Monday, October 08, 2012

More last minute 2012 - Absentee ballot is in, Romney not quitting, school board, proposals, judges

Back on the 25th of September, I thought we were done and going to get our asses kicked across the board like 1996. Not quite the 2008 levels, but bad. I was hearing a few things, and it wasn't good. I posted a blistering comment that asked if Romney was in or out.

From what I have heard, there were some conflicting camps. I know Romney has some campaign staff with strong MI ties. Others were yesmen to the overrated Karl Rove (Crossroads) and wanted to follow the lead of the Superpacs and follow a McCain and coward out. The last thing ANY campaign should do is follow the lead of a republican presidential campaign which lost Indiana at the same time Mitch Daniels won by 17%. When you quit states and don't compete, you have to run the table to win - and the other side plans accordingly.

Personally in the age of Direct TV, Cable, internet, TIVO, new media, cell phones, and high absentee voting, I'd be running campaigns a lot different these days than the old days. Part of it is in some ways going back to the real old small town days, at least in regards to signs.

The site 270 to win lists what their opinion are battle states, red states, and blue states. They list as follows:

Obama - 237, Romney 191, Up for grabs 110

Florida - 29
Ohio - 18
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Wisconsin - 10
Colorado - 9
Iowa - 6
Nevada - 6
New Hampshire - 4

That leaves little room for error. North Carolina and Florida are musts. Always have been and will be. That makes it 237-235. Obama's going all in for Virginia and Ohio. If he gets both, then Romney needs all of the rest. Good luck with that. Gore nearly did it in 2000, but most candidates don't run the table. If Romney gets both Ohio and Virginia (and NC and Florida), then Obama would have to run the table. Not going to likely happen.

If Obama and Romney split Ohio and Virginia, then those small states will make the difference. Whoever has Ohio has the easier road.

Romney Ohio not Virginia - 253, 17 to go from Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada/Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4). Wisconsin and Colorado are the biggest keys there. 

If Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, or New Mexico becomes up for grabs in the last week (as John Kerry had to campaign in Michigan in the last week), it could make things easier. If Michigan flips, so does Ohio, Florida, and possibly even Pennsylvania. Too many similar demographics. If Romney upsets Obama in Michigan or Pennsylvania, the election will be over.

I don't like the timeline for the move made by the Romney camp with absentees out last week (both my parents and I have ours from Genoa and Green Oak) because 34% of the vote is usually cast before election day. It's cutting it real close. However, I'm glad it's not later than it was. I'm probably turning my in tomorrow. I think Romney's camp started made a big move last week, similar to what I saw two weeks before the election in 04. The differences between 04 and now are this. Bush and Kerry made a bunch of moves in 04 with the big one two weeks out. Romney didn't make many if any moves before the last week. Romney's move was a big one, but he needs another one because he's climbing out of a bigger hole than Bush did in 04. In addition, Bush's opponent was a traitor. Obama's incompetent, arrogant, and the Peter Principle in Chief, but he wasn't with "The New Soldier" and call soldiers war criminals and Genghis Kahn like John Kerry did.  The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth won that election for Bush in 04. They won it by their ads and the Kerry senate speech.

It looks like Romney isn't going to coward out like McCain's campaign did. Paul Ryan just visited Oakland University. MIGOP just bought a bunch of signs now and I'm seeing them up at houses, some of which I haven't seen signs before, like in 04. It's a start. We know have a chance, which wasn't the case on September 25th.

That debate was huge. Obama looked like the arrogant, incompetent, smirking nose up in the air, jackass that he is. The Peter Principle in Chief. Romney stopped trying to worry about saying something that could offend people and just started being himself. He ran as a competent businessman. The big issue this year is the economy and jobs. Real jobs, not the fools gold green jobs that rich white progressives on the coasts try and push on real America. Obama's failed there, but of course it's never his fault. He always blames someone else and fails to man up.

The momentum is there. Mitt needs to go out and win this now instead of playing not to lose and prevent (from winning) defense.

My final decisions on the 2012 proposals.

1. Reluctant yes. I don't like either option between the new law and the old law. The new law is less worse than the old law.
2/3/4 - HELL NO.
6 - Reluctant No. I signed the petition (for turnout reasons), and I don't support tax money for a new bridge right now, but it's not something I think that needs to be put in the Constitution. I'm tempted to stick it to Rick Snyder, but don't want to use the Constitution to do that.

For school board:

Howell - Mike Moloney, Deb McCormick, Pat Howle

Brighton - Nick Fiani and Keith Van Hentenryk

Supreme Court - Stephen Markman, Brian Zahra, Colleen O'Brien. Big no to Bridget Mary McCormack who has never been a judge at any level.

Probate - I'm keeping this one quiet because I deal with estate planning which is in probate court. It's better for my clients this way unless a candidate which is running would be absolutely terrible and needs to be defeated. Both Miriam Cavanaugh (not the same family/spelling as the Supreme Court Justice) and Lori Marran have their strengths and backgrounds. Cavanaugh is an assistant prosecutor who works mostly in juvenile cases. Juvenile cases are usually handled in probate court in Livingston County. Marran is a referee and works heavily in family law. That's also a probate related area. I think both can do a good job as judge. My choice here is a vote for, and not a vote against. Perform your due diligence, do your research, and make your decision.

The other judicial races here are uncontested. Carol Sue Reader on the District Level and Mike Hatty on the Circuit Level.

Green Oak's getting the blank voting treatment from me outside of the non-incumbent trustee, Tuthill. I'm skipping those races. They are unopposed so it doesn't matter, but I'm tired of all the millages on the ballot here.

1 comment:

Countdown to November said...

There's no doubt that "whoever has Ohio has the easier road to victory", but nonetheless I'd still give President Obama the advantage at the outset given that he is both the incumbent and has a strong "Democratic Wall" of support. This has the effect of leaving fewer opportunities of attack open to Romney.

I've written a nice little piece about the electoral college count on my own blog covering what Romney should do to get himself over the victory line. In sum though, as Ohio goes, so goes the rest of the nation.