MI-11 Special election - Bentivolio wins a close race

Based on what I see - I THINK Bentivolio is going to win the special election primary.

As of 8:56 Bentivolio is up in Oakland:

Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		51.04%	1,327
Nancy Cassis (REP)		38.15%	992
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.46%	64
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		5.15%	134
Steve King (REP)		2.85%	74
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.35%	9
			2,600

How that's just the Oakland part and I've seen NOTHING at this point from Wayne County. That's 14 precincts reported, and 38 precincts partially reported in Oakland.

Looking at the geography, I have no doubt that Bentilvolio is winning Oakland. Cassis split in Novi and is doing well in the areas of Lyon Township and Commerce Township near Novi. Bentivolio is cleaning up Northern Oakland in a sweep. Most of what is to be reported here is in North Oakland.

I'm blind with Wayne County right now and that's the majority of the district. That's why I can't call it for Bentivolio with any confidence. Kavanagh is from Livonia. Novi borders Northville in Wayne County.

Turnout is about what I expect. Jack and squat. Jack left town. If McCotter's people didn't FUBAR the situation, this special wouldn't have needed to occur.

Update at 9:06

		Percent	Votes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		47.58%	1,944
Nancy Cassis (REP)		41.43%	1,693
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.30%	94
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		5.36%	219
Steve King (REP)		2.94%	120
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.39%	16
			4,086

Change no doubt to a small doubt.

Update 9:29 - Now it's real interesting.
 56 of 85 Precincts Reporting

		Percent	Votes
Kerry Bentivolio (REP)		44.76%	2,849
Nancy Cassis (REP)		43.14%	2,746
Kenneth Crider (REP)		2.56%	163
Carolyn Kavanagh (REP)		6.06%	386
Steve King (REP)		3.16%	201
WRITE-IN (REP)		0.31%	20
			6,365

Novi is all in though. Commerce (some good Cassis and good Bentivolio areas) still has a lot to report. So does Highland (Bentivolio advantage) and White Lake (probably Bentivolio). I still haven't seen anything in Wayne County.

Update 9:35 - Finally something from Wayne County

Bentivolio is up about  600 votes in early returns in Wayne County. 

Looks good overall for Bentivolio,

Update 9:56 - Everything in Oakland is done outside of three precincts in White Lake.

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 11TH DISTRICT (Vote For 1)	VIEW PRECINCT DETAIL     Vote type summary	Precinct Detail Map
82 of 85 Precincts Reporting
Percent Votes Kerry Bentivolio (REP) 43.76% 3,573 Nancy Cassis (REP) 43.66% 3,565 Kenneth Crider (REP) 2.76% 225 Carolyn Kavanagh (REP) 6.32% 516 Steve King (REP) 3.25% 265 WRITE-IN (REP) 0.26% 21 8,165

This is going to be decided in Wayne County, and I just got some egg on my face from getting cocky after watching 14 precincts in, and underestimating Commerce Township. Nothing new in Wayne County, so it's about a 600 vote lead overall for Bentivolio.

Update 10:12 - Oakland is all reported.

85 of 85 Precincts Reporting

Percent Votes Kerry Bentivolio (REP) 43.79% 3,659 Nancy Cassis (REP) 43.49% 3,634 Kenneth Crider (REP) 2.81% 235 Carolyn Kavanagh (REP) 6.38% 533 Steve King (REP) 3.26% 272 WRITE-IN (REP) 0.26% 22 8,355

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 11TH DISTRICT (Vote For 1)	VIEW PRECINCT DETAIL     Vote type summary	Precinct Detail Map
85 of 85 Precincts Reporting
Percent Votes David A. Curson (DEM) 99.37% 2,693 WRITE-IN (DEM) 0.63% 17 2,710

Turnout was almost nothing.  6.93% Bentivolio was up about 600 in Wayne County last I checked. Wayne County is going to decide this one.

Update 10:29 - This one is PROBABLY over
85% in for Wayne County
Bentivolio - 5359
Cassis - 4131

The rest are back in the pack. Kavanagh, King, Crider, in that order. Curson has 7175 votes in Wayne County on the dem side. 

It's probably safe to call the primary for Bentivolio. With this low of turnout, I don't see Cassis making up 1200 votes with Oakland being nearly tied.

MI-11 - Is this poll legit or does it matter?

I'm still skeptical about this. I think it will take at least 35,000 write-in votes to have a shot. If a quitter in MI-8 got 22,000 votes (in 2010) after announcing he's quitting over a write-in, It would take probably 35K to play ball, and Bentivolio's actually running a campaign. I don't like coronations so I hope Bentivolio wins. I think he'll hang on just because of the difficulty of a write-in election for a large office.

From the Free Press:

WASHINGTON –Winning a write-in campaign for a nomination to Congress is daunting, but former state Sen. Nancy Cassis appears to be heading in the right direction.
Cassis, of Novi, is leading her rival Kerry Bentivolio of Milford 52% to 36% in Tuesday’s Republican primary for the 11th Congressional idstrict, even though Bentivolio’s name is the only one on the ballot, a poll conducted for the Free Press, WXYX-TV (Channel 7) and three outstate stations shows.
Cassis was tapped by Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson and other local Republican leaders in June as the best candidate to run a write-in campaign against Bentivolio, a former teacher and reindeer rancher who has never been elected to public office.
Bentivolio got a leg up in the race when the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Livonia, dropped a write-in bid of his own after failing to make the ballot when his campaign submitted fradulent and duplicated signatures in support of his reelection effort.
The poll was done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing last Saturday and Sunday. It surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The thing with polls to remember are these.


1. Polls are at best a snapshot in time of the opinions of a good sample of the electorate. That's if they are done right. Early polls for November, I absolutely discount at this point because things change so often. Primary election polls are another matter.


2. Polls can be wrong, whether it be by sample, weight, or other matters. The rise of cell phones make things tougher, as does Caller ID. 


3. How do you poll a write-in? In most of Oakland County, there are other Republican races with a lot of hype as well. Townships, US Senate, Judicial. Is congressional at the top of the list? Maybe in Novi.


It'll be interesting to see what happens.

The latest chapter in the continuing misadventures of MI-11

There was talk about a special election not happening if only one person ran in each party. We all know how that was going to go. Nowhere. We know that because there's open warfare right now between the establishment in Oakland County and Kerry Bentivolio's campaign. Do you really think either of them was going to listen to the other? It's not going to happen. There will be a special election on September 5th.

Here's the latest with the time line.

August 7th - NEW MI-11. August Primary. On the ballot is Kerry Bentivolio for the GOP and a democrat primary between Syed Taj and Bill Roberts. There's a write-in campaign for Nancy Cassis.

September 5th - OLD MI-11 with the following candidates if their signatures are valid and accepted.
Dems:
David Curson. He wins and will be on the November ballot. He's from Belleville or Van Buren Twp.
GOP:
Kerry Bentivolio - The frontrunner for the new district.
Nancy Cassis - She's on the ballot this time.
Carolyn Kavanagh - Daughter of judge Sean Kavanagh. Lives in Livonia.
Kenneth Crider - Lives in Livonia, don't know anything about him.
Steve King - A RINO. Steve King ran as a democrat against John Walsh in 2008. He now calls himself a Milliken type. That's all I need to know. Bill Milliken sucked as governor and gave us the single business tax, as well as supported tax funded abortions. He also supported far leftists John Kerry, Granholm, and Obama. I'd vote Granholm over Milliken if I had to pick one with a gun to my head. King's a good musician, but at least run as a dem if that's what you are.

November 6th - Both the regular and special elections.
Regular election - NEW district - Will be between the winner of the primary between Taj and Roberts for the dems, and Bentivolio or write-in candidate for the GOP
Special Election - OLD district - Will be between David Curson and the GOP winner.

It is possible that we could have a two month congressman.

And all this could have been avoided if Thad McCotter, A - Got his signatures done properly, or B - served out his term without resigning.

McCotter resigns, MI-11 even more of a clustermuck

I would have posted this earlier, but July's my busiest month of the year during election season. This is unbelievable. As most know Thad McCotter resigned early. It caused Michigan even more of a mess. McCotter's early resignation got us stuck with a $650,000 bill. I wondered why there was even a special primary/general election set up this late in the season, but Michigan law conflicts with the feds here, and the feds win out. Under Michigan Law, elections are held four days a year. February, May, August primary and the November general. I mistakenly assumed that if there was a special, it would be simply a general with the August nominees in November. Well, we know what they say about the word assume. Ass. U. Me. (or to quote from Under Siege 2 - The mother of all F'ups) Wrong.

There's two special elections. The first is the Special Primary in of all times September 5th. The Special General is on the November election. The special election applies to the OLD 11th District, not the new one. So Westland for example will be voting in November for a two month term in the house in the 11th, as well as for the new term in the new district. I rarely agree with Jack Lessenberry, but he said it best.

This election is happening because the governor’s office determined reluctantly that they had to do this. Under our Federal Constitution, if a U.S. Senator resigns from office, the governor gets to appoint a replacement. Not so with House members, however. Ten years ago, an Ohio representative was expelled from Congress later in July, and the governor declined to hold an expensive election to replace him. The federal courts swiftly ruled that Ohio’s governor had violated the law. So Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, in charge while the governor is on vacation, decided Michigan had no choice. That’s sensible, but the requirement is crazy, true, if the same person wins the special election and the general, they will have a slight advantage in seniority, though hardly enough to matter.

I understand why Calley as Lt Governor called it. He wasn't happy about it, but he didn't want this in court. I think all the polls as well as the taxpayers would rather have this vacant, but it's not worth going to court over. I wish McCotter just stayed on till his term is up. I don't think in my 11 years of partisan political activity that I've ever seen anything remotely like the situation here in the 11th District. I feel bad for the non political staffers who had nothing to do with this, and are likely out of a job due to the work of some on the campaign staff. Here's a basic timeline for MI-11.

Present - Absentees are now out for the August Primary. Candidates are gathering signatures for the September Special Primary in the OLD 11th District.

August 7th - Normal August Primary. Kerry Bentivolio is on the ballot. Nancy Cassis is running as a write-in after McCotter was booted off the ballot for signature problems (to say the least). This is for the NEW 11th District.

September 5th - Special Primary. Candidates are gathering signatures for this primary. Both Bentivolio and Cassis are gathering signatures. I'm not sure the dems are trying for this. Those on the ballot will be the nominee for the special general election which covers the remaining portion of McCotter's term. This is in the OLD district.

 November 6th - General AND Special General. There will be TWO elections for the 11th District in this seat. The Special General is in the OLD 11th and will be for the two months of lame duck in the old McCotter term. The Regular General will cover the NEW 11th and will be the winners of the August Primary.

It is possible that Nancy Cassis becomes a two month Congresswoman. In fact, that wouldn't be all that shocking. It's also possible that Bentivolio wins both. I hope that does happen, because it would make a smoother transition. It's also possible that Glenn Anderson if he so chooses, could run for the special 11th (He lives in the district), win it (the old 11th is much more dem), and then if he upsets John Conyers in the primary, becomes the congressman in the 13th district. Once again, MI-11 is showing itself to be a major 2012 Cluster(m)uck with a capital F.

Ballot updates - Cassis is in as write-in, others off ballot

There's been updates on who is on the ballot.  From the Free Press

McCotter wasn't the only candidate with insufficient petition signatures. Also kept off ballots by the state Board of Canvassers on Wednesday were: U.S. Senate candidate Peter Konetchy, a Roscommon Republican; 7th Congressional District candidate Michael Stahly, a Potterville Republican, and 8th Congressional District candidate Michael Magdich, a Democrat from Whitmore Lake.

I'm sad to see Konetchy out. While I keep my blog and my business interests largely separate, Peter was one of my clients. He's a good guy and focused heavily on the constitution, limited government, and budgetary concerns. Unfortunately it was a skeleton crew campaign and there's only so much a few people can do. I haven't completely decided who I'm backing with him out, although I will not be supporting Gary Glenn at all. I won't go into the details, except to say that I'm not impressed with some of the behind the scenes campaign tactics used by some of his major pushers. This goes long before the past week. It's not about conservative views in this case, but tactics.

Magdich is out. That means there is only one guy running on the democrat side for the 8th district. Lance Enderle in a rematch. Lance will have more time to campaign this time. 

There's also a coronation attempt from 11 "leaders" in the 11th District. Also from The Free Press

Former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, a Novi Republican, is the consensus candidate among a group of 11 GOP leaders in Oakland and Wayne counties to run a write-in 11th district congressional campaign in wake of the botched effort to put U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter on the ballot.

Nothing against Cassis, but I hope no party resources are used by committees controlled by those leaders. If individuals are supporting Cassis, that's fine, but party resources should not be used in the primary. I think there's a very good chance that our nominee in the 11th district will be Kerry Bentivolio, if for no other reason, his name being on the ballot, and Cassis running as a write-in. Party resources should stay neutral in the primary, and be ready to go in the general for whoever the nominee is, be it Bentivolio or Cassis. It's going to take at least 25,000 write-ins just to be remotely considered, and I suspect the number to be closer to 40,000. If Cassis can get that, without official party resources, then I'll be impressed and she's earned it. She'll have to work 3-4 times as hard as Bentivolio to have a chance. 

Bentivolio's weakness is money. He doesn't have a lot and won't be getting much, since I think Oakland GOP is unofficially going to be pushing the money to Cassis. Brooks Patterson's comments made it clear. There's a way around that, although it's not an easy one. Bentivolio needs to get primary voter lists, and start hitting doors, doors, and doors. Joe Hune style. While I think Bentivolio is favored to win, he can't take this for granted either. Control what can be controlled and work from there.