State House Redistricting - District 50 (HD-50)

State House - District 50
Current Rep - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)

Candidates:
GOP - Miles Gadola (R-Grand Blanc)
Dem - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)

Update 5-26-2012 - This is what gets me about that whole Paul Scott recall in the first place. Redistricting would have caught him. All that recall did was set up Joe Graves in the 51st. There's no primary here. If it's a good year and Gadola runs a top shelf campaign with the help he needs, then he has a chance. Smiley is favored to win however with Burton.

2010 Results - Old District (50th)
Charles Smiley - 13,647
William Ralph - 12,134

Old District 51st
Paul Scott - 22,509
Art Reyes - 15,275

This district changed significantly from the old 50th. It drops everything except Burton and picks up Mundy Twp and Grand Blanc City/Twp from the old 51st. Paul Scott would be in this district, but he was recalled last November. If Joe Graves replaces him, he would be in the new 51st.

I can see this district being competitive in a 2010 type of year, but in most years it will lean democrat. While Bush won it in 04, the Grand Blanc area is not trending favorably with more of Flint moving there. Burton has been democrat as long as I remember, and Mundy Twp leans that way. It would take big numbers in Grand Blanc to win this district. This seat leans dem until proven otherwise.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	4981	9057	14038	-4076	35.48%	64.52%	-29.04%
Grand Blanc	1991	2411	4402	-420	45.23%	54.77%	-9.54%
Grand Blanc Twp	8309	10951	19260	-2642	43.14%	56.86%	-13.72%
Mundy Twp	3688	4807	8495	-1119	43.41%	56.59%	-13.17%
Total	18969	27226	46195	-8257	41.06%	58.94%	-17.87%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	5829	8304	14133	-2475	41.24%	58.76%	-17.51%
Grand Blanc	2394	1985	4379	409	54.67%	45.33%	9.34%
Grand Blanc Twp	9369	8862	18231	507	51.39%	48.61%	2.78%
Mundy Twp	3999	4102	8101	-103	49.36%	50.64%	-1.27%
Total	21591	23253	44844	-1662	48.15%	51.85%	-3.71%
Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	3610	4757	8367	-1147	43.15%	56.85%	-13.71%
Grand Blanc			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grand Blanc Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Mundy Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	3610	4757	8367	-1147	43.15%	56.85%	-13.71%

State House Redistricting - District 48 (HD-48)

State House - District 48
Current Rep - Open

Candidates:
GOP - Jeff Woolman (R-Davison)
Dem - Pam Faris (D-Clio),

Update 5-26-2012 - Pam Faris is definitely the favorite to win. She's the wife of John Cherry and a former union president herself. Gleason could make it interesting if people think they are voting for John Gleason. I don't know if they are relatives or not, but it could impact things. I never bet against a Cherry in Genesee County.

Update 8-30-2012 - Pam Faris won, but only by 24 votes over Gleason. This could be a sleeper contest with the right candidates in the right year, but I don't bet against a Cherry in Genesee County.

2010 Results - Old District (48th)
Richard Hammel - 28,251
Ralph Burger - 13,703

Old District 50th
Charles Smiley - 13,647
William Ralph - 12,134

All of the Genesse County districts have changed a bit due to population shifts. This district is opened up and was mostly Hammel's old district, with part of Smiley's district as well.

The old 48th covered Clayton Twp, Clio, Flushing City and Twp, Forest Twp, Montrose city and Twp, Mt Morris City and Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp.

The new 48th drops Mt Morris and the City of Flushing to the 49th, Flushing and Clayton Townships to the 51st, and picks up Genesee, Richfield, and Davison City/Twp from the 50th.

The district leans democrat, but could be competitive in a 2010 or 1994 type of year. It doesn't have Burton or Mt Morris anchoring the district, although it's still John Cherry country, and there's still the democrat stronghold of Genesee Township. For the "last state house" portion, I combined the last two state rep races from the 48th and 50th. It's apples to oranges to a degree as one race was competitive and the other not. William Ralph might make this district interesting if he lives here, but I can't bet against the dems here.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clio	384	761	1145	-377	33.54%	66.46%	-32.93%
Davison	1053	1625	2678	-572	39.32%	60.68%	-21.36%
Davison Twp	4474	5776	10250	-1302	43.65%	56.35%	-12.70%
Forest Twp	1089	1516	2605	-427	41.80%	58.20%	-16.39%
Genesee Twp	3313	7148	10461	-3835	31.67%	68.33%	-36.66%
Montrose	296	471	767	-175	38.59%	61.41%	-22.82%
Montrose Twp	1201	1796	2997	-595	40.07%	59.93%	-19.85%
Richfield Twp	1911	2890	4801	-979	39.80%	60.20%	-20.39%
Thetford Twp	1360	2314	3674	-954	37.02%	62.98%	-25.97%
Vienna Twp	2715	4175	6890	-1460	39.40%	60.60%	-21.19%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	17796	28472	46268	-10676	38.46%	61.54%	-23.07%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clio	533	691	1224	-158	43.55%	56.45%	-12.91%
Davison	1317	1540	2857	-223	46.10%	53.90%	-7.81%
Davison Twp	4833	5041	9874	-208	48.95%	51.05%	-2.11%
Forest Twp	1271	1414	2685	-143	47.34%	52.66%	-5.33%
Genesee Twp	3805	7010	10815	-3205	35.18%	64.82%	-29.63%
Montrose	349	451	800	-102	43.63%	56.38%	-12.75%
Montrose Twp	1365	1643	3008	-278	45.38%	54.62%	-9.24%
Richfield Twp	2149	2630	4779	-481	44.97%	55.03%	-10.06%
Thetford Twp	1611	2246	3857	-635	41.77%	58.23%	-16.46%
Vienna Twp	3083	3851	6934	-768	44.46%	55.54%	-11.08%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	20316	26517	46833	-6201	43.38%	56.62%	-13.24%
Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clio	282	391	673	-109	41.90%	58.10%	-16.20%
Davison	883	876	1759	7	50.20%	49.80%	0.40%
Davison Twp	3562	2915	6477	647	54.99%	45.01%	9.99%
Forest Twp	829	868	1697	-39	48.85%	51.15%	-2.30%
Genesee Twp	2538	3563	6101	-1025	41.60%	58.40%	-16.80%
Montrose	221	281	502	-60	44.02%	55.98%	-11.95%
Montrose Twp	844	984	1828	-140	46.17%	53.83%	-7.66%
Richfield Twp	1541	1536	3077	5	50.08%	49.92%	0.16%
Thetford Twp	971	1218	2189	-247	44.36%	55.64%	-11.28%
Vienna Twp	1904	2376	4280	-472	44.49%	55.51%	-11.03%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	13575	15008	28583	-1433	47.49%	52.51%	-5.01%