ‘90s that was so bad? The president committed adultery and betrayed his wife. While wrong, that was an issue between him and his wife, or maybe even the voters. However, no one died.
Although I didn’t say this, “Hating poor people, gays and Muslims seems to be what being a Republican is all about these days” its not far off the mark. It may be an oversimplification, but the gop could care less about the plight of those people. What’s “ridiculous” about that charge? Under this president, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, the middle class is fast disappearing, we invaded a country based on false information and if you need any proof about conservatives hating gays, just look at the group that calls itself LOVE at Howell High School. .
I know what the term RINO means, but calling someone that is what’s really ridiculous. We will welcome you to the Democratic Party; we have a much bigger tent and capacity for tolerance.