Friday, April 02, 2010

Michigan 13th district (MI-13) - Updated

Updated 8-4-2010 - Kwame's mom has been defeated. Hansen Clarke won the primary.

Michigan's 13th District - Congress

Incumbent - Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-Detroit)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 14
Cook District Numbers - D+31

GOP Candidate - John Hauler
Dem Candidates - Hansen Clarke

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 84%
McCain - 16%

2004:
Kerry - 81%
Bush - 19%

2000
Gore - 80%
Bush - 19%


This is one of two black majority "Voting Rights Act" districts in Michigan. The other one is the 14th district which is held by John Conyers. It covers about 1/2 of the City of Detroit, Ecorse, all of the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods, Lincoln Park, River Rouge, and Wyandotte.

This is generally the "east side" district and is represented by Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. Kilpatrick is in trouble, but it is in the primary election and not the general. She has some glaring weaknesses. In the Obama year in Obama's best city for votes, Kilpatrick was held to 74%, running 10% behind Obama. It probably would have been less if Michigan got rid of than damn straight ticket voting BS.

Kilpatrick lost the Grosse Pointes, which is not surprising, but she lost Wyandotte as well. Wyandotte is solidly democrat. Lincoln Park was close as well. Kilpatrick won the primary with less than 40% last time.I think she's toast this August unless the vote is split in the primary again.Hansen Clarke and Glenn Plummer are going to give it a go.

This is an 80%+ democrat district. Detroit itself is consistently 93% democrat - most in the entire country. I'm not going to number crunch this district. I'll get to the farm club here when I go over Wayne County in the county updates. There's only one competitive district here, and that is the 1st district state house, which covers the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods, and part of Detroit. The rest is all democrat strongholds.

Update 5-18-2010 - I think with the amount of candidates in the primary, Kilpatrick's chances are upgraded heavily. She barely survived a 3-way in 08. A 6-way race makes this likely easier unless none of the candidates get their campaigns off the ground.

Updated 8-4-2010 - Hansen Clarke defeated Kwame's mom. This one is over.

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