You're either in or you're out

I'm getting real tired of this type of talk.

From Bloomberg news

Representative Dave Camp, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said he would decide by January whether to run for the Senate next year. 

You're either in or you're out. I'm tired of this "might run" or "may run" type of talk I see from so many people speculated as candidates. Run, or don't run. I respect either decision.

 If you show me a half-assed campaign, you'll get half-assed results. If you're not going to jump in with both feet and give it 100% in your campaign - DON'T RUN. Candidates who run a half-way campaign in a Senate race are as bad as a Sharron Angle, Christine O'Donnell, or Todd Akin. They get the same results. They lose. Usually 57-40. Where was Pete Hoesktra last year? Tommy Thompson lost too, to Tammy Baldwin of all people.

After last year, my patience for a bullshit halfway job campaign is done, whether it be a halfway job due to abandonment, laziness, bad advice of consultants, giving up, or running like you are talked into running. Voters respect effort. Whether you agree or not with Joe Hune, he knows how to win and outwork opponents. That gets him votes from independents as well as conservatives. These are things that can always be controlled. Things that can be controlled should be controlled. Self inflicted errors have cost a number of campaigns.

What scares me is this. Some quarters in Lansing are not fans of Terri Land and are recruiting some supposed "big name" to jump in. This is reminding me of Butler, Zandstra, Bouchard in 2006 in some ways. They are in love with the idea of a Dave Camp candidacy for one reason and one reason only. He has a  $3 Million Dollar warchest and has had some elected office. Money is important, but it doesn't guarantee a win. Ask Romney. He was the supposed "electable" (I never thought so - and said he couldn't close the deal long before the loss) candidate because of money. That was one of the crappiest campaigns I've ever seen between Boston's broken promises and the Project Orca clustermuck. Money is important, but decisions in how it is spent is more important. Will Camp knock on doors? Will he spend the hours and hours necessary away from his home base in Midland, and go to places like Ottawa County, the UP, Metro Detroit, Livingston County, and across the whole state? If I ask 100 Republican voters here who Dave Camp is, most will say "Who?" and we border his district.

I met Dave Camp a couple of times, but I don't know him. From what I've heard about him, he doesn't have skeletons, is quiet and isn't offensive. He shows up and does his job. He hasn't had many tough races and never won with less than 61%. That can be encouraging or discouraging. Encouraging is that he's not Todd Akin. What's discouraging is that he (like Hoekstra) hasn't been through the ringer of a super tough general election campaign. His toughest opponent was probably Mike Huckleberry, probably considered a B- team candidate (although an A candidate if the district was Montcalm County) who later went on to win a state rep race for a term. 

Camp is chair of Ways and Means. Does he have the time to run a full bore campaign against a tough opponent in Gary Peters? If the answer is maybe, probably, or "he thinks he can", then he shouldn't run. Camp should only run if he can look in the mirror and then tell his family "I'm in 100%. We will win and do what it takes to do so." If he can honestly do that without trying to make himself believe he can do that, then I have no problem with his candidacy.

One thing I respect about Terri Lynn Land is that she told Mike Rogers "I'll wait until this time." When that date passed, she ran. No mights. No maybes. She's in. We have a candidate here who has announced. She's won statewide twice. If someone wants to run a primary, that's fine. If someone is running because he was talked into running due to a 3 million warchest, then that's not good.

Back in 2002, I always ran into Terri Land on the campaign trail. She was strong in West Michigan, but worked hard out here as well. That was one of the big reasons she earned my support (Lorne Bennett was running as well then). She was a hard worker. She didn't disappear after the election either. There's a lot to be said for that, especially as I live on the other side of the state.

Whoever runs has to outwork Gary Peters by a good margin. If the candidate is unwilling or unable to do that, then that candidate won't win. Peters isn't a pushover.
 

MI-03 - Terri Lynn Land not running for Congress (Nor is Zandstra)

There's a lot of speculation going on with the open 3rd district race. So far, the only announced candidate is State Rep. Justin Amash. Some speculation centered on Terri Lynn Land, but that was shot down quickly.From Grand Rapids Press

Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is not going to run for the Congressional seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers, a spokesman said today. "Right now, she's focused on being part of Mike Bouchard's team for governor," spokesperson Matt Golden said.
Land, a Kent County Republican, who is term-limited as Secretary of State, committed last fall to being Oakland County Sheriff's gubernatorial running mate.

Also according to the Western  Right blog, Jerry Zandstra is not running either. State Rep Dave Agema endorsed his colleague Amash.

Three names I keep hearing are Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, and Bill Hardiman. Hardiman got a LOT of establishment support when he ran for State Senate in 2002, but will that transfer to Congress.since a lot of people have their eye on this spot.

Interestingly, there's already a poll from John Yob. Thanks to John for releasing this. From Grand Rapids Press

GOP strategist John Yob did a quick telephone poll of 1,230 likely GOP primary voters Tuesday evening when it became apparent U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers would resign his seat. Here's what his "snapshot" of the "starting gate" showed: Possible candidate: (Voters) Percentage
Bill Hardiman: (229) 19%
Ken Sikkema: (163) 13%
Terri Lynn Land: (151) 12%
Dave Hildenbrand: (129) 10%
Mark Jansen: (90) 8%
Justin Amash: (81) 7%
Brian Calley: (67) 5%
Kevin Green: (33) 3%
Jerry Zandstra: (27) 2%
Undecided: (252) 20%

Terri Land and Jerry Zandstra can be taken off the list. Dave Hildenbrand has announced for Hardiman's old State Senate seat, the 29th. Dave's a sharp guy, going back to his days with Posthumus. He's got a tough district, but if anyone can win there, he can. Does he switch races by finishing fourth in Yob's poll? I think it depends on who jumps in.

Interestingly, nobody from Ionia County was in the poll. I'd watch for geography to factor in this race. Ionia and Barry Counties, Grand Rapids itself. Eastern burbs (Kentwood, Lowell), Western Burbs (Grandville, Wyoming, Walker), and the Northern and Southern more rural areas. I'll almost bet money that the democrat running will be from Grand Rapids itself.

It'll be interesting to watch.

Bernero jumps in for governor, 3rd District (MI-03) opens?

Some major news in the works.

First, in a surprise to few, Lansing Mayor and former State Senator/State Rep Virg Bernero is running for governor. That makes things interesting. Virg is unknown outside of the Lansing area, but that won't be the case for long. He has a lot of detractors and supporters. One thing I will respect about Virg is that he doesn't mince words much and isn't afraid of speaking his mind. I think he's a real threat to win, much more than any of the names mentioned by the democrats so far. Andy Dillon, Denise Ilitch, Alma Smith, Bob "I don't live in Michigan" Bowman. Virg will work hard and if he loses, it won't be because of lazy campaigning. The GOP is going to have to bring it, no matter who the nominee is on either side, but especially if it's Virg, because he'll be bringing it. I guarantee people will know who he is by the time the primary ends.

Secondly, Justin Amash, a state rep from Kent County has announced he is running for the 3rd Congressional District. From Mlive

ustin Amash, 29, a first-term Republican state representative from Kentwood, announced on his Facebook page minutes ago that he will seek the 3rd District Congressional seat held by Vern Ehlers.

He set up a Web site that touts his record of supporting limited government.

Ehlers, 76, said he would announce Wednesday whether he will seek a ninth term. The district includes Barry, Ionia and all but a sliver of Kent counties.

If Ehlers does run again, he has plenty of cash on hand ($489,645) and raised a healthy $133,786 in the past quarter. The district remains solidly Republican, although the Grand Rapids population base leans Democratic.

Amash's Web site says fellow state representatives Dave Agema, R-Grandville, Bob Genetski, R-Saugatuck, and Tom McMillin, R-Rochester Hills, all have endorsed his Congressional bid.

Thirdly, speculation is that Vern Ehlers is retiring. That would fit Amash's announcement. Expect a primary. From Hotline

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI 03) will announce his retirement at a 10 a.m. presser tomorrow morning, according to a MI-based source.
A press release from Ehler's office says the presser "follow[s] speculation about his plans to continue serving" in the House. Several GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall his wife had a heart attack last week, further lending credence to speculation he will step aside.
The 2/10 announcement will come a day after state Rep. Justin Amash (R) announced a primary challenge to Ehlers.
This Grand Rapids-based seat, under the right circumstances, is a potential pickup opportunity for Dems. In the '08 Dem wave, and with the GOP virtually conceding MI, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) eked out a 49%-49% win over Pres. Obama. But in much better times for the GOP in '04, George W. Bush won a comfortable 59-40% win over Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). The current enviro., both nationally and in MI, indicate that GOPers should be in a much safer place to hold this open seat. Ehlers, meanwhile, has never won with less than 61%.
Besides Amash, a GOP source names state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R) as a potential candidate. Hardiman, an African-American, represents a Grand Rapids-based seat in the Legislature, and was former mayor of Kentwood.

This seat should stay ours, but I am a little concerned about it. There's my recent update of the 3rd district.

Assuming this is now an open district, the keys are what kind of a primary we're going to have, and who the democrats are going to throw out for this. I think the good news for us and this district is that the 29th District state senate seat is opening up, since I expect the top democrat candidates to run for that instead because it's an easier district. I think Steve Pestka, Michael Sak, Roy Schmidt, George Heartwell, and Robert Dean could make things more difficult in keeping this seat if there is a divided primary. One on one, I'm not worried. A five on one Joe Schwarz special from 2004 worries me, especially if the democrat is pro-life. (if not, our odds of winning double)

There's a lot of people I can see running for this seat. Some I prefer to others. Justin Amash and Bill Hardiman are mentioned, but I'd watch for former Lt Governor Dick Posthumus, Jerry Zandstra, one of the Glenn Steils, Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, Brian Calley, Gary Newell, Kevin Green, or Tom Pearce to make a run, along with a possible countywide officer from Kent County. With Bouchard's early polling numbers, would Terri Lynn Land drop her Lt Governor bid for a Congressional run? (I'm probably going to hear about that comment later. Pure speculation, nothing more.) If the primary looks like it may be divisive, look for that "safe choice" to be recruited. I expect that to be either Land or Posthumus. If either of them run, I think they would be the favorites. If not, this will be wide open for the taking and I haven't followed all the ins and outs of Kent County politics to make a good guess.

This one will be quite interesting.

Governor race updates, Mackinac Conference

Mike Bouchard named Terri Land as running mate. WDIV reporting. That's not a real surprise since Land decided last July she was not running and endorsed Bouchard almost immediately. Does it effect the race? Maybe to a small extent. This is from the David Bonior playbook back in 2002. Alma Wheeler Smith was running, dropped out, and ran with Bonior. Bonior finished 2nd to the then so called "rock star" candidate Matt Millen, I mean Jennifer Granholm. Bouchard's biggest weakness is his 2006 performance against Stabenow. He's a good guy and it wasn't all his fault, but numbers don't lie. I'd like to see Bouchard run against Gary Peters. I think he can win that race. I have doubts whether he would win the governor's race. My reponse to the Bouchard for Governor campaign? Bouchard for Congress!

On another note there was a dustup about the invitation (or not) of Tom George to a gubenatorial debate. From Crain's Detroit Business.

Republican gubernatorial hopeful Sen. Tom George, R-Kalamazoo, is back in the debate.

After hearing from the chair of the Michigan Republican Party and some other candidates, the Michigan Taxpayers Alliance has reconsidered its decision to cut George from a Republican gubernatorial candidate debate at the Sept. 26 Republican Leadership Conference on Mackinac Island.
(snip)
Earlier in the week, George said that the MTA rescinded their invitation for him to participate and cited the reason that WJR AM 760 is only able to air the debate for one hour and Drolet and the MTA’s board felt that they should limit who can participate in the debate.

On Wednesday, Drolet said the Republican Party is responsible for negotiating with radio stations for coverage and he would have welcomed more time that would have enabled George’s initial inclusion.

He said that when the alliance learned it only had an hour of air time, the board initially felt it needed to limit the debate to “the perceived top four candidates running statewide campaigns.”

My view. Let him in. Anyone on the ballot or with a committee on the GOP side should be in. I'm not voting for Tom George (I'm not against him like I am against Snyder), but he's as much a candidate as anyone else in the race. It's not like little known state senators have never won the governorship. Ask John Engler in 1990.

The Mackinac Conference is coming up. This is the big GOP event in Michigan every two years. Presidential wannabes usually show up, but the big thing right now are the state level races. Governor. Attorney General (undecided) and Secretary of State (also undecided). There's a lot of inside baseball going on right now. I'll be posting a report after the conference or during if I get access.

Terri Land not running for governor. Bouchard receives her endorsement

Nick at Right Michigan breaks the story

This I didn't expect, but I have been wondering why Land was not as active as I thought she would be. I think what is more interesting though is who she endorsed. Bouchard, from the other side of the state. I think the big winner here is Pete Hoekstra.

We have running:
Mike Bouchard - Oakland County Sheriff
Mike Cox - AG, Wayne County
Rick Snyder - Ann Arbor businessman
Pete Hoekstra - Congressman from Holland
Tom George - State Senator from Kalamazoo

In my opinion, Land dropping out eliminated of one of the two strongest West MI candidates in the race. I don't think Tom George is all that well known outside of the Kalamazoo area, political junkies, and maybe Battle Creek as well. He may be a stronger candidate down the road, but I think he'll be going for Upton's Congressional position depending on redistricting, or Lt Governor.

As for the Bouchard endorsement, I think Land is running for Lt Governor. Does this help Bouchard? Some. I think it helps Hoekstra more. I think what is interesting is that despite some political ties, Land did not endorse Snyder. That tells me that there is either a major issue disagreement, or a question of an issue like experience. I don't think Snyder's going anywhere anyway.

I like Bouchard, but my concern for Bouchard is if can he win. I think he should have beaten Stabenow, not lose by 15%. If this was a 4-5% loss, I'd be less concerned because of the 2006 disaster, but DeVos ran better than Bouchard. Part of that was Stabenow being more popular than Granholm, but there's no way in hell we should be losing statewide races by 15%+. That only usually happens with no shows (McCain), quitters (McCain), and Sacrificial lambs (Levin's opponents).

I don't think that was all Bouchard's fault, but I didn't see as many specifics as I wanted to see in his last campaign. I hope that changes. The campaign in 06 was more on the line of Bouchard being a good guy and the sheriff. I agree with that, but we needed to see more. I hope we see more in the primary.

Still undecided in 2010.