Thursday, January 07, 2010

Congressional District 5 (MI-05) Updated

Update - 5-18-2010 - Listed Candidates

Michigan's 5th District - Congress

Incumbent - Dale Kildee (D-Flint)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 34.
Cook District Numbers - D+11

GOP Candidates - John Kupiec of Grand Blanc
Dem Candidates - Dale Kildee

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 64%
McCain - 35%

2004:
Kerry – 59%
Bush - 41%

2000:
Gore 61%
Bush 37%




This was a gerrymandered district to keep Dale Kildee safe and to protect Mike Rogers, Candice Miller, Thad McCotter, and to buy time for Joe Knollenberg (I'll never understand putting Royal Oak in that district). Kildee's been around a long time and outside of 92-98, always got 60%+. In the 1990's, he was in a potentially competitive district that covered Flint, Burton, Davison, some other townships, part of Grand Blanc, Southern Lapeer County, and Northern Oakland County down to Pontiac. Kildee survived them, due to labor support, minority support (Flint and Pontiac), and pro-life support. Kldee got 54% in 92, 51% in 94, 59% in the democrat year of 96, 56% in 98, and 61% in 2000. Before and after that redistricting, he never had less than 67% of the vote (2004 was his worst showing outside of that period. I think Bush actually may have won the old 9th in 2004 (parts of the 5th, 8th 10th, maybe 11th). In this district, it's not close.

The post 2002 district isn't that large. It's a compact area of mostly democrats. That's its intent, and it delivered. The 5th District covers all of Genesee County and Tuscola County, along with Bay City, Bangor Twp, City of Essexville, Frankenlust Twp, Hampton Twp, Merritt Twp, part of Monitor Twp (minus precincts 3 and 5), and Portsmouth Twp in Bay County. In Saginaw County, it covers Birch Run Twp, Blumfield Twp, Buena Vista Twp, City of Frankenmuth, Frankenmuth Twp, City of Saginaw, Part of the City of Zilwaukee, and Zilwaukee Township. Genesee County is the 3rd most democrat county in the state behind Washtenaw's one-two punch of Ann Arbor and Ypsi, and Wayne County with the most democrat city in the entire country in Detroit.  (Usually the order is Wayne, Washtenaw, Genesee, Ingham, Muskegon, Gogebic, Bay, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, Isabella, Lake, Oakland, Arenac,) if you combine strength and consistency (last three presidential elections).

Southern Genesee County (Fenton, Grand Blanc) is competitive, as is sometimes the Flushing area. The Frankenmuth area is Republican. Tuscola County is competitive. Flint, Flint Twp, and it's Northern/Eastern suburbs are strongly democrat.Saginaw and Buena Vista are as democrat as Flint. Bay County is mostly democrat.

Kildee's been consistent in the new district. 67% was his low mark and 74% his high mark. He got 70% in 08, and those the the numbers I'll show. I broke up Genesee County to municipalities. Kildee get's Pete Hoekstra types of numbers. The only area he lost was Frankenmuth.


2008 Election
Sawicki
Kildee
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Bay County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bangor Twp
2,649
4,992
190
       7,831
-2343
33.83%
63.75%
-29.92%
Bay City
3,771
11,473
549
     15,793
-7702
23.88%
72.65%
-48.77%
City of Essexville
565
1,364
59
       1,988
-799
28.42%
68.61%
-40.19%
Frankenlust Twp
950
988
38
       1,976
-38
48.08%
50.00%
-1.92%
Hampton Twp
1,399
3,305
126
       4,830
-1906
28.96%
68.43%
-39.46%
Merritt Twp
272
524
17
         813
-252
33.46%
64.45%
-31.00%
Monitor twp (1)
118
325
11
         454
-207
25.99%
71.59%
-45.59%
Monitor twp (2)
499
841
30
       1,370
-342
36.42%
61.39%
-24.96%
Monitor Twp (4)
390
585
13
         988
-195
39.47%
59.21%
-19.74%
Monitor Twp (6)
284
464
13
         761
-180
37.32%
60.97%
-23.65%
Portsmouth Twp
527
1,335
38
       1,900
-808
27.74%
70.26%
-42.53%
Genesee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Argentine Twp
1,458
1,960
138
       3,556
-502
41.00%
55.12%
-14.12%
Atlas Twp
1,957
2,329
160
       4,446
-372
44.02%
52.38%
-8.37%
City of Burton
3,672
9,799
448
     13,919
-6127
26.38%
70.40%
-44.02%
Clayton Twp
1,494
2,734
154
       4,382
-1240
34.09%
62.39%
-28.30%
City of Clio
286
804
53
       1,143
-518
25.02%
70.34%
-45.32%
City of Davison
738
1,822
77
       2,637
-1084
27.99%
69.09%
-41.11%
Davison Twp
3,459
6,328
324
     10,111
-2869
34.21%
62.59%
-28.38%
City of Fenton
2,252
3,180
222
       5,654
-928
39.83%
56.24%
-16.41%
Fenton Twp
3,963
4,515
270
       8,748
-552
45.30%
51.61%
-6.31%
City of Flint
3,828
43,081
917
     47,826
-39253
8.00%
90.08%
-82.07%
Flint Twp
3,367
12,006
370
     15,743
-8639
21.39%
76.26%
-54.88%
City of Flushing
1,798
3,034
149
       4,981
-1236
36.10%
60.91%
-24.81%
Flushing Twp
2,231
3,773
154
       6,158
-1542
36.23%
61.27%
-25.04%
Forest Twp
852
1,633
99
       2,584
-781
32.97%
63.20%
-30.22%
Gaines Twp
1,321
2,383
128
       3,832
-1062
34.47%
62.19%
-27.71%
Genesee Twp
2,352
7,763
312
     10,427
-5411
22.56%
74.45%
-51.89%
City of Grand Blanc
1,614
2,574
133
       4,321
-960
37.35%
59.57%
-22.22%
Grand Blanc Twp
6,835
11,524
516
     18,875
-4689
36.21%
61.05%
-24.84%
City of Linden
950
1,128
79
       2,157
-178
44.04%
52.29%
-8.25%
City of Montrose
210
518
27
         755
-308
27.81%
68.61%
-40.79%
Montrose Twp
876
2,000
99
       2,975
-1124
29.45%
67.23%
-37.78%
City of Mt. Morris
277
986
35
       1,298
-709
21.34%
75.96%
-54.62%
Mt. Morris Twp
1,482
8,749
207
     10,438
-7267
14.20%
83.82%
-69.62%
Mundy Twp
2,854
5,318
216
       8,388
-2464
34.02%
63.40%
-29.38%
Richfield Twp
1,432
3,173
136
       4,741
-1741
30.20%
66.93%
-36.72%
City of Swartz Creek
968
2,205
107
       3,280
-1237
29.51%
67.23%
-37.71%
Thetford Twp
977
2,533
115
       3,625
-1556
26.95%
69.88%
-42.92%
Vienna Twp
1,956
4,673
187
       6,816
-2717
28.70%
68.56%
-39.86%
Saginaw County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Birch Run Twp
1,198
1,885
81
       3,164
-687
37.86%
59.58%
-21.71%
Blumfield Twp
641
516
22
       1,179
125
54.37%
43.77%
10.60%
Buena Vista Twp
390
3,826
55
       4,271
-3436
9.13%
89.58%
-80.45%
City of Frankenmuth
1,722
1,279
63
       3,064
443
56.20%
41.74%
14.46%
Frankenmuth Twp
738
483
26
       1,247
255
59.18%
38.73%
20.45%
City of Saginaw
3,104
18,834
501
     22,439
-15730
13.83%
83.93%
-70.10%
City of Zilwaukee
206
509
20
         735
-303
28.03%
69.25%
-41.22%
Zilwaukee Twp
18
22
0
           40
-4
45.00%
55.00%
-10.00%
Tuscola County
10,207
15,766
762
     26,735
-5559
38.18%
58.97%
-20.79%









Total
85,107
221,841
8,446
315,394
-136734
26.98%
70.34%
-43.35%


I'll also compare the high and low Presidential water marks of 04 and 08. Bush did fairly well for a Republican in this district keeping  it under 60% for Kerry.


2004 Election
Bush
Kerry
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Bay County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bangor Twp
3,779
4,233
77
       8,089
-454
46.72%
52.33%
-5.61%
Bay City
6,005
10,450
177
     16,632
-4445
36.11%
62.83%
-26.73%
City of Essexville
989
1,183
29
       2,201
-194
44.93%
53.75%
-8.81%
Frankenlust Twp
1,146
672
14
       1,832
474
62.55%
36.68%
25.87%
Hampton Twp
2,185
2,865
51
       5,101
-680
42.83%
56.17%
-13.33%
Merritt Twp
430
406
6
         842
24
51.07%
48.22%
2.85%
Monitor twp (1)
213
288
4
         505
-75
42.18%
57.03%
-14.85%
Monitor twp (2)
533
495
5
       1,033
38
51.60%
47.92%
3.68%
Monitor Twp (4)
342
291
8
         641
51
53.35%
45.40%
7.96%
Monitor Twp (6)
276
227
2
         505
49
54.65%
44.95%
9.70%
Portsmouth Twp
912
1,089
18
       2,019
-177
45.17%
53.94%
-8.77%
Genesee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Argentine Twp
1,981
1,483
38
       3,502
498
56.57%
42.35%
14.22%
Atlas Twp
2,606
1,704
35
       4,345
902
59.98%
39.22%
20.76%
City of Burton
5,829
8,304
87
     14,220
-2475
40.99%
58.40%
-17.41%
Clayton Twp
2,162
2,134
35
       4,331
28
49.92%
49.27%
0.65%
City of Clio
533
691
11
       1,235
-158
43.16%
55.95%
-12.79%
City of Davison
1,317
1,540
23
       2,880
-223
45.73%
53.47%
-7.74%
Davison Twp
4,833
5,041
79
       9,953
-208
48.56%
50.65%
-2.09%
City of Fenton
3,026
2,554
36
       5,616
472
53.88%
45.48%
8.40%
Fenton Twp
5,319
3,570
95
       8,984
1749
59.21%
39.74%
19.47%
City of Flint
7,558
38,395
255
     46,208
-30837
16.36%
83.09%
-66.74%
Flint Twp
5,747
10,071
108
     15,926
-4324
36.09%
63.24%
-27.15%
City of Flushing
2,694
2,457
36
       5,187
237
51.94%
47.37%
4.57%
Flushing Twp
3,298
2,849
46
       6,193
449
53.25%
46.00%
7.25%
Forest Twp
1,271
1,414
19
       2,704
-143
47.00%
52.29%
-5.29%
Gaines Twp
1,905
1,930
38
       3,873
-25
49.19%
49.83%
-0.65%
Genesee Twp
3,805
7,010
89
     10,904
-3205
34.90%
64.29%
-29.39%
City of Grand Blanc
2,394
1,985
54
       4,433
409
54.00%
44.78%
9.23%
Grand Blanc Twp
9,369
8,862
141
     18,372
507
51.00%
48.24%
2.76%
City of Linden
1,250
853
17
       2,120
397
58.96%
40.24%
18.73%
City of Montrose
349
451
10
         810
-102
43.09%
55.68%
-12.59%
Montrose Twp
1,365
1,643
20
       3,028
-278
45.08%
54.26%
-9.18%
City of Mt. Morris
479
906
12
       1,397
-427
34.29%
64.85%
-30.57%
Mt. Morris Twp
2,467
7,873
55
     10,395
-5406
23.73%
75.74%
-52.01%
Mundy Twp
3,999
4,102
73
       8,174
-103
48.92%
50.18%
-1.26%
Richfield Twp
2,149
2,630
35
       4,814
-481
44.64%
54.63%
-9.99%
City of Swartz Creek
1,459
1,753
27
       3,239
-294
45.04%
54.12%
-9.08%
Thetford Twp
1,611
2,246
31
       3,888
-635
41.44%
57.77%
-16.33%
Vienna Twp
3,083
3,851
48
       6,982
-768
44.16%
55.16%
-11.00%
Saginaw County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Birch Run Twp
1,761
1,487
28
       3,276
274
53.75%
45.39%
8.36%
Blumfield Twp
896
362
14
       1,272
534
70.44%
28.46%
41.98%
Buena Vista Twp
713
3,472
24
       4,209
-2759
16.94%
82.49%
-65.55%
City of Frankenmuth
2,337
861
22
       3,220
1476
72.58%
26.74%
45.84%
Frankenmuth Twp
989
310
4
       1,303
679
75.90%
23.79%
52.11%
City of Saginaw
5,800
16,992
161
     22,953
-11192
25.27%
74.03%
-48.76%
City of Zilwaukee
375
420
1
         796
-45
47.11%
52.76%
-5.65%
Zilwaukee Twp
36
17

           53
19
67.92%
32.08%
35.85%
Tuscola County
15,389
12,631
318
     28,338
2758
54.31%
44.57%
9.73%









Total
128,964
187,053
2,516
318,533
-58089
40.49%
58.72%
-18.24%

And 2008:


2008 Election
McCain
Obama
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Bay County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bangor Twp
3,539
4,559
144
       8,242
-1020
42.94%
55.31%
-12.38%
Bay City
5,276
10,819
351
     16,446
-5543
32.08%
65.78%
-33.70%
City of Essexville
800
1,233
41
       2,074
-433
38.57%
59.45%
-20.88%
Frankenlust Twp
1,213
834
31
       2,078
379
58.37%
40.13%
18.24%
Hampton Twp
2,014
2,991
93
       5,098
-977
39.51%
58.67%
-19.16%
Merritt Twp
416
437
8
         861
-21
48.32%
50.75%
-2.44%
Monitor twp (1)
289
428
12
         729
-139
39.64%
58.71%
-19.07%
Monitor twp (2)
676
744
17
       1,437
-68
47.04%
51.77%
-4.73%
Monitor Twp (4)
525
502
11
       1,038
23
50.58%
48.36%
2.22%
Monitor Twp (6)
379
411
9
         799
-32
47.43%
51.44%
-4.01%
Portsmouth Twp
855
1,108
25
       1,988
-253
43.01%
55.73%
-12.73%
Genesee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Argentine Twp
1,845
1,791
94
       3,730
54
49.46%
48.02%
1.45%
Atlas Twp
2,481
2,129
72
       4,682
352
52.99%
45.47%
7.52%
City of Burton
4,981
9,057
295
     14,333
-4076
34.75%
63.19%
-28.44%
Clayton Twp
2,035
2,385
104
       4,524
-350
44.98%
52.72%
-7.74%
City of Clio
384
761
22
       1,167
-377
32.90%
65.21%
-32.31%
City of Davison
1,053
1,625
59
       2,737
-572
38.47%
59.37%
-20.90%
Davison Twp
4,474
5,776
198
     10,448
-1302
42.82%
55.28%
-12.46%
City of Fenton
2,709
3,129
119
       5,957
-420
45.48%
52.53%
-7.05%
Fenton Twp
4,847
4,111
145
       9,103
736
53.25%
45.16%
8.09%
City of Flint
5,334
42,840
436
     48,610
-37506
10.97%
88.13%
-77.16%
Flint Twp
4,613
11,234
241
     16,088
-6621
28.67%
69.83%
-41.15%
City of Flushing
2,327
2,719
77
       5,123
-392
45.42%
53.07%
-7.65%
Flushing Twp
2,829
3,351
128
       6,308
-522
44.85%
53.12%
-8.28%
Forest Twp
1,089
1,516
60
       2,665
-427
40.86%
56.89%
-16.02%
Gaines Twp
1,790
2,078
80
       3,948
-288
45.34%
52.63%
-7.29%
Genesee Twp
3,313
7,148
199
     10,660
-3835
31.08%
67.05%
-35.98%
City of Grand Blanc
1,991
2,411
60
       4,462
-420
44.62%
54.03%
-9.41%
Grand Blanc Twp
8,309
10,951
285
     19,545
-2642
42.51%
56.03%
-13.52%
City of Linden
1,143
1,082
39
       2,264
61
50.49%
47.79%
2.69%
City of Montrose
296
471
15
         782
-175
37.85%
60.23%
-22.38%
Montrose Twp
1,201
1,796
77
       3,074
-595
39.07%
58.43%
-19.36%
City of Mt. Morris
387
938
25
       1,350
-551
28.67%
69.48%
-40.81%
Mt. Morris Twp
2,052
8,454
103
     10,609
-6402
19.34%
79.69%
-60.34%
Mundy Twp
3,688
4,807
175
       8,670
-1119
42.54%
55.44%
-12.91%
Richfield Twp
1,911
2,890
97
       4,898
-979
39.02%
59.00%
-19.99%
City of Swartz Creek
1,294
1,988
47
       3,329
-694
38.87%
59.72%
-20.85%
Thetford Twp
1,360
2,314
81
       3,755
-954
36.22%
61.62%
-25.41%
Vienna Twp
2,715
4,175
138
       7,028
-1460
38.63%
59.41%
-20.77%
Saginaw County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Birch Run Twp
1,659
1,581
58
       3,298
78
50.30%
47.94%
2.37%
Blumfield Twp
850
358
24
       1,232
492
68.99%
29.06%
39.94%
Buena Vista Twp
562
3,813
21
       4,396
-3251
12.78%
86.74%
-73.95%
City of Frankenmuth
2,163
1,001
28
       3,192
1162
67.76%
31.36%
36.40%
Frankenmuth Twp
942
343
16
       1,301
599
72.41%
26.36%
46.04%
City of Saginaw
4,419
18,591
286
     23,296
-14172
18.97%
79.80%
-60.83%
City of Zilwaukee
320
420
12
         752
-100
42.55%
55.85%
-13.30%
Zilwaukee Twp
23
22

           45
1
51.11%
48.89%
2.22%
Tuscola County
13,740
13,503
563
     27,806
237
49.41%
48.56%
0.85%









Total
113,111
207,625
5,221
325,957
-94514
34.70%
63.70%
-29.00%


Obama biggest strength was in cities with large black populations and college towns (and McCain). Flint has both. Mt. Morris, Genesee Twp, Flint Twp (to a lesser extent), Saginaw and Buena Vista all have large black populations as well.

Comparing by area.

Tuscola County  (Thumb County, populist)
2004 - Bush 54.31%, Kerry 44.57%, 2758 vote spread. 28338 votes
2008 - McCain  49.41%, Obama 48.56%, 257 vote spread. 27806 votes

Bay County (Mostly Bay City area, populist and democrat)
2004 - Kerry 56.34%, Bush 42.66% -5389 vote spread, 39,400 votes
2008 - Obama 59.00%, McCain 39.18% -8084 vote spread. 40,790 votes

Saginaw County (Mostly the City and Buena Vista.  Birch run, Blumfield, and Frankenmuth reduces democrat percentage slightly)
2004 - Kerry 64.51%, Bush 34.81% -11014 vote spread, 37082 votes
2008 - Obama 69.66%, McCain 29.16% -15191 vote spread, 37512 votes

Flint (Self explanatory)
2004 - Kerry 83.09%, Bush 16.36%,  -30837 vote spread. 46,208 votes
2008 - Obama 88.13%, McCain 10.97% -  37506 vote spread, 48,610 votes

As for the suburbs, I haven't spent a lot of time in Genesee County or Shiawassee County as I do the other neighbors. I don't know all the classifications, so I'll list what's included where in the descriptions.

Western Genesee (Clayton, Swartz Creek, Flint Twp, Flushing Twp, Flushing)
2004 - Kerry 55.24%, Bush 44.04%, -3904 vote spread, 34876 votes
2008 - Obama 61.28%, McCain 37.03%, -8579 vote spread, 35372 votes

Southern Genesee (Argentine, Fenton, Linden Gaines, Mundy, Grand Blanc, Atlas - Competitive)
2004 -  Bush 53.60%, Kerry 45.51%, 4806 vote spread, 59,419 votes
 2008 - Obama 53.10%, McCain 46.19% -3686 vote spread, 62361 votes

Eastern Genesee (Burton/Davison, Richfield, Forest)
2004 - Kerry 54.75%, Bush 44.54%, -3530 vote spread, 34571 votes
2008 - Obama 59.41%, McCain 38.51%, -7356 vote spread, 35081 votes

Northern Genesee (Montrose, Mt. Morris, Vienna, Thetford, Clio, Genesee)
2004 - Kerry 63.85%, Bush 35.44% -10979 vote spread, 38639 votes
2008 - Obama 67.81%, McCain 30.47% -14349 vote spread, 38425 votes.

While the district is almost impossible for a Republican to win, some sections are winnable. Winning those sections are necessary to win statewide. Tuscola County and Southern Genesee County need to be won. Western and Eastern needs to be narrow losses or better yet, won. The losses elsewhere need to be reduced. 

The farm club here as expected favors the democrats. The GOP has some representation, mostly from districts based outside the 5th. It may factor in depending what happens with redistricting, most notably to Tuscola County, Frankenmuth, Grand Blanc, and Fenton.

St. Senate 32nd - Covers Saginaw and Gratiot Counties. This is a seat almost everybody expected to go democrat in 2006. Mike Goschka had a lot of cross party support and used it to win a similar district in 1998 and won the current district in 2002 relatively easily against former St Rep Mike Hanley. 2006 was open, and Roger Kahn won because of his victory spread in Gratiot County was larger than his defeat in Saginaw County. Both counties were close and the final number was 450 votes.


St Senate 32nd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Kahn/Williams
45,781
45,331
2305
     93,417
450
49.01%
48.53%
0.48%
02 - Goschka/Hanley
45,338
37,668

     83,006
7670
54.62%
45.38%
9.24%

St. Senate 31 - Arenac, Bay, Huron, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. Only part of Bay County and Tuscola County is in the district. Jim Barcia I believe is from Bay City, and represented much of the 5th when he was in congress. If Kildee retires, Barcia will be a frontrunning. This seat is open and should be a barnburner for election.


St Senate 31st
GOP
Dem
3rd Party





06 - Nuncio/Barcia
23,569
78,923
1441
   103,933
-55354
22.68%
75.94%
-53.26%
02 - Green/Barcia
35,486
54,352

     89,838
-18866
39.50%
60.50%
-21.00%


St Senate 27 - Argentine Twp, Clayton Twp, City of Fenton, Fenton Twp, City of Flint, Flint Twp, City of Flushing, Flushing Twp, Gaines Twp, Genesee Twp, City of Linden, City of Montrose, Montrose Twp, Mundy Twp, and the City of Swartz Creek in Genesee County. This is a solid democrat district thanks to Flint (city and Twp and Genesee Twp. It is the most democrat State Senate district in the district. John Gleason is a moderate democrat who won the open seat replacing Bob Emerson.


St Senate 27th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Longlois/Gleason
71704
22804

     94,508
48900
75.87%
24.13%
51.74%
02 - O'Lear/Emerson
26699
52019

     78,718
-25320
33.92%
66.08%
-32.17%


St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated  as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.


St Senate 26th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Seiferlein/Cherry
41445
65771

   107,216
-24326
38.66%
61.34%
-22.69%
02 - Muller/Cherry
37852
47848

     85,700
-9996
44.17%
55.83%
-11.66%



St  Rep 98th - Covers Homer Twp, Ingersoll Twp, City of Midland, Midland Twp, and Mount Haley Twp in Midland County. Covers Brady Twp, Brant Twp, Carrollton Twp, Chapin Twp, Fremont Twp, Jonesfield Twp, Kochvlle Twp, Lakefield Twp, Marion Twp, Richland Twp, Tittabawassee Twp, Zilwaukee City and Twp. It was an open seat in 2008 and Jim Stamas and a tough but solid win over Garnet Lewis.Zilwaukee is in the 5th district.


St Rep 98th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - J.Stamas/Lewis
25,980
18,781
2
     44,763
7199
58.04%
41.96%
16.08%
06 - Moolenaar/Sutherland
21,566
13,558

     35,124
8008
61.40%
38.60%
22.80%
04 - Moolenaar/Jones
28,431
15,057

     43,488
13374
65.38%
34.62%
30.75%
02 - Moolenaar/Lefevre
19,423
11,110

     30,533
8313
63.61%
36.39%
27.23%


St Rep 96th - Cities of Auburn, Bay City, Essexville, and Midland (precinct 1). Bangor, Beaver, Frankenlust, Hampton, Merritt, Monitor, Portsmouth, and Williams Township.

Most of this district is in the 5th district, including Bay City. Auburn, the Midland portion, two precincts of Monitor Township, Portsmouth, and Williams Townships are in the 1st.  Jeff Mayes, the incumbent, is from Bangor Township which is in the 5th District. This is not a liberal district, but it is a democrat district. Pro-life and pro-gun democrats are very common here.


St Rep 96th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Rau/Mayes
13,950
32,208

     46,158
-18258
30.22%
69.78%
-39.56%
06 - Schaefer/Mayes
9,858
27,199

     37,057
-17341
26.60%
73.40%
-46.80%
04 - Goss/Mayes
16,790
29,305

     46,095
-12515
36.42%
63.58%
-27.15%
02 - Begick/Rivet
12,032
21,126

     33,158
-9094
36.29%
63.71%
-27.43%


State Rep 95th - Covers Bridgeport Twp, Buena Vista Twp, the City of Saginaw, and Spaulding Twp. This is the main democrat district in Saginaw County. Most of it is in the 5th district. It is anchored by the City of Saginaw, although Buena Vista Twp is actually more democrat. It is probably about 50% minority. It is represented by Andy Coulouris who won an open seat in 2006 vacated by Carl Williams who ran for state senate.


St Rep 95th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Rosingana/Coulouris
4,450
28,334

     32,784
-23884
13.57%
86.43%
-72.85%
06 - Wilson/Coulouris
4,329
18,987
11
     23,327
-14658
18.56%
81.39%
-62.84%
04 - Wendt/Williams
7,366
25,233

     32,599
-17867
22.60%
77.40%
-54.81%
02 - Howe/Williams
6,042
16,987

     23,029
-10945
26.24%
73.76%
-47.53%


State Rep 94th - Covers Albee Twp, Birch Run Twp, Blumfield Twp, Chesaning Twp, City of Frankenmuth, Frankenmuth Twp, James Twp, Maple Grove Twp, Saginaw Twp, St Charles Twp, Swan Creek Twp, Taymouth Twp, and Thomas Twp in Saginaw County. It is a competitive district that has been GOP since Jim Howell won it in the late 90's. Most of this district is in the 4th, outside of Birch Run, Blumfield, and Frankenmuth that is in Kildee's district. Frankenmuth is the most Republican part of the county, and helps counterbalance Albee, Taymouth, Maple Grove, and Chesaning.

St Rep 94th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Horn/Blaine
28,451
20,890

     49,341
7561
57.66%
42.34%
15.32%
06 - Horn/Blaine
21,106
18,604

     39,710
2502
53.15%
46.85%
6.30%
04 - Kahn/Muter
28,925
20,061

     48,986
8864
59.05%
40.95%
18.09%
02 - Howell/Braun
20,757
15,020
320
     36,097
5737
57.50%
41.61%
15.89%


St. House 84th - Covers Huron and Tuscola Counties. This is a competitive district in the thumb. It was Mike Green's district, then Tom Meyer's district. Meyer narrowly won in 2002 as an incumbent. Terry Brown then won the district as an open seat. This is a seat that will need to be picked up for the GOP to retake the Michigan House.


St Rep 84th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Kabot/Brown
15,321
28,192

     43,513
-12871
35.21%
64.79%
-29.58%
06 - Hunt/Brown
17,374
18,422

     35,796
-1048
48.54%
51.46%
-2.93%
04 - Meyer/Montle
27,917
15,183
783
     43,883
12734
63.62%
34.60%
29.02%
02 - Meyer/Kern
16,905
13,784
325
     31,014
3121
54.51%
44.44%
10.06%


St. House 51st - Covers Argentine Twp, Atlas Twp, City of Fenton, Fenton Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Linden, and Mundy Twp in Genesee County. This is a district where the GOP has won the last four races, but by the skin of their teeth. Dave Robertson won the new seat after redistricting against incumbent democrat Patricia Lockwood. He held on for two more terms and is running for state senate. Paul Scott in somewhat of an upset, won the open seat in 2008. This is a seat that needs to be kept if the GOP will keep the house


St Rep 51st
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Scott/Thorpe
29,921
26,587

     56,508
3334
52.95%
47.05%
5.90%
06 - Robertson/Starzyk
21,812
21,125

     42,937
687
50.80%
49.20%
1.60%
04 - Robertson/Robinson
28,798
23,951

     52,749
4847
54.59%
45.41%
9.19%
02 - Julian/Kregger
16,675
16,169
549
     33,393
506
49.94%
48.42%
1.52%


St. House 50th - Covers the city of Burton, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Genesee Twp, and Richfield Twp. This is Michael Moore's home district. Davison. It's strongly democrat, anchored by Burton and Genesee Twp. All the areas have some democrat leanings, some more than others. Jim Slezak defeated incumbent Ted Hammon in the primary of 08.


St Rep 50th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - O'Neal/Slezak
11,290
29,792
32
     41,114
-18502
27.46%
72.46%
-45.00%
06 - Fortner/Hammon
11,126
20,260

     31,386
-9134
35.45%
64.55%
-29.10%
04 - Fortner/Zelenko
14,380
26,427

     40,807
-12047
35.24%
64.76%
-29.52%
02 - Brang/Zelenko
8,131
17,121

     25,252
-8990
32.20%
67.80%
-35.60%


St. House 49th - Covers part of Clayton Twp, part of the City of Flint, Flint Twp, Gaines Twp, and the City of Swartz Creek in Genesee County. It's the "whiter" district of Flint (to comply with voting rights act and minority representation).It's solidly democrat, and opens up in 2010. I'd rather have it be someone similar to Gonzales than a Jack Minore clone.


St Rep 49th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Gonzales
0
32,653
1
     32,654
-32653
0.00%
100.00%
-100.00%
06 - Kelly/Gonzales
7,458
22,650

     30,108
-15192
24.77%
75.23%
-50.46%
04 - Parks/Gonzales
11,555
26,865

     38,420
-15310
30.08%
69.92%
-39.85%
02 - Garner/Minore
7,844
17,860

     25,704
-10016
30.52%
69.48%
-38.97%




St. House 48th - Covers part of Clayton Twp, City of Clio, City of Flushing, Flushing Twp, Forest Twp, City of Montrose, Montrose Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt. Morris Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. This is a solidly democrat district. Two words. Mt. Morris. Richard Hammel is the incumbent.


St Rep 48th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Burger/Hammel
13,703
28,251

     41,954
-14548
32.66%
67.34%
-34.68%
06 - Whitehead/Hammel
10,711
22,175

     32,886
-11464
32.57%
67.43%
-34.86%
04 - Wenk/Gleason
11,506
30,834

     42,340
-19328
27.18%
72.82%
-45.65%
02 - Gardner/Gleason
8,720
19,600

     28,320
-10880
30.79%
69.21%
-38.42%


St House 34th - Part of the City of Flint. This is a black majority district and thus, one of the most democrat in the state. Irony is that 08 was the "worst" state rep democrat showing despite Obama. That's because Woodrow Stanley, the incumbent, has some stronger negatives than Brenda Clack. He was recalled as Flint mayor back in 2002, not that the white guy Don Williamson (now running for governor) was any better. Ford got some of the anti-Stanley vote, although straight tickets dominate the district.


St Rep 34th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Ford/Stanley
4,973
26,867

     31,840
-21894
15.62%
84.38%
-68.76%
06 - Arnott/Clack
1,946
18,457

     20,403
-16511
9.54%
90.46%
-80.92%
04 - Mays/Clack
3,407
26,658

     30,065
-23251
11.33%
88.67%
-77.34%
02 - Willis/Clack
2,273
16,038

     18,311
-13765
12.41%
87.59%
-75.17%

The 5th district is solidly democrat due to Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. Kildee has the seat as long as he wants it. The question is who replaces him when he steps down. I think Barcia is the likely choice as he was formerly in congress, although Gleason is very strong as well. The best Republicans can likely do here barring a Joseph Cao surprise is to reduce the margins, and pick off a couple of state rep and state senate seats. That certainly is in the realm of possibility. Redistricting will be interesting with this district a well.

Update 5-18-2010
Dale Kildee has a primary challenge from Scott Withers in Tuscola County. Withers is making this issue about abortion as Kildee isn't pro-abortion enough for him. I don't see this getting traction with Kildee's union support and Flint area base.

2 comments:

Steve Benson said...

Your first mention says Dale Camp instead of Kildee.

Republican Michigander said...

Thanks for mentioned it. Copy/Paste error. I fixed it.