Monday, May 14, 2007

County democrats set their goals - Don't write them off

The dems are prepping for 2008. From the Argus

One Democratic county commissioner, five Democratic township trustees, and 51 percent of Livingston County residents voting for Democratic Sen. Carl Levin — those are the 2008 election goals for the party that has been the minority in this county for decades.
Matt Evans, chairman of the county Democratic Party, said goals were decided on after analyzing the results of the last

"We think that we can do it," he said. "They're not going to be easy goals to meet ... We'll be running quite a few more candidates."

I'm going to get some flames from my side for this, but I think those goals are reachable. It has been done before here in Livingston County. I also have a quote for the Republicans here from one of my favorite movies - "Young Guns"

"A man has to test himself every day. When you stop testing yourself, you get slow. When that happens, they kill you."

We got slow nationally in 2006 due to some major league idiots. The republicans stopped being conservative, were fiscally irresponsible, had to deal with idiots like Mark Foley (good riddance), and took the social conservative populists for granted. That's when they killed us. We can not get slow here locally, or we will be on the short end of a 49%-47%-2% loss. In 2006, I said that we took one on the chin in this county and survived a decision. We got another fight on the horizon here.

As to the goals of Matt Evans,

1. Township trustees:
Putnam and Unadilla townships have always been strong locally for democrats. I believe there are about 8 trustees among them (at least six). If you get an incumbent dropping out unexpectedly at the filing deadline, with only a democrat challenging, they win one. That happened in Fowlerville - uncontested win. I think this is a very attainable goal for them unless we have a good eye on things. The bipartisan "Keep Putnam Rural" slate won big in 04. Development in general is a big issue around here, and is one that can effect us politically - both in a positive and negative way. This depends on the candidates.

2. One county commissioner:
This has been done before. Jake Donahue was a comissioner here 15 years ago, again in the Putnam/Unadilla area. What is contestable I think will be determined by which district is opened by candidates running for Chris Ward and Joe Hune's seats. So far, Steve Williams in County Commissioner district 6 is running for Ward's seat, so there is one open seat. The open seat covers all of Putnam Township, most of Marion Township, part of Genoa, and a small part of Hamburg. The district leans GOP thanks to Genoa/Marion, but I think that's a winnabe district for the dems if the GOP candidate bombs in Pinckney. I also expect at least two other county commission seats to open up (one solid GOP, one leaner) due to state rep candidates. I also expect at least two township supervisor seats to open up. Which ones.....wait and see.

3. Carl Levin getting 51%:
I doubt it, since Levin is so leftist that he might as well be a commie. Gun grabbing, abortion on demand, high taxes. He even sold out his union base by supporting permanent most favored trade status to China. He's far out of the mainstream of middle America. However, he's an institution and has been around for 30 years. Statewide democrats have won this county before, most recently Frank Kelley, so this is not unprecidented.

Another aspect is who is going to lead the ticket for each party. If it's Hillary, John Kerry, or Obama, then the dems will have a tough time reaching their goals. If the GOP runs a weak candidate, it's more attainable. We'll see what happens.


keithr said...

Good analysis.

The Dems have a shot at some township seats because of Democrats moving in along the southern boundry of Livingston County, but the final outcome will be heavily influenced by turnout and the strength of other Republican candidates.

The Senatorial race is tough to comment on since we don't know who will be running on the Republican side. It is hard to get a strong candidate in a race that is almost certain to be lost. If the Republicans run a real weak candidate and don't get their act together for the presidential race is it definitely possible for Levin to get over 50%.

Adam said...

Like he said, Levin is an institution in Michigan. And now that he is getting constant national publicity, I am quite sure he'll win.

I thought Mike Bouchard was a great candidate. Too bad the state spent too much time trying to get DeVos elected. I thought Do Nothing Debbie was vulnerable.

I'd like to see Bouchard run again, but against Levin, i just don't see it happening.

The only way I see Levin losing is 1. scandal, but with his track record i really don't see that happening. 2. The dems get their surrender date and it completely backfires. If that happens the GOP should hammer EVERYONE (including the defeatist republicans) for their failures.

Pogo said...

Republicans need to put forward a candidate who is willing to hammer the Democrats while pushing for broad reforms. Bouchard was O.K. but he did not run the kind of aggressive campaign needed to defeat an incumbant. Short of a major scandal I doubt anyone can defeat Levin but a good candidate could push some new ideas out into the mainstream, laying the groundwork for future Republican candidates.