Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Congressional District 5 - Redistricted (MI-05)

Incumbent - Dale Kildee (D-Flint) - RETIRING in 2012
Years in office as of 2012 election - 36.
The old 5th District information is here

Challengers - Daniel Kildee (D-Flint Twp), Jim Slezak (R-Davison)

Update -5-16-2012 - The dems caught a break here by having no primary. With the wrong candidate for them, this could end up have been a competitive race with a party switching labor-moderate like Slezak. I was hoping that Don Williamson or Woodrow Stanley would have filed. Kildee is Dale's nephew, but like in Bill Rogers case in HD-66/(now HD-42) had some elective experience of his own as Genesee County treasurer.

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This district had to expand due to population losses. It is now largely a combination of the old 5th District, along with most of the 1990's era Jim Barcia district. In fact, Barcia will likely have an easy win in this district if he runs for it when Kildee steps down. Kildee will be 83 years old at the next election.

The only thing Kildee loses here is a small part of Tuscola County in the thumb, which is added to Candice Miller's district. Miller has most of the thumb already. Kildee takes from Benishek the slightly democrat leaning areas of Northern Bay County, Iosco County, and Arenac County. Those areas are open to voting for any party candidate. They are social conservative (pro-life, pro 2nd Amendment) areas, but also support labor. Many are UAW retirees, UAW commuters, or corrections workers. A lot of the democrats who win there are Jim Barcia types, not Ann Arbor types.

The partisan numbers here are about the same. Kildee lost Tuscola County bad in 2010, and nearly lost Bay County. Tuscola County is competitive, but sometimes goes big for Republicans. A democrat getting less than 50% in Bay County (including 3rd party votes) is an aberration that can't be counted on. It does show strength for John Kupiec, beyond his home area (Fenton/Grand Blanc). Some Republicans have done very well here on the state level winning districts multiple times that they shouldn't have won on paper. Joel Gougeon countywide in Bay County, and Mike Gocshka countywide in Saginaw County.

The old spread was about 58000 for Bush and 95000 for Obama. The new spread was about 61000 for Kerry and about 101000 for Obama.

Here's the numbers. Genesee County is still the base of this district.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Arenac County 3807 4155 7962 -348 47.81% 52.19% -4.37%
Bay County 23795 32589 56384 -8794 42.20% 57.80% -15.60%
Genesee County 72451 143927 216378 -71476 33.48% 66.52% -33.03%
Iosco County 6583 7309 13892 -726 47.39% 52.61% -5.23%
Tuscola County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Arbela Twp 722 842 1564 -120 46.16% 53.84% -7.67%
Denmark Twp 1086 615 1701 471 63.84% 36.16% 27.69%
Gilford Twp 246 177 423 69 58.16% 41.84% 16.31%
Millington Twp 1083 1182 2265 -99 47.81% 52.19% -4.37%
Tuscola Twp 665 428 1093 237 60.84% 39.16% 21.68%
Vassar City 556 658 1214 -102 45.80% 54.20% -8.40%
Vassar Twp (part) 874 966 1840 -92 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Saginaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blumfield Twp 850 358 1208 492 70.36% 29.64% 40.73%
Bridgeport Twp 1916 3595 5511 -1679 34.77% 65.23% -30.47%
Buena Vista Twp 562 3813 4375 -3251 12.85% 87.15% -74.31%
Carrollton Twp 1065 1866 2931 -801 36.34% 63.66% -27.33%
Saginaw City 4419 18591 23010 -14172 19.20% 80.80% -61.59%
Saginaw Twp(part) 11368 11944 23312 -576 48.76% 51.24% -2.47%
Spaulding Twp 454 658 1112 -204 40.83% 59.17% -18.35%
Zilwaukee City 384 501 885 -117 43.39% 56.61% -13.22%
Zilwaukee Twp 23 22 45 1 51.11% 48.89% 2.22%
Total 132909 234196 367105 -101287 36.20% 63.80% -27.59%








2004







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Arenac County 4071 4076 8147 -5 49.97% 50.03% -0.06%
Bay County 25439 31032 56471 -5593 45.05% 54.95% -9.90%
Genesee County 83870 128334 212204 -44464 39.52% 60.48% -20.95%
Iosco County 7301 6557 13858 744 52.68% 47.32% 5.37%
Tuscola County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Arbela Twp 771 831 1602 -60 48.13% 51.87% -3.75%
Denmark Twp 1190 606 1796 584 66.26% 33.74% 32.52%
Gilford Twp 262 167 429 95 61.07% 38.93% 22.14%
Millington Twp 1270 1131 2401 139 52.89% 47.11% 5.79%
Tuscola Twp 776 398 1174 378 66.10% 33.90% 32.20%
Vassar City 632 567 1199 65 52.71% 47.29% 5.42%
Vassar Twp (part) 913 888 1801 25 50.69% 49.31% 1.39%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Saginaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blumfield Twp 896 362 1258 534 71.22% 28.78% 42.45%
Bridgeport Twp 2103 3474 5577 -1371 37.71% 62.29% -24.58%
Buena Vista Twp 713 3472 4185 -2759 17.04% 82.96% -65.93%
Carrollton Twp 1277 1730 3007 -453 42.47% 57.53% -15.06%
Saginaw City 5800 16992 22792 -11192 25.45% 74.55% -49.10%
Saginaw Twp(part) 12387 10810 23197 1577 53.40% 46.60% 6.80%
Spaulding Twp 491 669 1160 -178 42.33% 57.67% -15.34%
Zilwaukee City 452 505 957 -53 47.23% 52.77% -5.54%
Zilwaukee Twp 36 17 53 19 67.92% 32.08% 35.85%
Total 150650 212618 363268 -61968 41.47% 58.53% -17.06%








2010







Kupiec Kildee Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Arenac County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bay County 12933 13622 26555 -689 48.70% 51.30% -2.59%
Genesee County 57443 73113 130556 -15670 44.00% 56.00% -12.00%
Iosco County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Tuscola County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Arbela Twp 546 456 1002 90 54.49% 45.51% 8.98%
Denmark Twp 922 351 1273 571 72.43% 27.57% 44.85%
Gilford Twp 211 77 288 134 73.26% 26.74% 46.53%
Millington Twp 903 576 1479 327 61.05% 38.95% 22.11%
Tuscola Twp 570 229 799 341 71.34% 28.66% 42.68%
Vassar City 452 308 760 144 59.47% 40.53% 18.95%
Vassar Twp (part) 664 399 1063 265 62.46% 37.54% 24.93%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Saginaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blumfield Twp 729 208 937 521 77.80% 22.20% 55.60%
Bridgeport Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Buena Vista Twp 378 2114 2492 -1736 15.17% 84.83% -69.66%
Carrollton Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Saginaw City 2866 9531 12397 -6665 23.12% 76.88% -53.76%
Saginaw Twp(part)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Spaulding Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Zilwaukee City 238 262 500 -24 47.60% 52.40% -4.80%
Zilwaukee Twp 18 15 33 3 54.55% 45.45% 9.09%
Total 78873 101261 180134 -22388 43.79% 56.21% -12.43%

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