Don't compound a tactical error

I'm writing this based on the assumption that McCotter won't be on the August primary ballot. If there are enough signatures, then this is a moot point. As it looks based on speculation, the only name on the ballot for the republicans in the 11th District (MI-11) is Kerry Bentivolio

Assuming McCotter is gone, there's been a lot of push for write-ins. I think it's a bad move for a party to make here. By party, I am referring to NRCC, RNC, MIGOP, 11th District Committee, Oakland County Republican Party, and the Oakland County Republican Clubs. If McCotter campaign wants to go for a write-in fine. If Trott on his own wants to go for it, fine. If Kowall wants to go for it on his own, fine. That's their right as candidates. If individuals want to help them, fine.

If party wants to jump in and use party resources, then I have a problem. I do not see much good from a Republican Party operation jumping into a primary chasing a Hail Mary Pass that is likely unable to succeed. Even if it does succeed, it will create more bad blood between establishment and tea party that is not needed. If you want already sore tea parties to hold their nose and vote for their least favorite candidate running, don't piss them off even further. Stay out, and let the best candidate win.

I'm going to argue this from a nuts and bolts pragmatic perspective.

From a logistics standpoint, we had a somewhat similar situation in the 8th District on the democrat side in 2010. Kande Whatshisnamethequitter was running for the democrats to take on Mike Rogers. Sometime before the primary and after the filing deadline, he quit. Lance Enderle ran as a write in against the quitter.  Lance lost to the quitter in the primary. He did get 1703 votes, which isn't bad for a write-in. He eventually got on the ballot because Kande Whatshisname went back to the Philly suburbs. However, the quitter still got 23,228 votes. Granted Lance Enderle had little time for a campaign, but could even Dianne Byrum, Virg Bernero, David Hollister, or Gretchen Whitmer get 23,229 write-in votes? Maybe, but I'd be surprised. Personally, I thought it was impressive that Enderle got almost 10%.

If a quitter can get 23,228 votes in a primary by just having his name on the ballot, what does that say about Kerry Bentivolio's chances in the primary? Bentivolio is a stronger candidate than the quitter, and beat four other candidates in his 2010 race, although not Kowall. Bentivolio's not going to quit. He doesn't have a lot of money, but has some networks with Republican Liberty Caucus (I met him there back in 2010), some tea party groups, and Campaign for Liberty. He's a teacher and a military veteran of Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq. He'll get votes for that, along with the normal vote for whoever is on the ballot unopposed that many candidates get in primaries.

Can Trott get 25,000 write-in votes? I highly doubt it. Can McCotter or Kowall do it? Possible, but I still doubt it. In Michigan, you can't place stickers on the write in space for write ins. You have to spell out the name. McCotter isn't as tough of name to spell out as Rostenkowski, but you have to convince enough primary voters, after this blunder of epic proportions, to go into the booth, and spell out this name when there are other elections on the ballot. Even if one of them get 25,000 votes, it probably still won't be enough. That's just the minimum to have any chance.


In short, there's a very good chance if the parties get involved in this primary for write-ins, that the nominee from the 11th district will be.....Kerry Bentivolio - as it would likely be if the parties stayed out. Frankly, we can do a lot worse than that. I think he'll vote similar to Justin Amash. However, if Bentivolio wins, he'll need a lot of help raising money. That's the biggest reason why the party needs to stay out of the primary. The money spent in the primary needs to be spent in the general. Do you want Bentivolio in there, or Bill Roberts? I guarantee this much. Bentivolio won't back Pelosi as speaker or Conyers as judiciary chair.

Updates (Mackinac, 2012, other things)

I've been caught up in a few things, so I haven't been able to update.

1. The Mackinac Conference.

It was a good event, as it usually is. Pundits and Pollsters as always is my favorite panel. I was at the Rick Perry speech there. It went well. He needs to work on his debating skills in a big way as it hurt him a bit, but the stump speech was a good introduction to Michiganders. I think Perry has a good shot if he keeps the message to Texas vs most of the rest of the country in economics. That's his strength. 2012 election is about jobs.

Romney's biggest strength is campaign organization. He won the Mackinac Straw Poll largely because of that. He had the largest campaign presence on the island by far. It's not a surprise. Romney's organization is strong in 2008 as well.

The senate race is interesting. All the campaigns had some presence there, but some are more organized than others. I'm still undecided here. My vote will go to who I think has the best chance against Stabenow.

Pete Hoekstra had a speech and worked hard to get people there. What was interested about the people there is that many of them were on opposite sides in previous races, either with candidates or consultants. I was asked about five different times to show up there, and that is despite being a well known Mike Cox supporter from the gubernatorial election.

I had a brief chance to talk to Hoekstra about my two major concerns. One was TARP. He voted for it the 2nd time. He said that he made his decision based on local bankers in his district calling him up and telling him that he's seen nothing like that before and that something needed to be done. In hindsight, it may or may not have been the right decision, but we don't know what would have happened without the bailout. I don't agree with him there, but respect his answer. The other issue I had was comments about sales tax as a gubernatorial candidate. The timing of it aligned with the self proclaimed "Business leaders for Michigan" push to expand taxes to services. Another person later on said Hoekstra didn't support that plan, but supported Fairtax. I asked Hoekstra about the comments, and he said he supported the Fairtax on the state level. He has long supported it as a congressman at the federal level.

Clark Durant isn't well known, but he has spoken at a Livingston County GOP event several years back when Andy Anuzis was the chair. He's done a lot of work with charter schools and knows how to raise money. I'm interesting to see if he catches fire.

Gary Glenn is the head of Michigan's chapter of the American Family Association. If you haven't heard of him, you will. He's heavily involved in issues opposing gay marriage.

Peter Konetchy and Chuck Marino are both businessmen. I saw some campaign materials for both of them at Mackinac.

I'm undecided in who I support, except that it's going to be Stabenow's opponent.

Also, I found at Mackinac that incumbent and recent presidential candidate Thad McCotter will have a primary challenger if he runs for re-election, and it's going to be a serious one. State Senator Mike Kowall is taking him on and has a lot of prominent support in his county. MI-11 is more Oakland based than it was, so it could be interesting. McCotter is still very strong in Livonia. Kowall is strong in the Highland/White Lake area.

Away from Mackinac, the big news in 2012 is that Sarah Palin is not running. I'm not surprised at this. I think Palin lost any chance she had to win when she resigned as Alaska Governor. I think what she does best is rally the base on the speaker's circuit. I think she has a long career with her PAC and will be around for a long time.

Lastly, keep an eye on the Fast and Furious and Eric Holder. That scandal is picking up some legs. If this is true to any degree, some heads need to roll. That's another reason why the BATF needs to be disbanded. As far as Holder goes, he was Reno's top assistant during the Clinton years. He was bad news even back then.

State Senate Redistricting - District 15 (SD-15)

State Senate - District 15
Current Rep – Mike Kowall (R-White Lake)

2010 Results - Old District (15th)
Mike Kowall - 65,216
Pam Jackson - 39,233

This district is now less Republican because it had to contract in size due to population growth. Highland, Holly, and Rose Townships were given up to Dave Robertson. It still leans Republican, but could be future trouble in a bad year with the voting trends, 2010 not withstanding. West Bloomfield is a democrat stronghold. Wixom swings depending on turnout at the apartment complexes. Walled Lake is a swing area. Novi and Northville aren't as Republican as it used to be (some of the few ares where John Kerry outperformed Al Gore). Commerce Twp borders West Bloomfield. If migration patterns are similar as they used to be, then that will follow in its footsteps. White Lake, South Lyon, Lyon Township, and Milford are solidly republican and should keep this district in line as long as the candidates do not completely bomb in Novi like McCain did in 08. The two major keys here are the voting deficit in West Bloomfield and the numbers in Novi.

I don't see Kowall losing this district, but an open seat could be dangerous with a contentious primary. I'll be surprised if it flips, but a candidate can't get in the mode of "the primary is over, so is the election" with West Bloomfield here. The good news is that there's only one state rep district in this state senate district that's democrat. The bad news is that losing Highland and Rose Townships reduce the margin of error.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	11428	9900	21328	1528	53.58%	46.42%	7.16%
Lyon Twp	4130	3009	7139	1121	57.85%	42.15%	15.70%
Milford	5105	3851	8956	1254	57.00%	43.00%	14.00%
Northville	1127	1001	2128	126	52.96%	47.04%	5.92%
Novi	13264	14397	27661	-1133	47.95%	52.05%	-4.10%
Novi Twp	52	57	109	-5	47.71%	52.29%	-4.59%
Orchard Lake	821	648	1469	173	55.89%	44.11%	11.78%
South Lyon	2983	2712	5695	271	52.38%	47.62%	4.76%
Walled Lake	1517	1823	3340	-306	45.42%	54.58%	-9.16%
West Bloomfield Twp	13967	22730	36697	-8763	38.06%	61.94%	-23.88%
White Lake Twp	8563	7196	15759	1367	54.34%	45.66%	8.67%
Wixom	3077	3495	6572	-418	46.82%	53.18%	-6.36%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	66034	70819	136853	-4785	48.25%	51.75%	-3.50%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	12019	7838	19857	4181	60.53%	39.47%	21.06%
Lyon Twp	4082	2274	6356	1808	64.22%	35.78%	28.45%
Milford	5413	3252	8665	2161	62.47%	37.53%	24.94%
Northville	1269	866	2135	403	59.44%	40.56%	18.88%
Novi	14484	10612	25096	3872	57.71%	42.29%	15.43%
Novi Twp	67	40	107	27	62.62%	37.38%	25.23%
Orchard Lake	938	580	1518	358	61.79%	38.21%	23.58%
South Lyon	3191	2236	5427	955	58.80%	41.20%	17.60%
Walled Lake	1664	1580	3244	84	51.29%	48.71%	2.59%
West Bloomfield Twp	16150	20317	36467	-4167	44.29%	55.71%	-11.43%
White Lake Twp	9439	5821	15260	3618	61.85%	38.15%	23.71%
Wixom	3484	2552	6036	932	57.72%	42.28%	15.44%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	72200	57968	130168	14232	55.47%	44.53%	10.93%
Last St Senate	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	9650	4634	14284	5016	67.56%	32.44%	35.12%
Lyon Twp	3570	1389	4959	2181	71.99%	28.01%	43.98%
Milford	4608	1921	6529	2687	70.58%	29.42%	41.15%
Northville	1007	540	1547	467	65.09%	34.91%	30.19%
Novi	11277	6789	18066	4488	62.42%	37.58%	24.84%
Novi Twp	52	30	82	22	63.41%	36.59%	26.83%
Orchard Lake	755	297	1052	458	71.77%	28.23%	43.54%
South Lyon	2398	1167	3565	1231	67.27%	32.73%	34.53%
Walled Lake	1176	897	2073	279	56.73%	43.27%	13.46%
West Bloomfield Twp	11964	12892	24856	-928	48.13%	51.87%	-3.73%
White Lake Twp	7655	3196	10851	4459	70.55%	29.45%	41.09%
Wixom	2379	1445	3824	934	62.21%	37.79%	24.42%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	56491	35197	91688	21294	61.61%	38.39%	23.22%