Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Livingston Preview 08 (as of 3-26-08)

This is a focus on the 08 races as of now.

US House - Mike Rogers is presumably running again. On the democrat side, I've heard that Bob Alexander wants a rematch. Alexander barely won Ingham County in 04. I don't think Alexander is strong enough to beat Mike, especially with his anti-gun comments after the sunset of the ugly gun ban. He'll have his strong anti-war support, but that won't be enough as Rogers survived 06 despite losing big in Ingham County. A Lansing style of far-left democrat can not win this district post redistricting with the additions of Clinton and Oakland County, and the removal of the Ann Arbor/Flint suburbs.

State Reps:
District 47 - One candidate is in - Carl Konopaska out of Fowlerville. I don't know much about him except that he interned in Joe's office, but don't count out young lesser known candidates from Fowlerville. One won back in 2002. His name was Joe Hune. I also expect Cindy Denby to run, but as she works in Joe's office right now, she is not going to run until she takes a leave of absence - if she decides to run. I've heard Dave Domas and Don Parker may run as well, as did the paper, but we'll see what happens there. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Cindy Denby winning this open seat, but we'll see what happens. No democrats have declared at this time. If they are going to fire off a strong candidate, this is the time for them to do so with an open seat. I expect a stronger than normal candidate for them. This district should stay ours, but let's not forget the lessons of Don Sherwood for coughing up a safe district about as Republican as Livingston County.

District 66 - Two candidates are in so far on the GOP side. Jason Corosanite and Bill Rogers. Jason is a chiropractor and a businessman. Bill, besides being Mike's brother, is a county commissioner and also a businessman. He has the name, but has experience that can stand on its own merits. Budget matters are the big issue so far in this primary, as expected. On the democrat side, someone from Milford jumped in - Tommy Crawford. I don't know anything about him, except that he pledges to "bring jobs to Michigan, Fight Global Warming, make sure Michiganders have good Health Care, Also everyone is equal to me." I'd like to know how he plans to do that. We'll see. Donna Anderson (who ran against Valde Garcia in 06) may run here. Again, this district should stay ours (and is more Republican than the 47th - as it doesn't have Putnam, Unadilla, Hamburg, or Howell City), but the Don Sherwood lessons apply here as well.

All the County Commission seats are up, as are the township leadership positions.
The County Commission has one open seat. One is the Bill Rogers seat which covers the City of Brighton and parts of Genoa Township. These parts of Genoa are some of the most republican areas in the county, and the City of Brighton is a very marginal area, but it's a strong republican lean for now depending on the campaigns. Carol Griffith (of ERA realtors) is running for the GOP, no democrat has announced. I'm not sure if other republicans are in. The rest of the districts have incumbents unless Dave Domas or Don Parker run for state rep.

I have not heard much about the township races, although I'd be worried if I was a Hamburg Township official right now with the infighting going on there. That township is not so republican where it is impossible for a democrat to win with enough defections. Fair warning to the Hamburg officials reading this.

The school elections for Brighton are up in May.
The three running are:
Winnie Garrett, Jonathan Krause, and Cheryl Leach

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