Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Two Weeks left till election

Sorry for the lack of updates. I had a ton of work to do and that took priority. I should be getting on back soon. I'll mention this quickly.

Polls. I've seen 1pt and 2pt margins. I've seen 10pt margins. Which is true? Which isn't? Who knows. The difference between a lot of them is the sampling and estimates. Somee polls have a larger democrat sample and a lower Republican sample. That's an educated guess by the polling firm. Some say it is intentional sampling by in particular the media polls to try and depress GOP turnout. I don't know.

All I know with the polls is this. At best, it is a snapshot in time of how the election would be on that day. The real poll that counts is election day. You can control this poll if you are registered. Show up and cast your vote. This is the one that counts.

Also, those in the media going after Joe the Plumber should get their cameras smashed over their head, or stabbed by their own pens. Joe does not deserve to be vetted for daring to ask their Caesar a question that made him look bad. Joe is not running for office. He's a guy making a living. Obama does not get the vetting Joe did, and he wants to be our president.

I think the media should be vetted. Take the names of those who go after people like that. Vet them. Look up their past. They have skeletons. It's time these people who go after families (hypocrite Campbell Brown whose dad is a democrat politician who went to prison) and after Joe get theirs. In the alternative, call up the advertisers and tell them if they advertise here that we won't do business with them until someone better is in that timeslot or column.

Lastly, McCain. McCain needs to use his strengths. This is time of crisis. McCain needs to articulate his plans, with the foreign policy, with the mortgage crisis, and energy costs (still important), and use his experience (Palin did more than Obama in 1/2 of the time). He has it, and Obama is a pee-wee league candidate who did jack and shit during his four years in the Senate. (named a post office, and gave money to Congo). Jack left the building.

Two weeks left. The window is almost shut. Time to raise doubts and time to close the deal.


keithr said...

Regarding polls . . . looking at Presidential polls going back to 1980, in every year except 1984 the majority of polls showed Democrats leading in the weeks before the election, yet Republicans won every race except for 1992 and 1996.

So it is no surprise to see, once again, a Democrat presidential candidate leading in the polls.

And a wild card got thrown in this year with the race factor. Many Obama supporters have been calling McCain supporters racist for not supporting Obama. (I've personally been called a racist by two different Obama Kool-Aid drinkers, not for anything I've said or done, but just for openly supporting McCain, so I know this is true). These tactics don't bother me, but many people are intimidated and are afraid to admit to pollsters who they really plan to vote for. They don't want to be called a racist so they lie to pollsters. This is called the "Bradley factor" because it happened in CA a few years ago in the race between Bradley and the Terminator, where Bradley led in the polls by up to 8% but lost the election. It's impossible to say how much effect this will have on the presidential election but it has to be keeping Obama advisors awake at night with worry, especially with many reputable polls now saying the election is too close to call.

Red Or Dead said...

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deļ¬cit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

View Results From Prior Days

About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at