MI-08 - Mike Rogers endorses Bishop and the latest

There's a lot of crap stirring going on out there with this race and a lot of conspiracy theories I'm hearing about. Some of that is being pushed by the dems. That's not a surprise. They want a split party with this primary. Some of it is pushed by those with axes to grind against certain individuals. Some of it is those who want to put strong candidate or potential candidates and their teams against each other to open things up for an alternative.

From the Argus:

U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Howell, on Monday endorsed former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop of Rochester to be his replacement in Congress next year.

This should be read no more and no less than what it is. Mike Rogers and Mike Bishop served together in Lansing. They are friends. Mike didn't serve with Joe Hune or Bryan Barnett.

“We have two good people running so far,” county GOP Chairman Dan Wholihan said. Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett has announced his candidacy for the party’s nod for the seat.

“If Senator Hune runs, we’ll have a third good person as well,” Wholihan said.
“I’m biased, being a Livingston County guy, so I’d like to a have a good candidate out of Livingston County personally, but we have several good people running and I don’t think any of the two running, or if Senator Hune runs, would do a bad job,” Wholihan added.
He said he’ll support the party’s nominee regardless if that person is Joe Hune.

I didn't like the phrasing of "regardless if that person is Joe Hune" as it is contradicting sounding. My exact comment I believe was "regardless of who wins."  While being a Chair tempers my advocacy to a degree, everybody know who I'm voting for if a certain candidate runs. At the same time, that's not to say that I'd be voting against the other two or whomever else runs. This would be a race between "Good" and "Best." If Bishop or Barnett is the nominee, I'd have no problems voting for them.  

I doubt this would factor one way or the other on what Joe Hune decides. Hune is a grass roots candidate who won by knocking on doors of voters. He has the information he needs to make his decision and is discussing that with his family.

But state Sen. Rick Jones, R-Grand Ledge, said he will endorse Hune if Hune decides to run, regardless of the GOP candidate list.Jones and Hune served three two-year terms together in the state House before serving together in the Senate. Jones said Hune has shown leadership on agricultural and insurance issues and would be a perfect fit in Washington, D.C.

Much like how Bishop and Mike Rogers served together, so do Rick Jones and Joe Hune. It speaks well of candidates when colleagues step up to the plate.  I've worked with Joe's office several times going back to 2002. Good work is done there.

Judy Daubenmier, chairwoman of the county Democratic Party, said Rogers has chosen to “meddle” in the GOP primary for his office. Daubenmier questioned if Rogers was attempting to eliminate Hune as a “tea party” alternative to a more mainstream Republican.

She said Rogers’ endorsement suggests Rogers has little confidence in Hune despite being a fellow county resident serving with Rogers’ brother, state Rep. Bill Rogers, R-Genoa Township, in Lansing.
“It certainly looks like he is trying to hand-pick his successor rather than let the voters have their say first. It smacks of a bid to push Hune out of the race before he even has decided whether to get into it,” Daubenmier said.
“It’s also surprising that Joe Hune is held in such low regard by a fellow Livingston County Republican, given that he serves in the county’s legislative delegation alongside Mike Rogers’ brother,” she added.

That's wishful thinking. There's nothing better the dems want than a split party and a nasty primary.

Wholihan said he doesn’t foresee a “tea party” rift in the GOP nomination for the seat. He said Bishop demonstrated the fiscal responsibility “tea party” Republicans demanded while serving in Lansing.Wholihan said many “tea party” Republicans supported Bishop over now-state Attorney General Bill Schuette in Bishop’s 2010 state attorney general campaign.

The tea party groups like Joe Hune. They split their votes between Mike Bishop and Bill Schuette back in 2010. I don't know how they felt about Bryan Barnett, but anyone who gets 77% of the vote doesn't do it by accident. "Establishment" people like Joe Hune. They split their votes between Mike Bishop and Bill Schuette. Oakland County establishment like Bryan Barnett quite a bit.

There's no coronation here. Mike Rogers has his opinion. I like Mike, but it doesn't affect my opinion one way or another. I'd like to see a candidate go after the spending and not raise taxes. I know for a fact that Joe Hune will do that.

There still may be more candidates. I've heard two or three more Oakland County individuals may run, along with someone who lives just outside the district. Things aren't in stone here. 

MI-08 - Who's going to be my next Congressman?

Update 3-31-14 - Former State Senator Mike Bishop and Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett, both from the Rochester area are running. 

A new era is beginning here in the 8th District. 

(Full disclosure, I did some work for Sen. Joe Hune in his 2010 campaign)

With Mike Rogers retiring, things have significantly changed here. The 8th District leans Republican, but isn't a safe district with Mike Rogers retiring. It went for the dems at the top of the ticket in 2006 and 2008, and went for the Republicans in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, and 2012. I went over the presidential numbers in depth here and explored an open possibility here. I'm not going to rehash the presidential numbers much or the top of the ticket numbers much here. In an Republican year, we win. In a neutral year, we probably win, but candidate quality will matter more. In a bad year, we better have a damn good candidate. The top of the ticket will have its own variables. We have to control what we control, and that means voting for a good candidate in this August primary, whomever it may be.

There's a lot of rumors going on about candidates who are and who aren't running. I'm not going to do a lot of speculation except  to say that oftentimes the national reporters don't have any idea what they are talking about. If the person doesn't live in the district or have ties to the district, the person won't be a serious candidate more than likely. Especially if the districts don't all run together (like the Bloomfield area in the 9th, 11th, and 14th). The 8th isn't like that outside of a small part of Rochester Hills which is in both districts (mostly in the 8th).

Politics 1 mentions Saul Anuzis, Bryan Barnett, Mike Bishop, Mike Bouchard, Craig DeRoche, Gail Haines, Joe Hune, Rick Jones, Jim Marleau, Tom McMillin, Barb Byrum, Sam Singh, and Peter Spadafore as possible candidates (In addition to the two announced dems Ken Darga and Susan Grettenberger).  There was very little research done there and by the national press. Mike Bouchard and Craig DeRoche both live in the 11th District nowhere near the 8th. Birmingham and Novi. Jones is in Grand Ledge, in the 7th District. He's never represented any of the 8th. Gail Haines is in the 11th, and only represents a small part of the 8th. I don't expect many of those to be serious contenders. This is not a carpetbagging friendly area, especially away from Oakland County. One better have some good ties here at minimum. Bill Rogers has announced he's not running. Joe Hune and Mike Bishop are significant names who would be contenders if they choose to run.  They are considering. Saul Anuzis who lives in Lansing (although the Eaton County side - barely) announced he is considering.  Bryan Barnett (Rochester Hills Mayor) has apparently announced he's running.  If Brad Jacobsen, Tom McMillin, or Jim Marleau run, they certainly can't be counted out. I have not heard interest expressed by them, but this is a very recent announcement. On the dem side, I expect Barb Byrum to run. The other names I've heard there are sacrificial lamb candidates. Byrum would be a tougher candidate.

The filing deadline is April 22nd. This is significant. I'll be real blunt here. There's a petition requirement of 1000 valid signatures. That means 1500-2000 are more likely needed, and not "McCotter campaign staff" style. That means there isn't much time.  Three weeks. Whoever jumps in now has to have serious organization, or the ability to raise enough money to hire petition circulators.  Anyone that doesn't have instant organization to do that is wasting their time, their money, staff time,  and volunteer time.  I don't want to lose this seat to a democrat. The easiest way to see that happen is for there to be poor organization on the R side and a bad candidate due to that.

So who would be the strongest candidates?

That's a question where we would need an educated guess. I'm going to look at four potential Republican candidates for now in alphabetical order as these the names I've heard the most.  Saul Anuzis. Bryan Barnett. Mike Bishop. Joe Hune.  On the dem side, the only potential with any chance that I can see at this point is Barb Byrum. (Gretchen Whitmer isn't running).

I'll start with the democrat, Byrum. Barb Byrum won three races in a borderline swing/slightly democrat district in Ingham County, along with the Ingham County Clerk position. Byrum's old district, the old HD-67 covers rural Ingham County, Mason, Delhi Township, and Southwest Lansing.  I believe she's in the Mason or Leslie area. Dianne represented Onondaga. The Byrums have some strength in rural Ingham County, although their real base in the portion of Lansing in their district. This is the least democrat state rep district in the county, as the other two districts are all of Lansing or overwhelmingly East Lansing/Meridian Twp based.
Unfortunately, most of the analysis is through wave elections (06, 08, 10) so it's of limited use. However, Byrum probably has to match 2006 Granholm or 2008 Obama numbers to have a chance to win. 

Overall, she'll need to get numbers similar to Obama/Granholm in 06/08 if she's going to have a good shot winning. That means about 57% or better in the district. Mike Rogers always won this state rep district.  Byrum got about 58-59% in 2006 and 63% in 2008. 2010 was a scare for her, but she survived. 2012 was countywide and she got 68%. Lansing turnout will be the biggest key for her.

Saul Anuzis has never held elected office. He's been a Legislative Chief of Staff, a consultant, a State Party Chair, and an RNC Committeeman. He's been very active behind the scenes, but this would be new territory. 

I don't know much about Bryan Barnett. He won his Rochester Hills mayoral election easily in 2011. 77.29% to 22.46%. He won in 2007 with a similar margin.  Most of Rochester Hills is in the 8th District, but only as of the 2012 election. It's a big jump from mayor to Congress, even in a city of 71,000. It's slightly smaller than a state rep district.

Mike Bishop is former Senate Majority Leader and State Rep. He ran for St Senate in 2002 and 2006 winning easily. He ran for AG at a convention and lost a tight race to Bill Schuette. No shame there.  He lost to Jessica Cooper in the 2012 election for prosecutor by 5%. Straight tickets in places like Pontiac and Southfield did him in. The area he lost was not in the 8th district.
Bishop had mostly wave elections as well during his career, although 2000 and 2002 weren't waves.  In 1998, John Engler was an incumbent and had Geoffrey Fieger  as an opponent. Todd Akin post gaffe would win against Fieger.  Bishop ran 5% behind Engler, but got 70%+ in his district.
In 2000, he ran 8-10% better than Bush across the board. Nothing overlapped with Mike Rogers as none of his district at the time was in the 8th. Bishop was in the 1990's incarnation of HD-45 which was Addison Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, Oakland Twp, Rochester, and part of Rochester Hills. It was a blood red district and still is today. North Oakland outside of Holly Twp is as Republican as Livingston County (Rochester area less R, but still safe)

In 2002, Bishop ran for State Senate and won.  SD-15 at the time has much of the North Oakland part now in the 8th at the same period. The district has Addison Twp,  Clarkston, Independence Twp, Oakland Twp (now 8th, wasn't then), Orion Twp, Oxford Twp,  Rochester (now 8th, wasn't then) , and Rochester Hills (most now in 8th, wasn't then).  It also had Auburn Hills, Keego Harbor, Lake Angelus, Pontiac, and Sylvan Lake which is in other districts. He ran ahead of Posthumus  across the board, by major numbers outside of Pontiac. He ran slightly ahead of Mike Rogers (1-2%) in most of the district outside of Independence and Clarkston which was within 1%.

2006 was a bad year, but Bishop won easily, albeit with 56% instead of 62%. He ran well ahead of DeVos outside of Pontiac and Keego Harbor, and by 10%+ better in his home turf of Rochester/Rochester Hills. Like 2002, he ran slightly ahead of Rogers outside of Independence/Clarkston (less than 1% variation). Pontiac is a straight ticket graveyard without base areas outvoting it. Auburn Hills is tough territory. They don't matter in the 8th.
2012 was a little different. Bishop ran slightly ahead of Romney in the 8th District part of the district when going for prosecutor. He ran behind Rogers across the board outside of Rochester and Clarkston. That's due to Rogers facing Lance Enderle who was a sacrificial lamb. Bishop challenged a strong incumbent in Jessica Cooper (was a judge before prosecutor).  Not surprising, Bishop was much stronger in the Eastern part of Oakland County in the 8th district.  Here's a map, because it has probably the best comparisons. The red is where he ran ahead of Romney by over 2%. The  "dark salmon" is where he ran ahead by 0-2%. The light blue is where he ran behind by 0-2%. He didn't run behind Romney anywhere by a significant margin.



This is the only time where Bishop was held to what is slightly better than "generic R." Bishop got 59.92% in North Oakland compared to Romney's 58.35% (and Rogers 63.42%). Even so, he's still quite strong in Orion Twp, Oakland Twp, and the Rochester area. That's his base.

The last potential  candidate here is Joe Hune.  In 2002, Livingston County went big for Republicans overall.  Rogers was at his height in popularity, and also had a D- opponent.  Hune ran well behind Rogers in his first race - except in his home base of Handy Twp where he ran ahead of even Mike Rogers breaking 80% there.  Hune running 7% behind Mike Rogers isn't to be confused that with weakness. Hune won the general election with 68% to Rogers  75%. Both ran ahead of the top of the ticket by significant margins. Posthumus  got 61.28%, Hune 68.85%, and Rogers 75.85%. 

In 2004, Hune has his best year by percentage. He ran 9% ahead of Bush, and even ahead of Rogers, although by less than 1%. He ran strongly ahead of Bush everyone. The red is where he ran  ahead of Rogers by 2%. The black is where he ran ahead by 5% or more. The "dark salmon" is where he ran ahead 0-2%.  Light blue is where Rogers ran 0-2% ahead. The blue is where Rogers ran 3-5%+ Keep in mind that in his weaker areas, he still ran well ahead of Bush - and Bush won the district with 61.85%. Hune and Rogers  broke 70%.



2006 was a rougher year. DeVos was held to 55.82% in the district. Hune had 61.56% and Rogers 62.15%. He didn't run ahead of Rogers this time, but here's the map with the same codes.



2010 was a wave year and Rogers and Snyder both got over 71%. Hune ran behind them a bit for an open seat (ran almost even in his base area), but still got almost 68%. Rogers is originally from Brighton Township, so that factors into the difference with Rogers.  This is the first time Hune represented that part of the county. 

Again, the thing to remember is that Mike Rogers is generally the gold standard of Republican electoral performance in this district. In all except one race, Mike Bishop ran well ahead of the ticket. In all races, except the 2010 wave, Joe Hune ran well ahead of the ticket.  Neither of these two would drag down the ticket. This is not measuring "weakness", but extra strength needed to go into a congressional run in case of trouble against a democrat. 

If Hune, Bishop, Anuzis, Barnett, or someone else gets numbers ahead of the top of the ticket in a neutral or wave election, we'll be fine. If we have someone that underperforms, we're in trouble. 

The announcement about Rogers not running is two days ago, so there's a lot of behind the scenes rumors, measuring, jockeying, and organization going on right now. There is not a major window with the quick filing deadline. Expect some decisions to be made fast, and for a lot of people to get behind a candidate (or two) quickly so this person gets on the ballot. 


Let's hope for a good clean primary with minimum mudslinging, and hope the best candidate wins.

Mike Rogers retiring (MI-8)

This caught me offguard. I'll have more about the fallout later.

Thanks for the time you put in, Mike. Thank your staffers for putting up with my calls. Good luck in your new career.

From WHMI:

Rogers Will Not Seek Re-Election; Heading to Radio

3/28/14 - Seven-term Republican Congressman Mike Rogers of Howell says he won't seek re-election. The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee announced his plans this morning and says he'll serve out the end of his term and plans to start a national radio program. In a statement released by his office today, Rogers said, “It has been an honor to serve the people of Michigan's eighth congressional district over the last 14 years. We have accomplished so much together, and I am most proud of our work to turn the House Intelligence Committee into a true legislative and oversight body. But I have always believed in our founder's idea of a citizen legislature. I had a career before politics and always planned to have one after. The genius of our institutions is they are not dependent on the individual temporary occupants privileged to serve. That is why I have decided not to seek re-election to Congress in 2014. As I close this chapter in my life, I am excited to begin a new one that allows me to continue serving as a voice for American exceptionalism and support a strong nation security policy agenda.” Rogers said he’ll start in January as a nationally syndicated radio show host at Cumulus Radio. The 50-year-old Rogers was elected to Michigan's 8th District in 2000, has been a frequent critic of the Obama Administration during many appearances on Sunday morning talk shows, although he was briefly floated as a potential CIA director nominee following Obama’s 2012 reelection victory. Rogers has also formed a good relationship with Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger of Maryland, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee. The pair have been staunch defenders of the controversial NSA surveillance programs disclosed by former contractor Edward Snowden. But Rogers and Ruppersberger also recently offered legislation ending NSA bulk collection program for phone calls and other agency reforms. The youngest of five sons, Rogers graduated from Adrian College in 1985, served as an officer in U.S. Army and then became an FBI agent before winning a seat in the Michigan Senate in 1995, rising to majority floor leader in 1999. He ran for the first of his seven terms in Congress the following year. (JK)

Congressional District 8 Updated 2013 (MI-08)

We got two major primaries here on both sides, so this is going to be interesting. Joe Hune running for State Senate eliminated a chance of my next congressman being from my county. The Rochester area will have our nominee. Barnett is the Rochester Hills Mayor and has a lot of Oakland County establishment support. Mike Bishop has Mike Rogers support and opened up an office in Livingston County. Tom McMillin has a lot of tea party and libertarian support.While Oakland will have our next nominee, the road to run runs through Livingston County.

On the dem side, Schertzing was recruited by the dem establishment. They wanted Whitmer or Byrum, but both declined. The other three candidates for them are sacrificial lambs.

MI-08 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Open with Mike Rogers retirement
Years in office as of 2014 election – 14

Challengers – Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills) Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing)

2012:

Mike Rogers – 202217 – 58.60%

Lance Enderle  – 128657 – 37.29%

73560 vote difference

Romney – 183240 votes – 51.10%

Obama – 171684 votes – 47.87%

11556 vote difference.

2008: (Approx)

McCain – 176239 votes – 46.38%

Obama – 197572 votes – 51.97%

-21243 vote difference

2004: (approx)

Bush – 195830 votes – 54.28%

Kerry –161383 votes – 44.73%

34447 vote difference

Note  - Rochester Hills renamed precincts between 08 and 12 so I’m estimating 04 and 08.

This district is a swing district that is a battle of the strongholds. It combines the 4^th most democrat county in the state with the 3^rd or 4^th most republican county in the state and some of the most republican part of Oakland County. The keys here are to win your areas big and reduce the margins in the other base. It’s a Captain Obvious statement, but it is easier said than done. Base problems here can destroy your chances, as can alienating the swing voters.

Mike Rogers does a good job at striking that balance. He’s actually won Ingham County in the past, even once winning Lansing itself. He also runs ahead of everyone in Livingston County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012:

2008:

2004:

Ingham County is usually the 4^th most democrat county in the state behind Genesee, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties in that order. Kerry won it with 57.78% and by 22143 votes. Obama in 08 with 65.86% and 47511 votes, and Obama in 2012 with 63.43% and 35541 votes.  In 2004, Ingham was 36.88% of the district vote. In 08, it was 37.54% of the vote. In 2012, it was 35.54% of the vote.  Key base areas for the dems here are Lansing, Lansing Township, East Lansing, and Meridian Township (Okemos and Haslett) Lansing and Meridian Township alone make up about ½ of the county voters. Lansing is a mix of UAW, government related workers, minorities, and college students (MSU, Cooley, LCC). Lansing Township has historically been more auto-related in one part, and MSU related on the other. East Lansing is MSU and also government workers commuting to Lansing. It is usually the most democrat part of the district, although Lansing was this election. Meridian Township to the east of East Lansing is where a lot of MSU professors life, as do some students. The vote deficits we had to make up with those four places alone are as follows - 35839 in 2012, 45528 in 2008, and 27047 in 2004. That’s not easy to do.

There’s four swing areas in this county that are key. Delhi Twp (Holt), Mason, Leslie, and Williamston.  They are all areas with a lot of Lansing commuters and can be won by either side. Bush won them all in 04. Obama won them all twice.  In an open seat for this district – if the R’s win all of them, this district is safe. If all of them are lost, it’s going to be a nervous night. The Southern and Eastern outer portions of the county often lean R, but not always. The Byrums are from Onondaga, own a store in Stockbridge, and run ahead of the ticket. That area is independent, and a bad showing there (like 08) makes things very scary district wide.  If we keep the dems under 60%, we have the district. If we keep them under 57%, we have  good chance winning statewide.

East of there is my home. Livingston County.  This county is highly educated, strongly conservative, pro-business, and is distrustful of big city politics. Being an hour or less from Detroit, Flint, Lansing, or Ann Arbor, that’s to be expected. By Oakland  County or Ann Arbor standards, this is “past civilization.” We like it that way. There’s a strong 2^nd Amendment , tea party, libertarian, and pro-life movement here, but there are also more pro-choice republicans than one would expect in a county where RTL is very strong. This area wasn’t as social conservative in the 90’s. The MEA is also fairly strong here considering how Republican this county is. The magic number for us percentage wise is about 63%. If we break 63%, we have a good chance of winning statewide. If we’re under 60%, it’s going to be bad. Mike Rogers always runs extremely well here. In bad years or bad candidates, R’s are sometimes held to 53-55%. McCain was held to 55.79%. In 04, Livingston’s 62.90% and 24969 vote spread was able to counterpunch Ingham County on its own. 08 was a whooping. McCain barely made a dent in Ingham’s vote spread. 2012 was a recovery of sorts as Romney set the highwater mark for raw votes and got the percentage up to 61.10%. That’s better than Bush 2000 and McCain. That still isn’t good enough. It made a good dent in Ingham’s spread, but not enough. There’s no real dem base here enough to cause a threat without special circumstances. Candidate quality is always key and can change things, but generic R always smashes generic D here 60-40 in normal November elections. Dems have some strength in nonpartisan races here, and are strong in small pockets of the county (a handful of precincts they sometime win). Usually it’s either places with apartment complexes and/or where a lot of teachers live. The MEA is the base of the dems in these parts. In our worst years, Brighton, Howell, Putnam Twp, Unadilla Twp, and maybe Hamburg Twp can flip narrowly. Usually they are around the 54/55% R range. In good years, those same areas can go for close to 60% R  Most of the county is blood red, less so in the incorporated cities, and less so near the Washtenaw County line. Down the road, who knows? Nobody saw Oakland County going for democrats back in 1984. Livingston County is still growing, and it is our job to educate new residents why this is a great place to live, and part of that is due to our longtime local conservative and republican leadership. Do we have threats on the horizon? Absolutely. Novi’s six miles from the county line and used to be as Republican as we are. Now it’s 50/50. I’m not taking anything for granted.

East of here is Oakland County. While Oakland is purplish to blue overall, this part of Oakland County is not much different than Livingston County in its voting behavior. Holly is competitive, but that’s about it. A lot of these areas vote about 60%R. Rochester and Rochester Hills are causes for concern with migration however. Independence Township is blood red and a base area. Most of this area is base republican and some of it is even rural which isn’t what one expects in Oakland County. This is much of the R base in Oakland County. This is mainstream conservative country, much like Livingston County.

Overall this district is largely heavily blue or red. There isn’t a lot of in-between. Mike Rogers wins big because he keeps his base, racks up large margins in Livingston and North Oakland, and does respectable (sometimes winning) in Ingham County. He even won Meridian Township last election, along with all the swing areas like Delhi Twp and Mason. That’s the blueprint for making this a “safe” district for an incumbent. Is there a way the dems can take this district? Yes. Holding the R’s to 55% in Livingston and 54% in Oakland, while racking up big margins in Ingham County as in 2008 will do that. Could that happen again? Yes, with poor candidate quality. That’s our challenge if Mike Rogers runs for Senate. 

District 8	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Ingham County
Alaiedon Twp	954	837	1818	117	52.48%	46.04%
Aurelius Twp	1192	980	2199	212	54.21%	44.57%
Bunker Hill Twp	498	445	952	53	52.31%	46.74%
Delhi Twp	5916	7364	13419	-1448	44.09%	54.88%
East Lansing	4560	11764	16487	-7204	27.66%	71.35%
Ingham Twp	720	510	1250	210	57.60%	40.80%
Lansing	11087	33661	45253	-22574	24.50%	74.38%
Lansing Twp	1260	2606	3918	-1346	32.16%	66.51%
Leroy Twp	999	735	1749	264	57.12%	42.02%
Leslie	351	391	755	-40	46.49%	51.79%
Leslie Twp	677	550	1244	127	54.42%	44.21%
Locke Twp	589	425	1026	164	57.41%	41.42%
Mason	1806	2057	3895	-251	46.37%	52.81%
Meridian Twp	8262	12977	21402	-4715	38.60%	60.63%
Onondaga Twp	735	706	1460	29	50.34%	48.36%
Stockbridge Twp	970	777	1772	193	54.74%	43.85%
Vevay Twp	1097	863	1975	234	55.54%	43.70%
Wheatfield Twp	587	429	1026	158	57.21%	41.81%
White Oak Twp	339	242	588	97	57.65%	41.16%
Williamston	987	1003	2010	-16	49.10%	49.90%
Williamstown Twp	1720	1525	3265	195	52.68%	46.71%
Total	45306	80847	127463	-35541	35.54%	63.43%
Livingston County
Brighton	2201	1828	4065	373	54.15%	44.97%
Brighton Twp	6964	3833	10903	3131	63.87%	35.16%
Cohoctah Twp	1042	539	1593	503	65.41%	33.84%
Conway Twp	1059	593	1671	466	63.38%	35.49%
Deerfield Twp	1417	797	2242	620	63.20%	35.55%
Genoa Twp	7186	3925	11224	3261	64.02%	34.97%
Green Oak Twp	6037	3888	10020	2149	60.25%	38.80%
Hamburg Twp	6918	5153	12185	1765	56.77%	42.29%
Handy Twp	2058	1425	3524	633	58.40%	40.44%
Hartland Twp	5143	2656	7880	2487	65.27%	33.71%
Howell	2249	1753	4079	496	55.14%	42.98%
Howell Twp	2146	1330	3520	816	60.97%	37.78%
Iosco Twp	1169	627	1818	542	64.30%	34.49%
Marion Twp	3620	1970	5635	1650	64.24%	34.96%
Oceola Twp	4108	2212	6389	1896	64.30%	34.62%
Putnam Twp	2369	1933	4353	436	54.42%	44.41%
Tyrone Twp	3496	2044	5602	1452	62.41%	36.49%
Unadilla Twp	901	710	1634	191	55.14%	43.45%
Total	60083	37216	98337	22867	61.10%	37.85%
Oakland County (pt)
Addison Twp	2302	1215	3564	1087	64.59%	34.09%
Brandon Twp	4552	3213	7850	1339	57.99%	40.93%
Clarkston	329	261	595	68	55.29%	43.87%
Groveland Twp	1864	1117	3007	747	61.99%	37.15%
Holly Twp	2752	2604	5433	148	50.65%	47.93%
Independence Twp	11841	7428	19484	4413	60.77%	38.12%
Oakland Twp	6663	3317	10051	3346	66.29%	33.00%
Orion Twp	11009	7644	18889	3365	58.28%	40.47%
Oxford Twp	6274	4058	10443	2216	60.08%	38.86%
Rochester	3930	3019	7015	911	56.02%	43.04%
Rochester Hills 1-8	509	301	815	208	62.45%	36.93%
Rochester Hills 1-14	986	675	1641	311	60.09%	41.13%
Rochester Hills 1-17	984	756	1752	228	56.16%	43.15%
RH 1-22	583	440	1033	143	56.44%	42.59%
RH 1-23	509	479	994	30	51.21%	48.19%
RH 1-26	1253	724	1981	529	63.25%	36.55%
RH 1-29	489	308	800	181	61.13%	38.50%
RH 2-4	475	478	961	-3	49.43%	49.74%
RH 2-7	465	386	856	79	54.32%	45.09%
RH 2-9	1028	754	1797	274	57.21%	41.96%
RH 2-10	661	526	1194	135	55.36%	44.05%
RH 2-18	704	422	1146	282	61.43%	36.82%
RH 2-19	696	414	1118	282	62.25%	37.03%
RH 2-21	835	458	1303	377	64.08%	35.15%
RH 2-25	1060	619	1690	441	62.72%	36.63%
RH 2-32	670	561	1241	109	53.99%	45.21%
RH 3-1	791	681	1493	110	52.98%	45.61%
RH 3-12	866	658	1537	208	56.34%	42.81%
RH 3-16	787	670	1473	117	53.43%	45.49%
RH 3-24	673	552	1229	121	54.76%	44.91%
RH 3-31	489	448	943	41	51.86%	47.51%
RH 4-5	720	635	1371	85	52.52%	46.32%
RH 4-11	443	550	1007	-107	43.99%	54.62%
RH 4-15	373	479	864	-106	43.17%	55.44%
RH 4-20	415	420	838	-5	49.52%	50.12%
RH 4-27	615	550	1174	65	52.39%	46.85%
RH 4-28	548	800	1361	-252	40.26%	58.78%
RH 4-30	759	782	1553	-23	48.87%	50.35%
Rose Twp	2024	1441	3517	583	57.55%	40.97%
Springfield Twp	4925	2778	7809	2147	63.07%	35.57%
Total	77851	53621	132822	24230	58.61%	40.37%
Total All	183240	171684	358622	11556	51.10%	47.87%

Congressional District 8 - Redistricted (MI-08)

Incumbent - Mike Rogers (R-Brighton/Howell)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 12
The old 8th District information is here

Challengers -  Lance Enderle (D-Lansing),

Update 8-30-2012 - Mike won his primary and will rematch with Lance Enderle in the general.

UPDATE - 5-1-2012 - Lance Enderle for the dems is running in a rematch of the 2010 matchup. Enderle unlike last election has been the candidate from the start instead of replacing a quitter who dropped when he wasn't getting the funding he thought he would get.

UPDATE 5-16-2012 - Michael Magdich is a Wayne County recent transplant who wants to give us Wayne County politics. In addition Molnar (unless it is another Vernon Molnar) ran against John Gleason in another district. Hetrick I'm not familiar with, outside of hearing that name before somewhere.


The old 8th district had to actually shrink people because it was fast growing and other areas dropped their population. It dropped Clinton and Shiawassee Counties, giving them back to Dave Camp. It picked up Oakland Township, the rest of Orion Township, Rochester, and most of Rochester Hills in Oakland County. That was picked up from Gary Peters.

The old district had about a 29000 vote spread for Bush and about a 26000 vote spread for Obama. The new district had about a 34000 vote spread for Bush and 21000 vote spread for Obama. I think it's actually slightly tougher for Mike though since he always ran well in Clinton and Shiawassee Counties and is giving those areas up.

I'm putting up the 08 numbers for Mike instead of 2010. The dems in 2010 for this district were an absolute joke. Kande Ngalamulume was the original opponent. He ran, and then whined and quit when major financial support did not immediately go his way. He didn't show that he was stronger than Bob Alexander or Jim Marcinkowski. Nglamulume and his campaign manager didn't like that so they whined about the lack of support, quit, and moved backed to Pennsylvania. He still won the primary against a write in candidate by Lande Enderle. Enderle actually wasn't a joke and did the best he could in a no-win situation. Eventually due to Nglamulume's move, Enderle was able to get on the ballot as a replacement although there wasn't much time for a candidacy.

Any district with Lansing, East Lansing, and Okemos together is never going to be truly safe for a Republican. Any district with North Oakland and Livingston County together is never going to be safe for a democrat. North Oakland is like the old Oakland County of the 80's. Livingston County hasn't voted for a democrat countywide since Frank Kelley in either 1990 or 1986.

Under the old district, North Oakland had a 19000 vote spread for Bush and 9000 spread for McCain. Livingston was almost 25000 and 14000. Ingham County outside of the Lansing area is competitive. It had a 6500 vote spread for Bush and about a 300 vote spread for Obama. The Lansing area however was about a 26000 vote spread for Kerry and almost 48000 vote spread for Obama. To win this district you have to rack up big numbers with the base votes, and also reduce your opponent's base. Rogers runs well in Ingham County, specifically the rural areas and to a lesser extent, Lansing. In 2008, Rogers lost the Lansing area by less than half of what McCain did and won the new portion district with about 45000 votes to spare.

The only way I see Rogers not running for re-election in this district is if he's bumped off the Intelligence Committee. That's the one he wanted for years. If he runs for senate or governor, he'll have to give up his chairmanship of the committee. I don't think he wants to do that. If this seat opens up there's no shortage of strong candidates. On the GOP side, Joe Hune, Bill Rogers, Jim Marleau, Cindy Denby, and Ruth Johnson could win this. On the dems side, Virg Bernero, Gretchen Whitmer, Dianne or Barb Byrum, or Dave Hollister could be a threat.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ingham County	46483	93994	140477	-47511	33.09%	66.91%	-33.82%
Livingston County	55592	42349	97941	13243	56.76%	43.24%	13.52%
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Addison Twp	2248	1339	3587	909	62.67%	37.33%	25.34%
Brandon Twp	4834	3564	8398	1270	57.56%	42.44%	15.12%
Clarkston City	298	252	550	46	54.18%	45.82%	8.36%
Groveland Twp	1769	1275	3044	494	58.11%	41.89%	16.23%
Holly Twp	2678	2969	5647	-291	47.42%	52.58%	-5.15%
Independence Twp	11000	8253	19253	2747	57.13%	42.87%	14.27%
Oakland Twp	5965	3679	9644	2286	61.85%	38.15%	23.70%
Orion Twp	10042	8512	18554	1530	54.12%	45.88%	8.25%
Oxford Twp	5836	4484	10320	1352	56.55%	43.45%	13.10%
Rochester	3515	3319	6834	196	51.43%	48.57%	2.87%
Rochester Hills (part)	19919	18834	38753	1085	51.40%	48.60%	2.80%
Rose Twp	1936	1573	3509	363	55.17%	44.83%	10.34%
Springfield Twp	4654	3176	7830	1478	59.44%	40.56%	18.88%
Total	176769	197572	374341	-20803	47.22%	52.78%	-5.56%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ingham County	54734	76877	131611	-22143	41.59%	58.41%	-16.82%
Livingston County	58860	33991	92851	24869	63.39%	36.61%	26.78%
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Addison Twp	2406	1113	3519	1293	68.37%	31.63%	36.74%
Brandon Twp	4852	3030	7882	1822	61.56%	38.44%	23.12%
Clarkston City	322	252	574	70	56.10%	43.90%	12.20%
Groveland Twp	1988	1204	3192	784	62.28%	37.72%	24.56%
Holly Twp	2813	2442	5255	371	53.53%	46.47%	7.06%
Independence Twp	12199	6847	19046	5352	64.05%	35.95%	28.10%
Oakland Twp	6212	2898	9110	3314	68.19%	31.81%	36.38%
Orion Twp	11362	6887	18249	4475	62.26%	37.74%	24.52%
Oxford Twp	6155	3577	9732	2578	63.24%	36.76%	26.49%
Rochester	3979	2647	6626	1332	60.05%	39.95%	20.10%
Rochester Hills (part)	22733	15571	38304	7162	59.35%	40.65%	18.70%
Rose Twp	2139	1337	3476	802	61.54%	38.46%	23.07%
Springfield Twp	4946	2710	7656	2236	64.60%	35.40%	29.21%
Total	195700	161383	357083	34317	54.81%	45.19%	9.61%
2008
	Rogers	Alexander	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ingham County	60867	72386	133253	-11519	45.68%	54.32%	-8.64%
Livingston County	63946	29186	93132	34760	68.66%	31.34%	37.32%
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Addison Twp	2310	940	3250	1370	71.08%	28.92%	42.15%
Brandon Twp	4504	2693	7197	1811	62.58%	37.42%	25.16%
Clarkston City	344	179	523	165	65.77%	34.23%	31.55%
Groveland Twp	1813	943	2756	870	65.78%	34.22%	31.57%
Holly Twp	2897	2296	5193	601	55.79%	44.21%	11.57%
Independence Twp	12137	5678	17815	6459	68.13%	31.87%	36.26%
Oakland Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion Twp	8429	4202	12631	4227	66.73%	33.27%	33.47%
Oxford Twp	6088	3237	9325	2851	65.29%	34.71%	30.57%
Rochester			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Rochester Hills (part)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Rose Twp	2093	1122	3215	971	65.10%	34.90%	30.20%
Springfield Twp	4968	2222	7190	2746	69.10%	30.90%	38.19%
Total	170396	125084	295480	45312	57.67%	42.33%	15.34%