Congressional District 13 (MI-13) - Updated

Update 2014 - Conyers is running again and facing Horace Sheffield in the primary. I'm not sure which one is worse here. Conyers is at least old and will be gone soon. At least people will have a choice here.

MI-13 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – John Conyers (D-Detroit)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 50

Challengers –Jeff Gorman (R-Garden City), Horace Sheffield (D-Detroit)

2012:

John Conyers – 222535 – 82.15%

Harry Sawicki – 38380 – 14.17%

-184155 vote difference

Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)

Romney  – 14.12%

Obama – 85.33%

2008:  Approx

McCain – 14.44%

Obama – 84.589%

2004:  approx

Bush – 19.31%

Kerry – 79.93%

-80650 vote difference

Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. District has about 55% of Detroit. Detroit is slightly over 50% of the district votes. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.

I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said.  

This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13^th and 14^th districts have odd shapes. This district is solely in Wayne County and covers a path between Inkster and Romulus to Ecorse and River Rouge through Detroit.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

 

2008

2004

Starting on the SW end, Romulus is the home of Detroit Metro Airport. It’s safe democrat and has been as long as I remember. It’s long had a large black population, but it’s close to 50/50 today.  It’s gone over 70% dem the last three elections, lately 78 and 79%. Obama did better here in 2012 than 2008. Next door is Wayne and Westland. Those are both heavily union, either UAW or Airport workers. They are both about 17% black, and in Westland’s case, heavily increasing. East of Westland is Inkster and Garden City. Garden City is still overwhelmingly white and union. It’s consistently 54-58% democrat. Inkster is and has been majority black. It’s gone from 88% dem in 04 to 94% dem today. Romney did worse than McCain in all of these areas.

East of there is Dearborn Heights. Most of it is in this district. Romney did worse than McCain here as well. It’s white, but less so than it was, especially as the Parkland and Warrendale section’s of Detroit are emptying out.  North of there is Redford. Redford Twp has gone from being competitive and “conservadem” as recently as the 90’s to 57% Kerry, 66% Obama 08, and 70% Obama 2012. Migration. A lot of the Irish and Polish there are moving out, and a lot of Detroiters are moving it. It was 28% black in 2010. It’ll be black majority by the end of the decade.

South of Detroit is Melvindale, Ecorse, and River Rouge. All three have long been democrat strongholds due to both labor and minorities. Ecorse and River Rouge are majority minority with a black plurality. Obama did better in all three areas in 2012 than in 2008. Melvindale went 72% for Obama, and the others went about 90%.

While Conyers runs slightly behind the ticket, this seat is likely his until he retires or dies in office. He survived a credible primary opponent in Glenn Anderson despite Monica Conyers being behind bars. He’s safe. There’s a long bench for this district if it opens up for the dems.

MI-13	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Wayne County
Dearborn Hghts (most)	8386	15019	23645	-6633	35.47%	63.52%
DH24	-327	-463	-797	136	41.03%	58.09%
DH25	-301	-585	-895	284	33.63%	65.36%
dh 26	-301	-449	-763	148	39.45%	58.85%
dh 27	-286	-501	-796	215	35.93%	62.94%
dh 911ac	-468	-542	-1021	74	45.84%	53.09%
Detroit (55% of city)	3310	154959	158721	-151649	2.09%	97.63%
Ecorse	327	3350	3702	-3023	8.83%	90.49%
Garden City	5283	7230	12672	-1947	41.69%	57.05%
Highland Park	43	3712	3759	-3669	1.14%	98.75%
Inkster	567	10625	11228	-10058	5.05%	94.63%
Melvindale	1028	2824	3884	-1796	26.47%	72.71%
Redford Twp	6905	16835	23969	-9930	28.81%	70.24%
River Rouge	320	2818	3156	-2498	10.14%	89.29%
Romulus	2233	8747	11061	-6514	20.19%	79.08%
Wayne	2477	5080	7630	-2603	32.46%	66.58%
Westland	12598	23840	36759	-11242	34.27%	64.85%
Total	41794	252499	295914	-210705	14.12%	85.33%

Glenn Anderson announces and MI-13 updates

Things just got real interesting. According to the Michigan Liberal website, term limited State Senator Glenn Anderson is announcing a congressional run. I've heard two potential districts. The 11th district (MI-11) and the 13th District (MI-13) I think it will likely be the 13th district, and will assume that in this post. Anderson lived in the 11th until redistricting placed most of his state senate district in the 13th.

Anderson currently represents the old 6th district in the state senate. The old 6th was Garden City, Livonia, Redford, and Westland. All of it used to be in the 11th. Redistricting kept Livonia in the 11th and placed Garden City, Redford, and Westland in the 13th. Anderson lost Livonia, but won the rest of the district. That's why I think he won't run in the new 11th against Thad McCotter (or Mike Kowall).

The 13th is currently represented by Hansen Clarke, who is running in the 14th. John Conyers in the 14th, is running in the 13th. It is a Voting Rights Act black majority district. However, it's not 60% black anymore, but about 55-56% I believe. It's still designed to elect a black representative, but much of the white portion of this district is democrat (more so than the 14th), including locally. Conyers won't have to deal with Oakland County now, but he's got some areas which don't care for him personally (or more so his wife Monica) - and they will vote in primaries. In addition, Anderson is the only candidate running from outside the city of Detroit (or Highland Park). Bert Johnson and Shanelle Jackson (the only woman running in the primary) are also running.

Anderson knows how to win tough races. He defeated an incumbent in 2006 and defeated a former state rep in 2010 in a race that some thought would be closer.

Conyers has two Achilles heels. One is Monica Conyers. The other is Suburbs. He lost to a "sacrificial lamb" Republican in Trenton, Southgate, Riverview, Grosse Ile, Gibralter, and Allen Park. He also came close to losing in Melvindale and underperformed in East Dearborn (the Muslim part). Only Grosse Ile usually goes Republican. For comparison, Hansen Clarke won Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, and even competitive Grosse Pointe Park. This was after Carolyn Kilpatrick lost 2-1 in GP Park and Wyandotte in the Obama year of 2008. She did win Lincoln Park. Clarke had some goodwill because he was the guy who beat Kwame Kilpatrick's mom. This isn't about race at all. Clarke is minority (Black and Bangladeshi) as is Kilpatrick, and Clarke in a GOP year ran better than Kilpatrick in a democrat year. Conyers has an unpopular wife who was on city council. Carolyn Kilpatrick has an unpopular son as mayor.

Most of those areas aren't in the district, but Westland, Redford, Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Wayne are all areas similar to Downriver in their attitudes. Mostly white, more moderate socially, pro-labor, blue collar and working class. Romulus and Inkster are also in the district and are heavily black - but represented by neither Conyers nor Anderson. Westland and Redford are increasingly black, but Anderson already represents those areas, and Westland is his home.

Those areas all lean democrat, sometimes 60% plus. They are locally democrat as well. They will likely be voting in the primary. They most likely won't be voting for Conyers, and at least three of those areas are very familiar with Anderson. If it is still a four way race, I think he has a decent good shot to win (as does Jackson). If Johnson or especially Jackson (the only woman running) drops out, it will be much a tougher road for Anderson.

The district about has 705,000 people. Anderson's portion of the district has 156,784. The portion Detroit reps do not represent total about 275,000. That includes Inkster, the Dearborn Heights portion, Romulus, and Wayne. Ecorse, River Rouge (Monica Conyers is originally from there), and Melvindale are represented currently by Detroit Reps, as is Highland Park (obviously). Anderson will have to win big in the non-Detroit portion to have a shot. I also think Jackson (being the only woman running, and being much younger than Conyers or Anderson) has a shot at winning some of those areas, particularly Inkster and Romulus. Those two areas were near Anderson's district, but not part of it. On the other hand, one united factor in that area besides the UAW is the airport. Anderson's district doesn't have the airport, but is right near it, and I'm sure Westland has a lot of airport commuters.

The bulk of this district is Detroit, mostly the West Side, which is the home base of Conyers. That doesn't mean they will all vote for him. Monica Conyers really damaged that last name. Primaries are also common in Detroit. Conyers isn't the only Detroiter running. Bert Johnson (Highland Park, but grew up in Detroit and represents part of it) and Shanelle Jackson are also running. Anderson has his work cut out for him here. He'll get a few votes by default, but he's been in Westland for 33 years. The split will help him with whites, but it will hurt him with blacks who refuse to vote for Mr. Monica Conyers (but would help with those open to alternative, but not to non-city residents).

I'd like to have seen a precinct area of the Kwame Kilpatrick vs Freeman Hendrix areas. I think this area is where this primary will be decided. The Hendrix areas are mostly likely to vote for a challenger to Conyers, especially with Monica being in the news so often.

Bert Johnson currently lives in Highland Park which is in the new district. Most of his senate district is in the 14th, although his home is in the 13th. Geography hurts him some, but he'll get some votes.

Old Redford/Rosedale Park is Shanelle Jackson's state rep district. I have family that used to live there years ago. Last time I was down near there (Old Redford) was back in the Hendrix/Kilpatrick race. Most of the signs I saw were for Hendrix. I still have family in the district just south of there. Warrendale/Parkland. That area was dominated by city workers, and there's still a number of them still there. They wern't Kwame fans, and I don't think they care for Conyers either with Monica on that city council. Jackson has an opening there with proximity, and so does Anderson with some of the whites still there.

While downtown isn't in this district, most of Southwest Detroit, including a lot of the Mexican areas. They could be a major swing vote in this race, and I have no idea who they would support.

Conyers has his toughest election in years, and could very well be defeated, either by Jackson or Anderson. It'll be interesting to see how this race goes in August of 2012.

Peters to run in the 14th District

Interesting decision here.

From the Detroit News

Detroit— The races for Congress became clearer Thursday as U.S. Rep. Gary Peters announced he'll challenge for the Democratic nomination in the 14th District and longtime U.S. Rep. John Conyers decided he will run in the new 13th District.

With the state losing a seat in Congress due to population loss, Peters was the odd-man-out as his old 9th District was carved up, leaving him without a seat. Under the same boundaries, Conyers' 14th District was redrawn to include portions of Wayne and Oakland counties, but not much of his traditional base.

Part of the logjam was resolved when U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke, D-Detroit, announced he'd run in the new 14th District, which includes areas he now represents. That opened the door for speculation about whether Conyers would then run in the 13th, a move that a source close to Conyers confirmed to The News on Thursday.

Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, on Thursday told supporters he'll run for office in the new 14th District.

"… Congressional districts are just lines on a map," Peters, serving his second term in Congress, said in an email to supporters. "I believe that regardless of where we call home, we all want the same things: economic security, fairness from government, and an honest chance to find success and happiness."

"I've spent my life fighting for these values."

Also eying the seat are Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and Southfield Treasurer Irv Lowenberg.

Lines on a map, Peters? Bad choice of words when describing people's homes. I don't think people would buy that line if I ran for office in the nearby 7th or 11th districts which border Green Oak. The area Peters represents now in this district is Pontiac, Farmington Hills, Orchard Lake, Keego Harbor, and West Bloomfield. He's currently in the 9th along with Sander Levin in a district that's really mostly the old 12th. If I was Peters, I'd have instead mentioned that I represented the people in Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, and Pontiac in Congress, and am running to represent those as well as the new areas of this district.

John Conyers is running in the 13th instead, while Hansen Clarke is running in the 14th. I don't find that controversial as they are in the same city. Detroiters representing Detroit.

However, neither Conyers or Clarke is going to get a free pass. Conyers will be facing State Senator Bert Johnson (Highland Park) and also State Rep Shanelle Jackson (Detroit). There may be others, but those are in so far. I think Conyers is favored, but if someone goes after the Redford/Westland/Garden City/Dearborn Heights votes, this could get interesting. I don't think most of them care for Mr Monica Conyers. I think they would gladly consider a strong alternative candidate.

Clarke I think has a easier battle with Peters who became infamous with his Obamacare vote. If Brenda Lawrence jumps in, I think she'll have a very good chance to win (more as pro-Lawrence rather than anti-Clarke). Peters was able to win last time largely because of Pontiac, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield. Those areas all tilt democrat, but will they vote for Peters over the well known and not very controversial Lawrence? Outside of Bloomfield, I doubt it, and that includes the white folks. Over Clarke? I don't know. Clarke isn't Conyers and doesn't have as much of controversial demeanor to suburbanites. A lot of people don't know who he is, outside of a recent state legislature and the guy who beat Carolyn Kilpatrick. The fact that he beat Kwame's mom gets him some credit in his favor right off the bat.

As a Republican, I don't see a lot of difference between any of them from a voting record standpoint, only in style differences and committee differences. Conyers is on judiciary. Clarke is on science and homeland security. I wouldn't mind seeing a gun grabber off of judiciary. I'd rather see Clarke win than Peters, since Peters doesn't need statewide traction with his ambitions and Oakland County base.

Bert Johnson still going to primary Conyers

With Clarke and Conyers switching districts, it's going to be smooth sailing right?

Maybe not. Highland Park State Senator Bert Johnson is going to primary Conyers anyway, no matter which district he runs. How this effects the race will be unknown.

From the Detroit news

State Sen. Bert Johnson, D-Highland Park, announced Friday he'll run for Congress in the 13th District.

The decision follows a move Sunday by freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke, D-Detroit, to run in the 14th District rather than his current 13th. Rep. John Conyers, the current 14th District representative, has not announced his intention, but it's expected he'll run in Clarke's 13th.

The swap by the two congressmen occurs after redistricting maps were approved recently by Gov. Rick Snyder. The new maps drastically changed the shape of the Detroit districts, and a switch would allow Clarke and Conyers to better align with their constituencies.

"I am indeed running," Johnson said on the "First Shift with Tony Trupiano Show" on WDTW-AM (1310).

"… It will be the 13th Congressional District."

Johnson had originally said he would run against Conyers in the 14th District, which includes part of Detroit, the Grosse Pointes and parts of Oakland County. The shift to the 13th includes the west side of Detroit, his hometown of Highland Park and parts of western Wayne County.

Johnson has a felony on his record. Robbery related. He was 19 at the time. I think he's 34 or 35 now. It'll be an issue, but it was a long time ago.

The big question to his chances is who else jumps in. In a one-on-one matchup between the two, I think the key will be the white ethnics and suburban blacks in the district. Westland, Redford, Garden City. Who sells there. They aren't Conyers voters. They are Glenn Anderson, Richard LeBlanc, Jim Plakus, and Eileen DeHart voters (I'd like to see DeHart or LeBlanc run). They prefer union democrats with more moderate reputations. Will they vote for Johnson with his record? Usually no. Over Conyers? That's an interesting decision. This isn't a Brenda Lawrence type of challenge here.

At worst, there's a choice. I don't think there will be many voting record differences between Johnson or Conyers. I think Conyers will survive, but who knows what will happen. I hope they all spend a ton of money in the primary. That's how Republicans would win in this race.

Clarke and Conyers to likely switch districts

This has been rumored for awhile. From Politico

Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) avoided a perilous primary challenge Sunday when neighboring Rep. Hansen Clarke paved the way for the two Michigan Democrats to essentially swap congressional districts ahead of their reelection bids.

The maneuvering came less than two weeks after Republican Gov. Rick Snyder signed into law a new congressional map that carved up both Conyers’ and Clarke’s districts in a way that had them each representing many of the others’ constituents — a dynamic that led several Democrats to eye a primary against Conyers. But Clarke, a freshman, announced Sunday that he would run in the 14th District now held by Conyers — something Conyers had been quietly pushing for behind the scenes for weeks.

Here's the map. "Mr Monica" Conyers is in the Palmer Park neighborhood on Detroit's Northwest side. It's in that stretch of the 14th north of Highland Park. The old district was more of a West Side district. Clarke's in the 13th, but will be running in the 14th. He's on Detroit's East side, and a lot of the 14th represents that area. It's not a controversial carpetbagger type of move with their West/East side histories.

I think this is very significant though in regards to the primary. A Democrat will win these districts barring a Bill Jefferson type of situation, but these districts are now about 55% VRA minority districts instead of 65%+ districts. It is conceivable that a non-Detroit candidate, or even a white candidate, can win those districts.

That's more likely in the 14th, with Oakland County and the Grosse Pointes both in that district, being hostile to certain Detroit candidates. Conyers is more outspoken and is perceived as more confrontational in style than Clarke, and is choosing the district strictly in Wayne County and without the Pointes. His primary path is - at least right now, easier than Clarke's. Clarke will have a tougher path on paper, but I think he'd do better in Oakland/Pointes than Conyers. The Pointes lean republican, but will often vote in Democrat primaries in non gubernatorial elections. The state rep seat there is competitive, but the other districts are solidly democrat. They don't like "Mr Monica" Conyers. They didn't like the Barbara Rose Collins. They didn't like Kwame Kilpatrick, and took it out on his mom. Hansen Clarke isn't in that category as far as I know. Conservatives don't like his voting record, but they don't like the voting record of Gary Peters either. These potential primaries are more about style, corruption, and attitude than the actual voting records.

Brenda Lawrence, Southfield mayor, may be running in Clarke's district. Gary Peters (lives in 9th, next door to Pontiac/W.Bloomfield), and Tim Melton (Pontiac or neighboring Auburn Hills) also might run. Another candidate is Bert Johnson, a state senator from the City of Detroit. He planned on running against Conyers, not Clarke. I don't know if he'll change his plans or not. He has won several times as a state legislator though. Other than that, I don't know much about him. I think the biggest factor in how a primary challenge goes will be the mouths of the candidates or their top aides, and how antagonistic each particular candidate is towards suburbs or whitey (not the same thing). With less and less of the district being in Detroit, the key is for there to be a balance in style not ticking off either side too much. This district would favor more Dennis Archer and less Sharon McPhail. That's why I think Clarke would be a much tougher opponent to challenge in this district than "Mr Monica" Conyers. There isn't the level of dislike for Clarke outside of the city as there is for the name Conyers (Or Kilpatrick, Rose-Collins, Coleman A Young). I don't think Peters would win a primary. I think a lot of his core support in Pontiac was due to who he isn't instead of who he is. Melton? Without Auburn Hills, that would be a tougher go for him. Brenda Lawrence would be a very strong challenger however, with Southfield's added significance with Detroit's population drops.

The 13th is more favorable to Conyers with him not having to deal with the Pointes or Oakland County, but it might not be a free pass. He has several white-majority working class suburbs which are democrats and will vote in that party's primary. He wouldn't have to face Brenda Lawrence here, but a guy like Glenn Anderson could give him a tough race. Romulus, Wayne, Westland, Garden City, Inkster, Dearborn Heights, and Redford are all new to the district. Anderson represented Westland, Garden City, and Redford. Will Detroit former state senator Buzz Thomas (depending on where he lives) go for it? He planned on it before and stepped back. I think Conyers is favored to win a primary, but I don't think it will be a cakewalk.

Keep an eye on the primaries here if there are any. While the incumbents are favored, certain candidates running could make this a very interesting race.

Congressional District 13 - Redistricted (MI-13)

Incumbent - Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit) - Running in MI-14
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2
The old 13th district information is here.

Challengers - Harry Sawicki (R-Dearborn Heights), John Conyers (D-Detroit, incumbent in MI-13),

Update 8-30-2012 - John Conyers won easily against the field. I'm surprised at how easy it was, although I'm not surprised he won.

Update 5-1-2012 - There's been several write-ups in the MI-13/MI-14 districts since I first posted this. A lot of people are running campaigns in both of these districts but have not turned  in their signatures. Conyers and Johnson are officially in. Shanelle Jackson and Glenn Anderson are also likely running here. Clarke, Brenda Lawrence, and Gary Peters are likely running in MI-14

Update 5-16-2012 - It's a major primary. Advantage to Mr. Monica Conyers, or is it? The big questions here are who is organized, how territorial are the candidates in their area (Anderson in Westland, Jackson in NW, Johnson in Highland Park), and how the vote splits. My money is on Conyers, but I can't discount Anderson, Jackson, or Johnson either assuming those campaigns ARE organized, funded, and hitting doors.

This is one of two black majority voting rights act districts in Michigan. I'm not going to run the numbers because Detroit itself is 93-95% democrat. Detroit's population keeps dropping, but it's still about 1/2 of the district. My guess is that Clarke will win with about 80% of the vote each election.

The old 13th district was Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods and much of downriver. The Pointes go to John Conyers. Most of Downriver goes to Dingell. Clarke picks up Highland Park, and has the only part of Downriver still in this district - Melvindale, Ecorse, and River Rouge which are all heavily minority.

Clarke picks up from McCotter Redford, Dearborn Heights, Westland, Garden City, and Wayne. He picks up Inkster, Romulus, and another part of Dearborn Heights from Dingell. All of those areas are blue sinks, and are gaining in minority population.

This and the 14th district are safest for democrats in Michigan.

Filing Deadline Passes - Preliminary Report (Unofficial) - Primary 2010

The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Today is the filing deadline for the 2010 primary. It was at 4PM. There may be some paperwork going between the clerks and the Secretary of State Office, but here's a presumptive list of who is in and out from the Secretary of State


The Gubernatorial Candidates are:
GOP - Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox, Tom George, Pete Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder. There was talk about a couple of other longshots, but it's not happening. The petition requirements was the first elimination bout.

DEM - Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero. Alma Wheeler Smith dropped out. Geoff Fieger said he wasn't running. No Bob Bowman or anybody else.

It's a two way primary for the dems and a five way primary for the GOP

I'll update the congressional districts again when I have a chance to list who is in/out. It looks like we'll be seeing:

1st District (MI-01) - Open seat
GOP - Six way primary between Jason Allen, Dan Benishek, Patrick Donlon, Linda Goldthorpe, Don Hooper, and Tom Stillings.

Dem - Gary McDowell. I don't see Matt Gillard there. If McDowell has a free pass, this could be trouble for us. Major coup for McDowell (who is Stupak's guy) if he avoids a primary.


2nd District (MI-02) - Open seat
GOP - Seven way primary between Bill Cooper, Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Chris Larson, Field Reichardt, Jay Riemersma, and Ted Schendel.

Dem - Primary between Fred Johnson and Nicolette McClure.

Interesting matchups for the primary here. Holland dominates the district for the GOP. Muskegon dominates for the dems, but no Muskegon democrat is running. All of the GOP candidates are from Holland except Bill Cooper (Muskegon County) and Ted Schendel from Benzie County. For the dems, Fred Johnson is from Holland and McClure is from Lake County.

3rd District (MI-03) - Open Seat

GOP - Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman, Steven Heacock, Louise Johnson, and Bob Overbeek

Dem - Paul Mayhue and Pat Miles

The interesting this here is does Grand Rapids follow the "It's his turn" format as it has done for years. It looks like the "his turn" views are split between Hardiman and Heacock. That leaves an opening for Amash who is the upstart who may cause an upset.

4th District (MI-04) - Incumbent Dave Camp

GOP - Dave Camp of Midland
Dem - Jerry Campbell of St Helen

5th District (MI-05 ) - Incumbent Dale Kildee
GOP - John Kupiec and Rick Wilson, both of Grand Blanc
Dem - Dale Kildee of Flint and Scott Withers of Vassar

I don't see how a primary challenge from Tuscola County will be a big threat to Kildee, who is probably the most popular pol in Flint. One thing to watch however is the UAW membership and their response to Obama's health care takeover. A lot of the retirees and workers are scared to death about the UAW putting them all on the government plan.

6th District (MI-06) - Incumbent Fred Upton

GOP - Jack Hoogendyk of Kalamazoo and Fred Upton of St Joe
Dem - Don Cooney of Kalamazoo

This will be interesting. Upton has had issues with his right flank in the past, and this is the year of the anti-incumbent as Bob Bennett in Utah showed. Jack Hoogendyk has a lot of grass roots support and may actually pull this off if he gets traction. Cooney is stronger than most democrats on the congressional level in this district. Don't sleep on him either.

7th District (MI-07) - Incumbent Mark Schauer

GOP - Marvin Carlson of Manchester, Brian Rooney of Dexter, and Tim Walberg of Tipton
Dem - Mark Schauer of Battle Creek

This is the best chance of a pickup among the GOP. Rooney just moved to the district, but does have an interesting background with pro-life organizations and backstory, the Steelers, and his Iraq service. Carlson is a businessman. Walberg is a conservative's conservative and has proven it over a period of years, and always gets more support than polling and finances suggest. Walberg did what no one has done yet, defeated Doug Spade. He would have won if the NRCC didn't abandon him in 08.

8th District - Incumbent Mike Rogers
GOP - Mike Rogers of Brighton/Howell
Dem - Kande Ngalamulume of Lansing

Blue Cross Kande vs Mike.

9th District - Incumbent Gary Peters

GOP - Anna Janek of West Bloomfield, Richard Kuhn of Waterford, Andrew Rocky Raczkowski of Farmington Hills, Paul Welday of Farmington Hills.

Dem - Gary Peters

This is our 2nd best shot for a pickup after the 7th. Peters is a 1st term incumbent who was a complete yesman without an original thought. What Pelosi wanted, Peters delivered, including Cap and Trade along with Obama's health care takeover in a district which was HQ for Chrysler, and has a GM plant.

10th District - Incumbent Candice Miller

GOP - Candice Miller of Harrison Township
Dem - Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights

11th District - Incumbent Thad McCotter
GOP - Thad McCotter of Livonia
Dem - Natalie Mosher of Canton

This is one to watch for defense purposes. McCotter had a tough go in 08, despite running way ahead of the top of the ticket.

12th District - Incumbent Sander Levin
GOP - Don Volaric of Clinton Township
Dem - Sander Levin or Royal Oak and Mickey Switalski of Roseville

This is interesting for two reasons. Levin has his toughest primary in ages. Switalski has won a ton of races in Macomb County. As Michigan lost a congressional seat, Levin's district had to be pushed further into Macomb County, which isn't his main territory. Can Volaric take advantage of that?

13th District - Incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
GOP - John Hauler of Grosse Pointe Woods
Dem - Vincent Brown of Garden City?(Garden City is in the 11th), Hansen Clarke, Stephen Hume, and Carolyn Kilpatrick, and Glenn Plummer of Detroit.

Kilpatrick is in big trouble this August. If it wasn't for straight ticket voting, I'd give Hauler a 35% shot in the general for "Bill Jefferson" reasons, but the straight ticket zombies who don't even read the ballot make it about a 5% shot for a pickup.

14th District - Incumbent John Conyers
GOP - Pauline Montie of Southgate
Dem - John Conyers of Detroit

I figured someone would take on Conyers in the primary after his wife making the news as a city councilcritter. The straight ticket zombies rule applies here too, as it does in the 13th district (and 5th, 12th, and 15th for that matter)

15th District - Incumbent John Dingell
GOP - Tony Amorose of Southgate, John Lynch of Ypsilanti, John Materyn of Brownstown Township, Majed Moughni of Dearborn, and Rob Steele of Ypsi
Dem - John Dingell of Dearborn.

I'm a bit surprised at a five way primary here. Maybe something is bursting in this district as blowback against the Ann Arbor leftists.

Closer to home in Livingston County, these are the presumed matchups:

State Senate 22nd District - Open
GOP - Joe Hune v Paul Rogers
Dem - Chuck Fellows

State Rep 47th District - Incumbent Cindy Denby
GOP - Cindy Denby
Dem - Garry Post

State Rep 66th District - Incumbent Bill Rogers
GOP - Bill Rogers
Dem - James Delcamp

County Commissioners
District 1 - All of Brighton Twp outside precinct 5, Hartland Twp 5 - Incumbent Maggie Jones
GOP - Maggie Jones and Nancy Hill
Dem - None

District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 - Incumbent Jim Mantey
GOP - Jim Mantey
Dem - Thomas Bell III

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5 - Incumbent Dave Domas
GOP - Dave Domas and Charlie Aberasturi
Dem - Dane Morris

District 4 - All of Handy, Iosco, and Unadilla Twp, Marion Twp 1, Howell Twp 3 - Incumbent Ronald Van Houten
Unopposed

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Open
GOP - Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Anne Lathrop
Dem - David Berry

District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12.
Incumbent - Steve Williams
GOP - Steve Williams
Dem - Keith Tianen

District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Incumbent Carol Griffith
GOP - Carol Griffith
Dem - Kelly Raskauskas

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Incumbent Dennis Dolan
GOP - Dennis Dolan
Dem - Amir Baghdadchi

District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Incumbent Jack LaBelle
GOP - Jack LaBelle
Dem - Barry McBride

Judges - No opposition.

I'll take a closer look at the county commissioner and local races as time goes by, but here's the unofficial final list after the filing deadline.

Michigan 13th district (MI-13) - Updated

Updated 8-4-2010 - Kwame's mom has been defeated. Hansen Clarke won the primary.

Michigan's 13th District - Congress

Incumbent - Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-Detroit)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 14
Cook District Numbers - D+31

GOP Candidate - John Hauler
Dem Candidates - Hansen Clarke

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 84%
McCain - 16%

2004:
Kerry - 81%
Bush - 19%

2000
Gore - 80%
Bush - 19%

This is one of two black majority "Voting Rights Act" districts in Michigan. The other one is the 14th district which is held by John Conyers. It covers about 1/2 of the City of Detroit, Ecorse, all of the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods, Lincoln Park, River Rouge, and Wyandotte.

This is generally the "east side" district and is represented by Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. Kilpatrick is in trouble, but it is in the primary election and not the general. She has some glaring weaknesses. In the Obama year in Obama's best city for votes, Kilpatrick was held to 74%, running 10% behind Obama. It probably would have been less if Michigan got rid of than damn straight ticket voting BS.

Kilpatrick lost the Grosse Pointes, which is not surprising, but she lost Wyandotte as well. Wyandotte is solidly democrat. Lincoln Park was close as well. Kilpatrick won the primary with less than 40% last time.I think she's toast this August unless the vote is split in the primary again.Hansen Clarke and Glenn Plummer are going to give it a go.

This is an 80%+ democrat district. Detroit itself is consistently 93% democrat - most in the entire country. I'm not going to number crunch this district. I'll get to the farm club here when I go over Wayne County in the county updates. There's only one competitive district here, and that is the 1st district state house, which covers the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods, and part of Detroit. The rest is all democrat strongholds.

Update 5-18-2010 - I think with the amount of candidates in the primary, Kilpatrick's chances are upgraded heavily. She barely survived a 3-way in 08. A 6-way race makes this likely easier unless none of the candidates get their campaigns off the ground.

Updated 8-4-2010 - Hansen Clarke defeated Kwame's mom. This one is over.