Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Congressional District 4 (MI-04) Updated

Update 5-18-2010 - Listed candidates.
Michigan's 3rd District - Congress

Incumbent - Dave Camp (R-Midland)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 20.
Cook District Numbers - R+6

GOP Candidate - Dave Camp
Dem Candidate - Jerry Campbell of St Helen (Roscommon County)

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 50%
McCain - 48%

2004:
Bush – 55%
Kerry – 44%

2000:
Bush 54%
Gore 44%



This is a geography based district that is safe for Camp, but should be a barnburner if it ever opens up. It's a district with several red zones and several blue zones. Dave Camp won in 1990 replacing Bill Schuette who ran for Senate. Schuette beat a democrat in 1984 in an old district. Redistricting changed this district slightly, but it's main points are the same.

Obama did well in most of the counties, but Camp also won easily. Bush won most of the areas easily in 2004 and 2000. Keep in mind that the portion of Saginaw County in this district does not cover the highly democrat City of Saginaw. Saginaw County as a whole usually votes similar to neighboring Bay County, although Saginaw County's portion usually is independent with slight Republican leanings (less so in 2008, and was historically democrat until the mid-late 90's - Lew Dodak represented that area) outside of the inner ring (Bridgeport and Carrollton), while Bay County's non city portion is strongly democrat, although not that liberal. In a very simplistic sense, Saginaw County is a regional county. The city is very democrat. The Eastern suburbs are very democrat. The rural southern area leans democrat. The eastern edge (Frankenmuth) is Republican. The rural western and western surbubs lean republican. That's not always the case, but is a general rule to follow.

The GOP took a hit statewide, but not quite the same hit here as was taken in West Michigan, College towns, and Oakland County. The big hit here is Isabella County, home of Central Michigan University. Isabella County has gone rapidly blue since 2000 (although it was last won by the GOP for President in 1988) as John Engler's influence has lessened. Leelanau and Grand Traverse County have major bleeding as well that needs to be stopped. There's bleeding elsewhere here too, but Clinton cleaned up this district in 96. Obama didn't match that, although he did well. Camp survived all of that with little trouble. His weakest election was 2008 with almost 62% of the vote and never had less than 60%. The irony is that he was stronger in 2000 than 2004, despite Bush doing better in 04. That was due to now state rep Mike Huckleberry almost winning his home county in 04 and 06. Huckleberry ran twice for the seat getting less than 40% each time. Camp still won Huckleberry's county twice.

Here's the 2008 numbers.

2008 Election
Camp
Cocannon
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clare
9,275
4,555
328
     14,158
4720
65.51%
32.17%
33.34%
Grand Traverse
29,285
16,241
1294
     46,820
13044
62.55%
34.69%
27.86%
Gratiot
11,132
5,789
393
     17,314
5343
64.29%
33.44%
30.86%
Isabella
15,379
10,810
741
     26,930
4569
57.11%
40.14%
16.97%
Kalkaska
5,375
2,549
277
       8,201
2826
65.54%
31.08%
34.46%
Leelanau
8,448
5,311
275
     14,034
3137
60.20%
37.84%
22.35%
Mecosta
11,461
6,137
484
     18,082
5324
63.38%
33.94%
29.44%
Midland
27,910
14,364
834
     43,108
13546
64.74%
33.32%
31.42%
Missaukee
5,457
1,760
137
       7,354
3697
74.20%
23.93%
50.27%
Montcalm
16,005
9,161
899
     26,065
6844
61.40%
35.15%
26.26%
Osceola
7,536
3,001
278
     10,815
4535
69.68%
27.75%
41.93%
Roscommon
9,230
4,204
313
     13,747
5026
67.14%
30.58%
36.56%
Saginaw County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Albee Twp
546
492
28
       1,066
54
51.22%
46.15%
5.07%
Brady Twp
682
393
29
       1,104
289
61.78%
35.60%
26.18%
Brant Twp
661
350
24
       1,035
311
63.86%
33.82%
30.05%
Bridgeport Twp
2,399
2,967
90
       5,456
-568
43.97%
54.38%
-10.41%
Carrollton Twp
1,306
1,533
80
       2,919
-227
44.74%
52.52%
-7.78%
Chapin Twp
286
125
11
         422
161
67.77%
29.62%
38.15%
Chesaning Twp
1450
952
44
       2,446
498
59.28%
38.92%
20.36%
Fremont Twp
707
375
28
       1,110
332
63.69%
33.78%
29.91%
James Twp
704
437
15
       1,156
267
60.90%
37.80%
23.10%
Jonesfield Twp
506
327
20
         853
179
59.32%
38.34%
20.98%
Kochville Twp
780
596
27
       1,403
184
55.60%
42.48%
13.11%
Lakefield Twp
353
201
19
         573
152
61.61%
35.08%
26.53%
Maple Grove Twp
859
576
27
       1,462
283
58.76%
39.40%
19.36%
Marion Twp
260
129
15
         404
131
64.36%
31.93%
32.43%
Richland Twp
1,532
740
49
       2,321
792
66.01%
31.88%
34.12%
Saginaw Twp
12,781
9,889
325
     22,995
2892
55.58%
43.01%
12.58%
Spaulding Twp
505
577
18
       1,100
-72
45.91%
52.45%
-6.55%
St Charles Twp
864
639
39
       1,542
225
56.03%
41.44%
14.59%
Swan Creek Twp
879
493
28
       1,400
386
62.79%
35.21%
27.57%
Taymouth Twp
1,177
988
41
       2,206
189
53.35%
44.79%
8.57%
Thomas Twp
4,554
2,490
106
       7,150
2064
63.69%
34.83%
28.87%
Tittabawassee Twp
796
744
26
       1,566
52
50.83%
47.51%
3.32%
City of Zilwaukee(part)
70
49
0
         119
21
58.82%
41.18%
17.65%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Caledonia Twp
1,495
805
42
       2,342
690
63.83%
34.37%
29.46%
City of Corunna
784
555
36
       1,375
229
57.02%
40.36%
16.65%
Fairfield Twp
244
138
20
         402
106
60.70%
34.33%
26.37%
Hazelton Twp
676
492
20
       1,188
184
56.90%
41.41%
15.49%
Middlebury Twp
502
262
26
         790
240
63.54%
33.16%
30.38%
New Haven Twp
536
210
15
         761
326
70.43%
27.60%
42.84%
City of Owosso
3,718
2,664
187
       6,569
1054
56.60%
40.55%
16.05%
Owosso Twp
1,698
918
50
       2,666
780
63.69%
34.43%
29.26%
Rush Twp
476
244
14
         734
232
64.85%
33.24%
31.61%
Venice Twp
750
516
38
       1,304
234
57.52%
39.57%
17.94%
Vernon Twp (part)
213
146
12
         371
67
57.41%
39.35%
18.06%









Total
202,242
116,894
7,802
326,938
85348
61.86%
35.75%
26.11%


Camp usually sweeps the district and did so again. All of his wins are relatively consistent so I'll only post 2008. I don't see a big threat to Camp for awhile. Geography is his best friend. Dan Scripps has a geography disadvantage. Mike Huckleberry lost twice, although he's stronger now than he was before. Isabella County actually still has a GOP State rep (termed out) and State Senator. Shiawassee County has a GOP rep (termed out) and is in Livingston County's state senate district. So does Clare. The Sheltrowns representing Roscommon are the best shot to win by views, but they are in the 1st district. Saginaw County's top democrats are in the 5th. I can see Isabella County's state rep seat flipping, and the usual dogfight down in Shiawassee County, but that's about it. If the dems can't even get Isabella County away from Camp, there's not even a contest. Spaulding, Bridgeport, and Carrollton are base townships for democrats so that's no cause for alarm with the GOP. Bush never even broke 43% there. Camp even won the cities of Mt Pleasant and Traverse City themselves. The only areas Camp lost were those three, arguably the hardest for a GOP candidate to in the district (Although I'd put Mt. Pleasant in the Bridgeport category of difficulty.)

The presidential numbers are an approximation. The City of Zilwaukee is a split precinct, so my numbers are probably more democrat than the actual total. About 1/6 of the city is in Camp's District with 5/6 in Kildee's. I'm not good enough to split precincts, so that will have to do. The same problem comes up with Vernon Twp in Shiawassee County. Precinct 1 is in both Camp's district and Rogers district. I'll divide the numbers there by 1/3, since about 2/3 is in the Rogers district.

Here are the Bush Numbers from 2000


2000 Election
Bush
Gore
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clare
5,937
6,327
383
     12,647
-390
46.94%
50.03%
-3.08%
Grand Traverse
22,358
14,371
1500
     38,229
7987
58.48%
37.59%
20.89%
Gratiot
8,312
6,358
329
     14,999
1954
55.42%
42.39%
13.03%
Isabella
10,053
10,228
788
     21,069
-175
47.71%
48.55%
-0.83%
Kalkaska
3,842
2,774
233
       6,849
1068
56.10%
40.50%
15.59%
Leelanau
6,840
4,635
534
     12,009
2205
56.96%
38.60%
18.36%
Mecosta
8,072
6,300
379
     14,751
1772
54.72%
42.71%
12.01%
Midland
21,887
15,959
1042
     38,888
5928
56.28%
41.04%
15.24%
Missaukee
4,274
2,062
161
       6,497
2212
65.78%
31.74%
34.05%
Montcalm
12,696
9,627
582
     22,905
3069
55.43%
42.03%
13.40%
Osceola
5,680
4,006
251
       9,937
1674
57.16%
40.31%
16.85%
Roscommon
6,190
6,433
302
     12,925
-243
47.89%
49.77%
-1.88%
Saginaw County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Albee Twp
360
573
21
         954
-213
37.74%
60.06%
-22.33%
Brady Twp
496
460
24
         980
36
50.61%
46.94%
3.67%
Brant Twp
538
369
22
         929
169
57.91%
39.72%
18.19%
Bridgeport Twp
1,842
3,252
102
       5,196
-1410
35.45%
62.59%
-27.14%
Carrollton Twp
1,073
1,727
64
       2,864
-654
37.47%
60.30%
-22.84%
Chapin Twp
217
146
11
         374
71
58.02%
39.04%
18.98%
Chesaning Twp
1,125
1,242
59
       2,426
-117
46.37%
51.20%
-4.82%
Fremont Twp
616
352
24
         992
264
62.10%
35.48%
26.61%
James Twp
539
458
16
       1,013
81
53.21%
45.21%
8.00%
Jonesfield Twp
408
373
17
         798
35
51.13%
46.74%
4.39%
Kochville Twp
571
452
29
       1,052
119
54.28%
42.97%
11.31%
Lakefield Twp
314
196
13
         523
118
60.04%
37.48%
22.56%
Maple Grove Twp
659
740
20
       1,419
-81
46.44%
52.15%
-5.71%
Marion Twp
219
154
6
         379
65
57.78%
40.63%
17.15%
Richland Twp
1,286
767
44
       2,097
519
61.33%
36.58%
24.75%
Saginaw Twp
10,875
9,499
380
     20,754
1376
52.40%
45.77%
6.63%
Spaulding Twp
455
639
17
       1,111
-184
40.95%
57.52%
-16.56%
St Charles Twp
703
717
36
       1,456
-14
48.28%
49.24%
-0.96%
Swan Creek Twp
768
528
35
       1,331
240
57.70%
39.67%
18.03%
Taymouth Twp
947
1,110
48
       2,105
-163
44.99%
52.73%
-7.74%
Thomas Twp
3,667
2,656
122
       6,445
1011
56.90%
41.21%
15.69%
Tittabawassee Twp
1,814
1,296
67
       3,177
518
57.10%
40.79%
16.30%
City of Zilwaukee(part)
63
79
4
         146
-16
43.30%
53.95%
-10.65%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Caledonia Twp
968
1,086
55
       2,109
-118
45.90%
51.49%
-5.60%
City of Corunna
626
727
48
       1,401
-101
44.68%
51.89%
-7.21%
Fairfield Twp
174
174
11
         359
0
48.47%
48.47%
0.00%
Hazelton Twp
508
625
24
       1,157
-117
43.91%
54.02%
-10.11%
Middlebury Twp
394
337
20
         751
57
52.46%
44.87%
7.59%
New Haven Twp
364
324
7
         695
40
52.37%
46.62%
5.76%
City of Owosso
2,829
3,166
173
       6,168
-337
45.87%
51.33%
-5.46%
Owosso Twp
1,265
1,067
69
       2,401
198
52.69%
44.44%
8.25%
Rush Twp
345
350
8
         703
-5
49.08%
49.79%
-0.71%
Venice Twp
613
579
35
       1,227
34
49.96%
47.19%
2.77%
Vernon Twp (part)
192
203
8
         402
-11
47.64%
50.37%
-2.73%









Total
153,974
125,502
8,123
287,599
28472
53.54%
43.64%
9.90%


Of the partial counties overall, Gore won Shiawassee with 49.72%, and Bush won this part of Saginaw County with 50.50%. Gore won Clare, Isabella, Roscommon, and this portion of Shiawassee County. The dems lost them all except Isabella County in 2004. Within Saginaw County, Bridgeport and Carrollton have significant minority populations. Albee, Maple Grove, Chesaning, Taymouth, and Spaulding are in a Southern rural section of the county that sometimes leans democrat.


2004 had interesting trends. Clare and Roscommon flipped. Leelanau stayed GOP, but flared up a bit. Midland did as well. In Saginaw, Brady Twp (in that southern rural tier) flipped to Kerry. St Charles flipped to Bush. The rest of the Bush increase was mainly due to Thomas Twp. In Shiawassee, Caledonia, Corunna, Rush Twp, and the portion of Vernon Twp flipped to Bush. Fairfield's tiebreak was won by Kerry. Overall, not a lot of difference in percentages. Bush took this portion of Shiawassee County 50.88% and this portion of Saginaw 52.09%. It was a slight upgrade overall.


2004 Election
Bush
Kerry
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clare
7,088
6,984
154
     14,226
104
49.82%
49.09%
0.73%
Grand Traverse
27,446
18,256
489
     46,191
9190
59.42%
39.52%
19.90%
Gratiot
9,834
7,377
168
     17,379
2457
56.59%
42.45%
14.14%
Isabella
11,734
12,334
272
     24,340
-600
48.21%
50.67%
-2.47%
Kalkaska
5,084
3,189
107
       8,380
1895
60.67%
38.05%
22.61%
Leelanau
7,733
6,048
328
     14,109
1685
54.81%
42.87%
11.94%
Mecosta
9,710
7,730
141
     17,581
1980
55.23%
43.97%
11.26%
Midland
24,369
18,355
541
     43,265
6014
56.32%
42.42%
13.90%
Missaukee
5,055
2,319
47
       7,421
2736
68.12%
31.25%
36.87%
Montcalm
14,968
11,471
196
     26,635
3497
56.20%
43.07%
13.13%
Osceola
6,599
4,467
122
     11,188
2132
58.98%
39.93%
19.06%
Roscommon
7,364
6,810
185
     14,359
554
51.28%
47.43%
3.86%
Saginaw County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Albee Twp
441
635
11
       1,087
-194
40.57%
58.42%
-17.85%
Brady Twp
540
560
27
       1,127
-20
47.91%
49.69%
-1.77%
Brant Twp
620
469
16
       1,105
151
56.11%
42.44%
13.67%
Bridgeport Twp
2,103
3,474
33
       5,610
-1371
37.49%
61.93%
-24.44%
Carrollton Twp
1,277
1,730
28
       3,035
-453
42.08%
57.00%
-14.93%
Chapin Twp
260
173
8
         441
87
58.96%
39.23%
19.73%
Chesaning Twp
1,280
1,328
26
       2,634
-48
48.60%
50.42%
-1.82%
Fremont Twp
680
422
10
       1,112
258
61.15%
37.95%
23.20%
James Twp
588
522
5
       1,115
66
52.74%
46.82%
5.92%
Jonesfield Twp
474
427
19
         920
47
51.52%
46.41%
5.11%
Kochville Twp
707
563
14
       1,284
144
55.06%
43.85%
11.21%
Lakefield Twp
334
249
12
         595
85
56.13%
41.85%
14.29%
Maple Grove Twp
731
798
19
       1,548
-67
47.22%
51.55%
-4.33%
Marion Twp
240
159
8
         407
81
58.97%
39.07%
19.90%
Richland Twp
1,555
858
18
       2,431
697
63.97%
35.29%
28.67%
Saginaw Twp
12,387
10,810
149
     23,346
1577
53.06%
46.30%
6.75%
Spaulding Twp
491
669
9
       1,169
-178
42.00%
57.23%
-15.23%
St Charles Twp
824
758
18
       1,600
66
51.50%
47.38%
4.13%
Swan Creek Twp
863
600
14
       1,477
263
58.43%
40.62%
17.81%
Taymouth Twp
1,072
1,258
25
       2,355
-186
45.52%
53.42%
-7.90%
Thomas Twp
4,305
2,846
51
       7,202
1459
59.78%
39.52%
20.26%
Tittabawassee Twp
2,409
1,573
25
       4,007
836
60.12%
39.26%
20.86%
City of Zilwaukee(part)
75
84
1
         161
-9
46.94%
52.44%
-5.50%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Caledonia Twp
1,242
1,168
19
       2,429
74
51.13%
48.09%
3.05%
City of Corunna
726
723
24
       1,473
3
49.29%
49.08%
0.20%
Fairfield Twp
190
203
7
         400
-13
47.50%
50.75%
-3.25%
Hazelton Twp
625
691
6
       1,322
-66
47.28%
52.27%
-4.99%
Middlebury Twp
471
349
7
         827
122
56.95%
42.20%
14.75%
New Haven Twp
458
334
7
         799
124
57.32%
41.80%
15.52%
City of Owosso
3,336
3,523
85
       6,944
-187
48.04%
50.73%
-2.69%
Owosso Twp
1,449
1,190
22
       2,661
259
54.45%
44.72%
9.73%
Rush Twp
445
314
3
         762
131
58.40%
41.21%
17.19%
Venice Twp
713
643
9
       1,365
70
52.23%
47.11%
5.13%
Vernon Twp (part)
240
222
4
         466
19
51.57%
47.57%
4.01%









Total
181,136
145,665
3,489
330,290
35471
54.84%
44.10%
10.74%

08 was trouble statewide, and this area is no different. The whole area shifted, but the biggest wern't the flip to the Gore numbers like Clare, Roscommon, and Albee, but the moves in Gratiot (Alma College), Leelanau (Traverse area), Grand Traverse (barely red), Bridgeport (minority), Chesaning (ethanol?), Owosso (McCain's auto comments?),  and most of all Isabella County (CMU).


2008 Election
McCain
Obama
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clare
6,793
7,496
278
     14,567
-703
46.63%
51.46%
-4.83%
Grand Traverse
24,716
23,258
759
     48,733
1458
50.72%
47.73%
2.99%
Gratiot
8,322
9,105
311
     17,738
-783
46.92%
51.33%
-4.41%
Isabella
11,220
16,679
451
     28,350
-5459
39.58%
58.83%
-19.26%
Kalkaska
4,527
3,780
192
       8,499
747
53.27%
44.48%
8.79%
Leelanau
6,938
7,355
171
     14,464
-417
47.97%
50.85%
-2.88%
Mecosta
9,238
9,101
325
     18,664
137
49.50%
48.76%
0.73%
Midland
22,263
20,701
713
     43,677
1562
50.97%
47.40%
3.58%
Missaukee
4,469
2,898
125
       7,492
1571
59.65%
38.68%
20.97%
Montcalm
13,291
13,208
562
     27,061
83
49.11%
48.81%
0.31%
Osceola
5,973
4,855
198
     11,026
1118
54.17%
44.03%
10.14%
Roscommon
6,727
7,082
232
     14,041
-355
47.91%
50.44%
-2.53%
Saginaw County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Albee Twp
417
645
33
       1,095
-228
38.08%
58.90%
-20.82%
Brady Twp
481
629
29
       1,139
-148
42.23%
55.22%
-12.99%
Brant Twp
543
487
22
       1,052
56
51.62%
46.29%
5.32%
Bridgeport Twp
1,916
3,595
94
       5,605
-1679
34.18%
64.14%
-29.96%
Carrollton Twp
1,065
1,866
64
       2,995
-801
35.56%
62.30%
-26.74%
Chapin Twp
220
208
13
         441
12
49.89%
47.17%
2.72%
Chesaning Twp
961
1,502
58
       2,521
-541
38.12%
59.58%
-21.46%
Fremont Twp
607
513
25
       1,145
94
53.01%
44.80%
8.21%
James Twp
621
537
22
       1,180
84
52.63%
45.51%
7.12%
Jonesfield Twp
421
438
17
         876
-17
48.06%
50.00%
-1.94%
Kochville Twp
709
749
28
       1,486
-40
47.71%
50.40%
-2.69%
Lakefield Twp
288
281
15
         584
7
49.32%
48.12%
1.20%
Maple Grove Twp
588
906
34
       1,528
-318
38.48%
59.29%
-20.81%
Marion Twp
223
186
11
         420
37
53.10%
44.29%
8.81%
Richland Twp
1,390
955
33
       2,378
435
58.45%
40.16%
18.29%
Saginaw Twp
11,368
11,944
316
     23,628
-576
48.11%
50.55%
-2.44%
Spaulding Twp
454
658
12
       1,124
-204
40.39%
58.54%
-18.15%
St Charles Twp
702
850
39
       1,591
-148
44.12%
53.43%
-9.30%
Swan Creek Twp
792
618
38
       1,448
174
54.70%
42.68%
12.02%
Taymouth Twp
952
1,326
52
       2,330
-374
40.86%
56.91%
-16.05%
Thomas Twp
4,056
3,181
113
       7,350
875
55.18%
43.28%
11.90%
Tittabawassee Twp
2,449
1,992
65
       4,506
457
54.35%
44.21%
10.14%
City of Zilwaukee(part)
64
84
2
         150
-20
42.81%
55.85%
-13.04%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Caledonia Twp
1,081
1,278
37
       2,396
-197
45.12%
53.34%
-8.22%
City of Corunna
556
868
32
       1,456
-312
38.19%
59.62%
-21.43%
Fairfield Twp
194
218
7
         419
-24
46.30%
52.03%
-5.73%
Hazelton Twp
519
687
26
       1,232
-168
42.13%
55.76%
-13.64%
Middlebury Twp
392
414
16
         822
-22
47.69%
50.36%
-2.68%
New Haven Twp
357
404
11
         772
-47
46.24%
52.33%
-6.09%
City of Owosso
2,646
4,004
147
       6,797
-1358
38.93%
58.91%
-19.98%
Owosso Twp
1,213
1,477
50
       2,740
-264
44.27%
53.91%
-9.64%
Rush Twp
356
381
16
         753
-25
47.28%
50.60%
-3.32%
Venice Twp
609
691
19
       1,319
-82
46.17%
52.39%
-6.22%
Vernon Twp (part)
205
237
9
         451
-32
45.42%
52.58%
-7.16%









Total
163,892
170,327
5,822
340,041
-6435
48.20%
50.09%
-1.89%

Obama took 55.64% in that part of Shiawassee County, and 51.30% in that part of Saginaw County.

Geography is the big feature of this spread out district, much like the 1st.  There's no true anchor (although in the 1st, the whole UP sticks together enough to be one), although Midland is the closest thing to an anchor as Camp and Schuette are the two most recent reps. The Saginaw County portion has the most votes, 66572, about 20% of the district.  Grand Traverse County has the 2nd most votes, about 14% of the district. Midland has slightly less, 13%. Shiawassee has about 19,000 votes. Combining Saginaw and Midland, and that's 1/3 of the district. Add Isabella County next to Midland, and you have 41% of the district in those three counties. Saginaw County (Cars), Midland County (Dow), and Isabella County (CMU, Chippewa) all have different major interests once you get past farming. (Saginaw County actually has a LOT of agriculture, not something you notice if you are only on I-75, if you take M-13, you notice it, right up to city limits). Besides that main corridor, there's Greenville, former home of Electrolux before outsourcing sent it to Mexico, out in Montcalm County, about an hour or so away from Grand Rapids. Big Rapids, directly went of Mt Pleasant, is the home of Ferris State. Shiawassee County is between Lansing and Flint. Gratiot County is mostly farm related with an oil interest, as well as Alma College. The rest are rural northern counties that rely on small industry, tourism, and retirees. Clare and Roscommon are competitive, and Osceola and Missaukee are more Dutch influenced.  Kalkaska is the spot you drive through from Grayling to Traverse City. Good fishing over there.

This geography is very favorable to Dave Camp. The only geographical weakness he has shown recently is narrower than expected 2004 and 2006 wins in one county which was the home county of Mike Huckleberry, who is now a state rep. Even Huckleberry didn't win Montcalm County until 2008. The geographical disadvantage for anyone running here is shown a bit in the farm clubs.

St. Senate 37 - Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Mackinac, and Presque Isle counties. Grand Traverse County is in the 4th district, and I believe Jason Allen is from that county.


St Senate 37th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Allen/Unger
63,479
43,476

   106,955
20003
59.35%
40.65%
18.70%
02 - Allen/Estes
53,490
35,852

     89,342
17638
59.87%
40.13%
19.74%

St. Senate 36 - Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco, Midland, Montmorency, Ogemaw, and Otsego counties. Tony Stamas is from Midland in the 4th district. Andy Neumann, Stamas's opponent from 02, is from Alpena and in the district. He's rumored to be running again for this district in 2010. If Camp unexpectedly retires, Stamas is probably currently the best shot for the district as Bill Schuette is running for AG.


St Senate 36th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Stamas/Reid
65,079
39,757
18
   104,854
25322
62.07%
37.92%
24.15%
02 - Stamas/Neumann
46,511
44,487

     90,998
2024
51.11%
48.89%
2.22%

State Senate 35 - Covers Benzie, Clare, Kalkaska, Lake, Leelanau, Manistee, Mecosta, Missaukee, Osceola, Roscommon, and Wexford Counties. Clare, Leelanau, Kalkaska, Osceola, and Roscommon are in the district. Michelle McManus, from Leelanau County, is termed out as State Senator, and running for Secretary of State. This is an open seat. McManus ran for the old 1st district 1998 against Bart Stupak.


St Senate 35th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - McManus/Schippers
62199
40836
2146
   105,181
21363
59.14%
38.82%
20.31%
02 - McManus/Dahlberg
51405
30942
2076
     84,423
20463
60.89%
36.65%
24.24%

State Senate 33rd - Covers Clinton, Ionia, Isabella, and Montcalm Counties. This is a potentially competitive district now that the dems are competitive in Clinton and Montcalm counties. Isabella County has gone more and more blue with Central Michigan (Cropsey won it in 02, lost it in 06), so this can be one to watch. Alan Cropsey is termed out. He's from Clinton County in the 8th District. Isabella and Montcalm Counties are in the 4th.


St Senate 33rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Cropsey/White
49687
40771
1978
     92,436
8916
53.75%
44.11%
9.65%
02 - Cropsey/Munsell
45487
26800
2076
     74,363
18687
61.17%
36.04%
25.13%

St. Senate 32nd - Covers Saginaw and Gratiot Counties. This is a seat almost everybody expected to go democrat in 2006. Mike Goschka had a lot of cross party support and used it to win a similar district in 1998 and won the current district in 2002 relatively easily against former St Rep Mike Hanley. 2006 was open, and Roger Kahn won because of his victory spread in Gratiot County was larger than his defeat in Saginaw County. Both counties were close and the final number was 450 votes.


St Senate 32nd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Kahn/Williams
45,781
45,331
2305
     93,417
450
49.01%
48.53%
0.48%
02 - Goschka/Hanley
45,338
37,668

     83,006
7670
54.62%
45.38%
9.24%


St Senate 22nd - Covers Livingston, Shiawassee, and Bunker Hill Twp, City of Leslie, Leslie Twp, City of Mason, Stockbridge Twp, and Vevay Township in Ingham County. Only Shiawassee is in the 8th District. This is a strongly Republican district. Even with the setbacks in 2006 and 2008, Livingston County can pull the weight of the rest of the district if it does flip. Garcia only lost Bunker Hill (somewhat surprising that he lost there and not Mason), Durand (in the 8th), Hazelton Twp, and Vernon Twp (the 8th portion only). Joe Hune is running for this seat. He lives in the 8th district, as did Garcia and his predecessor, Mike Rogers.

St Rep 104th - Covers Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties. Wayne Schmidt won the open seat against Roman Grucz, who lost in 2006. Grucz twice kept it close enough to sound an alarm. In 2006, he took Traverse City and Union Twps in Gd. Traverse County, and Bear Lake in Kalkaska. That's not in itself a major alarm, but in 2008, he took Traverse City by 1100 votes. It was Schmidt's only loss, but the margins in other areas were smaller. Hopefully, incumbency helps Wayne Schmidt.

St Rep 104th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Schmidt/Grucz
29,120
23,468
2069
     54,657
5652
53.28%
42.94%
10.34%
06 - Walker/Grucz
24,386
17,329

     41,715
7057
58.46%
41.54%
16.92%
04 - Walker/Karas
33,482
16,804
14
     50,300
16678
66.56%
33.41%
33.16%
02 - Walker/Casler
21,931
11,493
521
     33,945
10438
64.61%
33.86%
30.75%


St Rep 103rd - Iosco, Missaukee, Ogemaw, and Roscommon counties.

It's a swing district if someone not named Sheltrown is not running. Missaukee is usually the 2nd most GOP county in the state. The other three are competitive but have some democrat leanings. Ogemaw County is probably the most democrat of the bunch. Sheltrown is termed out, although it may be kept in the family if there's another family member running. Joel Sheltrown took over for his brother Dale Sheltrown. Missaukee and Roscommon Counties are in the 4th District. The rest is in the 1st, including Sheltrown. 


St Rep 103rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Ryan/Sheltrown
15,003
29,927

     44,930
-14924
33.39%
66.61%
-33.22%
06 - Moore/Sheltrown
11,468
25,155

     36,623
-13687
31.31%
68.69%
-37.37%
04 - Rendon/Sheltrown
19,648
25,535

     45,183
-5887
43.49%
56.51%
-13.03%
02 - Carlson/Sheltrown
13,457
18,571

     32,028
-5114
42.02%
57.98%
-15.97%

State Rep 102nd - Covers Mecosta, Osceola, and Wexford Counties. Mecosta and Osceola are in the 4th.


St Rep 102nd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Booher/Heffron
26,212
16,002
1241
     43,455
10210
60.32%
36.82%
23.50%
06 - Booher/Heffron
21,637
13,260

     34,897
8377
62.00%
38.00%
24.00%
04 - Booher/Challender
26,000
14,761

     40,761
11239
63.79%
36.21%
27.57%
02 - Johnson/Challender
17,815
8,805

     26,620
9010
66.92%
33.08%
33.85%

State Rep 101st - Covers Benzie, Leelanau, Manistee, and Mason counties. This seat flipped in 2008 after Republican David Palsok was termed out. there was a tough primary fight, and Dan Scripps, the democrat worked his ass off in this district. He was aided by Obama winning this district, but a lot of this I think he did on his own. He's probably the opponent I'd least like to see run for the 2nd, or for the McManus State Senate seat. Scripps won Leelanau County in 2006 against Palsrok and won all counties in 2008. I'm not sure if Scripps is in the 2nd or 4th. I think the 4th would be tougher for Scripps, but that's still not an opponent I'd want to face. Only Leelanau is in the 4th.


St Rep 101st
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Franz/Scripps
20,748
30,984

     51,732
-10236
40.11%
59.89%
-19.79%
06 - Palsrok/Scripps
21,776
20,132

     41,908
1644
51.96%
48.04%
3.92%
04 - Palsrok/Gebhard
26,990
21,457

     48,447
5533
55.71%
44.29%
11.42%
02 - Palsrok/Krieger
18,684
15,754

     34,438
2930
54.25%
45.75%
8.51%

St Rep 99th - Covers Isabella and most of Midland County (outside the City). This district will be one of the toughest GOP defenses in 2010 as Bill Caul is termed up. Sandy Caul preceded Bill, so this was kept in the family.


St Rep 99th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - B.Caul/White
22,486
17,578
1244
     41,308
4908
54.43%
42.55%
11.88%
06 - B.Caul/Partlo
17,198
12,632

     29,830
4566
57.65%
42.35%
15.31%
04 - B.Caul/Tillman
21,486
16,352

     37,838
5134
56.78%
43.22%
13.57%
02 - S.Caul/Eastman
15,261
9,410

     24,671
5851
61.86%
38.14%
23.72%


St  Rep 98th - Covers Homer Twp, Ingersoll Twp, City of Midland, Midland Twp, and Mount Haley Twp in Midland County. Covers Brady Twp, Brant Twp, Carrollton Twp, Chapin Twp, Fremont Twp, Jonesfield Twp, Kochvlle Twp, Lakefield Twp, Marion Twp, Richland Twp, Tittabawassee Twp, Zilwaukee City and Twp. It was an open seat in 2008 and Jim Stamas and a tough but solid win over Garnet Lewis.


St Rep 98th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - J.Stamas/Lewis
25,980
18,781
2
     44,763
7199
58.04%
41.96%
16.08%
06 - Moolenaar/Sutherland
21,566
13,558

     35,124
8008
61.40%
38.60%
22.80%
04 - Moolenaar/Jones
28,431
15,057

     43,488
13374
65.38%
34.62%
30.75%
02 - Moolenaar/Lefevre
19,423
11,110

     30,533
8313
63.61%
36.39%
27.23%


St Rep 97th - Arenac, Clare, and Gladwin Counties. Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Mount Forest, and Pinconning Townships, and the city of Pinconning.

This seat flipped once after its creation in 2002. It went Democrat as an open seat, but flipped to the GOP in 2004 after the democrat voted against a gay marriage ban. It's a social conservative district, although quite populist and has some democrat leanings. Clare is the only county in the 4th district. Tim Moore is in Clare County, so he's in the 4th district. This will be a tossup seat in 2010 as Moore is termed out.


St Rep 97th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Moore/Wilton
25,996
16,877

     42,873
9119
60.63%
39.37%
21.27%
06 - Moore/Schwab
18,893
16,321

     35,214
2572
53.65%
46.35%
7.30%
04 - Moore/Elkins
22,320
20,883

     43,203
1437
51.66%
48.34%
3.33%
02 - Coker/Elkins
14,137
14,480

     28,617
-343
49.40%
50.60%
-1.20%

State Rep 95th - Covers Bridgeport Twp, Buena Vista Twp, the City of Saginaw, and Spaulding Twp. This is the main democrat district in Saginaw County. Most of it is in the 5th district with Dale Kildee and not in the 4th. It is anchored by the City of Saginaw, although Buena Vista Twp is actually more democrat. It is probably about 50% minority. It is represented by Andy Coulouris who won an open seat in 2006 vacated by Carl Williams who ran for state senate.


St Rep 95th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Rosingana/Coulouris
4,450
28,334

     32,784
-23884
13.57%
86.43%
-72.85%
06 - Wilson/Coulouris
4,329
18,987
11
     23,327
-14658
18.56%
81.39%
-62.84%
04 - Wendt/Williams
7,366
25,233

     32,599
-17867
22.60%
77.40%
-54.81%
02 - Howe/Williams
6,042
16,987

     23,029
-10945
26.24%
73.76%
-47.53%

State Rep 94th - Covers Albee Twp, Birch Run Twp, Blumfield Twp, Chesaning Twp, City of Frankenmuth, Frankenmuth Twp, James Twp, Maple Grove Twp, Saginaw Twp, St Charles Twp, Swan Creek Twp, Taymouth Twp, and Thomas Twp in Saginaw County. It is a competitive district that has been GOP since Jim Howell won it in the late 90's. Most of this district is in the 4th, outside of Birch Run, Blumfield, and Frankenmuth that is in Kildee's district. Frankenmuth is the most Republican part of the county, and helps counterbalance Albee, Taymouth, Maple Grove, and Chesaning.


St Rep 94th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Horn/Blaine
28,451
20,890

     49,341
7561
57.66%
42.34%
15.32%
06 - Horn/Blaine
21,106
18,604

     39,710
2502
53.15%
46.85%
6.30%
04 - Kahn/Muter
28,925
20,061

     48,986
8864
59.05%
40.95%
18.09%
02 - Howell/Braun
20,757
15,020
320
     36,097
5737
57.50%
41.61%
15.89%

St Rep 93rd   - Covers most of Clinton County and all of Gratiot County. While Clinton County made a gigantic blue shift in 2008, the biggest shift was in the portion in the 85th district which is a major cause of concern. The rest of the shift is smaller, but still a cause of concern in the 93rd. It shifted for three reasons. 1. MSU. Students are now living in Clinton County and going to MSU. That is due partly to East Lansing annexation, but more due to apartment buildings going up in the southern portion of Bath Twp. Bush won Bath Township in 2000. He lost Bath Twp in 2004, but kept Kerry under 50%. It was a 3 vote margin. In 2008, Obama won Clinton County as a whole by 279 votes. He won Bath Township by 936 votes, and East Lansing (in Clinton County) by 354 votes. That's the difference between the normal 08 blue shift, and the major shift like Isabella County. Reason 2. Government workers. Clinton County is a Lansing/East Lansing commuter county. Reason 3. Clinton GOP took the county for granted. Most of Clinton County is in the 8th district, so I am quite familiar with it. It's been GOP for years, so people assumed it would always be that way. Wrong. Luckily, the results woke them up, and Bath Twp especially. I wish I knew more about Gratiot County, but I suspect Alma College was the reason for the shift there.

Paul Opsommer is the rep for the district. He won relatively easily in 06 and 08 considering the state's recent election patterns in Clinton County. The good news is that Bath is not in this district. Part of the East Lansing precinct is. Opsommer's only 08 loss was in East Lansing. No republicans win there. DuPlain Twp was close however, although it was close in 00 and 04 for Bush too. It's in the Northeast Corner of Clinton County. In 2006, it was closer (Clinton County is more democrat in gubernatorial years due to state workers). DuPlain, East Lansing went Dem in Clinton. In Gratiot, Alma, StLouis, and Sumner went Dem.


St Rep 93rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Opsommer/McComb
26,515
17,957
1356
     45,828
8558
57.86%
39.18%
18.67%
06 - Opsommer/McComb
20,700
16,049

     36,749
4651
56.33%
43.67%
12.66%
04 - Hummel/Birchman
29,138
14,606

     43,744
14532
66.61%
33.39%
33.22%
02 - Hummel/Lott
20,278
10,026

     30,304
10252
66.92%
33.08%
33.83%

St rep 85th - Covers all of Shiawassee County and Bath, Ovid, and Victor Twps in Clinton County. This is going to be the big barnburner race in 2010, like it is every time it opens up. This district was held by a populist democrat for 20 years before term limits. Larry Julian won a similar district in 1998 for Republicans by 351 votes. It opened up in 2004, a GOP year in Shiawassee County, and Richard Ball won it by 3000 votes. It's open again in 2010, and the bad news is that Clinton County portions (specificaly Bath and part of East Lansing) in this district no longer help the GOP. It's up to the always unpredictable Shiawassee County. In 04, I was starting to think that Shiawassee may be moving in Livingston County's direction since 53% was a big number then. Then came 06 and 08. Shiawassee County is as competitive as it always was. It's not what I'd call a liberal area socially, but it is populist. In 08, Ball won his last term against Judy Ford. He lost East Lansing and Bath in 06 and 08. (Won Bath in 04, lost East Lansing). By percentage, Ball won Shiawassee County more than Clinton County in 2008.


St Rep 85th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Ball/Ford
23,591
19,691
1369
     44,651
3900
52.83%
44.10%
8.73%
06 - Ball/Ford
19,731
15,907

     35,638
3824
55.37%
44.63%
10.73%
04 - Ball/Powers
23,191
20,011
830
     44,032
3180
52.67%
45.45%
7.22%
02 - Julian/Kregger
18,234
11,306
549
     30,089
6928
60.60%
37.58%
23.03%

St Rep 70 - Covers Montcalm and Part of Ionia County - This should be a competitive seat. If the GOP is going to take back the state house, this is a good first target. Mike Huckleberry won it somewhat narrowly in an open seat after losing twice in his congressional run (although he ran well in Montcalm County) against Dave Camp.


St Rep 70th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Ginster/Huckleberry
16,234
18,983

     35,217
-2749
46.10%
53.90%
-7.81%
06 - Emmons/Mahar
18,382
10,704

     29,086
7678
63.20%
36.80%
26.40%
04 - Emmons/Sanchez
22,774
11,732

     34,506
11042
66.00%
34.00%
32.00%
02 - Emmons/Sanchez
14,610
7,588

     22,198
7022
65.82%
34.18%
31.63%

Overall this seat is likely safe for Camp. I wouldn't quite call it a Republican seat, but geography favors the GOP here.Huckleberry, Scripps, Coulouris and Sheltrown are the democrats representing portions of the district and two of them are in the 1st and 5th. Scripps MAY be in the 4th (might be 2nd). Despite partisan drawings of the district, I think Scripps would be more of a threat in the 2nd than in the 4th, but he's not one to take lightly. Huckleberry lost twice to Camp. The Roger Kahn, Bill Caul and Richard Ball seats will be difficult to defend. I wouldn't take the Cropsey or Opsommer seat lightly either. If a dem takes the Cropsey seat, or if a district area dem (not Hanley, Williams, or Coulouris who are in the 5th) takes the Kahn seat, then I'd get my guard up (barring major  redistricting changes) if Camp retires or runs for Governor/Senate.

This is not an easy district, but Camp has run well here, even when it was rough  (Clinton, 06, Obama).



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