Wednesday, September 05, 2012

MI-11 Special election - Bentivolio wins a close race

Based on what I see - I THINK Bentivolio is going to win the special election primary.

As of 8:56 Bentivolio is up in Oakland:

Kerry Bentivolio (REP)
51.04%1,327
Nancy Cassis (REP)
38.15%992
Kenneth Crider (REP)
2.46%64
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)
5.15%134
Steve King (REP)
2.85%74
WRITE-IN (REP)
0.35%9
2,600
How that's just the Oakland part and I've seen NOTHING at this point from Wayne County. That's 14 precincts reported, and 38 precincts partially reported in Oakland.

Looking at the geography, I have no doubt that Bentilvolio is winning Oakland. Cassis split in Novi and is doing well in the areas of Lyon Township and Commerce Township near Novi. Bentivolio is cleaning up Northern Oakland in a sweep. Most of what is to be reported here is in North Oakland.

I'm blind with Wayne County right now and that's the majority of the district. That's why I can't call it for Bentivolio with any confidence. Kavanagh is from Livonia. Novi borders Northville in Wayne County.

Turnout is about what I expect. Jack and squat. Jack left town. If McCotter's people didn't FUBAR the situation, this special wouldn't have needed to occur.

Update at 9:06



PercentVotes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)
47.58%1,944
Nancy Cassis (REP)
41.43%1,693
Kenneth Crider (REP)
2.30%94
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)
5.36%219
Steve King (REP)
2.94%120
WRITE-IN (REP)
0.39%16
4,086
Change no doubt to a small doubt.

Update 9:29 - Now it's real interesting.
 56 of 85 Precincts Reporting
PercentVotes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)
44.76%2,849
Nancy Cassis (REP)
43.14%2,746
Kenneth Crider (REP)
2.56%163
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)
6.06%386
Steve King (REP)
3.16%201
WRITE-IN (REP)
0.31%20
6,365


Novi is all in though. Commerce (some good Cassis and good Bentivolio areas) still has a lot to report. So does Highland (Bentivolio advantage) and White Lake (probably Bentivolio). I still haven't seen anything in Wayne County.

Update 9:35 - Finally something from Wayne County

Bentivolio is up about  600 votes in early returns in Wayne County. 

Looks good overall for Bentivolio,

Update 9:56 - Everything in Oakland is done outside of three precincts in White Lake.

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 11TH DISTRICT (Vote For 1)
82 of 85 Precincts Reporting
PercentVotes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)
43.76%3,573
Nancy Cassis (REP)
43.66%3,565
Kenneth Crider (REP)
2.76%225
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)
6.32%516
Steve King (REP)
3.25%265
WRITE-IN (REP)
0.26%21
8,165
This is going to be decided in Wayne County, and I just got some egg on my face from getting cocky after watching 14 precincts in, and underestimating Commerce Township. Nothing new in Wayne County, so it's about a 600 vote lead overall for Bentivolio.

Update 10:12 - Oakland is all reported.

85 of 85 Precincts Reporting
PercentVotes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)
43.79%3,659
Nancy Cassis (REP)
43.49%3,634
Kenneth Crider (REP)
2.81%235
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)
6.38%533
Steve King (REP)
3.26%272
WRITE-IN (REP)
0.26%22
8,355
REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 11TH DISTRICT (Vote For 1)
85 of 85 Precincts Reporting
PercentVotes
David A. Curson (DEM)
99.37%2,693
WRITE-IN (DEM)
0.63%17
2,710

Turnout was almost nothing.  6.93% Bentivolio was up about 600 in Wayne County last I checked. Wayne County is going to decide this one.

Update 10:29 - This one is PROBABLY over
85% in for Wayne County
Bentivolio - 5359
Cassis - 4131

The rest are back in the pack. Kavanagh, King, Crider, in that order. Curson has 7175 votes in Wayne County on the dem side. 

It's probably safe to call the primary for Bentivolio. With this low of turnout, I don't see Cassis making up 1200 votes with Oakland being nearly tied.

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