Monday, January 09, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 48 (HD-48)

State House - District 48
Current Rep - Open

Candidates:
GOP - Jeff Woolman (R-Davison)
Dem - Pam Faris (D-Clio),

Update 5-26-2012 - Pam Faris is definitely the favorite to win. She's the wife of John Cherry and a former union president herself. Gleason could make it interesting if people think they are voting for John Gleason. I don't know if they are relatives or not, but it could impact things. I never bet against a Cherry in Genesee County.

Update 8-30-2012 - Pam Faris won, but only by 24 votes over Gleason. This could be a sleeper contest with the right candidates in the right year, but I don't bet against a Cherry in Genesee County.

2010 Results - Old District (48th)
Richard Hammel - 28,251
Ralph Burger - 13,703

Old District 50th
Charles Smiley - 13,647
William Ralph - 12,134

All of the Genesse County districts have changed a bit due to population shifts. This district is opened up and was mostly Hammel's old district, with part of Smiley's district as well.

The old 48th covered Clayton Twp, Clio, Flushing City and Twp, Forest Twp, Montrose city and Twp, Mt Morris City and Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp.

The new 48th drops Mt Morris and the City of Flushing to the 49th, Flushing and Clayton Townships to the 51st, and picks up Genesee, Richfield, and Davison City/Twp from the 50th.

The district leans democrat, but could be competitive in a 2010 or 1994 type of year. It doesn't have Burton or Mt Morris anchoring the district, although it's still John Cherry country, and there's still the democrat stronghold of Genesee Township. For the "last state house" portion, I combined the last two state rep races from the 48th and 50th. It's apples to oranges to a degree as one race was competitive and the other not. William Ralph might make this district interesting if he lives here, but I can't bet against the dems here.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clio 384 761 1145 -377 33.54% 66.46% -32.93%
Davison  1053 1625 2678 -572 39.32% 60.68% -21.36%
Davison Twp 4474 5776 10250 -1302 43.65% 56.35% -12.70%
Forest Twp 1089 1516 2605 -427 41.80% 58.20% -16.39%
Genesee Twp 3313 7148 10461 -3835 31.67% 68.33% -36.66%
Montrose  296 471 767 -175 38.59% 61.41% -22.82%
Montrose Twp 1201 1796 2997 -595 40.07% 59.93% -19.85%
Richfield Twp 1911 2890 4801 -979 39.80% 60.20% -20.39%
Thetford Twp 1360 2314 3674 -954 37.02% 62.98% -25.97%
Vienna Twp 2715 4175 6890 -1460 39.40% 60.60% -21.19%



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Total 17796 28472 46268 -10676 38.46% 61.54% -23.07%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clio 533 691 1224 -158 43.55% 56.45% -12.91%
Davison  1317 1540 2857 -223 46.10% 53.90% -7.81%
Davison Twp 4833 5041 9874 -208 48.95% 51.05% -2.11%
Forest Twp 1271 1414 2685 -143 47.34% 52.66% -5.33%
Genesee Twp 3805 7010 10815 -3205 35.18% 64.82% -29.63%
Montrose  349 451 800 -102 43.63% 56.38% -12.75%
Montrose Twp 1365 1643 3008 -278 45.38% 54.62% -9.24%
Richfield Twp 2149 2630 4779 -481 44.97% 55.03% -10.06%
Thetford Twp 1611 2246 3857 -635 41.77% 58.23% -16.46%
Vienna Twp 3083 3851 6934 -768 44.46% 55.54% -11.08%



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Total 20316 26517 46833 -6201 43.38% 56.62% -13.24%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clio 282 391 673 -109 41.90% 58.10% -16.20%
Davison  883 876 1759 7 50.20% 49.80% 0.40%
Davison Twp 3562 2915 6477 647 54.99% 45.01% 9.99%
Forest Twp 829 868 1697 -39 48.85% 51.15% -2.30%
Genesee Twp 2538 3563 6101 -1025 41.60% 58.40% -16.80%
Montrose  221 281 502 -60 44.02% 55.98% -11.95%
Montrose Twp 844 984 1828 -140 46.17% 53.83% -7.66%
Richfield Twp 1541 1536 3077 5 50.08% 49.92% 0.16%
Thetford Twp 971 1218 2189 -247 44.36% 55.64% -11.28%
Vienna Twp 1904 2376 4280 -472 44.49% 55.51% -11.03%



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Total 13575 15008 28583 -1433 47.49% 52.51% -5.01%

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