I'm not sold yet on this being a 1994 type year, and I have an "I'll believe it when I see it" view on this poll, but I got this in an email.
If Election was held today:
John Dingell - 51%
Rob Steele - 42%
If those numbers are true, than this is a winnable district with the right turnout. I have heard of a lot of discontent though in this district, even in Ypsilanti of all places. Ypsi is the 2nd most democrat part of the district outside of Inkster. There was a five way primary for this seat. That alone tells me there is some discontent.
Again, I'll believe it with Dingell when I see it since this district is normally 62-38 at the top of the ticket. The only one to win it somewhat recently was Engler against Fieger. Is the anti-incumbency movement strong enough to beat the guy who always survives, and survived 1994 easily despite having a potentially competitive (in the right year) district in the 90's.
Rick Snyder may help in the Washtenaw County portion, although he could hurt the ticket downriver. Dr. Rob Steele is probably the best candidate Dingell's faced since 94.
Dingell's weakest numbers were in 94, 96, and 92. 59%, 62%, and 65%. The old district was strictly most of downriver and Monroe and going off memory, was I believe a 53% Gore district. The current district was 60% Gore.
It would take a Scott Brown type of effort to beat Dingell, a lot of hard work and a lot of help. I said that I'd believe Massachusetts would vote for a Republican Senator when I see it. I saw it.
Monroe County is winnable. Bush won it. Bush won Dearborn in 2000. I'll be shocked if Dingell loses there. That's his home. If Dr. Steele can do the impossible and cut his losses in Ypsi and Ann Arbor, while winning Monroe and Huron township and the Washtenaw townships big, and some of the more competitive areas downriver, it's possible. If, if, and if. If Scott Brown can somehow win Quincy...
In reality, this should be close, and polling now has it close for this district.