Congressional District 2 - Redistricted (MI-02)

Incumbent - Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2.

Challenger - Willie German Jr (D-Muskegon)

The Previous Congressional District 1 information is here.

Due to population growth in West Michigan, this district (along with the 8th) actually had to contract.  It was and still is the strongest GOP district in Michigan overall, despite shedding some areas. The new district has a 2008 McCain vote spread of 8622 and Bush vote spread of 74005. Huizenga has a 60000 vote spread in the areas represented in the new district against his old opponent. The old district spreads were 11004 for McCain and 70434 for Bush. Much of that was due to dropping most of Northern Allegan County, which is arguably the most republican part of the entire state. It only keeps most of the city of Holland which is in two counties. Republican leaning Wexford County is dropped as well. It also drops Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties which are all competitive. It drops part of  Northern Kent County, but picks up Kentwood, Grandville, Walker, and Wyoming. The latter three lean Republican, Kentwood is treading blue fast. The rest of it stays the same.

This is the closest to a safe GOP district in Michigan. Ottawa County is still the most GOP county in the state. Muskegon County is a big blue sink and Lake County tilts dem, but Ottawa County outvotes both of those areas by a large margin. That's not going to change here. Despite worse partisan numbers, I think this district is safer for the GOP from a geography standpoint. There won't be a north lakeshore threat with the break being in Mason County. A Leelanau/Benzie green democrat is also less of a threat in the 1st district than he would be in the 2nd which is more Chicago influenced and less populist (outside Muskegon). I think Huizenga should have little trouble keeping this district.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Lake	2269	2919	5188	-650	43.74%	56.26%	-12.53%
Muskegon	29145	53821	82966	-24676	35.13%	64.87%	-29.74%
Newaygo	11862	10790	22652	1072	52.37%	47.63%	4.73%
Oceana	5860	6405	12265	-545	47.78%	52.22%	-4.44%
Ottawa	83330	50828	134158	32502	62.11%	37.89%	24.23%
Allegan:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Holland City (most)	2093	1391	3484	702	60.07%	39.93%	20.15%
Mason County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Amber Twp	689	640	1329	49	51.84%	48.16%	3.69%
Branch Twp	267	315	582	-48	45.88%	54.12%	-8.25%
Custer Twp	334	334	668	0	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
Eden Twp	119	180	299	-61	39.80%	60.20%	-20.40%
Hamlin Twp (part)	1058	1008	2066	50	51.21%	48.79%	2.42%
Logan Twp	80	91	171	-11	46.78%	53.22%	-6.43%
Ludington City	1755	2188	3943	-433	44.51%	55.49%	-10.98%
Pere Marquette	720	652	1372	68	52.48%	47.52%	4.96%
Riverton twp	317	309	626	8	50.64%	49.36%	1.28%
Scottville City	221	268	489	-47	45.19%	54.81%	-9.61%
Summit Twp	319	283	602	36	52.99%	47.01%	5.98%
Kent County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Walker City	6499	5648	12147	851	53.50%	46.50%	7.01%
Wyoming City	15042	15682	30724	-640	48.96%	51.04%	-2.08%
Grandville City	5555	3209	8764	2346	63.38%	36.62%	26.77%
Kentwood City	10636	12587	23223	-1951	45.80%	54.20%	-8.40%
Byron Twp (small part)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	178170	169548	347718	8622	51.24%	48.76%	2.48%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Lake	2502	2675	5177	-173	48.33%	51.67%	-3.34%
Muskegon	35302	44282	79584	-8980	44.36%	55.64%	-11.28%
Newaygo	13608	9057	22665	4551	60.04%	39.96%	20.08%
Oceana	6677	5441	12118	1236	55.10%	44.90%	10.20%
Ottawa	92048	35552	127600	56496	72.14%	27.86%	44.28%
Allegan:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Holland City (most)	2479	941	3420	1538	72.49%	27.51%	44.97%
Mason County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Amber Twp	698	464	1162	234	60.07%	39.93%	20.14%
Branch Twp	297	250	547	47	54.30%	45.70%	8.59%
Custer Twp	354	295	649	59	54.55%	45.45%	9.09%
Eden Twp	151	124	275	27	54.91%	45.09%	9.82%
Hamlin Twp (part)	1186	799	1985	387	59.75%	40.25%	19.50%
Logan Twp	90	74	164	16	54.88%	45.12%	9.76%
Ludington City	2056	1786	3842	270	53.51%	46.49%	7.03%
Pere Marquette	814	532	1346	282	60.48%	39.52%	20.95%
Riverton twp	389	236	625	153	62.24%	37.76%	24.48%
Scottville City	298	231	529	67	56.33%	43.67%	12.67%
Summit Twp	370	234	604	136	61.26%	38.74%	22.52%
Kent County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Walker City	7528	4472	12000	3056	62.73%	37.27%	25.47%
Wyoming City	18524	11979	30503	6545	60.73%	39.27%	21.46%
Grandville City	6567	2397	8964	4170	73.26%	26.74%	46.52%
Kentwood City	13014	9126	22140	3888	58.78%	41.22%	17.56%
Byron Twp (small part)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	204952	130947	335899	74005	61.02%	38.98%	22.03%
	Huizenga	Johnson	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Lake	1933	1472	3405	461	56.77%	43.23%	13.54%
Muskegon	24293	24102	48395	191	50.20%	49.80%	0.39%
Newaygo	9799	4243	14042	5556	69.78%	30.22%	39.57%
Oceana	5298	2699	7997	2599	66.25%	33.75%	32.50%
Ottawa	68087	20250	88337	47837	77.08%	22.92%	54.15%
Allegan:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Holland City (most)	1718	598	2316	1120	74.18%	25.82%	48.36%
Mason County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Amber Twp	616	242	858	374	71.79%	28.21%	43.59%
Branch Twp	228	104	332	124	68.67%	31.33%	37.35%
Custer Twp	281	132	413	149	68.04%	31.96%	36.08%
Eden Twp	126	71	197	55	63.96%	36.04%	27.92%
Hamlin Twp (part)	945	488	1433	457	65.95%	34.05%	31.89%
Logan Twp	79	50	129	29	61.24%	38.76%	22.48%
Ludington City	1509	958	2467	551	61.17%	38.83%	22.33%
Pere Marquette	675	302	977	373	69.09%	30.91%	38.18%
Riverton twp	290	131	421	159	68.88%	31.12%	37.77%
Scottville City	210	76	286	134	73.43%	26.57%	46.85%
Summit Twp	285	129	414	156	68.84%	31.16%	37.68%
Kent County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Walker City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Wyoming City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grandville City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Kentwood City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Byron Twp (small part)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	116372	56047	172419	60325	67.49%	32.51%	34.99%

Congressional District 1 - Redistricted (MI-01)

Incumbent - Dr. Dan Benishek (R-Iron River)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2.

Challengers - Gary McDowell (D-Rudyard)

Update - 5-16-2012 - Gary McDowell and Dan Benishek are in a rematch from 2010. 

The Previous Congressional District 1 information is here.

There is little minor change from the old first district in terms of partisanship. The old district had an approximate 6278 Obama vote spread. This one has an approximate 4706 Obama vote spread. The new district has a 38761 vote spread. The old district had a 25677 Bush spread, 3700 Posthumus vote spread, and 27000 Granholm spread. Given the history of the volatile politics and heavy number of independents Up North, this is still a swing district. It's conservative, but not republican. Bart Stupak's won here for years. I think he might have won re-election if he ran, too.

The changes are the additions of Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and part of Mason Counties. Grand Traverse and Kalkaska lean GOP. Leelanau and Mason County usually lean slightly GOP, but voted for Obama and Dan Scripps. Manistee County is a swing county. The district also loses Iosco, Arenac, Gladwin, Ogemaw, and its portion of Bay County. All of those areas are swing areas with various leanings except Bay County, which is democrat leaning in even the rural areas.

Dan Benishek won big in 2010. He beat the strongest democrat running by 25000 vote (21,000 in the current district). Part of that is due to the revolt against the democrats, Obamacare, Granholm, and spending. How will Obama affect things in 2012? He did very well on the sunset coast, which has a Chicago influence. I think Benishek's strongest attribute is his geography. This district votes for yoopers, even if "trolls" are now the majority. Yoopers often vote for yoopers over trolls. Trolls vote for either yoopers or trolls.

I can never call a North Michigan seat safe. I will say it leans GOP for now, depending on who runs for it. Sheltrown doesn't live in the district anymore. Barcia is further away from the district. McDowell, Nerat, Neumann, and Lahti lost their races. There's a couple of strong names to watch out for still. Rich Brown and Pat Gagliardi are the two that comes to mind. The bench is weaker for the dems than in the past, but it's still fairly deep.

Here's the two party (no 3rd party votes) results here for Obama, Bush 04, and Dan Benishek (from the portion in the district) in 2010.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alcona	3404	2896	6300	508	54.03%	45.97%	8.06%
Alger	2188	2472	4660	-284	46.95%	53.05%	-6.09%
Alpena	7125	7705	14830	-580	48.04%	51.96%	-3.91%
Antrim	7506	6079	13585	1427	55.25%	44.75%	10.50%
Baraga	1846	1725	3571	121	51.69%	48.31%	3.39%
Benzie	4687	5451	10138	-764	46.23%	53.77%	-7.54%
Charlevoix	7306	6817	14123	489	51.73%	48.27%	3.46%
Cheboygan	6920	6720	13640	200	50.73%	49.27%	1.47%
Chippewa	8267	8184	16451	83	50.25%	49.75%	0.50%
Crawford	3561	3441	7002	120	50.86%	49.14%	1.71%
Delta	8763	9974	18737	-1211	46.77%	53.23%	-6.46%
Dickinson	7049	5995	13044	1054	54.04%	45.96%	8.08%
Emmet	9314	8515	17829	799	52.24%	47.76%	4.48%
Gogebic	3330	4757	8087	-1427	41.18%	58.82%	-17.65%
Grand Traverse	24716	23258	47974	1458	51.52%	48.48%	3.04%
Houghton	8101	7476	15577	625	52.01%	47.99%	4.01%
Iron	2947	3080	6027	-133	48.90%	51.10%	-2.21%
Kalkaska	4527	3780	8307	747	54.50%	45.50%	8.99%
Keeweenaw	756	610	1366	146	55.34%	44.66%	10.69%
Leelanau	6938	7355	14293	-417	48.54%	51.46%	-2.92%
Luce	1490	1191	2681	299	55.58%	44.42%	11.15%
Mackinac	3268	3027	6295	241	51.91%	48.09%	3.83%
Manistee	5510	7235	12745	-1725	43.23%	56.77%	-13.53%
Marquette	12906	19635	32541	-6729	39.66%	60.34%	-20.68%
Menominee	4855	5981	10836	-1126	44.80%	55.20%	-10.39%
Montmorency	2841	2403	5244	438	54.18%	45.82%	8.35%
Ontonagon	1823	1966	3789	-143	48.11%	51.89%	-3.77%
Oscoda	2320	1887	4207	433	55.15%	44.85%	10.29%
Otsego	6752	5634	12386	1118	54.51%	45.49%	9.03%
Presque Isle	3606	3722	7328	-116	49.21%	50.79%	-1.58%
Schoolcraft	2058	2184	4242	-126	48.51%	51.49%	-2.97%
Mason County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Freesoil Twp	168	287	455	-119	36.92%	63.08%	-26.15%
Grant Twp	199	295	494	-96	40.28%	59.72%	-19.43%
Hamlin Twp (part)	1058	1008	2066	50	51.21%	48.79%	2.42%
Meade Twp	42	41	83	1	50.60%	49.40%	1.20%
Sheridan Twp	197	302	499	-105	39.48%	60.52%	-21.04%
Sherman Twp	276	297	573	-21	48.17%	51.83%	-3.66%
Victory Twp	386	327	713	59	54.14%	45.86%	8.27%
Total	179006	183712	362718	-4706	49.35%	50.65%	-1.30%
2004
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alcona	3592	2871	6463	721	55.58%	44.42%	11.16%
Alger	2318	2395	4713	-77	49.18%	50.82%	-1.63%
Alpena	7665	7407	15072	258	50.86%	49.14%	1.71%
Antrim	8379	5072	13451	3307	62.29%	37.71%	24.59%
Baraga	1977	1660	3637	317	54.36%	45.64%	8.72%
Benzie	5284	4383	9667	901	54.66%	45.34%	9.32%
Charlevoix	8214	5729	13943	2485	58.91%	41.09%	17.82%
Cheboygan	7798	5941	13739	1857	56.76%	43.24%	13.52%
Chippewa	9122	7203	16325	1919	55.88%	44.12%	11.75%
Crawford	4017	3126	7143	891	56.24%	43.76%	12.47%
Delta	9630	9381	19011	249	50.65%	49.35%	1.31%
Dickinson	7734	5650	13384	2084	57.79%	42.21%	15.57%
Emmet	10332	6846	17178	3486	60.15%	39.85%	20.29%
Gogebic	3935	4421	8356	-486	47.09%	52.91%	-5.82%
Grand Traverse	27446	18256	45702	9190	60.05%	39.95%	20.11%
Houghton	8889	6731	15620	2158	56.91%	43.09%	13.82%
Iron	3224	3215	6439	9	50.07%	49.93%	0.14%
Kalkaska	5084	3189	8273	1895	61.45%	38.55%	22.91%
Keeweenaw	781	630	1411	151	55.35%	44.65%	10.70%
Leelanau	7733	6048	13781	1685	56.11%	43.89%	12.23%
Luce	1749	1049	2798	700	62.51%	37.49%	25.02%
Mackinac	3706	2819	6525	887	56.80%	43.20%	13.59%
Manistee	6295	6272	12567	23	50.09%	49.91%	0.18%
Marquette	14690	17412	32102	-2722	45.76%	54.24%	-8.48%
Menominee	5942	5326	11268	616	52.73%	47.27%	5.47%
Montmorency	3300	2196	5496	1104	60.04%	39.96%	20.09%
Ontonagon	2262	1863	4125	399	54.84%	45.16%	9.67%
Oscoda	2570	1792	4362	778	58.92%	41.08%	17.84%
Otsego	7470	4674	12144	2796	61.51%	38.49%	23.02%
Presque Isle	3982	3432	7414	550	53.71%	46.29%	7.42%
Schoolcraft	2267	2137	4404	130	51.48%	48.52%	2.95%
Mason County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Freesoil Twp	210	274	484	-64	43.39%	56.61%	-13.22%
Grant Twp	203	245	448	-42	45.31%	54.69%	-9.38%
Hamlin Twp (part)	1186	799	1985	387	59.75%	40.25%	19.50%
Meade Twp	45	37	82	8	54.88%	45.12%	9.76%
Sheridan Twp	234	241	475	-7	49.26%	50.74%	-1.47%
Sherman Twp	324	240	564	84	57.45%	42.55%	14.89%
Victory Twp	405	271	676	134	59.91%	40.09%	19.82%
Total	199994	161233	361227	38761	55.37%	44.63%	10.73%
2010
	Benishek	McDowell	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Alcona	2603	1433	4036	1170	64.49%	35.51%	28.99%
Alger	1749	1761	3510	-12	49.83%	50.17%	-0.34%
Alpena	5569	3794	9363	1775	59.48%	40.52%	18.96%
Antrim	6041	3491	9532	2550	63.38%	36.62%	26.75%
Baraga	1382	1124	2506	258	55.15%	44.85%	10.30%
Benzie			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Charlevoix	5752	3767	9519	1985	60.43%	39.57%	20.85%
Cheboygan	5502	3905	9407	1597	58.49%	41.51%	16.98%
Chippewa	5477	5775	11252	-298	48.68%	51.32%	-2.65%
Crawford	2547	1805	4352	742	58.52%	41.48%	17.05%
Delta	6779	5730	12509	1049	54.19%	45.81%	8.39%
Dickinson	5577	3421	8998	2156	61.98%	38.02%	23.96%
Emmet	7397	5040	12437	2357	59.48%	40.52%	18.95%
Gogebic	2313	2759	5072	-446	45.60%	54.40%	-8.79%
Grand Traverse			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Houghton	6628	4926	11554	1702	57.37%	42.63%	14.73%
Iron	2432	1894	4326	538	56.22%	43.78%	12.44%
Kalkaska			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Keeweenaw	641	412	1053	229	60.87%	39.13%	21.75%
Leelanau			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Luce	1017	808	1825	209	55.73%	44.27%	11.45%
Mackinac	2351	2200	4551	151	51.66%	48.34%	3.32%
Manistee			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Marquette	9301	11181	20482	-1880	45.41%	54.59%	-9.18%
Menominee	3823	2998	6821	825	56.05%	43.95%	12.10%
Montmorency	2103	1314	3417	789	61.55%	38.45%	23.09%
Ontonagon	1455	1278	2733	177	53.24%	46.76%	6.48%
Oscoda	1520	946	2466	574	61.64%	38.36%	23.28%
Otsego	5133	2995	8128	2138	63.15%	36.85%	26.30%
Presque Isle	2914	2203	5117	711	56.95%	43.05%	13.89%
Schoolcraft	1587	1423	3010	164	52.72%	47.28%	5.45%
Mason County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Freesoil Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grant Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Hamlin Twp (part)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Meade Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Sheridan Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Sherman Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Victory Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	99593	78383	177976	21210	55.96%	44.04%	11.92%

Overall, I'd consider this a slight R lean, but not overwhelmingly so. North Michigan seats are tough defenses for the party in power if things aren't going well. It's just a very independent place with little to no tolerance for old fashion politicalspeak, regardless of party. This district will never be easy for anybody right now.

This ain't good. Sharron Angle wants to make a comeback.

Sharron Angle helped snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in Nevada. It's not all her fault with the RINOs backing Reid, but she has one of the biggest cases of foot in mouth disease in political history.

From Hotline

Republican Sharron Angle will pass on a Senate bid against Rep. Dean Heller (R) and will instead seek Heller's open 2nd congressional district seat, she says in a YouTube video posted Wednesday.

"The 2010 election was bittersweet," Angle says in the video. "Conservatives had some victories, but we still face obstacles from Democrats in Congress and the White House."

Angle's entrance into the GOP congressional primary likely clears the path for Heller in his Senate bid, but could set up a crowded and messy Republican race in the sprawling, largely rural northern district based in Reno and Carson City.

Angle isn't the only heavyweight who's eyeing the second congressional district -- Nevada GOP Chairman Mark Amodei and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki are also expected to get in. Kirk Lippold, who commanded the USS Cole when it was attacked in Yemen, and state Sen. Greg Brower have also been mentioned as candidates.

Reid was an incumbent who was underwater in approval/disaproval ratings. Angle didn't get the job done against Reid, and not because of views, but because of the mouth.

The 2nd District in Nevada will be smaller after redistricting. Right now it's basically all except metro Vegas and is historically Republican. However, Angle may have lost this district when she ran against Reid. She lost overall by 41,000 votes and lost the largest county in the district, Washoe, which went for Bush twice. Why take that chance again? I hope a solid conservative wins who doesn't have foot-in-mouth disease.

MI-01 update - Gary McDowell is in

The neighborhood just got tougher in the 1st District. I knew there was going to be a yooper democrat running, and it's one I was hoping wasn't going to do it.  One of the best candidate the dems have just announced for Stupak's seat. From Petoskey News-Review:

A crowded 1st Congressional race is quickly becoming a stampede.Both state Rep. Gary McDowell, D-Rudyard, and state Sen. Jason Allen, R-Traverse City, are expected to make their formal announcements to run for the 1st Congressional district seat held by retiring U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Menominee.
On Tuesday, McDowell said he made the decision to run for congress after being encouraged about the decision by his family.
"I spoke to my family and many people in the district and I've come to the conclusion that I'd be the best candidate to run for the district and represent the state," McDowell said. 
McDowell, who is term-limited in the 107th House seat, previously planned to run for the 37th Senate seat held by Allen. However, with the surprise announcement that Stupak would end his 18-year tenure in the 1st District, many well-known state politicians have eyed the possibility of heading to Washington, D.C.

Gary McDowell isn't bulletproof as he voted for Granholm's tax policies, but he's still the one candidate so far that actually scares me from a geographic and ideology standpoint. He's a yooper which is a big advantage. He also showed he can win in the more Republican areas of the UP, Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. He even won Emmet County twice, normally a GOP stronghold.  He beat a state senator in Walt North (with major help from the NRA) to win this seat in 2004 after Scott Shackleton was termed out. He, like Sheltrown, can really cut into the 2nd Amendment vote in this district.

So far we have running:

GOP:
Jason Allen - Not formally announced, but an agent speaking for him said he was running last week. Represents part of the district as a state senator.
Dan Benishek - Surgeon who raised some online money after the health care bill. Yooper.
Don Hooper - Frequent candidate against  Stupak. Yooper
Linda Goldthorpe - Ran in 2008 primary, Yooper
Tom Stillings - Active in tea parties, from Torch Lake

DEM:
Gary McDowell
Connie Saltonstall - From Charlevoix, favorite of the "progressive" crowd
Joel Sheltrown - From West Branch. Chair of Natural Resources Committee as state rep. Strong in Northeastern Lower Penninsula.

Will there be a fourth Democrat, especially another yooper. Right now, I hope there is. Who else is running. I'll keep saying this regarding the chances of both parties in the 1st District. It is about matchups. Who matches up best against each other. Once the filings are in, I'll take a close look at them and the strengths and weakness of all of them. 

The fallout of Stupak's retirement begins - Joel Sheltrown announces

This didn't take long. Jim Barcia, who used to represent the 5th from Bay City, said he wasn't running. However, current state rep Joel Sheltrown, is running. Sheltrown was running for State Senate instead until Stupak made a decision.

From the Ogemaw County Hearld.

WEST BRANCH — Following the announcement last Friday that Rep. Bart Stupak would be retiring after 18 years in Congress, State Representative Joel Sheltrown (D-West Branch) announced Monday that he will be seeking election to the 1st Congressional District seat.
Sheltrown told the Herald Monday that when Stupak announced his retirement, he gave a couple of names of people who he felt would be qualified to run for the seat. Sheltrown’s name was on that list.
“Immediately after, I received a call asking me to run,” Sheltrown said.
Sheltrown, who was already involved in a state Senate campaign, said he had to talk to his wife and his strategists before he could make a decision.
“It’s an absolutely huge commitment,” Sheltrown said, adding that he understands that this is the largest district east of the Mississippi. “Once I put all the pieces together and it appeared that the door was open — if a door is open, I’ve never been one to walk up to it and close it.”

Interesting decision, since I think Sheltrown would have won the state senate district he's running for (36th). Of the democrats in Northern Lower Michigan running, he's by far the strongest, and it really isn't all that close. (Barcia would have been a carpetbagger). He's also one of the strongest democrats on 2nd Amendment issues, and is also pro-life.

Sheltrown has one major weakness. Geography. He's a troll, and 1/2 of the district population is the UP which tends to stick together. I think Sheltrown could be beaten by a strong yooper Republican, along with getting big margins from Emmet, Otsego, and Antrim Counties which are the Republican base in the district. In addition, Sheltrown doesn't have Roscommon County or Missaukee County in the district. Missaukee County is the second most republican county in the state, but they voted for Sheltrown. Roscommon County is a swing county, but supported Sheltrown along with his Iosco and Ogemaw base. Sheltrown has won republican votes in the past, much like Stupak has in Congress.

I'd still consider Sheltrown a top tier candidate, and one who the Republicans need to take as seriously as they would take someone like Mike Lahti or Gary McDowell. Sheltrown chairs Natural Resources in the house. Most of the gun bills go through him. Sheltrown is also pro-life. He's not going to get beat easily on the "cultural war" issues that work against national democrats in the 1st. (John Kerry). Sheltrown will get a lot of 2nd Amendment support and endorsements unless the Republicans run someone on his level on that issue, and I really don't know if that's possible, with Michelle McManus being in the 4th District (and running for Sec of State). Tom Casperson is the only other one I can think of that can possibly match Sheltrown there, and Sheltrown's work is more recent.

The question is who else runs? I've heard several names bantered about from the UP. Gary McDowell won the most Republican portion of the UP. Mike Lahti and Mike Prusi are also rumored to possibly run. I think Prusi would be the least hardest yooper to defeat because of abortion. McDowell and Lahti would be much more difficult.  If Prusi runs, does he take the abortion vote from Saltonstall, a favorite of out of state so called "progressives?" That would be bad news for republicans. Prusi I think could win this district, but he's not the same threat as Lahti or McDowell. The best possible Republican matchup is Saltonstall emerging in a split primary against any strong Republican - either a yooper, or Elsenheimer who already beat Saltonstall once already in a rout.

Interesting matchups.

Benishek v Sheltrown - The political newbie in the UP vs a state rep troll from the edge of the district. Benishek would have to take advantage of his geography, his outsider image, and make sure he protects his right cultural flank by losing as few 2nd amendment votes as possible that most republicans would get if it wasn't for Sheltrown. Benishek would have to go in and get big margins though in the troll base areas, along with running better than Bush in the UP, since he'll get dinged in a few swing counties like Ogemaw, Iosco, and probably Alcona and Alpena.

Elsenheimer (if he runs) v Sheltrown - This would be interesting. Elsenheimer's district is the major Republican base in the district (outside of McDowell's district where the NRA got revenge on one Republican who voted against them - long story). Elsenheimer is from Antrim County, which is a bit of a disadvantage for this district, but he doesn't have that Torch Lake address that would make it tougher. He also ran a geographic primary in 2004, where he took advantage of his location to win by "not" being the coastal or transplant candidate. He'll run very well in the base areas in Northern Michigan. Can he sell in the UP? That's the question there for both candidates.


The 1st district is currently rated as a tossup. I think that's accurate and will be until the primary results are in this August. Nothing comes easy Up North for either party, and that once again holds true here.

Michigan 9th District (MI-09) Updated

Edit 5-18-2010 - Listed Candidates
Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 9th District - Congress

Incumbent - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Hills)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 2
Cook District Numbers - D+2

GOP Candidates - Andrew Rocky Raczkowski
Dem Candidate - Gary Peters

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 56%
McCain - 43%

2004:
Bush - 51%
Kerry – 49%

2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 47%

I said a long time ago that the redistricters had their heads up their butts when they drew this district. This district made things difficult for Joe Knollenberg. Knollenberg had a history of running much further ahead of the top of the ticket. He had a difficult district in the 1990's that included Southfield, which has gone from voting for Dukakis by 5000 votes to voting for Obama by 33,000 votes. Southfield used to be largely Catholic and Jewish with some blacks in the 1980's. Now, it's mostly black. Southfield was rightly given to Sander Levin's district. Knollenberg had to take Pontiac. That along makes up a 15,000 deficit. What was very bleeping stupid is Levin giving of Royal Oak to Knollenberg. Why? Royal Oak was blue and getting bluer for years. Levin should have kept Royal Oak, and give the rest of Sterling Heights to Miller. Knollenberg could have taken some of those northern townships from Mike Rogers instead. If that was the case, he'd possibly still be in office protecting the auto industry.

The 9th District is all in Oakland County. It contains Auburn Hills, Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Farmington Hills, Farmington, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Oakland Twp, Orchard Lake, part of Orion Twp, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Royal Oak, Southfield Twp (Bingham Farms, Franklin), Sylvan Lake, Troy, part of Waterford Twp, and West Bloomfield.

Knollenberg's secret is running even in West Bloomfield, and winning Farmington Hills, while racking up big margins in the Bloomfields to overcome Pontiac (and Southfield in the old district). It worked for a long time.

Most of the 9th comes from the old 11th district which Knollenberg represented. It went for Clinton and Gore, so the old 11th was more democrat than the current 9th. The rest was from mostly republican areas in the old 9th and 12th districts, except Royal Oak and Pontiac are major exceptions. I think the republicans were more interesting in hurting David Bonior than they were helping Knollenberg. They wanted most of Bonior's old base in Levin's district. If they gave Royal Oak and Berkley to Levin, it would probably put Clinton Twp or the Southern part of Sterling Heights with Miller's district. I'd have taken that trade in a minute. Then again, it wasn't my call. There were a lot of internal redistricting battles that hurt a few reps who wanted to run.

Current 9th District:
Auburn Hills - Was in old 9th
Berkley - Was in old 12th
Birmingham - Was in old 11th
Bloomfield Hills - Was in old 11th
Bloomfield Twp - Was in old 11th
Clawson - Was in old 12th
Farmington Hills - Was in old 11th
Farmington - Was in old 11th
Keego Harbor - Was in old 11th
Lake Angeles - Was in old 9th
Oakland Twp - Was in old 9th
Orchard Lake - Was in old 11th
part of Orion Twp Was in old 9th
Pontiac - Was in old 9th
Rochester - Was in old 9th
Rochester Hills - Was in old 9th
Royal Oak - Was in old 12th
Southfield Twp (Bingham Farms, Franklin) - Was in old 11th
Sylvan Lake - Was in old 11th
Troy - Was in old 12th
part of Waterford Twp - Was in old 9th
West Bloomfield - Was in old 11th


Former 11th
Commerce Twp - Now in current 11th
Highland Twp - Now in current 11th
Lathrup Village- Now in current12th
Lyon Twp - Now in current 11th
Milford Twp - Now in current 11th
City of Northville (Oakland) - Now in current 11th
City of Novi - Now in current 11th
Novi Twp - Now in current 11th
South Lyon - Now in current 11th
City of Southfield (most) - Now in current 12th
Walled Lake - Now in current 11th
White Lake - Now in current 11th
Wixom - Now in current 11th
Livonia - Now in current 11th
Redford Twp - Now in current 11th

Most of that wasn't bad. What was bad was Royal Oak. It really would not have mattered in the end since the last race was a 33,000 vote spread Royal Oak was 6000 of that, Berkley 2800), and Independence Twp, Orion, and Oxford couldn't makeup the rest. What it might have done however is scare off Peters, and give Knollenberg a better cushion in 2006. Knollenberg would possibly survived Nancy Skinner again.

Knollenberg survived easily until 2006, consistently winning with about 58% of the vote. 2006 was a nailbiter, and that got Gary Peters, one of the strongest farm club members of the dems, to run. Obama cleaned up in this mostly wealthy (Pontiac the big exception) district, and Peters rode the wave.

The Republicans have a few candidates looking to take the seat back. Their best shot is Andrew Rocky Raczkowski. As a former state rep, Rocky won the tough Farmington Hills based state house district three times, even beating Aldo Vagnozzi, a local legend there who replaced him. Rocky works for us. He's recently back home after stints in Afghanastan and Somalia. Rocky can adapt to either the business crowd or the movement conservatives and I think is one of the few candidates who, if given some help, give Peters more than a run for his money.


Here's the 08 results. It wasn't close. Ticket splitting areas went straight donkey, solid GOP areas were competitive, and the lean democrat areas upped their margins to the stratosphere. There were a lot of 3rd party defectors in this race, and I think it was the bailout that put the nail in the coffin.

2008 Election	Knollenberg	Peters	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,310	5,535	611	9,456	-2225	35.00%	58.53%	-23.53%
City of Berkley	3,264	5,080	711	9,055	-1816	36.05%	56.10%	-20.06%
City of Birmingham	6,172	5,584	462	12,218	588	50.52%	45.70%	4.81%
Bloomfield Hills	1,613	967	88	2,668	646	60.46%	36.24%	24.21%
Bloomfield Twp	14,940	11,235	851	27,026	3705	55.28%	41.57%	13.71%
City of Clawson	2,718	3,529	523	6,770	-811	40.15%	52.13%	-11.98%
Farmington	2,343	2,929	282	5,554	-586	42.19%	52.74%	-10.55%
Farmington Hills	16,909	24,287	1984	43,180	-7378	39.16%	56.25%	-17.09%
Keego Harbor	489	676	126	1,291	-187	37.88%	52.36%	-14.48%
Lake Angeles	201	48	3	252	153	79.76%	19.05%	60.71%
Oakland Twp	5,692	3,344	453	9,489	2348	59.99%	35.24%	24.74%
Orchard Lake	821	562	63	1,446	259	56.78%	38.87%	17.91%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	424	424	110	958	0	44.26%	44.26%	0.00%
Orion 9	573	507	78	1,158	66	49.48%	43.78%	5.70%
Orion 11	347	352	69	768	-5	45.18%	45.83%	-0.65%
Orion 14	404	274	48	726	130	55.65%	37.74%	17.91%
Orion 916avcb	520	538	74	1,132	-18	45.94%	47.53%	-1.59%
Pontiac	2,585	18,908	1018	22,511	-16323	11.48%	83.99%	-72.51%
Rochester	3,272	3,031	372	6,675	241	49.02%	45.41%	3.61%
Rochester Hills	18,728	17,320	1979	38,027	1408	49.25%	45.55%	3.70%
City of Royal Oak	11,311	17,518	2359	31,188	-6207	36.27%	56.17%	-19.90%
Southfield Twp	4,743	4,313	321	9,377	430	50.58%	46.00%	4.59%
Sylvan Lake	510	504	70	1,084	6	47.05%	46.49%	0.55%
Troy	20,643	19,407	1961	42,011	1236	49.14%	46.20%	2.94%
Waterford Twp	13,279	16,277	2525	32,081	-2998	41.39%	50.74%	-9.35%
Waterford 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	14,224	20,362	1492	36,078	-6138	39.43%	56.44%	-17.01%
Total	150,035	183,511	18,633	352,179	-33476	42.60%	52.11%	-9.51%

2006 was a nailbiter and showed the danger signs that started in the 2004 presidential race. Knollenberg here still had the ticket splitters in democrat strongholds like West Bloomfield that saved him.

2006 Election	Knollenberg	Skinner	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	2,965	3,386	192	6,543	-421	45.32%	51.75%	-6.43%
City of Berkley	3,082	3,729	193	7,004	-647	44.00%	53.24%	-9.24%
City of Birmingham	5,565	4,186	184	9,935	1379	56.01%	42.13%	13.88%
Bloomfield Hills	1,503	654	29	2,186	849	68.76%	29.92%	38.84%
Bloomfield Twp	14,138	8,221	376	22,735	5917	62.19%	36.16%	26.03%
City of Clawson	2,636	2,600	176	5,412	36	48.71%	48.04%	0.67%
Farmington	2,520	1,948	102	4,570	572	55.14%	42.63%	12.52%
Farmington Hills	16,402	16,476	660	33,538	-74	48.91%	49.13%	-0.22%
Keego Harbor	440	452	41	933	-12	47.16%	48.45%	-1.29%
Lake Angeles	189	30	2	221	159	85.52%	13.57%	71.95%
Oakland Twp	5,145	2,256	158	7,559	2889	68.06%	29.85%	38.22%
Orchard Lake	755	403	20	1,178	352	64.09%	34.21%	29.88%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	446	318	30	794	128	56.17%	40.05%	16.12%
Orion 9	571	331	20	922	240	61.93%	35.90%	26.03%
Orion 11	359	255	27	641	104	56.01%	39.78%	16.22%
Orion 14	378	220	18	616	158	61.36%	35.71%	25.65%
Orion 916avcb	408	294	13	715	114	57.06%	41.12%	15.94%
Pontiac	2,760	12,640	316	15,716	-9880	17.56%	80.43%	-62.87%
Rochester	3,087	1,917	98	5,102	1170	60.51%	37.57%	22.93%
Rochester Hills	17,560	11,642	662	29,864	5918	58.80%	38.98%	19.82%
City of Royal Oak	10,903	12,807	729	24,439	-1904	44.61%	52.40%	-7.79%
Southfield Twp	4,606	3,338	125	8,069	1268	57.08%	41.37%	15.71%
Sylvan Lake	501	432	26	959	69	52.24%	45.05%	7.19%
Troy	19,017	13,323	705	33,045	5694	57.55%	40.32%	17.23%
Waterford Twp	13,128	11,116	733	24,977	2012	52.56%	44.50%	8.06%
Waterford 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	13,324	14,646	525	28,495	-1322	46.76%	51.40%	-4.64%
Total	142,388	127,620	6,160	276,168	14768	51.56%	46.21%	5.35%

2004 and 2002 were easy wins for Knollenberg. I'm not going to post them here because Peters is now the rep. Instead I'll post the 2002 results in the district between Mike Cox and Gary Peters. Cox won statewide by 5500 votes. Cox won Oakland County overall, but it was close and due more to South Lyon and that area than the district. Shockingly to me, Cox won Farmington Hills and almost stole Royal Oak. Cox actually did better than these numbers, because I'm not sure which Waterford Absentees were from the 9th. The absentee voters went for Peters, and all of them were included here.

2002 Election	Cox	Peters	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	2,488	2,699	165	5,352	-211	46.49%	50.43%	-3.94%
City of Berkley	3,007	3,334	193	6,534	-327	46.02%	51.03%	-5.00%
City of Birmingham	5,059	3,595	188	8,842	1464	57.22%	40.66%	16.56%
Bloomfield Hills	1,324	629	30	1,983	695	66.77%	31.72%	35.05%
Bloomfield Twp	12,716	8,039	356	21,111	4677	60.23%	38.08%	22.15%
City of Clawson	2,498	2,205	177	4,880	293	51.19%	45.18%	6.00%
Farmington	2,265	1,781	97	4,143	484	54.67%	42.99%	11.68%
Farmington Hills	14,811	14,447	697	29,955	364	49.44%	48.23%	1.22%
Keego Harbor	321	350	37	708	-29	45.34%	49.44%	-4.10%
Lake Angeles	155	29	4	188	126	82.45%	15.43%	67.02%
Oakland Twp	3,885	1,677	125	5,687	2208	68.31%	29.49%	38.83%
Orchard Lake	688	352	20	1,060	336	64.91%	33.21%	31.70%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	336	223	16	575	113	58.43%	38.78%	19.65%
Orion 9	540	240	17	797	300	67.75%	30.11%	37.64%
Orion 11	286	203	27	516	83	55.43%	39.34%	16.09%
Orion 14	334	175	12	521	159	64.11%	33.59%	30.52%
Orion 916avcb	264	217	13	494	47	53.44%	43.93%	9.51%
Pontiac	2,323	10,604	295	13,222	-8281	17.57%	80.20%	-62.63%
Rochester	2,451	1,640	87	4,178	811	58.66%	39.25%	19.41%
Rochester Hills	15,688	9,998	521	26,207	5690	59.86%	38.15%	21.71%
City of Royal Oak	11,261	11,532	767	23,560	-271	47.80%	48.95%	-1.15%
Southfield Twp	4,233	3,111	116	7,460	1122	56.74%	41.70%	15.04%
Sylvan Lake	458	372	21	851	86	53.82%	43.71%	10.11%
Troy	17,044	10,848	541	28,433	6196	59.94%	38.15%	21.79%
Waterford Twp	12,367	10,108	610	23,085	2259	53.57%	43.79%	9.79%
Waterford 1	-469	-277	-28	(774)	-192	60.59%	35.79%	24.81%
Waterford 3	-302	-214	-17	(533)	-88	56.66%	40.15%	16.51%
Waterford 5	-402	-289	-21	(712)	-113	56.46%	40.59%	15.87%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	11,106	13,504	775	25,385	-2398	43.75%	53.20%	-9.45%
Total	126,735	111,132	5,841	243,708	15603	52.00%	45.60%	6.40%

In the presidential race, this district has gotten more and more blue. It's a combination of smaller margins in formerly republican strongholds, more votes in Pontiac, and emerging areas that were competitive, no longer competitive at all. Kerry actually did much better than Gore in this district. The other reason is that even though Bush did better in Oakland County in 2004 overall than 2000 (which most don't know), it wasn't in this district (Rogers and McCotter's district had the improvements) which is what most people think of with Oakland County.The numbers are slightly off due to absentees.

2000 Election	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,408	3,913	227	7,548	-505	45.15%	51.84%	-6.69%
City of Berkley	3,860	4,400	312	8,572	-540	45.03%	51.33%	-6.30%
City of Birmingham	6,729	4,925	307	11,961	1804	56.26%	41.18%	15.08%
Bloomfield Hills	1,804	777	44	2,625	1027	68.72%	29.60%	39.12%
Bloomfield Twp	16,304	9,530	518	26,352	6774	61.87%	36.16%	25.71%
City of Clawson	3,116	3,332	249	6,697	-216	46.53%	49.75%	-3.23%
Farmington	2,796	2,442	179	5,417	354	51.62%	45.08%	6.53%
Farmington Hills	19,164	20,337	910	40,411	-1173	47.42%	50.33%	-2.90%
Keego Harbor	522	588	36	1,146	-66	45.55%	51.31%	-5.76%
Lake Angeles	203	23	2	228	180	89.04%	10.09%	78.95%
Oakland Twp	4,823	2,219	181	7,223	2604	66.77%	30.72%	36.05%
Orchard Lake	870	471	38	1,379	399	63.09%	34.16%	28.93%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	363	363	26	752	0	48.27%	48.27%	0.00%
Orion 9	708	368	23	1,099	340	64.42%	33.48%	30.94%
Orion 11	437	402	23	862	35	50.70%	46.64%	4.06%
Orion 14	373	230	9	612	143	60.95%	37.58%	23.37%
Orion 916avcb				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Pontiac	3,360	15,182	338	18,880	-11822	17.80%	80.41%	-62.62%
Rochester	3,270	2,153	179	5,602	1117	58.37%	38.43%	19.94%
Rochester Hills	21,011	13,474	789	35,274	7537	59.57%	38.20%	21.37%
City of Royal Oak	14,689	16,435	1185	32,309	-1746	45.46%	50.87%	-5.40%
Southfield Twp	5,133	3,721	268	9,122	1412	56.27%	40.79%	15.48%
Sylvan Lake	583	485	37	1,105	98	52.76%	43.89%	8.87%
Troy	22,775	15,463	886	39,124	7312	58.21%	39.52%	18.69%
Waterford Twp	16,629	15,280	845	32,754	1349	50.77%	46.65%	4.12%
Waterford 1	-548	-500	-34	(1,082)	-48	50.65%	46.21%	4.44%
Waterford 3	-344	-382	-20	(746)	38	46.11%	51.21%	-5.09%
Waterford 5	-491	-414	-24	(929)	-77	52.85%	44.56%	8.29%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	14,222	19,016	627	33,865	-4794	42.00%	56.15%	-14.16%
Total	165,769	154,233	8,160	328,162	11536	50.51%	47.00%	3.52%

2004 showed a dem uptick.

2004 Election	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	4,089	4,724	97	8,910	-635	45.89%	53.02%	-7.13%
City of Berkley	4,315	5,027	108	9,450	-712	45.66%	53.20%	-7.53%
City of Birmingham	6,772	5,508	101	12,381	1264	54.70%	44.49%	10.21%
Bloomfield Hills	1,802	951	24	2,777	851	64.89%	34.25%	30.64%
Bloomfield Twp	16,314	11,197	208	27,719	5117	58.85%	40.39%	18.46%
City of Clawson	3,584	3,471	66	7,121	113	50.33%	48.74%	1.59%
Farmington	2,873	2,680	74	5,627	193	51.06%	47.63%	3.43%
Farmington Hills	20,019	22,931	381	43,331	-2912	46.20%	52.92%	-6.72%
Keego Harbor	554	590	13	1,157	-36	47.88%	50.99%	-3.11%
Lake Angeles	217	43	3	263	174	82.51%	16.35%	66.16%
Oakland Twp	6,212	2,898	91	9,201	3314	67.51%	31.50%	36.02%
Orchard Lake	938	580	7	1,525	358	61.51%	38.03%	23.48%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	584	420	7	1,011	164	57.76%	41.54%	16.22%
Orion 9	785	438	13	1,236	347	63.51%	35.44%	28.07%
Orion 11	456	348	13	817	108	55.81%	42.59%	13.22%
Orion 14	479	252	6	737	227	64.99%	34.19%	30.80%
Orion 916avcb	553	384	16	953	169	58.03%	40.29%	17.73%
Pontiac	4,499	17,759	163	22,421	-13260	20.07%	79.21%	-59.14%
Rochester	3,979	2,647	60	6,686	1332	59.51%	39.59%	19.92%
Rochester Hills	22,733	15,571	354	38,658	7162	58.81%	40.28%	18.53%
City of Royal Oak	15,529	19,143	410	35,082	-3614	44.26%	54.57%	-10.30%
Southfield Twp	5,245	4,346	81	9,672	899	54.23%	44.93%	9.29%
Sylvan Lake	647	529	16	1,192	118	54.28%	44.38%	9.90%
Troy	24,171	18,175	418	42,764	5996	56.52%	42.50%	14.02%
Waterford Twp	19,965	16,507	345	36,817	3458	54.23%	44.84%	9.39%
Waterford 1	-719	-423	-13	(1,155)	-296	62.25%	36.62%	25.63%
Waterford 3	-401	-349	-8	(758)	-52	52.90%	46.04%	6.86%
Waterford 5	-639	-484	-10	(1,133)	-155	56.40%	42.72%	13.68%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	16,150	20,317	247	36,714	-4167	43.99%	55.34%	-11.35%
Total	181,705	176,180	3,291	361,176	5525	50.31%	48.78%	1.53%

2008 showed a blowout. When you quit the state, and tell us that the auto industry isn't coming back, along with Bush not being all that great of friend to the auto industry, and people having a throw the bums out mentality in 06 (The Republican Congress should have listened to Pence in 06. I told you so.) and 08, it doesn't look good. Here's why Knollenberg had no chance in 08.

2008 Election	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,577	5,823	152	9,552	-2246	37.45%	60.96%	-23.51%
City of Berkley	3,560	5,715	143	9,418	-2155	37.80%	60.68%	-22.88%
City of Birmingham	5,900	6,492	154	12,546	-592	47.03%	51.75%	-4.72%
Bloomfield Hills	1,580	1,112	19	2,711	468	58.28%	41.02%	17.26%
Bloomfield Twp	14,368	12,886	257	27,511	1482	52.23%	46.84%	5.39%
City of Clawson	2,998	3,912	142	7,052	-914	42.51%	55.47%	-12.96%
Farmington	2,416	3,183	102	5,701	-767	42.38%	55.83%	-13.45%
Farmington Hills	17,028	26,862	541	44,431	-9834	38.32%	60.46%	-22.13%
Keego Harbor	525	804	20	1,349	-279	38.92%	59.60%	-20.68%
Lake Angeles	201	59	1	261	142	77.01%	22.61%	54.41%
Oakland Twp	5,965	3,679	139	9,783	2286	60.97%	37.61%	23.37%
Orchard Lake	821	648	11	1,480	173	55.47%	43.78%	11.69%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	494	477	22	993	17	49.75%	48.04%	1.71%
Orion 9	608	581	20	1,209	27	50.29%	48.06%	2.23%
Orion 11	400	399	14	813	1	49.20%	49.08%	0.12%
Orion 14	423	319	13	755	104	56.03%	42.25%	13.77%
Orion 916avcb	598	538	18	1,154	60	51.82%	46.62%	5.20%
Pontiac	2,799	19,980	205	22,984	-17181	12.18%	86.93%	-74.75%
Rochester	3,515	3,319	88	6,922	196	50.78%	47.95%	2.83%
Rochester Hills	19,919	18,834	570	39,323	1085	50.65%	47.90%	2.76%
City of Royal Oak	13,094	21,650	684	35,428	-8556	36.96%	61.11%	-24.15%
Southfield Twp	4,570	4,925	93	9,588	-355	47.66%	51.37%	-3.70%
Sylvan Lake	551	558	17	1,126	-7	48.93%	49.56%	-0.62%
Troy	21,230	21,517	629	43,376	-287	48.94%	49.61%	-0.66%
Waterford Twp	16,968	19,134	720	36,822	-2166	46.08%	51.96%	-5.88%
Waterford 1	-537	-475	-14	(1,026)	-62	52.34%	46.30%	6.04%
Waterford 3	-339	-380	-23	(742)	41	45.69%	51.21%	-5.53%
Waterford 5	-429	-527	-24	(980)	98	43.78%	53.78%	-10.00%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	13,967	22,730	344	37,041	-8763	37.71%	61.36%	-23.66%
Total	156,770	204,754	5,057	366,581	-47984	42.77%	55.86%	-13.09%

The farm club has some tough seats.

St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated  as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.

St Senate 26th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Seiferlein/Cherry	41445	65771		107,216	-24326	38.66%	61.34%	-22.69%
02 - Muller/Cherry	37852	47848		85,700	-9996	44.17%	55.83%	-11.66%

St Senate 15 - Covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Holly Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, Orchard Lake Village, Rose Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Twp, White Lake Twp, and City of Wixom. This is an open seat with Nancy Cassis termed out. She defeat Ray Raczkowski (not to be confused with Rocky) in 2006. I don't know if they are related or not. I didn't ask Rocky.Most of this district is in the 11th or 9th district. It's Republican Leaning, although less so than it once was. I can see headaches if the dems are able to win by a decent number in Commerce Twp, Novi, and Walled Lake and increase their West Bloomfield Stronghold. I don't expect that in 2010 outside of West Bloomfield, but WB is now about 60% democrat. I hope they love their taxes there.....

St. Senate 15th	GOP	Dem
06 - Cassis/R.Razckowski	66,524	45,782	3101	115,407	20742	57.64%	39.67%	17.97%
02 - Cassis/Carlson	57,583	35,305	2340	95,228	22278	60.47%	37.07%	23.39%

St Senate 14 - Covers Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak Twp, Southfield, and Southfield Twp. This is probably the most democrat state senate district outside of the City of Detroit, give or take Ann Arbor and Flint. Most of this district is in the 12th District, but the Farmingtons and Southfield Twp are in the 9th. Gilda Jacobs is termed out in 2010, but the only chance the GOP has here is if it's a 1994 like year, and even still, there's still Southfield, Lathrup, Ferndale, Oak Park, and Huntington Woods.

St Senate 14th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Bellinger/Jacobs	26571	78346	3114	108,031	-51775	24.60%	72.52%	-47.93%
02 - Wilkins/Jacobs	28249	65538	2030	95,817	-37289	29.48%	68.40%	-38.92%

St Senate 13 -  Covers Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy. This is a swing district that was a barnburner in 2006. Liberal Republican Shirley Johnson was termed out and there was a tough primary and general election. John Pappageorge, a former state rep ran and won a very close race with Andy Levin - Sander Levin's son. Pappageorge's win helped save the senate.

St Senate 13th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Pappageorge/A.Levin	57,204	56,484	3129	116,817	720	48.97%	48.35%	0.62%
02 - Johnson/Levitt	63,793	37,222		101,015	26571	63.15%	36.85%	26.30%

St Senate 12 - Covers Addison Twp, City of Auburn Hills, City of Clarkston, Independence Twp, City of Keego Harbor, City of Lake Angelus, Oakland Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, City of Pontiac, City of Rochester, City of Rochester Hills, City of Sylvan Lake, and less than a precinct of West Bloomfield. This district is split between the 8th and 9th. Mike Bishop is termed out and running for Attorney General. Slightly Republican leaning, but anything with Pontiac and Auburn Hills is dangerous, because a turnout war can do what Obama did in the 8th Congressional. Luckily Rochester Hills doesn't go for Pontiac types of democrats (union/populist). It's an open seat in 2010. 

St Senate 12th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Bishop/Barrera	59,498	43,069	3048	105,615	16429	56.33%	40.78%	15.56%
02 - Bishop/Werth	54,569	32,412		86,981	22157	62.74%	37.26%	25.47%

St Rep 46 - Covers Addison Twp, Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Holly Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, and Rose Twp in Oakland County. This is one of the most Republican seats in Oakland County.

St Rep 46th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Marleau/Houston	29,257	19,042		48,299	10215	60.57%	39.43%	21.15%
06 - Marleau/Pearson	23,744	15,197		38,941	8547	60.97%	39.03%	21.95%
04 - Marleau/Myslakowski	30,064	17,593		47,657	12471	63.08%	36.92%	26.17%
02 - Johnson/Reading	21,582	8,866		30,448	12716	70.88%	29.12%	41.76%

St Rep 45th - Covers Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Oakland Twp. Solidly Republican, although less so in recent years. All of this district is in the 9th.

St Rep 45th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - McMillin/Young	29,450	21,785		51,235	7665	57.48%	42.52%	14.96%
06 - Garfield/Werth	24,211	16,385		40,596	7826	59.64%	40.36%	19.28%
04 - Garfield/Werth	31,993	17,363	1326	50,682	14630	63.12%	34.26%	28.87%
02 - Garfield/Kanaras	23,518	10,699		34,217	12819	68.73%	31.27%	37.46%

St Rep 44 - City of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County. This is probably the most republican seat in Oakland County.

St Rep 44th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - E.Kowall/Venie	33,266	16,683		49,949	16583	66.60%	33.40%	33.20%
06 - Stakoe/Venie	27,124	13,264		40,388	13860	67.16%	32.84%	34.32%
04 - Stakoe/Scrase	33,596	14,498	1400	49,494	19098	67.88%	29.29%	38.59%
02 - Stakoe/Bryan	22,788	9,748		32,536	13040	70.04%	29.96%	40.08%

St Rep 43rd - Covers Waterford Twp and Northernmost West Bloomfield - This is a competitive seat which was a big battle in 2002. Gail Haines took the open seat in 2008 keeping it GOP in another extremely close race. This could be another battle in 2010.

St Rep 43rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Haines/Hudson	20,219	19,373	1460	41,052	846	49.25%	47.19%	2.06%
06 - Amos/Riddell	19,292	13,406		32,698	5886	59.00%	41.00%	18.00%
04 - Amos/Hudson	23,665	18,193		41,858	5472	56.54%	43.46%	13.07%
02 - Amos/Fortino	14,788	13,157		27,945	1631	52.92%	47.08%	5.84%

St Rep 41st - Covers Clawson and Troy - Leans Republican, but like the Rochester seat, not as much as it was. In fact, Peters split this district nearly 50/50. Marty Knollenberg, Joe's son, is the current state rep here. He's won two terms and has a 3rd in 2010. This could possibly be competitive in 2012 depending on what happens with redistricting.

St Rep 41st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - M.Knollenberg/Treharne	27,211	19,649		46,860	7562	58.07%	41.93%	16.14%
06 - M.Knollenberg/Gregory	21,673	15,479		37,152	6194	58.34%	41.66%	16.67%
04 - Gosselin/Blundo	26,767	19,674		46,441	7093	57.64%	42.36%	15.27%
02 - Pappageorge/Fischer	22,631	9,514	667	32,812	13117	68.97%	29.00%	39.98%

St Rep 40th - Covers Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, Southfield Twp, and Sylvan Lake. This district leans GOP, but not overwhelmingly so. Chuck Moss is a two term incumbent with one term left. This could have an outside chance of being competitive in 2012 depending on redistricting.

St Rep 40th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Moss/Candler	31,312	19,751	1278	52,341	11561	59.82%	37.74%	22.09%
06 - Moss/Jafly	28,095	14,883		42,978	13212	65.37%	34.63%	30.74%
04 - Taub	39,231			39,231	39231	100.00%	0.00%	100.00%
02 - Taub/Weisberg	25,625	15,435		41,060	10190	62.41%	37.59%	24.82%

St Rep 39th - Covers Commerce Twp and part of West Bloomfield. This seat leaned democrat at the top of the ticket for a long time, but went GOP several times down ticket. Commerce Twp saved us in 2004 and 2006, but it caught up with us in 2008. Lisa Brown, who almost won in 2006, won the open seat in 2008. Hopefully, the democrat 2010 backlash strikes here. We'll see.

St Rep 39th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Peterman/Brown	22,725	25,437	1133	49,295	-2712	46.10%	51.60%	-5.50%
06 - Law/Brown	19,563	19,387		38,950	176	50.23%	49.77%	0.45%
04 - Law/Schwartz	24,998	21,618	1092	47,708	3380	52.40%	45.31%	7.08%
02 - Shulman/Brickman	19,691	12,722		32,413	6969	60.75%	39.25%	21.50%

St Rep 37th - Covers Farmington and Farmington Hills - This district leans democrat, but was won by Rocky Raczkowski three times in 96, 98, and 2000. Vicki Barnett won the open seat for the democrats in 2008 in an easier than supposed to have been race. Paul Welday didn't get the help that he needed and was largely left on his own. 

St Rep 37th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Welday/Barnett	18,954	28,575		47,529	-9621	39.88%	60.12%	-20.24%
06 - Malaney/Vagnozzi	14,375	23,177		37,552	-8802	38.28%	61.72%	-23.44%
04 - Largent/Vagnozzi	20,468	26,730		47,198	-6262	43.37%	56.63%	-13.27%
02 - Knol/Vagnozzi	16,290	17,976		34,266	-1686	47.54%	52.46%	-4.92%

St Rep 29th - Covers Pontiac and Auburn Hills - Solidly Democrat seat.  Tim Melton is the two term incumbent.

St Rep 29th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Sampeer/Melton	5,074	25,700		30,774	-20626	16.49%	83.51%	-67.02%
06 - March/Melton	4,131	16,591	1110	21,832	-12460	18.92%	75.99%	-57.07%
04 - Moffett/Phillips	7,607	22,272	1400	31,279	-14665	24.32%	71.20%	-46.88%
02 - March/Phillips	4,292	13,675		17,967	-9383	23.89%	76.11%	-52.22%

St Rep 27th - Covers Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, and Pleasant Ridge. Probably the most liberal district in the state outside of Ann Arbor. Only the major minority areas are more democrat.

St Rep 27th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Micola/Lipton	10,099	31,758	2616	44,473	-21659	22.71%	71.41%	-48.70%
06 - Sears/Meisner	7,303	27,285		34,588	-19982	21.11%	78.89%	-57.77%
04 - Axtell/Meisner	10,755	32,447	1188	44,390	-21692	24.23%	73.10%	-48.87%
02 - Sanford/Meisner	7,927	21,037	875	29,839	-13110	26.57%	70.50%	-43.94%

St Rep 26th - Madison Heights and Royal Oak - Strong Democrat leanings, but has been competitive in the past. I think the dems have held this seat since at least 98, if not earlier. It will be opened up in 2010. I think there's an outside shot if it is another 1994 type of year, but this seat is for the dems to lose.

St Rep 26th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Goodman/Donigan	15,471	28,003	1885	45,359	-12532	34.11%	61.74%	-27.63%
06 - Konczal/Donigan	12,357	22,079	1057	35,493	-9722	34.82%	62.21%	-27.39%
04 - Ginotti/Donigan	20,954	22,780	2682	46,416	-1826	45.14%	49.08%	-3.93%
02 - West/Woodward	11,697	19,058	722	31,477	-7361	37.16%	60.55%	-23.39%

Now the 9th district is unpredictable for 2010. One issue trumps all. The economy. The auto industry took an ass kicking in 2008, and 2009. The Bloomfields are known for auto executives. Auburn Hills was Chrysler's HQ, not just the home of the Pistons. Pontiac is a former GM town. Lake Orion (largely 8th district) has a GM plant, for now. With the 250,000 jobs estimated that are eliminated from GM due to decisions made by Obama's appointees, how will that impact this district? Cap and trade is not popular here, even though the environment is big issue in these parts. The social issues are downplayed right now, and that favors republicans in this district. This is Romney's old home. This is his territory. This is the closest district to the pundits stereotype of Oakland County (which I used to buy into until I took a closer look at the numbers). It takes a balancing act to win here between business, the social liberal independents, and the populists which while aren't as numerous here as neighboring Macomb County, still are a factor in very important Waterford. The base is still quite important as well. The populism in this district has certainly increased since the bank bailouts and auto industry crisis. How will Peters and Rocky handle that? That's the question, and probably what will determine what happens in 2010. Rocky's a fighter, like another more famous Rocky. That's one of the big reasons why I like his odds in 2010. He's won tough districts in the past, and the 9th overall is easier than his old 37th district.