Incumbent - Mike Rogers (R-Brighton/Howell)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 12
The old 8th District information is here
Challengers - Lance Enderle (D-Lansing),
Update 8-30-2012 - Mike won his primary and will rematch with Lance Enderle in the general.
UPDATE - 5-1-2012 - Lance Enderle for the dems is running in a rematch of the 2010 matchup. Enderle unlike last election has been the candidate from the start instead of replacing a quitter who dropped when he wasn't getting the funding he thought he would get.
UPDATE 5-16-2012 - Michael Magdich is a Wayne County recent transplant who wants to give us Wayne County politics. In addition Molnar (unless it is another Vernon Molnar) ran against John Gleason in another district. Hetrick I'm not familiar with, outside of hearing that name before somewhere.
The old 8th district had to actually shrink people because it was fast growing and other areas dropped their population. It dropped Clinton and Shiawassee Counties, giving them back to Dave Camp. It picked up Oakland Township, the rest of Orion Township, Rochester, and most of Rochester Hills in Oakland County. That was picked up from Gary Peters.
The old district had about a 29000 vote spread for Bush and about a 26000 vote spread for Obama. The new district had about a 34000 vote spread for Bush and 21000 vote spread for Obama. I think it's actually slightly tougher for Mike though since he always ran well in Clinton and Shiawassee Counties and is giving those areas up.
I'm putting up the 08 numbers for Mike instead of 2010. The dems in 2010 for this district were an absolute joke. Kande Ngalamulume was the original opponent. He ran, and then whined and quit when major financial support did not immediately go his way. He didn't show that he was stronger than Bob Alexander or Jim Marcinkowski. Nglamulume and his campaign manager didn't like that so they whined about the lack of support, quit, and moved backed to Pennsylvania. He still won the primary against a write in candidate by Lande Enderle. Enderle actually wasn't a joke and did the best he could in a no-win situation. Eventually due to Nglamulume's move, Enderle was able to get on the ballot as a replacement although there wasn't much time for a candidacy.
Any district with Lansing, East Lansing, and Okemos together is never going to be truly safe for a Republican. Any district with North Oakland and Livingston County together is never going to be safe for a democrat. North Oakland is like the old Oakland County of the 80's. Livingston County hasn't voted for a democrat countywide since Frank Kelley in either 1990 or 1986.
Under the old district, North Oakland had a 19000 vote spread for Bush and 9000 spread for McCain. Livingston was almost 25000 and 14000. Ingham County outside of the Lansing area is competitive. It had a 6500 vote spread for Bush and about a 300 vote spread for Obama. The Lansing area however was about a 26000 vote spread for Kerry and almost 48000 vote spread for Obama. To win this district you have to rack up big numbers with the base votes, and also reduce your opponent's base. Rogers runs well in Ingham County, specifically the rural areas and to a lesser extent, Lansing. In 2008, Rogers lost the Lansing area by less than half of what McCain did and won the new portion district with about 45000 votes to spare.
The only way I see Rogers not running for re-election in this district is if he's bumped off the Intelligence Committee. That's the one he wanted for years. If he runs for senate or governor, he'll have to give up his chairmanship of the committee. I don't think he wants to do that. If this seat opens up there's no shortage of strong candidates. On the GOP side, Joe Hune, Bill Rogers, Jim Marleau, Cindy Denby, and Ruth Johnson could win this. On the dems side, Virg Bernero, Gretchen Whitmer, Dianne or Barb Byrum, or Dave Hollister could be a threat.
|Rochester Hills (part)||19919||18834||38753||1085||51.40%||48.60%||2.80%|
|Rochester Hills (part)||22733||15571||38304||7162||59.35%||40.65%||18.70%|
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