Update 5-18-2010 - Listed candidates.
Michigan's 3rd District - Congress
Incumbent - Dave Camp (R-Midland)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 20.
Cook District Numbers - R+6
GOP Candidate - Dave Camp
Dem Candidate - Jerry Campbell of St Helen (Roscommon County)
Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 50%
McCain - 48%
2004:
Bush – 55%
Kerry – 44%
2000:
Bush 54%
Gore 44%
This is a geography based district that is safe for Camp, but should be a barnburner if it ever opens up. It's a district with several red zones and several blue zones. Dave Camp won in 1990 replacing Bill Schuette who ran for Senate. Schuette beat a democrat in 1984 in an old district. Redistricting changed this district slightly, but it's main points are the same.
Obama did well in most of the counties, but Camp also won easily. Bush won most of the areas easily in 2004 and 2000. Keep in mind that the portion of Saginaw County in this district does not cover the highly democrat City of Saginaw. Saginaw County as a whole usually votes similar to neighboring Bay County, although Saginaw County's portion usually is independent with slight Republican leanings (less so in 2008, and was historically democrat until the mid-late 90's - Lew Dodak represented that area) outside of the inner ring (Bridgeport and Carrollton), while Bay County's non city portion is strongly democrat, although not that liberal. In a very simplistic sense, Saginaw County is a regional county. The city is very democrat. The Eastern suburbs are very democrat. The rural southern area leans democrat. The eastern edge (Frankenmuth) is Republican. The rural western and western surbubs lean republican. That's not always the case, but is a general rule to follow.
The GOP took a hit statewide, but not quite the same hit here as was taken in West Michigan, College towns, and Oakland County. The big hit here is Isabella County, home of Central Michigan University. Isabella County has gone rapidly blue since 2000 (although it was last won by the GOP for President in 1988) as John Engler's influence has lessened. Leelanau and Grand Traverse County have major bleeding as well that needs to be stopped. There's bleeding elsewhere here too, but Clinton cleaned up this district in 96. Obama didn't match that, although he did well. Camp survived all of that with little trouble. His weakest election was 2008 with almost 62% of the vote and never had less than 60%. The irony is that he was stronger in 2000 than 2004, despite Bush doing better in 04. That was due to now state rep Mike Huckleberry almost winning his home county in 04 and 06. Huckleberry ran twice for the seat getting less than 40% each time. Camp still won Huckleberry's county twice.
Here's the 2008 numbers.
2008 Election
| Camp
| Cocannon
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
Clare
| 9,275
| 4,555
| 328
| 14,158
| 4720
| 65.51%
| 32.17%
| 33.34%
|
Grand Traverse
| 29,285
| 16,241
| 1294
| 46,820
| 13044
| 62.55%
| 34.69%
| 27.86%
|
Gratiot
| 11,132
| 5,789
| 393
| 17,314
| 5343
| 64.29%
| 33.44%
| 30.86%
|
Isabella
| 15,379
| 10,810
| 741
| 26,930
| 4569
| 57.11%
| 40.14%
| 16.97%
|
Kalkaska
| 5,375
| 2,549
| 277
| 8,201
| 2826
| 65.54%
| 31.08%
| 34.46%
|
Leelanau
| 8,448
| 5,311
| 275
| 14,034
| 3137
| 60.20%
| 37.84%
| 22.35%
|
Mecosta
| 11,461
| 6,137
| 484
| 18,082
| 5324
| 63.38%
| 33.94%
| 29.44%
|
Midland
| 27,910
| 14,364
| 834
| 43,108
| 13546
| 64.74%
| 33.32%
| 31.42%
|
Missaukee
| 5,457
| 1,760
| 137
| 7,354
| 3697
| 74.20%
| 23.93%
| 50.27%
|
Montcalm
| 16,005
| 9,161
| 899
| 26,065
| 6844
| 61.40%
| 35.15%
| 26.26%
|
Osceola
| 7,536
| 3,001
| 278
| 10,815
| 4535
| 69.68%
| 27.75%
| 41.93%
|
Roscommon
| 9,230
| 4,204
| 313
| 13,747
| 5026
| 67.14%
| 30.58%
| 36.56%
|
Saginaw County:
|
|
|
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
Albee Twp
| 546
| 492
| 28
| 1,066
| 54
| 51.22%
| 46.15%
| 5.07%
|
Brady Twp
| 682
| 393
| 29
| 1,104
| 289
| 61.78%
| 35.60%
| 26.18%
|
Brant Twp
| 661
| 350
| 24
| 1,035
| 311
| 63.86%
| 33.82%
| 30.05%
|
Bridgeport Twp
| 2,399
| 2,967
| 90
| 5,456
| -568
| 43.97%
| 54.38%
| -10.41%
|
Carrollton Twp
| 1,306
| 1,533
| 80
| 2,919
| -227
| 44.74%
| 52.52%
| -7.78%
|
Chapin Twp
| 286
| 125
| 11
| 422
| 161
| 67.77%
| 29.62%
| 38.15%
|
Chesaning Twp
| 1450
| 952
| 44
| 2,446
| 498
| 59.28%
| 38.92%
| 20.36%
|
Fremont Twp
| 707
| 375
| 28
| 1,110
| 332
| 63.69%
| 33.78%
| 29.91%
|
James Twp
| 704
| 437
| 15
| 1,156
| 267
| 60.90%
| 37.80%
| 23.10%
|
Jonesfield Twp
| 506
| 327
| 20
| 853
| 179
| 59.32%
| 38.34%
| 20.98%
|
Kochville Twp
| 780
| 596
| 27
| 1,403
| 184
| 55.60%
| 42.48%
| 13.11%
|
Lakefield Twp
| 353
| 201
| 19
| 573
| 152
| 61.61%
| 35.08%
| 26.53%
|
Maple Grove Twp
| 859
| 576
| 27
| 1,462
| 283
| 58.76%
| 39.40%
| 19.36%
|
Marion Twp
| 260
| 129
| 15
| 404
| 131
| 64.36%
| 31.93%
| 32.43%
|
Richland Twp
| 1,532
| 740
| 49
| 2,321
| 792
| 66.01%
| 31.88%
| 34.12%
|
Saginaw Twp
| 12,781
| 9,889
| 325
| 22,995
| 2892
| 55.58%
| 43.01%
| 12.58%
|
Spaulding Twp
| 505
| 577
| 18
| 1,100
| -72
| 45.91%
| 52.45%
| -6.55%
|
St Charles Twp
| 864
| 639
| 39
| 1,542
| 225
| 56.03%
| 41.44%
| 14.59%
|
Swan Creek Twp
| 879
| 493
| 28
| 1,400
| 386
| 62.79%
| 35.21%
| 27.57%
|
Taymouth Twp
| 1,177
| 988
| 41
| 2,206
| 189
| 53.35%
| 44.79%
| 8.57%
|
Thomas Twp
| 4,554
| 2,490
| 106
| 7,150
| 2064
| 63.69%
| 34.83%
| 28.87%
|
Tittabawassee Twp
| 796
| 744
| 26
| 1,566
| 52
| 50.83%
| 47.51%
| 3.32%
|
City of Zilwaukee(part)
| 70
| 49
| 0
| 119
| 21
| 58.82%
| 41.18%
| 17.65%
|
Shiawassee County:
|
|
|
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
Caledonia Twp
| 1,495
| 805
| 42
| 2,342
| 690
| 63.83%
| 34.37%
| 29.46%
|
City of Corunna
| 784
| 555
| 36
| 1,375
| 229
| 57.02%
| 40.36%
| 16.65%
|
Fairfield Twp
| 244
| 138
| 20
| 402
| 106
| 60.70%
| 34.33%
| 26.37%
|
Hazelton Twp
| 676
| 492
| 20
| 1,188
| 184
| 56.90%
| 41.41%
| 15.49%
|
Middlebury Twp
| 502
| 262
| 26
| 790
| 240
| 63.54%
| 33.16%
| 30.38%
|
New Haven Twp
| 536
| 210
| 15
| 761
| 326
| 70.43%
| 27.60%
| 42.84%
|
City of Owosso
| 3,718
| 2,664
| 187
| 6,569
| 1054
| 56.60%
| 40.55%
| 16.05%
|
Owosso Twp
| 1,698
| 918
| 50
| 2,666
| 780
| 63.69%
| 34.43%
| 29.26%
|
Rush Twp
| 476
| 244
| 14
| 734
| 232
| 64.85%
| 33.24%
| 31.61%
|
Venice Twp
| 750
| 516
| 38
| 1,304
| 234
| 57.52%
| 39.57%
| 17.94%
|
Vernon Twp (part)
| 213
| 146
| 12
| 371
| 67
| 57.41%
| 39.35%
| 18.06%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
| 202,242
| 116,894
| 7,802
| 326,938
| 85348
| 61.86%
| 35.75%
| 26.11%
|
Camp usually sweeps the district and did so again. All of his wins are relatively consistent so I'll only post 2008. I don't see a big threat to Camp for awhile. Geography is his best friend. Dan Scripps has a geography disadvantage. Mike Huckleberry lost twice, although he's stronger now than he was before. Isabella County actually still has a GOP State rep (termed out) and State Senator. Shiawassee County has a GOP rep (termed out) and is in Livingston County's state senate district. So does Clare. The Sheltrowns representing Roscommon are the best shot to win by views, but they are in the 1st district. Saginaw County's top democrats are in the 5th. I can see Isabella County's state rep seat flipping, and the usual dogfight down in Shiawassee County, but that's about it. If the dems can't even get Isabella County away from Camp, there's not even a contest. Spaulding, Bridgeport, and Carrollton are base townships for democrats so that's no cause for alarm with the GOP. Bush never even broke 43% there. Camp even won the cities of Mt Pleasant and Traverse City themselves. The only areas Camp lost were those three, arguably the hardest for a GOP candidate to in the district (Although I'd put Mt. Pleasant in the Bridgeport category of difficulty.)
The presidential numbers are an approximation. The City of Zilwaukee is a split precinct, so my numbers are probably more democrat than the actual total. About 1/6 of the city is in Camp's District with 5/6 in Kildee's. I'm not good enough to split precincts, so that will have to do. The same problem comes up with Vernon Twp in Shiawassee County. Precinct 1 is in both Camp's district and Rogers district. I'll divide the numbers there by 1/3, since about 2/3 is in the Rogers district.
Here are the Bush Numbers from 2000
2000 Election
| Bush
| Gore
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
Clare
| 5,937
| 6,327
| 383
| 12,647
| -390
| 46.94%
| 50.03%
| -3.08%
|
Grand Traverse
| 22,358
| 14,371
| 1500
| 38,229
| 7987
| 58.48%
| 37.59%
| 20.89%
|
Gratiot
| 8,312
| 6,358
| 329
| 14,999
| 1954
| 55.42%
| 42.39%
| 13.03%
|
Isabella
| 10,053
| 10,228
| 788
| 21,069
| -175
| 47.71%
| 48.55%
| -0.83%
|
Kalkaska
| 3,842
| 2,774
| 233
| 6,849
| 1068
| 56.10%
| 40.50%
| 15.59%
|
Leelanau
| 6,840
| 4,635
| 534
| 12,009
| 2205
| 56.96%
| 38.60%
| 18.36%
|
Mecosta
| 8,072
| 6,300
| 379
| 14,751
| 1772
| 54.72%
| 42.71%
| 12.01%
|
Midland
| 21,887
| 15,959
| 1042
| 38,888
| 5928
| 56.28%
| 41.04%
| 15.24%
|
Missaukee
| 4,274
| 2,062
| 161
| 6,497
| 2212
| 65.78%
| 31.74%
| 34.05%
|
Montcalm
| 12,696
| 9,627
| 582
| 22,905
| 3069
| 55.43%
| 42.03%
| 13.40%
|
Osceola
| 5,680
| 4,006
| 251
| 9,937
| 1674
| 57.16%
| 40.31%
| 16.85%
|
Roscommon
| 6,190
| 6,433
| 302
| 12,925
| -243
| 47.89%
| 49.77%
| -1.88%
|
Saginaw County:
|
|
|
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
Albee Twp
| 360
| 573
| 21
| 954
| -213
| 37.74%
| 60.06%
| -22.33%
|
Brady Twp
| 496
| 460
| 24
| 980
| 36
| 50.61%
| 46.94%
| 3.67%
|
Brant Twp
| 538
| 369
| 22
| 929
| 169
| 57.91%
| 39.72%
| 18.19%
|
Bridgeport Twp
| 1,842
| 3,252
| 102
| 5,196
| -1410
| 35.45%
| 62.59%
| -27.14%
|
Carrollton Twp
| 1,073
| 1,727
| 64
| 2,864
| -654
| 37.47%
| 60.30%
| -22.84%
|
Chapin Twp
| 217
| 146
| 11
| 374
| 71
| 58.02%
| 39.04%
| 18.98%
|
Chesaning Twp
| 1,125
| 1,242
| 59
| 2,426
| -117
| 46.37%
| 51.20%
| -4.82%
|
Fremont Twp
| 616
| 352
| 24
| 992
| 264
| 62.10%
| 35.48%
| 26.61%
|
James Twp
| 539
| 458
| 16
| 1,013
| 81
| 53.21%
| 45.21%
| 8.00%
|
Jonesfield Twp
| 408
| 373
| 17
| 798
| 35
| 51.13%
| 46.74%
| 4.39%
|
Kochville Twp
| 571
| 452
| 29
| 1,052
| 119
| 54.28%
| 42.97%
| 11.31%
|
Lakefield Twp
| 314
| 196
| 13
| 523
| 118
| 60.04%
| 37.48%
| 22.56%
|
Maple Grove Twp
| 659
| 740
| 20
| 1,419
| -81
| 46.44%
| 52.15%
| -5.71%
|
Marion Twp
| 219
| 154
| 6
| 379
| 65
| 57.78%
| 40.63%
| 17.15%
|
Richland Twp
| 1,286
| 767
| 44
| 2,097
| 519
| 61.33%
| 36.58%
| 24.75%
|
Saginaw Twp
| 10,875
| 9,499
| 380
| 20,754
| 1376
| 52.40%
| 45.77%
| 6.63%
|
Spaulding Twp
| 455
| 639
| 17
| 1,111
| -184
| 40.95%
| 57.52%
| -16.56%
|
St Charles Twp
| 703
| 717
| 36
| 1,456
| -14
| 48.28%
| 49.24%
| -0.96%
|
Swan Creek Twp
| 768
| 528
| 35
| 1,331
| 240
| 57.70%
| 39.67%
| 18.03%
|
Taymouth Twp
| 947
| 1,110
| 48
| 2,105
| -163
| 44.99%
| 52.73%
| -7.74%
|
Thomas Twp
| 3,667
| 2,656
| 122
| 6,445
| 1011
| 56.90%
| 41.21%
| 15.69%
|
Tittabawassee Twp
| 1,814
| 1,296
| 67
| 3,177
| 518
| 57.10%
| 40.79%
| 16.30%
|
City of Zilwaukee(part)
| 63
| 79
| 4
| 146
| -16
| 43.30%
| 53.95%
| -10.65%
|
Shiawassee County:
|
|
|
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
Caledonia Twp
| 968
| 1,086
| 55
| 2,109
| -118
| 45.90%
| 51.49%
| -5.60%
|
City of Corunna
| 626
| 727
| 48
| 1,401
| -101
| 44.68%
| 51.89%
| -7.21%
|
Fairfield Twp
| 174
| 174
| 11
| 359
| 0
| 48.47%
| 48.47%
| 0.00%
|
Hazelton Twp
| 508
| 625
| 24
| 1,157
| -117
| 43.91%
| 54.02%
| -10.11%
|
Middlebury Twp
| 394
| 337
| 20
| 751
| 57
| 52.46%
| 44.87%
| 7.59%
|
New Haven Twp
| 364
| 324
| 7
| 695
| 40
| 52.37%
| 46.62%
| 5.76%
|
City of Owosso
| 2,829
| 3,166
| 173
| 6,168
| -337
| 45.87%
| 51.33%
| -5.46%
|
Owosso Twp
| 1,265
| 1,067
| 69
| 2,401
| 198
| 52.69%
| 44.44%
| 8.25%
|
Rush Twp
| 345
| 350
| 8
| 703
| -5
| 49.08%
| 49.79%
| -0.71%
|
Venice Twp
| 613
| 579
| 35
| 1,227
| 34
| 49.96%
| 47.19%
| 2.77%
|
Vernon Twp (part)
| 192
| 203
| 8
| 402
| -11
| 47.64%
| 50.37%
| -2.73%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
| 153,974
| 125,502
| 8,123
| 287,599
| 28472
| 53.54%
| 43.64%
| 9.90%
|
Of the partial counties overall, Gore won Shiawassee with 49.72%, and Bush won this part of Saginaw County with 50.50%. Gore won Clare, Isabella, Roscommon, and this portion of Shiawassee County. The dems lost them all except Isabella County in 2004. Within Saginaw County, Bridgeport and Carrollton have significant minority populations. Albee, Maple Grove, Chesaning, Taymouth, and Spaulding are in a Southern rural section of the county that sometimes leans democrat.
2004 had interesting trends. Clare and Roscommon flipped. Leelanau stayed GOP, but flared up a bit. Midland did as well. In Saginaw, Brady Twp (in that southern rural tier) flipped to Kerry. St Charles flipped to Bush. The rest of the Bush increase was mainly due to Thomas Twp. In Shiawassee, Caledonia, Corunna, Rush Twp, and the portion of Vernon Twp flipped to Bush. Fairfield's tiebreak was won by Kerry. Overall, not a lot of difference in percentages. Bush took this portion of Shiawassee County 50.88% and this portion of Saginaw 52.09%. It was a slight upgrade overall.
2004 Election
| Bush
| Kerry
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
Clare
| 7,088
| 6,984
| 154
| 14,226
| 104
| 49.82%
| 49.09%
| 0.73%
|
Grand Traverse
| 27,446
| 18,256
| 489
| 46,191
| 9190
| 59.42%
| 39.52%
| 19.90%
|
Gratiot
| 9,834
| 7,377
| 168
| 17,379
| 2457
| 56.59%
| 42.45%
| 14.14%
|
Isabella
| 11,734
| 12,334
| 272
| 24,340
| -600
| 48.21%
| 50.67%
| -2.47%
|
Kalkaska
| 5,084
| 3,189
| 107
| 8,380
| 1895
| 60.67%
| 38.05%
| 22.61%
|
Leelanau
| 7,733
| 6,048
| 328
| 14,109
| 1685
| 54.81%
| 42.87%
| 11.94%
|
Mecosta
| 9,710
| 7,730
| 141
| 17,581
| 1980
| 55.23%
| 43.97%
| 11.26%
|
Midland
| 24,369
| 18,355
| 541
| 43,265
| 6014
| 56.32%
| 42.42%
| 13.90%
|
Missaukee
| 5,055
| 2,319
| 47
| 7,421
| 2736
| 68.12%
| 31.25%
| 36.87%
|
Montcalm
| 14,968
| 11,471
| 196
| 26,635
| 3497
| 56.20%
| 43.07%
| 13.13%
|
Osceola
| 6,599
| 4,467
| 122
| 11,188
| 2132
| 58.98%
| 39.93%
| 19.06%
|
Roscommon
| 7,364
| 6,810
| 185
| 14,359
| 554
| 51.28%
| 47.43%
| 3.86%
|
Saginaw County:
|
|
|
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
Albee Twp
| 441
| 635
| 11
| 1,087
| -194
| 40.57%
| 58.42%
| -17.85%
|
Brady Twp
| 540
| 560
| 27
| 1,127
| -20
| 47.91%
| 49.69%
| -1.77%
|
Brant Twp
| 620
| 469
| 16
| 1,105
| 151
| 56.11%
| 42.44%
| 13.67%
|
Bridgeport Twp
| 2,103
| 3,474
| 33
| 5,610
| -1371
| 37.49%
| 61.93%
| -24.44%
|
Carrollton Twp
| 1,277
| 1,730
| 28
| 3,035
| -453
| 42.08%
| 57.00%
| -14.93%
|
Chapin Twp
| 260
| 173
| 8
| 441
| 87
| 58.96%
| 39.23%
| 19.73%
|
Chesaning Twp
| 1,280
| 1,328
| 26
| 2,634
| -48
| 48.60%
| 50.42%
| -1.82%
|
Fremont Twp
| 680
| 422
| 10
| 1,112
| 258
| 61.15%
| 37.95%
| 23.20%
|
James Twp
| 588
| 522
| 5
| 1,115
| 66
| 52.74%
| 46.82%
| 5.92%
|
Jonesfield Twp
| 474
| 427
| 19
| 920
| 47
| 51.52%
| 46.41%
| 5.11%
|
Kochville Twp
| 707
| 563
| 14
| 1,284
| 144
| 55.06%
| 43.85%
| 11.21%
|
Lakefield Twp
| 334
| 249
| 12
| 595
| 85
| 56.13%
| 41.85%
| 14.29%
|
Maple Grove Twp
| 731
| 798
| 19
| 1,548
| -67
| 47.22%
| 51.55%
| -4.33%
|
Marion Twp
| 240
| 159
| 8
| 407
| 81
| 58.97%
| 39.07%
| 19.90%
|
Richland Twp
| 1,555
| 858
| 18
| 2,431
| 697
| 63.97%
| 35.29%
| 28.67%
|
Saginaw Twp
| 12,387
| 10,810
| 149
| 23,346
| 1577
| 53.06%
| 46.30%
| 6.75%
|
Spaulding Twp
| 491
| 669
| 9
| 1,169
| -178
| 42.00%
| 57.23%
| -15.23%
|
St Charles Twp
| 824
| 758
| 18
| 1,600
| 66
| 51.50%
| 47.38%
| 4.13%
|
Swan Creek Twp
| 863
| 600
| 14
| 1,477
| 263
| 58.43%
| 40.62%
| 17.81%
|
Taymouth Twp
| 1,072
| 1,258
| 25
| 2,355
| -186
| 45.52%
| 53.42%
| -7.90%
|
Thomas Twp
| 4,305
| 2,846
| 51
| 7,202
| 1459
| 59.78%
| 39.52%
| 20.26%
|
Tittabawassee Twp
| 2,409
| 1,573
| 25
| 4,007
| 836
| 60.12%
| 39.26%
| 20.86%
|
City of Zilwaukee(part)
| 75
| 84
| 1
| 161
| -9
| 46.94%
| 52.44%
| -5.50%
|
Shiawassee County:
|
|
|
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
Caledonia Twp
| 1,242
| 1,168
| 19
| 2,429
| 74
| 51.13%
| 48.09%
| 3.05%
|
City of Corunna
| 726
| 723
| 24
| 1,473
| 3
| 49.29%
| 49.08%
| 0.20%
|
Fairfield Twp
| 190
| 203
| 7
| 400
| -13
| 47.50%
| 50.75%
| -3.25%
|
Hazelton Twp
| 625
| 691
| 6
| 1,322
| -66
| 47.28%
| 52.27%
| -4.99%
|
Middlebury Twp
| 471
| 349
| 7
| 827
| 122
| 56.95%
| 42.20%
| 14.75%
|
New Haven Twp
| 458
| 334
| 7
| 799
| 124
| 57.32%
| 41.80%
| 15.52%
|
City of Owosso
| 3,336
| 3,523
| 85
| 6,944
| -187
| 48.04%
| 50.73%
| -2.69%
|
Owosso Twp
| 1,449
| 1,190
| 22
| 2,661
| 259
| 54.45%
| 44.72%
| 9.73%
|
Rush Twp
| 445
| 314
| 3
| 762
| 131
| 58.40%
| 41.21%
| 17.19%
|
Venice Twp
| 713
| 643
| 9
| 1,365
| 70
| 52.23%
| 47.11%
| 5.13%
|
Vernon Twp (part)
| 240
| 222
| 4
| 466
| 19
| 51.57%
| 47.57%
| 4.01%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
| 181,136
| 145,665
| 3,489
| 330,290
| 35471
| 54.84%
| 44.10%
| 10.74%
|
08 was trouble statewide, and this area is no different. The whole area shifted, but the biggest wern't the flip to the Gore numbers like Clare, Roscommon, and Albee, but the moves in Gratiot (Alma College), Leelanau (Traverse area), Grand Traverse (barely red), Bridgeport (minority), Chesaning (ethanol?), Owosso (McCain's auto comments?), and most of all Isabella County (CMU).
2008 Election
| McCain
| Obama
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
Clare
| 6,793
| 7,496
| 278
| 14,567
| -703
| 46.63%
| 51.46%
| -4.83%
|
Grand Traverse
| 24,716
| 23,258
| 759
| 48,733
| 1458
| 50.72%
| 47.73%
| 2.99%
|
Gratiot
| 8,322
| 9,105
| 311
| 17,738
| -783
| 46.92%
| 51.33%
| -4.41%
|
Isabella
| 11,220
| 16,679
| 451
| 28,350
| -5459
| 39.58%
| 58.83%
| -19.26%
|
Kalkaska
| 4,527
| 3,780
| 192
| 8,499
| 747
| 53.27%
| 44.48%
| 8.79%
|
Leelanau
| 6,938
| 7,355
| 171
| 14,464
| -417
| 47.97%
| 50.85%
| -2.88%
|
Mecosta
| 9,238
| 9,101
| 325
| 18,664
| 137
| 49.50%
| 48.76%
| 0.73%
|
Midland
| 22,263
| 20,701
| 713
| 43,677
| 1562
| 50.97%
| 47.40%
| 3.58%
|
Missaukee
| 4,469
| 2,898
| 125
| 7,492
| 1571
| 59.65%
| 38.68%
| 20.97%
|
Montcalm
| 13,291
| 13,208
| 562
| 27,061
| 83
| 49.11%
| 48.81%
| 0.31%
|
Osceola
| 5,973
| 4,855
| 198
| 11,026
| 1118
| 54.17%
| 44.03%
| 10.14%
|
Roscommon
| 6,727
| 7,082
| 232
| 14,041
| -355
| 47.91%
| 50.44%
| -2.53%
|
Saginaw County:
|
|
|
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
Albee Twp
| 417
| 645
| 33
| 1,095
| -228
| 38.08%
| 58.90%
| -20.82%
|
Brady Twp
| 481
| 629
| 29
| 1,139
| -148
| 42.23%
| 55.22%
| -12.99%
|
Brant Twp
| 543
| 487
| 22
| 1,052
| 56
| 51.62%
| 46.29%
| 5.32%
|
Bridgeport Twp
| 1,916
| 3,595
| 94
| 5,605
| -1679
| 34.18%
| 64.14%
| -29.96%
|
Carrollton Twp
| 1,065
| 1,866
| 64
| 2,995
| -801
| 35.56%
| 62.30%
| -26.74%
|
Chapin Twp
| 220
| 208
| 13
| 441
| 12
| 49.89%
| 47.17%
| 2.72%
|
Chesaning Twp
| 961
| 1,502
| 58
| 2,521
| -541
| 38.12%
| 59.58%
| -21.46%
|
Fremont Twp
| 607
| 513
| 25
| 1,145
| 94
| 53.01%
| 44.80%
| 8.21%
|
James Twp
| 621
| 537
| 22
| 1,180
| 84
| 52.63%
| 45.51%
| 7.12%
|
Jonesfield Twp
| 421
| 438
| 17
| 876
| -17
| 48.06%
| 50.00%
| -1.94%
|
Kochville Twp
| 709
| 749
| 28
| 1,486
| -40
| 47.71%
| 50.40%
| -2.69%
|
Lakefield Twp
| 288
| 281
| 15
| 584
| 7
| 49.32%
| 48.12%
| 1.20%
|
Maple Grove Twp
| 588
| 906
| 34
| 1,528
| -318
| 38.48%
| 59.29%
| -20.81%
|
Marion Twp
| 223
| 186
| 11
| 420
| 37
| 53.10%
| 44.29%
| 8.81%
|
Richland Twp
| 1,390
| 955
| 33
| 2,378
| 435
| 58.45%
| 40.16%
| 18.29%
|
Saginaw Twp
| 11,368
| 11,944
| 316
| 23,628
| -576
| 48.11%
| 50.55%
| -2.44%
|
Spaulding Twp
| 454
| 658
| 12
| 1,124
| -204
| 40.39%
| 58.54%
| -18.15%
|
St Charles Twp
| 702
| 850
| 39
| 1,591
| -148
| 44.12%
| 53.43%
| -9.30%
|
Swan Creek Twp
| 792
| 618
| 38
| 1,448
| 174
| 54.70%
| 42.68%
| 12.02%
|
Taymouth Twp
| 952
| 1,326
| 52
| 2,330
| -374
| 40.86%
| 56.91%
| -16.05%
|
Thomas Twp
| 4,056
| 3,181
| 113
| 7,350
| 875
| 55.18%
| 43.28%
| 11.90%
|
Tittabawassee Twp
| 2,449
| 1,992
| 65
| 4,506
| 457
| 54.35%
| 44.21%
| 10.14%
|
City of Zilwaukee(part)
| 64
| 84
| 2
| 150
| -20
| 42.81%
| 55.85%
| -13.04%
|
Shiawassee County:
|
|
|
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
Caledonia Twp
| 1,081
| 1,278
| 37
| 2,396
| -197
| 45.12%
| 53.34%
| -8.22%
|
City of Corunna
| 556
| 868
| 32
| 1,456
| -312
| 38.19%
| 59.62%
| -21.43%
|
Fairfield Twp
| 194
| 218
| 7
| 419
| -24
| 46.30%
| 52.03%
| -5.73%
|
Hazelton Twp
| 519
| 687
| 26
| 1,232
| -168
| 42.13%
| 55.76%
| -13.64%
|
Middlebury Twp
| 392
| 414
| 16
| 822
| -22
| 47.69%
| 50.36%
| -2.68%
|
New Haven Twp
| 357
| 404
| 11
| 772
| -47
| 46.24%
| 52.33%
| -6.09%
|
City of Owosso
| 2,646
| 4,004
| 147
| 6,797
| -1358
| 38.93%
| 58.91%
| -19.98%
|
Owosso Twp
| 1,213
| 1,477
| 50
| 2,740
| -264
| 44.27%
| 53.91%
| -9.64%
|
Rush Twp
| 356
| 381
| 16
| 753
| -25
| 47.28%
| 50.60%
| -3.32%
|
Venice Twp
| 609
| 691
| 19
| 1,319
| -82
| 46.17%
| 52.39%
| -6.22%
|
Vernon Twp (part)
| 205
| 237
| 9
| 451
| -32
| 45.42%
| 52.58%
| -7.16%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
| 163,892
| 170,327
| 5,822
| 340,041
| -6435
| 48.20%
| 50.09%
| -1.89%
|
Obama took 55.64% in that part of Shiawassee County, and 51.30% in that part of Saginaw County.
Geography is the big feature of this spread out district, much like the 1st. There's no true anchor (although in the 1st, the whole UP sticks together enough to be one), although Midland is the closest thing to an anchor as Camp and Schuette are the two most recent reps. The Saginaw County portion has the most votes, 66572, about 20% of the district. Grand Traverse County has the 2nd most votes, about 14% of the district. Midland has slightly less, 13%. Shiawassee has about 19,000 votes. Combining Saginaw and Midland, and that's 1/3 of the district. Add Isabella County next to Midland, and you have 41% of the district in those three counties. Saginaw County (Cars), Midland County (Dow), and Isabella County (CMU, Chippewa) all have different major interests once you get past farming. (Saginaw County actually has a LOT of agriculture, not something you notice if you are only on I-75, if you take M-13, you notice it, right up to city limits). Besides that main corridor, there's Greenville, former home of Electrolux before outsourcing sent it to Mexico, out in Montcalm County, about an hour or so away from Grand Rapids. Big Rapids, directly went of Mt Pleasant, is the home of Ferris State. Shiawassee County is between Lansing and Flint. Gratiot County is mostly farm related with an oil interest, as well as Alma College. The rest are rural northern counties that rely on small industry, tourism, and retirees. Clare and Roscommon are competitive, and Osceola and Missaukee are more Dutch influenced. Kalkaska is the spot you drive through from Grayling to Traverse City. Good fishing over there.
This geography is very favorable to Dave Camp. The only geographical weakness he has shown recently is narrower than expected 2004 and 2006 wins in one county which was the home county of Mike Huckleberry, who is now a state rep. Even Huckleberry didn't win Montcalm County until 2008. The geographical disadvantage for anyone running here is shown a bit in the farm clubs.
St. Senate 37 - Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Mackinac, and Presque Isle counties. Grand Traverse County is in the 4th district, and I believe Jason Allen is from that county.
St Senate 37th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
|
|
|
|
|
06 - Allen/Unger
| 63,479
| 43,476
|
| 106,955
| 20003
| 59.35%
| 40.65%
| 18.70%
|
02 - Allen/Estes
| 53,490
| 35,852
|
| 89,342
| 17638
| 59.87%
| 40.13%
| 19.74%
|
St. Senate 36 - Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco, Midland, Montmorency, Ogemaw, and Otsego counties. Tony Stamas is from Midland in the 4th district. Andy Neumann, Stamas's opponent from 02, is from Alpena and in the district. He's rumored to be running again for this district in 2010. If Camp unexpectedly retires, Stamas is probably currently the best shot for the district as Bill Schuette is running for AG.
St Senate 36th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
|
|
|
|
|
06 - Stamas/Reid
| 65,079
| 39,757
| 18
| 104,854
| 25322
| 62.07%
| 37.92%
| 24.15%
|
02 - Stamas/Neumann
| 46,511
| 44,487
|
| 90,998
| 2024
| 51.11%
| 48.89%
| 2.22%
|
State Senate 35 - Covers Benzie, Clare, Kalkaska, Lake, Leelanau, Manistee, Mecosta, Missaukee, Osceola, Roscommon, and Wexford Counties. Clare, Leelanau, Kalkaska, Osceola, and Roscommon are in the district. Michelle McManus, from Leelanau County, is termed out as State Senator, and running for Secretary of State. This is an open seat. McManus ran for the old 1st district 1998 against Bart Stupak.
St Senate 35th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
|
|
|
|
|
06 - McManus/Schippers
| 62199
| 40836
| 2146
| 105,181
| 21363
| 59.14%
| 38.82%
| 20.31%
|
02 - McManus/Dahlberg
| 51405
| 30942
| 2076
| 84,423
| 20463
| 60.89%
| 36.65%
| 24.24%
|
State Senate 33rd - Covers Clinton, Ionia, Isabella, and Montcalm Counties. This is a potentially competitive district now that the dems are competitive in Clinton and Montcalm counties. Isabella County has gone more and more blue with Central Michigan (Cropsey won it in 02, lost it in 06), so this can be one to watch. Alan Cropsey is termed out. He's from Clinton County in the 8th District. Isabella and Montcalm Counties are in the 4th.
St Senate 33rd
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
|
|
|
|
|
06 - Cropsey/White
| 49687
| 40771
| 1978
| 92,436
| 8916
| 53.75%
| 44.11%
| 9.65%
|
02 - Cropsey/Munsell
| 45487
| 26800
| 2076
| 74,363
| 18687
| 61.17%
| 36.04%
| 25.13%
|
St. Senate 32nd - Covers Saginaw and Gratiot Counties. This is a seat almost everybody expected to go democrat in 2006. Mike Goschka had a lot of cross party support and used it to win a similar district in 1998 and won the current district in 2002 relatively easily against former St Rep Mike Hanley. 2006 was open, and Roger Kahn won because of his victory spread in Gratiot County was larger than his defeat in Saginaw County. Both counties were close and the final number was 450 votes.
St Senate 32nd
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
|
|
|
|
|
06 - Kahn/Williams
| 45,781
| 45,331
| 2305
| 93,417
| 450
| 49.01%
| 48.53%
| 0.48%
|
02 - Goschka/Hanley
| 45,338
| 37,668
|
| 83,006
| 7670
| 54.62%
| 45.38%
| 9.24%
|
St Senate 22nd - Covers Livingston, Shiawassee, and Bunker Hill Twp, City of Leslie, Leslie Twp, City of Mason, Stockbridge Twp, and Vevay Township in Ingham County. Only Shiawassee is in the 8th District. This is a strongly Republican district. Even with the setbacks in 2006 and 2008, Livingston County can pull the weight of the rest of the district if it does flip. Garcia only lost Bunker Hill (somewhat surprising that he lost there and not Mason), Durand (in the 8th), Hazelton Twp, and Vernon Twp (the 8th portion only). Joe Hune is running for this seat. He lives in the 8th district, as did Garcia and his predecessor, Mike Rogers.
St Rep 104th - Covers Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties. Wayne Schmidt won the open seat against Roman Grucz, who lost in 2006. Grucz twice kept it close enough to sound an alarm. In 2006, he took Traverse City and Union Twps in Gd. Traverse County, and Bear Lake in Kalkaska. That's not in itself a major alarm, but in 2008, he took Traverse City by 1100 votes. It was Schmidt's only loss, but the margins in other areas were smaller. Hopefully, incumbency helps Wayne Schmidt.
St Rep 104th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Schmidt/Grucz
| 29,120
| 23,468
| 2069
| 54,657
| 5652
| 53.28%
| 42.94%
| 10.34%
|
06 - Walker/Grucz
| 24,386
| 17,329
|
| 41,715
| 7057
| 58.46%
| 41.54%
| 16.92%
|
04 - Walker/Karas
| 33,482
| 16,804
| 14
| 50,300
| 16678
| 66.56%
| 33.41%
| 33.16%
|
02 - Walker/Casler
| 21,931
| 11,493
| 521
| 33,945
| 10438
| 64.61%
| 33.86%
| 30.75%
|
St Rep 103rd - Iosco, Missaukee, Ogemaw, and Roscommon counties.
It's a swing district if someone not named Sheltrown is not running. Missaukee is usually the 2nd most GOP county in the state. The other three are competitive but have some democrat leanings. Ogemaw County is probably the most democrat of the bunch. Sheltrown is termed out, although it may be kept in the family if there's another family member running. Joel Sheltrown took over for his brother Dale Sheltrown. Missaukee and Roscommon Counties are in the 4th District. The rest is in the 1st, including Sheltrown.
St Rep 103rd
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Ryan/Sheltrown
| 15,003
| 29,927
|
| 44,930
| -14924
| 33.39%
| 66.61%
| -33.22%
|
06 - Moore/Sheltrown
| 11,468
| 25,155
|
| 36,623
| -13687
| 31.31%
| 68.69%
| -37.37%
|
04 - Rendon/Sheltrown
| 19,648
| 25,535
|
| 45,183
| -5887
| 43.49%
| 56.51%
| -13.03%
|
02 - Carlson/Sheltrown
| 13,457
| 18,571
|
| 32,028
| -5114
| 42.02%
| 57.98%
| -15.97%
|
State Rep 102nd - Covers Mecosta, Osceola, and Wexford Counties. Mecosta and Osceola are in the 4th.
St Rep 102nd
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Booher/Heffron
| 26,212
| 16,002
| 1241
| 43,455
| 10210
| 60.32%
| 36.82%
| 23.50%
|
06 - Booher/Heffron
| 21,637
| 13,260
|
| 34,897
| 8377
| 62.00%
| 38.00%
| 24.00%
|
04 - Booher/Challender
| 26,000
| 14,761
|
| 40,761
| 11239
| 63.79%
| 36.21%
| 27.57%
|
02 - Johnson/Challender
| 17,815
| 8,805
|
| 26,620
| 9010
| 66.92%
| 33.08%
| 33.85%
|
State Rep 101st - Covers Benzie, Leelanau, Manistee, and Mason counties. This seat flipped in 2008 after Republican David Palsok was termed out. there was a tough primary fight, and Dan Scripps, the democrat worked his ass off in this district. He was aided by Obama winning this district, but a lot of this I think he did on his own. He's probably the opponent I'd least like to see run for the 2nd, or for the McManus State Senate seat. Scripps won Leelanau County in 2006 against Palsrok and won all counties in 2008. I'm not sure if Scripps is in the 2nd or 4th. I think the 4th would be tougher for Scripps, but that's still not an opponent I'd want to face. Only Leelanau is in the 4th.
St Rep 101st
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Franz/Scripps
| 20,748
| 30,984
|
| 51,732
| -10236
| 40.11%
| 59.89%
| -19.79%
|
06 - Palsrok/Scripps
| 21,776
| 20,132
|
| 41,908
| 1644
| 51.96%
| 48.04%
| 3.92%
|
04 - Palsrok/Gebhard
| 26,990
| 21,457
|
| 48,447
| 5533
| 55.71%
| 44.29%
| 11.42%
|
02 - Palsrok/Krieger
| 18,684
| 15,754
|
| 34,438
| 2930
| 54.25%
| 45.75%
| 8.51%
|
St Rep 99th - Covers Isabella and most of Midland County (outside the City). This district will be one of the toughest GOP defenses in 2010 as Bill Caul is termed up. Sandy Caul preceded Bill, so this was kept in the family.
St Rep 99th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - B.Caul/White
| 22,486
| 17,578
| 1244
| 41,308
| 4908
| 54.43%
| 42.55%
| 11.88%
|
06 - B.Caul/Partlo
| 17,198
| 12,632
|
| 29,830
| 4566
| 57.65%
| 42.35%
| 15.31%
|
04 - B.Caul/Tillman
| 21,486
| 16,352
|
| 37,838
| 5134
| 56.78%
| 43.22%
| 13.57%
|
02 - S.Caul/Eastman
| 15,261
| 9,410
|
| 24,671
| 5851
| 61.86%
| 38.14%
| 23.72%
|
St Rep 98th - Covers Homer Twp, Ingersoll Twp, City of Midland, Midland Twp, and Mount Haley Twp in Midland County. Covers Brady Twp, Brant Twp, Carrollton Twp, Chapin Twp, Fremont Twp, Jonesfield Twp, Kochvlle Twp, Lakefield Twp, Marion Twp, Richland Twp, Tittabawassee Twp, Zilwaukee City and Twp. It was an open seat in 2008 and Jim Stamas and a tough but solid win over Garnet Lewis.
St Rep 98th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - J.Stamas/Lewis
| 25,980
| 18,781
| 2
| 44,763
| 7199
| 58.04%
| 41.96%
| 16.08%
|
06 - Moolenaar/Sutherland
| 21,566
| 13,558
|
| 35,124
| 8008
| 61.40%
| 38.60%
| 22.80%
|
04 - Moolenaar/Jones
| 28,431
| 15,057
|
| 43,488
| 13374
| 65.38%
| 34.62%
| 30.75%
|
02 - Moolenaar/Lefevre
| 19,423
| 11,110
|
| 30,533
| 8313
| 63.61%
| 36.39%
| 27.23%
|
St Rep 97th - Arenac, Clare, and Gladwin Counties. Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Mount Forest, and Pinconning Townships, and the city of Pinconning.
This seat flipped once after its creation in 2002. It went Democrat as an open seat, but flipped to the GOP in 2004 after the democrat voted against a gay marriage ban. It's a social conservative district, although quite populist and has some democrat leanings. Clare is the only county in the 4th district. Tim Moore is in Clare County, so he's in the 4th district. This will be a tossup seat in 2010 as Moore is termed out.
St Rep 97th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Moore/Wilton
| 25,996
| 16,877
|
| 42,873
| 9119
| 60.63%
| 39.37%
| 21.27%
|
06 - Moore/Schwab
| 18,893
| 16,321
|
| 35,214
| 2572
| 53.65%
| 46.35%
| 7.30%
|
04 - Moore/Elkins
| 22,320
| 20,883
|
| 43,203
| 1437
| 51.66%
| 48.34%
| 3.33%
|
02 - Coker/Elkins
| 14,137
| 14,480
|
| 28,617
| -343
| 49.40%
| 50.60%
| -1.20%
|
State Rep 95th - Covers Bridgeport Twp, Buena Vista Twp, the City of Saginaw, and Spaulding Twp. This is the main democrat district in Saginaw County. Most of it is in the 5th district with Dale Kildee and not in the 4th. It is anchored by the City of Saginaw, although Buena Vista Twp is actually more democrat. It is probably about 50% minority. It is represented by Andy Coulouris who won an open seat in 2006 vacated by Carl Williams who ran for state senate.
St Rep 95th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Rosingana/Coulouris
| 4,450
| 28,334
|
| 32,784
| -23884
| 13.57%
| 86.43%
| -72.85%
|
06 - Wilson/Coulouris
| 4,329
| 18,987
| 11
| 23,327
| -14658
| 18.56%
| 81.39%
| -62.84%
|
04 - Wendt/Williams
| 7,366
| 25,233
|
| 32,599
| -17867
| 22.60%
| 77.40%
| -54.81%
|
02 - Howe/Williams
| 6,042
| 16,987
|
| 23,029
| -10945
| 26.24%
| 73.76%
| -47.53%
|
State Rep 94th - Covers Albee Twp, Birch Run Twp, Blumfield Twp, Chesaning Twp, City of Frankenmuth, Frankenmuth Twp, James Twp, Maple Grove Twp, Saginaw Twp, St Charles Twp, Swan Creek Twp, Taymouth Twp, and Thomas Twp in Saginaw County. It is a competitive district that has been GOP since Jim Howell won it in the late 90's. Most of this district is in the 4th, outside of Birch Run, Blumfield, and Frankenmuth that is in Kildee's district. Frankenmuth is the most Republican part of the county, and helps counterbalance Albee, Taymouth, Maple Grove, and Chesaning.
St Rep 94th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Horn/Blaine
| 28,451
| 20,890
|
| 49,341
| 7561
| 57.66%
| 42.34%
| 15.32%
|
06 - Horn/Blaine
| 21,106
| 18,604
|
| 39,710
| 2502
| 53.15%
| 46.85%
| 6.30%
|
04 - Kahn/Muter
| 28,925
| 20,061
|
| 48,986
| 8864
| 59.05%
| 40.95%
| 18.09%
|
02 - Howell/Braun
| 20,757
| 15,020
| 320
| 36,097
| 5737
| 57.50%
| 41.61%
| 15.89%
|
St Rep 93rd - Covers most of Clinton County and all of Gratiot County. While Clinton County made a gigantic blue shift in 2008, the biggest shift was in the portion in the 85th district which is a major cause of concern. The rest of the shift is smaller, but still a cause of concern in the 93rd. It shifted for three reasons. 1. MSU. Students are now living in Clinton County and going to MSU. That is due partly to East Lansing annexation, but more due to apartment buildings going up in the southern portion of Bath Twp. Bush won Bath Township in 2000. He lost Bath Twp in 2004, but kept Kerry under 50%. It was a 3 vote margin. In 2008, Obama won Clinton County as a whole by 279 votes. He won Bath Township by 936 votes, and East Lansing (in Clinton County) by 354 votes. That's the difference between the normal 08 blue shift, and the major shift like Isabella County. Reason 2. Government workers. Clinton County is a Lansing/East Lansing commuter county. Reason 3. Clinton GOP took the county for granted. Most of Clinton County is in the 8th district, so I am quite familiar with it. It's been GOP for years, so people assumed it would always be that way. Wrong. Luckily, the results woke them up, and Bath Twp especially. I wish I knew more about Gratiot County, but I suspect Alma College was the reason for the shift there.
Paul Opsommer is the rep for the district. He won relatively easily in 06 and 08 considering the state's recent election patterns in Clinton County. The good news is that Bath is not in this district. Part of the East Lansing precinct is. Opsommer's only 08 loss was in East Lansing. No republicans win there. DuPlain Twp was close however, although it was close in 00 and 04 for Bush too. It's in the Northeast Corner of Clinton County. In 2006, it was closer (Clinton County is more democrat in gubernatorial years due to state workers). DuPlain, East Lansing went Dem in Clinton. In Gratiot, Alma, StLouis, and Sumner went Dem.
St Rep 93rd
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Opsommer/McComb
| 26,515
| 17,957
| 1356
| 45,828
| 8558
| 57.86%
| 39.18%
| 18.67%
|
06 - Opsommer/McComb
| 20,700
| 16,049
|
| 36,749
| 4651
| 56.33%
| 43.67%
| 12.66%
|
04 - Hummel/Birchman
| 29,138
| 14,606
|
| 43,744
| 14532
| 66.61%
| 33.39%
| 33.22%
|
02 - Hummel/Lott
| 20,278
| 10,026
|
| 30,304
| 10252
| 66.92%
| 33.08%
| 33.83%
|
St rep 85th - Covers all of Shiawassee County and Bath, Ovid, and Victor Twps in Clinton County. This is going to be the big barnburner race in 2010, like it is every time it opens up. This district was held by a populist democrat for 20 years before term limits. Larry Julian won a similar district in 1998 for Republicans by 351 votes. It opened up in 2004, a GOP year in Shiawassee County, and Richard Ball won it by 3000 votes. It's open again in 2010, and the bad news is that Clinton County portions (specificaly Bath and part of East Lansing) in this district no longer help the GOP. It's up to the always unpredictable Shiawassee County. In 04, I was starting to think that Shiawassee may be moving in Livingston County's direction since 53% was a big number then. Then came 06 and 08. Shiawassee County is as competitive as it always was. It's not what I'd call a liberal area socially, but it is populist. In 08, Ball won his last term against Judy Ford. He lost East Lansing and Bath in 06 and 08. (Won Bath in 04, lost East Lansing). By percentage, Ball won Shiawassee County more than Clinton County in 2008.
St Rep 85th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Ball/Ford
| 23,591
| 19,691
| 1369
| 44,651
| 3900
| 52.83%
| 44.10%
| 8.73%
|
06 - Ball/Ford
| 19,731
| 15,907
|
| 35,638
| 3824
| 55.37%
| 44.63%
| 10.73%
|
04 - Ball/Powers
| 23,191
| 20,011
| 830
| 44,032
| 3180
| 52.67%
| 45.45%
| 7.22%
|
02 - Julian/Kregger
| 18,234
| 11,306
| 549
| 30,089
| 6928
| 60.60%
| 37.58%
| 23.03%
|
St Rep 70 - Covers Montcalm and Part of Ionia County - This should be a competitive seat. If the GOP is going to take back the state house, this is a good first target. Mike Huckleberry won it somewhat narrowly in an open seat after losing twice in his congressional run (although he ran well in Montcalm County) against Dave Camp.
St Rep 70th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Ginster/Huckleberry
| 16,234
| 18,983
|
| 35,217
| -2749
| 46.10%
| 53.90%
| -7.81%
|
06 - Emmons/Mahar
| 18,382
| 10,704
|
| 29,086
| 7678
| 63.20%
| 36.80%
| 26.40%
|
04 - Emmons/Sanchez
| 22,774
| 11,732
|
| 34,506
| 11042
| 66.00%
| 34.00%
| 32.00%
|
02 - Emmons/Sanchez
| 14,610
| 7,588
|
| 22,198
| 7022
| 65.82%
| 34.18%
| 31.63%
|
Overall this seat is likely safe for Camp. I wouldn't quite call it a Republican seat, but geography favors the GOP here.Huckleberry, Scripps, Coulouris and Sheltrown are the democrats representing portions of the district and two of them are in the 1st and 5th. Scripps MAY be in the 4th (might be 2nd). Despite partisan drawings of the district, I think Scripps would be more of a threat in the 2nd than in the 4th, but he's not one to take lightly. Huckleberry lost twice to Camp. The Roger Kahn, Bill Caul and Richard Ball seats will be difficult to defend. I wouldn't take the Cropsey or Opsommer seat lightly either. If a dem takes the Cropsey seat, or if a district area dem (not Hanley, Williams, or Coulouris who are in the 5th) takes the Kahn seat, then I'd get my guard up (barring major redistricting changes) if Camp retires or runs for Governor/Senate.
This is not an easy district, but Camp has run well here, even when it was rough (Clinton, 06, Obama).
