Congressional District 13 (MI-13) - Updated

Update 2014 - Conyers is running again and facing Horace Sheffield in the primary. I'm not sure which one is worse here. Conyers is at least old and will be gone soon. At least people will have a choice here.

MI-13 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – John Conyers (D-Detroit)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 50

Challengers –Jeff Gorman (R-Garden City), Horace Sheffield (D-Detroit)

2012:

John Conyers – 222535 – 82.15%

Harry Sawicki – 38380 – 14.17%

-184155 vote difference

Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)

Romney  – 14.12%

Obama – 85.33%

2008:  Approx

McCain – 14.44%

Obama – 84.589%

2004:  approx

Bush – 19.31%

Kerry – 79.93%

-80650 vote difference

Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. District has about 55% of Detroit. Detroit is slightly over 50% of the district votes. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.

I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said.  

This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13^th and 14^th districts have odd shapes. This district is solely in Wayne County and covers a path between Inkster and Romulus to Ecorse and River Rouge through Detroit.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

 

2008

2004

Starting on the SW end, Romulus is the home of Detroit Metro Airport. It’s safe democrat and has been as long as I remember. It’s long had a large black population, but it’s close to 50/50 today.  It’s gone over 70% dem the last three elections, lately 78 and 79%. Obama did better here in 2012 than 2008. Next door is Wayne and Westland. Those are both heavily union, either UAW or Airport workers. They are both about 17% black, and in Westland’s case, heavily increasing. East of Westland is Inkster and Garden City. Garden City is still overwhelmingly white and union. It’s consistently 54-58% democrat. Inkster is and has been majority black. It’s gone from 88% dem in 04 to 94% dem today. Romney did worse than McCain in all of these areas.

East of there is Dearborn Heights. Most of it is in this district. Romney did worse than McCain here as well. It’s white, but less so than it was, especially as the Parkland and Warrendale section’s of Detroit are emptying out.  North of there is Redford. Redford Twp has gone from being competitive and “conservadem” as recently as the 90’s to 57% Kerry, 66% Obama 08, and 70% Obama 2012. Migration. A lot of the Irish and Polish there are moving out, and a lot of Detroiters are moving it. It was 28% black in 2010. It’ll be black majority by the end of the decade.

South of Detroit is Melvindale, Ecorse, and River Rouge. All three have long been democrat strongholds due to both labor and minorities. Ecorse and River Rouge are majority minority with a black plurality. Obama did better in all three areas in 2012 than in 2008. Melvindale went 72% for Obama, and the others went about 90%.

While Conyers runs slightly behind the ticket, this seat is likely his until he retires or dies in office. He survived a credible primary opponent in Glenn Anderson despite Monica Conyers being behind bars. He’s safe. There’s a long bench for this district if it opens up for the dems.

MI-13	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Wayne County
Dearborn Hghts (most)	8386	15019	23645	-6633	35.47%	63.52%
DH24	-327	-463	-797	136	41.03%	58.09%
DH25	-301	-585	-895	284	33.63%	65.36%
dh 26	-301	-449	-763	148	39.45%	58.85%
dh 27	-286	-501	-796	215	35.93%	62.94%
dh 911ac	-468	-542	-1021	74	45.84%	53.09%
Detroit (55% of city)	3310	154959	158721	-151649	2.09%	97.63%
Ecorse	327	3350	3702	-3023	8.83%	90.49%
Garden City	5283	7230	12672	-1947	41.69%	57.05%
Highland Park	43	3712	3759	-3669	1.14%	98.75%
Inkster	567	10625	11228	-10058	5.05%	94.63%
Melvindale	1028	2824	3884	-1796	26.47%	72.71%
Redford Twp	6905	16835	23969	-9930	28.81%	70.24%
River Rouge	320	2818	3156	-2498	10.14%	89.29%
Romulus	2233	8747	11061	-6514	20.19%	79.08%
Wayne	2477	5080	7630	-2603	32.46%	66.58%
Westland	12598	23840	36759	-11242	34.27%	64.85%
Total	41794	252499	295914	-210705	14.12%	85.33%

Peters to run in the 14th District

Interesting decision here.

From the Detroit News

Detroit— The races for Congress became clearer Thursday as U.S. Rep. Gary Peters announced he'll challenge for the Democratic nomination in the 14th District and longtime U.S. Rep. John Conyers decided he will run in the new 13th District.

With the state losing a seat in Congress due to population loss, Peters was the odd-man-out as his old 9th District was carved up, leaving him without a seat. Under the same boundaries, Conyers' 14th District was redrawn to include portions of Wayne and Oakland counties, but not much of his traditional base.

Part of the logjam was resolved when U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke, D-Detroit, announced he'd run in the new 14th District, which includes areas he now represents. That opened the door for speculation about whether Conyers would then run in the 13th, a move that a source close to Conyers confirmed to The News on Thursday.

Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, on Thursday told supporters he'll run for office in the new 14th District.

"… Congressional districts are just lines on a map," Peters, serving his second term in Congress, said in an email to supporters. "I believe that regardless of where we call home, we all want the same things: economic security, fairness from government, and an honest chance to find success and happiness."

"I've spent my life fighting for these values."

Also eying the seat are Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and Southfield Treasurer Irv Lowenberg.

Lines on a map, Peters? Bad choice of words when describing people's homes. I don't think people would buy that line if I ran for office in the nearby 7th or 11th districts which border Green Oak. The area Peters represents now in this district is Pontiac, Farmington Hills, Orchard Lake, Keego Harbor, and West Bloomfield. He's currently in the 9th along with Sander Levin in a district that's really mostly the old 12th. If I was Peters, I'd have instead mentioned that I represented the people in Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, and Pontiac in Congress, and am running to represent those as well as the new areas of this district.

John Conyers is running in the 13th instead, while Hansen Clarke is running in the 14th. I don't find that controversial as they are in the same city. Detroiters representing Detroit.

However, neither Conyers or Clarke is going to get a free pass. Conyers will be facing State Senator Bert Johnson (Highland Park) and also State Rep Shanelle Jackson (Detroit). There may be others, but those are in so far. I think Conyers is favored, but if someone goes after the Redford/Westland/Garden City/Dearborn Heights votes, this could get interesting. I don't think most of them care for Mr Monica Conyers. I think they would gladly consider a strong alternative candidate.

Clarke I think has a easier battle with Peters who became infamous with his Obamacare vote. If Brenda Lawrence jumps in, I think she'll have a very good chance to win (more as pro-Lawrence rather than anti-Clarke). Peters was able to win last time largely because of Pontiac, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield. Those areas all tilt democrat, but will they vote for Peters over the well known and not very controversial Lawrence? Outside of Bloomfield, I doubt it, and that includes the white folks. Over Clarke? I don't know. Clarke isn't Conyers and doesn't have as much of controversial demeanor to suburbanites. A lot of people don't know who he is, outside of a recent state legislature and the guy who beat Carolyn Kilpatrick. The fact that he beat Kwame's mom gets him some credit in his favor right off the bat.

As a Republican, I don't see a lot of difference between any of them from a voting record standpoint, only in style differences and committee differences. Conyers is on judiciary. Clarke is on science and homeland security. I wouldn't mind seeing a gun grabber off of judiciary. I'd rather see Clarke win than Peters, since Peters doesn't need statewide traction with his ambitions and Oakland County base.

Bert Johnson still going to primary Conyers

With Clarke and Conyers switching districts, it's going to be smooth sailing right?

Maybe not. Highland Park State Senator Bert Johnson is going to primary Conyers anyway, no matter which district he runs. How this effects the race will be unknown.

From the Detroit news

State Sen. Bert Johnson, D-Highland Park, announced Friday he'll run for Congress in the 13th District.

The decision follows a move Sunday by freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke, D-Detroit, to run in the 14th District rather than his current 13th. Rep. John Conyers, the current 14th District representative, has not announced his intention, but it's expected he'll run in Clarke's 13th.

The swap by the two congressmen occurs after redistricting maps were approved recently by Gov. Rick Snyder. The new maps drastically changed the shape of the Detroit districts, and a switch would allow Clarke and Conyers to better align with their constituencies.

"I am indeed running," Johnson said on the "First Shift with Tony Trupiano Show" on WDTW-AM (1310).

"… It will be the 13th Congressional District."

Johnson had originally said he would run against Conyers in the 14th District, which includes part of Detroit, the Grosse Pointes and parts of Oakland County. The shift to the 13th includes the west side of Detroit, his hometown of Highland Park and parts of western Wayne County.

Johnson has a felony on his record. Robbery related. He was 19 at the time. I think he's 34 or 35 now. It'll be an issue, but it was a long time ago.

The big question to his chances is who else jumps in. In a one-on-one matchup between the two, I think the key will be the white ethnics and suburban blacks in the district. Westland, Redford, Garden City. Who sells there. They aren't Conyers voters. They are Glenn Anderson, Richard LeBlanc, Jim Plakus, and Eileen DeHart voters (I'd like to see DeHart or LeBlanc run). They prefer union democrats with more moderate reputations. Will they vote for Johnson with his record? Usually no. Over Conyers? That's an interesting decision. This isn't a Brenda Lawrence type of challenge here.

At worst, there's a choice. I don't think there will be many voting record differences between Johnson or Conyers. I think Conyers will survive, but who knows what will happen. I hope they all spend a ton of money in the primary. That's how Republicans would win in this race.

Clarke and Conyers to likely switch districts

This has been rumored for awhile. From Politico

Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) avoided a perilous primary challenge Sunday when neighboring Rep. Hansen Clarke paved the way for the two Michigan Democrats to essentially swap congressional districts ahead of their reelection bids.

The maneuvering came less than two weeks after Republican Gov. Rick Snyder signed into law a new congressional map that carved up both Conyers’ and Clarke’s districts in a way that had them each representing many of the others’ constituents — a dynamic that led several Democrats to eye a primary against Conyers. But Clarke, a freshman, announced Sunday that he would run in the 14th District now held by Conyers — something Conyers had been quietly pushing for behind the scenes for weeks.

Here's the map. "Mr Monica" Conyers is in the Palmer Park neighborhood on Detroit's Northwest side. It's in that stretch of the 14th north of Highland Park. The old district was more of a West Side district. Clarke's in the 13th, but will be running in the 14th. He's on Detroit's East side, and a lot of the 14th represents that area. It's not a controversial carpetbagger type of move with their West/East side histories.

I think this is very significant though in regards to the primary. A Democrat will win these districts barring a Bill Jefferson type of situation, but these districts are now about 55% VRA minority districts instead of 65%+ districts. It is conceivable that a non-Detroit candidate, or even a white candidate, can win those districts.

That's more likely in the 14th, with Oakland County and the Grosse Pointes both in that district, being hostile to certain Detroit candidates. Conyers is more outspoken and is perceived as more confrontational in style than Clarke, and is choosing the district strictly in Wayne County and without the Pointes. His primary path is - at least right now, easier than Clarke's. Clarke will have a tougher path on paper, but I think he'd do better in Oakland/Pointes than Conyers. The Pointes lean republican, but will often vote in Democrat primaries in non gubernatorial elections. The state rep seat there is competitive, but the other districts are solidly democrat. They don't like "Mr Monica" Conyers. They didn't like the Barbara Rose Collins. They didn't like Kwame Kilpatrick, and took it out on his mom. Hansen Clarke isn't in that category as far as I know. Conservatives don't like his voting record, but they don't like the voting record of Gary Peters either. These potential primaries are more about style, corruption, and attitude than the actual voting records.

Brenda Lawrence, Southfield mayor, may be running in Clarke's district. Gary Peters (lives in 9th, next door to Pontiac/W.Bloomfield), and Tim Melton (Pontiac or neighboring Auburn Hills) also might run. Another candidate is Bert Johnson, a state senator from the City of Detroit. He planned on running against Conyers, not Clarke. I don't know if he'll change his plans or not. He has won several times as a state legislator though. Other than that, I don't know much about him. I think the biggest factor in how a primary challenge goes will be the mouths of the candidates or their top aides, and how antagonistic each particular candidate is towards suburbs or whitey (not the same thing). With less and less of the district being in Detroit, the key is for there to be a balance in style not ticking off either side too much. This district would favor more Dennis Archer and less Sharon McPhail. That's why I think Clarke would be a much tougher opponent to challenge in this district than "Mr Monica" Conyers. There isn't the level of dislike for Clarke outside of the city as there is for the name Conyers (Or Kilpatrick, Rose-Collins, Coleman A Young). I don't think Peters would win a primary. I think a lot of his core support in Pontiac was due to who he isn't instead of who he is. Melton? Without Auburn Hills, that would be a tougher go for him. Brenda Lawrence would be a very strong challenger however, with Southfield's added significance with Detroit's population drops.

The 13th is more favorable to Conyers with him not having to deal with the Pointes or Oakland County, but it might not be a free pass. He has several white-majority working class suburbs which are democrats and will vote in that party's primary. He wouldn't have to face Brenda Lawrence here, but a guy like Glenn Anderson could give him a tough race. Romulus, Wayne, Westland, Garden City, Inkster, Dearborn Heights, and Redford are all new to the district. Anderson represented Westland, Garden City, and Redford. Will Detroit former state senator Buzz Thomas (depending on where he lives) go for it? He planned on it before and stepped back. I think Conyers is favored to win a primary, but I don't think it will be a cakewalk.

Keep an eye on the primaries here if there are any. While the incumbents are favored, certain candidates running could make this a very interesting race.

Congressional District 14 - Redistricted (MI-14)

Incumbent - John Conyers (D-Detroit) - Running in MI-13
Years in office as of 2012 election - 48
The old 14th district information is here.

Challenger - John Hauler (R-Grosse Pointe Woods), Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp, incumbent in MI-09)

Update 8-30-2012 - Surprisingly, Peters won. I never thought a white guy could win this district. Clarke won Detroit, but Peters won big in Oakland County, even the black areas there. Peters didn't do bad in Detroit either.

UPDATE 5-1-2012 - Conyers has filed in neighboring MI-13. Clarke has announced he is running in MI-14. It is likely that Brenda Lawrence and Gary Peters are also running here. They have campaigns going, although have not officially turned in their signatures.

Update 5-16-2012 - This is going to be an interesting primary. A lot of the dem establishment is surprisingly to me, lining up for Gary Peters the yesman. I just can't see a white guy from Bloomfield having a prayer in a Detroit based district, especially with Brenda Lawrence running in Southfield. A white guy from Detroit? Maybe. A black guy from Bloomfield? Less likely, but possible. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I'll be shocked if Peters wins, especially against someone like Clarke instead of Conyers, who has a history of doing well in white areas with his nice guy image. Waters would have been a stronger candidate a few years back pre-scandal. Lawrence I think is a much stronger candidate than people think. My money is still on Clarke. Clarke may have been in another district, but he's represented the East Side.

This is one of two black majority voting rights act districts in Michigan. I'm not going to run the numbers because Detroit itself is 93-95% democrat. Detroit's population keeps dropping, but it's still about 1/2 of the district.

Say what you want about John Conyers, but he's a survivor. He got his start as Dingell's aide, probably back when Dingell represented Detroit. He's been his colleague for 48 years.

The old 14th district was Detroit, and much of downriver. The new 14th picks up the Grosse Pointes, much to their chagrin (avoiding a Macomb/Wayne County break). It also goes across 8 Mile Road into Oakland County due to migration. It picks up black majority Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township from Sander Levin. It then picks up Farmington Hills and most of West Bloomfield from the old 9th district. Orchard Lake and Keego Harbor are added as well, and probably aren't very about this. Pontiac is over 50% minority and is added to this district as well.

This is one of the two safest districts in the state for the dems.

Conyers in trouble?

I'll believe it when I see it, but I don't think Monica Conyers has done John Conyers any favors.

From the Hill

House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers (D-Mich.) could face a tough reelection race in 2010, according to a new, independent poll released this weekend.

40 percent of Conyers's constituents said he deserved reelection, according to a poll conducted earlier this month by the Lansing, Mich.-based Deno Noor Polling, in conjunction with the Rossman Group and Perricone Group.

44 percent of Detroiters represented by Conyers said they would prefer to elect someone else. 15 percent were unsure or didn't know.

The 80-year-old Conyers has served in Congress since 1965, making him one of the longest-serving members of Congress still in office. He could face a challenging reelection, though, due to the conviction of his wife, Monica Conyers, for bribery charges incurred while she served as President Pro Tempore of the Detroit City Council.

Let's remember Detroit's record of electing incumbents. 99.9999% it seems. Carolyn Kilpatrick won a three way race last November at the height of Kwame's disasters. Unless there's an insanely lucky turnout like Joseph Cao's election in a New Orelans special election that went 75% for Obama, this will stay democrat. All of Downriver would have to ticket split, and most of Detroit would have to stay home with all the republicans showing up. I don't expect it. If Conyers loses, it will likely be in the primary.