Sunday, June 19, 2011

Congressional District 4 - Redistricted (MI-04)


Incumbent - Dave Camp (R-Midland)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 22.
The old 4th District information is here

Challenger - Debra Freidell Wirth (D-Eagle)


This district changes a bit compared to last time. It loses Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, and Leelanau Counties to Dan Benishek. They all lean R, although Leelanau less so. It loses Spaulding (Dem), Bridgeport (Dem), and part of Saginaw Township (competitive) in Saginaw County to Dale Kildee. It regains Clinton County (Slight R lean) from Mike Rogers which was in the district in the 90's. It picks up the rest of Shiawassee County (Competitive) from Rogers, Wexford County (R) from Huizenga, and Gladwin and Ogemaw Counties (Both swing counties) from Benishek. It also picks up from Kildee the Frankenmuth area, which is staunch Republican.

I think this district is safe for Camp, although picking up Ogemaw can be a problem because of ex state-reps Dale and Joel Sheltrown, both strong potential candidates. I'd rather have him pick up Ogemaw than Bay County/City and ex-Congressman Jim Barcia though. Barcia has shown in the past that he can win anywhere he's run. So has Joel Sheltrown, but Sheltrown's an ex state rep and not an ex-congressman. Sometimes it's not the partisan numbers that matter as much as who lives there.

The rest of the district stayed the same. It's strong for Camp, although it could be competitive if Camp steps down. The big reason is Isabella County, Mt Pleasant is fast growing and blue due to Central Michigan University. Camp does well in Mt Pleasant. There is not a strong bench for the dems in the district outside of Ogemaw County. The only county Camp himself has had trouble with is Montcalm, due to Greenville native Mike Huckleberry coming close to winning twice. Huckleberry was later a one term state rep who lost after supporting Granholm's tax plans.

The partisan numbers are slightly better at the top of the ticket. Obama did win the new district with a 3700 vote spread. The old district had a 6400 vote spread. Bush has a 37000 vote spread in the new district, 35000 in the old one. Camp had an 85000 vote spread in his old district, and 57000 vote spread in the areas he's represented in the new district. Those are approximates, since Saginaw Township was split.

Here's the Obama, Bush, and 2010 Camp numbers:


McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clare 6793 7496 14289 -703 47.54% 52.46% -4.92%
Clinton 19726 20005 39731 -279 49.65% 50.35% -0.70%
Gladwin 6391 6590 12981 -199 49.23% 50.77% -1.53%
Gratiot 8322 9105 17427 -783 47.75% 52.25% -4.49%
Isabella 11220 16679 27899 -5459 40.22% 59.78% -19.57%
Mecosta 9283 9101 18384 182 50.49% 49.51% 0.99%
Midland 22263 20701 42964 1562 51.82% 48.18% 3.64%
Missaukee 4469 2898 7367 1571 60.66% 39.34% 21.32%
Montcalm 13291 13208 26499 83 50.16% 49.84% 0.31%
Ogemaw 5133 5391 10524 -258 48.77% 51.23% -2.45%
Osceola 5973 4855 10828 1118 55.16% 44.84% 10.33%
Roscommon 6727 7082 13809 -355 48.71% 51.29% -2.57%
Shiawassee 16268 19397 35665 -3129 45.61% 54.39% -8.77%
Wexford 8044 7379 15423 665 52.16% 47.84% 4.31%
Saginaw County 42225 60276 102501 -18051 41.19% 58.81% -17.61%
Blumfield Twp -850 -358 -1208 -492 70.36% 29.64% 40.73%
Bridgeport Twp -1916 -3595 -5511 1679 34.77% 65.23% -30.47%
Buena Vista Twp -562 -3813 -4375 3251 12.85% 87.15% -74.31%
Carrollton Twp -1065 -1866 -2931 801 36.34% 63.66% -27.33%
Saginaw City -4419 -18591 -23010 14172 19.20% 80.80% -61.59%
Saginaw Twp(part) -11368 -11944 -23312 576 48.76% 51.24% -2.47%
Spaulding Twp -454 -658 -1112 204 40.83% 59.17% -18.35%
Zilwaukee City -384 -501 -885 117 43.39% 56.61% -13.22%
Zilwaukee Twp -23 -22 -45 -1 51.11% 48.89% 2.22%
Total 165087 168815 333902 -3728 49.44% 50.56% -1.12%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clare 7088 6984 14072 104 50.37% 49.63% 0.74%
Clinton 21989 15483 37472 6506 58.68% 41.32% 17.36%
Gladwin 6770 6343 13113 427 51.63% 48.37% 3.26%
Gratiot 9834 7377 17211 2457 57.14% 42.86% 14.28%
Isabella 11754 12334 24088 -580 48.80% 51.20% -2.41%
Mecosta 9710 7730 17440 1980 55.68% 44.32% 11.35%
Midland 24369 18355 42724 6014 57.04% 42.96% 14.08%
Missaukee 5055 2319 7374 2736 68.55% 31.45% 37.10%
Montcalm 14968 11471 26439 3497 56.61% 43.39% 13.23%
Ogemaw 5454 5215 10669 239 51.12% 48.88% 2.24%
Osceola 6599 4467 11066 2132 59.63% 40.37% 19.27%
Roscommon 7364 6810 14174 554 51.95% 48.05% 3.91%
Shiawassee 19407 16881 36288 2526 53.48% 46.52% 6.96%
Wexford 8966 6034 15000 2932 59.77% 40.23% 19.55%
Saginaw County 47165 54887 102052 -7722 46.22% 53.78% -7.57%
Blumfield Twp -896 -362 -1258 -534 71.22% 28.78% 42.45%
Bridgeport Twp -2103 -3474 -5577 1371 37.71% 62.29% -24.58%
Buena Vista Twp -713 -3472 -4185 2759 17.04% 82.96% -65.93%
Carrollton Twp -1277 -1730 -3007 453 42.47% 57.53% -15.06%
Saginaw City -5800 -16992 -22792 11192 25.45% 74.55% -49.10%
Saginaw Twp(part) -12387 -10810 -23197 -1577 53.40% 46.60% 6.80%
Spaulding Twp -491 -669 -1160 178 42.33% 57.67% -15.34%
Zilwaukee City -452 -505 -957 53 47.23% 52.77% -5.54%
Zilwaukee Twp -36 -17 -53 -19 67.92% 32.08% 35.85%
Total 182337 144659 326996 37678 55.76% 44.24% 11.52%









Camp Campbell Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clare 6040 2836 8876 3204 68.05% 31.95% 36.10%
Clinton

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Gladwin

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Gratiot 7462 3174 10636 4288 70.16% 29.84% 40.32%
Isabella 9577 5744 15321 3833 62.51% 37.49% 25.02%
Mecosta 8039 3339 11378 4700 70.65% 29.35% 41.31%
Midland 20121 7823 27944 12298 72.00% 28.00% 44.01%
Missaukee 4055 1053 5108 3002 79.39% 20.61% 58.77%
Montcalm 11839 5145 16984 6694 69.71% 30.29% 39.41%
Ogemaw

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Osceola 5458 1823 7281 3635 74.96% 25.04% 49.92%
Roscommon 6621 2832 9453 3789 70.04% 29.96% 40.08%
Shiawassee 7322 4162 11484 3160 63.76% 36.24% 27.52%
Wexford

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Saginaw County 28809 15076 43885 13733 65.65% 34.35% 31.29%
Blumfield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgeport Twp -1779 -1888 -3667 109 48.51% 51.49% -2.97%
Buena Vista Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Carrollton Twp -952 -801 -1753 -151 54.31% 45.69% 8.61%
Saginaw City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Saginaw Twp(part) -10555 -5484 -16039 -5071 65.81% 34.19% 31.62%
Spaulding Twp -396 -339 -735 -57 53.88% 46.12% 7.76%
Zilwaukee City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Zilwaukee Twp -59 -33 -92 -26 64.13% 35.87% 28.26%
Total 101602 44462 146064 57140 69.56% 30.44% 39.12%

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