Updated 4-9-2010 - Stupak is retiring.
Updated 4-26-2010 - Added names of candidates in.
Updated 5-18-2010 - Listed official candidates.
Updated 8-4-2010 - Allen and Benishek will probably go to a recount.
Updated 8-15-2010 - Benishek wins.
Candidates so far:
GOP:
Dan Benishek - Surgeon
Dem:
Gary McDowell - State Rep from Chippewa County
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Michigan's 1st District - Congress
Incumbent - Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) - Not running for re-election
Years in office as of 2010 election - 18.
Cook District Numbers - R+3
Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 50%
McCain - 48%
2004:
Bush – 53%
Kerry – 46%
2000:
Bush 52%
Gore 45%
The 1st District is the largest district in Michigan in terms of area. It covers all of the UP, and most of Northeastern Lower Michigan as well, along with a few other Northern Michigan Counties.
It covers:
The U.P. - Alger, Baraga, Chippewa, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, Luce, Mackinac, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, and Schoolcraft Counties.
Northern Michigan - Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Crawford, Emmet, Gladwin, Iosco, Montmorency, Ogemaw, Otsego, and Presque Isle Counties.
Bay County - Beaver, Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Monitor (precinct 3,5), Mount Forest, Pinconning, and Williams Townships. Also the City of Auburn, City of Pinconning, and precinct 1 in the City of Midland (most of which is in Midland County) is included.
There are a lot of ticket splitting counties there. All of Stupak's contests under the current borders have essentially been the same, so I'm going to nitpick all of them. His weakest showing was actually in the democrat year of 2008. That's because his opponent was Tom Casperson, a former state rep, instead of Don Hooper who has low name ID. Stupak ran 15% ahead of Obama, instead of 20% ahead of John Kerry. That's like going 12-4 in NFL football instead of 14-2 because you played the Vikings and Steelers instead of the Browns and Lions....and you're still the 1980's 49'ers.
The most recent election here was 2008. It was like the others in results, although Casperson, who comes from the same state rep district as Stupak, actually did the best this decade against Stupak. That was due to his reducing the loss in Delta County.
| 2008 Election | Casperson | Stupak | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Alcona | 2,183 | 4,003 | 139 | 6,325 | -1820 | 34.51% | 63.29% | -28.77% |
| Alger | 1,594 | 3,054 | 68 | 4,716 | -1460 | 33.80% | 64.76% | -30.96% |
| Alpena | 4,095 | 10,613 | 272 | 14,980 | -6518 | 27.34% | 70.85% | -43.51% |
| Antrim | 5,510 | 7,721 | 378 | 13,609 | -2211 | 40.49% | 56.73% | -16.25% |
| Arenac | 2,434 | 5,041 | 289 | 7,764 | -2607 | 31.35% | 64.93% | -33.58% |
| Baraga | 1,224 | 2,352 | 54 | 3,630 | -1128 | 33.72% | 64.79% | -31.07% |
| Bay | 4,980 | 10,448 | 589 | 16,017 | -5468 | 31.09% | 65.23% | -34.14% |
| Charlevoix | 5,199 | 8,596 | 408 | 14,203 | -3397 | 36.60% | 60.52% | -23.92% |
| Cheboygan | 4,282 | 9,139 | 276 | 13,697 | -4857 | 31.26% | 66.72% | -35.46% |
| Chippewa | 4,460 | 11,710 | 362 | 16,532 | -7250 | 26.98% | 70.83% | -43.85% |
| Crawford | 2,245 | 4,500 | 242 | 6,987 | -2255 | 32.13% | 64.41% | -32.27% |
| Delta | 7,857 | 11,099 | 125 | 19,081 | -3242 | 41.18% | 58.17% | -16.99% |
| Dickinson | 5,108 | 8,041 | 162 | 13,311 | -2933 | 38.37% | 60.41% | -22.03% |
| Emmet | 6,933 | 10,353 | 489 | 17,775 | -3420 | 39.00% | 58.24% | -19.24% |
| Gladwin | 4,488 | 7,880 | 460 | 12,828 | -3392 | 34.99% | 61.43% | -26.44% |
| Gogebic | 1,974 | 5,998 | 212 | 8,184 | -4024 | 24.12% | 73.29% | -49.17% |
| Houghton | 5,797 | 9,714 | 304 | 15,815 | -3917 | 36.66% | 61.42% | -24.77% |
| Iosco | 3,898 | 9,649 | 340 | 13,887 | -5751 | 28.07% | 69.48% | -41.41% |
| Iron | 1,825 | 4,269 | 73 | 6,167 | -2444 | 29.59% | 69.22% | -39.63% |
| Keweenaw | 544 | 831 | 29 | 1,404 | -287 | 38.75% | 59.19% | -20.44% |
| Luce | 892 | 1,767 | 59 | 2,718 | -875 | 32.82% | 65.01% | -32.19% |
| Mackinac | 1,864 | 4,366 | 109 | 6,339 | -2502 | 29.41% | 68.88% | -39.47% |
| Marquette | 8,853 | 23,550 | 616 | 33,019 | -14697 | 26.81% | 71.32% | -44.51% |
| Menominee | 3,687 | 7,214 | 112 | 11,013 | -3527 | 33.48% | 65.50% | -32.03% |
| Montmorency | 1,641 | 3,490 | 135 | 5,266 | -1849 | 31.16% | 66.27% | -35.11% |
| Ogemaw | 3,088 | 6,963 | 317 | 10,368 | -3875 | 29.78% | 67.16% | -37.37% |
| Ontonagon | 1,088 | 2,705 | 97 | 3,890 | -1617 | 27.97% | 69.54% | -41.57% |
| Oscoda | 1,425 | 2,677 | 130 | 4,232 | -1252 | 33.67% | 63.26% | -29.58% |
| Otsego | 4,505 | 7,632 | 271 | 12,408 | -3127 | 36.31% | 61.51% | -25.20% |
| Presque Isle | 2,168 | 5,097 | 174 | 7,439 | -2929 | 29.14% | 68.52% | -39.37% |
| Schoolcraft | 1,499 | 2,744 | 66 | 4,309 | -1245 | 34.79% | 63.68% | -28.89% |
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| Total | 107,340 | 213,216 | 7,357 | 327,913 | -105876 | 32.73% | 65.02% | -32.29% |
Casperson's best counties were Republican base counties outside of Delta County, which says much about Stupak's crossover strength. What makes this district so difficult is that not only is it gigantic in area, it is very rural. Marquette County, by far the largest in population, had about 10% of the vote in the congressional election. It's not all that much different in the presidential races, which I'll throw in.The largest portion is only 10% of the vote. There's no dominating region, even if you split Yooper and Troll (in the district) regions. There isn't a lot of difference anymore between "Yooper" and Northeastern "Trolls" in voting. 150,784 of the votes were Yoopers which went 51.90% for Obama and 46.19% for McCain (which I think is still lower than Dukakis, and much lower than Clinton). McCain won the Northern lower portion 49.64% to 48.47%. Much of the wins are from the portions of the district closer to Lake Michigan than Lake Huron (Emmett, Otsego, Antrim Counties)
| 2008 Election | McCain | Obama | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Alcona | 3,404 | 2,896 | 120 | 6,420 | 508 | 53.02% | 45.11% | 7.91% |
| Alger | 2,188 | 2,472 | 87 | 4,747 | -284 | 46.09% | 52.07% | -5.98% |
| Alpena | 7,125 | 7,705 | 255 | 15,085 | -580 | 47.23% | 51.08% | -3.84% |
| Antrim | 7,506 | 6,079 | 267 | 13,852 | 1427 | 54.19% | 43.89% | 10.30% |
| Arenac | 3,807 | 4,155 | 166 | 8,128 | -348 | 46.84% | 51.12% | -4.28% |
| Baraga | 1,846 | 1,725 | 73 | 3,644 | 121 | 50.66% | 47.34% | 3.32% |
| Bay | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
| Charlevoix | 7,306 | 6,817 | 244 | 14,367 | 489 | 50.85% | 47.45% | 3.40% |
| Cheboygan | 6,920 | 6,720 | 261 | 13,901 | 200 | 49.78% | 48.34% | 1.44% |
| Chippewa | 8,267 | 8,184 | 257 | 16,708 | 83 | 49.48% | 48.98% | 0.50% |
| Crawford | 3,561 | 3,441 | 176 | 7,178 | 120 | 49.61% | 47.94% | 1.67% |
| Delta | 8,763 | 9,974 | 329 | 19,066 | -1211 | 45.96% | 52.31% | -6.35% |
| Dickinson | 7,049 | 5,995 | 267 | 13,311 | 1054 | 52.96% | 45.04% | 7.92% |
| Emmet | 9,314 | 8,515 | 320 | 18,149 | 799 | 51.32% | 46.92% | 4.40% |
| Gladwin | 6,391 | 6,590 | 145 | 13,126 | -199 | 48.69% | 50.21% | -1.52% |
| Gogebic | 3,330 | 4,757 | 177 | 8,264 | -1427 | 40.30% | 57.56% | -17.27% |
| Houghton | 8,101 | 7,476 | 365 | 15,942 | 625 | 50.82% | 46.89% | 3.92% |
| Iosco | 6,583 | 7,309 | 295 | 14,187 | -726 | 46.40% | 51.52% | -5.12% |
| Iron | 2,947 | 3,080 | 135 | 6,162 | -133 | 47.83% | 49.98% | -2.16% |
| Keweenaw | 756 | 610 | 44 | 1,410 | 146 | 53.62% | 43.26% | 10.35% |
| Luce | 1490 | 1,191 | 59 | 2,740 | 299 | 54.38% | 43.47% | 10.91% |
| Mackinac | 3,268 | 3,027 | 38 | 6,333 | 241 | 51.60% | 47.80% | 3.81% |
| Marquette | 12,906 | 19,635 | 634 | 33,175 | -6729 | 38.90% | 59.19% | -20.28% |
| Menominee | 4,855 | 5,981 | 236 | 11,072 | -1126 | 43.85% | 54.02% | -10.17% |
| Montmorency | 2,841 | 2,403 | 116 | 5,360 | 438 | 53.00% | 44.83% | 8.17% |
| Ogemaw | 5,133 | 5,391 | 244 | 10,768 | -258 | 47.67% | 50.07% | -2.40% |
| Ontonagon | 1,823 | 1,966 | 96 | 3,885 | -143 | 46.92% | 50.60% | -3.68% |
| Oscoda | 2,320 | 1,887 | 121 | 4,328 | 433 | 53.60% | 43.60% | 10.00% |
| Otsego | 6,752 | 5,634 | 230 | 12,616 | 1118 | 53.52% | 44.66% | 8.86% |
| Presque Isle | 3,606 | 3,722 | 177 | 7,505 | -116 | 48.05% | 49.59% | -1.55% |
| Schoolcraft | 2,058 | 2,184 | 83 | 4,325 | -126 | 47.58% | 50.50% | -2.91% |
| Bay County: |
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| City of Auburn | 590 | 591 | 15 | 1,196 | -1 | 49.33% | 49.41% | -0.08% |
| Beaver Twp | 796 | 744 | 26 | 1,566 | 52 | 50.83% | 47.51% | 3.32% |
| Fraser Twp | 715 | 1,006 | 32 | 1,753 | -291 | 40.79% | 57.39% | -16.60% |
| Garfield Twp | 425 | 500 | 13 | 938 | -75 | 45.31% | 53.30% | -8.00% |
| Gibson Twp | 239 | 294 | 14 | 547 | -55 | 43.69% | 53.75% | -10.05% |
| Kawkawlin Twp | 1,187 | 1,391 | 52 | 2,630 | -204 | 45.13% | 52.89% | -7.76% |
| City of Midland (1) | 22 | 41 | 1 | 64 | -19 | 34.38% | 64.06% | -29.69% |
| Monitor Twp (3) | 650 | 520 | 20 | 1,190 | 130 | 54.62% | 43.70% | 10.92% |
| Monitor Twp (5) | 619 | 644 | 20 | 1,283 | -25 | 48.25% | 50.19% | -1.95% |
| Mount Forest Twp | 342 | 383 | 22 | 747 | -41 | 45.78% | 51.27% | -5.49% |
| City of Pinconning | 200 | 378 | 11 | 589 | -178 | 33.96% | 64.18% | -30.22% |
| Pinconning Twp | 614 | 700 | 22 | 1,336 | -86 | 45.96% | 52.40% | -6.44% |
| Portsmouth Twp | 855 | 1,108 | 25 | 1,988 | -253 | 43.01% | 55.73% | -12.73% |
| Williams Twp | 1,404 | 1,331 | 54 | 2,789 | 73 | 50.34% | 47.72% | 2.62% |
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| Total | 160,874 | 167,152 | 6,344 | 334,370 | -6278 | 48.11% | 49.99% | -1.88% |
That was the 08, which was a big swing from the 04 and 00 elections, where Bush won this district quite easily. 08 was Obama's year, and this is no different. The Western UP (Wisconsin area) returned to the democrat roots, and Marquette was even more democrat than usual. Even still, Obama could not quite break the 50% barrier due to 3rd party votes. While Obama won big in Bay County overall, he was held to 51.74% in this portion of the county. This part of Bay County does not have Bay City.
The other big dem year recently was 06. There are a large number of state workers in the 1st district. Mostly in corrections or the DNR (you can almost throw in MEA as well, but they are strong statewide). While the numbers in the end statewide were similar between Granholm 06 and Obama 08, a closer look shows that is not the case by district. Much as Bush 00 and Posthumus 02's numbers were similar statewide, but different by district. Obama's win was due more to the minority votes and a major swing in the west side. DeVos was whacked more in rural areas in general. Democrats always do better in the 1st district in gubernatorial years as well. This was no different. Granholm outpaced Obama in a big way.
| 2006 Election | DeVos | Granholm | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Alcona | 2,583 | 2,793 | 88 | 5,464 | -210 | 47.27% | 51.12% | -3.84% |
| Alger | 1,422 | 2,285 | 59 | 3,766 | -863 | 37.76% | 60.67% | -22.92% |
| Alpena | 4,689 | 7,187 | 154 | 12,030 | -2498 | 38.98% | 59.74% | -20.76% |
| Antrim | 6,115 | 5,103 | 170 | 11,388 | 1012 | 53.70% | 44.81% | 8.89% |
| Arenac | 2,805 | 3,737 | 102 | 6,644 | -932 | 42.22% | 56.25% | -14.03% |
| Baraga | 1,220 | 1,952 | 59 | 3,231 | -732 | 37.76% | 60.41% | -22.66% |
| Bay | 0 | 0 |
| - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
| Charlevoix | 5,621 | 5,237 | 268 | 11,126 | 384 | 50.52% | 47.07% | 3.45% |
| Cheboygan | 5,891 | 5,457 | 212 | 11,560 | 434 | 50.96% | 47.21% | 3.75% |
| Chippewa | 5,564 | 7,463 | 184 | 13,211 | -1899 | 42.12% | 56.49% | -14.37% |
| Crawford | 2,765 | 2,932 | 106 | 5,803 | -167 | 47.65% | 50.53% | -2.88% |
| Delta | 5,973 | 8,792 | 180 | 14,945 | -2819 | 39.97% | 58.83% | -18.86% |
| Dickinson | 4,372 | 5,251 | 145 | 9,768 | -879 | 44.76% | 53.76% | -9.00% |
| Emmet | 7,442 | 6,401 | 228 | 14,071 | 1041 | 52.89% | 45.49% | 7.40% |
| Gladwin | 4,962 | 5,588 | 211 | 10,761 | -626 | 46.11% | 51.93% | -5.82% |
| Gogebic | 2,216 | 3,821 | 124 | 6,161 | -1605 | 35.97% | 62.02% | -26.05% |
| Houghton | 5,275 | 6,497 | 200 | 11,972 | -1222 | 44.06% | 54.27% | -10.21% |
| Iosco | 5,006 | 6,043 | 172 | 11,221 | -1037 | 44.61% | 53.85% | -9.24% |
| Iron | 1,914 | 2,843 | 81 | 4,838 | -929 | 39.56% | 58.76% | -19.20% |
| Keweenaw | 507 | 632 | 22 | 1,161 | -125 | 43.67% | 54.44% | -10.77% |
| Luce | 789 | 1,495 | 28 | 2,312 | -706 | 34.13% | 64.66% | -30.54% |
| Mackinac | 2,540 | 2,879 | 64 | 5,483 | -339 | 46.33% | 52.51% | -6.18% |
| Marquette | 7,773 | 16,341 | 291 | 24,405 | -8568 | 31.85% | 66.96% | -35.11% |
| Menominee | 3,397 | 4,114 | 157 | 7,668 | -717 | 44.30% | 53.65% | -9.35% |
| Montmorency | 2,394 | 2,128 | 89 | 4,611 | 266 | 51.92% | 46.15% | 5.77% |
| Ogemaw | 4,109 | 4,561 | 143 | 8,813 | -452 | 46.62% | 51.75% | -5.13% |
| Ontonagon | 1,318 | 1,782 | 48 | 3,148 | -464 | 41.87% | 56.61% | -14.74% |
| Oscoda | 1,850 | 1,638 | 65 | 3,553 | 212 | 52.07% | 46.10% | 5.97% |
| Otsego | 5,644 | 4,465 | 168 | 10,277 | 1179 | 54.92% | 43.45% | 11.47% |
| Presque Isle | 2,775 | 3,515 | 91 | 6,381 | -740 | 43.49% | 55.09% | -11.60% |
| Schoolcraft | 1,395 | 1,973 | 58 | 3,426 | -578 | 40.72% | 57.59% | -16.87% |
| Bay County: |
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| City of Auburn | 443 | 552 | 10 | 1,005 | -109 | 44.08% | 54.93% | -10.85% |
| Beaver Twp | 579 | 697 | 18 | 1,294 | -118 | 44.74% | 53.86% | -9.12% |
| Fraser Twp | 488 | 958 | 25 | 1,471 | -470 | 33.17% | 65.13% | -31.95% |
| Garfield Twp | 272 | 480 | 25 | 777 | -208 | 35.01% | 61.78% | -26.77% |
| Gibson Twp | 183 | 251 | 9 | 443 | -68 | 41.31% | 56.66% | -15.35% |
| Kawkawlin Twp | 860 | 1,247 | 36 | 2,143 | -387 | 40.13% | 58.19% | -18.06% |
| City of Midland (1) | 22 | 23 | 1 | 46 | -1 | 47.83% | 50.00% | -2.17% |
| Monitor Twp (3) | 456 | 494 | 12 | 962 | -38 | 47.40% | 51.35% | -3.95% |
| Monitor Twp (5) | 431 | 539 | 9 | 979 | -108 | 44.02% | 55.06% | -11.03% |
| Mount Forest Twp | 273 | 336 | 4 | 613 | -63 | 44.54% | 54.81% | -10.28% |
| City of Pinconning | 182 | 306 | 7 | 495 | -124 | 36.77% | 61.82% | -25.05% |
| Pinconning Twp | 436 | 649 | 13 | 1,098 | -213 | 39.71% | 59.11% | -19.40% |
| Portsmouth Twp | 623 | 1,092 | 26 | 1,741 | -469 | 35.78% | 62.72% | -26.94% |
| Williams Twp | 1,026 | 1,245 | 33 | 2,304 | -219 | 44.53% | 54.04% | -9.51% |
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| Total | 116,600 | 143,774 | 4,195 | 264,569 | -27174 | 44.07% | 54.34% | -10.27% |
Compare these to 2004 (Bush/Kerry), 2002 (Posthumus), and 2000 (Bush/Gore) at the top of the ticket.
2004 was the high water mark. Can you ask for a better opponent than John Kerry? I knew that was won (nationally) as soon as he won the nomination. I wasn't laughing at Dean or Edwards though. Bush won all the counties except Alger, Arenac, Gogebic, Marquette, and the portion of Bay County in the district which he lost 50.48%-48.51%. Bush won the district by 7.69% margin.
| 2004 Election | Bush | Kerry | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Alcona | 3,592 | 2,871 | 68 | 6,531 | 721 | 55.00% | 43.96% | 11.04% |
| Alger | 2,318 | 2,395 | 52 | 4,765 | -77 | 48.65% | 50.26% | -1.62% |
| Alpena | 7,665 | 7,407 | 139 | 15,211 | 258 | 50.39% | 48.70% | 1.70% |
| Antrim | 8,379 | 5,072 | 168 | 13,619 | 3307 | 61.52% | 37.24% | 24.28% |
| Arenac | 4,071 | 4,076 | 69 | 8,216 | -5 | 49.55% | 49.61% | -0.06% |
| Baraga | 1,977 | 1,660 | 47 | 3,684 | 317 | 53.66% | 45.06% | 8.60% |
| Bay | 0 | 0 |
| - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
| Charlevoix | 8,214 | 5,729 | 196 | 14,139 | 2485 | 58.09% | 40.52% | 17.58% |
| Cheboygan | 7,798 | 5,941 | 138 | 13,877 | 1857 | 56.19% | 42.81% | 13.38% |
| Chippewa | 9,122 | 7,203 | 163 | 16,488 | 1919 | 55.33% | 43.69% | 11.64% |
| Crawford | 4,017 | 3,126 | 92 | 7,235 | 891 | 55.52% | 43.21% | 12.32% |
| Delta | 9,680 | 9,381 | 177 | 19,238 | 299 | 50.32% | 48.76% | 1.55% |
| Dickinson | 7,734 | 5,650 | 166 | 13,550 | 2084 | 57.08% | 41.70% | 15.38% |
| Emmet | 10,332 | 6,846 | 204 | 17,382 | 3486 | 59.44% | 39.39% | 20.06% |
| Gladwin | 6,770 | 6,343 | 114 | 13,227 | 427 | 51.18% | 47.95% | 3.23% |
| Gogebic | 3,935 | 4,421 | 86 | 8,442 | -486 | 46.61% | 52.37% | -5.76% |
| Houghton | 8,889 | 6,731 | 231 | 15,851 | 2158 | 56.08% | 42.46% | 13.61% |
| Iosco | 7,301 | 6,557 | 148 | 14,006 | 744 | 52.13% | 46.82% | 5.31% |
| Iron | 3,224 | 3,215 | 72 | 6,511 | 9 | 49.52% | 49.38% | 0.14% |
| Keweenaw | 781 | 630 | 28 | 1,439 | 151 | 54.27% | 43.78% | 10.49% |
| Luce | 1749 | 1,045 | 35 | 2,829 | 704 | 61.82% | 36.94% | 24.89% |
| Mackinac | 3,706 | 2,819 | 84 | 6,609 | 887 | 56.08% | 42.65% | 13.42% |
| Marquette | 14,690 | 17,412 | 386 | 32,488 | -2722 | 45.22% | 53.60% | -8.38% |
| Menominee | 5,942 | 5,326 | 151 | 11,419 | 616 | 52.04% | 46.64% | 5.39% |
| Montmorency | 3,300 | 2,196 | 67 | 5,563 | 1104 | 59.32% | 39.48% | 19.85% |
| Ogemaw | 5,454 | 5,215 | 127 | 10,796 | 239 | 50.52% | 48.30% | 2.21% |
| Ontonagon | 2,262 | 1,863 | 67 | 4,192 | 399 | 53.96% | 44.44% | 9.52% |
| Oscoda | 2,570 | 1,792 | 47 | 4,409 | 778 | 58.29% | 40.64% | 17.65% |
| Otsego | 7,470 | 4,674 | 163 | 12,307 | 2796 | 60.70% | 37.98% | 22.72% |
| Presque Isle | 3,982 | 3,432 | 102 | 7,516 | 550 | 52.98% | 45.66% | 7.32% |
| Schoolcraft | 2,267 | 2,137 | 37 | 4,441 | 130 | 51.05% | 48.12% | 2.93% |
| Bay County: |
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| City of Auburn | 641 | 537 | 7 | 1,185 | 104 | 54.09% | 45.32% | 8.78% |
| Beaver Twp | 792 | 691 | 16 | 1,499 | 101 | 52.84% | 46.10% | 6.74% |
| Fraser Twp | 768 | 992 | 11 | 1,771 | -224 | 43.37% | 56.01% | -12.65% |
| Garfield Twp | 391 | 542 | 15 | 948 | -151 | 41.24% | 57.17% | -15.93% |
| Gibson Twp | 261 | 293 | 5 | 559 | -32 | 46.69% | 52.42% | -5.72% |
| Kawkawlin Twp | 1,271 | 1,377 | 25 | 2,673 | -106 | 47.55% | 51.52% | -3.97% |
| City of Midland (1) | 10 | 28 | 0 | 38 | -18 | 26.32% | 73.68% | -47.37% |
| Monitor Twp (3) | 474 | 333 | 7 | 814 | 141 | 58.23% | 40.91% | 17.32% |
| Monitor Twp (5) | 434 | 377 | 13 | 824 | 57 | 52.67% | 45.75% | 6.92% |
| Mount Forest Twp | 337 | 401 | 15 | 753 | -64 | 44.75% | 53.25% | -8.50% |
| City of Pinconning | 249 | 377 | 9 | 635 | -128 | 39.21% | 59.37% | -20.16% |
| Pinconning Twp | 628 | 686 | 12 | 1,326 | -58 | 47.36% | 51.73% | -4.37% |
| Portsmouth Twp | 912 | 1,089 | 17 | 2,018 | -177 | 45.19% | 53.96% | -8.77% |
| Williams Twp | 1,446 | 1,240 | 27 | 2,713 | 206 | 53.30% | 45.71% | 7.59% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total | 177,805 | 152,128 | 3,803 | 333,736 | 25677 | 53.28% | 45.58% | 7.69% |
2002 was a year of what could have been if the idiot pundits (excluding myself since I actually thought Posthumus could win) didn't concede the race before it began. Posthumus won the district, which is surprising for a state level candidate. It was close. He won with 50.07% of the vote, and it was strictly on lower Michigan votes. The UP's historical democrat leanings are still strong in state level races.
| 2002 Election | Posthumus | Granholm | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Alcona | 2,387 | 2,165 | 35 | 4,587 | 222 | 52.04% | 47.20% | 4.84% |
| Alger | 1,623 | 1,855 | 49 | 3,527 | -232 | 46.02% | 52.59% | -6.58% |
| Alpena | 4,722 | 6,391 | 110 | 11,223 | -1669 | 42.07% | 56.95% | -14.87% |
| Antrim | 5,576 | 3,752 | 129 | 9,457 | 1824 | 58.96% | 39.67% | 19.29% |
| Arenac | 2,611 | 2,821 | 74 | 5,506 | -210 | 47.42% | 51.24% | -3.81% |
| Baraga | 1,170 | 1,263 | 47 | 2,480 | -93 | 47.18% | 50.93% | -3.75% |
| Bay | 0 | 0 |
| - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
| Charlevoix | 5,608 | 3,836 | 173 | 9,617 | 1772 | 58.31% | 39.89% | 18.43% |
| Cheboygan | 5,268 | 4,107 | 112 | 9,487 | 1161 | 55.53% | 43.29% | 12.24% |
| Chippewa | 5,357 | 5,428 | 113 | 10,898 | -71 | 49.16% | 49.81% | -0.65% |
| Crawford | 2,566 | 2,233 | 93 | 4,892 | 333 | 52.45% | 45.65% | 6.81% |
| Delta | 6,590 | 6,862 | 172 | 13,624 | -272 | 48.37% | 50.37% | -2.00% |
| Dickinson | 4,358 | 3,882 | 113 | 8,353 | 476 | 52.17% | 46.47% | 5.70% |
| Emmet | 7,111 | 4,330 | 212 | 11,653 | 2781 | 61.02% | 37.16% | 23.87% |
| Gladwin | 4,569 | 4,350 | 112 | 9,031 | 219 | 50.59% | 48.17% | 2.42% |
| Gogebic | 2,308 | 3,292 | 86 | 5,686 | -984 | 40.59% | 57.90% | -17.31% |
| Houghton | 5,119 | 5,026 | 205 | 10,350 | 93 | 49.46% | 48.56% | 0.90% |
| Iosco | 4,817 | 5,031 | 151 | 9,999 | -214 | 48.17% | 50.32% | -2.14% |
| Iron | 2,017 | 2,429 | 93 | 4,539 | -412 | 44.44% | 53.51% | -9.08% |
| Keweenaw | 545 | 482 | 21 | 1,048 | 63 | 52.00% | 45.99% | 6.01% |
| Luce | 889 | 1,016 | 39 | 1,944 | -127 | 45.73% | 52.26% | -6.53% |
| Mackinac | 2,425 | 2,206 | 35 | 4,666 | 219 | 51.97% | 47.28% | 4.69% |
| Marquette | 8,906 | 12,779 | 465 | 22,150 | -3873 | 40.21% | 57.69% | -17.49% |
| Menominee | 3,576 | 3,335 | 124 | 7,035 | 241 | 50.83% | 47.41% | 3.43% |
| Montmorency | 2,231 | 1,722 | 57 | 4,010 | 509 | 55.64% | 42.94% | 12.69% |
| Ogemaw | 3,689 | 3,727 | 107 | 7,523 | -38 | 49.04% | 49.54% | -0.51% |
| Ontonagon | 1,334 | 1,301 | 54 | 2,689 | 33 | 49.61% | 48.38% | 1.23% |
| Oscoda | 1,669 | 1,242 | 58 | 2,969 | 427 | 56.21% | 41.83% | 14.38% |
| Otsego | 4,982 | 3,346 | 145 | 8,473 | 1636 | 58.80% | 39.49% | 19.31% |
| Presque Isle | 2,862 | 2,717 | 64 | 5,643 | 145 | 50.72% | 48.15% | 2.57% |
| Schoolcraft | 1,468 | 1,707 | 49 | 3,224 | -239 | 45.53% | 52.95% | -7.41% |
| Bay County: |
|
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|
|
| City of Auburn | 441 | 372 | 5 | 818 | 69 | 53.91% | 45.48% | 8.44% |
| Beaver Twp | 547 | 472 | 22 | 1,041 | 75 | 52.55% | 45.34% | 7.20% |
| Fraser Twp | 522 | 657 | 15 | 1,194 | -135 | 43.72% | 55.03% | -11.31% |
| Garfield Twp | 302 | 311 | 9 | 622 | -9 | 48.55% | 50.00% | -1.45% |
| Gibson Twp | 187 | 169 | 5 | 361 | 18 | 51.80% | 46.81% | 4.99% |
| Kawkawlin Twp | 914 | 963 | 22 | 1,899 | -49 | 48.13% | 50.71% | -2.58% |
| City of Midland (1) | 9 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 64.29% | 35.71% | 28.57% |
| Monitor Twp (3) | 394 | 270 | 2 | 666 | 124 | 59.16% | 40.54% | 18.62% |
| Monitor Twp (5) | 321 | 293 | 5 | 619 | 28 | 51.86% | 47.33% | 4.52% |
| Mount Forest Twp | 242 | 215 | 13 | 470 | 27 | 51.49% | 45.74% | 5.74% |
| City of Pinconning | 176 | 240 | 10 | 426 | -64 | 41.31% | 56.34% | -15.02% |
| Pinconning Twp | 428 | 437 | 11 | 876 | -9 | 48.86% | 49.89% | -1.03% |
| Portsmouth Twp | 617 | 774 | 21 | 1,412 | -157 | 43.70% | 54.82% | -11.12% |
| Williams Twp | 964 | 810 | 32 | 1,806 | 154 | 53.38% | 44.85% | 8.53% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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| Total | 114,417 | 110,621 | 3,469 | 228,507 | 3796 | 50.07% | 48.41% | 1.66% |
2000 was the start of a change in Northern Michigan from it's democrat swing in the 1990's. Bush won the UP, which I'm not sure his dad was able to even do. I think the UP may have gone to Dukakis, although I'm not certain.
| 2000 Election | Bush | Gore | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Alcona | 3,152 | 2,696 | 149 | 5,997 | 456 | 52.56% | 44.96% | 7.60% |
| Alger | 2,142 | 2,071 | 153 | 4,366 | 71 | 49.06% | 47.43% | 1.63% |
| Alpena | 6,769 | 7,053 | 310 | 14,132 | -284 | 47.90% | 49.91% | -2.01% |
| Antrim | 6,780 | 4,329 | 438 | 11,547 | 2451 | 58.72% | 37.49% | 21.23% |
| Arenac | 3,421 | 3,685 | 161 | 7,267 | -264 | 47.08% | 50.71% | -3.63% |
| Baraga | 1,836 | 1,400 | 157 | 3,393 | 436 | 54.11% | 41.26% | 12.85% |
| Bay | 0 | 0 |
| - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
| Charlevoix | 7,018 | 4,958 | 511 | 12,487 | 2060 | 56.20% | 39.71% | 16.50% |
| Cheboygan | 6,815 | 5,484 | 318 | 12,617 | 1331 | 54.01% | 43.47% | 10.55% |
| Chippewa | 7,526 | 6,370 | 458 | 14,354 | 1156 | 52.43% | 44.38% | 8.05% |
| Crawford | 3,345 | 2,790 | 221 | 6,356 | 555 | 52.63% | 43.90% | 8.73% |
| Delta | 8,871 | 7,970 | 472 | 17,313 | 901 | 51.24% | 46.03% | 5.20% |
| Dickinson | 6,932 | 5,533 | 367 | 12,832 | 1399 | 54.02% | 43.12% | 10.90% |
| Emmet | 8,602 | 5,451 | 658 | 14,711 | 3151 | 58.47% | 37.05% | 21.42% |
| Gladwin | 5,743 | 5,573 | 313 | 11,629 | 170 | 49.39% | 47.92% | 1.46% |
| Gogebic | 3,929 | 4,066 | 344 | 8,339 | -137 | 47.12% | 48.76% | -1.64% |
| Houghton | 7,895 | 5,688 | 633 | 14,216 | 2207 | 55.54% | 40.01% | 15.52% |
| Iosco | 6,345 | 6,505 | 372 | 13,222 | -160 | 47.99% | 49.20% | -1.21% |
| Iron | 2,967 | 3,014 | 207 | 6,188 | -47 | 47.95% | 48.71% | -0.76% |
| Keweenaw | 740 | 540 | 63 | 1,343 | 200 | 55.10% | 40.21% | 14.89% |
| Luce | 1480 | 956 | 100 | 2,536 | 524 | 58.36% | 37.70% | 20.66% |
| Mackinac | 3,272 | 2,533 | 165 | 5,970 | 739 | 54.81% | 42.43% | 12.38% |
| Marquette | 12,577 | 15,503 | 1099 | 29,179 | -2926 | 43.10% | 53.13% | -10.03% |
| Menominee | 5,529 | 4,597 | 308 | 10,434 | 932 | 52.99% | 44.06% | 8.93% |
| Montmorency | 2,750 | 2,139 | 120 | 5,009 | 611 | 54.90% | 42.70% | 12.20% |
| Ogemaw | 4,706 | 4,896 | 253 | 9,855 | -190 | 47.75% | 49.68% | -1.93% |
| Ontonagon | 2,472 | 1,514 | 165 | 4,151 | 958 | 59.55% | 36.47% | 23.08% |
| Oscoda | 2,207 | 1,677 | 108 | 3,992 | 530 | 55.29% | 42.01% | 13.28% |
| Otsego | 6,108 | 4,034 | 363 | 10,505 | 2074 | 58.14% | 38.40% | 19.74% |
| Presque Isle | 3,660 | 3,242 | 178 | 7,080 | 418 | 51.69% | 45.79% | 5.90% |
| Schoolcraft | 2,088 | 2,036 | 77 | 4,201 | 52 | 49.70% | 48.46% | 1.24% |
| Bay County: |
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|
|
| City of Auburn | 551 | 488 | 26 | 1,065 | 63 | 51.74% | 45.82% | 5.92% |
| Beaver Twp | 664 | 618 | 35 | 1,317 | 46 | 50.42% | 46.92% | 3.49% |
| Fraser Twp | 698 | 837 | 34 | 1,569 | -139 | 44.49% | 53.35% | -8.86% |
| Garfield Twp | 347 | 431 | 17 | 795 | -84 | 43.65% | 54.21% | -10.57% |
| Gibson Twp | 232 | 236 | 9 | 477 | -4 | 48.64% | 49.48% | -0.84% |
| Kawkawlin Twp | 1,104 | 1,194 | 52 | 2,350 | -90 | 46.98% | 50.81% | -3.83% |
| City of Midland (1) | 17 | 31 | 0 | 48 | -14 | 35.42% | 64.58% | -29.17% |
| Monitor Twp (3) | 413 | 332 | 4 | 749 | 81 | 55.14% | 44.33% | 10.81% |
| Monitor Twp (5) | 373 | 362 | 17 | 752 | 11 | 49.60% | 48.14% | 1.46% |
| Mount Forest Twp | 308 | 305 | 14 | 627 | 3 | 49.12% | 48.64% | 0.48% |
| City of Pinconning | 239 | 323 | 10 | 572 | -84 | 41.78% | 56.47% | -14.69% |
| Pinconning Twp | 541 | 566 | 25 | 1,132 | -25 | 47.79% | 50.00% | -2.21% |
| Portsmouth Twp | 749 | 1,036 | 45 | 1,830 | -287 | 40.93% | 56.61% | -15.68% |
| Williams Twp | 1,181 | 1,034 | 46 | 2,261 | 147 | 52.23% | 45.73% | 6.50% |
|
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| Total | 155,094 | 136,096 | 9,575 | 300,765 | 18998 | 51.57% | 45.25% | 6.32% |
The farm club here is vast because of the geography, with democrats having a big advantage with Northern Michigan districts.
St. Senate 38 - Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keewenaw, Luce, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, and Schoolcraft counties. Prusi is termed out.
| St Senate 38th | GOP | Dem |
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| 06 - Mackin/Prusi | 27974 | 66307 |
| 94,281 | -38333 | 29.67% | 70.33% | -40.66% |
| 02 - Schoenow/Prusi | 33063 | 51348 |
| 84,411 | -18285 | 39.17% | 60.83% | -21.66% |
St. Senate 37 - Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Mackinac, and Presque Isle counties. Grand Traverse County is not in the 1st district, and I believe Jason Allen is from that county.
| St Senate 37th | GOP | Dem |
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| 06 - Allen/Unger | 63,479 | 43,476 |
| 106,955 | 20003 | 59.35% | 40.65% | 18.70% |
| 02 - Allen/Estes | 53,490 | 35,852 |
| 89,342 | 17638 | 59.87% | 40.13% | 19.74% |
St. Senate 36 - Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco, Midland, Montmorency, Ogemaw, and Otsego counties. Tony Stamas is from Midland which is not in the 1st District, but one of the anchors of the 4th district. Andy Neumann, Stamas's opponent from 02, is from Alpena and in the district. He's rumored to be running again for this district in 2010.
| St Senate 35th | GOP | Dem |
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| 06 - Stamas/Reid | 65,079 | 39,757 | 18 | 104,854 | 25322 | 62.07% | 37.92% | 24.15% |
| 02 - Stamas/Neumann | 46,511 | 44,487 |
| 90,998 | 2024 | 51.11% | 48.89% | 2.22% |
St. Senate 31 - Arenac, Bay, Huron, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. Only Arenac, and part of Bay County is in the district. Jim Barcia I believe is from Bay City, but he represented part of the 1st in his old 5th District.
| St Senate 31st | GOP | Dem |
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| 06 - Nuncio/Barcia | 23,569 | 78,923 | 1441 | 103,933 | -55354 | 22.68% | 75.94% | -53.26% |
| 02 - Green/Barcia | 35,486 | 54,352 |
| 89,838 | -18866 | 39.50% | 60.50% | -21.00% |
St Rep 110 - Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, and Ontonagon Counties. Powell Township in Marquette County is also in this district. A similar district was close in 2000, but it has been solid democrat since. I'm not sure it has gone Republican since the pre-mining days. It's winnable and went for Bush twice, but only in a real good year at a state rep level. This is still Joe Mack country.
| St Rep 110th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Larson/Lahti | 11,302 | 26,995 |
| 38,297 | -15693 | 29.51% | 70.49% | -40.98% |
| 06 - Schmidt/Lahti | 10,357 | 19,361 | 820 | 30,538 | -9004 | 33.92% | 63.40% | -29.48% |
| 04 - Ashcraft/Brown | 9,845 | 26,754 | 2607 | 39,206 | -16909 | 25.11% | 68.24% | -43.13% |
| 02 - Fay/Brown | 7,812 | 18,544 |
| 26,356 | -10732 | 29.64% | 70.36% | -40.72% |
St Rep 109th - Alger, Luce, most of Marquette County, and Schoolcraft County - This is the most democrat district in the UP. John Kerry won this district which is anchored by Marquette, the largest city and county in the 1st district (as Bay City is in the 5th).
| St Rep 109th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Takalo/Lindberg | 12,444 | 26,766 | 2870 | 42,080 | -14322 | 29.57% | 63.61% | -34.04% |
| 06 - Westrom/Lindberg | 10,508 | 21,428 |
| 31,936 | -10920 | 32.90% | 67.10% | -34.19% |
| 04 - Kaltenbach/Adamini | 13,760 | 28,081 |
| 41,841 | -14321 | 32.89% | 67.11% | -34.23% |
| 02 - Hafeman/Adamini | 8,954 | 20,396 |
| 29,350 | -11442 | 30.51% | 69.49% | -38.98% |
St. Rep 108th - Delta, Dickinson, and Menominee Counties. This district was democrat until Casperson won it in 2002 in an upset over Laurie Stupak (Bart's wife). Bush won it twice (as he did the Green Bay area in Wisconsin), but it returned to its roots in 2008 at the state level. Obama also did well in the "Wisconsin" part of the UP, as he did in Green Bay, despite being a "FIB." I'll say the I in "FIB" stands for Illinois, and I'll let you figure out the F and B portions...
| St Rep 108th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Falcon/Nerat | 18,350 | 23,800 |
| 42,150 | -5450 | 43.53% | 56.47% | -12.93% |
| 06 - Casperson/Nerat | 17,817 | 14,298 |
| 32,115 | 3519 | 55.48% | 44.52% | 10.96% |
| 04 - Casperson/Baldinetti | 29,727 | 13,635 |
| 43,362 | 16092 | 68.56% | 31.44% | 37.11% |
| 02 - Casperson/Stupak | 15,009 | 13,982 |
| 28,991 | 1027 | 51.77% | 48.23% | 3.54% |
St. Rep 107th - Koehler and Tuscarora Townships in Cheboygan County, Chippewa, Emmet, and Mackinac Counties. This district was GOP until Gary McDowell upset Walt North in 2004. North was a former State Senator who made a fatal vote as he stepped down. He was the deciding vote against legalizing the hunting of mourning doves. The NRA gave him an F rating (surprised me since he voted for CCW) over than one vote and endorsed McDowell (which I didn't have a problem with at all - SAFR also endorsed McDowell, but gave North a mixed rating). McDowell is now termed out, and this should be a good pickup opportunity for the GOP, as long as they don't run someone unacceptable to the NRA, Right to Life, or Farm Bureau.
| St Rep 107th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Strobehn/McDowell | 14,500 | 27,304 |
| 41,804 | -12804 | 34.69% | 65.31% | -30.63% |
| 06 - Duggan/McDowell | 13,810 | 20,267 |
| 34,077 | -6457 | 40.53% | 59.47% | -18.95% |
| 04 - North/McDowell | 19,353 | 22,293 |
| 41,646 | -2940 | 46.47% | 53.53% | -7.06% |
| 02 - Shackleton/McDowell | 19,514 | 8,963 |
| 28,477 | 10551 | 68.53% | 31.47% | 37.05% |
St Rep 106th - Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle counties.
This is democrat leaning with Alpena anchoring the district, although it is competitive when it is open. Andy Neumann is termed out in 2010. He ran for State Senate in 2002 and lost a close race, and came back when his old seat opened up in 2008. Matt Gillard had the seat for 3 terms in between the Neumann stints.
| St Rep 106th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Pettalia/Neumann | 19,620 | 23,089 | 1353 | 44,062 | -3469 | 44.53% | 52.40% | -7.87% |
| 06 - Viegelahn/Gillard | 12,846 | 23,703 |
| 36,549 | -10857 | 35.15% | 64.85% | -29.71% |
| 04 - Fortier/Gillard | 18,498 | 25,834 |
| 44,332 | -7336 | 41.73% | 58.27% | -16.55% |
| 02 - Wyman/Gillard | 15,984 | 16,450 |
| 32,434 | -466 | 49.28% | 50.72% | -1.44% |
St. Rep 105th - Antrim, Charlevoix, Most of Cheboygan, and Otsego Counties.
The 105th is a solid GOP district, although primaries there can be vicious. (2002, and probably 2010) This seat opens up again in 2010, and several people are likely running for it.
| St Rep 105th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Elsenheimer/Saltonstall | 30,568 | 18,455 | 1354 | 50,377 | 12113 | 60.68% | 36.63% | 24.04% |
| 06 - Elsenheimer/Bauer | 26,291 | 14,635 |
| 40,926 | 11656 | 64.24% | 35.76% | 28.48% |
| 04 - Elsenheimer/McKinney | 30,765 | 18,644 |
| 49,409 | 12121 | 62.27% | 37.73% | 24.53% |
| 02 - Bradstreet/Webster | 21,609 | 12,203 |
| 33,812 | 9406 | 63.91% | 36.09% | 27.82% |
St Rep 103rd - Iosco, Missaukee, Ogemaw, and Roscommon counties.
It's a swing district if someone not named Sheltrown is not running. Missaukee is usually the 2nd most GOP county in the state. The other three are competitive but have some democrat leanings. Ogemaw County is probably the most democrat of the bunch. Sheltrown is termed out, although it may be kept in the family if there's another family member running. Joel Sheltrown took over for his brother Dale Sheltrown. Missaukee and Roscommon Counties are not in the 1st district. Ogemaw and Iosco Counties are.
| St Rep 103rd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Ryan/Sheltrown | 15,003 | 29,927 |
| 44,930 | -14924 | 33.39% | 66.61% | -33.22% |
| 06 - Moore/Sheltrown | 11,468 | 25,155 |
| 36,623 | -13687 | 31.31% | 68.69% | -37.37% |
| 04 - Rendon/Sheltrown | 19,648 | 25,535 |
| 45,183 | -5887 | 43.49% | 56.51% | -13.03% |
| 02 - Carlson/Sheltrown | 13,457 | 18,571 |
| 32,028 | -5114 | 42.02% | 57.98% | -15.97% |
St Rep 97th - Arenac, Clare, and Gladwin Counties. Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Mount Forest, and Pinconning Townships, and the city of Pinconning.
This seat flipped once after its creation in 2002. It went Democrat as an open seat, but flipped to the GOP in 2004 after the democrat voted against a gay marriage ban. It's a social conservative district, although quite populist and has some democrat leanings. Clare is not in the 1st district, although the rest of the district is in the 1st. Tim Moore is in Clare County, so he's in the 4th district. This will be a tossup seat in 2010 as Moore is termed out.
| St Rep 97th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Moore/Wilton | 25,996 | 16,877 |
| 42,873 | 9119 | 60.63% | 39.37% | 21.27% |
| 06 - Moore/Schwab | 18,893 | 16,321 |
| 35,214 | 2572 | 53.65% | 46.35% | 7.30% |
| 04 - Moore/Elkins | 22,320 | 20,883 |
| 43,203 | 1437 | 51.66% | 48.34% | 3.33% |
| 02 - Coker/Elkins | 14,137 | 14,480 |
| 28,617 | -343 | 49.40% | 50.60% | -1.20% |
96th District - Cities of Auburn, Bay City, Essexville, and Midland (precinct 1). Bangor, Beaver, Frankenlust, Hampton, Merritt, Monitor, Portsmouth, and Williams Township.
The 96th District is the 2nd most democrat district that has any portion in the 1st district. Most of this district is in the 5th district, including Bay City. Auburn, the Midland portion, two precincts of Monitor Township, Portsmouth, and Williams Townships are in the 1st. This district is the other district in the 1st that voted for John Kerry. Jeff Mayes, the incumbent, is from Bangor Township which is in the 5th District. This is not a liberal district, but it is a democrat district. Pro-life and pro-gun democrats are very common here.
| St Rep 96th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Rau/Mayes | 13,950 | 32,208 |
| 46,158 | -18258 | 30.22% | 69.78% | -39.56% |
| 06 - Schaefer/Mayes | 9,858 | 27,199 |
| 37,057 | -17341 | 26.60% | 73.40% | -46.80% |
| 04 - Goss/Mayes | 16,790 | 29,305 |
| 46,095 | -12515 | 36.42% | 63.58% | -27.15% |
| 02 - Begick/Rivet | 12,032 | 21,126 |
| 33,158 | -9094 | 36.29% | 63.71% | -27.43% |
The 2010 election is Stupak's to lose. Despite it being competitive on paper, Stupak is possibly the toughest candidate to knock out in Michigan. He beat a good candidate in Tom Casperson with 65%. Under the current boundaries, he won with 68%, 66%, and 69% all against Don Hooper, a frequent candidate. The old boundaries were more republican, but he survived 94 with 57%, and 98 (against another strong candidate in Michelle McManus) with 59%. Chuck Yob gave Stupak his roughest semi-recent numbers holding him to 58% in 2000 when the gun issue hurt Stupak. Stupak hasn't had a bad vote on guns since 2001. That flank is well protected.
Despite Cook having this a R+3 seat, Stupak consistently wins by over a 2-1 margin. I'd give the pickup chances here at about 10%. 1% of that is Stupak not running again. 5% is angry democrats going after him on the life issue (R pickup if that happens.) The other 4% is if there is an unexpected blunder. The only way Stupak goes down is if he gets a "gone national" reputation like Tom Daschle did with the democrats. It could happen, but I'm not going to put money on it. That aside, I believe in competing in all districts, and this one needs a good fight. I don't believe in conceding any race. Stupak has 18 years of votes. They can be looked at, scrutinized, and thrown back in his face.
One important aspect here is geography. Certain areas are an advantage to run from. Stupak being from the Green Bay section of the UP is an advantage as it is a swing part of the district. Yoopers in general will vote for yoopers over trolls. On the same note, trolls don't have a problem voting for yoopers. Probably the best chance at picking up an open seat here is running a strong yooper against a democrat with a Bay City, Charlevoix, Harbor Springs, or Petoskey address. Bay City is "Big City" and the other two areas have reputations for money. The other strategy would be to try and take the competitive northern lower portions by bigger than normal numbers. Bush actually won Alpena County, as well as Ogemaw and Iosco counties. Against someone like Stupak, this would be the better strategy as Stupak is a proven commodity in the U.P. With Stupak retiring, it's best to run a yooper, hopefully against a troll.
I think Saltonstall's chances are slim with her outspokenly pro-abortion views, and her Charlevoix address which will hurt her chances not just in the UP, but in the inland lower peninsula as well. I doubt she'll be the nominee however, and expect the dems to run someone stronger.Gary McDowell and Rich Brown I think are their best two shots. For the GOP, I think Tom Casperson is the best shot, although Benishek may surprise people.
Update 5-18 - With the filing deadline passed, the dems I think got one of their two best guys running in McDowell, and he's unopposed. I think of the GOP'ers running, Benishek is their best chance to win, although I wish Casperson or Shackleton would have run. Some national pundits think this is going to be an easy pickup, but we're going to need a little luck to take this seat. It's possible, but won't be easy.
I'd put the chances at 40% currently, depending on the candidate.
