Thursday, August 12, 2010

Can a Democrat win in Livingston County?

I meant to comment on this editorial awhile back and never got around to it. Rich Perlberg wrote an editorial -
How Could a Republican Lose in Livingston County.

It's a rather snarky superficial article that tries to be sarcastic and deserves an eyeroll. I get that. He's trying to sell papers.

Reality - the answer to his title is yes, and so is the question on this blog. It can happen. It has happened, and was more comment in the early 90's and 80's. I'm not referring to RINO's or nonpartisan races either. Jim Blanchard won the county in 1986. Richard Austin and Frank Kelley won in 86 and I believe 1990. Jake Donahue won his county commissioner seat in the 90's. Putnam Township and Unadilla Township has elected several democrats over the years, and Lori Cowan and Kevin Dobis still have their seats. Green Oak went democrat in the 70's. Brighton Township even elected some in the past, and that's the most conservative part of the county today. Usually democrats win because of local foulups. Warning to Hamburg and Hartland.

Over in a Pennsylvania seat, Chris Carney in a seat as Repubican as Livingston County beat incumbent Don Sherwood. Sherwood deserved to lose because of his personal scandals, a real one, not some Judy Daubenmier drummed up BS. That's the easy way to lose.

Other than that, the best chance is for an arrogant Joe Schwarz clone running who is anti-life, anti-2nd Amendment, and for higher taxes and spending running against a democrat who gets the NRA and RTL endorsements.

I don't think a far left Ann Arbor liberal like Judy Daubenmier has a chance here. Someone like Matt Evans is a different story depending on the situation. Debby Buckland almost won Hamburg, and Evans ran ahead of the top of the ticket in Green Oak Township. Putnam and Unadilla Townships are always competitive.

I wrote up on the commissioner seats here when the filing happened. A farmer, a Jim Barcia type, or a blue dog has a shot in some of those districts. A Massachusetts or Ann Arbor democrat, less of a chance despite good campaign organization. There's four seats I'm watching. I think two of them are pipe dreams unless our guys screw up, despite the campaign organization of one of the two. Two other darkhorses will be tougher defenses IMO. They should all stay ours, even with the anti-incumbent moods overall.

As for the other races, Snyder will at worst in county, match Sue Munsell's 53% in 98 against Stabenow, and probably do better against Bernero who is weaker than Stabenow. How well Snyder improves on that depends on how much of the GOP base he wins over. (Still undecided myself).

Joe Hune and Bill Rogers should win easily. Cindy Denby is getting more of a challenge than expected, but I think that's a pipe dream for the democrats, more so after Hune's easy win.

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